Brave Men Betting Those Odds

The third member is obviously all in.

Good man Borneo!

Did you break your self imposed laying ban?

welldone Wildman..

I should out of badness give you the figure I laid it for but I'm not that cruel.

Ah go on!

Haven't a clue who you are talking about but no matter,he is all out now, don't think P S did much wrong maybe could have kicked earlier,awkward head with Clondaw for much of the early part.
Lovely lay if you did that.
Full sure Willowing was up in the 6.10,opened 1.05 in photo,stayed for a while and went 1.2ish again stayed and the few seconds before it was announced went into freefall towards evens,burnt fingers there as well. Learned my own lessons with photos a long time ago.

I thought Willowing won handy.

The all in reference was a clue.

I hope this thread isn't expanding on the insinuations you previously made?

The third member not the first and 'twas you made the allegations.

I seem to be alone in thinking he is not only a great jockey,a great pundit but a likeable fellow,maybe its his straight talking.

hell cat Maggie for me in 7.40..my only bet ..

Good man Tony.

as you know pa..only a small bet..just my luck..a decent bet and it would of been beat with my luck!!

A winner is a winner and a decent price too,well done Tony.

yes im gratefull Wildman..

Kasper or the supermarket dynasty?

WD Tony 57

Neither.

Fancy Klepht here,question marks over the first two in the market.

Klephts hurdle form the equal of Waaheb and getting four pound.

You hardly greened up at 1.8 (liquidity was too thin for a punter of your size anyhow but decent amounts at evens).

I don't know who the fifth member of the syndicate is but I find it a tad strange that the only motive that was cited for the lay was the ownership structure when you consider that you proclaim at least one member to be strong willed and of immense ethical integrity.

I could understand a lay on pure value grounds(1/4) taking into account the reduction in trip,the expeditious nature of running under the mandatory penalty and the quality of the opposition at Tramore.

Would you deny that your primary motivation for your astute lay was your knowledge of the undivulged owner?

The name of the syndicate is significant.

I laid it at 1.4 and 1.39 and down,seemed crazy odds on to me back in trip and with the added danger of an under pressure connection.

I would never green out unless I thought the horse was a doubtful stayer,my mistake in that race was not backing Clara McCloud as I liked neither of the joint favourites.

Do you not see my point though that if you felt the other influential members of the syndicate were so strong willed and morally sound, should the under-pressure connection theory then become redundant?Have you not contradicted yourself?

It is noticeable that you don't deny that your cynicism of the other member was the primary motivation of the lay.

I don't think he is a member of that syndicate as I said look at the syndicates name.

he is trying to explain to you that "the wife" of a top jumps jockey is the part owner, if you go to healy racing and check out the pics from tramore, all is explained.

2/9 on an ordinary animal in a handicap in Ireland, only for the needy and greedy surely.....is that the second very short one to be beaten at this track in the last few years...did stack have a 1/4 shot turned over having previously sluiced in at wexford?.

We are all aware that Ruby,Gillian,David Casey and his wife are members of the syndicate (it was reported on a few websites over the weekend and Gillian's name is on the syndicate as agent).We had been debating Wildman's cynicism regarding the fifth member but now he seems to be contradicting himself again (recent post compared to opening posts) by stating that he is not sure if he is a member of the syndicate at all.

I wasn't aware of that,I thought the syndicate had three members.

You want to see contradiction because you are blinded by bias but its not there.

clondaw warrior has one of the worst pedigrees you are likely to find for a horse running on the flat, wouldnt call the people backing
that one brave, completely stupid would be closer to the truth, so it seems grandma dotty was well in at the weights down from 76 to 57.

I don't think I have been biased at all on this thread and genuinely congratulated you on an astute lay.

However I do feel you have contradicted yourself on this thread on a couple of occasions but I am open to correction. The simplest example is the following statements.

"Brave Men Betting Those Odds,When you consider the owners of Clondaw Warrior brave indeed."

"The third member is obviously all in."

