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Alec Eiffel
22 Feb 16 15:57
Date Joined: 23 May 04
| Topic/replies: 118 | Blogger: Alec Eiffel's blog
If anyone is interested in putting their political nous to the test why not enter 'elecTeD' - the General Election Prediction Contest. Only a tenner to enter with 50% of the pot going to the winner and 50% to the winner's charity of choice. There are actually two contests - the heavy duty political anorak 40 constituency version where you have to predict every candidate elected
and for the recreational politico there's a straight 'Total Party Seats' contest where you just have to predict how many seats each party will win
Best of luck and remember that unlike most of the outgoing Labour TDs, you actually have a realistic chance of winning!
Pause Switch to Standard View General Election Prediction Contest
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Report irish_guy_13 February 22, 2016 8:29 PM GMT
Is Fine Geal to get more than 50.5 seats with lad's at 5/6 , value? anyone?
Report newapproach February 22, 2016 9:13 PM GMT
I wouldn't say it is value personally irish guy. They have had a disastrous campaign and it only seems to be getting worse thanks to that clown enda. In the end, i'd imagine they probably will get 50 seats but just about. I wouldn't be taking that price about it.

The 4/6 about labour getting less than 8.5 seats is a steal in comparison imo. Very hard to see labour getting double figures imo.
Report keen leader February 22, 2016 9:57 PM GMT
the only bet I have had and will have on this election is one I stuck up on another thread early in 2015. I punted the 5/6 at the time about f fail winning more seats that the shinners, that particular seed will yield a full grown tree at the weekend.

personally I believe if the combined seats of ff and sf exceed fg and lab, which it is looking likely then the outgoing government should simply step aside and let the rest try and cobble together a government, as after all the electorate will have voted out the previous gov.

if you had to have a bet between now and Friday, I think a punt on labour getting 5 or less seats looks primed to deliver. by my calculations, only the Kenny guy may survive for labour in Dublin, his was always an aer lingus/union type vote in Dublin north...the rest are facing wipe out in the capital.

outside of Dublin, only a personal vote of sorts can save howlin, penrose, kelly, nash and stagg...on a really bad day labour could be down  to less than 3

when the bbc released the polling day election figures, paddy ashdown refused to give them any credence and said he would eat his hat if the figures reflected reality for the lib dems in the 2015 election, that was at about 11pm, 3 hours later he conceded he was wrong....I think irish labour could be in for the same this weekend, a humiliation.
Report newapproach February 22, 2016 10:14 PM GMT
Howlin, penrose and stagg could get big personal votes, after that they will be scrambling for votes. I think it will be a bloodbath for them, they will more than likely go from their best ever election result to their worst ever. in one cycle.

Fianna Fail will finish the campaign strong I'd imagine. Martin will probably perform best of all in the leaders debate tomorrow night and that should be another boost for them. They should pick up all the votes that the government are losing and a lot of the don't knows should go their way also.
Report irish_guy_13 February 22, 2016 10:31 PM GMT
Jack wall's son  (mark) in  south Kildare, will retain the seat for labour imo
Report dillinger February 22, 2016 10:45 PM GMT
Constituency betting up here now , Michael mc in Clare has an outside squeak for labour , has Alex white a chance
Report newapproach February 23, 2016 7:20 AM GMT
I'd say alex white has no chance. He only got in last time when their vote had artificially swelled. It is a very tough constituency with shatter and shane ross in it. Third seat will be tight, I'd say fianna fail will take it. Alex white is 5/1 in the betting, I'd say labour have given up on that seat.
Report frank60 February 23, 2016 12:04 PM GMT
F/G AND F/F looks the likely Scenario to me, i haven.t had a bet on the G/E the bookies are giving nothing away ; i cant say i bleme them.
Report mincer11 February 23, 2016 12:18 PM GMT
The people of Kerry deserve to be applauded, they are going to elect two Healy Rae's and Ferris as well.
Would the Irish people vote in Dustin The Turkey if they could dig him up, maybe not as a TD , but certainly they could send him to Europe, its not as if they havent sent him before.
Paddy Docherty would be a shoo in if he went for the Dail, he could establish a different kind of PBP,(Pavies Behaving  Perfectly). Offaly would be a good place for him to throw his hat into the ring.
Report pa lapsy February 23, 2016 12:29 PM GMT
Suppose Cork wouldn't be much better with Bernie Murphy(though city council), even though it was more a betting coup.
Bernies whole agenda was a new set of teeth which he duly got.
The farce was shown to me when i went to visit someone i knew in the South Infirmary hospital, asked that someone did he want an Echo from the shop down by reception and as Bernie was in the bed next to him,i asked him as well, Bernie refused and only found out after he couldn't read or write.
Report Racingqueen February 23, 2016 6:56 PM GMT
Vote 1 Dublin Central Laugh
Report wildmanfromborneo February 23, 2016 9:32 PM GMT
Doubt the people of Kerry will elect two Healy Raes and Marin Ferris.
Michael is a poll topper but its either Danny or Martin Ferris for the last seat.
Report mincer11 February 23, 2016 9:48 PM GMT
Well Dan I know nothing about politics , but the paddy power betting to be elected is 1/80 Michael and 1/8 Danny with  the last seat looking between Ferris who is 8/15 and Arthur Spring who is 13/8.
Report wildmanfromborneo February 23, 2016 10:06 PM GMT
Danny is the worst eights on shot I've ever seen.

It shows the margins they are betting to as Arthur Spring is 13/8 as he has no chance.

I presume they actually have six odds on shots in their betting
Michael Healy Rae
Jimmy Deenihan
Johm Brassil
will all sail in,the last two seats will be a fight between.
Brendan Griffin
Martin Ferris
Danny Healy Rae.

Arthur Spring won't be there and I think Danny Healy Rae will lose out.
Report mincer11 February 23, 2016 10:21 PM GMT
Yes you are right , 6 huge odds on chances , and a 13/8 chance .
That's the betting for 5 seats.
As I said I know nothing about politics and just assumed 1/8 was home and hosed .
Report wildmanfromborneo February 23, 2016 10:28 PM GMT
You understand figures though.

Because its specialist type betting they have huge margins.

The betting on highest vote getter is incredible,its like Eyrecourt point to point or Limerick dogs
Report Racingqueen February 23, 2016 10:32 PM GMT
Some of the odds are mad. Kelly was 2nd in the betting in Tipp last week. Hard to see FF winning 2 seats in Tipp as well.
Report newapproach February 23, 2016 10:40 PM GMT
The introduction of danny healy rae has made Kerry very hard to call, it is difficult to know how many votes they will get in the north of the county. Their canvassing is going very well by all accounts but it still won't be easy to get 2 over the line.

On balance I would agree with your call wildman. I think there is enough if an urban vote to get Ferris in, the elimination of Spring should get him over the line.
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