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24 Nov 15 20:28
Date Joined: 27 Sep 11
| Topic/replies: 1,249 | Blogger: callitasucit's blog
After the cracker served up in Dubai last week, its back to more typical end of season style events in South Africa and Australia. But I believe there to be a cracking bet in both.

When Charl Schwartzel has arrived at Leopard Creek in good form, he generally wins, and nearly always contends. 3 wins and 3 seconds in 8 visits before last years below par performance says it all. True, in a lot of them years he may not have had a player the calibre of a current Branden Grace to deal with, but there are reasons to believe Charl will be the one at the peak of his powers this week.

It was noted on here last week, that Charl himself said that he feels he is in a period where he is playing his best golf for years. He finished a shot behind Grace last week, but though that may go down in Graces book as another near miss in a season of what might have beens, it would have been a huge fillip in the confidence of the former Masters winners. Charl will be buzzing coming here, a venue which must be his favourite anywhere in the world.

He also had a week off during the 'Final Series'. Grace played all 4, and though without doubt the danger man, he may just have had enough for the year.

Louis Oosthuizen is a class act, but has been riddled with injuries the last few years, and they are probably to blame for his inconsistent form since the British Open. Obviously a potential winner, but at the prices its Charl all day for me.

Given his track record, recent upturn in form, very confident inner self and freshness, he looks as near a certainty to contend that you will find.

Lucas Bjerregaard has some unfinished business with this beautiful venue, following an 89 on payday last year, and is a player most definitely on the up. After a busy spell he may well be all golfed out himself, but is worth risking at 20-1 in a field where so few have realistic chances.

5pts e.w Charl Schwartzel 13-2
1.5pt e.w Lucas Bjerregaard 20-1

In the Australian Open, Jordan Spieth is the most likely winner. But like in South Africa there are valid grounds for believing the second fav is where the value lies.

Adam Scott should have won last week. Why he didn't is the big stumbling block for potential backers this week. He went 11 under for his first 27 holes, yet managed to be 9 over for his next 27. For a player of his calibre, that is borderline disgraceful. Yet even given that horror show for a third of the tournament, plus a double bogey 7 on a reachable par 5 on Sunday, he still finished 5th. That just serves to highlight how little strength in depth there is in these Oz events.

Yes Jordan was imperious in victory here last year, and he seems to be taking preparations for his defence mighty seriously, but his presence this week may just help Adam Scott a little. Its a while since Scott has won, and he obviously buckled last week, but he would have had huge media scrutiny following his every move. That will be much more Jordans problem this week, and though he will be tough to beat, it may help Scott beat the rest. If Adam had played them 27 holes like he played the rest, he would have won by 10 shots last week. And been about 3-1 this week. As it stands, backing e.w at 13-2 is giving us 13-8 just to finish top 5.

5pts e.w Adam Scott 13-2

If someone put a gun to my head, and said I had two choices, Scott and Charl to both place, or one or both to fail....I would have no hesitation plumping for the former. Probably sounds ridiculous as it works out as near a 6-1 shot, but that just serves to highlight what a good bet it is. With good reason for believing both should be a good deal shorter in the win markets as well, its a bet I believe is worth having a good go at.

3pts e.w Double Schwartzel & Scott (both at 13-2)

With the UK Championship starting in the Barbican I couldn't help throwing Trump in for a Trixie aswell!!
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Report huddys November 24, 2015 9:03 PM GMT
Great right up callit,i was thinking the double looks a smashing bet aswell during the week,as you said id be shocked if they don't get placed at the worst,

Only bet of the week in the golf is the e/w double,13/2-6/1,best of luck lads this week,
Report applehunter November 25, 2015 9:41 AM GMT
On the Schwartzel/Scott EW DBL as well.
Report pa lapsy November 25, 2015 10:07 AM GMT
Not two fellas i'd ever be rushing to back but with the two poor fields i can see why ye are so sweet on the place part at least.
Love to see the golf thread fellas have a good one and hope the thread is hopping on Sunday afternoon, i'm in also.
Report callitasucit November 25, 2015 10:33 AM GMT
Wouldn't be two of my favourites either Pa. There will definitely be a low trade put in on Charl if Scott does the business!!
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 5:27 PM GMT
The Emirates Australian Open at the Golden Bear's re-designed THE AUSTRALIAN GC kicks off in less than 3 hours.

