Faugheen

Why didn't Nicholas Canyon run in the Supreme last year? Douvan is the answer, he subsequently won over 2 miles 4f at Aintree and Punchestown but a fast run supreme would have been ideal for him. I am not saying he would have definitely beaten Douvan but Wylie's interests are certainly weighted below Riccis at the festival.

He has plenty of pace and his jumping is electric.

Another example of Graham Wylie getting the short stick in comparison to Rich Ricci at Cheltenham.

Wylie must be a walkover as always allows what suits Willie and the hungry Walsh's plans.

Felix Yonger running in the Jewson was another example as he's optimum trip is undoubtedly 2 miles but CF got the nod.

Walsh also got his way when persuading Wylie to run Tidal Bay in the stayers hurdle rather than Gold Cup before he was injured.

You would have made a fortune yesterday if sticking to your mantra of WPM's runners not being at fever pitch. Unlike Mullins's punters to have it so wrong with Outlander(some of it a natural reaction to the support for Elliots)  winning despite a drift and the Giggy bumper horse being well supported but tailed off.

The jockey arrangements at Closutton will be interesting when there are multiple meetings with both nephews riding well, very noticeable that Ruby has vastly reduced his outside rides but still maintains the relationship with Harvey.

I think Faugheen can look awkward at times and thought he ran a fine race.Hopefully they don't come out with an injury story because obsessions with unbeaten NH records are pure vanity.

You could add to that sending a 162 rated chaser that was second in a Gold Cup over banks for Patrick to ride.

On His Own ran no race in the Risk of Thunder Chase but I hate seeing these horses run in these races.

I objected to Ten Up going hunter chasing all those years ago.

Wylie has been remarkably successful with Willie Mullins so presumably he doesn't want to upset the apple tart ( sorry Bertie )

Its a feature of racing that successful businessmen turn into blithering idiots when they set foot on a racecourse.
They are strung along by agents,by trainers but where they really lose their minds is when they clash with illiterate gentlemen standing on orange boxes.

Wildman there’s nothing wrong with Faugheen. He was most likely just shy a bit of work. According to Willie he ragged Nichols Canyon during the week at the Curragh and it’s in light of this that has caused Willie such a shock. Faugheen looked a grosser horse in the ring today than he ever has before. He’ll improve hugely in his next few races as the season progresses.

He is now 15/8 with PP for the CH. I suggest that any Christmas gifts you make this year take the form of a docket with Faugheen for the CH on it. You will be a most popular man come next March.

Wouldn't be rushing in for any of that 15/8 tbh ttk

I hope your right.
I wasn't there so accept your word he was carrying some condition.

I don't want to labour the point but he gave me the impression he was in pain,I also accept its somewhat tenuous when I only watched it on television.

Snap I don’t recall ever having an ante post bet. Faugheen is going to be my first.

He’s going to turn up in March and boss the race again. Nichols Canyon needs to strike on to be seen at his best, got messed around in the novice race there last year which compromised him. I’d be shocked if Willie allows Nichols to tackle Faugheen up front again. Peace & Co. & Arctic Fire need to be held up and there’s nothing else that looks like getting involved.

He’s going to meet nothing in Kempton, win impressively and be cut to 5/4 best.

Was there today and thought he looked big enough. Hate to hear that he worked all over Nichols Canton during the week as he probably left his race behind on the gallops. Would have little doubt that with a run he is an odds on chance come March.

A 15/8 shot ante-post...... I would rather take 10/11 with a run........ If he makes it on the day could well be 4/6

The reason that Nichol’s Canyon remained under the radar all year last season was that he works average at home. Allez Colombiere and Alvisio Ville were the two talking horses in the Closutton novice division. Same thing today. Willie was dumbfounded after watching the work during the week. In the cold light of day I’m sure he will realise it was a perfectly acceptable run from Faugheen.

The benefit of being an outsider is that you aren’t blinded by what horses do at home. These gallops can be very misleading and races are won on the track.

