naas

Shock horror I agree with Tony's first pick. Morris horse is 2m4f horse and the jockey riding Mullins horse makes that a no go!

Shock horror I agree with Tony's first pick. Morris horse is 2m4f horse and the jockey riding Mullins horse makes that a no go!

3 That take my fancy tomorrow ..Glens Melody to beat K/Rock , Glens is a smashing mare and sure to have come on for her recent run ....
Kitten Rock has done nothing wrong so far , but is up against a real classy type on her day .....
Lots  Of  Memories ,this fellow won really well at Navan , last day at Leopardstown was a huge ask ,he was beaten by 2 top class horses in one of the best novices we will see all year .....
Oscar  Fiain is one I have been keeping my eye on this while back , his last run at Fairyhouse was full of promise , he looks sure to be involved in the finish...
Good Luck all punters ....

It is a nice card at Naas tomorrow and the nap of the day has to be Riviera Sun. He finished 7th of 12 in the Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown in April. 10 winners have come out of that bumper and the 11th runner was second beaten a short head. Riviera Sun ran really well at Leopardstown at Xmas,finishing 5th beaten 5 lengts in a very hot maiden hurdle. This race is a lot handier and he will be hard to beat.
Moreece E/W @7/1  fell 2 out (beaten favourite)  when travelling well at this venue two weeks ago. He is carrying a feather weight tomorrow and has a 7lb claimer on board and I expect him to be in the shake up.

Fascinating duel between Glens Melody and Kitten Rock and much though I admire Glens Melody I've been very impressed (like Tony) with Kitten Rock this season and showed no signs of stopping over shorter trips,price a major put off though for the small man.

I took 4/5 for kittens rock, but im surprised hes shorter as the mullins mare on rateings is bang there..i thought it would be 5/4 -7/4!

You,re "big girl" Bitofapuzzle will make a bold bid today Tony,will she hold on is the question.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Very strange comment Tony57 (regardless of result),surely you take a price because you're surprised it's not shorter?

Why would you take 4/5 on what you think is a 5/4 shot?

Fine ride by Walsh to get up the inside turning in,thought Glens could well have won only for the last.

if the mullins mare had not made the mistake it would of been close...as I thought the betting should of been..but I think the winner would of just held her!

dj, not strange at all..i fancied the winner, just thought he would of been bigger..so I took 4/5 in case he went shorter..lucky I did..i just disagreed with the market?

pa, you know I love her..im balls deep on her..i just hope her goes from the front..3m should suit her..the fav will put it up to her tho..

Sorry Tony but that's complete nonsense,the whole basis of betting is to take a price that you think underestimates that selections true chance of winning.

You compiled the odds for the race at 5/4 and 7/4 but yet backed the fav at 5/4,complete gibberish.

correction should read  = backed the fav at 4/5

disagree dj, with respect, I fancied the horse..and what I said was right on the result was I not right that the betting should of had them closer?..but I took a view 4/5 was worth it as I thought it would win..i had £110@4/5..not the end of the world..if it had been any shorter I would of left it..but as I told you..the market is a opinion dj..not god..its my opinion and choice wether 4/5 is worth the risk...it was..

dj, you have never backed a horse you feel should be bigger?

djguess thought at fishers cross should of been a 1/5 shot when a 2/7 shot,drifted to 8/13 the guess tops up his bet and the rest is history tony....back to the 24hr topaz in abbeyleix it was for him

tony57
17 Jan 15 13:43
Joined:  13 Oct 10 | Topic/replies: 4,022 | Blogger: tony57's blog
dj, you have never backed a horse you feel should be bigger?


no that's plain wrong - i know you don't agree but if you are a good enough judge to calculate the probability of a horse winning at 5/4 (44.44% chance) then you should not be taking 4/5 (55.56% chance)

i know that won't go down well with most on here but it is correct

WD on the winner Tony 57 (my initial reply was after the race) but your logic is nonsense and it's unfortunate that you can't grasp the most basic concept of betting,best of luck.

rightok...

gambling 101A: EPIC FAIL

Rule the world to big to let go at 13/8

get in you beauty...puzzle me girl....wooooooo

Up ou dat Tony, held on,some girl

wd with bitofapuzzle, tony, great race

who said I only back favs..or 2nd favs...

