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27 Apr 15
08:38
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30 Nov 10
Unlike John Oxx or Aidan OBrien A Dermot Weld second string doesn't win.
Whether it was Lowry or Shanahan it was generally the same,horse misses break never nearer.
He worked on the basis he can't do your first string if he's not on the premises,punters like him for this.
Yesterday in Gowran Weld had two Khalid Abdullah fillies in a maiden,Variable hot 1/2 favourite,Leigh Roche on second string Morselle.
Morselle breaks well,Roche glances between his legs in first furlong.
Variable manoeuvres into second place,Roche again peers between his legs,turns in cantering but swings wide waving Variable up the rail.
Despite this help Variable still managed to lose.
Whether it was Lowry or Shanahan it was generally the same,horse misses break never nearer.
He worked on the basis he can't do your first string if he's not on the premises,punters like him for this.
Yesterday in Gowran Weld had two Khalid Abdullah fillies in a maiden,Variable hot 1/2 favourite,Leigh Roche on second string Morselle.
Morselle breaks well,Roche glances between his legs in first furlong.
Variable manoeuvres into second place,Roche again peers between his legs,turns in cantering but swings wide waving Variable up the rail.
Despite this help Variable still managed to lose.
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Very small sample size i would say Wildman actually out of interest how many races are you working with in your sample size? Lee obviously knew e was not going to win on the 2nd string and when you the first string getting beat he was right.
Are you in Ozymandius style looking for a report.
Its only a comment on a race in Gowran.
General comments are surely permitted without a host of back up statistics.
Dermot Weld may have won the odd race with a second string ( the last I remember was Vintage Crop in Thurles ) but they are rare.
John Oxx had medals for it for years,he even extended to third and fourth strings,Aidan OBrien has been doing it most recently often with a little touch being landed on the second string.
Its only a comment on a race in Gowran.
General comments are surely permitted without a host of back up statistics.
Dermot Weld may have won the odd race with a second string ( the last I remember was Vintage Crop in Thurles ) but they are rare.
John Oxx had medals for it for years,he even extended to third and fourth strings,Aidan OBrien has been doing it most recently often with a little touch being landed on the second string.
I am pretty sure Vintage Crop was the last one WMFB. He nearly done for punters again against a hotpot Sharp Review in a Leop hcp over an inadequate trip, but as Wm says DKW isn't one for having a rag beat the jolly when the cash is down.
He has obviously had yokes win handicaps that were bigger in the market than others, but not a 'second string' as such.
He has obviously had yokes win handicaps that were bigger in the market than others, but not a 'second string' as such.
I would say Wildman is actually counting any horse of Weld's that started as a bigger price than a more fancied stable mate as a 2nd string callit. Imo 2nd string horses are quite often over looked and if you know they are allowed to run to their merit then often you can see them backed.
I wouldn't give any credence to a jockeys decision as regards punting.
McCoy choosing AFC in the 2014 WH was baffling. But it resulted in the winner being ignored in the market the couple of days before the race. A jockeys decision should never have so much impact on a market.
If you rate your own reading of a form/a particular race, you shouldn't think you're wrong because someone elses opinion is different. As you say, quite often it results in the 'discarded one' being overpriced.
But WMFB was referring principally to maidens. And he is correct. DKW second strings don't win them. They aren't off a yard.
McCoy choosing AFC in the 2014 WH was baffling. But it resulted in the winner being ignored in the market the couple of days before the race. A jockeys decision should never have so much impact on a market.
If you rate your own reading of a form/a particular race, you shouldn't think you're wrong because someone elses opinion is different. As you say, quite often it results in the 'discarded one' being overpriced.
But WMFB was referring principally to maidens. And he is correct. DKW second strings don't win them. They aren't off a yard.
Gone slightly off the boil from a stunning first few weeks of the season,not unexpected.
Thought there were a few occasions last season when 3-4 went off in what seemed friendless in the market to win at big prices in maidens(mostly at Gowran if i'm right), Summaya this season is one,very quietly done for what i haven't(maybe wrongly) considered a punting yard.
Thought there were a few occasions last season when 3-4 went off in what seemed friendless in the market to win at big prices in maidens(mostly at Gowran if i'm right), Summaya this season is one,very quietly done for what i haven't(maybe wrongly) considered a punting yard.
"Off the boil" is very harsh and i feel totally incorrect Pa, no one could keep up that strike rate, his last winner was 2 days ago and only one day's racing has passed since !!!!!!!!
How is it "totally incorrect? 2 wins from his last 32 runners is what happened,not what you think happened.
