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Prices from PP
Burton 6/5
White 5/4 (from 5/1 this morning)
Howlin 7/2
Any views on this?
I believe it's one vote per member and no block voting so perhaps not surprising that two Dublin candidates lead the betting (anyone any idea of the proportion of the 5000 members that are resided in Dublin).
Money normally talks in these markets but it's a bit surprising how short the former Trinity SU president considering he is only a TD since 2007 and has not exactly covered himself in glory in his junior ministerial position.
Howlin is a cute hoor and will no doubt play the long game but perhaps not being based in Dublin is a negative considering the volume of votes that will come from the constituencies).Is his ability to get on with Fine Gael seen as a negative or a positive for attaining this position? (as it seems optics are more important than substance perhaps it's a negative). How will his term as minister for the department for public expenditure and reform be viewed by labour members?7/2 (from 2/1 this morning) looks a fair price.
Joan - Positives-Gender+location
Another positive is she is hated by the "grumpy old men"(dead men walking) and by Fine Gael. Such is the deplorable current position of labour for a recovery they will need someone argumentative and they will need to oppose FG policies to attain any credit from the electorate.It seems optics are more important so she could attract public support by disputing the current trend of government policies although her overly argumentative style could bring down the government (unlikely as Kenny will do anything to be taoiseach for the centenary)
The most vital factor is the structure of the voting which is all members compared to the recent Fine Gael leadership battle (with big Phil making the calls,although positions will still be promised and these new potential ministers will have some influence over a proportion of members) and because of the voting structure I think Joan will get the nod despite being hated by the current ministers and a reasonable proportion of labour TDS. Not something I will be betting on but should be interesting to see how it develops.
Burton 6/5
White 5/4 (from 5/1 this morning)
Howlin 7/2
Any views on this?
I believe it's one vote per member and no block voting so perhaps not surprising that two Dublin candidates lead the betting (anyone any idea of the proportion of the 5000 members that are resided in Dublin).
Money normally talks in these markets but it's a bit surprising how short the former Trinity SU president considering he is only a TD since 2007 and has not exactly covered himself in glory in his junior ministerial position.
Howlin is a cute hoor and will no doubt play the long game but perhaps not being based in Dublin is a negative considering the volume of votes that will come from the constituencies).Is his ability to get on with Fine Gael seen as a negative or a positive for attaining this position? (as it seems optics are more important than substance perhaps it's a negative). How will his term as minister for the department for public expenditure and reform be viewed by labour members?7/2 (from 2/1 this morning) looks a fair price.
Joan - Positives-Gender+location
Another positive is she is hated by the "grumpy old men"(dead men walking) and by Fine Gael. Such is the deplorable current position of labour for a recovery they will need someone argumentative and they will need to oppose FG policies to attain any credit from the electorate.It seems optics are more important so she could attract public support by disputing the current trend of government policies although her overly argumentative style could bring down the government (unlikely as Kenny will do anything to be taoiseach for the centenary)
The most vital factor is the structure of the voting which is all members compared to the recent Fine Gael leadership battle (with big Phil making the calls,although positions will still be promised and these new potential ministers will have some influence over a proportion of members) and because of the voting structure I think Joan will get the nod despite being hated by the current ministers and a reasonable proportion of labour TDS. Not something I will be betting on but should be interesting to see how it develops.
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Joan Burton is 65 and unlikely to hold her seat in the next election.
Alex White is the definition of a champagne socialist and another under pressure to hold his seat.
Brendan Howlin is associated with cuts but strangely enough what was once his Achilles Heel would now seem to be a trump card.
The new leader has to be young with some experience,that man is Alan Kelly
He is under forty and has a safe seat,his drawback is he is lacking in personality,he has also dithered coming up with nonsense about considering the deputy role.
Alex White is the definition of a champagne socialist and another under pressure to hold his seat.
Brendan Howlin is associated with cuts but strangely enough what was once his Achilles Heel would now seem to be a trump card.
The new leader has to be young with some experience,that man is Alan Kelly
He is under forty and has a safe seat,his drawback is he is lacking in personality,he has also dithered coming up with nonsense about considering the deputy role.
8/1 for your fellow North Tipp man (location has to be a negative) but I doubt if he has the profile to garner sufficient support from the labour members.
I agree about White and Burton currently being extremely vulnerable as to regarding retaining their seats (if GE was in in the morning Labour would do well to get 5 seats)but surely the leadership profile would consolidate their seats (presuming that they know they will have to challenge FG policies and be seen to deliver something back to the public)but I take your valid point that it's a negative that they're currently extremely vulnerable.
From a quixotic perspective and for optics a youthful leader would be preferred but will this translate to leadership votes.Views from the likes of Spring,Conway,O'riordan and McNamara will be aired but at the end of the day they only have one vote,what is the average age of the eligible voters?What would be your book on it?
I agree about White and Burton currently being extremely vulnerable as to regarding retaining their seats (if GE was in in the morning Labour would do well to get 5 seats)but surely the leadership profile would consolidate their seats (presuming that they know they will have to challenge FG policies and be seen to deliver something back to the public)but I take your valid point that it's a negative that they're currently extremely vulnerable.
From a quixotic perspective and for optics a youthful leader would be preferred but will this translate to leadership votes.Views from the likes of Spring,Conway,O'riordan and McNamara will be aired but at the end of the day they only have one vote,what is the average age of the eligible voters?What would be your book on it?
