Forums

Irish Sports

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 124 comments are related to the topic:
punchestown

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 2 of 4  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 124
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 10:10
JP had some festival , which might have caused a little gnashing of teeth in some quarters . 
Very little praise forthcoming on here for some excellent performances from those in his colours , main input concerned those who disappointed ( presumably that's down mainly to pocket talk ). In relation to those  who under performed in light of form and betting markets, one was trained by Henderson , two by O'Brien . Presumably they are part of the conspiracy theories prevalent .
By:
workrider
When: 01 May 16 10:37
Kelly , having been at Punchestown for most of the week ,and  listening around the course ,very few punters hold that outfit in the same high esteem as you seem too . I heard them say, that outfit are non punter friendly .Anyone who deems them otherwise are fooling themselves imo. They care little or nothing about us , we are cannon fodder for them ,the friendiness has all but gone from punters .
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 11:00
High esteem is not a term I would apply to the scene , workrider . I always am in favour of a level playing field  though , so one sided viewpoints dont attract me  , and until someone comes up with positive proof instead of hearsay  they get the benefit of the doubt.  All of the JP horses I backed this week won for me , 3 only , all overpriced in my opinion pre race  , none in handicaps .

I dont back in handicaps ( except extremely rarely ) , particularly those in the cavalry charge category, and most of JP's horses run in handicaps , so I would rarely have a complaint about most of his horses on a pocket basis .

Horses can make fools of us all .  Air Force Blue has been a short price for the 2000 Guneas for the last 6 months , started odds on , finished second last I think , virtually first horse beaten , yet the "vibes" coming from the connections was all good .

When you have as many horses as JP has , punters expecting even a considerable number of them to run exactly to form is a pipe dream . People highlight the ones they want to , forget about the failed "gambles" .  JP does not need the money , its sport for him .  Employing as many trainers as he does leaves a lot of doors open , if I were him I would stick to a couple of tried and trusted trainers , but ultimately that might result in the sport ( particularly NH) becoming completely lob sided .
By:
TheWasp
When: 01 May 16 12:18
I could have sworn you said before that you dont bet on horses anymore kelly just 3 or 4 bets a year I thought, yet low and behold 3 bets 3 winners this week alone.
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 12:28
Backing to trade , the wasp .  You have to read ALL the content of my posts , not just pick out parts of them .  I was tempted though by the 9/4 Jers Girl , laid it back though at considerably less , so it was a nice winner .  Thought about not laying any back .
By:
snap crackle and pop
When: 01 May 16 12:30
It's as simple as this lads, Kelly has the game by the absolute bawlox!
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 12:47
I had dozens of bets this week , the wasp , mostly at Punchestown where there was value betimes  , some firms betting a quarter the odds a place all races .   The 9/4 Jers Girl only lasted 15 minutes , most people will not have seen it unless they were Johnny on the spot .
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 12:53
Snap , crackle , pop , I work at it . And I win .  And I am not greedy . Its out there if you know where to look ,( and where its a waste of time ) , but increasingly its getting harder to find value .  Outside of the big meetings the bookies are running a very tight ship , with the inbuilt benefit of big over rounds on races they know attract attention because of media hype .

Anyone can do it , most cant be bothered for various reasons , I have plenty of time and interest , its just the way the cookie crumbles .
By:
snap crackle and pop
When: 01 May 16 12:56
And you certainly know all the right places to look Kelly!

Game by the absolute short and curlys fella, fair play.
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 13:09
I was out and about each morning around 9.a.m  , having walked the dog etc at 7.a.m , ( sometimes earlier depending on wake up time ).  generally I did not get home until after 3 p.m , racing to start at 3.40 generally ( Punchestown , although there were a few other transactions pre Punchestown  start at other meetings .

Think that entitles me to earn a few bob .  Not every week is like that though , depends on whats available .
By:
snap crackle and pop
When: 01 May 16 13:17
The dog probably unearthed a few good tricasts and forecasts on the morning walks too.

In a league of your own fella.
By:
TheWasp
When: 01 May 16 13:20
So the 3 winners are now 3 trades you couldnt make it up
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 13:52
Trades are winners in my book , the wasp. Little and often , but the bigger the odds the more profit generally as I always keep a few quid or more up my sleeve , sometimes to lay in running .

Dont think I have done a forecast or tricast for last 15 years or more , snap . Picking a winner is hard enough without getting involved in these .
By:
TheWasp
When: 01 May 16 13:56
the 3 green and gold winners you bravely aftertimed were in fact 3 succesful trades ?
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 14:04
Snap , anyone with a brain , time , resources , AND INTEREST , can do what I do . I started on the journey 15 years ago approx , told anyone who listened exactly what I did , and advised them to copy .  Not one did .  My conclusion was that most people are lazy and couldn't be bothered , or had not the time or inclination . I just kept trucking , but its buttons now compared with then .

