Whats the odds on Ruby picking Faugheen over the Fly in the Champion?

Just how good was last years CH? The CH market seems very forgiving towards Jezki this term. A cynical view of it would be that he beat MTOY who pulled for a mile and a half, and who couldn't beat Champagne Fever a year previous. Back in third was TNO who was very unlucky in running. Hurricane Fly didn't give his running, and Our Conor fell.

Is Jezki actually much better than he has been showing this year? Its only that one run that suggests he is, there are plenty of others to suggest the opposite. But the market keeps the faith.

Don't think Cheltenham in March on  the normally fastish ground does any favours to HF and he was fairly listless there as well in the 2012 renewal when third behind Rock On Ruby and Overturn .

Unless Ruby has an attack of nostalgia and wants to dis the biggest and best owner the stable has ever had he'll be on Faugheen.

Punches I dont believe for a second that the ground was good to soft on the Tuesday last year - was the 2 mile record not broken twice that day. However I also expect Ruby to be on Faugheen irrespective of ground.

Callit I've been thinking about the quality of last years race also but tbf it appears to have been a fast run race. While I do believe that Artic Fire is under-rated his closeness to HF and Jezki would certainly question the form. All of this togrther with all the excuses offered for TNO may explain why Faugheen is such a hot favourite

maybe a beech road year lads?

Its a Faugheen year Kav!

Main reason for questioning last years CH Arkle is I didn't have Jezki down as a real top notcher before it. And nothing he has done since suggests that either.

Our Conor went some lick in it, and ground prob bit faster than recent years.

The Beech Road result was amazing at the time, given he was coming back from fences I think.

What was even more amazing was the price he then went off at Aintree before sluicing up.

Who rides Arctic Fire on better ground if both Faugheen and HF line up ?

Catch me,David Casey has ridden it when the other 2 were unavailable before including a 2nd place finish in the Vincent O'Brien last year so probably him.

D Casey I'd say..

If they both run there is not a hope of Ruby riding the fly! Faugheen is a different league to him at this stage of his career. The fly won't be mapped in a good ground CH. He couldn't go the gallop today FFS. He hasn't a prayer in a CH unless it came up bottomless! You can tell by the way Ruby is talking there isn't a hope of him picking the fly!

Casey marginally better than D Mullins!

I`m hoping Zamdy Man or Blue Heron line-up....... pacesetters could be hard to find

Or Bertimont???

Blue Heron set the Xmas hurdle up nicely. Ruby would be happy enough to sit in behind him. Take it up coming to two out. Put it to bed from there.

I`m in The New One camp the faster the better for him so hopefully we have at least one of those line-up.

Callit and Neil D have the Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh scenario spot on.

And though they will be able to explain away a lot of their choices,it's surely difficult to dispute that UDS should have ran in the Champion hurdle last year.

Although I suppose if he had ran in the champion last year then allegedly he wouldn't be the horse he is this year.The reality of it was the Fly and WPM's legacy were the critical factors.

UDS would have pulverized the CH field last season,The horse is a freak.

I,d agree with that at 19.42,a good post,though on the same line of thought,surely the champion chase ought to be the race this year?,very doubtful it will happen but the CC isn't strong,Vautour gets the Arkle gig and Champagne Fever for the ryanair(though with Champagne really as said by others as well would love to see him flake off in the CC).

I think Fever is extremely highly regarded within the yard Pa and they want to give him his shot at a Championship race. They always say we have never seen the best of him on the course and I tend to believe them. He neat the CH 1-2 in the supreme after all. If he were to use himself on the Wednesday like he did in the Supreme, he will win the Champion Chase for me. Also, the main man Ricci owns him, and I'd say there is a hierarchy there and the Connells will be happy to take their Arkle given last year's events.

The Arkle is nearly as prestigious as the Champion Chase for me anyway. great great race.

