Australia

Has a fifty percent strike rate.

Only a Group three winner.

Trainer is worried about the ground.

Trainer running three against him,indicative of a lack of confidence despite the hype.

The price is ludicrous.

Nijinsky went into the Derby unbeaten,won five times as a two year old including the Dewhurst and won the 2000 Guineas,started 11/8 favourite.

Mill Reef won Coventry and Gimcrack at two,beaten by Brigadier Gerard in what's regarded as the best 2000 Guineas,no Brigadier in the Derby yet he started 3/1 favourite.

Shergar was a 10 length winner of Guardian Classic Trial and a 12 length winner of the Chester Vase,he started 1/1.

Nashwan was an unbeaten 2000 Guineas winner,he started 5/4 favourite.


I think Australia is a lay and one to lay now,think he will drift and drift.

will surely drift to near 2/1 on the day the one to beat but way too short a lay at 1/1 a bet at 2/1 or above

Golden Fleece started at 3-1 ffs!....couldn't back Australia at evens....better value than Tenby though....

Golden Fleece although unbeaten had won three ordinary races.

His maiden win at Leopardstown was more notable for the fact Assert was a blatant non trier,a feat he repeated as a three year old.

The fact is he beat Assert very easily on two occasions Wildman.....alright Christy might have minded Assert the first time but he wouldn't have beaten Golden Fleece in any event.

I know Christy regards Assert as the best he has ridden and had they met over 12f later in the season...well who knows but i suspect Golden Fleece was the better horse and it pains me to say that.

Golden Fleece looked special in the Derby alright.

I think the horse got cancer,only case that I can remember.

i also think another major factor why its such a silly price is it's breeding,By a derby winner out of an oaks winner.
Was listening to ríshí persad discussing Australias chance today and whilst i agree with him that he's a lay he was questioning whether he'll stay or not

Golden  Fleece , one of the greatest winners of the derby , have a look at how far back he was turning in , yet won pulling a cart ...

Could well have been one of the best three yr old colts i've ever seen anyway......certainly as physically imposing a horse as i've seen.

Asserts Irish Derby performance was incredible too tbf Workrider.

Yes J.R...But Golden  Fleece was superb at Epsom.Pat was incredibly confident...

Pity they were both owned by Sangster......two superb horses.

In case you've forgotten Wr...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loiJU0i_SS0

Yes tremendously impressive , Walter would have got six months if he did that in Dubai now...

.....Christy had the nerve to do it again on St Jovite....tucked John Reid like a kipper...

Some really good comments.

sorry but the distance back to KH in the guineas, the horse's pedigree for the trip, A O'Bs record at delivering them - the Guineas was a strong race, the Derby isn't. Aussie by 3-4L ... should be close to evens if the weather stays ok.

I'd say Aussie RPR of 128, field max 122, good ground - on what they've done, and likely to progress, so 3 lengths.

Something tells me Australia will drift like the proverbial barge tomorrow...

Just read on the main forum Hills going 5/2 @8:30 tomorrow morning,don't know the max stakes,

lad b rok es prices on o'briens will be interesting

Geoffrey Chaucer for me

The 2yo and Masai ran poorly last night in Tipp and not much confidence to be gained the way they ran tonight and then throw in Marvellous and you would have to be a bit concerned about stable form.

Don't think that 2yo in the first finished his race like he looked like he would, and he'd have been pretty wound up you'd imagine to capitalise on the coverage he and Marvellous would have gotten had they both won today. Big day for the family after all.

If you subscribe to the view that Ladbrokes have a hotline to Ballydoyle, Geoffrey Chaucer is clearly the one they are keeping onside tonight (6's versus 10/1 at PP).

GC was only getting going when getting absolutely mullered last time out,
He wins going away tomorrow.

to the poster g hall - not sure u know this but them days are well over ... they are short on everything these days


they are terrible in everything they do - they have not got a clue whats going on out there...and thats been nice about the firm

well lads best of luck on GC  -  I heard a lot of good things about him last year  -  but can't see him beating Australia. If it goes soft, he'll have been great value, but watching the weather now ... not sure it'll be that bad, and if it holds up Australia will run away with it. His Guineas form is rock solid, and more to come. Derrinstown race a long way behind that.

Ah hear listen, it's hardly fair..............................jeeeeezzzz

Won like a very good horse , impossible to crab him after that ...

That was a bit special.

Fair play to all concerned , never a moments worry for anyone who backed it ( not myself , no bet  in race ) . Worth a few bob now given its breeding .

Impressive

Borneo's done his nuts again on the pink button, 'Dawn Approach' style!

All gone quiet from Wildman

Looks like Geoffrey C had an off day where it just didn't rhyme.
After all he had slaughtered Oz in a gallop.
Must be a good handicap waiting for him -but only if they put Ana up.

GC got an awful trip in fairness to him.i'd say there was something amiss too,Was virtually pulled up.

GC didn't look right - will be interesting to see where he ends up - I know they were thinking about the Racing Post w him last season, and expected he'd win it - but decided against ... he's very good, just didn't run his race.