Sometimes ( most times) you only get one bite at the cherry . Loads missed out I reckon . Anyone could operate now for a limited time , until the books find out and pull up the drawbridge .  Then it might be multiple accounts etc , never did that myself generally ( one or two did some bets for me occasionally , but I didn't want to compromise them long term ) .
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 14:11
The term after timed is designed to indicate certain traits , the wasp , as far as I know my only reference to the 3 JP horses was in this thread . And it was in response to others who said that JP's horse activity was not punter friendly .  It was to me , I left out any others he had this week ( and he had a lot , 9 in one race apparently ) .

People who find it obligatory to try and solve every race no doubt finish up in the poor house , and statistically they will back a lot of JP horses in the course of their travels . I dont . Maybe thats why I am pretty sanguine about his horses activity , they dont cost me money generally .
By:
TheWasp
When: 01 May 16 14:23
so again were the 3 brave winners you aftertimed again winning trades or winning bets?
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 14:29
I am going to have to ignore your posts , the wasp , if you have anything constructive to say you are free to fire away .  Otherwise stop trying to score points .
By:
TheWasp
When: 01 May 16 14:36
thats what i thought kelly hard to keep track of all the waffle, the only surprise for me is you hadnt backed leicester for the premier league aswell
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 14:41
Seldom bet on soccer , it bores me generally . Look up my post re Leicester .
By:
TheWasp
When: 01 May 16 14:48
For a fella who seldom bets on racing nowadays you sure do have a lot of winners after the event of course
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 14:58
I still bet a lot on racing , the wasp , just not for big amounts cause I cant get on . Nowhere did I say I dont bet much on racing , another invention by you . You have to read and interpret the posts ,I cant help it if you dont cop on .
By:
TheWasp
When: 01 May 16 15:19
See irish open thread ive brought up for you kelly
By:
Arklearkle
When: 01 May 16 16:19
I reckon your ass is out on this one Kelly. Youre a good one if you can get out of this. I reckon even the racing appeal board couldnt save you now.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 01 May 16 20:35
F**k me, The Irsh Soros is now
By:
Ozymandius
When: 01 May 16 20:36
telling us at what time he walks his frickin dogCry
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 22:57
3 in a row , the mud throwers are out in force .
By:
Kelly
When: 01 May 16 23:19
Arkle , your post follows on the wasps unbelievably naive interpretation of a factual post , taking part of a line and taking it as evidence that I only indulge in 3 or 4 bets a season . I bet most days , mainly trading , often in running . One objective I have though is to finish up minus on my Betfair account lest the dreaded premium charge ever pops up .Backing winners with the bookies and laying off on here is an integral part of  that  , gives an added edge to winner seeking .

Do you have a dog Ozy ?  If not I recommend it as it gives you time to think things through when communing with nature , and the dog , and other dog walkers who generally are decent people ( and non snipers) .
By:
Tolmi
When: 01 May 16 23:48
You are surpassing yourself tonight Kelly.Your latest reply begs a very obvious question.Would you not be better off financially by not trading at all than trading to make a loss on your Betfair account??

While I am very aware that you much prefer to dispense your wisdom than to accept advice you might permit me to give you a couple of tips...

If you are trading in running without fast pictures you would be better off giving the money to your local charity or buying something nice for your dog.You will not win or in any way improve an already traded position.

Secondly if your description of your trading activities is correct you will never have to worry about premium charge.You either misunderstand the concept of more likely feel the need to try to impress people on here as you try to massage your already inflated ego.You will lose more money by your trading strategies than you could ever pay in premium charge.
By:
Kelly
When: 02 May 16 04:35
Tolmi , when ( or if) I ever start to lose I will accept advice from anyone . Until then I will continue as I have done for 15 years plus on here. When I started on here I was still working full time , and it took me a year to figure out  systems which worked positively .  There was no betting in running then on a lot of events as I recall , particularly on place markets on horse racing which I pushed for with Betfair .They started them , stopped them , and started them again eventually.

Re betting in running I confine my activities to specific sports where there are "natural breaks".  eg  cricket  between overs , golf  , soccer ( discounting the 10 seconds at goal kicks for instance ).  In horse racing 5 furlong sprints are useless , but 3 mile chases or hurdles afford opportunities sometimes . You cant beat the tracksiders ( I never bet in running for instance on tennis unless I suspect someone is injured ), but there are a lot of strange figures which pop up occasionally in running. People  make mistakes.   

