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8.10 seventh sign
thought good enough for Cheltenham,the 2nd to the mullins horse @thurles is fine form.
8.40 Waterville rock
was not beaten far on debut @cork on soft,with any improvement must be there abouts, decent bet for me.
thought good enough for Cheltenham,the 2nd to the mullins horse @thurles is fine form.
8.40 Waterville rock
was not beaten far on debut @cork on soft,with any improvement must be there abouts, decent bet for me.
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May 11, 2015 -- 2:33PM, easygold wrote:
I have said too much..... I will leave it that....... Take care now.
Oh sweet Jeesus,am I in a time warp or what back to 2005?
All the shrewdies play with a 8-10 second time disadvantage,absolutely playing blind is correct.
He puts up a JP gamble yesterday from 14's to 9/2 when it's 9/2.
It's hard to legislate for stating the obvious to this degree.
Even the shop desperadoes would have this level of understanding and he pontificating like he's invented the wheel..
sshhhhh
Listen worm........ if u think I play 8-10 seconds behind .......... get a grip with yourself....... and if u think I backed W.Dar at 9/2...... get another grip........
I only ever knew one man who made a lot, and I mean a lot of money, on horses on here (before the PC).
For what its worth, he was an advocate of putting up a lay at around 1.2 of most horses that he backed.
For what its worth, he was an advocate of putting up a lay at around 1.2 of most horses that he backed.
I know you don't have an iota,everything you post verifies that opinion.
You believe watching the replays and attempting to decipher a pace angle gives you an edge,you're nearly as far behind as the pictures you're betting on.
You most certainly are playing with a massive time disadvantage IR on Irish racing.
Failed punter ...turned failed tipping agent......seeking some journalistic work.
You believe watching the replays and attempting to decipher a pace angle gives you an edge,you're nearly as far behind as the pictures you're betting on.
You most certainly are playing with a massive time disadvantage IR on Irish racing.
Failed punter ...turned failed tipping agent......seeking some journalistic work.
May 11, 2015 -- 5:53PM, Ozymandius wrote:
I only ever knew one man who made a lot, and I mean a lot of money, on horses on here (before the PC).For what its worth, he was an advocate of putting up a lay at around 1.2 of most horses that he backed.
The whole basis of this analysis is based on taking odds less than their actual probability.
Over an extended sample size guaranteed to be loss making in absolute terms (ignoring psychological impact etc)
It's hardly difficult to work out that you will only be matched when you're giving some one else value.
It's hardly difficult to work out that you will only be matched when you're giving some one else (with a ten second time advantage) value over an extended sample size.
Give it a rest....... u having a clue what`s available out there......... 8secs.......... and other thing the guys who are at the track with lap tops???? do you think all them have the same ability as everyone else.......... Listen to urself............
So when Fort Smith, The Herd`s Garden reached 1.2,1.15.1.1 1.07,1.03 in the past they had the advantage.......... and then suddenly they get beaten......... Who do u think backed them first???????
So when Fort Smith, The Herd`s Garden reached 1.2,1.15.1.1 1.07,1.03 in the past they had the advantage.......... and then suddenly they get beaten......... Who do u think backed them first???????
It's so simplistic it's painful to have to explain at this stae.
I doubt you have SIS and even if you do there is a very significant disadvantage to live pictures,shows what you know when you think they're using laptops.
Can anyone not understand a sample size?
There isn't a chance in hell you will beat IR punters with a significant time advantage in the long run.
Out of 100 lays you will not get paid out on 22 (which you need to cover yourself) 1.2 shots playing with slow pics.
You're over-estimating the gains when an IR lay clicks and under-estimating the consistent erosion in your winnings when they're picking your money of the floor.
I doubt you have SIS and even if you do there is a very significant disadvantage to live pictures,shows what you know when you think they're using laptops.
Can anyone not understand a sample size?
There isn't a chance in hell you will beat IR punters with a significant time advantage in the long run.
Out of 100 lays you will not get paid out on 22 (which you need to cover yourself) 1.2 shots playing with slow pics.
You're over-estimating the gains when an IR lay clicks and under-estimating the consistent erosion in your winnings when they're picking your money of the floor.
Shaneshill in Punchestown was a prime example of an in running lay.
The only doubt about him was him staying ( I thought he would ) but you could be fairly confident he would trade shorter during the race.
