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06 Jan 15
14:11
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Date Joined:
27 Sep 11
A new year, and hopefully a more profitable one, have been looking forward to this since seeing the list of runners last week.
Towards the head of the market we have a Bubba Watson who has never been one to trust at short odds, and though this is a long track which he could still in theory over power, he wont be in love with the premium that is placed on putting on these big greens. Expect quite a few 3 putts from him.
Matt Kuchar is someone I am keen to field against at the moment. Though he has a consistently good record here, he seems to have lost the winning habit, and also a bit of form of late.
Though Zach Johnson won here last year, I just don't think the course really suits, and he will need another amazing week with the flat stick to defend successfully.
My idea of the winner, by some distance, is Jason Day. Riddled with injuries during 2014, he now seems fully fit and raring to go. A respectable debut here in 2009 will stand him in good stead, and after last years travails he will want to get motoring as quick as possible in the new campaign. Successful alongside Cameron Tringale in the Shark Shootout before Christmas, I fancy he will be a lot closer to fever pitch than a lot of his opponents.
None of the real big names of the game in here add to confidence on a player who has started the last couple of years very well, finishing second in his first event in 2014 at The Farmers Insurance mot long before proving successful in the Accenture Matchplay. He had a pretty similar start to 2013. He ended the 2014 season in fine nick, in some of the hottest fields of the year, and thought the early 9-1 didn't last long(someone saw fit to lay him at 12.5 on here!!), the current 15-2/8-1 is still an excellent bet. Its a field determined by what happened the previous year, but it does look sub standard to me, and I am very confident of the Australian getting the year off to the best possible start.
I had not intended backing Patrick Reed, as I had not expected him to be anywhere near 25-1. Quite how he is a bigger price than Walker/Moore/Mahan/Kirk baffles me. He too has been a hot starter to the year before, especially last year. Full of confidence, and well able to win, he has shown he can produce the birdie barrage which will be needed to be victorious this week.
Geoff Ogilvy is a two time winner here, albeit some time ago. The reason he hasn't won here since...well he hasn't qualified to play it! He will surely relish the return. He seems a much happier golfer this last 12 months, and having competed in the Aussie swing until late in the year, he will strip fitter than most. Can be very hot with the putter, and is on record as saying how this course suits and reminds him of home. At 50-1, he is worth including.
Last man in this week is Kevin Streelman. I believe this year could be a big one for this much improved performer. His mindset is now that of a winner, he believes he has what it takes to topple the best. Third here on debut last year, he has the all round game required for here, and the ability to bang home putt after putt. 33-1 is bigger than I expected.
Camillo Villegas is 11-10 for Top South American and this rates a cracking bet. Just Angel Cabrera to beat, I cannot understand why Villegas is not a short priced favourite. Cabrera pulled out of his home event just before Christmas with injury, and has never been a quick starter to the calendar year. Villegas is slightly shorter in the outright market, and is much less likely to totally blow out than Cabrera. PP also go evens.
4pts e.w Json Day 8-1
1.2pt e.w Patrick Reed 25-1
.9pt e.w Kevin Streelman 33-1
.6pt e.w Geoff Ogilvy 50-1
10pts Camilo Villegas 11-10 Top S. American
For those that like a lump at short odds, Kevin Streelman at 1-2 for Top 20 is also a great bet. Should be more like 2-9/1-5. Only SJ pricing it up.
GL all.
Towards the head of the market we have a Bubba Watson who has never been one to trust at short odds, and though this is a long track which he could still in theory over power, he wont be in love with the premium that is placed on putting on these big greens. Expect quite a few 3 putts from him.
Matt Kuchar is someone I am keen to field against at the moment. Though he has a consistently good record here, he seems to have lost the winning habit, and also a bit of form of late.
Though Zach Johnson won here last year, I just don't think the course really suits, and he will need another amazing week with the flat stick to defend successfully.
My idea of the winner, by some distance, is Jason Day. Riddled with injuries during 2014, he now seems fully fit and raring to go. A respectable debut here in 2009 will stand him in good stead, and after last years travails he will want to get motoring as quick as possible in the new campaign. Successful alongside Cameron Tringale in the Shark Shootout before Christmas, I fancy he will be a lot closer to fever pitch than a lot of his opponents.
None of the real big names of the game in here add to confidence on a player who has started the last couple of years very well, finishing second in his first event in 2014 at The Farmers Insurance mot long before proving successful in the Accenture Matchplay. He had a pretty similar start to 2013. He ended the 2014 season in fine nick, in some of the hottest fields of the year, and thought the early 9-1 didn't last long(someone saw fit to lay him at 12.5 on here!!), the current 15-2/8-1 is still an excellent bet. Its a field determined by what happened the previous year, but it does look sub standard to me, and I am very confident of the Australian getting the year off to the best possible start.