    19:50        Richard Green (13/8)        Ryan Fox (7/4)        Andrew Dodt (12/5)   
    19:55        Bryson DeChambeau (13/8)        Brett Rumford (17/10)        Peter Senior (12/5)   
    20:00        Peter Uihlein (7/5)        Jordan Niebrugge (17/10)        James Nitties (3)   
    20:05        Jordan Spieth (4/5)        Lee Westwood (3)        Geoff Ogilvy (9/2)   
    20:15        Steven Bowditch (13/10)        Greg Chalmers (13/8)        Darren Clarke (4)   
    20:20        Michael Sim (6/4)        Terry Pilkadaris (15/8)        Stephen Dartnall (27/11)   
    20:25        Nick Cullen (15/13)        Michael Hendry (5/2)        Peter Fowler (11/4)   
    20:50        Rohan Blizard (17/11)        Matthew Guyatt (7/4)        Ashley Hall (9/4)   
    00:45        Rhein Gibson (6/4)        Jake Higginbotham (2)        Mark Brown (9/4)   
    00:50        Stuart Appleby (7/4)        Stephen Allan (9/5)        Peter Lonard (13/5)   
    01:00        George McNeill (6/4)        Cameron Smith (13/8)        Nick O Hern (3)   
    01:10        Adam Scott (15/13)        John Senden (7/4)        Nicolas Colsaerts (7/2)   
    01:15        Aaron Townsend (16/11)        David McKenzie (2)        Michael Wright (2)   
    01:20        Marc Leishman (13/10)        Matthew Jones (13/8)        Robert Allenby (18/5)   
    01:30        Marcus Fraser (11/8)        Matthew Goggin (23/10)        Ryan Ruffels (12/5)   
    01:35        Matthew Millar (6/4)        Daniel Fox (7/4)        Nathan Green (3)   

Jordan to love 'em n leave 'em Spiethless one last time !
Top 5 Bryson DeChambeau ew 40's
Top 5 Marcus Fraser 33's owes me one.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 7:36 PM GMT
All aboard the Schwartzel Blue Train in South Africa ! but ew dbl with SPIETH pays 20/1 and FRASER pays 300/1

+ Distant View/Roy The Boy’s John Higgins for those Snookerpunter lovers out dare Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 8:08 PM GMT
AND THERE OFF...on the tee from Texas, USA...Jordan Spieth.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 8:11 PM GMT
EARLY START near Kruger Park in SA as well

    05:10        Gregory Bourdy (11/8)        Garth Mulroy (15/8)        Ulrich Van Den Berg (7/2)   
    05:20        Jaco Van Zyl (6/4)        Alexander Levy (15/8)        Hennie Otto (23/10)   
    05:30        Branden Grace (5/4)        Louis Oosthuizen (7/4)        Joost Luiten (16/5)   
    05:40        Lucas Bjerregaard (11/10)        Jbe Kruger (9/4)        Jacques Blaauw (10/3)   
    06:00        Craig Lee (13/8)        Adilson Da Silva (15/8)        Danie Van Tonder (5/2)   
    10:00        Ricardo Gouveia (13/8)        Brandon Stone (9/5)        Dean Burmester (13/5)   
    10:10        Darren Fichardt (6/4)        Pelle Edberg (2)        Justin Walters (5/2)   
    10:20        Lee Slattery (13/8)        Trevor Fisher Jnr (7/4)        Richard Sterne (23/10)   
    10:30        Charl Schwartzel (11/10)        Thomas Aiken (11/4)        Eddie Pepperell (14/5)   
    10:40        Romain Wattel (6/4)        Jean Hugo (2)        Keith Horne (11/4)   
    11:10        David Drysdale (6/4)        Nacho Elvira (9/4)        Jaco Ahlers (23/10)   
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 8:28 PM GMT
World Number 1 Spieth opens his Aussie Open Golf title defense with a birdie!
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 8:45 PM GMT
Adam Scott, who spent 11 weeks as the World Number 1 in 2014, is out in the afternoon 38° heat !

