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padlock
26 Jan 16 12:14
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Date Joined: 15 Jul 08
| Topic/replies: 9,295 | Blogger: padlock's blog
Early start in quatar on wednesday this week. All about course form in farmers imo,seems advantage for long hitters
Backed pepperell,wiesberger and kjelden in quatar so far
Jb holmes in farmers top5 and win,and stallings top ten and win look bit of value
shane lowry could go well also so waiting on few more prices to be matched
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Report Deplasterer January 26, 2016 1:06 PM GMT
The birdie fest of the past few weeks will come to an end this week, with this beast, with the south course the 2nd hardest par 72 last year on pga tour, which included all the major courses. The north course plays about a shot and a half easier which will be played on Thursday and Friday, so those playing first round leader markets should hold fire till tee times are drawn tomorrow, were an edge can be found by cutting field in half for this.

Obviously length off the tee is crucial and course and current form are also factors I am taking into this, tough at best of times getting an outright winner, but as my two picks find if hard to get their heads in front, I am sticking to place markets only for this week.

Charles Howell is top 25 in driving and scrambling stats for the year and out of 7 tournaments in the wrap around season has 6 top 20's and is also the leading money winner in the field at this event, which tells us he knows how to get a paycheck here, but that is chuckys problem, rarely wins and loves to place, the harchibald of the golf world.

Nobody is in better form than Jamie Lovemark, 3 top 10's last 3 starts and is also in the top 25 this season on driving average. Still relatively young but has still to get his head in front and showed temperament issues on the back nine on Sunday when tied for the lead with Dufner, eventually finishing tied 6th. Like Howell, I am dodging for win  purposes.

Charles Howell Top 5 11/1, Top 10 11/2

Jamie Lovemark Top 5 16/1 Top 10 13/2

If both these are given favourable draws tomorrow and play the north course on Thursday, I will have a dabble on both ew for first round leader.

Best of luck.
Report huddys January 26, 2016 2:45 PM GMT
Ye it's a brilliant field in America sadly won't be the same without Tiger,gone for two player this week against the field,
1st selection is Snedekar who has showning he's back to his best this year,and he has also shown his liken to this event in the past,
2nd selection is Patrick Reed,has been one of the most consistent players this last few months,never really happened for him last week,but last weeks tournament more a pitch and putt event than a proper event like this,

Now onto Europe were my main bet which is a maximum e/w bet for me is Brendan Grace,won this event last year and has played solid golf in his last two events,finishing in the top 10 in each event,
Couldn't but throw a few quid e/w on Bello who has been placed third twice over the last 5 years,
Last bet in Europe is Bjeeregarrd who has been placed playing some lovely golf at the end of last year,saying that he missed the cut last week,but it was his first start of the year,

Selections
Snedekar e/w 18/1 1/5 odds 7 places,
Patrick Reed e/w 25/1 1/5 odds 7 places,

Europe,
Brendan Grace e/w 8/1,main bet of the week,
Bello e/w 40/1,
Bjeeregarrd e/w 80/1,

Bello 40/1 first round leader,

Also done small permed e/w doubles on the selections from both events,
Best of luck this weeks lads,and well done callit another winning week for you,
Report newapproach January 26, 2016 9:42 PM GMT
Cream tends to rise to the top @ Torrey Pines - Gone for 2 @ the top of the market:

Jason Day 13/2
Won this last year and had a nice pipe-opener in Kapalua when T10. Will be keen to get on the board early and sure to go well. Seems in a great frame of mind for year ahead judged by post tournament comments a fortnight ago

Phil Mickelson 22/1
Very positive start following major swing changes last week. I was dubious about him given his terrible form last year but impossible not to be impressed by showing last week. He said prior to last week that he wasn't ready to win @ Humana Challenge but would be cherry ripe for this week following the outing. He is a dual winner here and seems very keen to start the season strongly

2 very obvious picks but hopeful of a strong showing. Good luck all.
Report Snookerpunter January 26, 2016 11:57 PM GMT
Cracking entertainment last, hopefully this week can be as enjoyable(and profitable)

Two decent events, with some of the worlds finest heading both markets.