Yeah you are right Neill,they have such an embaressment of superstars its unnatural,UDS would probably win the Cham Hur this year as well if no Faugheen in it,6 winners is the early spread for WPM,9/4 for 7 is a big ask given a flop or two and misfortune but on paper it looks tempting.

I'm glad for the Connells after last year Pa, they seem like really nice people and they took all the French excursions with great humour and dare I say dignity. A Flemenstar style owner could have caused a lot of trouble there and it's not like they'll ever get another horse like this. Plenty would be sore they haven't a Champion Hurdle to take chasing with them.

It's a funny one, Mullins was bad for UDS in the sense that he prevented him running in the Champion Hurdle and winning the greatest 2 mile race. Cheltenham is at core the CC & the GC.

But this horse more than most top horses probably needs the expertise of Mullins & his team to teach him how to race. That all came to fruition on Sunday. would another trainer have done as well with him.

Classic catch 22 for the owners.

Some horse for a "small owner" indeed,think he had Turban with him as well,decent enough but no world beater, maybe it is working out right after Sunday i suppose though not saying that was the intention, all UDS looks to do now is stand up.

He had another couple of horses as well in recent years,Seven Days and Up Ou Dat,both now 10yo's and a maiden hurdle between them, he is now living the dream.

who does ruby ride in ch hurd?  faugheen 2/9 fly 3/10

10/3 fly sorry.

Special Tiara would be a bit of nuisance if for some reason UDS went C.C route....... but I think it`s save to say Arkle route for sure.

MY opening thread has around the same odds as yourself Kav,and if the ground is heavy? maybe less on H.F.

No chance Frank,heavy ground won't inconvenience Faugheen and might suit him more than HF,injury is the only way imo you would be collecting on this non story.

well theres bookies quoting them odds!!

Who is that Kavvie?

Maybe Ruby will get a bout of Sentimentally on the sunday before the C/H and pick the Fly on the other hand theres  the % money when Faugheen wins.

Betfair "sportsbook" is all i can see Kavvie good luck with that,last time i tried to get a bet with them they took E7 on a 5/1 shot.
Ruby is very sentimental alright Frank,

bf sports book  but they wouldnt take 5euro so i dont know if that counts..barry orr says they got creased when they went 11/8 uds after yesterday..  creased is right..a fiver id say

You guys are lucky where sportsbook is concerned, my limit is 11 cent

I think if the fly runs @festival ruby will be on..

If you're right Tony then Rich Ricci won't be a happy camper..

maybe punchy..but will the fly run?

I'd be surprised if they skipped it Tony as probably a final tilt at the Crown although WPM can be very persuasive.

Can't see Ruby letting his heart rule his head.

over christmas wpm said in an interview that he considered the aintree hurdle over 2 1/2 to be a suitable race for the fly.he may have changed since but i remember  that interview and think thats what will happen

Theres a better chance of me riding Kelly Brook than Walsh riding the fly if both turn up healthy on the day.

That's it in a nutshell.... A stupid thread....

The National meeting is 9-11 April this year.

There are over 4 weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree.

Faugheen to run in both Champion and Aintree Hurdles.
The Fly to skip both.
Faugheen to be stated as "having had enough for the season after Aintree".
The Fly gets his swansong in another race not contaminated by his most talented stablemates.

iNTERESTING D.V.  I think its fair to say Ruby wouldn,t be unhappy with such an Arrangement ,i couldn,t say the same about Paul Townend

Sounds about right DV. On good ground there isn't really a race for HF at Chelt. Ready made excuse, as if WPM ever needs a realistic one.

It could be that HF goes to Aintree and Faugheen goes to Punchestown, but given the masterclass in rerouting and compromising the campaigns of stablemates for the past two seasons, it is hard to see Mullins missing the opportunity to give The Fly his swansong in Ireland.

More likely to be able to dictate the watering policy at Punch than Aintree, which could be pretty rattling. Makes more sense on a lot of fronts to have HF farewell at Punch.

ground concerns at punch tho..?no matter how much they water it..