Horses you might consider non stayers or dodge pots could also be put up as keep bets,Tandem also in Punchestown another example.
Its not my type of bet but I get the logic of it.
The only doubt about him was him staying ( I thought he would ) but you could be fairly confident he would trade shorter during the race.
Horses you might consider non stayers or dodge pots could also be put up as keep bets,Tandem also in Punchestown another example.
Its not my type of bet but I get the logic of it.
Who the hell is talking about trying to beat them............... I`m talking about a certain horse to reach a certain price. so what if it`s not matched at the price I want........ I move on to the next horse that I KNOW finds little off the bridle that others think he has the race won and suddenly comes off the bridle......
People watch the rider, but having a clue about the horse,having a clue......
People watch the rider, but having a clue about the horse,having a clue......
Wildman,
Yes if you're on a level playing field,either you make the effort to be so or that option is taken away.
Easygob.
You must think no one watches racing apart from yourself,if you're happy to throw in blind lays. Then best of luck to you but very simplistic and foolish. I have wasted enough time explaining a very simple loss leader but it doesn't see, to drop with you
Yes if you're on a level playing field,either you make the effort to be so or that option is taken away.
Easygob.
You must think no one watches racing apart from yourself,if you're happy to throw in blind lays. Then best of luck to you but very simplistic and foolish. I have wasted enough time explaining a very simple loss leader but it doesn't see, to drop with you
Am only telling you what he did (in many cases)...rightly or wrongly. He seemed happy to take his money off the table at a certain low point......meant he avoided most hard luck stories...of which one sense there are many more that the market dictates.
I don't think you can assume the market is always accurately assessing the probability of outcome in running. Perhaps he was happy to occasionally overpay for insurance.
I don't think you can assume the market is always accurately assessing the probability of outcome in running. Perhaps he was happy to occasionally overpay for insurance.
^^^
The market doesn't have to be accurate in every instance but over a significant sample size the lad watching a furlong ahead will beat you.
The market doesn't have to be accurate in every instance but over a significant sample size the lad watching a furlong ahead will beat you.
So live video is 8-10 seconds behind real time,i've heard it all now,surely anyone isn't stupid enough to be backing on atr pictures.
Well done TTK & Big Willy!
No better man than Charles to get the job done.
No better man than Charles to get the job done.
You bet IR on BF LV PA ? Great reception and reliability and still a furlong behind
Best of luck to you is all I can say.
WD Bigwilly and TTK,found plenty.
Great reception and reliability and still a furlong behindBest of luck to you is all I can say.
WD Bigwilly and TTK,found plenty.
Welldone TTK, jumped poor as you thought he mite and still won, can`t wait to see what he reaches when he can jump.
A furlong behind....... just guess a figure...... my god....
Speaking absolute sense Pa but it's lost on this place.
Hope your luck changes soon
Hope your luck changes soon
I have to admit I was a non believer,the stable form worried me.
Fair play to TellTheKing and Bigwilliestyle although I don't get how they made him a stone well in,I thought he went up another 8 pound for losing in Clonmel.
That is not a criticism its more looking back in admiration.
Fair play to TellTheKing and Bigwilliestyle although I don't get how they made him a stone well in,I thought he went up another 8 pound for losing in Clonmel.
That is not a criticism its more looking back in admiration.
Pa go racing some day and stand by the tv screens. Then you’ll see the difference between live, SIS and ATR.
Horse done it well and has massive engine. If he stays together he will be contesting those good handicap chases (assuming Charles don’t break him in between)
Horse done it well and has massive engine. If he stays together he will be contesting those good handicap chases (assuming Charles don’t break him in between)
Wildman Leave At Dawn was a 32k store and a smashing horse. He was only a shell (still probably is) and it takes a fair horse to win handicaps as a 4yo.
He bolted up in the style of a right horse in Thurles and Clonmel was a disaster. Ran too soon and buckled at the first. No chance after. Natural progression gave him plenty go scope off 108. He was eye-catching in a better race the last day too. That’s all before you take the CB factor into account.
He bolted up in the style of a right horse in Thurles and Clonmel was a disaster. Ran too soon and buckled at the first. No chance after. Natural progression gave him plenty go scope off 108. He was eye-catching in a better race the last day too. That’s all before you take the CB factor into account.