As he stands Easy I make him no bigger than 11/8 ante post with all things being considered. As I said, i don’t back ante post because the prices rarely compensate for the risk. This is the first time I reckon the price to contain sufficient juice to warrant a hefty investment. In effect, I won’t admonish myself for having an ante post bet @ 15/8 even if it all goes Pete Tong.

No matter how big he was today, if that was the same Faugheen from last season he would have won and won hard held today.

He is a fragile sort and I certainly wouldn't be contemplating backing him for any race until we know more after todays run

There will be far better 15/8 shots between now and March

There's will be plenty of backable 15/8 shots in the next five months snap. I reserve my largest bets for the elite horses though and there won't be too many lining up that I'd be looking to have four figures on. It's a rare occasion where I see a horse materially mispriced in top level races. This is one such occasion in my view. Punters have very short memories (e.g. Kauto Star's unseat in the Betfair Chase) and I believe this is a case of recency bias at play.

Can remember Kauto being an astonishing price the week of the 08' Downroyal Grade 1 as well, think it was the French-Bred thing (he's finished), which you don't really hear as much of now. Went off 2/5 in the end but saw 8/11 early that week.

15/8 is massive if you don't mind tying up part of your max-stake fund. He'll probably be coming into it off an Irish Champion Hurdle win as well against very little having not had to travel as I think he will go to Leopardstown at Christmas. (Could see Nicholls going to the Bula to anwser the 2m around Chelts query & Arctic being beautifully suited by the speed-test of the Christmas Hurdle). That campaigning makes most sense to me anwsering the most for Walsh who will probably make a play to run Nicholls in the stayers!

Could also see Bookmakers being more circumspect on the first day this year. The four bankers should have won last time and they'll acknowledge Mullins is a game-changer. He's nearly winning Melbourne Cups as after-thoughts.

Depending on your bank balance and your bets per point...... So your 1pts-5pts and your £100 per point... u make him a max bet....£500 win @ 15/8 and u lose if it doesn`t line....... No Brainer..... So what..... let it go
There will be lots of horses running soon enough that will be better value.....

To be honest I think there's probably a bit of relief that he's lost his unbeaten record, the monkey is off the back now, no NH Horse will ever remain unbeaten at the highest level over a couple of seasons, it's impossible, no matter how good you are, there's no more fear of him been beat now to keep his winning record unblemished, which takes a lot of the pressure off trainer and jockey! You'd think he was beaten by a donkey the way people have reacted, for any other horse at the elite level that would have been a perfectly respectable seasonal debut but because Faugheen was unbeaten it suddenly becomes a massive shock,
He'll p!ss up wherever he runs next and will be no bigger than even money to retain his title.

I agree.

I would say the first reaction from Ricci on Sunday was "Thank fcuk for that".

I wouldn't be mad keen to wade into the 15-8 myself.

I have dabbled in the ante post markets for Chelt over the past few years, and the key is obviously to try and spot horses who have big scope to shorten dramatically in the market.

I have always been a massive Faugheen fan, and think he will retain his crown. But I don't see many sets of circumstances unfolding that will result in me not being able to back him at 6-4 on the day.

To be backing one at 15-8 4 months in advance, one would obviously want a decent wedge on to make it worthwhile. The flip side of that is you are tying up a big wedge(what proportion of your betting bank?) for quite some time.....money which you may have made for use out of in that time.

My Tent can reappear and the way Bobs, Simonsig and SS have come back, he may once again have watchers drooling.

Peace and Co will probably have a couple of easy assignments to get going, and Nichols and Faugheen look set to be kept apart, so Nichols may well get to Chelt unbeaten this year too.

Faugheen wont get the chance to beat much between now and then, so the question marks will still remain.

I don't really rate Arctic Fire at all, and think this years CH is shaping up to be a much better affair than last.

There is also the possibility that Faugheen has some physical problem.