What is this about Hurricane Fly's swansong? I'd say his swansong is at least one full year away out. He is the owner of three crowns so far this season and will be back to defend them.

For what it's worth on the what will Ruby ride debate .... I think he'll find it very difficult to get off The Fly.

Difficult in what way?

If he perceives the Fly to have as good or better chance of winning then yes.

There would not be an ounce of sentiment involved in the decision and he would probably be the only person breathing in the air in the Cotswolds that would rate the Fly's chances on a par with those of Faugheen.

If the two of them turn up in good condition......then the real betting is 1/1000000000 ruby rides Faugheen......and anyone who thinks otherwise.....hasn't got a notion about the game.....or indeed about the rider involved.....

paulie, your memory is short mate,..did I not tell you uds would not go to the ch?..you ridiculed that idea also if I remember?..i don't think the fly will run at the festival....so I don't think the question will be answered?..but for arguments sake..if hf runs at the festival..i think ruby will ride him..

Don't remember that Tony...... ruby walsh riding hurricane fly over faugheen is about as likely as another foot and mouth outbreak....anybody who thinks that hasn't a bulls.....and that's nothing personal.....no matter who they are.....it applies to anyone whos spouting such garbage......
Again its nothing personal.....but I would completely dismiss anything else they would say as well.....if they are in such a dreamland about something as easy to figure out as this.....

Paul TOWNEND THIS MORNING...PAUL TOWNEND,.. the man waiting on the best spare ride in racing, says it would be extra special if Ruby Walsh picked Faugheen over Hurricane Fly in the Stan James Champion Hurdle, leaving the way clear for him to partner the dual champion on whom he has already won six Grade 1 races.


The question on everybody's lips after Hurricane Fly surpassed the mighty Istabraq at Leopardstown last Sunday by winning his fifth Irish Champion Hurdle was Walsh's choice of ride at Cheltenham, and Paddy Power make him 1-10 to pick Faugheen (5-1 Hurricane Fly), a decision Townend would be delighted with.
"Obviously they both have to get there in one piece but, if they do, it's a lovely position to be in," he said. "Given I ride out Hurricane Fly and won my first Grade 1 on him it would be extra special if I got to ride him in a Champion Hurdle and it would be something I've always wanted to do.

"I owe Hurricane Fly a lot more than he owes me. He's been brilliant for my career. The Royal Bond in 2008 at Fairyhouse was my first ride in a Grade 1 and he won it so he's given me some wonderful memories. He's a horse of a lifetime."

If Walsh stays loyal to Hurricane Fly, who he has ridden in his last 18 races, Townend would not be too disheartened. He said: "I suppose you would say Hurricane Fly is the horse who's been there and done it whereas Faugheen is the up-and-coming one. He's the most exciting young horse coming through and he's looked awesome in all his starts. I haven't ridden him in public yet but I've ridden him loads at home. Whatever Ruby decides to do, I'll be pretty happy either way."   Sounds like Paul thinks they will both run.

Everything Ruby or WPM say is for their own benefit, and nothing to do with the benefit of any reading public. Paul Townend probably knows as little as the rest of us. He's on a need to know basis, and as far as the two lads are concerned, no one else needs to know.

But the only decision to be made here is whether they run HF. Ruby doesn't have a decision to make. One horse will be a backable 6-4 shot on the day, one would be a layable 10-1 shot. For all that I don't like Ruby as a person, I respect his winning mentality, and that is not of someone who will ride a yoke with very little hope in preference to a machine that could win the next 3 versions.

Hurricane Fly is probably  a shade of odds on to run, but that is not factored into the betting IMO. Jezki cannot start shorter than 5-1. HF cannot start shorter than Jezki. Its clear he is not the same horse around Chelt, and will more than likely have proper good ground to contend with, no matter what they call it. Hurricane will prob start 10-1, and only loose sentimental money will keep him that short. He is only just above that now, which suggests the market makes him about 1-8 to run. I very much doubt the decision is that cut and dried. No matter what PT says, thinks......or hopes. 

