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pa lapsy
23 Jun 14 14:50
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Date Joined: 06 Apr 09
| Topic/replies: 4,287 | Blogger: pa lapsy's blog
Very impressive in her maiden run at Chantilly earlier,she looks the real deal to me and while 5 million guineas is a fairly obscene price for a yearling it almost looked justified on that debut.
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Report Dan Chipowski June 23, 2014 8:07 PM BST
Impressive debut.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rvJAm2XpPY
Report Send.in.the.clowns June 23, 2014 10:40 PM BST
33/1
Report huddys June 23, 2014 10:50 PM BST
Does anybody know why Frankie didn't take the ride?
Report pa lapsy June 23, 2014 10:57 PM BST
Couldn,t do the weight Huddy,s,see your Pique Sous has opened up at 6/1 for Sat,s Newcastle race,great price if you were certain he,ll line up,not sure i,d trust WPM being so forthright but seems he is very likely to go all the same.
Report huddys June 23, 2014 11:01 PM BST
Thanks Pa,ye huge price alright, going to hold fire ti'l the decs on Thursday, as you said would be confident he will be a defo runner,
Report huddys June 23, 2014 11:09 PM BST
Thomas Eidson looks a big price at 16/1 for the race on Saturday,will be 1/2 the price if Pique Sious doesn't run,
Report pa lapsy June 23, 2014 11:23 PM BST
Does indeed with Pique Sous behind last time,maybe suited a bit better with a little cut? Seems weather might have a part in it, Nearly Caught might run well also, Pique Sous has won in everything but seems to really like quick.
Report huddys June 23, 2014 11:27 PM BST
I think the going was good to firm,good in places today, going to hold fire ti'l the final dec's are in on Thursday,
Report callitasucit June 23, 2014 11:30 PM BST
Pique Sous sure to be over bet. In truth he beat nothing on Sat. Tiger Cliff travelled very well, until something clearly went amiss, and caused his unfortunate death. There was nothing else in the race. Draw can be a factor in Plate aswell, and if it rained he would have no chance. I wouldn't be taking 6s at moment anyway.
Report pa lapsy June 24, 2014 12:35 PM BST
Slight change of tack from WPM this morning, not quite as positive with Pique Sous,waiting to see how he is and confirmed Wylies Lucky Bridle,starting to be a Cheltenham deja vu with him. Right to hold off Huddy,s. Overbet maybe alright Callit and agree with the rain,still well handicapped and in great form and if he lines up think will go off 3/1-7/2.
Report pa lapsy September 8, 2014 11:12 PM BST
Runs in the 1.05 at Chantilly tomorrow,she takes on 6 rivals in a Group 3.
Report richters September 9, 2014 1:11 PM BST
6th of 7 as pacemaker obliges @25s
Report pa lapsy September 9, 2014 1:16 PM BST
I'd knock the wall of China at the moment Richters.Bubble burst for her and the 5m guineas looking a little expensive..
Report richters September 9, 2014 1:21 PM BST
first horse beat pa
Report pa lapsy September 9, 2014 1:24 PM BST
I seen it there,going well turning in,found nothing and looks to be no excuses, a short thread.
Report richters September 9, 2014 1:27 PM BST
hit 1.7 for a spell on the machine,generally 4/6,surprisingly paddy parrs went 4/9
Report Send.in.the.clowns September 9, 2014 1:59 PM BST
looks money well spent
Report pa lapsy September 9, 2014 2:00 PM BST
Was lucky i didn't do her Richters,only one i did today Blue Ridge Lane at Perth,know he has hood,not too well handicapped and a touch of one paced ithous about him,on the plus side  tis a poor,poor race and he is in good form,bit afraid of Wot a Shot as 8lb better for the run behind Christy's Call,still it was a long way and he didn't seem to be hiding anything.
Diamond Gesture form ties in a bit with Wot a Shot on a line through Trend is my Friend on that reason i have him held.Alkali is well backed and being Crawford's have to respect that but he has shown nothing.
What i can't figure is why BRL is 11/4,very well get the answer after the race,last throw of the dice and a rest if that goes down the pan.
Report dj876 September 9, 2014 3:30 PM BST
Best of luck PA,he definitely seems to be overpriced but have not done the replays on that race,a worry that he is a maiden after 23 runs over hurdles but this is countered by the fact that his recent hurdle form has been in handicaps and has been successful twice on the flat this year which should dispel any possible worry about a deterioration in resolution

You're probably getting a decent price because the market would be conservative early about stables like Crawfords/Fergal O'Brien?
Report dj876 September 9, 2014 5:00 PM BST
Up out that PA,WD
Report pa lapsy September 9, 2014 5:06 PM BST
Tis UP OU DAT,

Thats better,anyway.

