Pebble Beach and Euro Golf

Pebble beach Not really an event that I like that much with them playing over three different course and also the fact that the coverage wont be great til  sunday,they usually show the celebs over the first three days,
Anyway backed two golfers against the field this week,
1st selection is Dustin Johnson,he could over power the courses this week,and seems at ease playing in this type of event,
2nd selection is Jimmy Walker, has shown his liken to this course over the last few years,and played a very solid tournament last time out,
Now onto Europe were we have a very poor event,ive back George Coetzee, he's the defending champion and the course is were he's a member of,so he will have a lot of course knowledge

Selections,

Pebble Beach,
Dustin Johnson 11/1 e/w 7 places,
Jimmy Walker 18/1 e/w 7 places.

George Coetzee e/w 8/1,

Also done permed e/w doubles,
Best of luck this week lads,

A very entertaining weekend of golf last week, in keeping with most weeks this calendar year.

Fair play to Danny Willet for keeping the head, and holing that winning birdie putt.(much to my disgust)

Typical of a gamblers instincts/reactions I cursed Willet again after Matsuyama won, as could have landed a tasty double. In truth Willet fully deserved the win, and I think Ricky Fowler should have walked away with the trophy stateside. The missed birdie putt on 16 may have been the catalyst, as he surely would have laid up on 17 with a 3 shot lead. But I still think it was the wrong decision, and the caddy should have been keeping the big dog in the bag.

I wasn't complaining!!

Only one decent event this week, and I was going to give The Tshwane Open a skip. But with serious doubts over a 6-1 jolly in the shape of Charl Schwartzel, there has to be some value somewhere.

Given there are very few serious title challengers, in a field full of dross, George Coetzee will be very disappointed if he cant go very close to repeating last years win.

He has been performing admirably in events far removed from this, and though his 'home advantage' may be slightly dwindled this year with the others having, he should take advantage of the drop in class. And the fitness worries surrounding Schwartzel.

3.5pts e.w George Coetzee 8-1

Onto the much more interesting Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and a field full of the worlds elite.

How ready quite and able quite a few of that elite will be for this test though has to be questioned.

Jordan Spieth has on more than occasion intimated that he just cannot read Poa Annua greens. I'm sure he will conquer this at some stage, he is too good not to, but at 5-1 fav its not a doubt I would want. And he has been all over the world of late too.

Jason Day would normally have been of much more interest at the prices, but he too has a question mark over him this week regarding his well being. With very little competitive rounds under his belt, and the stop start nature of this drawn out event, I can leave him be.

I have been against Dustin Johnson all year, and have seen nothing to suggest he is putting in the practise his talent deserves. Yes he has cracking Pebble form, and he obviously likes this event, but at 10-/11-1 given his current erratic form I cant have him.

One player who does look on the verge of a win, is West Coast specialist Jimmy Walker.

He landed me one of my biggest wins in this two years when falling over the line to land a transatlantic double. He comes here without a win this time around, but maybe a shade unlucky in that regard. The weather played absolute havoc with the final round at Torrey, and I get the feeling between that and KJ Choi's horrible slow play, Jimmy's attitude just wasn't what it might have been. 

He was finding more fairways, and he seems to be coming very much to the boil. As he says, some players just don't like this format, and that rules out quite a few in this field. It certainly doesn't hinder Jimmy. He will go very close.

I have gone for more selections than normal in this event, the main reason being I just couldn't leave Brandt Snedeker out.

At first glance the player I had been waiting to back for this for 4 weeks didn't look overpriced at 16-1 in a field with the aforementioned star names. But though down the field last week(expected IMO), he looks far more likely to produce his game than most.

A winner here twice in the past 3 years, he arguably arrives with his long game in better shape than ever. Back on Poa Annua greens, he will be relishing the prospect of a second win of the year.

He could be my cliff horse, but I am sticking with Phil Mickleson until the market gives his game the respect it deserves. He ended up quite a few shots off the winners on Sunday, but how many putts inside 10ft did he miss?? Far too many for a man of his ability, but I don't think that will be repeated here. If he continues to drive it as well, and hit his approaches as consistently close he will win very soon.

Where better than at his beloved Pebble. 

Someone who should be licking his lips at the challenge ahead, particularly with a bit of wind forecast over the weekend is our own Shane Lowry.

He seemed to revel in the cauldron of the 16th at Phoenix, but did mention that it was a bit of an uncomfortable atmosphere at times. This week will be very much Shanes cup of tea, and given the form he takes there from last week, I expect him to be challenging come the back 9 on Sunday. A fine 21st on debut here last year, he can certainly better that.