The one difference between last years scenario between UDS running, and this year with HF, is that Ruby was rightly very fearful of UDS beating him last year. So he culled that danger. This year he will have very little fear of HF doinf the same. But he may still decide its best for him to stay out of the way.

nice post callit,
  paulie,..I don't take it personal..you are you I know you well enough to get the way you are and respect it,..but last season you gave me the same sort of reply..anyone who thinks udc won't run is dreaming etc...itold you he would not run as mullins was playing politics..again,...you apoligised to me later..as ive said..i don't think for a minute the fly will run...but if he does..i think ruby will be on..its a contradiction..i know..but I stand by my opinion..we,ll see..

SoYouThink 27 Jan 15 20:48 Joined: 14 Jun 11 | Topic/replies: 1,149 | Blogger: SoYouThink's blog
What is this about Hurricane Fly's swansong? I'd say his swansong is at least one full year away out. He is the owner of three crowns so far this season and will be back to defend them.

For what it's worth on the what will Ruby ride debate .... I think he'll find it very difficult to get off The Fly....   AN interesting post by S.Y.T.and the only one who thinks Ruby could ride H.F.    IN the Unlikely Scenario i wonder what price H.F. would be on the day.

I be more interested in Faugheens price!!

F**k me, only 7 weeks left to chew this particular bone, lads, we should have it sorted by then.

fly will get a slight niggle a week before the ch hurdle. faugheen will win ch hurdle.fly will run in liverpool hurdle..faugheen will win also in punchestown

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Its sorted already Oz!! That's the point i'm trying to make

What gets me is that the same feckers telling us what will happen in Cheltenham in 7 weeks time, were all telling us to back Jezki last week!

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Somebody put catch me's jacket on him please......

With pleasure;

You'll notice they ADD NOTHING but VILE comments to most threads...have a look for yourself !

Thought you had us blocked.....how do you know what we said?....

JUST more VILE comments

Callitasucit... if u think ruby,or any jockey, has any meaningful input as to what races wpm horses run in then you dont know wpm very well.He calls it himself.He may,occasionally,consult a jockey but he goes by what he sees, not hears. Nor would I say its foregone that ruby will ride faugheen, he may well do so but he knows too that the fly didnt perform last year and a line should be drawn through it. It wasnt the track, it wasnt the ground, he just wasnt right......and anyone who thinks otherwise.........hasn't got a notion about the game.......as that other clown keeps saying

HF is yet to beat anything of note in a CH. Beat Peddlers Cross, who has won an egg an spoon chase since. Beaten by the one of the worst CH winners in recent memory in ROR. Beat the same horse to win his second CH. His run last year was not far behind what he twice did in victory. It was just a slightly better race. He is a year older this year, the ground may be faster, and he has two horses potentially quite a bit better than last years winner to contend with. Its very hard to see him win. Faugheen is a very deserving fav, and Ruby WILL ride him.

Ruby has a massive input as to what goes on, and what goes where, and if they go anywhere at all. That is fact.

That is all I will say on the matter, as its hard to argue with someone who cant tell black form white.

..from..

Ruby is a great jockey and willie knows this absolutely. But willie is a great trainer and ruby doesnt dictate to him... on anything....and that is fact.
Forget what Peddlers Cross did after that... he was a seriously good horse going into it. Unbeaten 8 from 8 and the champion novice the previous year. Take the fly out of it and he would have looked like a machine that day beating 2 very good horses by 5 lengths.
The fly was wrong in 2012 champion and again in punchestown(got away with it anyway) and showed this to be the case in 2013. He was wrong again last year in cheltenham and punchestown.Who knows why but i would say its more likely the boat trip than anything else.Would love to see him flown over on the day this year! But he has improved right back past the new champion again. His form this year is the best on offer. Faugheen could be anything but he has beaten nothing yet.

