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Kelly
19 Jun 14 11:29
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Date Joined: 08 Mar 01
| Topic/replies: 8,927 | Blogger: Kelly's blog
Some standouts today , but only for the really early birds .

2.30 looks like a 2 horse race , and impressed with Aidan's Great War .  One of the few O'Brien horses which has looked the part so far this season . Managed a few bob on it at evens .

3.05 I fancy Cannock Chase , backed it at 5/2 last night on Sportsbook , good deal shorter now .

Leading Light is pretty short against a big field , but money speaking .  Brown Panther is an alternative at 8/1 , but stamina ?

Good luck to all today , think it could be a good day for the punters .
Pause Switch to Standard View Royal Ascot , Day 3 .
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Report snap crackle and pop June 19, 2014 11:41 AM BST
Comtesse @ 4/5 6.25 Leop. A gilt edged point and shoot job if ever I saw one!

Leading Light will lead these a merry dance, on at evens

Roossey in the opener at Ripon another point and steer job at 5/4

Nice treble for a Thursday!
Report workrider June 19, 2014 12:09 PM BST
Obliterator , know Ger thinks a lot of this fellow , ran to bad to be true in gns , for once Spencer did the right thing and looked after him him , by practically pulling him up , a jockey who I can safely say does my head in ..How he gets so many top rides is beyond me , always willing to let a jockey have an off day by this guy makes blunders day after day , he think there is only one way to ride a horse , by holding it up ..Can't see either him or Frankie lasting much longer with this outfit tbh ..Massive chance today ...Vazira would be my choice in the fillies race , trainer seldom sends one over without it having a huge chance ...Finally a little e/w on Royal Diamond , think his run behind L/Light was badly needed ...Good  Luck..
Report RoyalAcademy June 19, 2014 12:14 PM BST
I like Wonderstruck for Haggas in the Ribblesdale. He has improved a maiden before to win this race and I look to the filly to continue Sea The Star's good second season so far.
Report gutfeeling June 19, 2014 12:54 PM BST
Mukhmal / Obliterator both backed to win here, Was very impressed with the Johnson horse at Chester and can't have AOB with the stable looking to not be firing at their usual standard. Ger's runner hated the going in the Guineas and better is expected today.

Tac De Boistron is a big AP loser for me so I'll have a hopeful punt on Royal Diamond, Looked to need every inch of the 2m here in October, Acts on all types of ground and 16/1 is fair imo.

Don't know a great deal about Final Score so I'm wary of her here but believe Inchila should be winning the Ribblesdale after a great run in The Oaks, Surely would have finished closer but for getting caught in a pocket at the furlong pole but she's short enough, Maybe a small cover on the Italian horse just in case.

Elite Army is a strong fancy and word is spreading around HQ currently, Could go off a very short price.
Good luck one and all.
Report pa lapsy June 19, 2014 1:00 PM BST
Safe with Tac de Boistron GF, a n/r, needed softer, same as you Kelly with the 1st 2 races.
GL all.
Report snap crackle and pop June 19, 2014 1:03 PM BST
Also think The Great War is the lay of the meeting at 10/11.

While he has been visually impressive in both his wins, the form doesn't amount to much and price is purely based on hype and potential rather than form to my eyes at least anyway
Report Temlett June 19, 2014 1:19 PM BST
Piece that I picked up on puntersblogs.

Seems new so I am not sure how good the tipster is.


Day 2 Recap:

Yesterday went ok, but could have actually been much better if we had put on neck on the block to a greater extent. We highlighted the Irish Guineas prep as producing the last couple of winners of the Jersey Stakes and were very positive on the chances of Mustajeb, but did not pull the trigger. Similarly we gave a very positive write up about the chances of The Fugue, but did not include the mare in our bets.

However Anthem Alexander rewarded our confidence and biggest bet of the week so far, to give us a profit on the day.

Royal Ascot 2:30 – Norfolk Stakes

This race makes no appeal as a betting medium at this stage. The Ballydoyle trained The Great War has been the talking horse of the week for the yard and he has been heavily backed ever since the market opened for this race. He may well prove to be a top class juvenile as he has been impressive on both his starts, but he offers little value at 10/11, even if this looks a poor quality renewal. He is much the likeliest winner and there will be many that will disagree with me, but the powder is being kept dry in this contest.

Royal Ascot 3:05 – Tercentenary Stakes

Leaving aside the horrible name, which was much better as the Hampton Court Stakes, this looks a very interesting renewal of a race that was not one of my favourites when it first was added to the roster, but has produced some exciting races and some very decent prospects for the future.

All of the money in this contest seems to be for the Sir Michael Stoute trained Cannock Chase and the son of Lemon Drop Kid is now as short as 7/4 in places. He looks very progressive and won what is always a hot handicap at Newbury last time, in the style of a potential pattern performer. That was off a mark of 89 and while he is more than capable of making the step up in class, as many from his stable have done in the past, he is plenty short enough now.