And then later on the thread

"I don't think he is a member of that syndicate"

Typical bar stool talk from wilddan......you can picture him giving it fong last night in his local.....talking out the side of his mouth.....with a few local half wits hanging off every word right alongside him.....
The horse may have been beaten but the defeat had fukk all whatsoever to do with who owned him.....
As keen leader pointed out the same thing happened about 4 years ago with a horse of Stacks.....winning in Wexford on a Saturday and getting rolled at 4 on in Roscommon 2 days later.....
The horse was ridden by the best jockey in the game and trained by the best trainer......came to win its race but ultimately fizzled out.....the quick race obviously took its toll.....it took enough of an edge off him to get it beaten.....that's the reality of it.....nothing at all to do with the cryptic bollox talk that dan is rambling about.....
Anybody who was in Tramore will know who he is referring to.....he was in the parade ring....so its hardly a secret.....

They often say Ireland is a nation of begrudgers, wildman seems to take great pleasure living up to the image !!!!

Not sure I fully follow this thread, as it is cloaked in the usual smarmy 'in the know' barstoooler manner.

Boreno goes all in on a hoss based on the make-up of the ownership and then it turns out the actual makeup of the syndicate was different to what he thought?

I wasn't even sure from the opening posts that he had layed it.  Then it loses and it turns out he was 'all in'.  I hope he let his buddies on here know in advance of this monster coup and that several collected!

The usual suspects showing their inability to follow a thread,nowhere do I say I was all in nowhere.

Paulie Wallnuts gives a fair résumé of what happened but my thinking was done before the race.

Its not unreasonable to look at all angles when a horse is odds on,that was huge odds on so the worry about a going day is fair.

If a green and gold horse is odds on do we factor in the owner,of course we do.

Paulie seems to have been brought to Tramore,now if Rocketfingers was there as well and they ventured into the betting ring and had a bet the nervousness would kick in,doubt if the Tramore Ilie Nastase could cope.

2/9 in a 14horse handicap ;  i wonder in which decade that last happened.

But your thinking is a load of ballooney.....ok the horse got beaten....but it had zero to do with anybody owning it.....what kind of operation do you think Mullins is running here.....do you honestly think that Pat Smullen is going to bother with the nonsense you are alluding to.....do you think that the top trainer in the land is going to pull one up for somebody who has a part share in a horse that was given away for nothing.....
You are living in looloo land..... a complete fantasist....

That would be my take on it, Paulie.

Two years ago and again in Roscommon Time Of My Life was beaten at 2/9 in a handicap.

Paulie we know that now and a few minutes before the off we knew because of the weight of money for it,I was then hoping for the drop back in trip to work for me.

Would you bet odds on a green and gold horse in a Mickey Mouse Roscommon handicap worth less than six grand to the winner.
Would you bet odds on a Harry Findlay owned horse in similar circumstances.
Would you bet odds on a horse trained in Ballingarry in those circumstances.

Bloody sure you wouldn't.

Hard to please some on here,the thread title says "Brave men betting those odds",the horse was backed from memory when the post went up from 1.43 to 1.25 approx, hindsight wonderful but it was crazy in a handicap.(i had no bet in the race but at that price surely should have been at least a little on.)

I myself wouldn't back any horse at 2/9.....no matter who owned it.....its not part of my overall plan betting those prices.....
The thing is you said that they were brave men indeed when you consider the owners of Clondaw Warrior......that's what you said.....that has nothing to do with green and gold....harry Findlay....or Ballingarry....none of those people have anything to do with this animal.....nothing whatsoever....
Basically what you wanted to do was let people know that you knew who the third party was.....and have some sort of cryptic quiz along the way.....Anybody who watched the racing on ATR on Saturday night would have gained that information.....

Stop now Pa.....the title "brave men betting these odds" was fine without being qualified.....with the snide" when you consider the owners of clondaw warrior brave indeed".......its aload of bollox as usual.....and you know it is too.....

It's a comparison.

You don't back horses owned by people who make their living gambling,ask Gary OBrien.

Basically what you wanted to do was let people know that you knew who the third party was.,.......and have some sort of cryptic quiz along the way....

