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Deplasterer
09 Feb 16 12:22
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Date Joined: 23 Aug 10
| Topic/replies: 6,581 | Blogger: Deplasterer's blog
Pro Am event so 54 hole cut top 60 and ties. Weather good for week and I would imagine those at top of market will fight it out on Sunday.

Sneds won this for 2nd time last year in a record score, ran out of petrol last week which is understandable. In super form can't see him out of top 5.

Dustin Johnson has also won here and threw away a US open to G McDowell on the same course. Does find winning hard but think Dustybin could win this in a canter even with Spieth in the field. Usual few quid on Padraig also.

Brandt Snedeker 15's W & Pl
Dustin Johnson 13's W & Pl
Pod 330's W & Pl

Best of luck.
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Report huddys February 9, 2016 12:56 PM GMT
Pebble beach Not really an event that I like that much with them playing over three different course and also the fact that the coverage wont be great til  sunday,they usually show the celebs over the first three days,
Anyway backed two golfers against the field this week,
1st selection is Dustin Johnson,he could over power the courses this week,and seems at ease playing in this type of event,
2nd selection is Jimmy Walker, has shown his liken to this course over the last few years,and played a very solid tournament last time out,
Now onto Europe were we have a very poor event,ive back George Coetzee, he's the defending champion and the course is were he's a member of,so he will have a lot of course knowledge

Selections,

Pebble Beach,
Dustin Johnson 11/1 e/w 7 places,
Jimmy Walker 18/1 e/w 7 places.

George Coetzee e/w 8/1,

Also done permed e/w doubles,
Best of luck this week lads,
Report TheWasp February 9, 2016 1:17 PM GMT
Followed you in with walker and gorgeous george huddys have had a little on hunter mahan aswell
Best of luck cant go wrong following the golf lads here last few weeks
Report Snookerpunter February 9, 2016 3:50 PM GMT
A very entertaining weekend of golf last week, in keeping with most weeks this calendar year.

Fair play to Danny Willet for keeping the head, and holing that winning birdie putt.(much to my disgust)

Typical of a gamblers instincts/reactions I cursed Willet again after Matsuyama won, as could have landed a tasty double. In truth Willet fully deserved the win, and I think Ricky Fowler should have walked away with the trophy stateside. The missed birdie putt on 16 may have been the catalyst, as he surely would have laid up on 17 with a 3 shot lead. But I still think it was the wrong decision, and the caddy should have been keeping the big dog in the bag.

I wasn't complaining!!

Only one decent event this week, and I was going to give The Tshwane Open a skip. But with serious doubts over a 6-1 jolly in the shape of Charl Schwartzel, there has to be some value somewhere.

Given there are very few serious title challengers, in a field full of dross, George Coetzee will be very disappointed if he cant go very close to repeating last years win.

He has been performing admirably in events far removed from this, and though his 'home advantage' may be slightly dwindled this year with the others having, he should take advantage of the drop in class. And the fitness worries surrounding Schwartzel.

3.5pts e.w George Coetzee 8-1

Onto the much more interesting Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and a field full of the worlds elite.

How ready quite and able quite a few of that elite will be for this test though has to be questioned.

Jordan Spieth has on more than occasion intimated that he just cannot read Poa Annua greens. I'm sure he will conquer this at some stage, he is too good not to, but at 5-1 fav its not a doubt I would want. And he has been all over the world of late too.

Jason Day would normally have been of much more interest at the prices, but he too has a question mark over him this week regarding his well being. With very little competitive rounds under his belt, and the stop start nature of this drawn out event, I can leave him be.

I have been against Dustin Johnson all year, and have seen nothing to suggest he is putting in the practise his talent deserves. Yes he has cracking Pebble form, and he obviously likes this event, but at 10-/11-1 given his current erratic form I cant have him.

One player who does look on the verge of a win, is West Coast specialist Jimmy Walker.

He landed me one of my biggest wins in this two years when falling over the line to land a transatlantic double. He comes here without a win this time around, but maybe a shade unlucky in that regard. The weather played absolute havoc with the final round at Torrey, and I get the feeling between that and KJ Choi's horrible slow play, Jimmy's attitude just wasn't what it might have been. 

He was finding more fairways, and he seems to be coming very much to the boil. As he says, some players just don't like this format, and that rules out quite a few in this field. It certainly doesn't hinder Jimmy. He will go very close.

I have gone for more selections than normal in this event, the main reason being I just couldn't leave Brandt Snedeker out.

At first glance the player I had been waiting to back for this for 4 weeks didn't look overpriced at 16-1 in a field with the aforementioned star names. But though down the field last week(expected IMO), he looks far more likely to produce his game than most.