To Qatar first where Branden Grace and Sergio Garcia started out as 8-1 joint favourites. Grace comes here as defending champion, and has been unbelievably consistent of late. He hasn't got the win his play has deserved, but I wouldn't be questioning his bottle just yet. He should have won in his homeland 3 weeks ago, but that aside he has been taking on the worlds elite.

He showed no sign of going off the boil in a stellar field last week, and its very hard to envisage him not taking a firm hand in the finish here.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing Garcia at the current 10-1. Backing him to level stakes at that price the last 9 years would have yielded a profit, and he is entitled to be involved again. I had gone with 4 others before his price drifted though, so wont play him now.

One who is a monstrous price is David Howell. 170 on here is a cracking price. He showed up well last week, and like a few always plays well in this part of the world, his adopted home. He has missed a couple of cuts here of late, but hasn't been arriving in the vein of form that he is this time. Simply too big a price.

66-1 for FRL is worth a tickle too.

Another bringing good form from last week is Alejandro Canizares. He threatened the win for a period before finishing a fine 5th. Top 10 here the last two years, he will be fancying his chances of going close once again.

With winds forecast for the week, it offers a chance for Soren Kjeldsen to add to his Irish Open success in similar conditions last year. He didn't trouble the judge last week, but never does in Abu Dhabi. Conditions this week can see him in a far better light, and if it does get very tough, he will adapt better than  most.

Another fine links and wind player is Mikko Ilonen. Beaten in a playoff here two years ago, he had a fine tune up last week, and can outplay his odds.

A player I don't really entertain in the Outright market is Cabrera Bello. He's just too flaky over the weekends. But he does do very regularly is produce low Thursday/Friday rounds. He's out early, loves this part of the world, and comes here off another excellent showing last week. All of which makes the 40-1 on him for FRL well worth taking.

4pts e.w Branden Grace 8-1
.8pt e.w Alejandro Canizares 40-1
.4pt e.w Soren Kjeldsen 80-1
.5pt e.w Mikko Ilonen 66-1
.3pt David Howell @ 170, .3pt Top 5 @ 21

.5pt e.w Rafa Cabrera Bello 40-1 FRL
.3pt e.w David Howell 66-1 FRL

Onto the Farmers, which sees Jason Day return as champion. I backed him last year, and had him down on the list this time around too after a very similar warm up at the Hyundai.

I thought he might be 10s though, and may have been interested if got 8s with 6 places. He did open 8s in a place, but just 5 places, and when news came that he is using a new driver I felt it was an unknown that you don't want when backing a short priced fav. The most likely winner, but not for me at the price.

A player who is thriving with a new driver is Brandt Snedeker. Slightly unlucky two weeks ago, he is primed for success IMO.

His putting was slightly shy of its brilliant best, but the work done with the new driver may have resulted in a slight lack of practise on the greens. Such is his confidence with the big stick, he used it twice in the playoff when he probably shouldn't. But that tells a lot, and he can have worked on his putting in the interim. He comes to a course he has had tremendous success at, in superb form. He will be very hard to beat.

Sticking with a player I felt was ripe for the win reaped dividends with Dufner last week. Two more players I am more than happy to stand by are Patrick Reed and Phil Mickleson.

Reed didn't light it up last week, but at the end of the day, it is a bit of a carnival event. This is a player who is more and more focussing on the big ones. This is an event steeped in quality winners, and he will want hisname on the roll of honour. Mid div on debut here in 2013, he is now a far more accomplished player, and given the quality of his play for the last 3 months, he is far too big a price here.