Joan Burton even were she to become leader wouldn't hold her seat.
Ruth Coppinger and Leo Varadkar should win the first two seats in Dublin West,you then have the Sinn Fein candidate followed by the Fianna Fáil runner.
Alan Kelly is an organiser and will have plenty of support among the members,he has also been a very poor junior minister,as quiet as a church mouse this is in his favour as he is not associated with Labours capitulation.
I would make him favourite even though I consider him a moderate candidate.
Ruth Coppinger and Leo Varadkar should win the first two seats in Dublin West,you then have the Sinn Fein candidate followed by the Fianna Fáil runner.
Alan Kelly is an organiser and will have plenty of support among the members,he has also been a very poor junior minister,as quiet as a church mouse this is in his favour as he is not associated with Labours capitulation.
I would make him favourite even though I consider him a moderate candidate.
As I said Reb if it was a parliamentary vote Joan Burton would have no chance but in this format she is a deserving favourite.
Interesting that Ivan Yates said this morning that there was an awful lot of bad party feeling towards Alex White yesterday as he is believed to have been instrumental in shafting Gilmore despite them being apparently close,Yates went as far to say that there was a feeling among prominent labour TDs of anyone but White (which contradicts his short price and the contraction yesterday).
It will be very interesting to see how it develops but more of an opinion thread than a punting one.I wonder how Howlin will play his hand,at the very least he will attempt to protect his ministerial seat but he could be a major player. I see the opportunistic teaching unions are restating their objections to the proposed junior cert.I don't believe any of the younger candidates of any chance at all in this format,if I was forced to make a book (113% approx)
8/11 -Burton
5/2 -Howlin
3/1 -White
50/1 -Kelly
Interesting that Ivan Yates said this morning that there was an awful lot of bad party feeling towards Alex White yesterday as he is believed to have been instrumental in shafting Gilmore despite them being apparently close,Yates went as far to say that there was a feeling among prominent labour TDs of anyone but White (which contradicts his short price and the contraction yesterday).
It will be very interesting to see how it develops but more of an opinion thread than a punting one.I wonder how Howlin will play his hand,at the very least he will attempt to protect his ministerial seat but he could be a major player. I see the opportunistic teaching unions are restating their objections to the proposed junior cert.I don't believe any of the younger candidates of any chance at all in this format,if I was forced to make a book (113% approx)
8/11 -Burton
5/2 -Howlin
3/1 -White
50/1 -Kelly
Thanks dj. Wouldn't know enough about it myself to venture an informed opinion. On the basis of your book there would appear to be little value in the PP prices (as I would expect).
Alex White hit 5/4 yesterday and then drifted out to 4/1 on speculation that he might not run.
But Marina Fitzgerald said on the RTE news tonight that the guy is almost certain to declare in the next couple of days.
I have no view on who will eventually win out, but Alex white won't be anything like 4/1 if he runs.
But Marina Fitzgerald said on the RTE news tonight that the guy is almost certain to declare in the next couple of days.
I have no view on who will eventually win out, but Alex white won't be anything like 4/1 if he runs.
It seems tomorrow's papers are confirming that Alex White is indeed a candidate.
Paddy Power won't lay much of a bet on political markets, but that 4/1 is only heading in one direction.
Paddy Power won't lay much of a bet on political markets, but that 4/1 is only heading in one direction.
dj had any of these above mentioned any ties to the official IRA /workers party /career bank robbers in your quite honest opinion?it seems quite relevant now that these questions should be raised even in the aftermath of their slaughter in the local government and european elections....the bbc in donnybrook have failed to put this question to the electorate despite the panic on clarity on who was who and who done what when they were alleged members of various organisations????????????????????
1/10-Burton
5/1-White
Richters-Lay off the jungle juice.I need an interpreter for you at the best of times and have no interest in discussing any aspect of the troubles in the North with you.My pivotal contention with SF is their lack of any coherent/sustainable policy.
5/1-White
Richters-Lay off the jungle juice.I need an interpreter for you at the best of times and have no interest in discussing any aspect of the troubles in the North with you.My pivotal contention with SF is their lack of any coherent/sustainable policy.
It's interesting that all of the main candidates seem to be more towards the centre of the political spectrum than the extreme left like Gilmore. Gilmore's fatal mistake was prioritizing abortion and gay marriage over water charges and property tax. They could have negotiated raising the money in a less crude and obvious way which was always going to infuriate the electorate.
The vast majority of people in this country, unlike myself, don't care about issues like gay marriage and are just interested in how much money is in their pocket. Labour made the same mistake as the greens in trying to force laws and policies on people which they didn't want. The greens implemented carbon taxes and the like and then labour brought in abortion whilst ignoring the issues which they were more interested in. The greens got wiped out and labour will suffer a similar fate unless they stop trying to force their left wing agenda on the country. They need to move their policies to the centre like the other main parties or risk forever being a boom and bust party and a glorifed extension of fine gael.
The vast majority of people in this country, unlike myself, don't care about issues like gay marriage and are just interested in how much money is in their pocket. Labour made the same mistake as the greens in trying to force laws and policies on people which they didn't want. The greens implemented carbon taxes and the like and then labour brought in abortion whilst ignoring the issues which they were more interested in. The greens got wiped out and labour will suffer a similar fate unless they stop trying to force their left wing agenda on the country. They need to move their policies to the centre like the other main parties or risk forever being a boom and bust party and a glorifed extension of fine gael.
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