Russel Knox and David Lingmerth are two fast improvers who can go close.

Two top 30 finishes for Knox on his last two visits look average I suppose, but he had relatively poor Sundays when average ones would have seen him very close to top 10s both times. He is a current WGC champion and a far more assured golfer now. 80-1 is big.

I have long admired David Lingmerth, and was very relieved he didn't come to haunt me a couple of weeks back against Dufner. I think he will relish this test, and is far too big a price at 80-1 here.

I haven't backed Padraig Harrington in quite awhile, but he really does seem a massive price this week. He revels in these pro ams, and is in far better form now than in other years when he has still performed well here. Backed e.w at 200-1 and a few quid extra on here at the inflated win price.

I don't expect Bryce Molder to win this, but I do think he will be in or around the top of the leaderboard come Sunday evening. Given his liking for this format, past form here, and his current well being, I would make him about a 2-1 shot for top 20. The 7-2 freely available is an excellent bet.

2pts e.w Jimmy Walker 20-1
2pts e.w Brandt Snedeker 16-1
1.5pt e.w Phil Mickleson 22-1(7 places)
.8pt e.w Shane Lowry 40-1
.4pt e.w David Lingmerth 80-1
.4pt e.w Russell Knox 80-1
.3pt e.w Padraig Harrington 200-1

4pts Bryce Molder Top 20 7-2

Week 5 Outrights - Staked:37.2pts/Returns:59.45pts
2/3 Balls - Staked:9.5pts/Returns:0pts

Total Staked: 189pts
Total Returned:345.2pts
Running Total: +156.2pts
R.O.I........82.65%

Best of Luck All.

Thinking Shane Lowry might be worth an interest , not specifically because of his nationality . Reckon he might consolidate his presence on the PGA tour soon .

Ref Fowler , snookerpunter , he actually hit 3 wood at that fateful ( for him ) hole , just unlucky it pitched on a downslope and kicked on . Fairly shocked the 1.03 punters .

Giving j walters another go this week
Koepka and bubba at pebble
Little on spieth/ walters double

REED or ROSE to WIN - will consider MICKELSON, SNED's, WALKER & Michael LOWRY after first round.

Also in with CHARL & RUMFORD in Pretoria CC + ew dbls ROSE/REED.

Got 350/1 here on Lasse Jensen on Tues to win  The Tshwane Open,    IN the  Pebble Beach i had a good bet on Jimmy Walker 19/1 and backed POD and Jason Kokrak for smaller stakes. Goodluck with your bets lads.

Gone for a bit of a curve ball this week in the Tshwane thing.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ew at 40/1

It's an Irish jolly at 5.50pm with Shane & Pod playing alongside JP and Dermot Desmond. They are playing the so called easiest course at Monterrey Peninsula and hopefully they can get some birdies going and feed off each other. Interest on both for first round leader.

Shane Lowry 33/1 ew
Padraig 66/1 ew and 130's win here.

Mc cleans priced up on Tues nite, seem to have separated into 3 courses now, the early worm.Laddies priced up similar few weeks ago, can't remember tournament, backfired on me then though. You can still get decent prices here, not much liquidity though.

Monterrey course played 3 shots easier than the other 2 yesterday. Most of the big guns who struggled somewhat yesterday are playing there today, expect most of them to move forward by end of play. Padraig missed only 3 fairways and was punished each time unfortunately. Playing pebble today, hopefully he can get the putter hot. Taken him @ 6/4 to BT Lowry in their 2 ball, they are showing these two live on Live@ on the PGA Tour site from 5.06, nearly 6 he rounds though with amateurs

Phil is the man.

Muck this 40/1 ....Hiroshi Iwata playing like he owns the place !

Phil and ROSE both had a bogey on the easy Monterey Peninsula (feels like a two shot swing) where JB Homeboy is -2thru6.

Apple V CMiyc

Sh1te, even I shot a better score than Poor Paul Dunne on PB +6thru16.

*SUNG KANG

33's 1/5 4places too

Phil and Rose in prime position to take a stranglehold on this at Pebble Beach today, but anyone of 30 possible yet. Pod had a poor finish yesterday but on the whole seems to be playing fine, bookies have him outsider again against Lowry at the tricky spyglass course, doubling up from yesterday @ 6/4 again.

Phil playing as well as he ever has.