A winner here twice in the past 3 years, he arguably arrives with his long game in better shape than ever. Back on Poa Annua greens, he will be relishing the prospect of a second win of the year.

He could be my cliff horse, but I am sticking with Phil Mickleson until the market gives his game the respect it deserves. He ended up quite a few shots off the winners on Sunday, but how many putts inside 10ft did he miss?? Far too many for a man of his ability, but I don't think that will be repeated here. If he continues to drive it as well, and hit his approaches as consistently close he will win very soon.

Where better than at his beloved Pebble. 

Someone who should be licking his lips at the challenge ahead, particularly with a bit of wind forecast over the weekend is our own Shane Lowry.

He seemed to revel in the cauldron of the 16th at Phoenix, but did mention that it was a bit of an uncomfortable atmosphere at times. This week will be very much Shanes cup of tea, and given the form he takes there from last week, I expect him to be challenging come the back 9 on Sunday. A fine 21st on debut here last year, he can certainly better that.

Russel Knox and David Lingmerth are two fast improvers who can go close.

Two top 30 finishes for Knox on his last two visits look average I suppose, but he had relatively poor Sundays when average ones would have seen him very close to top 10s both times. He is a current WGC champion and a far more assured golfer now. 80-1 is big.

I have long admired David Lingmerth, and was very relieved he didn't come to haunt me a couple of weeks back against Dufner. I think he will relish this test, and is far too big a price at 80-1 here.

I haven't backed Padraig Harrington in quite awhile, but he really does seem a massive price this week. He revels in these pro ams, and is in far better form now than in other years when he has still performed well here. Backed e.w at 200-1 and a few quid extra on here at the inflated win price.

I don't expect Bryce Molder to win this, but I do think he will be in or around the top of the leaderboard come Sunday evening. Given his liking for this format, past form here, and his current well being, I would make him about a 2-1 shot for top 20. The 7-2 freely available is an excellent bet.

2pts e.w Jimmy Walker 20-1
2pts e.w Brandt Snedeker 16-1
1.5pt e.w Phil Mickleson 22-1(7 places)
.8pt e.w Shane Lowry 40-1
.4pt e.w David Lingmerth 80-1
.4pt e.w Russell Knox 80-1
.3pt e.w Padraig Harrington 200-1

4pts Bryce Molder Top 20 7-2

Week 5 Outrights - Staked:37.2pts/Returns:59.45pts
2/3 Balls - Staked:9.5pts/Returns:0pts

Total Staked: 189pts
Total Returned:345.2pts
Running Total: +156.2pts
R.O.I........82.65%

Best of Luck All.
Report newapproach February 9, 2016 5:56 PM GMT
Change of coach seems to be working nicely for Phil Mickelson. 20/1 looks a good price this week in an event he has won previously. He is a laid back enough character to cope with the pro-am format.

I agree with snooker punter about Bryce Molder this week. He probably won't win but 7/2 about top20 looks a decent bet.

The same goes for Daniel Summerhays @ 6/1. Both these players are excellent putters and could get involved without winning.

Good luck all.
Report Kelly February 9, 2016 10:28 PM GMT
Thinking Shane Lowry might be worth an interest , not specifically because of his nationality . Reckon he might consolidate his presence on the PGA tour soon .

Ref Fowler , snookerpunter , he actually hit 3 wood at that fateful ( for him ) hole , just unlucky it pitched on a downslope and kicked on . Fairly shocked the 1.03 punters .
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 10, 2016 10:46 AM GMT
Rickie Fowler hit two balls into the water on the par-4 17th hole to give Hideki Matsuyama an unexpected victory Sunday in the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
After letting a two-shot lead slip away on the 317-yard hole in regulation when he blasted a driver through the green and into the water, Fowler pulled a 5-wood into the lake on the fourth hole of a playoff to set up the deciding bogey. Matsuyama birdied the hole in regulation and two-putted for par from 6 feet in the playoff.
Report padlock February 10, 2016 11:37 AM GMT
Giving j walters another go this week
Koepka and bubba at pebble
Little on spieth/ walters double Laugh
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 10, 2016 12:08 PM GMT
Padlock, Brooks HATES these Poa annua greens (5 putted in Torrey Pines last year). He's a West Palm Beach native and will “pumped to get back to Bermuda grass” his native turf after this West Coast Swing.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 10, 2016 12:11 PM GMT
REED or ROSE to WIN - will consider MICKELSON, SNED's, WALKER & Michael LOWRY after first round.
Report padlock February 10, 2016 2:55 PM GMT
Yes but he is a bit schitzo so at prices mabey
Added shane lowry 48 on here
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 10, 2016 6:36 PM GMT
Also in with CHARL & RUMFORD in Pretoria CC + ew dbls ROSE/REED.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 10, 2016 6:38 PM GMT
Pad, Koepka 50's for the Masters atm.
Report frank60 February 10, 2016 10:09 PM GMT
Got 350/1 here on Lasse Jensen on Tues to win  The Tshwane Open,    IN the  Pebble Beach i had a good bet on Jimmy Walker 19/1 and backed POD and Jason Kokrak for smaller stakes. Goodluck with your bets lads.
Report Snookerpunter February 11, 2016 12:18 AM GMT
Added Fabrizio Zanotti in Tshwane Open.

