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The Boy Joseph

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Replies: 166
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 15 Sep 14 17:49
ran into a racing luminary earlier and I would always be reluctant to have "too strong" an opinion on any controversy-du-jour as it tends to send them running to the bunkers and I'd rather get an opinion offered voluntarily without having to force the issue. His take, like many others here, was "run the race ten times and Australia wins nine".

this merely resurrects a major simmering row prior to this year's Derby when the boy was under intense scrutiny again.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 15 Sep 14 17:56
I thought both horses just ran shocking, Australia was getting pushed along way too far out for my liking, he went for him on the turn for home when i fully expected him to be travelling all over the field. As for Leading Light i do agree they gave the winner and pacemaker a lot of rope but Leading Light was being pushed along a long way out and he only barely scraped 2nd place.
By:
kavvie
When: 15 Sep 14 18:20
facts are facts.job carried 1lb overweight.australia covered a lot more grounds than the great gatsby.
By:
kingrat
When: 15 Sep 14 18:23
i actually feel sorry for the kid.for a start,there is no way in hell that he will be able to do the weight as he gets older.the 2nd question is.is he really good enough?and what i mean by that is when the margins are tight and decisve decisions have to be made,the fact is,he just doesn't have it.thats harsh and i understand that his mam and dad are blinded and of course the kid thinks,he knows better.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 15 Sep 14 18:24
How much more ground would you say, Kavvie.  I am not sure how to work this out.
By:
kavvie
When: 15 Sep 14 18:27
well when you see 400 metre runners at the olympics the ones on the outside are way ahead of the inside guys.   so australia was 6 horses wide, lane 6 all the way.and he had to start from level.now there are long straights etc but fact is when they started to turn he was on the outside..impossible to work it out but im sure theres a way?
By:
Ozymandius
When: 15 Sep 14 18:29
Imagine a piece of string wrapped around the Earth's equator - that's about 40,000km. How much MORE string would you need for it to sit 15cm above the ground, all the way around?

A) 1 metre, B) 1 kilometre or C) 1,000 kilometres
By:
kincsem
When: 15 Sep 14 18:32
B)
By:
Ozymandius
When: 15 Sep 14 18:32
which do u reckon Kavvie?
By:
kincsem
When: 15 Sep 14 18:34
Imo Australia should stick to 12f.  If he has won at 10f they would try him at 8f, then 6f, then 5f.
By:
kavvie
When: 15 Sep 14 18:45
c
By:
Ozymandius
When: 15 Sep 14 18:46
Answer is A) 1 metre
By:
Ozymandius
When: 15 Sep 14 18:48
Explanation here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/bang/handson/teaser-string.shtml
By:
mrcombustible
When: 15 Sep 14 18:51
RA why was he under scrutiny before the Derby, thanks
By:
kavvie
When: 15 Sep 14 18:56
the boys in lane 8 are  at a big advantage so in a 400 m round track!?! that cant be true?
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 15 Sep 14 18:59
Someone should tell Ozymandius to get a job.

He seems to have weighed in a pound heavier which is allowed but a lot different than the other occasions.

Overweight is not new,Aubrey Brabazon won an Irish 2000 Guineas carrying a pound over.
By:
Vubiant
When: 15 Sep 14 19:03
A few quick points:-
*If you look at AOB's stats since Joseph took over they're similar to  what went before -in fact some of the percentages are higher.
*There is a good upside to having Joseph riding for Ballydoyle -you get extended truthful feedback from someone who's around the stable every day of the week and can get to know key horses intimately.
*No jockey could come unscathed through the orgy of hypercritical scrutiny his riding attracts -all done with hindsight and not a little done out of malice by professional haters of Ballydoyle success
* It's also worth remembering that riding tactics are going to be discussed by the stable -it's not just down to Joseph. Aidan must shoulder some responsibility for this as well.
* Re the race last Sat , I think the critical analysis has gone way OTT. Is it likely  e.g.that if TGG had failed to get up by a sh hd the talk would have been of a great ride by JOB or even of a great ride by Moore ? Unlikely.
Tiny margins can change the whole tenor of a debate. If you compare Australia's last two races -he ran virtually to the pound with Mukhadram. He's a solid Gr.1 horse worth a rating in the mid to high 120s but not the superstar AOB claimed. Many thought it was a moral certainty  and the shock of disbelief after the defeat  led people  to seek out the most available scapegoat -the jockey.
*It is palpably clear that the (over)weight issue must be faced and resolved very soon -for everyone's sake.
By:
Send.in.the.clowns
When: 15 Sep 14 19:06
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y 15 Sep 14 17:56 Joined: 08 Dec 11 | Topic/replies: 9,798 | Blogger: p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y's blog
I thought both horses just ran shocking, Australia was getting pushed along way too far out for my liking, he went for him on the turn for home when i fully expected him to be travelling all over the field. As for Leading Light i do agree they gave the winner and pacemaker a lot of rope but Leading Light was being pushed along a long way out and he only barely scraped 2nd place

Specsavers suggested ffs, Australia travelled like a dream, you must be the brains of the forum.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 15 Sep 14 19:10
Perhaps dj can help us out with the maths regarding lengths lost going wide.

