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Swardean
09 Apr 15 07:43
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Date Joined: 06 May 10
| Topic/replies: 16,280 | Blogger: Swardean's blog
Looks like being a scorcher and can't wait for this.   Booked in the Queen Mother Roof, so hopefully will be like a sun terrace up there.  Sunglasses at the ready.

On to the racing. 

No real strong view in the first
Hargam looks to have few weaknesses and much the likely winner.  However a little short for me.  All Yours at 16/1 looks a fair ew bet in the second (without the fav).
Betfred Bowl - Ma Filleule has conditions to suit and hoping step up in trip will see this one home.
Rock on Ruby -  Missing Cheltenham could be blessing
Foxhunters - Twirling Magnet seems to have sorted out his jumping so small ew bet around 11/1
Claret Cloak is perhaps my biggest bet at 10/1 ew.   A horse I have always liked who was unlucky in a lot of top handicaps last years.  Looks plotted for the race, goes well fresh, excellent jockey booking and claim.  Just hope they haven't over watered.
Luck last - No strong opinion

Any one have any strong views or fancies today?

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Replies: 41
By:
Newmanix
When: 09 Apr 15 07:52
405 Last time d'albain WinkWink
By:
Swardean
When: 09 Apr 15 07:52
I will update tomorrow on the day and face the inevitable embarrassment of the above selections.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 09 Apr 15 09:14
Hargam 5/4 with ladcrokes Shocked that for real, thought 8/11 was too big

would rather play Silviniaco Conti and Jezki at the prices in the other races
By:
kavvie
When: 09 Apr 15 09:35
hargam 4/6 lads?!?!  as usual they are tight
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 09 Apr 15 09:45
he was 5/4 for a while with them according to oddschecker, probably a special to max €0.00
By:
kavvie
When: 09 Apr 15 09:50
seems to be drifting a bit on here  1.83   ill back it..should win..
By:
workrider
When: 09 Apr 15 11:46
Kavvie are you home , or at Aintree ?
By:
Ozymandius
When: 09 Apr 15 11:58
How are you chaps weighing up the 3rd race?  Struggling for a placepot pick.

Holywell..seems weak in market
Sil Conti.....3s could look a big price after race, but Nicholls, understandably, not bullish
Ma Feuille...consistent sort

Pin struggling to come down.
By:
callitasucit
When: 09 Apr 15 12:06
Menorah looks a cracking bet in that Oz.

I may back Sil Conti too, but Menorah is going to love track and ground. Has the benefit of having missed the war of attrition that was the Gold Cup, and has only 2 length to find on SC from his 2nd last run, with conditions more suitable here.

Hargham will be very hard to beat, and backed it at 4-5.

First is a tricky affair. Vibrato was much better than the result at Aintree, and should really be fav here. JH looks a very tricky conveyance. I could see him dogging it, even if he is good enough. Clarcam looks overpriced, and I can see him fighting it out with VV.

Cant have Arctic Fire in the Hurdle, and have backed the other two at 3s and 4s. AF should not be fav. Ridden for second in CH. May pull here, may not be suited by trip, and may not be best horse. Silly price.

Think Ned Buntline can gain revenge in the last.

Chinese Light will win the 5.45 at Tipp. Very well thought of before debut, she was surprisingly beaten. The form of that is still good enough to win this. She was working very poorly before her second outing. Expect a lot better today. 11-10 is good bet.
By:
TellTheKing
When: 09 Apr 15 12:53
Josses Hill should be suited by the step up in trip but tough race to be too dogmatic about.

Hargam will win.

I am as positive about Silviniaco Conti as I was negative in the GC. He will be seen to much better light around Aintree. I am unconvinced about Holywell's jumping with AP on board around this sharper track. Henderson's mare doesn't look like she needs the trip to me. Menorah isn't as good as SC. At 3/1 Silviniaco Conti has to be the bet.

Arctic Fire has to be taken on at his current price. Huge engine but has failed to collect too often. He has won two races in Ireland (beating the serial placers Gassin Golf and Enchanted Forest) and the trip is an unknown. Obviously can win but no value at all in his price.

I've backed Warne e/w (6's with WH faller insurance) in the Foxhunters. His course form is a big plus and he has been specifically laid out for the race. Has everything in his favour today. It's the best renewal of a hunters chase I can remember but Warne will take catching. The On The Fringe win in Cheltenham looks very suspect form as it was such a visual leap from his previous attempts there.

On the proviso that the ground is no worse then yielding I would give Astracad a chance @ 16's. Career low mark over fences and has run well in around here before (4th last year off 8lb's higher). Don't think theres too many in it holding secret from Phil Smith.

Marinero doesn't look terribly well handicapped but the step up in trip could bring out some improvement and the experience of the Coral cup will stand to him. There's worse 25/1 shots around.
By:
norn iron
When: 09 Apr 15 13:37
THREE KINGDOMS  REV4CAST CLARCAM