Making his debut here, but its a track that should suit the Paraguayan. Arrives on the back on two missed cuts, but he's a hit and miss sort who if he brings his A game, is far superior to most of these.

.6pt e.w Fabrizio Zanotti 50-1
Report snap crackle and pop February 11, 2016 12:25 AM GMT
Gone for a bit of a curve ball this week in the Tshwane thing.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ew at 40/1
Report applehunter February 11, 2016 12:41 AM GMT
No bet in SA.

Shane Lowry in us.
Report Deplasterer February 11, 2016 1:38 PM GMT
It's an Irish jolly at 5.50pm with Shane & Pod playing alongside JP and Dermot Desmond. They are playing the so called easiest course at Monterrey Peninsula and hopefully they can get some birdies going and feed off each other. Interest on both for first round leader.

Shane Lowry 33/1 ew
Padraig 66/1 ew and 130's win here.
Report Snookerpunter February 11, 2016 2:18 PM GMT
Where did you get them prices for FRL DP??

I can only see SJ on odds checker

Would have been interested in Pat Perez and Lingnerth.

4pts David Lingmerth 16.55 3 ball 17-20.
Report Deplasterer February 11, 2016 2:31 PM GMT
Mc cleans priced up on Tues nite, seem to have separated into 3 courses now, the early wormWink.Laddies priced up similar few weeks ago, can't remember tournament, backfired on me then though. You can still get decent prices here, not much liquidity though.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 11, 2016 5:27 PM GMT
Justin Harding (now 25/1 - 4places) birdied six of his last 10 holes in a 7-under-par 33-30=63 in round one of the Tshwane Open in South Africa, good enough for the lead after Thursday's play. Harding, ranked 509th in the world, upstaged his better-known compatriots with a sparkling back nine at Pretoria CC.

In one respect, it's hard to see where this round has come from having missed the cut in all three of the European Tour co-sanctioned events in South Africa so far and also failed to cash in this event last year. However, he is a three-time winner on his home tour (2010, 2011 and 2015) and qualified for the Open Championship in 2013. ""I personally don't find the course all that easy. It may be short but you still have to put it into position. There is enough slope on the greens so you are going to have some tricky putts," said Harding.

Just a note of caution that while 14-under won this last year, when 9-under was good enough for third (Justin is already halfway there), both David HORSEY shot •63•69•69•73 (-6 for T10 finish) and Morten Ørum MADSEN  •63•72•68•72 (for a T15) opened with similar 63's in Rd 1.

OWGR #69 Jaco Van Zyl now 4/1 fav (at -4) could win this - he's lurking 3 back on his own in fourth !
Report Deplasterer February 12, 2016 4:34 PM GMT
Monterrey course played 3 shots easier than the other 2 yesterday. Most of the big guns who struggled somewhat yesterday are playing there today, expect most of them to move forward by end of play. Padraig missed only 3 fairways and was punished each time unfortunately. Playing pebble today, hopefully he can get the putter hot. Taken him @ 6/4 to BT Lowry in their 2 ball, they are showing these two live on Live@ on the PGA Tour site from 5.06, nearly 6 he rounds though with amateursCry
Report Snookerpunter February 12, 2016 4:40 PM GMT
3pts Double Brandt Snedeker 4-9, Jimmy Walker 8-13 17.06 2 balls.
Report applehunter February 12, 2016 7:07 PM GMT
Phil is the man.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2016 7:46 PM GMT
Apple,