Spot on, Paulie.

Ozymandius rather than just shout in craven agreement write your own paen to Paulie and DJ876 they might then accept you.

Wildman will have no prob with using the khazi as he is being ripped a new a r s ehole right here!!!

over the top toby?..Wildman and paulie disagree on a subject?..whats new..

Vulgarity and swearing are the trademarks of the listening Tobywong.

Borneo will probably be the only racegoer satisfied with the plans for a new refit of the toilet and dining facilities at the Curragh;

http://cheezburger.com/7135144192

ah no tony , rather appropriate given all the toilet references!

Toby go back to reading all those crime books , over a thousand is what you said you have read , well it says all for me , whenever you come on here , it really is a crime...

Wildmanfromborneo I see a horse you noted a good while back is going at Sligo tonight  Donatis Comet...8.20...

I suggest Betfair for Dummies as essential reading for yourself wonks ,or maybe something on USA Racing

yes I looked at that wr..such a poor contest it has to win surely with a clear round..although the o,leary horse may give it a race..couldn't back the walsh runner!but I suppose its a fair lay also ..cos its so short..

He is absolutely ground dependant,he is a triple bumper winner that had the speed to win a ten furlong maiden in Clonmel.

Three times he has been second in his maiden hurdle including twice around Sligo,his last Galway run would be plenty good enough.

You can never really trust ground conditions in Sligo,many times ground firm everywhere but soft n Sligo,the track retains water,if the ground is good or better he is a bet.

A brave man to put too much on Keyboard Melody 6.50 as he looks limited,moody,one paced but what a shockingly bad handicap,bookies were dopey enough to open Temasek Star at 9/2 and 4/1 last night and watching the vid of him and Keyboard Melody last time it is easy to see why they have "flip flopped". Think the current market is a bit of an over reaction to that and Keyboards truer price is nearer the 2/1-9/4 mark.
One paced but plugs on would be my summary on him,finding it very hard to make a case for anything else on what they have showed so far.

Talking about brave men and odds taken , delighted to read young Karen  Kelly who took a horrible fall the other day is doing well , looked bad when she lay without moving for a considerable time , but it now looks as if its not as bad as it first seemed ..So good news for her and her family....

Small few quid on SPS here.....

Keyboard Melody looks one for the Timeform squiggle,matched at 1.31 in the win and 1.02 in the place market. His dam was better over a mile but that was a poor handicap tonight,Rathealy was unlucky not to get a run but not a race to be following.

Never looked like a 1.31 shot,disappointing run in that field and hard to see him get any race.
Good shot again with Donati's Wildman, you're like Shamie Callanan on this thread.

Pa......Old wilddan was in a fairly good position really....he said Donatis Comet was a bet if the ground was good or better.....the ground was yielding.....so no matter what happened Dan couldn't lose.....a bit like the start of this thread.....where at no stage does he definitely say he is laying Clondaw Warrior.....until that is ......when the race is over.....

Don't think he meant for a second to be "double meaning" Paulie,not his style at all, just concerns over the ground and not the ability of the horse, official ground given was good to yielding whether that constituted a bet for him i don't know but took it on the way the original post was written that he did fancy the horse.

People are different Paulie,some are confident others are realistic,after all they are animals and who knows what goes on in their heads,they might have the hump or an off day,who knows.
Provisio's aren't a bad thing,you can judge the merits of them and see is there substance.
Fair play you fancy Australia so strongly, and the very best of luck, times are when we do fancy something strongly and back accordingly,being honest i,d be for want of a better word "nervous/hyper" enough on them days,more from being wrong than the money.

interesting thread..australia  i backed him a few times and am up overall on him.but sadly my biggest bet on him was first time out   missed break and finished second to a bolger yoke whos a stone at least inferior to him..thats life.it happens.id say tomorrow hes a 4/5 chance.apob has put his excuses in first which is worrying.jpob is struggling to  do 8.12   the opposition even tho only 5 are strong if they hit form...not a betting race for me.

wildmanfromborneo 19 Aug 14 12:50 Joined: 30 Nov 10 | Topic/replies: 14,688 | Blogger: wildmanfromborneo's blog
He is absolutely ground dependant,he is a triple bumper winner that had the speed to win a ten furlong maiden in Clonmel.