The continually contracting Cannock Chase price does provide us with what is hopefully a useful each way angle in the race now and the horse we like is Obliterator. This son of Oratorio is a half brother to Just The Judge and he showed plenty of ability first time up at the Curragh last year, when he was an impressive winner of his maiden. Despite being reportedly in need of the run on his 2014 debut, he attracted market support and ran a blinder when second in the Fielden Stakes to True Story. He had Barley Mow behind him that day, who has the benefit of a run and is a horse that seems to be better with some cut in the ground, so we would be hopeful of confirming that form with the Hannon horse.

Obliterator ran no sort of race in the Irish 2000 Guineas but he hated the ground that day and back on a fast surface, we should hopefully see him build on the promise of his seasonal debut.

Mutakayyef may well prove to be a big danger in this contest after his confidence boosting win last time and with Sea The Stars first crop improving markedly through their 3 year old season and also being very effective on faster ground. He was spoken of in glowing terms by Maureen Haggas after Sandown and they clear rate him very highly.

Cloudscape has not gone on as we hoped after his first two wins and despite running a solid race last time in a handicap, he now has a bit to prove.

So it is Obliterator for us at the prices with respect obviously being given to the favourite and the Haggas trained Mutakayyef.

Royal Ascot 3:45 – Ribblesdale Stakes

This is a race in which Riposte provided such a memorable display in last year, winning for Lady Cecil, so soon after the death of the legendary Sir Henry Cecil and scenes like that will not be repeated this year. However we do have an exciting race in store with Sea The Stars progeny once again to the fore with Vazira and Wonderstruck.

The best form coming into this race is provided by the Peter Chapple-Hyam trained Inchila, who could provide some sort of boost for the hugely disappointing stud career of Dylan Thomas. However she has had a few hard races recently and coming here less than two weeks after the Oaks is a tough ask.

There are some lively outsiders to consider such as the John Gosden trained Bright Approach. She did not handle the track, did not like the ground and was in season when 3rd in the Cheshire Oaks and we can expect to see a much better display from her today, while Bracelet is surely much better than her effort in the 1,000 Guineas suggests.

However we have to side with the well bred Vazira in this race. She is a half sister to some high class horses such as Vadawina and Vadolphina and she has looked a very useful prospect herself on her starts so far. It was disappointing to see her beaten last time, but that was on soft ground and the step up in trip, coupled with the faster conditions, will hopefully enable us to see her real potential today. The fact that Soumillon is the surname after Christophe rather than Lemaire, is another significant boost to her chances and she should take plenty of beating in this Group 2 contest.

Royal Ascot 4:25 – Ascot Gold Cup

Another race which nearly lifted the roof off the stand last year, when the Queen won with Estimate, a filly she received as a gift from the Aga Khan and did a lot more constructive work with it than the Irish Racing Authorities have managed with The Stand House hotel at the Curragh.

This year’s renewal looks to be quite a bit stronger than last year’s slowly run contest however and Estimate looks to have plenty on her plate, without the benefit of a prep run this season.

The market is headed by Leading Light, who could easily go off odds on and is a horse that pretty much every pundit has confidently proclaimed as being past the post. He won the Queens Vase last year before going on to win the St Leger and his reappearance at Navan last month suggested that he may well have improved over the winter. However backing odds on shots in this race makes about as much appeal as going to a screening of Grown Ups 2 and we would prefer to look for some value elsewhere.

Brown Panther deserves respect based on his form this season, but the ground looks to be against him and Altano is a horse that we would give an outstanding chance to, if he had a more capable pilot on board. With this in mind, we will side with a horse that won on his last visit to the course, providing Johnny Murtagh with his last winner at Ascot. Royal Diamond acts well on good ground and has won on good/firm, so there is no concern about the going. He has some very solid form to his name including his Champions Day triumph and while he looks to have little chance with the favourite based on their run last time, he should improve for that and we are going to support him in the w/o Leading Light market anyway. His mother won at this meeting many years ago now (taking the Ribblesdale in 2002) and the 7/1 about him winning or following the favourite home, looks decent each way value.



Royal Ascot 5:00 – Britannia Stakes

Like the 5:00 equivalent on Wednesday, this makes very little appeal and we will not write at length about a race that we will not be risking too many points on.

However near the bottom of the weights, Born in Bombay makes some appeal at 14/1 with Bet365. The son of ShamArdal is very lightly raced, with only 3 career starts to date, but has shown himself to be a very useful performer, despite only winning 1 of these races. He was unlucky first time up in what has proved to be a very good maiden at Lingfield, made no mistake next time and then ran a very solid race on his handicap debut at Newmarket at the start of May, when he was 2nd to Hors De Combat off a mark of 84.

