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loligo forbesi
14 Jun 14 14:11
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Date Joined: 25 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 46 | Blogger: loligo forbesi's blog
Hardly any to be had in the shops in town. There must be massive demand for them. I suppose?

Anyway. I'll be attempting to cast aside a lifetime's worth of inbred prejudice and support the auld enemy with all my heart (or a small portion of my earnings at any rate) later on tonight. It doesn't look like I'll get matched at anything close to 3.0 and will probably end up taking a price closer to 2.8 by kick-off.

I'll also be having a bit on the Greeks. I'm hoping they drift closer to 6.0 though. And let me tell you that that bet provides its own moral quandries - I've always thought them Trojans were terrible hard done by - and I've never had much luck with the horses myself either.

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Replies: 70
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 14 Jun 14 14:15
http://www.kitbag.com/stores/kitbag/basket/basket.aspx


Grin
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 14 Jun 14 14:23
Thanks Premier. But I was hoping to get it before I go in to watch the match in The Celt tonight.
By:
tony57
When: 14 Jun 14 14:27
Laugh
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 14 Jun 14 14:33
i have ordered one Blush no problem cheering for our near neighbours
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 14 Jun 14 16:59
Greece backed at 5.8
By:
Send.in.the.clowns
When: 15 Jun 14 13:35
Irish officially love Engerland since the baked bean visited. Romanians now most hated breed due to beggar activity.
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 15 Jun 14 13:59
I think I might put the jersey purchase on hold for a while. Although, in a pinch, I reckon I might as well just use my Liverpool shirt!

It was an enjoyable match to watch - just a pity that England seemed to run out of puff and ideas and couldn't manage to sneak a draw. The Italians played better than I expected. If they keep up to that level they'll be there at the end. Pirlo!

But my bet still lost! I need a result today or else funds will be diminshing rapidly.

Switzerland to win @ 2.5
Honduras to do a Costa Rica over France @ 16.0 if I can get it (but I'll take 14.0 or 15.0 if they don't drift)
Bosnia @ 12.0 if they continue to drift
By:
pa lapsy
When: 15 Jun 14 14:35
The Costa Rican shirt was the right one yesterday in regards your theme.
England very average,Rooney was woeful, the gamble highlighted on another thread on them was crazy.
Took the Swiss on myself as Ecuador draws with the Dutch,England and Argentina are decent enough,the Swiss also have good results lately.
Seems to me France have turned a new leaf and playing well lately,can,t go against Argentina, so an 11/4 ht/ft db to try and help me own diminishing funds,gl.
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 15 Jun 14 15:34
Certainly, the two Euro-South American clashes to date have gone the way of the locals, but the Swiss in particular should be strong enough to get a result. Good luck with your bets Pa
By:
callitasucit
When: 15 Jun 14 15:47
Doubled Argentina and France. Also backed Higuain e.w at 25s for top goal scorer, so hopefully he bags a couple tonight.

Some day of sport, the hurling should be a cracker. Doubled Cork with Monaghan, so hoping they can exact revenge for their defeat in last years All Ireland.
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 15 Jun 14 16:00
I'm with you on the hurling Callit. Although the whole GAA apparatus is out to stop us ... and poor Anthony Nash especially!
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 15 Jun 14 18:36
Nice result on your gaa double Callit. Well done
By:
callitasucit
When: 15 Jun 14 19:40
Cheers. Wasn't a great game, pretty scrappy. Stop start with fouls n frees.

Hopefully Kaymer puts the golf to bed early, so can flick to the Argie match a bit. Lets hope Messi brings his brilliant best to the table. The Brazilians can see what real class is......Neymar is but a poor apprentice to the Great One.
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 16 Jun 14 15:11
I didn't think I'd be having a bet when I looked at the odds for Portugal v Germany last evening but will back the Portuguese if they drift out to 4.4 again - I mean did nobody watch the Champions League semifinal? HE beat Bayern single-handed! Surely a gammy knee won't blunt HIS genius?

I'm also laying Nigeria although it's hard to assess the Iranian form - they hardly ever play any decent teams - but then the Nigerians don't seem to be any great shakes either.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 16 Jun 14 16:11
Hello Loligo bit better for us on yesterdays games and good stuff from Callit as well.
The German game should be a good one,in terms of a bet myself leaving it go as thought Germany recent results aren,t great while Portugal are playing well,can see why you want to be with Portugal at them odds,hate going against the Jerries myself though.
The US match looks another tough call,both teams beat S.Korea,recent wins for the States against the Nigerians and Turks would sway me slightly towards them at the odds but in all probability will catch up on some needed beauty sleep.
Only bet for me today is the Nigerians at 10/11,agree with your thoughts Loligo but while draws to the Scots and Greeks doesn,t read too well these days could well be enough on what Iran has showed recently. GL.
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 16 Jun 14 16:32
Would it be fair to assume that loligi likes backing the outsiders in these world cup games??
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 16 Jun 14 16:39
Hello Pa

Like you say none of the four teams in the later matches today have done anything recently that would inspire you. But I too might have a little punt on the US if their odds get out to the 3.5 or 3.6 range. And now it looks like I'll be watching Germany/Portugal as a neutral cos those high prices seem to be long gone.
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 16 Jun 14 16:46
Hello CR

Well. I'm not afraid of backing 10/1 shots but unfortunately so far my picks have mostly played like 20/1 and 30/1 shots!

I've worked out some crude odds on a spreadsheet and my theory was that there'd be good value in the first round of games because there's so little direct form between the teams - that hasn't worked out too well so far.