Well done tony

how dare you put up a selection at 11/2 tony and for it to return at 3s.....how dare you....

thank you..just a change of luck tbh..puzzle is class..but its just my day atm..

well done BWS

Some logic with tony backing Kittens Rock

yes fair point oz..don't forget bigwilly went with warrior,...chelts..im not going into again ive said it..up to you ..opinions are what its all about..i was right regarding the race..it was a lot closer than the betting thought..but in the end I was also right..as I took 4/5..it won @shorter..

Fair enough tony,you're in flying form,whats next?

WELL DUN TONY 


GARDE LE VICTOIRE 225 ASCOT

GREEN FLAG  315 HDOC

RIVEIRA SUN  NAAS

no more chelts..im out till tomorrow..after abad few days..im happy to get some back..

Jesus that Carraig Mor is a seriously frustrating racehorse, talent to burn but they can't keep him right.

Wd with the winners posted here.

On another note just how pathetic is David Casey now?

Somersby looks a decent bet at 5s without SS.

305  THINK MCMANUS WIN THIS HAS MARK WALSH PICKED RIGHT ONE AGAIN ?


OUTSIDER SIR ECTOR IS IN LAST CHANCE SALOON

sprinter looked like he needed that ..to me..looked all over ..but tired horse imo but fair play to the winner..but maybe that's him now

Needed it but nowhere near the horse he was. Nicholls is a better trainer to keep em' on top than Henderson.

looking forward to this bumper whispers about the mullins horse ..hope hes as good as they think?...

Nothing wrong with the horse, but the ride was dreadful

I agree koi, but winner did look the best tbf..the 2nd is a fair size and im sure needs more time?

Both big horses Tony , poor ride by Patrick , got boxed in to many times going round inner ,should have won , Patrick seems to get the pace wrong more often at Naas than any other track...

Another over rated mullins bumper horse,i noticed ruby made it his charity bet on the ML.THe man who gets paid by paddy poor.

do you think he should of won mate?..seemed to me david had his measure?

Elliots is twice the horse,Won as easy as he liked.

I'll be called an afterimer but backed the winner on here @ 4.3 for £100 , so kept my eye on Patrick all the way round as I saw him as the only danger ,was delighted to see him stick to the inside , rider of the winner watched him the whole way and stayed on his outside ,Patrick was looking for room most of the straight ,got out a little later than he would have liked and looked as if he might steal it , the 7lb was the difference and farplay to the young lad he rode a cool race...

I wouldn't say hes over rated chealts..just think he abig baby green and needs time

Wonks and the gobshee supply another half a dozen losers between them.....although wonks did put up the bumper winner.....admittedly an hour after the race......
The best horse won the bumper.....that was crystal clear.....

Tombstone today was v impressive (watch the reply after they pull up to see PWM's first reaction !)

To be fair to Tony I think his earlier post was expressing surprise at how the bookmakers had the race priced.I think he was merely expressing that he thought 5/4 would be available.

To my mind he never implied that he thought KR was a 5/4 shot in his head.

I'd say you filled your boots today Pikey , the Dodgy one did you another favour I see , you must be milking it ..Snapper now in toe as well I see , the unholy trinity , you Snap and the Dodge ...Punters have no chance...

Tolmi,

Why then would he ask,

dj, you have never backed a horse you feel should be bigger?

From his posts on here I think Tony is a punter who backs his fancies unless they are substantially shorter than he anticipated.I don't think he does his own book but instead has a price in his head that he thinks his selection will be and what he means by that statement is asking you did you ever back a horse at 6/1 that you thought might be 8/1 when the race was priced up.
He is not asking you did you ever back a horse at 6/1 that you had at 8/1  in your own tissue.

wellsaid tolmi..thankyou..(you know me better than me...) amazing

You seem to have a better perception of his thought process than he does himself.

Whether one formulates an actual tissue or not,you can not excuse a thought process that consists of.