He has been raised 3lb for that effort, but has loads of scope to improve further and his trainer is very fond of keeping potentially nice horses for these type of races at the Royal meeting. He is worth an interest from stall 26, with high numbers dominating in the Royal Hunt Cup on Wednesday.

Royal Ascot 5:35 – King George V Stakes

This looks a red hot 3 year old handicap with any number of horses have pretensions to develop into pattern class middle distance performers. Of all of them, Elite Army looked a really classy horse in the making last time at Sandown and he won very well despite pulling very hard in the early stages of the race. That was on a really soft surface and his pedigree suggests that cut in the ground will always be preferable for him, but off an 8lb higher mark, if he handles this faster ground he could be very hard to beat.

However it is Personal Opinion who appeals as a horse that we have seen nothing like the best of so far. After winning his 3rd & 4th starts at Wolverhampton in November and then again in April, he stepped up on these displays in his first handicap at Newbury last month. He was unlucky in running and strong finishing second to Arab Dawn, closing all the way to the line after being forced to switch outside horses in the final 300 yards. He now meets the similarly progressive winner on 9lb better terms and we would be hopeful that he can reverse the form.

There are a host of dangers in this race, with Captain Morley appealing as a horse that has more improvement to come. He was sent to the front a long way out at Chester and tired in the closing stages on the bad ground, but he did it well and looks well handicapped off a mark which is 7lb higher. However we will stick with Personal Opinion at 8/1 with four places being paid each way.



Recommended Bets

1 point each way Obliterator – Royal Ascot 3:05 at 6/1 with Bet365

1 point win Vazira – Royal Ascot 3:45 at 3/1 with Bet365

0.75 points each way Royal Diamond – Royal Ascot 4:25 at 7/1 with Paddy Power (1/4 odds first 3 places)

0.5 points each way Born in Bombay – Royal Ascot 5:00 at 14/1 with Bet365

0.75 points each Personal Opinion – Royal Ascot 5:35 at 8/1 with Bet365
Report Kelly June 19, 2014 2:41 PM BST
The Great War did the same thing as a lot of the O'Brien horses this year , well positioned , came at the right time , and faded to nothing .  Reckon that might affect the price of Leading Light .
Report pa lapsy June 19, 2014 2:47 PM BST
Ran as if something wasn,t right,Kelly,legless at the finish.
Report Kelly June 19, 2014 2:48 PM BST
On another note , they just posted the lifetime figures for jockey winners at Royal Ascot . Lester has 116 , Frankie 49 .  Pat Eddery 60 odd .  Just shows you how good Lester was  , need to reflect on some of his stellar days when I was a  fan/punter , might be a long day today judging from the first !
Report callitasucit June 19, 2014 2:52 PM BST
Yeah, he already out to 2.04 Kelly. Had been a strong 1.85. I backed him a few months ago at 4s, so hope all is well. To be fair, The Great War lived up to form, just not expectation.

Backed both Vazira and Bright Approach to win in the 3.45, and had a good place bet on Gosdens. She was all at sea on Chesters turns, receiving little help from the saddle, and finished full of running. Though she has plenty to find, she looks to have plenty of potential, and should relish Ascots more galloping track. I would be surprised if she doesn't make the places, and 2.68 looks a good bet.
Report winsamsoon June 19, 2014 3:04 PM BST
All the War Fronts are useless. Doubt there'll be too many around next year.
Report Kelly June 19, 2014 3:09 PM BST
Cannock Chase rights the ship , beautifully ridden .
Report workrider June 19, 2014 3:10 PM BST
Something wrong with Gers , tailed off again ...
Report kavvie June 19, 2014 3:13 PM BST
first one off it wr..defo something up there..hes better dan that
Report roadrunner46 June 19, 2014 3:19 PM BST
they were all pulling in that race except cannock chaseWink ryan moore at his best
Report workrider June 19, 2014 3:19 PM BST
I'd say they will have to send him to be looked at Kavvie...Those runs are as you say , to bad to be true ...Going to Leop will give you a ring if I hear anything..
Report kavvie June 19, 2014 3:21 PM BST
ta wr ..i could do with something..im backing all the wrong shorties sadly
Report roadrunner46 June 19, 2014 3:25 PM BST
got notebook running in the 5.00 MAGNUS MAXIMUS, CHATEZ (todays ground?) in the same race looks to have a chance as well. gl all
Report gutfeeling June 19, 2014 3:28 PM BST
Stinking so far for me, Might go back to NH betting Sad
Report peckerdunne June 19, 2014 3:50 PM BST
Oh baby.................Happy
Report Kelly June 19, 2014 3:52 PM BST
And now my mother gets me to back the O'Brien winner for her !  No bet for me , but good to see an Irish winner .  But picking them is getting harder !
Report workrider June 19, 2014 3:56 PM BST
Stuck her neck alright Kelly , Sou , left his race in the stalls...Cry
Report peckerdunne June 19, 2014 3:56 PM BST
I dont get people going on about AoB YARD ETC(well i do)but only from their perspective, if they look from a different angle they would see clearly undoubted value can be the reverse.
Report peckerdunne June 19, 2014 3:58 PM BST
Odds on defeats and 10/1 winners.......ffs man..its a punters paradise.......Silly
Report workrider June 19, 2014 4:00 PM BST
Laugh
Report Kelly June 19, 2014 4:00 PM BST
Its hard to back a horse that was 14th of 17 on her last run though , peckerdunne .