Three times he has been second in his maiden hurdle including twice around Sligo,his last Galway run would be plenty good enough.

You can never really trust ground conditions in Sligo,many times ground firm everywhere but soft n Sligo,the track retains water,if the ground is good or better he is a bet.

Rubbish just off the phone to a man who walked the track and pulled his horse out, going was correct as officially given.

^^ Not sure that has anything to do with the price of fish.
Well Paulie balls deep in Welds listed one tonight at 5/4+,no provisios for ya,but i,ll have to  feck off for a while.

best of luck pa..i,ll have everything crossed for you !

paulie: Why cant people say that they do fancy a horse and they are having their balls on it......no ifs buts or maybes.....like for example tomorrow.....no matter what im selling out on Australia.....

pa: Fair play you fancy Australia so strongly, and the very best of luck, times are when we do fancy something strongly and back accordingly,being honest i,d be for want of a better word "nervous/hyper" enough on them days,more from being wrong than the money.

This reminds me of the famous economist front cover (here: https://www.flickr.com/photos/60433209@N00/2867609321/ where an incorrectly overheard "sell" recommendation becomes a "buy" frenzy in just a few moments

"selling out" on Australia means something to me other than pa's interpretation

I think Pa's interpretation is correct.

Thanks Tony,not the bobs as much but the level of confidence,no brownie points in the pick as like many was deeply impressed with debut,most will know the "provisio's" but it will be a bit of a land to me if she is beat.
As you say it R A you are right but certainly meant in the context of putting what he has available on it.
Remember going around to a buddy of mines house in the 70's and sitting on a milk crate as the furniture was sold for a "good thing"

Rubbish just off the phone to a man who walked the track and pulled his horse out, going was correct as officially given. Posted at 00.47 , he left it a little late there Rocket ....

Around ten years ago I was in Hogans Bar in Birr,during a rip roaring racing discussion naps were looked for,I was first in Solerina is a certainty in Tipperary tomorrow,someone else ventured Harchibald,won't walk on the ground I replied can't win.

I won't go into the gory details but Harchibald won.

When I returned to that bar some weeks later,the owner told me of huge sums lost by small punters on Solerina,fiver punters having fifty on it and general devastation.

Having said all that I agree with Pa,Brooch a certainty tonight 11/8 with Boyles but I assume that's long gone.

yes pa, go with your eyes and gut..they never lie..

Wildmanfromborneo , do you ever go into Ryans in the square in Thurles ? reason I ask is in the 90s we had a golf outing in Thurles and ended up in there after ...Been the only Dub I was getting a pasting from my friends , i.e. what would you know you're only a Dub etc etc , we were having great craic , when down comes the owner and puts a drink in front of me and says , here's to us Dubs , turns out me and him were born in the same street , and he knew my Father well , turns out his Father owned our local before moving back to Tipp ..A small world or what...

Let me see if I understand your story, Borneo.

Because you napped a horse in a pub, small punters fell over themselves to back your selection?  Such was the respect in the pub for your judgement?

Here is the reality of what happens when Borneo walks into a pub;

They would know me as a racegoer,

Non racing people have this idea that racing is fixed and some just know what's going to win.

There is one certainty whatever respect they had for my opinion vanished with indecent haste.

Workrider I live a fair bit away from Thurles and rarely drink there.

Fully understand ...No problem ...Just an inquiry...

Are there no good boozers around the Redwood area?

Ryan is a real Tipp name I'd say the lads got some land when the owner turned out to be a Dub.

Golfers in Thurles would be a rare breed,they would all certainly using the hurl grip.

They moved back to Tipp AFTER the father died I think ..A few of my friends are from Tipp , Nenagh , Kilmacthomas , and another one is from the TAX DODGERS part ...All very good golfers I might add...