Phil was excellent last week. His driving will have delighted him, and had he holed a few more putts he may have had a hand in the playoff. Like Snedeker, he can be confident in that stick now, and if Phil is driving well, he can win anything anywhere. Maybe starting here. I usually prefer to back Phil at inflated odds off the back of a poor week, but given the crossroads he was at in his career, the confidence gained form last weeks showing cannot be overstated.

Two players at bigger odds with very good track record here are Charles Howell and [b]Nick Watney.

Howell may not be win material, but at 50-1 with 7 places he is worth backing. 5 top tens here in the last 11 years, along with 2 other top 20s. A player who comes here pretty much at the peak oh his powers, it doesn't need much imagination to see him bang there again come Sunday.

He is a very good bet at 2-1 for Top 20. The stats are there, the current form is there. The 2-1 shouldn't be there, but it is.

Nick Watney is not a player I am mad about, but he pops up every now and then at his favourite haunts, and this is certainly one of them.

A winner here in 2009, he has since been top 10 in 4 of the next 6 years. He comes here off a missed cut, but at 100-1 there has to be some negatives.

1.5pt e.w Brandt Snedeker 20-1(7 places)
1.2pt e.w Phil Mickleson 25-1
1.2pt e.w Patrick Reed 25-1 (7 places)
.6pt e.w Charles Howell 50-1
.3pt e.w Nick Watney 100-1

4pts Charles Howell Top 20 2-1

Outrights Week 3 - Staked:33pts/Returns:68.15pts
2/3 Balls - Staked:11.5pts/Returns:7.13pts

Total Staked 2016: 95.5pts
Total Returns: 175.65pts
Running Total.....+80.15pts
R.O.I.........83.93%

Best of Luck All.
Report Deplasterer January 27, 2016 11:15 AM GMT
Howell given favourable draw, out first and playing the "easier" north course to boot. Only Ladbrokes and betfair showing prices at present on first round leader market. 40/1 fair with Laddies, as I see a massive bias on this market, (nothing as sure that someone on the south course will shoot a 66!) Worth the plunge in this rather than tournament outright, live fast and die young this week on the golf anyway.

40/1 C Howell 111 ew
Report Deplasterer January 27, 2016 4:54 PM GMT
Some of the books caught with their pants down here, most have taken down first round leader markets and formed new markets, split into north and south for  First rnd Lead. Howell now 22/1 with boylesDevil. Still available at around 40's for win purposes on here but no place available.
Report TheWasp January 27, 2016 5:02 PM GMT
first round was this morning deplasterer   howell was around  1 over I think
Report Deplasterer January 27, 2016 5:07 PM GMT
Charles Howell in America, wasp, starts 5 pm 2mor.
Report TheWasp January 27, 2016 5:09 PM GMT
sorry deplaster thought you were on about david howell
early start caught me out wanted to back george coetzee  will have to settle for 14/1 now,  best of luck with howell
Report Deplasterer January 27, 2016 5:59 PM GMT
Plans in place, but he could shoot in the 70's, but nice all the same to get an edge on them for once. Rarely back euro but George is well placed but you need Valium backing him!Laugh
Report Snookerpunter January 27, 2016 9:54 PM GMT
I wasn't going to get involved in the Singapore Open, but the more I look at it, the more Byeong Hun An looks a cracking bet.

He threw away a few sillyshots last week, but still finished on the same score as this weeks 11-8 favourite Jordan Spieth. I'm Spieths biggest fan, but I really don't think he wants to be in Singapore. And has said he will be organising his schedule a lot better to avoid such a happening next year. He is not a player who just goes through the motions very often, but this may be one of them weeks.

He strikes me as a player who needs to be at maximum intensity to be near his brilliant best. All credit ti him if he achieves that this week. I doubt it.

Hun An will view this as a tremendous opportunity to get one over the world number one, and with very little else to worry about if he brings the same level of play from last week, he wont be beaten by any/many of these journeymen.

13-2 each way is an absolute steal IMO.