Some very interesting comments both for , and against.....

i doubt the fly would get faugheen off the bridle.i love the fly but i think faugheen could really dominate this race for a few years if he stays injury free..

Maybe so kavvie but i've seen far too many overhyped for passing trees.

Hard to say he has improved past the new champion again. Jezki never beat him at Leop last year, and has never beat him there this year. But has got closer once, and would have been twice, but for the last flight blunder on Sunday. That would suggest that in the battle between the two, HF has slightly regressed.

Firstimevisor......Try talking out your cakehole for a while.....and not the other end.....
The biggest load of Shiite ive ever read in all my life....

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Jacket please.......

There should be a lifetime ban handed out to Frank60 for starting the most inane thread of all time

It is a rubbish notion admittedly......but at least it weeds out some of the real clowns.....anybody who thinks its even the remotest possibility has no idea about the game.....and should be dismissed out of hand.....in all aspects of the game....

Cant say i buy into any of that "fly is better at leopardstown" crap either.    For the record here are his course stats for WPM   Leopardstown 10/10   punchestown 9/11   Fairyhouse 2/2   Cheltenham 2/4   Auteuil 1/1
And his stats for winter( Nov-Jan) 14/15 compared with spring (Mar-May) 10/13.   There's hardly any worthwhile disparity in these stats.
I'll expect The Fly to finish ahead of Jezki again in March

And it would be 4/4 Cheltenham and 11/11 Punchestown.....if he wasn't "wrong" the days he was beat....
What a load of ballcock.....

Pikey, you really wouldnt know would you.In your world, even money means lump on. 10-1 means 100000000/1. Explains the anger. The endless threads after odds on shots get beaten lashing out at jockeys, trainers.Even owners and agents get it cos pikey wants his revenge.

Pikey at it again over on the main forum re Lucy Alexander , same old same old with the Youghal traveler , everyday some poor jockey gets it when he does his bank ..Never a word about the Dodgy ones rides though...

Firsttimevisor......you are mixing up anger with frustration....there is a difference.....I should possibly ignore it.....but anybody writing that Walsh will or even may ride Hurricane Fly is talking horses Shiite.....and deserves to be told same.....

It wont bother me one bit who he rides in it . I'll be backing the Fly regardless. But its not black and white as to who ruby picks. And we all know that you like everything to be either black or white. But horse racing is as grey as it gets.

It is black and white as to what he rides......

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Jacket please.....

We shall see. You would be a backer at 1-10 Ruby to ride. I would be a layer at that price.

All I want is for somebody to give me ONE instance.....in the history of racing.....where a jockey with a choice .....picked a horse that was ten times the price of the other.....
Just one will do......and I will admit then its even a remotest possibility Walsh rides Hurricane Fly....

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WASTE OD SPACE

OF

Pikey I think your mate Davy might have picked plenty when he was riding for Gigginstown ...

Now OFF with ya you gobshyte...

Wonks....shouldn't you be at another one of them anti water charge rally's .... The one in finglas went well yesterday....

WASTE OF SPACE

If both are fit and both have conditions where they could win then you'd choose the fly. Why would you turn down the chance to try and win a record third and record oldest winner to try and win on something that hasnt been given a race yet and probably wont even try to win 3 of anything? Its not sentimentality its sport.

What i think constitutes conditions where the fly could win is probably different to most, i just think he needs ground unlike last year and more like the previous 4/5 years. Cleeve hill is a good substitute for softened ground but he hasnt got the pace now to win on last years ground where he got round 5 seconds faster than he ever has before but the front two only really started slowing in the final strides. Only has to be 5 secs slower ground and be in better form than last spring and hes bang back in there imo.

Ruby might agree with most though that he can only win on proper soft. Ive never really heard him say that though.