All in all, I don't see much positive in taking a price now, that has far more scope to be bigger or very close to on the day, than there is of it being appreciably shorter enough to warrant ploughing in now.

No right or wrong to TTKs bet, and I hope he wins, but as a short priced ante post fav, I would have much preferred the 3s on Vautour for the KG. Even after DC and CG reappearances, I think the scope is there for Vautour to start very close to evens on the day.

Roll on Ascot on Saturday!!

I suppose it depends on how you look at shortening prices Callit. I foresee Faugheen sluicing up in Kempton and not being seen again with 5/4 being the tops available. For a Grade One horse that would be a very appealing price differential, enough to warrant an ante post bet.

I've gone through the others and don't see any threats outside of Closutton (though obviously the point is projected price movements rather than what will actually happen in the CH).

My Tent hasn't a hope at this stage of his life - wouldn't fancy him even if he was at his best. He is also likely to be put in his place by Faugheen in Kempton.

I like Peace & Co myself but he does a lot wrong for a prospective CH horse. Nicky could well take the soft route of International Hurdle / Haydock Trial which won't do the horse any good either.

Nichols Canyon may well be his biggest danger and I don't believe he would be ridden to best advantage in the CH if Faugheen lines up looking at the preferential treatment Ricci's horses get.

In short, I think Faugheen will win the CH and, more to the point, I think he will be 5/4 best as we enter the New Year. I accept your point on how the layers chase the fav's especially on the opening day and that's the only reason I haven't taken the 15/8 to date. Will make my final deliberations in the next few days.

ive seen the advantages and disadvantages of ante post over the years myself.and ive come to the conclusion that your better off wait.i got a few results at big prices (kicking king sublimity binocular)but theres a lot of money gone south also.will he go to kempton at all?he might stay at home over christmas?as callit says what will shorten him?  most likely he will win 2 races at 1/3 to 1/5 sp in both.and in the last few years there has been fierce price competition between bookies on the days before chelt and the actual race day.id rather back at 6/4 on the day than 15/8 now( i asked my friendly bookie for 2/1 with a run,hes considering!!).the best time to back and get juicy prices is  in handicaps when your getting with a run and the horses target is uncertain..about a week before..

We heard the same arguments re his sp last year and even though he had no run after Christmas he still went off at 4/5. If he doesnt have an injury I could see the same happening again in March. Some of the knockers are out again and they are repeating all the same things as last year - hes beaten nothing, its going to be a better race this year etc etc etc. If all is well with the horse 15/8 is a steal.

The IF is the sticking point Arklearkle.  We can hypothesise allday on this but anyone with a full ticket would rather take 4/5 on the day knowing he is fit & well than 15/8 knowing sweet fa apart from he's just been beaten for the first time on the back of some incredibly bullish reports from trainer & jockey pre-race.
Rather have money to play with now on far better betting propositions than x amount of points tied up for 5 months for a 1.08 gain which could be further shortened by shopping around on the day.

hi gutfeeling,
were you been mate..?

Dont disagree with you gut IF is always a big word. To me Faugheen ran way below his best. On a different tack what would we have made of NC if Faugheen had not been in the race - he would have beaten Wicklow Brave by less than 2 lengths.

That the thing Arkle, I would prefer to wait and find out that all is well before backing. I don't think he drifted enough really to take into account the fact there could be something amiss.

He could obviously go off odds on this year, if everything else falls by the wayside. That's ante post punting.....you pays your money..

But the scope to shorten much is not really there, and given the risks and potential of rivals involved, I don't believe the 15-8 to be a steal....as things stand. If he lines up with those doubts behind him, and murders everything put in front of him beforehand then it will look good.

Faugheen will bolt up in CH if he makes it there.  Thought he got a brutal ride at the weekend and all this drivel about hanging is just that.  Smokescreen to take away from what was a shocking ride.

a shocking ride?thats the first time i heard that angle..!!  explain

He let Nicholls Canyon get first run on him.  Then talking rubbish about the horse hanging afterwards...... complete rubbish

if faugheen was good enough on the day he would have won.end of.no fault of the jockey.