DEVILMENT   SAVER EW STARS BY THE SEA

SMAD PLACE DANGER MENORAH

JETSKI NAP  REV4CAST  VANITEAUX

WARNE  REV4CAST ON THE FRINGE

NED BUNTLINE SAVER KARINGA DANCER

ULZANAS RAID  SAVER EW APACHE JACK
By:
callitasucit
When: 09 Apr 15 13:46
Nice start.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 09 Apr 15 13:47
Lovely ride, Ruby. You can't beat him.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 09 Apr 15 14:25
AP well beaten on a shure thing..again...done my bollox on the beast.  Does any good horse ever run for the b@stard? (scratch that, pocket talking BUT...will be delighted to see the back of him! he is not lucky for me)
By:
norn iron
When: 09 Apr 15 14:27
MY MATE HAS 1£    L31  CLARCAM /ALL YOURS /SILVO CONTI/ROC ON RUBY/TAGIETELLIE = SOME START= I SAID THEY donkies Shocked HOPE HE GET AT LEAST ONE MORE
By:
kavvie
When: 09 Apr 15 14:39
sum start is right norn..wow
By:
norn iron
When: 09 Apr 15 14:46
JEEZ JP MCMANUS FAIR LOOKS AFTER HIS HORSES GREAT TOO SEE AS HE SEEMS LOVE THEM BIGTIME ESP ISTABRAQLove
By:
workrider
When: 09 Apr 15 15:10
Pa , Callit ,you have mail...
By:
Ozymandius
When: 09 Apr 15 15:32
Artic Fire was cruising at the last there, what is it with Ruby and and the curse of the final hurdle?
By:
norn iron
When: 09 Apr 15 15:36
GREAT SEE ARTIC FIRE  UP / STILL THINK JEZSKI WOULD OUTSTAYED HIM BUT THATS RACIN AN OPINIONS
By:
pa lapsy
When: 09 Apr 15 15:46
Doubt it Norn myself,think Artic should/would have won easily but was given a bit too much to do,no need for him to be asking for a big one there. I don't know how Ruby manages it at the last.
By:
frank60
When: 09 Apr 15 15:51
Ruby wont ride for the rest of the day, but ok for tomorrow,S hit happens
By:
ACE JACK DOUBLE SUITED
When: 09 Apr 15 15:52
He's had his fair share of huge last flight fallers over the years.... 2002 adamant approach supreme is another big one that springs to mind.
By:
TellTheKing
When: 09 Apr 15 15:56
Mother of god Pa what are you on about? What was he supposed to do? Horse met it right, just got in too low. Happens plenty of times, Arctic Fire just going too quick to have any chance of getting a landing gear out. He's hardly supposed to break jaw in between horses in a Grade One hurdle? After the last is always plenty of time to be hitting the front with that horse too.

If you are referencing the Annie Power fall the whole world knows she took off at the shadow. No-one could have done anything about it. Totally difference scenario to this one.

There seems to be an assumption with punters that Ruby is flooring horses at the last. This is just an illusion because he is involved in far more finishes (particularly high profile ones) than any other rider and it happens occasionally.

I guarantee if you went through p2p's Derek O' Connor and Jamie Codd have more last fence fallers than any other riders for the same reasons. They are still the two best by a minute.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 09 Apr 15 16:03
Good post, TTK, that would be how I would see it too.

Well done with Slivianco.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 09 Apr 15 16:07
Easily far and away the best horse in the race Tell the King,ought to have that race won ea at the time without asking for a jump,not sure about hitting the front too soon with him and maybe that is where they are going wrong with him.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 09 Apr 15 16:16
GTFI Nina ya good thing!  That helps!

Same again on Saturday, please.
By:
norn iron
When: 09 Apr 15 16:21
WHAT CLASS RIDE FROM NINA   AND FIRST LIEUTENANT  GREAT EW BET SAT

PA THING IS AP ALSO SAID HE HADNT WENT fully   FOR JEZSKI   BUT ALL ABOUT OPINIONS  BUT ARTIC FIRE DOESNT ALWAYS FIND MUCH STILL THINK IT BE PHOTO FINISH AS BOTH JOCS JUDGED PACE SUPERBLY ARRIVING WITH GOOD BIT LEFT   BUT UNFORTUNETLY WE WILL NEVER NO  .

  BUT MAIN THING IS BOTH GOT UP TO FIGHT AGAIN  RUBY WAS CLASS STAYED WITH HORSE EVEN WHEN HE WAS INJURED


BRAVE LADS THESE JOCKEYS = RESPECT
By:
frank60
When: 09 Apr 15 16:24
Class ride Nina, She was on the best horse but she kept him clear of trouble early, got 7/2 this morning  happy with that.
By:
norn iron
When: 09 Apr 15 16:30
FENCES LOOK EVEN smaller    THIS YEAR?
By:
kavvie
When: 09 Apr 15 16:33
ruby was interviewed on c4 after artic fires fall..jeez he was very shook.could barely talk..tough men..
By:
frank60
When: 09 Apr 15 16:36
Norn do you remember you could get 7/2 in the old days about a horse getting around , [on most of the runners anyway]
By:
Ozymandius
When: 09 Apr 15 17:23
Blood hell, Norn, what will that friend of yours collect?
By:
kavvie
When: 09 Apr 15 17:24
sum pay out id imagine for 31 pounds..
By:
Ozymandius
When: 09 Apr 15 17:26
getting on for 10K?
By:
TellTheKing
When: 09 Apr 15 17:32
I make it 5,102 based on 5/2 Silviniaco and SP the rest. Some touch whatever it pays out.

Had few quid e/w Marinero @ 25's. Fair play to David Mullins for keeping going when the saddle went but he didn't get any reward for his efforts.
By:
tobywong.
When: 09 Apr 15 17:32
4676 at sp
By:
Ozymandius
When: 09 Apr 15 17:36
i imagine he beat SP on several of them.  All Yours was 20s all morning.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 09 Apr 15 17:38
Clarcam at least 6s etc etc etc.
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