Phil just played the front nine in MP...my babe ROSE is just about to play it, after posting 3under of the back nine (his front nine).
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2016 7:56 PM GMT
Muck this 40/1 ....Hiroshi Iwata playing like he owns the place !
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2016 8:15 PM GMT
Fidel Roberto Castro (a nible @33's) is going really well (-4 thru10) on the difficult Spyglass having posted 6under in Pebble yesterday !
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2016 8:19 PM GMT
Phil and ROSE both had a bogey on the easy Monterey Peninsula (feels like a two shot swing) where JB Homeboy is -2thru6.
Report Deplasterer February 12, 2016 8:32 PM GMT
Padraig doing well also, hopefully get another birdie or two, 2 ball is in the bag, Lowry + 2, couple of par 5's coming for him, Phil and rose favs at this stage with all the other big guns struggling.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2016 9:00 PM GMT
Apple V CMiyc Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2016 9:26 PM GMT
Iwata now 14's & Fidel R Castro 18's Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2016 9:44 PM GMT
Sh1te, even I shot a better score than Poor Paul Dunne on PB +6thru16.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2016 10:33 PM GMT
SANG misses out on a 59 on Monterey Peninsula (pars 18th for 60).
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2016 10:34 PM GMT
*SUNG KANG
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2016 10:36 PM GMT
REED not out of this either Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2016 10:37 PM GMT
33's 1/5 4places too
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 13, 2016 12:16 AM GMT
Sorry but Fidel Castro (another nible @28's) is just too big
He's going really well (T7 @-8) with easiest Monterey Peninsula tomorrow, then last round (likely in one of the leading two groups) again on Pebble (where he shot -6 in Rd1) Devil
Report Deplasterer February 13, 2016 1:49 PM GMT
Phil and Rose in prime position to take a stranglehold on this at Pebble Beach today, but anyone of 30 possible yet. Pod had a poor finish yesterday but on the whole seems to be playing fine, bookies have him outsider again against Lowry at the tricky spyglass course, doubling up from yesterday @ 6/4 again.
Report Deplasterer February 13, 2016 10:09 PM GMT
Super round by Padraig on the tough Spyglass course currently has him in the top 10. If the leaders stall at around -13 would have a squeak of at least a top 5 2 mor.
Report applehunter February 13, 2016 11:47 PM GMT
Phil playing as well as he ever has.
Report applehunter February 13, 2016 11:47 PM GMT
Phil playing as well as he ever has.
Report Snookerpunter February 14, 2016 12:52 AM GMT
Serious round from Phil.

Thing is he's been playing this well for weeks, just hasn't been holing anything. Today he holed everything he looked at, and the little chips and bunker shots were simply sublime Phil.

Bit worrying that he missed a lot of fairways, and in truth the round could easily have been 6 shots worse in different hands.

Lets see how the swing holds up under the Sunday microscope tomorrow. If he putts aswell, it might not matter!

I was surprised to see him as big as 1.7 tbh. There are obviously still plenty of doubters out there.

I believe!!

Cracking round from Pod, well done on the 2 ball DP. Shame about his finish to the round yesterday.

Walker has come to life a bit late, hopefully himself or Pod can bag a top 5.

Tempted to lay Charl in Tshwane. His reaction to a perfectly tee shot on 15, his terrible drive on 18, and subsequent brutal par attempt suggest he will be shaky tomorrow.

Is there anyone capable of taking advantage??

Maybe young Porteous.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 14, 2016 1:36 PM GMT
NO MORE bets in SA... Charl Schwarzenegger off to a flying start in 2016 Devil

Jasus George GetYourCoetzee just lost his shirt in SA (4over for his last five) - moves from T5 to 15th atm.

That young 21-year-old SA lad ZANDER LOMBARD slept well-on-second-place in Pretoria. Just needs one bird from his last four holes for another fine second place finish. Lombard has enjoyed an excellent start to the season, missing out on a play-off at the Australian PGA Championship by one shot where he finished 4th, finished in a tie for 12th at the BMW SA Open and slept in a 4-way-tie for the lead, with Porteous, USA's Daniel Im and Anthony Wall in Johannesburg, finishing -16 on his own in second place with 71*64*65*71. Zander held a two-shot lead after 7 holes of the front nine in Joburg but a few 3 putts cost him dear !


Catch Me ifyoucan  • February 13, 2016 12:16 AM GMT 
Sorry but Fidel Castro (another nible @28's) is just too big !
He's going really well (T7 @-8) with easiest Monterey Peninsula tomorrow, then last round (likely in one of the leading two groups) again on Pebble (where he shot -6 in Rd1)

Plays in the third last group this evening - another nibble at 28's in Spoils to make the top 3 !
Report applehunter February 14, 2016 2:02 PM GMT
Schwartzel, just awesome.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 14, 2016 5:26 PM GMT
17:39 Fredrik Jacobson (4/6) Sung Kang (2)
17:50 Phil Mickelson (4/7) Hiroshi Iwata (11/4)
PAYS 10/1 for a score Devil
Report wildmanfromborneo February 14, 2016 10:47 PM GMT
Hard to find Vaughan Taylor but some might remember from the K Club 10 years ago.