I accept all tracks are different, but a table for each track would be handy.  Perhaps we could send Wonks to each course with one of those things you wheel to measure distance.
By:
workrider
When: 15 Sep 14 19:18
Norman , would it be different from a wheelchair , would be interested in your views on the matter...
By:
Ozymandius
When: 15 Sep 14 19:29
I would like the forum to note my restraint in not relpying in kind to Wonky's remarks. I don;t want to have you to endure a flurry of his YoMamma 'banter'.  Be thankful.
By:
frank60
When: 15 Sep 14 19:30
JOSEPH lost the cHAMPION by rideing Austrila to wide around the last two bends loseing many lenghts, also Ryan moore was brilliant on the winner, AIDEN is right about Austrila being a 10f horse he won to modest derbys in a poor year.Not josephs finest hour but to say he a poor rider is wrong.
By:
kincsem
When: 15 Sep 14 19:33
Joseph O'Brien did win a Group 1 on Sunday.
By:
Send.in.the.clowns
When: 15 Sep 14 19:35
Any danger of someone translating frank60's post into English?
By:
frank60
When: 15 Sep 14 19:49
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kv2SmrDdNjg      I will  Translate it for you clown.Grin
By:
Vubiant
When: 15 Sep 14 19:54
I had a shot at working it . Please follow me through the labyrinthine thickets and correct if necessary.

I worked with a circle rather than an ellipse

















I had a shot at working it out -taking Leopardstown as a circle rather than the ellipse it actually is... probably can't be a significant difference.
Ok -so the circumference of a circle is given by the formula 2 x pi x r ...where r = the radius of the circle.
I take Leopardstown to be just under  mile and a half circuit -so I estimate it to be 7900 ft.
If 2 x pi x r = 7900 then r =7900 divided by 2 pi = 7900 divided by 6.28 = 1258.

Now I posit that Australia ran along a circumference which was about an average of 22 ft farther out ( about 5 horse widths) -so the radius is now =1280.
I get the new circumference by multiplying this by 2 pi which comes to 8038.
This suggests Australia ran 138 ft or 46 yards or about 20 lengths farther.
In reality it is probably a smaller difference because the horses don't race on the inside rail but a few feet off it. However you cut it though it seems like he travelled a good distance farther than his opponents.
If anyone can spot an obvious flaw please point it out.
By:
Vubiant
When: 15 Sep 14 19:56
Oops -that post went off the rails Sad though I went to great lengths to get it right.Laugh
By:
Ozymandius
When: 15 Sep 14 19:59
I guess the problem with considering it all as a circle, for the straights which, are a big part of the track, the horse 5 length out runs the same distance as the horse on the rail.  I think.
By:
frank60
When: 15 Sep 14 20:01
A gallent
By:
frank60
When: 15 Sep 14 20:02
A gallant effert all the same Vubiant, well done
By:
Send.in.the.clowns
When: 15 Sep 14 20:10
Well done Frank
By:
Vubiant
When: 15 Sep 14 20:10
Good point Ozyma -but even if one divides my approximation by 10 it still gives one a few lengths extra.
Then again TGG also spent some time towards the middle /outer part of the course so that narrows it down a little more. It would be intriguing to get a valid calculation for how far each horse really ran.

If Australia had won by a neck or so -people would still have been surprised
given the general assumption that he would have confirmed the York form ( the race conditions being virtually identical) or even increased the margin a little since AOB said he wasn't fully wound up for York.

If however he covered a few lengths extra and carried a lb more -maybe he's still the moral winner ?
By:
frank60
When: 15 Sep 14 20:16
My sentiments exactly. Vubiant....but not much consolation for the punters who took 30/100Sad
By:
irish_guy_13
When: 15 Sep 14 20:21
The fact is the horse loss by jockey error, end off. Travelled too wide, kicked too soon, overweight and no idea where his main rival was at any stage. plus the horse is not half as good as they built it up to be, every year they come out with more superlatives  about another horse. It's boring.

Money making stallions is their objective and this horses value took a big dent until he proves otherwise in the mating barn.
By:
Vubiant
When: 15 Sep 14 20:21
Indeed frank -it must have been a wrenching Acca buster on a busy racing day when lots of punters bundle up the shorties.
My other thought was -if only one more runner ran -what an e/w bet TGG would've been for singles or multiples !
By:
irish_guy_13
When: 15 Sep 14 20:28
same time for free eagles race can anything be read into that?
By:
The Gotchee
When: 15 Sep 14 20:33
There is too much pressure being put on Joseph. Pressure to ride at a weight 3 stone below his natural healthy weight and pressure every time he rides one of the stable superstars. The mental and physical strains are not good for the young lad. He should go to college and get an education rather than put himself through all that torture.
By:
frank60
When: 15 Sep 14 20:40
The old e/way Thieves bet Vul ,i seem to remember Keen leader putting this type of bet over a period of 4weeks or so about 4years ago on an almost daily basis with the object of making a profit by the end of the 4weeks, IF memory serves he had a nice profit at the end of the it.
By:
frank60
When: 15 Sep 14 20:45
interesting irish guy did,nt know that, free eagle was eased near the finish, It would be great if TGG,free eagle and aussie could meet before the end of the season.
By:
kincsem
When: 15 Sep 14 20:47
turning for 3 furlongs = 660 yards half circumference
turning for 3 furlongs = 1320 yards circle circumference
turning for 3 furlongs = 210 yards circle radius

turning for 3 furlongs running wide 5 yards = 215 yards circle radius
turning for 3 furlongs running wide 5 yards = 1351 yards circle circumference
turning for 3 furlongs running wide 5 yards = 675 yards half circle circumference

extra running wide 5 yards is about 15 yards  (675 yards - 660 yards)
extra running wide 5 yards is about 3 lengths

Confused
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