Kavvie sent you a pm.

I feel like wonks now sending pm's.  Where is he?

welcome back wr..!!

Go on the wonks!!!!!

On that ride BWS , I'd take issue with you , if Willie is to be believed re his last piece of homework were according to him Faugheen ran all over Nick,then it was the right call by Ruby to stalk him till nearing the home turn , but if you look back at the replay you'll see Ruby niggling away just before they turned in,I'd say the winner found a lot more than they thought he would,Ruby gave his lad a right few belts and I mean belts nearing the last.I also felt he hung slightly nearing the last.

Anyone else think they might have been letting Wylie have one?

Not a chance

Most likely if Faugheen  hadn't hung he would have won and there would be no talk about a poor ride and so on, If the champion hurdle was being run in a couple of weeks punters would be running to the shops to take 15/8, plenty of Champion hurdle winners lost 1st time out, Welcome back W/R "Rumors Of your Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated"

imho he won a weak renewal of last years CH. The New One began dogging it. The 2nd looks an absolute twicer at the top level and the 3rd was an 11yo who was gone at that level.

Only madmen would back this at the current price

wat will bt it?  all its other pieces of form are top drawer also..

does anyone remember ricci talking on atr..?he said faugheen had a minor back problem?

If someone can't see a horse is hanging they really shouldn't bother commenting.

Might tie in with what I mentioned Tony as he looked to have something amiss, Hope you're well mate.
Sorry didn't reply the other day but I rarely venture onto this part of the forum anymore.

hi mate,
        its ok, you know more than me working with them.

Just how he landed 2 out he looked to really jar himself, Go look his head is vertical on landing.
If RR said he had a problem before the race that might have given him some pain hence the not finding as much as usual ?

Be interesting to see his next start and how they ride him as a lot been made of not going in front, Sure he's won 5 from being held up, 5 from the front prior to the Morgiana.

A few good points here, a horse im looking forward to see running is Top Notch [1st run of the season tomorrow Haydock 1.50] he could be a big Challenger to Faugheen come Cheltenham time.

I wonder whether Faugheen winning a champion last year was a bonus and he now needs a fence and a longer trip. He was bred to be a chaser and won a 3 mile novice @ Limerick on heavy ground. He won a weak renewal last year from the front with a very slow time(Douvan ran a much faster time in the supreme).

He was beaten by a very speedy flat bred in nichols canyon will have another one to worry about in last years triumph winner. Artic Fire would also be much better off a fast pace if got one. I still think Faugheen is a very classy animal and could reverse form at cheltenham but it may be that a longer trip will see him at his best in the future.

ya agree newapproach a class horse, but would have to think if vautour wasnt in the stable this fella would be chasing

good logical stuff new approach.i was there the day he won that 3 mile novice in limerick on barely raceable ground.if you were told that day he was a future champion hurdler you would be ringing for the men in white coats....so maybe just maybe your right..

Ya could flip that though Wasp though, and say if Faugheen wasn't in the stable Vautour would be still hurdling.

It was a very very poor CH last year, Arctic Fire wont be mapped this year if all that could show up do show up. But I take issue with NA about the fast pace angle. AF may be better off faster fractions, but Faugheen as the stayer certainly wouldn't be favoured by a sprint.

I have absolutely no doubt Faugheen wasn't himself at Punch, for whatever reason. Its that unknown reason which makes me say he's not a bet at 15-8 currently.

I doubt he was injured, if he was we would already have an excuse by now. Mullins and Ruby were bewildered. Faugheen was suited by the slow pace when he was dictating from the front. Would you worry about his jumping if they went a very fast pace, he is hardly slick over them? It was mentioned already here the ricci/ wylie factor here already and that is a massive unknown. Ruby has a lot of say and whether they let nc have a lead in the champion will be interesting.