I had not intended backing Patrick Reed, as I had not expected him to be anywhere near 25-1. Quite how he is a bigger price than Walker/Moore/Mahan/Kirk baffles me. He too has been a hot starter to the year before, especially last year. Full of confidence, and well able to win, he has shown he can produce the birdie barrage which will be needed to be victorious this week.
Geoff Ogilvy is a two time winner here, albeit some time ago. The reason he hasn't won here since...well he hasn't qualified to play it! He will surely relish the return. He seems a much happier golfer this last 12 months, and having competed in the Aussie swing until late in the year, he will strip fitter than most. Can be very hot with the putter, and is on record as saying how this course suits and reminds him of home. At 50-1, he is worth including.
Last man in this week is Kevin Streelman. I believe this year could be a big one for this much improved performer. His mindset is now that of a winner, he believes he has what it takes to topple the best. Third here on debut last year, he has the all round game required for here, and the ability to bang home putt after putt. 33-1 is bigger than I expected.
Camillo Villegas is 11-10 for Top South American and this rates a cracking bet. Just Angel Cabrera to beat, I cannot understand why Villegas is not a short priced favourite. Cabrera pulled out of his home event just before Christmas with injury, and has never been a quick starter to the calendar year. Villegas is slightly shorter in the outright market, and is much less likely to totally blow out than Cabrera. PP also go evens.
4pts e.w Json Day 8-1
1.2pt e.w Patrick Reed 25-1
.9pt e.w Kevin Streelman 33-1
.6pt e.w Geoff Ogilvy 50-1
10pts Camilo Villegas 11-10 Top S. American
For those that like a lump at short odds, Kevin Streelman at 1-2 for Top 20 is also a great bet. Should be more like 2-9/1-5. Only SJ pricing it up.
GL all.
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I've backed 3 in this, gone against you with a few callit.
Matt Kuchar 9/1
We know Kuch finds it hard to win but if he is going to win anywhere in the year, it could well be here. 4 top 10 finishes in his last 4 appearances, he is sure to go close again.
Chris Kirk 16/1
Has only played this event twice and finished T16 and T7. Has a strong short game which suits here.
Scott Stallings 80/1
For a big price rag, he has 2 decent finishes here in T13 and T22. Often reserves his best form for the beginning of the season, he could go well @ big odds.
Best of luck lads.
Matt Kuchar 9/1
We know Kuch finds it hard to win but if he is going to win anywhere in the year, it could well be here. 4 top 10 finishes in his last 4 appearances, he is sure to go close again.
Chris Kirk 16/1
Has only played this event twice and finished T16 and T7. Has a strong short game which suits here.
Scott Stallings 80/1
For a big price rag, he has 2 decent finishes here in T13 and T22. Often reserves his best form for the beginning of the season, he could go well @ big odds.
Best of luck lads.
I've backed 3 in this, gone against you with a few callit.
Matt Kuchar 9/1
We know Kuch finds it hard to win but if he is going to win anywhere in the year, it could well be here. 4 top 10 finishes in his last 4 appearances, he is sure to go close again.
Chris Kirk 16/1
Has only played this event twice and finished T16 and T7. Has a strong short game which suits here.
Scott Stallings 80/1
For a big price rag, he has 2 decent finishes here in T13 and T22. Often reserves his best form for the beginning of the season, he could go well @ big odds.
Best of luck lads.
Matt Kuchar 9/1
We know Kuch finds it hard to win but if he is going to win anywhere in the year, it could well be here. 4 top 10 finishes in his last 4 appearances, he is sure to go close again.
Chris Kirk 16/1
Has only played this event twice and finished T16 and T7. Has a strong short game which suits here.
Scott Stallings 80/1
For a big price rag, he has 2 decent finishes here in T13 and T22. Often reserves his best form for the beginning of the season, he could go well @ big odds.
Best of luck lads.
