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21 Oct 14
20:13
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Date Joined:
27 Sep 11
A couple more pretty average events this week, though I suppose as European Tour events go these days, the Perth International has attracted a couple of bigger names.
Firstly to the States, where it seemed pretty hard to identify a bit of value. I was loathe to back people like Matt Kuchar, Bill Haas, Webb Simpson, Chris Kirk etc at under 20-1. But after scouring the field, the prices available on at least a couple of those started to look attractive.
Webb Simpson should have won last week, but he putted atrociously for the majority of the event. He was 25-1 then, and only an opening 18s here. But imo the 25s was too big last week, and he has now proved his tee to green game at least is in tip top shape. He has a very consistent record around here, and this will be much less of a putting competition than last week was. Throw in the fact that this looks a worse field than last week, and he starts to have the look of not only a good price, but a very likely winner.
Matt Kuchar, and to a lesser extent Bill Haas where easier to avoid. Kuchar just doesn't seem to be close enough to his best at the moment to be supporting at short odds, and I just couldn't bring myself to entertain Haas at under 20-1
Chris Kirk arrives as defending champion, an arguably lucky one, and that brings its own pressures. But along with Billy Horschel, he was the most in form man on the Tour for the last few weeks of the recently ended season. Its possible he has had some down time having missed out on the RC, but I think that's only a small risk. Being not only defending champ, but also a local boy, he will be very keen to be at his best this week, and show the crowd what he can do.
Charles Howell is not one to trust in a finish, but at 50-1 at a venue where he has shown plenty of form, in a field of has beens or wont be's, he is definitely worth a wager. He comes here with the benefit of a couple of pipe openers, showing an improvement from the Frys.com to post a very respectable finish two days ago, after a slow start. I was planning on a decent top 20 bet on him if I could get 5-2 on him. He did go 5-2 this morning, but I was asleep!! I still believe the 2-1 to be worth backing, but just had less on him.
Scott Brown doesn't scream massive value at 45-1, but he is very much in form, handled himself well last weekend, and boasts a 4th place finish from last year when he wasn't in a similar vein of form. He should be thereabouts on Sunday evening.
Michael Thompson is very inconsistent, and doesn't show on many leaderboards. But he loves a thinking mans golf course, and this is exactly that. He can plot his way around tricky venues better than most, and has shown he can get it done when presented with the opportunity. Two top tens in his two visits here cement that ethos.
David Lingmerth is another who though well capable with the putter, seems to prefer a more challenging track than last weeks fare. Take out last weeks performance, and I feel he would have been one of the more fancied runners here. He hasn't played here before, an obvious disadvantage, but I expect him to take to it, and quotes of 125-1 are too big on a player who looks ready, and able, to win.
Another player who I feel will notch a win this year is Brendon Todd. He already has the monkey off his back, and to my eye looks to have a very solid future. He has a few weeks break to overcome, but he will view this event as a real opportunity with none of the real big names lining up. Improved for his first visit here, he could now be ready to challenge for the winners cheque.
Heath Slocum was another I considered, but left him out.
1.6pt e.w Webb Simpson 18-1
1.5pt e.w Chris Kirk 20-1
.75pt e.w Brendon Todd 40-1
.7pt e.w Scott Brown 45-1
.6pt e.w Charles Howell 50-1
.4pt e.w Michael Thompson 85-1
.3pt e.w David Lingmerth 125-1
5pts Charles Howell Top 20 2-1
Didn't really do huge study of the Perth event, but one player who I would expect to be well up for it, is Geoff Ogilvy. He was in the golfing wilderness for a long time until his recent resurgence. He will be keen to keep going in that vein, with a view to getting back into the top tournaments that a player of his class really should be competing in. With the Aussie Swing starting, he will be more up for this than some of the tourists. 25-1 was enough for me to get involved.
1.2pt e.w Geoff Ogilvy 25-1
Running Total...+18.3pts
Firstly to the States, where it seemed pretty hard to identify a bit of value. I was loathe to back people like Matt Kuchar, Bill Haas, Webb Simpson, Chris Kirk etc at under 20-1. But after scouring the field, the prices available on at least a couple of those started to look attractive.