Prefer the Spiethless side of the draw with the forecast for showers tomorrow morning.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 8:47 PM GMT
"Guys, we apologize for early scoring issue. A technology glitch and we will be back on board very soon. Thanks for your patience".
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 8:50 PM GMT
The wind is up already...stronger later too.
Report huddys November 25, 2015 9:05 PM GMT
Not what I wanted to hear about the wind with Scott out later,
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 9:25 PM GMT
ONE TO WATCH & Someone we expect to hear a lot of this season is Portugal's Ricardo GOUVEIA 66/1 with BetV but on @ 50's.

Turned Pro 2014 (plus 3) and set records tumbling in his rookie season on the European Challenge Tour, topping the Road to Oman Rankings following an enthralling battle with Frenchman Sebastien Gros. Claimed his third career title and second of 2015 at the NBO Golf Classic Grand Final to take his total to €251,592, beating the record Edoardo Molinari set in 2009 for earnings in a season.
Climbed to 84th position in the OWGRanking following his victory at the season-ender to tie Molinari’s record as highest-ranked Challenge Tour player in history, having already become the highest-ranked Portuguese player of all time earlier in the season.
Enjoyed an impressive amateur career, representing the University of Central Florida and playing in the 2014 Palmer Cup.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 9:43 PM GMT
Good day mate, gotta to love this commentary...
"As an indicator of course and conditions, only 10 blokes under par. 18 are square. 22 blokes in black numbers".
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 9:44 PM GMT
3BALL - Jordan Spieth -1, Lee Westwood par, Geoff Ogilvy -4
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 9:55 PM GMT
therhino  • November 25, 2015 7:48 PM GMT
Friday still windy but far less extreme. Early late looks to have an edge if the weather goes as predicted.

Scoreboard now working after working hard at technical solution...

Afternoon groups (eg Scott, Senden, Leishman) are going to find it tough in that wind !
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 10:11 PM GMT

Sports journalist with @TenNewsSydney - formerly @TenNewsPerth. Pro golfer, bachelor and a great cook.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 25, 2015 10:15 PM GMT
KJ's cousin Joon-woo Choi gets it to -2 Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 26, 2015 1:18 AM GMT
Ogilvy finishes with a bogey on 9 to be -3, Westwood double to go -1, Spieth bogey to card even round. Wind has really picked up on course...It's going to be nasty this arvo.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 26, 2015 1:19 AM GMT
Lincoln Tighe -6 leads thru 16.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 26, 2015 1:20 AM GMT
Good Start Bryson DeChambeau (Am) -1
Report applehunter November 26, 2015 9:08 AM GMT
Pleasantly surprised to wake up to see Scott at level par.

He was +3 and it was blowing a gale when I fell asleep last night.
Report callitasucit November 26, 2015 9:25 AM GMT
Yeah, not a bad round in the circumstances. Plenty of birdies, but needs to cut out those DBs.


Hopefully he gets the best of it tonight, though the forecast is for little wind, and the only rain when he will be out. Could be target practice in nice conditions for the later wave.
Report Kelly November 26, 2015 10:06 AM GMT
Was this viewable last night ?  Did not appear anywhere on any of my radar .  I suspect no one is interested in betting on this if there are no pictures .