I was in Thurles when he landed that gamble,I had a good look at him didnt strike me as an obvious chaser.
What makes ye think he will be winning good handicap chases ?
What makes ye think he will be winning good handicap chases ?
Very true Ozy. Had a desperate Punchestown. You know what they say about class though!
I see you have answered my question,you have my genuine admiration.
Hope you got plenty you deserve it.
Hope you got plenty you deserve it.
If Byrnes can win good handicaps with Maharajan and Third Level Tom he’ll win them with anything.
That why I held off on hounding you.
Scouse Tony would have got it in the jugular on a similar run!
Scouse Tony would have got it in the jugular on a similar run!
Ah now it wasn’t as bad as Tony’s runs! Still put up Wicklow brave @ 5/2 (not that those prices are anything to blow too much about).
Warne will be suited by the drop back in trip. He finished worryingly tamely in punchestown after travelling well but @ 5/2 he’s fairly priced.
Warne will be suited by the drop back in trip. He finished worryingly tamely in punchestown after travelling well but @ 5/2 he’s fairly priced.
still waiting for these well informed posters to take up my challenge of a tipping competition, one claims he has class and the other one is a professor
3/1 NOW TTK, not the horse he was but as you say trip will suit, im on
suppose all those IR players with the fast pictures got that one badly wrong DJGUESSER
the McGuire kid made some rick there..had it in the bag and went for a big one? got a decent price last night,ffs..think the horse is in a bad way?
They would have laid the faller RR.
I have being very impressed with your lists lately RR but I am not sure if you will be as good as calling it before the race.
So I will make a deal with you if you put up two selections each day for a week (before the races) using a staking system of 1-3 points and can show a ROI of 50% for the week (you ridiculed me for 80%) then I will give you another free lesson at Royal Ascot?
I have being very impressed with your lists lately RR but I am not sure if you will be as good as calling it before the race.
So I will make a deal with you if you put up two selections each day for a week (before the races) using a staking system of 1-3 points and can show a ROI of 50% for the week (you ridiculed me for 80%) then I will give you another free lesson at Royal Ascot?
3 winning notebooks winning consecutive races on guineas day and the guineas winner to boot, and all having their first run of the season, whats the chances of that happening again
I await your thread with the opening selections RR ,Best of luck and hope you put the doubters back in their box.
Rotten luck Tony,a bit exuberant perhaps.
Rotten luck Tony,a bit exuberant perhaps.
Replay needs to be watched but Katie seemed to find plenty of trouble for you there Tony.
Nothing wrong with the picks but the cards did not fall your way.
Nothing wrong with the picks but the cards did not fall your way.
Well done lads, couldn't have been more confident about him and at very backable prices right through the day. think everyone was relieved when it started to contract more in the evening, though.
Think I remember Carlingford Lough winning a handicap hurdle at Galway off 109.
Think I remember Carlingford Lough winning a handicap hurdle at Galway off 109.
Thought Katies horse got itself into trouble.
Seventh Sign put down unfortunately. Don’t like kicking young fellas but Finny made a right hash of it coming down to the last. Had his mind made up to go long a mile out.
Seventh Sign put down unfortunately. Don’t like kicking young fellas but Finny made a right hash of it coming down to the last. Had his mind made up to go long a mile out.
Interesting thread.
Can see the validity to both dj's and Easy's points of view.
Dj is correct when someone who is actually 'live' is taking your 1.2, they are in the position to be of the firm opinion that it is indeed a good price. Therefore when the 1.2 was taken, the person who had it in was getting poor value in reality.
But these boys at the track are a bit too fast on the trigger on occasion. Every day there will be yokes done at very short prices, and you watch the race again and think, 'When the fu ck did they think that was 1.17??
So it can balance itself out, and certain horses, like The Herds Garden can be profitable. Everyone obviously knows now he is a dodgepot, so as dj says that will be more than factored into the in running price(and he probably wont trade short enough at various stages when he does relent to win one).
Giles Cross won me quite a tidy sum in a Welsh National a few years back. I had backed him pre race, with a couple of low trades stuck in to put me in a position of winning more on him trading low and getting beat, than actually winning. Granted at the time each of my lays were taken, those backing him would have been happy with their bets. I though was full sure he would not get home.