I have posted before re avoiding premium charge , for a long number of years I would have been in the firing line , but I took a conscious decision to attempt to go negative and it worked . And you can turn a positive on here into a negative by reversing the figures using another exchange provided you time it right . Does not work all the time , but often enough to make it worth while . Golf is the easiest  , particularly towards the end of a tournament where the markets on here often go over the 100% mark and there is liquidity .  I seldom if ever  bet on womens golf  , no liquidity.

Any activity I indulge in takes time and effort , long hours and study occasionally , most shy away from that effort I suspect .  Nobody is going to put in long hours unless they have something to show at the end of it , and lots of people have jobs to do which occupies them most of the day .

Re trading on horse racing nearly every horse fluctuates by about 20% or more in the course of market movements . If you have a nose for those market movements you can most times winkle out guaranteed profit( small percentage wise) , but you need patience and time  .  Guess its akin to currency trading at which JP makes his money ( or his guys do for him ) .

As I say if I ever fall into a losing habit I will cut and run pronto . I have never been one to chase losses either , learnt that early in life ( well pre exchanges) .  There's always another race / event .

The only thing that worries me is the FPP / Official result scene , have been caught out in that situation  , but it happens seldom and I guess its swings and roundabouts which evens out in the long term .  Seldom a big worry these days as the sums involved are generally nowhere near what they used to be .
By:
Ozymandius
When: 02 May 16 07:46
You have a long winded way of saying very little.

Why not just copy and paste the following:

I am The Oracle.
By:
Tolmi
When: 02 May 16 08:16
Pretty typical response Kelly.Lenghty and verbose with plenty of self praise even managing to work in a JP comparison!!

However as usual you totally failed to address the points raised.Why trade to lose money?Anyone with even a modicum of intelligence can see that you would be better off not trading at all than losing money by trading?

I repeat my earlier assertion.You have absolutely zero chance of being liable for premium charge with the betting style you have.You would be some man if you could consistently beat the odds with the bookies and also trade back on here to have potential premium charge.

But then again you are some man.
By:
Kelly
When: 02 May 16 09:25
Tolmi , if you back a horse ( with the bookies) at 9/4 , and hold it and it loses , you lose . self evident . If you trade off at 6/4 you get 3/4 of a point guaranteed profit with no liability if it loses . I usually split the difference unless I feel the horse has a really excellent chance of winning .

A bird in the hand etc.

If you consistently back winners with the bookies , and lay off equivalently on here , you finish up with a minus Betfair balance .  Simple sums . Picking winners is the key though , if you keep picking losers you will finish up with a Betfair  plus balance .  Backing winners is the main reason the bookies have closed all my accounts effectively .
By:
Tolmi
When: 02 May 16 09:37
As I suspected you don't really understand what you are doing and how Betfair and it's premium charge work.

I'll give you a clue.It has nothing to do with the bet you have placed with the bookies.

You still haven't answered my question.If you trade in the anticipation of losing why trade at all?
By:
Kelly
When: 02 May 16 09:50
Tolmi , I cant put it any simpler than in previous post .

Premium charge I understand is designed to trap the consistent winners on Betfair , if you back winners consistently over many markets they will get you .  If you back winners with the bookies they will close you down . The only way around is cash betting  ,as anonymously as possible .  Most contributors on here know that .

Trading /arbing by definition guarantees profit .  Betfair and the bookies are just convenient tools .
By:
TheWasp
When: 02 May 16 10:09
kelly and his usual waffle, trading one minute win bets the next then back to trading cash betting for 15 years at the best prices no problem either
some man is right
By:
Tolmi
When: 02 May 16 12:04
Seriously Kelly are you for real?

I have asked you a couple of questions about your trading and you have replied with pearls of wisdom such as backing and laying off at shorter.A ten year old could understand that yet you carefully express the point as if you were Einstein explaining his theory of relativity.

Obviously if one were able to trade on here by backing and laying at shorter consistently then the ensuing profit could bring one into the realm of premium charge.However if one is beating the market with cash betting and trading back on here with close to a 100% book then the premium charge is an impossibility. If you can't understand that then all I can say is you are only embarrassing yourself with your contributions on the topic.

I have asked you a couple of times now why you trade back if you are doing so to make a loss on Betfair as per your earlier post.You have avoided answering it so far so I can only assume you don't have an answer.
By:
Dan Chipowski
When: 02 May 16 12:12
Don't understand why people bother with Kelly.

Most had him pegged ages ago on here. Still spouting his same drivel.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 02 May 16 12:52
A ten year old could understand that yet you carefully express the point as if you were Einstein explaining his theory of relativity.

Spot on.  have been saying it for years.
By:
freddiek
When: 02 May 16 14:17
god Ozy, you're one petty little creep.
Page 2 of 4  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com