I don't think he looked like a champion hurdler the last day. He was too slow too pick up. I haven't seen him in the flesh but he looks massive compared to all his rivals in that race and at cheltenham last year. There is no doubt he is a freak and a classy horse but I think they won their champion with him last year and he is unlikely to be suited by it this year and would be seen in a better light over fences.

Last years triumph winner will be a massive rival this year too. Top notch ran very well saturday on first run back against irving and will be suited by a step up in trip. I'd say he is a fair bit better than top notch and he is going to be a lot shorter price on the day than he is now.

You could be right about Top notch needing a longer trip N.A. but i loved the way he battled back in the  TRIUMPH HURDLE just loseing out to Peace and Co last March, I took 80/1 on him here a few weeks ago to win the Champion Hurdle, i just hope Henderson doesn,t have other plans for him.Time will tell.

I see Willie Mullins has added Wicklow Brave at at cost of 4,500 to run in the  Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle on Sat, W.B ran a nice race behind Nichols Canyon and Faugheen .

NA, Faugheen is by far the best 2M hurdler around.  Dont think anything will get near him come March.  Certainly none of the 4 year olds from last year look like challenging him.  Biggest danger looks like his stablemates and i trust Willie when he says this horse is far better than any of those.

Some of you on here are contradicting yourselves by saying that Faugheen won the CH because of the slow pace and are also saying he needs much further. Which is it - make up your minds.

Would imagine he would be grand off a slow pace as long as he is the horse dictating it.  Dont think it would matter what way the race is run as long as he is prominent.

Would agree with bigwilly. WPM has the race by the balls. If Peace & Co, Top Notch or Hargam can win a champion hurdle I will give up punting forever. This years C H was top class, as was 2014... i would say 2 of the best of modern times. I do think though that Arctic Fire and Nicholls are absolute top drawer and wouldn't be surprised if either turn over Faugheen.Lots of respect for My Tent too and cant see past these 4 unless Willie pulls another joker out of the pack. Arctic Fire ew looks rock solid to me.

Faugheen is a very classy horse no doubt I just feel he is facing much stronger opposition this year and he may have slowed down a touch with age. It is only a suspicion at the moment until we have more evidence but at the price, it is a doubt in my mind. He didn't pick up like you would want him to at punchestown, it took him a while to get going and he stayed on then.

He dictated off what appeared a very slow gallop last year and used his considerable class and strong stamina which he showed at Limerick to power up the hill impressively. He may well do the same this year but will have to do it against younger, better rivals which will take some doing. He is well capable of winning grade 1's over 2 miles including the christmas hurdle this year which looks like it could be weak but whether this is what shows him at his best is open to question.

Nicky said Top notch will run in the fighting fifth if it is very soft and plans to step up in trip after frank. Don't know what their plan for cheltenham is as a world hurdle would be a tough race for a five year old but he looks a very tough horse.

I hope they are thinking about going up in trip because they think Peace and co is much better. I have backed him @ 9/1 and hope he will be lot shorter come March

Last years champion hurdle was a dreadful renewal, the proximity of Arctic Fire at the line is proof of such.
The New One is a cripple, Jezki was a 3 miler in disguise, and even a hubby horse like Kitten Rock wasnt beat too far, a veteran even got a place in the race.
Faugheen is very vulnerable to something coming through, but its hard to pick out one at this stage.

Jezki was a 3 miler in disguise?, I seem to remember  Jezki won the Champion hurdle last  year[2014] Mincer, he only finished 4th this year which would make the  Champion hurdle a much better race this year.[2015] hardly  a dreadful renewal

The anti Faugheen group spent five months telling us that the 2015 renewal would be one of the best ever and when Faugheen put all these wonderful hurdlers in their place they said it was a poor race. Another 100 yards last Sunday he would have beaten Nichols and I think we all know which was the fitter horse.