Its the same as every other facet of gambling. You need to be laying these types before everyone else cottons on to their foibles.
Personally I rarely stick in a lay, other than the odd beast like THG or GC. I stopped laying off at short odds in the golf, because as dj says, I was sick of them 'picking my money off the floor'. (True enough, I haven't had one hit short odds in awhile!!)
I was of the opinion that my bets were only getting matched at a time under different circumstances, I would actually want to back them at that price. As TTK its just a loss of faith in your bet. Or lack of balls.
WD on the winner. Didn't see much racing. Caught the Ted Veale race. Ruby seemed a bit sleepy alright.
Can see the validity to both dj's and Easy's points of view.
Dj is correct when someone who is actually 'live' is taking your 1.2, they are in the position to be of the firm opinion that it is indeed a good price. Therefore when the 1.2 was taken, the person who had it in was getting poor value in reality.
But these boys at the track are a bit too fast on the trigger on occasion. Every day there will be yokes done at very short prices, and you watch the race again and think, 'When the fu ck did they think that was 1.17??
So it can balance itself out, and certain horses, like The Herds Garden can be profitable. Everyone obviously knows now he is a dodgepot, so as dj says that will be more than factored into the in running price(and he probably wont trade short enough at various stages when he does relent to win one).
Giles Cross won me quite a tidy sum in a Welsh National a few years back. I had backed him pre race, with a couple of low trades stuck in to put me in a position of winning more on him trading low and getting beat, than actually winning. Granted at the time each of my lays were taken, those backing him would have been happy with their bets. I though was full sure he would not get home.
Its the same as every other facet of gambling. You need to be laying these types before everyone else cottons on to their foibles.
Personally I rarely stick in a lay, other than the odd beast like THG or GC. I stopped laying off at short odds in the golf, because as dj says, I was sick of them 'picking my money off the floor'. (True enough, I haven't had one hit short odds in awhile!!)
I was of the opinion that my bets were only getting matched at a time under different circumstances, I would actually want to back them at that price. As TTK its just a loss of faith in your bet. Or lack of balls.
WD on the winner. Didn't see much racing. Caught the Ted Veale race. Ruby seemed a bit sleepy alright.
On young Maguire. It would be no harm if they reined in the winning rides he is getting at the moment. He will be a star, but many a young pilot has had their career ruined by losing their claim too early.
His defeat to Jamie Codd at Punch showed just how weak he is compared to the established jocks, and is reminiscent of Leigh Roche a few years ago. DKW recognised this, and gave LR fu ck all rides for a couple of years. He hadn't lost faith in him, he was just protecting him. He also didn't let anyone else use him on a yoke with a chance of winning!!
Finny could do with a similar approach I think. Let him perfect his riding a bit more, strengthen up. Give him plenty of rides by all means, but not the hot pots he is appearing on of late. It is hard for both trainer and pilot to do this, but he will surely benefit from it long term.
His defeat to Jamie Codd at Punch showed just how weak he is compared to the established jocks, and is reminiscent of Leigh Roche a few years ago. DKW recognised this, and gave LR fu ck all rides for a couple of years. He hadn't lost faith in him, he was just protecting him. He also didn't let anyone else use him on a yoke with a chance of winning!!
Finny could do with a similar approach I think. Let him perfect his riding a bit more, strengthen up. Give him plenty of rides by all means, but not the hot pots he is appearing on of late. It is hard for both trainer and pilot to do this, but he will surely benefit from it long term.
Calit... people don`t read threads proper........ you know and I certainly know there is a lot of horses out there that will reach low in-running, the problem with these people is that they havn`t got the time to sit down and re-watch ALL races and make a profile about them. The keep bets will be up there before anybody who is 10 secs ahead even decides anything.
You just need to know which ones are capable to go low in-running and fine nothing, it works easy when the cruising jockey`s are on board.
So just to make this clear, I don`t care who is 2 mins ahead my price will be up there first. The price that I`m happpy and think it will reach and so what if it doesn`t reach it. But if it does I will be first on not them.
You just need to know which ones are capable to go low in-running and fine nothing, it works easy when the cruising jockey`s are on board.
So just to make this clear, I don`t care who is 2 mins ahead my price will be up there first. The price that I`m happpy and think it will reach and so what if it doesn`t reach it. But if it does I will be first on not them.