"i thought it would be 5/4 -7/4!" I then backed it at 4/5 but I was right because it turned out to be shorter and it won.

hang on dj,..so in your mind cos I though the winner would be bigger..i should have left it and let it run..even tho I was sure it was a good thing?

The pedantic robotic DJ876 has decided to pick on Tony because he is a gambler.

DJ876 is a lock in merchant,cowardly gambling but despite his timidity he is still losing.
He has all these rules that make him the Harrington of the forum.

He has no feel for gambling,no real love of gambling and certainly gets no joy from gambling.

Tony,

It's desperate that you would cling on to someone else conveying what he believes you were thinking when you didn't dispute it at the time.

Why did you ask me "dj, you have never backed a horse you feel should be bigger?" Please explain that question

Yes if you believe the price was shorter than your perception of the probability you should have had no bet.

Your last question proves that you have no concept of probability versus actual price despite an escape exit being created for you

in my humble opinion dj your not being real,..e.g.many a time ive fancied a horse and though it would be x price yet its shorter..and ive backed it..it depends as tolmi said better than I could ..on how short it goes..4/5 was my limit with kitten....I have limits..i don't back shorter than 4/5 as a rule,..but it depends on the race..but 9/10 I don't..but according to your thinking..if I don't think the horse is the right price..walk away?.

" no concept of probability versus actual price "

That verbiage is straight out of some betting manual and why Tony should ignore this trouble maker.

ive explained what I thought..you give no credence to me being right about the tissue as the way I thought the race should be priced up was the correct one?..the market was wrong to have the mullins horse the price it was..it depends on the race..there is no set pattern to my punting..if I see a race and one I fancy then I,ll have a look and decide to put..your view to not back the horse cos its a couple of points shorter than I BELIEVE IT SHOULD BE is YOUR OPINION..like the market dj..its a opinion..does not mean its correct.

I never tried to justify his thought process merely to explain it.

I think punters have different ways of approaching a bet.Tony would be of the more old fashioned style.Others think value is paramount (which it is) but unfortunately they think they get value when they back a horse at greater than their own tissue price.However if their own tissue pricing is flawed then the bet may not be value at all.I have seen some excellent posters on here make rash statements along the lines of this is a certainty and you can back it at 1/2 or he is evens but should be 2/5.Unless you have information that is not generally available then it is extremely rare for the market to be that far out.
Any punter who thinks he is good at spotting value should test himself against the betfair SP over a decent sample size of races.If he can do this regularly and also understand the best type of races to bet in as well as having a staking plan he is well on the way to profitability.
Learning to cope with when things go against you is the other key.

No Tony because you were sure it was a good thing,you should drive on regardless of price.

It's deceptive of you Tony to now state that you didn't think he should have been a bigger price but backed it regardless after asking me "dj, you have never backed a horse you feel should be bigger".

Your opening post Tony gives two selections both won,maybe you should just concede the point to DJ876 to humour him safe in the knowledge he put up no winner..

great post tolmi.

I don't understand dj, were did I say he shouldn't of been a bigger price?

We seem to have a translation problem Tony as you're talking absolute gibberish to me and probably me to you.

WD on the winners Tony.

no problem...its all about opinions dj, I can agree to disagree without trying to insult..we all have different opinions..

Excellent post indeed by Tomi who wants to educate and discuss rather than just criticise and ridicule like dj.

I very interested in your use of the word flawed when discussing tissue prices. Would it not be more of a difference of opinion that there may be a large difference in two people's tissue prices rather than one being right and one being wrong.

Tolmi explains the most basic concept of betting between the difference between a punters perception of probability and the actual price.

Two posters respond as if this is a novel thought,sums up the standard of the forum.

Boneo chirps in with his repetitive repertoire followed by Borneo Junior who needs an explanation for a flawed tissue.Staggering

By flawed I meant a person who gets their pricing wrong more often than right.

It is in order to test your competence in this regard than I suggest testing yourself against the betfar SP.