Great write up as always call,hopefully its a good years punting in the golf, i'll start of in America were i've backing two against the field,ive backed Day e/w 8/1 an Reed e/w 20/1,nothing more than I can say about theses two picks that call hasn't said already,
Now onto Europe were we have the South African open,i couldn't believe Lads had priced up Grace at 12/1,taught to myself that this was a smashing e/w bet after his last event were he won in a canter by 6 shots,alot of this new confidence has been down to the reunion with his old caddy,by the time I got to a Ladbrokes shop they had him cut to 10/1
,
Selections,
Jason Day 8/1 e/w,
Patrick Reed 20/1 e/w
Europe,
Brendan Grace 10/1 e/w,
Also done a e/w double Grace 10/1-and Day 8/1,
Best of luck this week lads
Now onto Europe were we have the South African open,i couldn't believe Lads had priced up Grace at 12/1,taught to myself that this was a smashing e/w bet after his last event were he won in a canter by 6 shots,alot of this new confidence has been down to the reunion with his old caddy,by the time I got to a Ladbrokes shop they had him cut to 10/1
,Selections,
Jason Day 8/1 e/w,
Patrick Reed 20/1 e/w
Europe,
Brendan Grace 10/1 e/w,
Also done a e/w double Grace 10/1-and Day 8/1,
Best of luck this week lads
I backed J Day at 9.8 and Steelman at 33/1 Callit,the value on Reed and Ogivy is gone[my own fault saw your thread to late] TY as ever for your .thread
In these dark and cold days lads its worth takeing a look at the course . http://www.golfatkapalua.com/index.php
New approach The 13th and 22nd place finishes of Stallings are misleading as its only roughly a thirty runner event and he has been beaten by 13 shots and 18 shots on his two visits here.
Any man who has only 174Topic/replies: in 11years is worth listening to, .. M.S. i had a look at Murphys Stoke on YOU TUBE a few Months back and even after all these years it still worth a look,pity about Scottish trainer named Antony Collins who f cuk up big time.
True enough murphy. T13 still is respectable enough in 2013.
On TV later.....
| 19:05 | Zach Johnson (4/7) | Nick Taylor (21/10) |
| 19:15 | Matt Kuchar (10/11) | Chris Kirk (13/10) |
| 19:25 | Jimmy Walker (5/6) | John Senden (6/4) |
| 19:35 | Ben Martin (6/4) | Patrick Reed (4/5) |
| 19:45 | Scott Stallings (11/8) | Robert Streb (10/11) |
| 19:55 | Russell Henley (20/19) | Sang-Moon Bae (6/5) |
PLAYOFF IN SA.....Charl Collapse Schwartzel v Andy Sullivan
SULLIVAN, Andy -11 18 -5 66 70 74 67
SCHWARTZEL, Charl -11 18 +2 68 69 66 74
SCHWARTZEL, Charl -11 18 +2 68 69 66 74
Hi to all in Nuneaton GC (Andy's club)........LETS GET THE PUTT !!!
Patrick Reed looks a standout 2 ball bet tonight at 10-11. He putted offensively on Friday, but still finds himself only a shot out of the lead. Though I am a Brendon Todd fan, he may find it hard to back up yesterdays excellent showing, and there should be more of a discrepancy in the market.
5pts Reed 2 ball 10-11
5pts Reed 2 ball 10-11
WTF Charl what the actual ****.
What a disaster of a start to 2015.
What a disaster of a start to 2015.
DAY 3 (Monday Finish)
| 20:25 | Matt Jones (6/4) | Billy Horschel (10/11) |
| 20:35 | Seung-Yul Noh (10/11) | Camilo Villegas (13/10) |
| 20:45 | Geoff Ogilvy (6/4) | Ryan Moore (10/11) |
| 20:55 | JB Holmes (10/11) | Ben Crane (13/10) |
| 21:05 | Ben Martin (20/19) | Brian Harman (15/13) |
| 21:15 | Bubba Watson (8/11) | John Senden (13/8) |
| 21:25 | Matt Kuchar (11/10) | Jason Day (20/19) |
| 21:35 | Robert Streb (5/6) | Scott Stallings (11/8) |
| 21:45 | Brendon Todd (6/4) | Patrick Reed (10/11) |
| 21:55 | Hideki Matsuyama (5/6) | Charley Hoffman (6/4) |
| 22:05 | Russell Henley (11/10) | Sang-Moon Bae (11/10) |
| 22:15 | Zach Johnson (11/10) | Jimmy Walker (11/10) |
Jimmy Walker 5
Zach Johnson 5
Hideki Matsuyama 9
Patrick Reed 9
Russell Henley 10
Sang-Moon Bae 10
ANYONE of these win it ?
Zach Johnson 5
Hideki Matsuyama 9
Patrick Reed 9
Russell Henley 10
Sang-Moon Bae 10
ANYONE of these win it ?
Shame Reed cant putt. If he was having just an average week with the flat stick, he would probably be 3 clear at the top. With a hot putter....