Laid a few quid myself pre kick off on the 1st round leader market , no one has ever heard of the overnight leader  , shows how difficult it is to back winners at the golf unless you can see whats happening .
Report applehunter November 26, 2015 10:10 AM GMT
Available if you knew were to look.
Report Kelly November 26, 2015 10:23 AM GMT
P presume it is on Aussie TV , applehunter . From last nights experience though that did not generate any interest , and the Aussies cant bet in running as far as I know , so its catch 22 .
Report Kelly November 26, 2015 10:33 AM GMT
Highlights of Aussie golf on now on 405 .  Have to walk the dog though now . Might see a bit later .
Report Ozymandius November 26, 2015 11:00 AM GMT
Who needs live TV when you have The Spaceman in full-on blow-by-blow monologue mode?
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 26, 2015 5:46 PM GMT
On Cricfree but now getting the following message...

"This website has been reported to contain the following threats:
•Malicious software threat: This site contains links to viruses or other software programs that can reveal personal information stored or typed on your computer to malicious persons".

...anyone else get this ?
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 26, 2015 6:01 PM GMT
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 27, 2015 9:36 AM GMT
Highlights of the Aussie golf on again at 10.30...although some on 'ere may not want to see it.Sad
Report applehunter November 27, 2015 9:59 AM GMT
Schwartzel looking good here.

I know he goes on about his putting but it's his wedges that are weak enough part of his game IMO.
Report Ozymandius November 27, 2015 10:13 AM GMT
Feck, I only did the double, no singles.
Report applehunter November 27, 2015 10:16 AM GMT
Scott never got going and missed a couple of tiddlers to boot.

Will need a low one later to get back into it.
Report callitasucit November 27, 2015 10:50 AM GMT
V poor round from Scott.

I suppose the positive is he is only 5 back of third. Just got to hope he goes low early, and that conditions toughen up for the leaders later on.

Schwartzel seems to be meandering around in second gear, yet is 5 ahead of anyone else from his side of the draw.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 27, 2015 11:34 AM GMT
Third last group tonite Jordan Spieth (1/3) (71,68) drawn again with Geoff Ogilvy (7/2) (68,71) for the third time.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 27, 2015 11:39 AM GMT
Beautiful bunker shot there.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 27, 2015 12:21 PM GMT
Love the 'style' from Bryson DeChambeau...going along nicely tyvm.
Report frank60 November 27, 2015 12:24 PM GMT
I backed  Charl at 7.6 hope he can keep up the good work.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 27, 2015 12:30 PM GMT
Catch Me ifyoucan  • November 25, 2015 7:36 PM GMT 
All aboard the Schwartzel Blue Train in South Africa !

Report applehunter November 27, 2015 12:31 PM GMT
Looks over already.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 27, 2015 12:35 PM GMT
The Australian GC member MATT JONES is no push over......****, I may regret saying that ! Whoops
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 27, 2015 12:35 PM GMT
Report punkha1 November 27, 2015 5:33 PM GMT
Good man Frank world class aftertiming.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 28, 2015 1:21 AM GMT
Catch Me ifyoucan  • November 25, 2015 8:08 PM GMT 
...on the tee from Texas, USA...Jordan Spieth.
Report applehunter November 28, 2015 2:15 AM GMT
"Game on Ger!"
Report huddys November 28, 2015 7:56 AM GMT
Looked like Scott was getting back into it until the strong finish by the leading pair,hopefully he can get a top 5 finish,
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 28, 2015 8:37 AM GMT
Yeah Apple, Matt Jones is in bed BUT is he sleeping Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 28, 2015 8:40 AM GMT
Call it, Those dbl bogies are costing Adams. Will get T3 maybe.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 28, 2015 8:41 AM GMT
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 28, 2015 11:16 AM GMT
FOR anyone not yet on board the CHARL SCHWARTZEL Blue train........NOW IS YOUR LAST & BEST CHANCE...8/11, 4/5 in places on the sixth tee in rd3.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 28, 2015 12:47 PM GMT
SA GOLF on sky4.....Charl a little upset with his iron play ! BUT NOW MONEY ON 1/5 Devil
Report applehunter November 28, 2015 1:07 PM GMT
Short iron play is poor again today.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 28, 2015 1:16 PM GMT
Hope he's 4 ahead at the end of the day.....HE'LL NEED TO BE THE WAY HE'S PLAYIN
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 28, 2015 1:52 PM GMT
In his 156th PGA Tour start, Strayla’s own Matt Jones got his first and only PGA Tour win at the 2014 Shell Houston Open, beating Matt Kuchar on the first playoff hole when he made a 42-yard chip in for a birdie. He had previously made a 46-foot putt on the 18th hole to take the match to a playoff.