There was a little bit more to my post than explaining a basic concept of betting but take what you wish from it.
I'm beginning to feel like its an evening for a few pints!

for what its worth there was 1 lb between the horses on ratings/so therefore tony is right,5/4 was prob the true chance of the fav winning on ratings.but the vibe was that it would win with connections etc.so he went in at 4/5...very logical thing to do.he fancied it..end of..glens melody is a good horse but not a great one.ejog was talking bout champion hurd entry before the race..so 4/5 was well worth taking..

DJ876 all your posts are negative,you are scouring posts looking for some typo or error then you descend.

Unlike you tony, I don't feel the need to constantly portray myself as some kind of smart arsed know it all. I'm happy to admit I'm a novice when it comes to gambling and am learning all the time.

Thanks for the thoughts tolmi, very interesting posts.

Dj we are not all "geniuses",most are here as they follow racing and have a punt,wouldn,t it be a nice way of doing things explaining what you mean rather than slating the standard of the forum? Did try and have a go at pricing up  races before,there was little interest in it and it was sabotaged by the usual suspects. It is such an important weapon to get fairly right most of the time and ought to be done by all.

That prvious post should read dj rather than tony

thanks newapproach I was in shock for a moment..

Long day tony,

Well done with the winners tony 4/5 grand price no need to explain yourself  had no bet in the race myself but was cheering on glens  Any price is a good price so long as it wins just gona watch that race now cudnt bring myself to back GM with jockey on board think it proved a wise decision for a change

Have to say here I don't see dj using any foul or vulgar language. In fact I see him being extremely patient in re-explaining what are very basic and well established principles.  As ever theoretically he is spot  on.   Rather than being negative, I think he is making constructive points.

The main problem with this forum is that even when a man is bang on, Tribalism will always triupmh over Truth.

No neutrals will bother sticking up for Dj as they will just get it back in the neck (as I will now....) from forumites who stick up for each other no matter what.

It augurs poorly for anyone willing to educate or for those wishing to learn.  It starts to resemble Irish politics; the loudest gobsh1tes with no shame are dominating whilst intelligent contributors are increasingly tunred off.

HAve a good evening, Gents.

100% spot on ^^^

with respect oz..you don't know what your talking about, ive been around so called pros in the game. journalists..other owners etc..no one has a set rule on how they bet or what they think is value..i know a big punter..that just backs what he thinks are great favs?..most would say he can't make it pay?..but he does..it different ..what one thinks is value..is not someone elses..

No neutrals will bother sticking up for Dj as they will just get it back in the neck (as I will now....) from forumites who stick up for each other no matter what.

The above section of your post is the only part based on any bit of fact. It is never a good thing for alternative opinion to be stifled  on the basis of fear or intimidation.

This is what happened John Waters and the other consenting voices when they voiced their opposition to gay marriage. Waters and the iona institute were labelled homophobes by a drag queen on national tv while homosexuals who disagreed with gay marriage were labelled self hating.

But because this example doesn't suit your liberal agenda, no doubt you'll find some obscure excuse to say thay tey deserved to be ostracised like this while your mate dj is the victim.

I see Tubbyright makes a apperence , where were you last night when poor OLD Ozy was getting it in the rear end , sorry dont answer that  , he was probaly enjoying it ..Gang of clowns the lot of ye ..At the end of the day Tony put up his thoughts on a race , backed his opinion and collected his cash...Simple...

wonks a yankee doodle dandy , yankee racing is his game !

Tubbyright , your GAME seems to be licking Ozys ARSE ....

I'm sure the grandkids are proud of your behaviour on here , you are one very very sad individual.

Tubby , your master showed himself in his true colours last night , living out his sexual fantasies  on here for all to see , pity a respectable man like YOURSELF didn't take him to task about it , then your statement above might have some meaning ...hypocrisy seems to be the name of your game ..Night now...

jesus man , have a look at what you are posting about ffs , pathetic in the extreme .

Thought it would have been mighty close without the peck for Glens Melody but considering Kitten Rock was giving it 5lbs it was a fine performance against a much more experienced and battle hardened opponent.

I agree puchestown. Hard to know how much ground the mistake cost her but I thought she was going to win going into the hurdle. She didn't close the winner much after the mistake but there's no doubt it would have been close, my gut says she would have won.