Such a pity that the owners of Blue Dragon will certainly not entertain any offers for the horse and more than likely will not even consider bringing him over for the Champion Hurdle. He seems to be an incredible galloping machine and is likely to be the highest rated 4 year old in France in a very long time. He would have to adapt to different hurdles etc, but it would be extremely hard to see any of these horses including Faugheen beating him if he was to replicate the level of performance from yesterday in the UK.

surely rich or jp would be able to tempt them to part?

He looked very special all right D.V...CANT SAY I blame them theres nice pickings to be had in france;no real dangers to take him on over there.7runs 7wins  over 300k in winnings.

I'm not anti faugheen, I'm a massive fan but I think he mightn't have the speed to beat stronger rivals than last year.

Mincer exaggerates the point but there is a lot of truth in his analysis of last years race although I don't agree with his view of Artic Fire.

DV would you have any link to Blue Dragon’s most recent win? I’ve seen Bonito Du Berlais win a few times and he’s very good. Blue Dragon must be a jet plane to have ragged BDB like he did.

Not a chance I would say as the owner never sells her best stock.

Whether JP would part with the money needed if there was the slightest chance that he was for sale is debatable, but Ricci would not be parting with that level of cash.

looking at the money its won so far i suppose coming to england for 150k is a bit silly when you look at whats on offer in france in possibly easier races..if i ever get involved in a horse again i think france is the place to race it.

Never though Faugheen wanted for pace. Always thought the reason he was ridden prominent was to give him a sight of his hurdles and let him find a rhythem at them. He did them for foot last year to be certain. The real elite NH horses are versatile.

Faugheen the machine is right

Saw it written as FAUGHMACHEEN somewhere, anyways still happy with my NICHOLS CANYON bets

Keen Leader put up Faugheen on the irish forum as one to watch out for even before he had his 1st race,if my Memory Serves he beat Josses hill by 20l, ..problem is Faugheen has been money on in every race since with the Exception of the Neptune [chel 14],  I love to see him and  Blue Dragon in the same race but i fear it will never happen.

Faugheen is a complete freak, his anyone can say blue dragon would beat him is absolutely astonishing,
A point to point winner who also won over 3 miles on heavy ground and is now seen blitzing his rivals over 2 miles on an array of different ground,
Blue dragon wouldn't stand a chance.

* how

for all arctic fire might be still suffering from his Christmas exertions at 3 miles and Nicholls was this time probably finally feeling the effects of a hard race, Faugheen must be up there now with the likes of Kauto and Istabraq.

Would love to see them try and do a Dawn Run with him. Will probably be backing Identity Thief for the place at Cheltenham, should find he ground amenable providing they don't water the sh1t out of it and he should be improving every day of the week.

Douvan is probably a Gold Cup horse.

Up there with Istabraq and Kauto?!

Maybe in a couple of years when he's won a few more champion hurdles.

Until then he remains a very good horse in a truly awful 2m division.

Ye can't say ye weren't told.

Since he was beaten in his seasonal reappearance when he looked huge he has gone on to win the Christmas Hurdle as he likes stuffing The New One and then won the Irish Champion Hurdle almost the length of the straight destroying Artic Fire and Nicholas Canyon. You say "ye can't say ye weren't told"? Are you claiming you where correct that he was hurting and they've only found it now as then it makes his last 2 performances absolutely incredible

Unreal, can you not be civil and stick to the topic? Yet you call me a hothead.

I only got posts removed that you where making up untrue things about me, that was all, let's leave it at that.

You didnt get the topic,you jumped in in your usual red faced way without thinking.

There was nothing made up,I only repeated what you already told me.
It was hardly my fault you forgot what you previously posted.

Will you stop for once, you made things up about me. You said it would take too long to bring them back up but could which you proved is rubbish seen as you brought about 25 thread back up in 10 minutes last week, the reality is I never said anything that you where posting about me hence you cannot bring them threads back up.

Stop ruining threads, I get the topic, all you had to reply to me was that you where joking and I misinterpreted your post, that would have been an end of it, instead here we are going through this again.

When you said " lets leave it at that " I knew you were being economical with the truth.