Only as good as the next one,race i'm looking at is Galway's 5.00 tomorrow,in pricing it up it hinges on what you interpet in the Cork race,nice little exercise with just the 4 runners and will be interesting how the books put it up,will put mine up around 6.00,if anyone wants to have a go in the meantime.
Report neill d September 9, 2014 5:38 PM BST
Good man Pa.
Report workrider September 9, 2014 5:45 PM BST
Well done Pa , badly need a change of luck myself , backed Townend in the last....Cry
Report pa lapsy September 9, 2014 6:18 PM BST
Thanks Neill D/DJ, Said to Tony i'll be taking a break for a while WR,the golf,Sole Power,and Tipp did me no favours over the weekend,problem is was doing too many bets as the norm was 3 0r 4 a week,anyway hopefully puts a "cuter" head on me,physchological thing at times as confidence is needed,funny thing you should be trying harder when you are losing but i think tis the opposite. Anyway thats enough or i'll be driving ye to the drink.

Really wanted to be with Flaxen Flare tomorrow but had a change of heart unless the books get it wrong.
I priced it Flaxen Flare 8/11
            Plinth       2/1
            Rawnaq       9/2
            CourthenC.   8/1

Initial thoughts were F.F. was going a fair bit better but Plinth did stay on very well after F.F's departure, Geraghty and a pound are two positives but honestly could say for definite that FF would have won at Mallow,too thin a margin to say FF is a good thing.
Rawnaq finished ahead of Plinth at Galway but is way worse off in the weights while can't see giving the main too that weight.
Want to be with FF but won't back him at odds on despite what the ratings say.
Report dj876 September 9, 2014 6:23 PM BST
11/8 with Coral if you have a live a/c with them,Geraghty's strength should see him home if needed but the fall would have to be somewhat of a concern.
Report neill d September 9, 2014 6:30 PM BST
In decent company, Plinth is one of those that seems to look better when the race has already gone away from him. You'd have to fancy Flaxen will have him for speed.
Report dj876 September 9, 2014 6:30 PM BST
Nice chasing type that for the Wildman's buddy,I didn't realise that race is over two and a half miles tomorrow,first time over the trip is another concern,cno bet for me
Report pa lapsy September 9, 2014 6:32 PM BST
Thats a great price,It was a soft enough fall( know Mr Condon didn't think so and hope he is on the mend) but a fair point.It was after a little lay off for FF and went far enough for the run to have done him good as well on a more positive side.
Win or lose i,ll be on if i got 11/8.
Report neill d September 9, 2014 6:38 PM BST
Flaxen Flare has been running and finishing well in those good 2 mile hurdles so the trip might not be too much of an issue.
Report pa lapsy September 9, 2014 6:40 PM BST
Not too worried with the trip,think Barry will set a steady pace,Rawnaq and Plinth are in the same boat,Courtencather has no problem staying,i just don't see him having the form.
Report dj876 September 9, 2014 6:42 PM BST
Fair and accurate points from both of ye and 11/8 is a very price,Elliot's string are in very decent form as well.
Report dj876 September 9, 2014 6:43 PM BST
pp