I know all about you SCP........... a man that`s needs info from others.........
Dj's point though Easy, is that its the people accommodating these lays that are ahead of the market. When they are accommodating you, they are more often than not going to be correct at the time of the bet.
They have live evidence as such to support their wager, the pre race lay put in is a sitting duck in a way. Your lay will be matched first, as opposed to in running punters of similar mind, but Dj's point is correct.....when the bet is struck, it is more likely than not that the 1.2 matched is actually quite a bit shorter.
They have live evidence as such to support their wager, the pre race lay put in is a sitting duck in a way. Your lay will be matched first, as opposed to in running punters of similar mind, but Dj's point is correct.....when the bet is struck, it is more likely than not that the 1.2 matched is actually quite a bit shorter.
Easygob I've forgotten more than you will ever know, get into bed now ya eejit
Tnx callit, you get dat voicemail i left you earlier re horse tomorrow ?
I don`t care if the horse I want reaches lower.......... my bet is that it won`t win at the price i want. it`s not same conversation. Just a bloke that has a wicked bee in his bonnet.
I did Snap cheers. Only in from work awhile, so hadn't chance get back to you.
There definitely logic to both arguments. I'm not disagreeing with either. There are certainly horses who can be labelled early, as dodgepots/susoect stayers etc, and profited from.
DJ's point is of course correct mathematically, callit
But as you have pointed out yourself, there are plenty of times they get it wrong, plus there is the pressure of competition amongst the fast pic guys, so, over time, the insurance (which by nature, costs money) that you are taking out does not cost as much as it might if the market was more efficient.
But as you have pointed out yourself, there are plenty of times they get it wrong, plus there is the pressure of competition amongst the fast pic guys, so, over time, the insurance (which by nature, costs money) that you are taking out does not cost as much as it might if the market was more efficient.
I backed a yoke at Chester last wk, Brazos. Fin 3rd. It never looked a winner to me. Traded about 2.7. As u say, they very trigger happy.
A day earlier I backed Young John. Went off quite short in the end, but was done at 250 in running. Slow from the gates, hampered, and was dropped from tv view at halfway. But there was 4 yokes up front going hammer and thongs. Call me crazy, and hind sight is wonderful, but I never thought I was in huge trouble. I couldn't believe when heard after race what price he hit. They just wanted to lay it any price, and as you say competed against each other after the hampering, and forced it to a silly price.
Works both ways.
A day earlier I backed Young John. Went off quite short in the end, but was done at 250 in running. Slow from the gates, hampered, and was dropped from tv view at halfway. But there was 4 yokes up front going hammer and thongs. Call me crazy, and hind sight is wonderful, but I never thought I was in huge trouble. I couldn't believe when heard after race what price he hit. They just wanted to lay it any price, and as you say competed against each other after the hampering, and forced it to a silly price.
Works both ways.
Just on the point of young jocks and protecting claims, I note Maurice Linehan is still claiming 3lb over the way. Always thought he was pretty strong and would've been rid of the claim long ago. What has gone wrong there?
Jonjo prob wants to hold onto the claim for a bit longer. Use it up when he wants to, when its worth it.
Yeah must be, he's on the scene a good long while now, anyway.Looks to always have had the strength judged on a few of his rides on Tarvini years back. Patient lad, good on him.
Jonjo very adept at finding a good claimer at an early age.
I suppose what I am saying is that over time the cost of the lay will be greater than 1.2, that's accepted, but a lot less greater than if the market was pure and efficient.
This has been a decent thread,don't mean to wreck it but I can't agree with those complaining about Finnie Maguire.
He was right to ride into the last,the horse was responding to pressure throughout the race,made mistakes when left to his own devices.
What happened could have happened if he asked him to pop the last.
He was right to ride into the last,the horse was responding to pressure throughout the race,made mistakes when left to his own devices.
What happened could have happened if he asked him to pop the last.
A good thread and a nice break from the usual garbage. Heated debate but in a dignified manner on all sides.
I am afraid I cannot get my head around the in running though when you are playing against people at the track. If you are putting up designated lays (i.e. Keep in play @ 1.2) the guys at the track are getting the value. Surely they are the ones on the frontfoot overall regardless of how many times horses go short and get beat. I would have to think the efficiency of the market overrides human error (e.g over zealous in running backers). You are saying you are happy to lay X horse @ 1.2 in a given race but they can take that price during the race when the horses real price is shorter. Maybe I'm wrong though. Also, Easy mentioned a list of 80 horses earlier. I would have thought you'd need a list closer to 800 for it to be worthwhile.