Cant figure out the O'Brien yard this year  , and it is normally a good earner here over the years , particularly when Vincent was in charge .
Report pa lapsy June 19, 2014 4:02 PM BST
WD to your Mam Kelly.
Early to say GF but Inchila looked as if she had a fair chance to win,no wonder you,re cheesed off. Chin up and cool head.
Report Kelly June 19, 2014 4:09 PM BST
She only ever backs Josephs mounts , pa . Afraid I haven't her faith on present stable form .
Report peckerdunne June 19, 2014 4:09 PM BST
Not if she has not had her trip and all the other factors(in place)untill then its 10/1 the unknown AoB mount.........
Report peckerdunne June 19, 2014 4:13 PM BST
JoB mount then. People over react dont they when its short etc, but also they under react, then value appears.......imho.....

Still need luck.......
Report pa lapsy June 19, 2014 4:13 PM BST
Me own Mam who is fairly elderly likes a little bet as well Kelly and has a very similar method with backing AOB in big races.
Report peckerdunne June 19, 2014 4:14 PM BST
Mammy knows best lads...........Grin
Report pa lapsy June 19, 2014 4:16 PM BST
Fair enough MRS. Peckerdunne Grin
Report The Gotchee June 19, 2014 4:26 PM BST
Simenon e/w. If back to form, should run well.
Report callitasucit June 19, 2014 4:35 PM BST
He wasn't doing a tap. Gthe feeling he is a lot happier going the other way around. Plenty in the tank I would think, tho it may not have appeared like that. Those laying him at 19 in running had obviously never watched him run before. Lazy bas*ard would be being nice to him!!
Report peckerdunne June 19, 2014 4:37 PM BST
best horse won  a touch easy     Joseph will be handy in the end
Report Kelly June 19, 2014 4:38 PM BST
One of the best Gold Cups I have seen , seldom get 3 or 4 in contention last couple .

Apart from the O'Brien winner , delighted to see Misunited running such a brilliant race .
Report roadrunner46 June 19, 2014 4:39 PM BST
very lucky leading light backers, estimate had the beating of that one IMO
Report pa lapsy June 19, 2014 4:39 PM BST
Great race,yep lazy indeed, young Joe did well to keep Moore in but LL best horse anyway.
Report peckerdunne June 19, 2014 4:44 PM BST
5...... u know   and      9 listen   good man Aiden
Report workrider June 19, 2014 4:44 PM BST
Great result for Joseph and family , brilliant ride from the lad , credit were credit is due ..
Report Santry June 19, 2014 4:54 PM BST
A real gem of a ride from Joseph O'Brien on Leading Light.
Report Kingdom Of Naples June 19, 2014 4:57 PM BST
Michael Winters the best pound for pound Trainer in Ireland
Report by purpose June 19, 2014 5:02 PM BST
MissUniteds run was the most heartwarming sight of the week for me so far.
Report Kelly June 19, 2014 5:19 PM BST
Nobody mentioned Blooms Day so far .  Often a special day  , guess it wasn't a bad basis for a book .
Report Temlett June 19, 2014 5:21 PM BST
Nice 14/1 winner there with Born in Bombay.

Shame I backed Vazira and left it at that.
Report RoyalAcademy June 19, 2014 5:44 PM BST
what do you know about the blogger(s) Temlett?

I will post a thread sometime soon listing all the on line racing sites/boards/blogs that I am aware of....it would be great if others contributed also.
Report gutfeeling June 19, 2014 5:49 PM BST
Thank goodness Fallon can ride a puller, was ready to pull up stumps on the week.
Report pa lapsy June 19, 2014 5:54 PM BST
Very cool from Fallon, WD GF.
Report gutfeeling June 19, 2014 6:51 PM BST
Cheers Pa, Was needed, Be laying Big Break to make it a decent day(Not going through with effort ever) Will just check in tomorrow though(Football to watch, Have a good evening.
Report Temlett June 20, 2014 10:22 AM BST
I don't know anything about his past record Royal Academy.

He has only posted for the first time this week and I have not met him.

I said that I would do some posts on the site for greyhounds when the comps are taking place, so that is where I saw the Royal Ascot post.

It would be interesting to see what blogs you rate, as I don't know too many myself.
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