Alfred Dunhill/Oz Open Golf

After the cracker served up in Dubai last week, its back to more typical end of season style events in South Africa and Australia. But I believe there to be a cracking bet in both.

When Charl Schwartzel has arrived at Leopard Creek in good form, he generally wins, and nearly always contends. 3 wins and 3 seconds in 8 visits before last years below par performance says it all. True, in a lot of them years he may not have had a player the calibre of a current Branden Grace to deal with, but there are reasons to believe Charl will be the one at the peak of his powers this week.

It was noted on here last week, that Charl himself said that he feels he is in a period where he is playing his best golf for years. He finished a shot behind Grace last week, but though that may go down in Graces book as another near miss in a season of what might have beens, it would have been a huge fillip in the confidence of the former Masters winners. Charl will be buzzing coming here, a venue which must be his favourite anywhere in the world.

He also had a week off during the 'Final Series'. Grace played all 4, and though without doubt the danger man, he may just have had enough for the year.

Louis Oosthuizen is a class act, but has been riddled with injuries the last few years, and they are probably to blame for his inconsistent form since the British Open. Obviously a potential winner, but at the prices its Charl all day for me.

Given his track record, recent upturn in form, very confident inner self and freshness, he looks as near a certainty to contend that you will find.

Lucas Bjerregaard has some unfinished business with this beautiful venue, following an 89 on payday last year, and is a player most definitely on the up. After a busy spell he may well be all golfed out himself, but is worth risking at 20-1 in a field where so few have realistic chances.

5pts e.w Charl Schwartzel 13-2
1.5pt e.w Lucas Bjerregaard 20-1

In the Australian Open, Jordan Spieth is the most likely winner. But like in South Africa there are valid grounds for believing the second fav is where the value lies.

Adam Scott should have won last week. Why he didn't is the big stumbling block for potential backers this week. He went 11 under for his first 27 holes, yet managed to be 9 over for his next 27. For a player of his calibre, that is borderline disgraceful. Yet even given that horror show for a third of the tournament, plus a double bogey 7 on a reachable par 5 on Sunday, he still finished 5th. That just serves to highlight how little strength in depth there is in these Oz events.

Yes Jordan was imperious in victory here last year, and he seems to be taking preparations for his defence mighty seriously, but his presence this week may just help Adam Scott a little. Its a while since Scott has won, and he obviously buckled last week, but he would have had huge media scrutiny following his every move. That will be much more Jordans problem this week, and though he will be tough to beat, it may help Scott beat the rest. If Adam had played them 27 holes like he played the rest, he would have won by 10 shots last week. And been about 3-1 this week. As it stands, backing e.w at 13-2 is giving us 13-8 just to finish top 5.

5pts e.w Adam Scott 13-2

If someone put a gun to my head, and said I had two choices, Scott and Charl to both place, or one or both to fail....I would have no hesitation plumping for the former. Probably sounds ridiculous as it works out as near a 6-1 shot, but that just serves to highlight what a good bet it is. With good reason for believing both should be a good deal shorter in the win markets as well, its a bet I believe is worth having a good go at.

3pts e.w Double Schwartzel & Scott (both at 13-2)

With the UK Championship starting in the Barbican I couldn't help throwing Trump in for a Trixie aswell!!