Webb Simpson should have won last week, but he putted atrociously for the majority of the event. He was 25-1 then, and only an opening 18s here. But imo the 25s was too big last week, and he has now proved his tee to green game at least is in tip top shape. He has a very consistent record around here, and this will be much less of a putting competition than last week was. Throw in the fact that this looks a worse field than last week, and he starts to have the look of not only a good price, but a very likely winner.
Matt Kuchar, and to a lesser extent Bill Haas where easier to avoid. Kuchar just doesn't seem to be close enough to his best at the moment to be supporting at short odds, and I just couldn't bring myself to entertain Haas at under 20-1
Chris Kirk arrives as defending champion, an arguably lucky one, and that brings its own pressures. But along with Billy Horschel, he was the most in form man on the Tour for the last few weeks of the recently ended season. Its possible he has had some down time having missed out on the RC, but I think that's only a small risk. Being not only defending champ, but also a local boy, he will be very keen to be at his best this week, and show the crowd what he can do.
Charles Howell is not one to trust in a finish, but at 50-1 at a venue where he has shown plenty of form, in a field of has beens or wont be's, he is definitely worth a wager. He comes here with the benefit of a couple of pipe openers, showing an improvement from the Frys.com to post a very respectable finish two days ago, after a slow start. I was planning on a decent top 20 bet on him if I could get 5-2 on him. He did go 5-2 this morning, but I was asleep!! I still believe the 2-1 to be worth backing, but just had less on him.
Scott Brown doesn't scream massive value at 45-1, but he is very much in form, handled himself well last weekend, and boasts a 4th place finish from last year when he wasn't in a similar vein of form. He should be thereabouts on Sunday evening.
Michael Thompson is very inconsistent, and doesn't show on many leaderboards. But he loves a thinking mans golf course, and this is exactly that. He can plot his way around tricky venues better than most, and has shown he can get it done when presented with the opportunity. Two top tens in his two visits here cement that ethos.
David Lingmerth is another who though well capable with the putter, seems to prefer a more challenging track than last weeks fare. Take out last weeks performance, and I feel he would have been one of the more fancied runners here. He hasn't played here before, an obvious disadvantage, but I expect him to take to it, and quotes of 125-1 are too big on a player who looks ready, and able, to win.
Another player who I feel will notch a win this year is Brendon Todd. He already has the monkey off his back, and to my eye looks to have a very solid future. He has a few weeks break to overcome, but he will view this event as a real opportunity with none of the real big names lining up. Improved for his first visit here, he could now be ready to challenge for the winners cheque.
Heath Slocum was another I considered, but left him out.
1.6pt e.w Webb Simpson 18-1
1.5pt e.w Chris Kirk 20-1
.75pt e.w Brendon Todd 40-1
.7pt e.w Scott Brown 45-1
.6pt e.w Charles Howell 50-1
.4pt e.w Michael Thompson 85-1
.3pt e.w David Lingmerth 125-1
5pts Charles Howell Top 20 2-1
Didn't really do huge study of the Perth event, but one player who I would expect to be well up for it, is Geoff Ogilvy. He was in the golfing wilderness for a long time until his recent resurgence. He will be keen to keep going in that vein, with a view to getting back into the top tournaments that a player of his class really should be competing in. With the Aussie Swing starting, he will be more up for this than some of the tourists. 25-1 was enough for me to get involved.
1.2pt e.w Geoff Ogilvy 25-1
Running Total...+18.3pts
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I was going to back Webb again this week but after last week poor putting I decided not too,
After reading what you have said about Kuch my pre tournament confidence in him after dipping a little ,I just feel his class might shine through in such a poor field,and am quiet happy to take the 14/1 e/w on him,
Now on to Perth were im also on Ogilvy e/w at 22/1,as Call has said a player who has beginning to show abit of form recently,
Selections
Matt Kuchar 14/1 e/w.
G Ogilvy 22/1 e/w,
And a e/w double aswell,best of luck this week lads,God I know I could do with a win in the golf,
After reading what you have said about Kuch my pre tournament confidence in him after dipping a little ,I just feel his class might shine through in such a poor field,and am quiet happy to take the 14/1 e/w on him,
Now on to Perth were im also on Ogilvy e/w at 22/1,as Call has said a player who has beginning to show abit of form recently,
Selections
Matt Kuchar 14/1 e/w.