So i am wrong and you're right Pa that Weld is totally off the boil despite having 2 winners from his last 12 runners 3 2nd places and 2 3rd places and couple of 4th place finishes???!!
Think yourself right if you want to,it is 2 wins from his last 32 runners,that is irrefutable.
well played, Rock.
I have always thought the media to be very lazy when pasting someone as a 'cold trainer' after a period of no, or few winners.
Rockets is a small sample size, but is more indicative of how DKs are actually performing. Looking at the percentage of placed horses compared to their place expectancy from BFSP, is a far better indication of how hot or cold a particular trainer is.
The '1 winner from his last 79 runners' tripe usually trotted out is just lazy media analysis.
Rockets is a small sample size, but is more indicative of how DKs are actually performing. Looking at the percentage of placed horses compared to their place expectancy from BFSP, is a far better indication of how hot or cold a particular trainer is.
The '1 winner from his last 79 runners' tripe usually trotted out is just lazy media analysis.
Pa but you are still arguing he is totally out of form despite having the stats i posted for his last 12 runners, it is you who are arguing that those stats represent a trainer who is totally out of form ! Obviously if Pa was making a book he would be pushing out Weld's runners with those terrible stats as he is "totally off the boil" !!!!!!
Are ya for real Rocket? 9.31 "gone slightly off the boil,not unexpected", slightly is one word i'd like you to concentrate a bit on because you are trying to put "totally" in instead of it which was never there.
If Pa was making a book he would price them right,the best judge of a market on here.
Weld is a great trainer,he had his soft ground horses ready nice and early and made hay.
The change in ground has coincided in him going slightly off the boil.
What amazes me is the short price they are taking some of his maidens.
Weld is a great trainer,he had his soft ground horses ready nice and early and made hay.
The change in ground has coincided in him going slightly off the boil.
What amazes me is the short price they are taking some of his maidens.
Ok but has Weld gone off the boil with the stats i have just listed Pa? As i said before it would be impossible to keep up his early season form, that strike rate was simply incredible, a slowing down and a return closer to mean would have to be expected at some point, although the last 12 runner stats are still impressive and you are totally wrong to say he is now off the boil.
Yeah it was incredible and couldn't be kept up, you are conveniently using 12 while i am conveniently using a larger span of 32,agree not a lot to read into it except the Weld "honeymoon period" finished a week or so ago imo and the change in ground was no help as stated.
Valac,s debut run no way justified his price last night.
Valac,s debut run no way justified his price last night.
But using 32 as a sample size does not prove your opinion, actually it disproves it more if anything because it still shows his horses running well.
Using your 12,a 1/2,4/7 and 4/5 were all beat,they were expected to win,the places amongst the 32 were in a lot of cases in small runner fields of 7 or less,you can dress it up anyway it suits you but it is still only 2 winners from his last 32 runners and you are trying to argue he is bang in form.
The market has been skewed a bit though in the last couple of weeks, so in reality his charges didn't perform as being beaten at them prices might suggest. They should never have been them prices in the first place, and only where because he had been having an unsustainable run.
He has a cracking crop of 3 year olds this year, and could certainly bag himself a Classic. Before the big ones in Ballybrit!!
He has a cracking crop of 3 year olds this year, and could certainly bag himself a Classic. Before the big ones in Ballybrit!!
Can't ever remember him having such a start , he got his horses ready early ,ala Stack and reaped the rewards ..I'd expect him to taper off soon , then come good again around Galway ..He'll keep his good horses in top nick for the Classics ,I think he got first run on a couple of trainers...
She didn't win but Sparkle Factor ran a stormer on her seasonal debut in a competitive race at Gowran on Sunday. I am always interested in the 4yo females that these big operations keep in training. Suggests to me they feel they have plenty more mileage in their legs.
Sparkle Factor is something of a rarity in that she seems to be a pure 7f performer. She is a certainty for a race off her mark if DKW can find a 7f handicap on quick ground, preferably on a sharpish track as she travels quite well.
Sparkle Factor is something of a rarity in that she seems to be a pure 7f performer. She is a certainty for a race off her mark if DKW can find a 7f handicap on quick ground, preferably on a sharpish track as she travels quite well.
She was a bit of an eyecatcher alright , and well looked after ...
RR has me stumped,I have never seen a notebook where the number of consecutive losers are now hailed.
It seems to revert between a laying and punting notebook but you can't dispute the bottom line, fair dues to him.
It seems to revert between a laying and punting notebook but you can't dispute the bottom line, fair dues to him.
My Twinkle and the drift worried me but backed her small at 5/2.
A double for Showcasing.
A double for Showcasing.
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