Hendrik Stenson beat him handy then,Taylor taking his revenge on Blixt.
Report wildmanfromborneo February 14, 2016 10:52 PM GMT
Mickelson not dead yet,if it gets to a play off there is no betting.
Report applehunter February 14, 2016 11:25 PM GMT
That's a hard one to take....bah
Report Snookerpunter February 14, 2016 11:31 PM GMT
Yeah, I thought bird was cert from edge of green. Poor third, but should have holed the putt.

I would certainly be with Wildman in that there was only one winner in the playoff.
Report workrider February 15, 2016 10:54 AM GMT
Hard luck Callit, Phil looked sure to hole that putt as well , well done on the e/w .
Report frank60 February 15, 2016 12:28 PM GMT
POD T-21   Pity about the last round of 74,good show nevertheless.
Report Clerkmore February 15, 2016 2:17 PM GMT
Poor last round by Phil. But a typical last round from somebody who hasn't won since 2013. After playing well for three rounds I couldn't see the point of him sending for his new coach. The last thing you want going into a final round leading is somebody tinkering with your swing.
Report Deplasterer February 15, 2016 2:25 PM GMT
Yeah Phil looked dead and then looked sure of a playoff, that's the highs and lows of golf betting. Back to his best though and surely won't be long before winning, possibly the Honda in a few weeks. Pods game is fine tee to green, but is languishing 200 the in strokes gained putting, which ain't gonna get it done at this level. If he can find something on the greens could well challenge soon, maybe back at the Honda also were he defends last year's unexpected and incredible win.
Report applehunter February 15, 2016 2:38 PM GMT
Will be looking for Rory & Schwartzel for Northern Trust.
Report applehunter February 16, 2016 10:36 AM GMT
Why posts deleted?
Report Snookerpunter February 16, 2016 11:36 AM GMT
I mentioned a certain firm being a certain price on Charl.

Post deleted, price cut.

Happening a lot lately.
Report padlock February 16, 2016 11:43 AM GMT
Feel the power eh?
Report pa lapsy February 16, 2016 11:56 AM GMT
Almost certainly as if some junior monkey is monitoring the forum,it is happening a lot and pre-merger as well.

On the flip side,it is begging an invitition to soften his cough,poor form on a punters forum.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 16, 2016 12:08 PM GMT
Read the NEW Terms and Conditions..

"ANY comments about Poor Paddy will not be accepted"
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 16, 2016 12:13 PM GMT
Complimentary comments like THEY OFFER 7, YES SEVEN, PLACES in the PGA TOUR Golf are always welcome Devil

Although Sky bettor and James Stanley usually have better prices WITH ONLY SIX PLACES.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 16, 2016 12:16 PM GMT
30's is still good with 7 places on Charl Schwarzenegger
Report pa lapsy February 16, 2016 12:18 PM GMT
It wasn't in anyway a derogatory remark, more in their praise as it was a punter shopping for the best price,given that it is an Irish forum and they are by far the islands biggest bookmaker,it is very hard not to give a comment from an Irish punters perspective, isn't it?
Very poor Catchme and maybe the "new terms" in certain(most) instances are completely illogical.
Report Ozymandius February 16, 2016 12:31 PM GMT
Catch Me seems well clued up on the ts and cs.....surprise, surprise.
Report pa lapsy February 16, 2016 12:38 PM GMT
12.13 The seven places are grand but tis hard to be too compliementary as only a fifth, very tight really and would love an explanation.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 16, 2016 12:45 PM GMT
Pa, as I mentioned at 12.13 prefer 6places/quarter and usually better odds.

PaddyPoorBetfair PLC is complete...market cap over €11bn and debt-free balance sheet...will join the FTSE 100 index in early March and MSCI European large-cap indices...the long-term investment thesis of the group is very attractive...combined entity has the potential to be a global leader in online gaming.

Scope to deliver high earnings growth and to generate substantial cash returns...forecasts of near 30% compound annual earnings growth and over £1bn in free cash flow over the next three years, with a commitment to pay out 50% of net income in the form of ordinary dividends. Should the group choose to, it could supplement these ordinary dividends with further pay-outs and buy-backs over time.

Reduced earnings volatility / scale advantage / Substantial balance sheet power / Experienced and proven management team / the stock is now trading on a 2017 P/E of 23.0x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.5x. Cost synergies annualised £50m by year three.
PPBetfair will report earnings for the first time as a merged entity on March 8th. Devil
Report padlock February 16, 2016 2:43 PM GMT
Rancid bunch
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