Callitasyouseeit says...

"A cracking week’s golf to look forward to this week.
As ever it’s a shame that early coverage is so restricted due to ridiculous Augusta rules, but at least the red button offers the marquee groups.

The Contenders
There are quite a few players who can realistically win this week, but I don't think there are anywhere near the amount of potential winners as in a regular Tour event, or indeed any other Major. Class is consistently coming to the fore at Augusta these days, as recent winners such as Jordan, Bubba, Adam, Bubba, Charl & Phil suggests. There won’t be a Jim Herman wearing the Green Jacket come Sunday, of that you can be sure.

Of the fancied players, the first to draw a line through is Dustin Johnson. He simply won’t win. It gets tougher after that!!

Jordan Spieth brings spectacular course form to the table, but will he bring his putting of 2015?? Its looks doubtful, and given he lacks the length off the tee of a Rory, Jason or Bubba, he will need the flat stick to act as a leveller. I think his confidence has taken a bit of a shaking of late, and even though he has rightly drifted, I still can’t have him at the price.

They say Augusta is made for Rory McIlroy. Maybe it is. But has he ever produced a great round there when under the cosh, when it really counted?? No. He flunked when holding a 4 shot lead in 2011, and in subsequent years his big rounds have come from positions out of real contention and no pressure. Each year he doesn't win it, the more the pressure builds on him to do it. He hasn't got a win this year, and that could be crucial if he is in the mix come Sunday. Not for me.

I had Ricky Fowler down as a potential winner 2 months ago, but even though he has played more than capably since his playoff defeat to Matsuyama, I just don't think he is in quite the same form. He was reluctantly passed over.

Of course Adam Scott has his chance, but I just think he is more than a bit short in the market.

Henrik Stenson is a very poor price for someone who has rarely shone around here, and is finding it ever more difficult to close any deal".

More to follow...

Callit this Week Bets:

Though I am balls deep on him, Phil is not the most likely winner (though I would have him third in the betting).
That mantle has to lie with the rampant Jason Day. The Australian is playing startling golf of late, winning 6 of his last 13 outings. Considering at least 2 of those he was very rusty off a long break, they are nearly Primetime Tiger stats. Day was 2nd here in 2011, and 3rd in 2013. He without doubt has the game for Augusta.

He is now not only a far superior player than he was in either of those years, but he is now a thoroughbred winner - and a major winner to boot. He is a cocksure individual at the moment, and again like Tiger, he seems like he expects to win. That could be pivotal come the back 9 on Sunday. He's only 7-1, but he could be a couple of points shorter I feel. 13-2 in Skye Better is a cracking wager e.w. It will come as a big surprise if he is out of the 8 in his current form.

It is and has been hard to get away from the big names at the head of the market.
I feel Bubba Watson too is value at 12-1. Bubba is a very poor defending champion. He just doesn't seem to operate with that extra pressure/stress. He talked about it prior to last year’s defence, and seemed unsettled. He comes here off the back of a very similar campaign to his two successful years here. His length is such an advantage, and if he hits his share of fairways, he is going to give himself more birdie and eagle chances than anyone else.
His mind seems better than ever, he is less likely to sulk, and looks to be relishing the week ahead.

4pts e.w Jason Day 7-1
2pts e.w Day 13-2(8 places)
1pt e.w Justin Rose 30-1(6 places)
.6pt e.w Rose 25-1 ( 8 places)
4pts e.w Bubba Watson 12-1 (6 places)
1.2pt e.w Hideki Matsuyama 40-1 ( 6 places)
.4pt e.w Shane Lowry 150-1 (6 places)
.8pt e.w Mickelson 20-1( 8 places)



Top Player Markets


Top Argentinian
Angel Cabrera at 6-4 here is the Bet of the week IMO. Quite how he is not favourite and a firm one is beyond me.
Yes he comes in poor form, but he has stridden down Magnolia Lane many times before after a series of missed cuts and proceeded to perform superbly here. In his last 10 appearances, he has only one MC here. He has one win, 4 top 10s, and only that one occasion been outside the top 37. 37th will win this bet, of that I would be very confident.

He is a shorter price than Grillo in the outright market, yet much bigger in this. How is that? In many instances some players may be likely to win or bust and the likes of Charles Howell will be likely to find a top 20, and so be deserving of the flip flop on outright odds. Given its Grillo’s debut here, and The Ducks excellent course form, I can’t have it. Grillo is a hot head, talented no doubt, but even if he led after round 3 I wouldn't bank on him finishing top 30. It’s very possible he will find it all too much for him too, like Shane last year.
Gomez won’t matter. Cracking bet.

8pts Angel Cabrera Top Argentinian 6-4


Top Debutant

Not a lot to go on here, but I really like Kevin Kisner at 8-1. A local lad, he is much more level headed and mature than a few of the debutants. He is a class act, who may well outperform his outright odds, and I would have him a definite favourite in this market.

2pts Kevin Kisner Top Debutant 8-1


Best of Luck folks, hopefully it’s a profitable one. Enjoy.
© Callit (with kind permission).

Here are my 5 against the field.

Rory Milroy 10
Charl Schwartzel 50
Brendt Snedeker 70
Hideki Matsuyama 42
Patrick Reed 50/1 ew 6 places Sportsbook

Have laid Garcia in his 3ball..

BACK TO BACK WINNERS of the MASTERS...

1965 and 1966 - Jack Nicklaus
1989 and 1990 - Nick Faldo
2001 and 2002 - Tiger Woods
2015 and 2016 - SPIETHLESS

I was very keen on our own Shane Lowry here last year. He failed the exam, but was very forthright in his interview afterwards.
The occasion and stage had got the better of him, and he was overawed. I maintain that though he lacks a bit of distance off the tee, that his game is made for here. An absolute superb exponent of the short game, having become a WGC champion since last year, I think we will Shane do himself proud this week. And at a price".

Bit early for the boys in Esker Hills GC to start celebrating

I think this is going to be like the 1970 and 1971 Cheltenham Gold Cups.

Peter OSullevans commentary the relevant clue.

Great round from Shane McLowry.

Easiest 68 he will ever shoot around there.

ffs LOWRY bogey bogey start

Spieth birdies the first and is 4 clear, we could be in for another weekend borefest.

*put

SPIETH offers some light to the field (and punters who DIDN'T BACK HIM) with a double bogey on the 5th !

Looks like we got ourselves a tournament....
All social engagements cancelled for the weekend.

Callit, GRILLO and The DUCK both +2

TV coverage...details: 

Saturday
Live: BBC2 from 7.30pm, Sky Sports 1 and 4, from 8pm

Sunday
Live: BBC2 from 6,30pm, Sky Sports 1 from 6.30pm and 4, from 6pm

Seamus Power only two off the lead

Might be a good day for our lads  , Rory will love being head to head with Spieth , and has a good record in that respect .  Shane looking comfortable , expect him to improve his position , and a few bob on him at 80 or so might not be misplaced with a view to trading .

Its not a 2 horse race though , there must be 10 or more who could string together 2 decent rounds which might just be enough to win , the course is not giving up easy birdies except on the par 5's .

Worst thing possible having these two playing together Kelly , they'll be playing each other rather than the course , Snedwill benefit hugely  from their battle.

12 rounds played together...

McIlroy -36
Spieth -8

THE WORLD AWAITS...RORY v JORDAN...NIKE v UNDER ARMOUR (Jason Day and Adidas a distant third).