4pts e.w Byeong Hun An 13-2
Report Snookerpunter January 27, 2016 11:30 PM GMT
2pts Soren Kjeldsen 8.40am 3 ball 9-4
Report anfeild January 28, 2016 12:28 AM GMT
And if anyone the clowns on here think i'm after timing i'll post the slip.
Report Snookerpunter January 28, 2016 1:20 PM GMT
2pts Phil Mickleson 18.40 3 ball 7-4

2pts Nick Watney 17.30 3 ball 7-4
Report Snookerpunter January 29, 2016 12:25 AM GMT
If Cadburys did leaderboards, they probably couldn't get one any Flakier than the current situation in Qatar. Never mind the chocolate, it could be Pampers that is needed over the next two days.

Colsaerts, Bello, Bourdy, Fleetwood, Coetzee, Edberg, even the bould Sergio. None would you have your last dollars on to hole a 5footer for the win.

Given the wind is to be up around 25k all day, and gusting above 30, there could be some big numbers out there.

I don't usually top up on one at this stage of a tournament, especially from 6 behind, but given I would feel the real lead is 8 under then suddenly Soren Kjeldsen doesn't seem too far back. 120 on here, or 90 e.w in the shops is worth a bet.

Add in his aptitude for the conditions he will face tomorrow, and the fact he will probably have half his round played before the strong wind arrives, he starts to look an excellent stab.

He finished poorly today, bogeying 17 and missing a 3 footer for bird after an excellent chip on 18. Thankfully he still landed the 3 ball, and though those two shots lost cost him a better position, they have inflated his price.

He again looks an excellent bet for his 3 ball tomorrow at 13-10.

.2pt e.w Soren Kjeldsen 90-1 (4 places)
.2pt win @ 120 (for trading)

3pts Soren Kjeldsen 6.45am 3 ball 13-10
Report Snookerpunter January 29, 2016 12:34 AM GMT
Cracking back 9 from Phil on the tougher South Course tonight. His game really does look in good shape, and he is a deserving favourite as it stands.

Tempted to add Justin Rose at around the 25 mark. He was quite a few shots better than he signed for today. With the rough up, the tough weekend ahead will play right into his hands. Had he had a prep before this I wouldn't hesitate.
Report Snookerpunter January 29, 2016 4:35 PM GMT
Nick Watney needed a closing eagle to share the spoils in his 3 ball last night, and heads to the tougher South Course today.

I would rate him an even better on this course.

2pts Nick Watney 18.30 3 ball 7-4.
Report Deplasterer January 30, 2016 1:33 PM GMT
8/1 jolly cruises in our in Qatar. WD Huddys in getting first and second and Callit joints in with the winner.
Report Snookerpunter January 30, 2016 4:47 PM GMT
Top notch Huddys, some forecast!!
Report TheWasp January 30, 2016 4:52 PM GMT
Great tipping lads as usual top stuff callit and huddys
Report frank60 January 30, 2016 5:14 PM GMT
Well done lads, cracking threadHappy
Report padlock January 31, 2016 9:18 AM GMT
Good shout on grace ,conjested leaderboard in usa,hope jb holmes has a low round today..
Report Deplasterer January 31, 2016 12:34 PM GMT
This was wide open before the forecast of wind and rain, tee times moved forward to 3 pm our time. Jimmy Walker only got 25% of fairways yesterday, which is usually a death knell around this course but somehow shot 68. At just one off the pace took a chance on him managing conditions. Dustin will not like the forecast.