On Finny, if he had decided five strides out to go long you'd understand it. However, he had it in his head from the back of the second last to go gung ho. It was an example of youthful exuberance getting the better of him. He'll be fine though, has the raw materials of a good rider. He's been kept away from p2p's so far (only handful of rides in them). I imagine he's father will take the leash of him for the autumn season and give the novice riders title a crack.
I am afraid I cannot get my head around the in running though when you are playing against people at the track. If you are putting up designated lays (i.e. Keep in play @ 1.2) the guys at the track are getting the value. Surely they are the ones on the frontfoot overall regardless of how many times horses go short and get beat. I would have to think the efficiency of the market overrides human error (e.g over zealous in running backers). You are saying you are happy to lay X horse @ 1.2 in a given race but they can take that price during the race when the horses real price is shorter. Maybe I'm wrong though. Also, Easy mentioned a list of 80 horses earlier. I would have thought you'd need a list closer to 800 for it to be worthwhile.
On Finny, if he had decided five strides out to go long you'd understand it. However, he had it in his head from the back of the second last to go gung ho. It was an example of youthful exuberance getting the better of him. He'll be fine though, has the raw materials of a good rider. He's been kept away from p2p's so far (only handful of rides in them). I imagine he's father will take the leash of him for the autumn season and give the novice riders title a crack.
If you accept that you cannot compete with the guys at the track, then you have to give up some value if you want to take out insurance.
The loss of value over time is lessened by the competition amongst those trackside and the fact that they can get it wrong.
The loss of value over time is lessened by the competition amongst those trackside and the fact that they can get it wrong.
It's not just a stop price insurance though Ozy. I think what Easy is doing is laying these horses at the prices as opposed to covering his own stake on them.
Also how do you quantify value when you are not watching the racing live? You are laying a horse at a bigger price than their real price. You will surely lose over time doing this, the same as you would doing it pre-race.
Dont think any serious punters embrace in running unless they are trackside . Some may put up lays or backs ( presumably for small amounts ) for a bit of fun , occasionally a layer may have been left high and dry with an initial back and they leave the lay up hoping for someone to take it .
Some "in the know " punters may also indulge , if you know your horse / fancy is going to be out the back most of the race you will get value , but there are no guarantees and you pays your money and takes your chance .
Some "in the know " punters may also indulge , if you know your horse / fancy is going to be out the back most of the race you will get value , but there are no guarantees and you pays your money and takes your chance .
Possibly he is. However, the margins are fairly tight on this arbitrage.
Take Fort Smith for example. He has hit lows of 1.3, 1.01 and 1.8 in running this season before getting beat. What's the basement price you put in for him to keep in running?
Take Fort Smith for example. He has hit lows of 1.3, 1.01 and 1.8 in running this season before getting beat. What's the basement price you put in for him to keep in running?
I'm confused now, think people might be taking at cross purposes. Or perhaps I have inadvertently used the wrong terminology.
Never mind.
Never mind.
Laying everything back in running is madness.
Laying a particular horse in running on the basis he won't stay or is a dodge pot is a different matter.
Its not he trackside layers that get the cream its the robots.
Laying a particular horse in running on the basis he won't stay or is a dodge pot is a different matter.
Its not he trackside layers that get the cream its the robots.
Just on Fort Smith, the more realistic level he is operating at now over flights and now beginners and summer novice chases, I can see him falling in and winning a few times this summer.
Some of his form is really good for a summer horse although we can't exactly take it literally.
I think fences (less of a stamina test as they go slower) and the less attritional summer racing on good summer ground could be the making of him (by Presenting, gd ground).
Can see a Beginners chase falling down around him this summer where 1.2 at the last will actually be huge in reality! this is a horse that went off evns for a Christmas Leopardstown Bumper and still only six.
Some of his form is really good for a summer horse although we can't exactly take it literally.
I think fences (less of a stamina test as they go slower) and the less attritional summer racing on good summer ground could be the making of him (by Presenting, gd ground).