As for Aussie smashing horse

ANY NEWS TODAY on Cirrus Des Aigles ????? - was a little lame after yesterday's win.

Next month’s Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud had been the target but that must now be in doubt.
An autumn campaign seems more likely, with Ascot’s Champion Stakes in October high on the agenda.

No more than a piece of work on the gallops there

And again

there are odds on shots and there are odds on shots!the judgement on that is what splits the winners from the losers.

Australia retired to stud after suffering a stone bruise.
What a lame excuse.
His form shows he was an average Derby winner at best.
He will be no good as a flat sire, although he could make it in the National Hunt sphere.

why will he be no good as a flat sire??

i don't pretend to know much about these things but is he not stunningly bred himself and he has show a very good level of form himself (while maqybe not living up to the crazy hype)

personally i would have thought he has every chance of making a top sire

By a stayer out of a stayer, meaning any progeny will probably need a bit of time. Probably won't get 2yos which is a big part of things for a a commercial operation like Coolmore. If a stallion doesn't get 2yos, they need to be at the Montjeu or Galileo level to remain viable at a high fee it seems.

Also, you'd read that he ain't the most prepossessing looking, I've heard him described as diminutive but I wouldn't know much about that stuff. Camelot was a stunning looking horse, a Sales topper with a more precocious dam side and a massive book as well. I'd go there. They're mad to nail down a top son of Galileo, (Rip Van Winkle hasn't the profile) though so maybe they might throw everything at him to 'make' him, but I wouldn't like to be paying to find out. Similar staying types, which is what he is, whatever they say haven't fared well, Dylan Thomas started at €50,000 and is now National Hunt, Duke of Marmalade was similar and is now in South Africa.

Don't know a whole pile about this stuff either but find it very interesting.

He is by a 1m 4f winner (Galileo) and out of a 1m 4f winner (Ouija Board) both have stamina laden pedigrees,in particular,Ouija Board, who comes from a family full of jumpers and stayers. Australia was best at 1m 4f, his Irish and English Derby wins were his best and most impressive runs. He is not likely to produce fast precocious 2 year olds.
If you remember Dylan Thomas,he too had a similar type of profile and a better Official Rating of 128. His stud fee started at €50,000 in 2008 and he covered all the best broodmares with very limited success. His fee for 2014 is €5,000 and he is struggling to get National Hunt mares.

What they really want is a Champion Miler, the next horse they have that is the Champion at a mile will be their next 'best ever.' They're at the point where they'd prefer a Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner than an Epsom victor, they've plenty of those. The dodgy front legs aside, they'd swap Australia for Kingman, I'd say. The American War Front horses don't appear to have worked out on the track in Europe for all they are smashing lookers. Think they should hit the likes of Invincible Spirit really hard with those excellent staying mares they have to make a miler. Oasis Dream seems to be as liable to get stayers but they were popping up a bit a couple of years ago but less so this year. It will be interesting to see how the Canford Cliffs experiment goes, fast as you'll get, very handsome but light on pedigree, that departure showed that they are worried about putting in a bit of pace.

Whats the story with Canford Cliffs they still have him don't they?

First 2yos next year I think Roar, I think he was a 30k yearling by Tagula so he was pretty much a cheapie. I don't think Coolmore have ever stood anything like him before. I've noticed as well that they've started doing TV adverts hyping the racing careers of their stallions, I never remembered them doing this before and I'd say it might be an effort to get over the less pedigreed horses like Canford and maybe Pour Moi? Get commercial breeders thinking on what tremendous racehorses they were rather than how risky a horse like Canford is at €12,500. he's standing for just 13,750 Aus where they sent the dam of Black Caviar to him.

Don't see any reason why won't make a decent sire...he is obviously bred very similarly to Sea the Stars and like him i expect he'll develop into a sire of top class three year olds.

what will he charge per load? (sorry, not sure of technical term).

80k?....rough guess tbf.

galileo is by s wells out of an arc winner and hes making 50 million a year at stud............this obsession with speed is farcical.............u can have as many half decent stallions as u like standing for 25k but its the printing machines that make u the big bobs...............mr magnier has beceome rich because of 4 stallions................s wells, danehill, montjeu and now galileo..............three of these were 12 f horses so australia has every chance of making it.

I think  STS started off at 80k JR. I've read that STS was a better model of a horse, though. His achievements would easily outweigh those of Australia as well. Would it be a combination of Aus's sire, the machine behind him and a lack of alternatives that mean they might start off at the same.

same fee*

STS was a far nicer looking animal Neil and he is now looking like he's going to be a top stallion..... but if you look at Australia pedigree he's very close to STS....that Urban sea/Cape Cross line is obviously potent....pretty much guaranteed success from a breeders point of view i would have thought.

re Ozymandius 13.27...
There might be another  insider technical term but I think  'service' or perhaps 'cover(ing)' are  used to refer to a stallion's attempt to impregnate a mare.

Would have thought that if sts started at 80k than about 30k would be right for Australia , one was possibly the best 3yo ever, the other was beaten in 2 of his 5 3yo starts, by night of thunder and the grey gatsby, hardly comparable