Jimmy Walker win 7.2
D Johnson lay top 5 2.48
Report Snookerpunter January 31, 2016 3:08 PM GMT
I laid DJ yesterday at few prices between 3.95 and 5.5. He is still too short. Would love to see Jonas Blixt win it.
Report frank60 January 31, 2016 3:17 PM GMT
Jonas Blixt 20/1 here at the min Callit, well worth a bet, i backed Walker as well. goodluck
Report padlock January 31, 2016 6:56 PM GMT
Ffs the weather making this a lottery,holmes double bogeyd 1st Sad surely monday finish here..
Report padlock January 31, 2016 7:09 PM GMT
Weather been nasty esp to those that went out earlier up to -6
Report pa lapsy January 31, 2016 7:11 PM GMT
Playing now, pity with the conditions it would be good viewing, Jacobson and Swafford(today) my lucky dips in this.
Report Snookerpunter January 31, 2016 7:12 PM GMT
Yeah I wish they just stayed out in it. Howell had top 20 chance if they stuck at it. Prob be a good few holes for the jäger groups in calm conditions tomorrow.
Report Snookerpunter January 31, 2016 7:47 PM GMT
Hope to God the wind stays up, and they stay out there. Snedeker to 4 under. Considering 5 under could win, and that he is ten holes ahead on the course......
Report huddys January 31, 2016 8:16 PM GMT
Yes the weather terrible out there,come on sned lets post a score,
Report tobywong. January 31, 2016 8:27 PM GMT
sned should be fav now
Report frank60 January 31, 2016 8:59 PM GMT
2.6 to win for Sned now,
Report Snookerpunter January 31, 2016 9:01 PM GMT
Is he??

I hadn't looked as it's always ahead of the play. I will b laying some off shortly, as done the e.w double with Grace.
Report Deplasterer January 31, 2016 9:23 PM GMT
C' Mon back poLaugh
Report Snookerpunter January 31, 2016 9:48 PM GMT
I think Jimmy should be fav.

Back 9 is certainly not as hard as front 9. Commentators haven't seen that, and there views are affecting the market.

I hope I'm wrong!!
Report applehunter January 31, 2016 9:55 PM GMT
38.4 : Average stroke for back 9 today.
Report pa lapsy January 31, 2016 10:00 PM GMT
Last thing ye wanted.
Report huddys January 31, 2016 10:05 PM GMT
Ah JesusSad
Report Snookerpunter January 31, 2016 10:15 PM GMT
Get em back out please!!

Howell in 21st!!
Report frank60 January 31, 2016 10:17 PM GMT
Sned HIT 1.61 on the machine, a full point more now , hope you laid on the low side Callit
Report Snookerpunter January 31, 2016 10:20 PM GMT
Laid at 2.04 and 1.75 Frank. Mostly at 2.04.

Don't lay off as a rule, but as the double pays multiples of my usual payout expectancy, I thought it wise.

Still win a lot more on Sned than the field. And am far from happy over them being pulled off!!!

He was 1.9 before the horn, went out to 3.2 after it.
Report Deplasterer January 31, 2016 10:30 PM GMT
Lads its was easy with forecast, yous are wise to the world
Report huddys February 1, 2016 7:50 AM GMT
Any idea what time the golf starts at today?
Report padlock February 1, 2016 9:23 AM GMT
11am local, 4pm ourtime,surely on sky at 4 pm
Report Snookerpunter February 1, 2016 9:28 AM GMT
Winds meant to be gusting to 60mph at that stage though, so though that's the scheduled restart....I doubt it.

Sky aren't scheduled to show it anytime as far as I can see. But I imagine when something concrete is announced, it will be on the red button at the very least.

Just reading your post properly now Padlock, 11am would be 7pm our time. That may be updated so, as initially it was 8am-4pm our time.