Can see a Beginners chase falling down around him this summer where 1.2 at the last will actually be huge in reality! this is a horse that went off evns for a Christmas Leopardstown Bumper and still only six.
And who say`s that the real price is right??? I do it my way. It works. 80 horses x that by an average of 7 races a year= 560. I have a lot of time to judge my races that suit the way I think a race will go. I play @ low odds, I can get it wrong a lot of times, but only need to get it right a few times to make a nice profit.
80 slow horses is a lot in your favour, and you think the guy`s at the track are ahead, time maybe but when push comes to shove I`m ahead.
80 slow horses is a lot in your favour, and you think the guy`s at the track are ahead, time maybe but when push comes to shove I`m ahead.
I tell you who you remind me of, easygold;
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Many interesting point on this thread.However I cannot see how Wildman's assertion at 10.09 regarding robots is correct.Maybe he can elaborate?
Not meant to be derogatory but Borneo is almost a Luddite (more a generational thing tbf) and is probably just regurgitating something he heard from someone that not is well informed and was generalising.
A bot obviously can't beat a human who has access to the fastest pics (ie live) but it can be developed to follow the fastest players based on liquidity.
Some on here might consider utilising automatic offsets to % of a stake as a bot it's very easily set up on Gruss.
Anyone that has working knowledge of Excel VBA (developer mode) should be able to construct more complex bots but they can't defeat a human with fast pics,they can at best attempt to piggy back. There is still risk involved as there is in all arbitrage unless it's simultaneous arbitrage (which is impossible on one platform).
The largest bot of all is another reason why this exchange's name is the ultimate oxymoron.
A bot obviously can't beat a human who has access to the fastest pics (ie live) but it can be developed to follow the fastest players based on liquidity.
Some on here might consider utilising automatic offsets to % of a stake as a bot it's very easily set up on Gruss.
Anyone that has working knowledge of Excel VBA (developer mode) should be able to construct more complex bots but they can't defeat a human with fast pics,they can at best attempt to piggy back. There is still risk involved as there is in all arbitrage unless it's simultaneous arbitrage (which is impossible on one platform).
The largest bot of all is another reason why this exchange's name is the ultimate oxymoron.
~= Not strictly impossible on one platform but rare(for any significant amount) as an O/R bot will eliminate/correct it.
How well you know me DJ.
Betfair told me,when the premium charge was introduced their excuse was this fellow in Sweden had some super equipment and was mopping up all the money on fallers,they had tried to shut him down but he kept popping up again.
Recently I was told this Swedish gentlemen is paying 60% premium charge.
We all have seen those shadowy figures outside Southwell trying to get an edge.
I have raced a fair bit in England and Ireland since,never seen anyone there stopped for having a computer.
In Ireland the bookies are all on the purple,that is completely robot driven.
Genuine questions here.
Why is no one at Irish racing just laying fallers.
Why is no one laying horses that miss the break
Betfair told me,when the premium charge was introduced their excuse was this fellow in Sweden had some super equipment and was mopping up all the money on fallers,they had tried to shut him down but he kept popping up again.
Recently I was told this Swedish gentlemen is paying 60% premium charge.
We all have seen those shadowy figures outside Southwell trying to get an edge.
I have raced a fair bit in England and Ireland since,never seen anyone there stopped for having a computer.
In Ireland the bookies are all on the purple,that is completely robot driven.
Genuine questions here.
Why is no one at Irish racing just laying fallers.
Why is no one laying horses that miss the break
Their excuse also for the PC was for money advertising but that seems to be for the penny halpenny sportsbook these days.
Betting promotions ltd is the Swedish company,that has been around a long time and if what you say is true has evolved from market making and seeding from its earlier days.I thought i read at some stage that betfair was involved financially in that company but not sure of that.
In regards the fallers they seem to be very consistent with timing to live video to me in Ireland which would be in contrast to some UK tracks,not sure are there any/many Irish track players.
Betting promotions ltd is the Swedish company,that has been around a long time and if what you say is true has evolved from market making and seeding from its earlier days.I thought i read at some stage that betfair was involved financially in that company but not sure of that.
In regards the fallers they seem to be very consistent with timing to live video to me in Ireland which would be in contrast to some UK tracks,not sure are there any/many Irish track players.
Very out of date as from 2008 but very large scale even then;
43,000 bets per day,winning money on 54% of them.