My hypothesis for the second round of group games is that the market will overreact to the early results and I'll pick up a couple of good bets - so as you can see I'm a hopeless optimist in spite of years of bitter experience!
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 16 Jun 14 16:46
portugal 4-1 germany
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 16 Jun 14 16:49
i agree with all that loligo,if fairness you have been a bit unlucky with some of your selections,
at the end of the day its all about value so couldn't argue with any of your bets,Best of luck Cool
By:
callitasucit
When: 16 Jun 14 16:53
Laid Germany here, very very short in my opionion. Also had small bet on Portugal. Nowhere near the gulf that the market suggests between these two sides.
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 17 Jun 14 14:00
Never got the odds I wanted yesterday about Portugal (relief) or the USA (despair). Although Ghana should really have won the late match - and might of done if that No. 7 Atsu had held back on the wild shots and worked the ball more around the box. But all that's soon forgotten as the carnival rolls on today. Once again I'll be mostly backing the outsiders - a pattern which indicates that my odds aren't that all reliable but I'll persist anyway.

Like Iran yesterday, Algeria's form is hard to assess as they seem to mostly play weak African opposition, so I'll be laying Belgium as I can't back the Algerians with any confidence.

I make Korea 1/1 to beat the Russians so any odds above 5.0 are super value.

And maybe Mexico will get a more neutral referee than Croatia did - I'm hoping Bahattin Duran is more Mariachi than Samba. We'll get a better idea of how good Brazil really are anyway.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 17 Jun 14 23:01
Bit of hard lines with Algeria/Belgium Loligo, the Brazilians again looked very average,don,,t think any team should be too scared with playing them.
Good luck with the Koreans, not a fan of Russia outside their own country myself.
Suppose the Germans and Dutch are the most impressive up to this point,i did(you will like this i think) a small bet on the Swiss outright(140) and to reach the final at 38,s,way i looked at it is they should surely get a result against Honduras if even they fail against France,hoping to get a bit of mileage anyway as think they are a bit overpriced.
By:
callitasucit
When: 18 Jun 14 02:01
Brazil again showed how ridiculously priced they are in the outright market. They are nowhere the standard of an average WC winning team.

Spain have work to do to qualify, but if they raise their game and win their two group games to qualify, I would fully expect them to beat Brazil in the last 16.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 18 Jun 14 09:20
Spain won't qualify.
It will more than likely be Chile that meet Brazil and they should beat them,the same if they meet Holland.
By:
db1974
When: 18 Jun 14 10:33
Spain are set to ring the changes tonight against Chile, with both Xavi and Silva set to drop to the bench with Pedro and Koke to replace them (personally I would also drop Costa and play either Fabregas or Villa). I think the heavy defeat to Holland will be a wake-up call for the Spaniards and I reckon they will win tonight and go on to finish 2nd in Group B. They are more than capable of beating a very tentative and nervous Brazil in the Last 16 while there is nothing in their quarter to scare them after that (probably Colombia/Ivory Coast/England). They are worth a bet at 14/1 in the Outright market, although that could look silly at 10pm tonight if they fail to beat Chile.
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 18 Jun 14 14:31
I wasn't able to watch the Brazil-Mexico match so I can't really comment on their performance. There's no doubt that their odds are probably too short - I suspect it's partly due to having a host nation's advantage, which is a real factor but is something that I can't quantify. I'll be betting against them again in the tournament ... if I have any money left in the bank by then!

Toady I'm taking on the Spaniards again (backing Chile at 6.0 or greater) although I'll be amazed if they don't put in a better performance than they did against Holland.

Will also be backing Cameroon at about 6.0.

After the first round of matches I'm down €21.50 on 12 x €10 bets. Not quite carnage but will be heading there if I don't get a couple of decent results in the second tranche of group games.
By:
kavvie
When: 18 Jun 14 14:39
the spain team arnt as bad as the holland result...david villa missed a sitter before half time to go 2 up.if he scored spain could have opened them up in the second half..fine margins etc
By:
callitasucit
When: 18 Jun 14 14:43
I would expect both Spain and Croatia to post comfortable victories tonight, and have doubled the two.

Havent been able to stop topping up on Spain in the outright market, backing at 15.5, 14s e.w and 12s e.w. Could be a painful night if they don't fire!! Also backed them at 2.06 to qualify.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 18 Jun 14 14:51
I'd be a bit worried about Spain tonight, will be fascinating to see their selection.  If you want to back them in the Outright, 'Winner' do a refund if your team exits at the Group Stage.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 18 Jun 14 15:01
^ actually 'Winner' offer not quite as stated...only a pesky fiver refund.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 18 Jun 14 20:21
Chile one up, Spain are a complete mess. Big ask from here.
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 18 Jun 14 20:49
Adios Muchachos???!!!!!
By:
pa lapsy
When: 18 Jun 14 20:53
Looks like it,had a few chances to score early and didn,,t take them,look in total disarray late on 2nd half and too much petulance from them.
By:
callitasucit
When: 18 Jun 14 20:58
Casillas and Alonso have been shocking again. Costa not much better.

BFred have Australia at 16s for the Spain game. They will go off about 4s! Spain will not giv a f*ck about it, Oz will love to win a game. Desire will count for a lot.
By:
loligo forbesi
When: 18 Jun 14 21:38
I hope you backed the Aussies Callit. You could of traded out for a nice profit already!
By:
Ozymandius
When: 18 Jun 14 22:00
Spain will play the reserves vs Aus...prob do better that the first choice team.
By:
neill d
When: 18 Jun 14 22:02
You tried to warn us Ozy!!
By:
db1974
When: 18 Jun 14 22:20
Jaysus, I got that very wrong
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