Winds not predicted to be as bad at that time, which would explain the betting.
Report padlock February 1, 2016 9:50 AM GMT
Oh yes ,my mistake,so its 6pm
Report padlock February 1, 2016 9:50 AM GMT
Lol i mean 7pm
Ffs
Report padlock February 1, 2016 9:59 AM GMT
Slim chance of top5 for holmes as looks likely to bogey 14
Report frank60 February 1, 2016 12:09 PM GMT
Many would be hateing the strong winds but i like it now and then, you get to see shots that you wouldn,t normally see,it beats guys winning on -20 plus, I know the golf Purest will   strongly disagree with me .
Report Clerkmore February 1, 2016 2:05 PM GMT
It starts at 11.00 Eastern Time which is 16.00 our time. On Sky at 4.
Report Snookerpunter February 1, 2016 2:44 PM GMT
I wonder will they send em out at 4 though? Be the worst of the weather.
Report the jolly February 1, 2016 2:53 PM GMT
to be fair to all the field, they have to send them out once it is deemed playable.   That was the jist of the studio conversation last night.
Report padlock February 1, 2016 3:37 PM GMT
Think its 5pm now according to twitter golf person ?
Report padlock February 1, 2016 3:38 PM GMT
Agree frank i like seeing the pros in wind and rain etc
Report padlock February 1, 2016 4:26 PM GMT
6pm now apparently,lots of trees fell etc
Report wildmanfromborneo February 1, 2016 5:00 PM GMT
Snookerpunter and Huddys both put up Snedeker as their main bet,his round last nightwas one of the best for years,it deserved to win him the tournament.

It would have won him the tournament but they took the rest of the field off the course,he now goes from certainty to no chance,.
What the Americans would call a bad beat.

I think K J Choi will win,he has had a good nights rest ,one he needed he knows how to win and should pick up a birdie or two now the fatigue element is gone.
Report huddys February 1, 2016 6:51 PM GMT
wind picking up,
Report frank60 February 1, 2016 7:05 PM GMT
Looking good for Sned now, the closing holes looking to tough with wind against.
Report workrider February 1, 2016 7:39 PM GMT
Huddys, Snooker, hope Sned holds on for the both of ye , well done no matter what happens , great tipping lads...
Report padlock February 1, 2016 7:42 PM GMT
Wd on sned, f holmes missed top 5 Sad
Report frank60 February 1, 2016 8:31 PM GMT
Well done lads,justice was done,Grin
Report huddys February 1, 2016 8:49 PM GMT
Cheers lads great week,and well done callit another cracking week for you again,load up the wheelbarrow for Rory this week,looks a cert,could win in a common canter,very short in the betting tho,
Report applehunter February 1, 2016 8:58 PM GMT
top stuff again this week.

I've been keeping my powder dry so far but will be taking a look this week.
Report pa lapsy February 1, 2016 9:17 PM GMT
Fair play,blistering start to the year with the golf threads,ye are making it look easy and it is anything but.
150/1 dbs aren't too commmon, i can only imagine you are buzzin bigtime,Huddys.
Both winners picked out by yourself as well Snooker, fair play to ye.
Report TheWasp February 1, 2016 9:26 PM GMT
Different gravy huddys and callit , i thought gobshees e/w lays were profitable but this is a whole other level
Report kavvie February 1, 2016 9:44 PM GMT
unreal lads well done...hope ye made plenty..and to think there were a few assho1es critising  the lads a few weeks ago..
Report Kelly February 1, 2016 10:02 PM GMT
Well done the tipsters , and getting the double especially worthy , picking winners outright at the golf has not been easy over the last few years since Tiger "disappeared" .
Report Ozymandius February 1, 2016 11:45 PM GMT
Great stuff lads, well done.
Report snap crackle and pop February 1, 2016 11:55 PM GMT
Incredible stuff! Followed in on the 2 winners myself but didn't do the double unfortunately
Report the jolly February 2, 2016 11:14 AM GMT
wow - what a start to the year for the golf threads. Well done lads. Callit re-installed as number 1 ranking with Huddys a close second.
Report Snookerpunter February 2, 2016 11:17 AM GMT
For anyone fancying Bubba this week, if they are able to garner the 14s available at the moment, I very much doubt that will last.

Massive price.
Report Snookerpunter February 2, 2016 11:24 AM GMT
As is the 30s on Matsuyama.
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