Agree Callit, also a pity about Steelman 2nd rd [73].. its going to be a late night.
Yeah, great rd from Streel today. Hopefully finishes with another bird.
WELL done CALLIT ON THE 2BALL,I stayed up untill 1.15 but the eyes were begining to close so i hit the sack.
Nice one callit, followed you in on the Reed 2 ball bet at 10/11, top man
we was lucky..!! other lad birdied de last to tie,reed had to birdie a 6 footer for our money..he did luckily
Wouldn't say Reed was lucky. Would have been mighty unlucky not to collect.
Glad ye got few bob off it, personally would have been sick sitting up until 2am, only to lose it on the 18th.
Bubba Watson and Zach Johnson look worthy of support tonight. 8-11 available on both, slightly bigger on here, but v little liquidity.
Bubba faces Robert Streb who is usually one to avoid on Sunday. 40th on Tour in total scoring average last year, his round 4 scoring average saw him toil in 129th. Bubba seemed in good spirits in his post round interview last night, and without the pressures of being in final couple of groups I can see him having a decent evening, and accounting for Streb quite easily.
Not much went right for Zach last night, an early 7 threatening to derail his challenge. He hung in there well , and though an unlikely winner now, nearly all of his wins have come when entering the final round just off the pace. Stallings has never impressed under pressure, and Zach should see him off.
6pts Bubba Watson 8-11
5pts Zach Johnson 8-11
3pts Double
Snap.....stick the Pearl Nation winnings on the double.
Glad ye got few bob off it, personally would have been sick sitting up until 2am, only to lose it on the 18th.
Bubba Watson and Zach Johnson look worthy of support tonight. 8-11 available on both, slightly bigger on here, but v little liquidity.
Bubba faces Robert Streb who is usually one to avoid on Sunday. 40th on Tour in total scoring average last year, his round 4 scoring average saw him toil in 129th. Bubba seemed in good spirits in his post round interview last night, and without the pressures of being in final couple of groups I can see him having a decent evening, and accounting for Streb quite easily.
Not much went right for Zach last night, an early 7 threatening to derail his challenge. He hung in there well , and though an unlikely winner now, nearly all of his wins have come when entering the final round just off the pace. Stallings has never impressed under pressure, and Zach should see him off.
6pts Bubba Watson 8-11
5pts Zach Johnson 8-11
3pts Double
Snap.....stick the Pearl Nation winnings on the double.
Tnx callit, I will do, diff class on the golfing scene
Double Bogey for Cabrera on the first. Gives Villegas a 6 shot advantage. Very hard to see that being overturned.
Delighted just after watching the hightlights now,went to bed last night thinking Walker had it won,
SAME here Huddys, well done Callit excellent start to the golf season.
Good start to season , callit . Walker managed to look very pedestrian over the last 9 holes , Reed was fired up after holing out from 80 yards .
Reeds career record is beginning to stack up quite well , wonder how good he might turn out particularly if he shed a few pounds ?
Reeds career record is beginning to stack up quite well , wonder how good he might turn out particularly if he shed a few pounds ?
Reed a player I've followed along time kelly,it's a hard question to answer about his weight,dosent seem to be bothering him too much at the minute,if I was him I wouldn't be too bothered trying to lose a few pound,
bit of a sweat but got my €50 back on Jason Day from Boils for finishing tied 3rd.
Its a good offer.
Had €100 on Schwartzel @10's and didn't lay off so it was more bad than good.
Its a good offer.
Had €100 on Schwartzel @10's and didn't lay off so it was more bad than good.
About Reeds weight, I be more worried for the wife than Reed. If he ever decides he wants to go on top......!!
I decided to back Fitzpatrick and Drysdale as savers as I had no funds in my BF account.
Pure laziness on my account.
Live and learn.
Pure laziness on my account.
Live and learn.
I would prefer that 'aggressive hedging' approach myself Apple. It cost you this time, but at the same time you prob never thought Charl to be a poor price, so laying would prob have been the wrong thing to do. Hopefully it tips in your favour over the season.
I have never been a fan of Charl, or his bottle, but have backed him this week at 40s. V big imo.
I have never been a fan of Charl, or his bottle, but have backed him this week at 40s. V big imo.
Callit ;Patrick Reeds wife was asked how she liked her husband to make love to her ; she replied like a gentleman on his elbows,after last night win she might change the rules.
A bit of an overreaction maybe.
He looked in shock in his interview afterwards.
It could go either way.
He looked in shock in his interview afterwards.
It could go either way.
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