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wildmanfromborneo
19 May 14 16:08
Joined:
Date Joined: 30 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 10,540 | Blogger: wildmanfromborneo's blog
Toe The Line 6.55 Fillies Maiden
She is actually a mare and a bumper winner in Listowel,she was ridden by Derek OConnor that day so as usual came from miles off the pace,this is his preferred way of riding and even more so the septuagenarian John Kiely.
Its also the way Fran Berry likes to ride.
We have a five year old bumper horse taking on flat horses,Go Gentle and Well Hello.
Well Hello finished a mile behind Toe The Line in Gowran but she also finished a mile behind Madam Mo in Tipperary,when they clashed in Sligo Well Hello was an unlucky loser,she lost her action on the bend passing the stands and didnt corner,she still nearly made all.
Go Gentle could be a late developing Dylan Thomas filly,only four so loads more scope for improvement.

I can see Well Hello going from the front and not being caught with maybe a few lads complaining about Toe The Line being held too far off the pace.

Sadlers Risk 8.25 Beginners Chase.
Usually poor races for layers but here we have a flat bred horse in his first chase.
He has only ever won one jumping race,his high rating seems merited on some decent runs in good company most notably at Punchestown but he doesn't win near enough for me and might not be a natural jumper,jockey no longer a plus.

Forever Gold 8.55 Handicap Chase.
Bad race I accept but this fellow is crazy short,he has never won a race of any description.
His current price is based on his second to Easy Vic at Leopardstown,ground was a lot better that day than people realised,its been raining in Roscommon might be slowish ground that's against,is off a six pound higher mark.
Pause Switch to Standard View Roscommon Three Favourites To Take On.
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Report callitasucit May 19, 2014 4:16 PM BST
I backed Sadler Risk WMFB. Busty Brown definitely needs to get his toe in(I wouldn't be surprised if he was pulled out again), and the rest are a poor lot. De Bromhead very rarely sends one out unprepared for the task at hand. Granted they are usually more bred for the job than this lad, but I still wouldn't think he would go the chasing route if he wasn't showing an aptitude for it in schooling.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 19, 2014 4:21 PM BST
Busty Brown should run as there will be cut in the ground.
Silk Hall one that could run well at a big price.

Its a fair point about Henry De Bromhead,a real good trainer in my eyes.
Report by purpose May 19, 2014 4:23 PM BST
Going@Roscommon Flat soft/heavy NH soft issued at 13.55pm Fancy the Busty lad will be able to get more than his toe in if he faces the starter.
Report by purpose May 19, 2014 4:25 PM BST
Whatabout Eddie O,Connell are you going to organise a digout Wildman.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 19, 2014 4:26 PM BST
I thought it would be yielding.

I think Manduros don't like heavy ground can anyone give a more definitive opinion?
Report gutfeeling May 19, 2014 4:44 PM BST
Cliff House had any amount in hand lto, few winners have come out of the Tipperary race, Taken the 4/1, GL all.
Report neill d May 19, 2014 4:51 PM BST
German wildman, I thought he'd be okay but ya could be right.
Report workrider May 19, 2014 6:31 PM BST
Sadlers Risk a lay for me also , I think they might flip flop favs before the night is out....
Report callitasucit May 19, 2014 7:56 PM BST
Topped up on Saddlers at 3.1!!
Report roadrunner46 May 19, 2014 8:31 PM BST
up against some real donkeys in that race sadlers risk, there was some decent types running in that grade 1 LTO. unlucky
Report Kriskin May 19, 2014 8:33 PM BST
WD calli.  It hacked up
Report J.R.Hartley May 19, 2014 8:34 PM BST
Well done Calli....decent trainer...excellent jockey imo.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 19, 2014 8:40 PM BST
The main donkey he was up against was the opening poster.

Callitasucit backing it was a real red flag but one I ignored.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 19, 2014 8:44 PM BST
For the benefit of DJ876 I think someone on tilt is going all in laying the last fav at Roscommon.
Report roadrunner46 May 19, 2014 8:45 PM BST
the form was there for you to see, chose to ignore it and go with your theory that you think its possible the horse aint a good jumper.Crazy
Report dj876 May 19, 2014 8:46 PM BST
Andrew Lynch is having a very poor season JR(open to correction but operating at about 7% for last couple of hundred rides) and his outside rides are greatly limited compared to a couple of years ago.He will be fortunate to hold on to his retainer. Best of luck Wildman,hope you get out but tomorrow is another day.
Report roadrunner46 May 19, 2014 8:46 PM BST
yeah whatever Laugh
Report J.R.Hartley May 19, 2014 8:50 PM BST
De Bromhead's horse's haven't been right all year Dj....and a lot of them want decent ground...starting to hit a bit of form now though....might be worth following for a while.

Andrew's retainer is rock solid tbh.
Report gutfeeling May 19, 2014 8:52 PM BST
Notebooked when it was with Pipe no doubt, Still chalk up the win lad, Top bombing.
Report gutfeeling May 19, 2014 8:53 PM BST
And WD Calli, Called it right, Hope you backed it like a man.
Report Rocketfingers May 19, 2014 8:58 PM BST
Impressive stuff from Wildman with one to run Laugh
Report dj876 May 19, 2014 9:01 PM BST
Why did Russell ride Grand Jesture at Fairyhouse in January for Potts when Lynch rode at the meeting?It has not happened since and obviously different styles suit different horses but I still thought it was unusual JR.
Report Rocketfingers May 19, 2014 9:01 PM BST
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom

Easy money, what a treble, thanks Wildman

LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report wildmanfromborneo May 19, 2014 9:03 PM BST
Stewards surely but they never kick out favourites in Ireland.
Report tobywong. May 19, 2014 9:03 PM BST
:D
Report roadrunner46 May 19, 2014 9:05 PM BST
WD WMFB top bombing treble, amazing Laugh
Report wildmanfromborneo May 19, 2014 9:07 PM BST
Laying is the hard bit alright especially when you do it before the event.