FF-13/8
PL-11/8
Report pa lapsy September 9, 2014 6:52 PM BST
Thanks DJ,done him at that.
Possible i,m losing my marbles(not 1st time) but can't figure out how Gary Carson makes out that Plinth is 4lb better off tomorrow on the Mallow run,i make it FF is a LB better off.
Report pa lapsy September 9, 2014 6:52 PM BST
^ From Irishracing.com.
Report dj876 September 9, 2014 7:07 PM BST
I think he's right Pa,FF carried 11-12 versus 11-2 for Plinth at Cork and tomorrow gives him a stone when you account for the same claim.
Report pa lapsy September 9, 2014 7:16 PM BST
Yeah,but including the claim it was 15lb at Cork,tomorrow it's a stone, where does he get 4lb?????, shockingly poor maths from me anyway as got it wrong myself and Plinth(debated) is a pound better off.
Report dj876 September 9, 2014 7:17 PM BST
No he carried 11-2 after taking account of the claim.
Report dj876 September 9, 2014 7:21 PM BST
Timeform give the weight carried without taking account of the claim where as Irishracing.com give the weight carried after taking into account the claim.He gave him ten pounds at Cork,tomorrow gives him a stone.
Report pa lapsy September 10, 2014 10:10 AM BST
Very bad from me and apologies to Mr.Carson who is no daw in the maths department.
After getting the weight wrong obviously the main two should have been a bit closer in my prices which is shown by the books tis morning,still pp's 13/8 looks to be a nice price now and hopefully manages to do the business though a bit more by luck than design.
Report frank60 September 10, 2014 2:26 PM BST
Ladbrooke [ireland]special today  if you horse is place 2nd to Flaxen flare in the 5.00 atGalway today they will give money back as a free bet,in a 4 horse race not a bad special, Max 25euro
Report Ozymandius September 10, 2014 2:28 PM BST
Shops only, Frank?
Report frank60 September 10, 2014 2:39 PM BST
Ithink so.
Report dj876 September 10, 2014 5:07 PM BST
WD Gents,was worried briefly after the second last,BJG
Report pa lapsy September 11, 2014 12:04 PM BST
Hope you done well with him Neill,the imput was appreciated on the race though a bit sloppy on my part.
Two trappy meetings today and tomorrow to me so with the "back to basics" mantra will hold off till the weekends cracking racing,heady days, a sequence of two. Grin
Report neill d September 11, 2014 1:02 PM BST
Enough to get a few nice lunches for the rest of the week anyway Pa, so plenty!

He's a horse that is easy enough to take a liking to and it will be interesting to see what they do with him now as he might find things a little harder come winter when the handy conditions hurdles dry up. Very hard on a horse to keep running in all those top-end handicap hurdles. He must be at about his ceiling.

Not sure he's that big, he ran a fair bit on the Flat but I imagine they might give fences a go and plot the kind of slow starting route Cause of Causes took last year. It very nearly paid off for them big then.
Report pa lapsy September 11, 2014 1:39 PM BST
Good man,Ha,a bottle of Chivas was me own present to myself,had a few hot ones and enjoyed them though tis sacrilege with that as it's grand on its own,an early start to the hot one season.
He is very likeable alright,Elliott said he has been schooled over fences though the plan is to stay hurdling this season,not sure that is the right way to go as giving lumps away later on, as you say he doesn't look that big to me either, only 5 so young enough.
Poor hurdling and maybe will respect a fence a bit more,i'd worry for him with them,if he was okay over them he would be on the edge of Arkle class in March.
Report neill d September 11, 2014 1:49 PM BST
My brother is more the whiskey guy in the family, sure someone got him that Chivas as a birthday present one year.

Too true, as I say, don't see the upside of staying over flights unless he doesn't like jumping. Mullins will have something for every conditions hurdle in Ireland. If he takes to them you'd have an Arkle/Jewson horse or at the least something they could plot for the Grand Annual or Two-and-a-half mile handicap for novices plus all the other events along the way.
Report pa lapsy September 11, 2014 2:02 PM BST
Agree 100% with hurdling,on the other side after his beginners he will be bumping into Mullins in any half decent nov ch though as well,not a bad mark on the flat in the mid 80's and would be able to pick up a back end or two 1m 6f+ with that giving the good form he is in, Gordon's no daw but that would be the way i'd go first for a decent pot for him.
Report neill d September 11, 2014 2:11 PM BST
That is a good shout Pa re the Flat.
Report pa lapsy September 11, 2014 2:21 PM BST
We'll see,from memory there are around 3 premier long distance handicaps in the last few weeks in the season,looks at least a stone well on flat ratings.
Looking at irishracings write up on FF there,Barry looks like the Michelin man on a minature in the photoLaugh, think you were spot on about him being small.
Report Goretski June 4, 2015 6:05 PM BST
Would i be crazy to throw a fiver at this beast tomorrow? Mischief
Report CheltenhamRoar June 5, 2015 10:30 AM BST
Interesting one alright!
Report roadrunner46 June 5, 2015 10:32 AM BST
so interesting you havent got a clueLaugh
Report neill d June 5, 2015 11:17 AM BST
^^^^Bipolar
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