No loss on the previous 11 quarters.
78% of the betting total revolved around football.
They did get involved in horseracing in 2007 but pulled out whether they went back into it with new technology in the last few years i'm not too sure but a sneaking suspicion they may well have.
43,000 bets per day,winning money on 54% of them.
No loss on the previous 11 quarters.
78% of the betting total revolved around football.
They did get involved in horseracing in 2007 but pulled out whether they went back into it with new technology in the last few years i'm not too sure but a sneaking suspicion they may well have.
I'd be racing most days , and have only seen 2 people playing on track in all that time , one was at Fairyhouse a few months ago , the other was at Leopardstown last Sunday ..
Mahsoob was done at 1000 there. Nothing other than the 'fast fingers' being a bit too feckin fast. Granted its prob a lad trackside that pocketed, but it most certainly a lad trackside that has done his 32k.
Yes callit it was definitely a quick pic/trackside punter who did his dough. Just goes to show.
Yes callit it was definitely a quick pic/trackside punter who did his dough. Just goes to show.
Anyone laying out 32 k to win €32 deserves a hiding.
As usual Wonky is way of the mark.
Every Irish meeting is covered and has been with at least 8 years (whether you see a few green lads with laptops or not is irrelevant),every faller is laid.
I am busy this evening will drop you a PM tonight/tomorrow WM.
As usual Wonky is way of the mark.
Every Irish meeting is covered and has been with at least 8 years (whether you see a few green lads with laptops or not is irrelevant),every faller is laid.
I am busy this evening will drop you a PM tonight/tomorrow WM.
Who are these layers at these Irish race meetings ?
The one thing we know about these layers is they have fortunes in their accounts,that has always suggested to me its these robots.
I accept that DJ876 is way ahead of me in this department but I am genuinely perplexed.
One of the more frequent complaints I hear is that Betfair are in cohoots with this expert in Sweden as they get 60% of the spoils,seems a reasonable criticism to me.
The one thing we know about these layers is they have fortunes in their accounts,that has always suggested to me its these robots.
I accept that DJ876 is way ahead of me in this department but I am genuinely perplexed.
One of the more frequent complaints I hear is that Betfair are in cohoots with this expert in Sweden as they get 60% of the spoils,seems a reasonable criticism to me.
I think you are mixing up the way robots work in different sports.In tennis/cricket for example each play/ball bowled results in a different betting market on completion of the play.The fastest to feed the result of each play into their automated system can hoover up a couple of prices down to their pre determined market position.They then close out with profit.The robot is dependent on the courtsider providing the information for it to beat the market.
In horseracing it is impossible for a robot to operate in this manner.Firstly they cannot have preset prices to cover each eventuality.There are simply too many imponderables for this to happen.Secondly any track player will always beat a robot to the punch so to speak.
I cannot see your point about large balances and robots.Every account is surely owned by an individual/syndicate not a robot??
dj..when you say every meeting is covered..do you mean by track players or by somebody cracking the SIS code and getting raw feed?Or both?
In horseracing it is impossible for a robot to operate in this manner.Firstly they cannot have preset prices to cover each eventuality.There are simply too many imponderables for this to happen.Secondly any track player will always beat a robot to the punch so to speak.
I cannot see your point about large balances and robots.Every account is surely owned by an individual/syndicate not a robot??
dj..when you say every meeting is covered..do you mean by track players or by somebody cracking the SIS code and getting raw feed?Or both?
All I know is one individual has developed something so fast that he was mopping up all the money on fallers.
They tried everything to block him but he just kept reemerging,this is their alleged reason for bringing in the Premium Charge.
He apparently pays the 60% charge without a murmur,no alternative
The reason I thought the lads going 1000/1 have large balances is something on their computer allows them to " kill and lay " so when a horse falls something mops everything up,that could be a fifty at 500 and so on,there could be a potential loss of a couple of hundred grand.
They tried everything to block him but he just kept reemerging,this is their alleged reason for bringing in the Premium Charge.
He apparently pays the 60% charge without a murmur,no alternative
The reason I thought the lads going 1000/1 have large balances is something on their computer allows them to " kill and lay " so when a horse falls something mops everything up,that could be a fifty at 500 and so on,there could be a potential loss of a couple of hundred grand.
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