Matt Jones has to be in my portfolio with that Aussie stat, at 13/2 BetVic for ‘any other winner’ other than Yank or Euro. We remember last year’s fairy tale as he posted the low round of the Sunday with 66, including that monster putt on the final hole to force a playoff. Then holing out a bunker shot in the playoff to win his first tournament on TOUR - a kick in the nuts for Kuchar (some say Matt deserved it). This season (2015) he’s put up ten w/ends in a row and his last four have been T7, T14, 3rd and T26 last week at Valero. Like most Aussies, he can really putt and his short game is excellent so I really think he can beat all comers this week. - CMiyc (then proceeded to miss the cut ffs Whoops )
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 28, 2015 2:07 PM GMT
Nice (difficult) putt Charl...3 ahead, par 5 18th to come.
Report applehunter November 28, 2015 5:14 PM GMT
Scott 7/4 to get the Place/Place double up.
Report callitasucit November 28, 2015 10:48 PM GMT
Ya, he definitely has a chance of top 5 now Apple. A 3/4 under round should probably get it done. Sure to be a couple in front of him to be shaky tonight.

Charl was rubbish today.

Not hugely surprising, he has never convinced under the cosh. Body language was terrible, iron play worse.

But I couldn't really lay any off at current price as it seems to have factored in the fact he is a bit of a choker. He played absolutely rubbish today, didn't bird any par 5, yet shot 2 under. He really should be doing at least the same tomorrow.

That will be enough.
Report frank60 November 28, 2015 11:21 PM GMT
Hope you right Callit,.. I see tyson Fury bt Wladimir Klitschko  just now,  Klitschko was a 1.23 fav.
Report Ozymandius November 28, 2015 11:25 PM GMT
extraordinary betting heat, never saw the like of it.
Report Ozymandius November 28, 2015 11:32 PM GMT
HBO had it hands down for Fury, Vlads corner telling him he needed a knockout in the 12th to win it.  Sky apparently calling it for Vlad..which must have distorted the a history of bad decisions in Germany and Fury getting a point deducted in the 11th added to the intrigue....but Fuy was damn near 2/1 after the fight ended...and the Yanks were right, he coasted it on the scorecards.  Awful fight, but fascinating betting heat.
Report callitasucit November 28, 2015 11:35 PM GMT
Didn't see it, heard it rubbish fight?

Quite funny how Darren Clarke on the fringes of contention this week.

Have a picture of Rory, G Mac and Dazzler on the living room wall. Was thinking of taking it down, and getting a Sprinter Sacre to replace it. With G Mac doing me a turn two weeks ago, then Rory last week, I has said to the missus I must back Clarke when he appears.

Didn't. I be cutting him out of the picture if he beats Scott to a top 5!!
Report snap crackle and pop November 28, 2015 11:37 PM GMT
Only winner there was Sky box office
Report callitasucit November 28, 2015 11:37 PM GMT
Similar happened in Bernard Dunne fight few years ago Oz.

The night we won Triple Crown and Taylor won too.

Jimmy McGee was his usual patriotic self in the commentary box, and was telling all and sundry how BD was miles ahead. It was clear to all and sundry(even those full as a tinkers bra from 12 hours drinkingWink) that he was in fact behind.