G Ogilvy 22/1 e/w,
And a e/w double aswell,best of luck this week lads,God I know I could do with a win in the golf,
Best bet this week imo, is David Lingmerth to be Top Swede. His only opponent is Carl Petersson, and the 13-8 available with Coral is quite simply wrong.
Petersson may be 90 in the outright market, and Lingmerth 140, and though these odds suggest the match market should be much closer to parity, I believe even that wouldn't be right. I would certainly have Lingmerth favourite. CP barely raised a gallop at a track that suited him much better last week. DL missed the cut, but has been dismissed too easily because of that.
He was in excellent form prior to that excusable flop, and I expect him to resume his fine play this week. Top 45 will probably be enough, indeed making the cut may bring a payout. Cracking bet.
8pts David Lingmerth Top Swede 13-8
Petersson may be 90 in the outright market, and Lingmerth 140, and though these odds suggest the match market should be much closer to parity, I believe even that wouldn't be right. I would certainly have Lingmerth favourite. CP barely raised a gallop at a track that suited him much better last week. DL missed the cut, but has been dismissed too easily because of that.
He was in excellent form prior to that excusable flop, and I expect him to resume his fine play this week. Top 45 will probably be enough, indeed making the cut may bring a payout. Cracking bet.
8pts David Lingmerth Top Swede 13-8
I did lingmerth 170/1 todd 44/1 and thompson 85/1 hopeing one of them will do the Business for us Callit.TY
i just saw that PA, i laid thompson at 23/1 and todd at 16.5 great start.
I will let the bets run until the final rd PA, i have free bets on todd, and thompson now.
I don't like putting too many eggs in the one basket, but equally I'm not a fan of letting a cracking bet go unbacked.
David Lingmerth is 11-10 in PP to win tonights 3 ball, them being the only firm to price it up. Its a massive price. He plays two players that will be delighted just to be teeing it up. The course is playing pretty tough, which should accentuate the class bias, and I believe he would win this 3 ball about 8 out of 10 times.
Makes 11-10 look very big indeed.
6pts Lingmerth 3 ball 11-10
David Lingmerth is 11-10 in PP to win tonights 3 ball, them being the only firm to price it up. Its a massive price. He plays two players that will be delighted just to be teeing it up. The course is playing pretty tough, which should accentuate the class bias, and I believe he would win this 3 ball about 8 out of 10 times.
Makes 11-10 look very big indeed.
6pts Lingmerth 3 ball 11-10
I dont back 3 ball CAllit but i can see where your coming from with this bet, good luck
Followed you in Call on the 3 ball bet,after a poor round by Geoff in Perth decided to reload and backed Romford at 22/1,and done a small double with Kuch,
Lingmerth thankfully done the business, only scare being an out of the blue DB on his back 9. Shame about that, as without it, it would have given him a nice head start on Petersson.
Very good with that 3 ball Callit,he was up against 2 players i never heard of. I'd have a feeling you may try again as the cut from yesterday is very small.
You are on fire these days Callit!
All aboard the even money R2 beano. Same only PP seem to bother pricing this up?
All aboard the even money R2 beano. Same only PP seem to bother pricing this up?
Yeah Pa, surprised they didnt cut him a bit more. I doubt they took any bet on the other two boys in Round One.
I very rarely reload on a winner form Thursday, as firstly the price has usually shorteened when in reality the probablity of winming usually hasn't. The dimensions of the bet channge, in that some players may be protecting scores, others being more cavalier to make cut etc. But in this instance Lingmerth again seems a stand out bet, and I did go in again. He missed quite a few makeable birdies last night, along with the DB, and I feel his round should be upgraded. Whitsett made 4 birds on the trot, yet only got around in level par.
My opinion that Lingmerth would win 8 out of 10 of these, in this situation, hasnt changed, and therefore the evens still looks a cracking bet.
6pts Lingmerth 3 ball 1-1
I very rarely reload on a winner form Thursday, as firstly the price has usually shorteened when in reality the probablity of winming usually hasn't. The dimensions of the bet channge, in that some players may be protecting scores, others being more cavalier to make cut etc. But in this instance Lingmerth again seems a stand out bet, and I did go in again. He missed quite a few makeable birdies last night, along with the DB, and I feel his round should be upgraded. Whitsett made 4 birds on the trot, yet only got around in level par.
