Irish Sports
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Very impressive in her maiden run at Chantilly earlier,she looks the real deal to me and while 5 million guineas is a fairly obscene price for a yearling it almost looked justified on that debut.
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Impressive debut.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rvJAm2XpPY |
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33/1
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Does anybody know why Frankie didn't take the ride?
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Couldn,t do the weight Huddy,s,see your Pique Sous has opened up at 6/1 for Sat,s Newcastle race,great price if you were certain he,ll line up,not sure i,d trust WPM being so forthright but seems he is very likely to go all the same.
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Thanks Pa,ye huge price alright, going to hold fire ti'l the decs on Thursday, as you said would be confident he will be a defo runner,
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Thomas Eidson looks a big price at 16/1 for the race on Saturday,will be 1/2 the price if Pique Sious doesn't run,
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Does indeed with Pique Sous behind last time,maybe suited a bit better with a little cut? Seems weather might have a part in it, Nearly Caught might run well also, Pique Sous has won in everything but seems to really like quick.
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I think the going was good to firm,good in places today, going to hold fire ti'l the final dec's are in on Thursday,
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Pique Sous sure to be over bet. In truth he beat nothing on Sat. Tiger Cliff travelled very well, until something clearly went amiss, and caused his unfortunate death. There was nothing else in the race. Draw can be a factor in Plate aswell, and if it rained he would have no chance. I wouldn't be taking 6s at moment anyway.
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Slight change of tack from WPM this morning, not quite as positive with Pique Sous,waiting to see how he is and confirmed Wylies Lucky Bridle,starting to be a Cheltenham deja vu with him. Right to hold off Huddy,s. Overbet maybe alright Callit and agree with the rain,still well handicapped and in great form and if he lines up think will go off 3/1-7/2.
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Runs in the 1.05 at Chantilly tomorrow,she takes on 6 rivals in a Group 3.
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6th of 7 as pacemaker obliges @25s
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I'd knock the wall of China at the moment Richters.Bubble burst for her and the 5m guineas looking a little expensive..
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first horse beat pa
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I seen it there,going well turning in,found nothing and looks to be no excuses, a short thread.
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hit 1.7 for a spell on the machine,generally 4/6,surprisingly paddy parrs went 4/9
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looks money well spent
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Was lucky i didn't do her Richters,only one i did today Blue Ridge Lane at Perth,know he has hood,not too well handicapped and a touch of one paced ithous about him,on the plus side tis a poor,poor race and he is in good form,bit afraid of Wot a Shot as 8lb better for the run behind Christy's Call,still it was a long way and he didn't seem to be hiding anything.
Diamond Gesture form ties in a bit with Wot a Shot on a line through Trend is my Friend on that reason i have him held.Alkali is well backed and being Crawford's have to respect that but he has shown nothing. What i can't figure is why BRL is 11/4,very well get the answer after the race,last throw of the dice and a rest if that goes down the pan. |
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Best of luck PA,he definitely seems to be overpriced but have not done the replays on that race,a worry that he is a maiden after 23 runs over hurdles but this is countered by the fact that his recent hurdle form has been in handicaps and has been successful twice on the flat this year which should dispel any possible worry about a deterioration in resolution
You're probably getting a decent price because the market would be conservative early about stables like Crawfords/Fergal O'Brien? |
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Up out that PA,WD
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Tis UP OU DAT,
Thats better,anyway. Only as good as the next one,race i'm looking at is Galway's 5.00 tomorrow,in pricing it up it hinges on what you interpet in the Cork race,nice little exercise with just the 4 runners and will be interesting how the books put it up,will put mine up around 6.00,if anyone wants to have a go in the meantime. |
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Good man Pa.
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Well done Pa , badly need a change of luck myself , backed Townend in the last....
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Thanks Neill D/DJ, Said to Tony i'll be taking a break for a while WR,the golf,Sole Power,and Tipp did me no favours over the weekend,problem is was doing too many bets as the norm was 3 0r 4 a week,anyway hopefully puts a "cuter" head on me,physchological thing at times as confidence is needed,funny thing you should be trying harder when you are losing but i think tis the opposite. Anyway thats enough or i'll be driving ye to the drink.
Really wanted to be with Flaxen Flare tomorrow but had a change of heart unless the books get it wrong. I priced it Flaxen Flare 8/11 Plinth 2/1 Rawnaq 9/2 CourthenC. 8/1 Initial thoughts were F.F. was going a fair bit better but Plinth did stay on very well after F.F's departure, Geraghty and a pound are two positives but honestly could say for definite that FF would have won at Mallow,too thin a margin to say FF is a good thing. Rawnaq finished ahead of Plinth at Galway but is way worse off in the weights while can't see giving the main too that weight. Want to be with FF but won't back him at odds on despite what the ratings say. |
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11/8 with Coral if you have a live a/c with them,Geraghty's strength should see him home if needed but the fall would have to be somewhat of a concern.
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In decent company, Plinth is one of those that seems to look better when the race has already gone away from him. You'd have to fancy Flaxen will have him for speed.
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Nice chasing type that for the Wildman's buddy,I didn't realise that race is over two and a half miles tomorrow,first time over the trip is another concern,cno bet for me
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Thats a great price,It was a soft enough fall( know Mr Condon didn't think so and hope he is on the mend) but a fair point.It was after a little lay off for FF and went far enough for the run to have done him good as well on a more positive side.
Win or lose i,ll be on if i got 11/8. |
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Flaxen Flare has been running and finishing well in those good 2 mile hurdles so the trip might not be too much of an issue.
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Not too worried with the trip,think Barry will set a steady pace,Rawnaq and Plinth are in the same boat,Courtencather has no problem staying,i just don't see him having the form.
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Fair and accurate points from both of ye and 11/8 is a very price,Elliot's string are in very decent form as well.
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pp
FF-13/8 PL-11/8 |
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Thanks DJ,done him at that.
Possible i,m losing my marbles(not 1st time) but can't figure out how Gary Carson makes out that Plinth is 4lb better off tomorrow on the Mallow run,i make it FF is a LB better off. |
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^ From Irishracing.com.
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I think he's right Pa,FF carried 11-12 versus 11-2 for Plinth at Cork and tomorrow gives him a stone when you account for the same claim.
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Yeah,but including the claim it was 15lb at Cork,tomorrow it's a stone, where does he get 4lb?????, shockingly poor maths from me anyway as got it wrong myself and Plinth(debated) is a pound better off.
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No he carried 11-2 after taking account of the claim.
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Timeform give the weight carried without taking account of the claim where as Irishracing.com give the weight carried after taking into account the claim.He gave him ten pounds at Cork,tomorrow gives him a stone.
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Very bad from me and apologies to Mr.Carson who is no daw in the maths department.
After getting the weight wrong obviously the main two should have been a bit closer in my prices which is shown by the books tis morning,still pp's 13/8 looks to be a nice price now and hopefully manages to do the business though a bit more by luck than design. |