But the market was skewed by Jimmy alright.
Report frank60 November 28, 2015 11:39 PM GMT
Nice summary ozy, Fury boxed for Ireland ,worth a look at Fury background on Wiki.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 29, 2015 1:46 AM GMT
On the tee from Texas USA...Jordan Spieth Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 29, 2015 1:53 AM GMT
5/4 Spieth winner But money on to win the two ball. Gona be a long (tight) nite Blush
Report applehunter November 29, 2015 2:09 AM GMT
Leaders asleep for first couple of holes.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 29, 2015 2:19 AM GMT
Looks like Pampling will post -5 with 9 under par final round
Report applehunter November 29, 2015 2:30 AM GMT
-6, 61
Report applehunter November 29, 2015 2:34 AM GMT
Scott putting well.

Needs leaders to come back to him though.
Report callitasucit November 29, 2015 7:26 AM GMT

That was mighty close. A birdie free round 2 with some hapless putting done us out of the chance of a nice coupCry

I would have been delighted with top 5 before play, but slightly galling to go so close.

I dodged the bullet though!!
Report applehunter November 29, 2015 10:19 AM GMT
Scott traded as fav at one stage.

In the end he gave himself too much to do after the first 2 rounds.

Report Kelly November 29, 2015 10:42 AM GMT
Couldn't get that link to work , catchme , but thanks for the info .

Looks like the each way part of the bet is going OK . There was some volatility last night on the markets , Scott was below 3 at the end of his round , and I think I saw 10 for the winner , but with no pictures I hadn't a clue what was going on .

There was no activity anywhere outside of the main win market , I was tinkering with the place market as well as with the main market , but zero activity on the place market apart from some overnight bits and pieces .  Leader market may as well not have existed .

Pampling saved me on the win market , he came into 7 or so after his fabulous round , went to bed before the end of play though , having scrubbed any lays .  Great course .

Hope Charl holds on for the place , no bet on any market on the SA event for me . Out to walk the dog , proper walk , but its blowing a gale up here , and wet to boot , overtrousers !  Good luck !
Report Ozymandius November 29, 2015 10:49 AM GMT
Geez, we came close!  Unlucky lads.
Report huddys November 29, 2015 2:40 PM GMT
We nearly had the xmas paid for,well done Callit your banging in the winners recently,
Report frank60 November 29, 2015 2:58 PM GMT
Well done Callit, Rory last week as well.Excellent tipping
Report padlock November 29, 2015 3:07 PM GMT
Wd 13/2 looks big now
Report one last chance November 29, 2015 6:01 PM GMT
Well done callit nice return for the ew double
Report Ozymandius November 29, 2015 7:47 PM GMT
No sign of the tool that is The Gobshee.
Report pa lapsy November 29, 2015 8:15 PM GMT
Clever bet,very nearly the jackpot but given Scott was t34th with 2 rds to go fair enough, the thought process of making the place part odds on was kinda justified imo despite the screaming logic that the bet was good odds against( a little over 2/1 returned all in,5,s+ place part pending on odds got).
Good stuff.
Two cracking tournaments next week.
Report callitasucit November 30, 2015 5:05 PM GMT
The 25-1 on Andy Sullivan for the Nedbank is an absolute insult, and should be snaffled up.

The market consistently hates the affable Englishman.
Report kavvie November 30, 2015 8:09 PM GMT
great call callit.the fact that one lad won by 4 and other lad lost by one(jones pitched in from a bunker when def gonna db the hole if it went past,also holing for par on last from 5 ft).it was desperate hard luck.scotts 73 rd2 ultimately prevented the jackpot..your on fire at moment!!
Report frank60 November 30, 2015 8:54 PM GMT
The market must have heared you Callit  Andy Sullivan down to 22/1, i backed him last week ,[just pip at the post]  My few Shekels will be on Andy goodluck
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