My opinion that Lingmerth would win 8 out of 10 of these, in this situation, hasnt changed, and therefore the evens still looks a cracking bet.
6pts Lingmerth 3 ball 1-1
i laid Lingmerth at 60/1 and it was taken [before his double bogey] so i have all 3 of your tips running for me as free bets, Isee lingmerth 3 ball is out at 2.15 i will try to get on .goodluck
I think im right in saying that Lingmerth won his 3 ball again Callit;great back 9 today, excellent stuff,
You are indeed Frank, won well in the end. Shame they not grouped together again today! Outrights didn't perform great yesterday, especially the later 3.
Hudson Swafford is a cracking 3 ball bet today, 2.55 tee off at 6-4.
Swafford has become a permanent fixture at weekends of late, and has been performing admirably when it comes to dividing up the prize money. Still under rated by the odds compilers, he is much more likely to produce the goods today than either of his opponents. He missed the cut here last year, but has got to grips with the course nicely now, improving from a Thursday 70 to a 67 yesterday. Something similar will be enough.
I wouldn't give Dan Berger much chance at all. I would make Swafford a shade of odds on, and as such is a superb price.
5pts Hudson Swafford 3 ball 6-4.
Hudson Swafford is a cracking 3 ball bet today, 2.55 tee off at 6-4.
Swafford has become a permanent fixture at weekends of late, and has been performing admirably when it comes to dividing up the prize money. Still under rated by the odds compilers, he is much more likely to produce the goods today than either of his opponents. He missed the cut here last year, but has got to grips with the course nicely now, improving from a Thursday 70 to a 67 yesterday. Something similar will be enough.
I wouldn't give Dan Berger much chance at all. I would make Swafford a shade of odds on, and as such is a superb price.
5pts Hudson Swafford 3 ball 6-4.
Shame Swafford got reeled in late on yesterday, for only a split stake. Though not as disappointing as Lingmerths finish, that could prove costly.
Quiet a few 2 balls look worth backing today.
3pts treble Matt Kuchar 1/2, Webb Simpson 4-7, Chris Kirk 4-7.
All look bankers, and be a surprise if didnt collect.
Best bet of the day to me looks to be Mark Wilson at 13-8 to see off last weeks winner Ben Martin. Martin had a good day yesterday, but could be forgiven for feeling a bit jaded by now, and may find it hard to re energise himself if he doesnt get off to a great start. Wilson generally finishes tournamnets off weel, and holds his form when he finds it. I would make Wilson a shade of fav.
Hudson Swafford only drew with Kevin Kisner yesterday, but that doesnt the latter his equal, and 6-5 on Swafford is a very good bet.
Brendon Todd should get the job done against Daniel Summerhays, and rates a bet at Corals 19-20.
5pts Mark Wilson 13-8
5pts Hudson Swafford 6-5
6pts Brendon Todd 19-20
Quiet a few 2 balls look worth backing today.
3pts treble Matt Kuchar 1/2, Webb Simpson 4-7, Chris Kirk 4-7.
All look bankers, and be a surprise if didnt collect.
Best bet of the day to me looks to be Mark Wilson at 13-8 to see off last weeks winner Ben Martin. Martin had a good day yesterday, but could be forgiven for feeling a bit jaded by now, and may find it hard to re energise himself if he doesnt get off to a great start. Wilson generally finishes tournamnets off weel, and holds his form when he finds it. I would make Wilson a shade of fav.
Hudson Swafford only drew with Kevin Kisner yesterday, but that doesnt the latter his equal, and 6-5 on Swafford is a very good bet.
Brendon Todd should get the job done against Daniel Summerhays, and rates a bet at Corals 19-20.
5pts Mark Wilson 13-8
5pts Hudson Swafford 6-5
6pts Brendon Todd 19-20
rough ride home tho oz.. ling missed a tiddler to go 5 ahead of him on the last..the bogey was sweet... callit the master again!!
That last hole was pretty kind to me today!! Wilson went down it level with Martin, and Martin made a mess out of it.
I would have been sick if Lingmerth didn't oblige. He looked the better player and in control all week, and was nearly mugged.
Pity Kirk gave away a few silly shots today.
I would have been sick if Lingmerth didn't oblige. He looked the better player and in control all week, and was nearly mugged.
Pity Kirk gave away a few silly shots today.
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