I have to agree though fairly impressive to notch up the hat trick.
Report Rocketfingers May 19, 2014 9:10 PM BST
wildmanfromborneo
19 May 14 21:07
Joined:
30 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 13,842 | Blogger: wildmanfromborneo's blog
Laying is the hard bit alright especially when you do it before the event.

Yes totally agree, you're much better suited to doing it after the race has been run Laugh
Report one last chance May 19, 2014 9:11 PM BST
Ha nice treble that's the way it goes sometimes
Report J.R.Hartley May 19, 2014 9:14 PM BST
It was Andrew's suggestion Dj...he thought a change of rider might do the horse good,think Andrew finished second on him a few times......one of the reasons why his retainer is safe....Potts and his Wife think the world of him.
Report one last chance May 19, 2014 9:15 PM BST
Agree jr  about the jockey change on grand jestur
Report wildmanfromborneo May 19, 2014 9:15 PM BST
Would have got it back laying that Torcello in Suffolk Downs only for that dreadful sound of a bucket hitting brick.

I genuinely hope no one was put off those winners by my flawed reasoning.

How do bookies survive in Irish racing?
Report snap crackle and pop May 19, 2014 9:21 PM BST
Had good punt on saddlers, thought bar a fall it would dot up
Report Rocketfingers May 19, 2014 9:31 PM BST
Fair play to Wildman worried people may have put people off a horse that won at 11/8 after being a morning price of 11/4, hmm don't think there is any need to be worried about that one Wildman !
Report irish_guy_13 May 19, 2014 9:35 PM BST
Leave him alone rocket will ya, no need to kick the man when he's down.
Report Rocketfingers May 19, 2014 9:49 PM BST
Ok Irish but he's not just down he's flat out cold and in the back of an ambulance.
Report pa lapsy May 19, 2014 10:09 PM BST
Well done Gutfeeling and Callit.
After a golf bet that lasted 30 seconds and two shorties well stuffed yesterday,afraid of my life to open my mouth today,hope the damage isn,t that bad Wildman but think it is.
Disappointing reactions by a few people on here,not really conducive for anyone to put their thoughts up on the forum.
Report snap crackle and pop May 19, 2014 10:16 PM BST
Agree with pa, no need to kick a lad when he's down. He made his points and took his chances, we've all been there
Report workrider May 19, 2014 10:22 PM BST
Sadlers won in a hack , well done winners , money came for Meades doubt its the horse it once promised to be ...Wildmanfromborneo put his cards on the table and lost , sadly the gloaters are having a field day ..People who bet like men are few and far between ...
Report callitasucit May 19, 2014 11:13 PM BST
Bad day WMFB, hopefully tomorrow brings you better luck. Unlike a few on here, you state your intention before an event, unfortunately it leaves you open to ridicule by a few gobsh*tes. 

Give me a man who has an opinion and the balls to back it, over a lifeless lemming any day.

Gutfeeling, yeah had a good bet on. Backed it at 11-8 earlier, so couldn't resist the 3.1 and then 5-2. It was as good as over bar a fall after 3 fences. Buster made a poor shape at most, and I doubt he will progress. Saddlers still seemed to hurdle a few though, being quick enough over them, but dangerously low at some. A stiffer track may cause problems, until he adapts. De Bromhead no doubt will work on it.
Report roadrunner46 May 19, 2014 11:20 PM BST
your definitely one of the gob****s n hereWink
Report dj876 May 19, 2014 11:54 PM BST
I would prefer to make these comments on another thread because I can genuinely say that I take absolutely no satisfaction from any punter losing money and I am leaving myself open to comments such as being robotic and opportunistic point scoring.

I would definitely dispute the logic of turns of phrases such as "betting like men" and "the balls to back it",in my opinion over staking and punting on tilt are the the most commonly repeated punting errors. Stake management,discipline and temperament are completely underestimated on here. Stake management based on how much you are behind on the day and increasing your stake because it's the last race is nonsensical,at that moment in time your value in that stake is minimal compared to the cold light of day.

I would also suggest that on average the aggregate net cost of not trading out of distinct winning positions (sports betting I am predominately referring to here because racing in running  is completely unpractical for the vast majority with extreme time delays) exceeds its implied monetary value,obviously you would only not trade out if you believe the odds exceed the probability but I think their has to be a fairly wide discrepancy to justify not trading out at short prices (this obviously varies according to individual temperament).
Report dj876 May 19, 2014 11:55 PM BST
there has
Report callitasucit May 20, 2014 12:09 AM BST
I never mentioned over staking Dj, or if I did or not. I would be very disciplined, but having considered the horse a good bet at 11-8, I had to go in again at the inflated odds. That it was near the end of the day was of little relevance.

On trading out, over time I have judged that I have lost more than gained having traded out of promising positions. So I took the view that I would stop. On the odd occasion, I have still chosen to 'get out', generally in an out of play market, where I have time to consider everything and now think my selection to be a bad price.

I never bet more than I can afford to lose, don't go all in, so have decided that unless something jumps out as being the wrong price midway through an event(which is rare, as if you considered it overpriced at the start, it generally remains that in ones mindset), I will let the bet ride, and what will be will be. It has its downfalls, but it also has its upside. Personally I think when trading out, say in a golf market, which wouldn't have the liquidity of a football match, you are taking what's on offer, what someone else is more than happy to back/lay at. Usually a bad price.
Report roadrunner46 May 20, 2014 12:19 AM BST
you will need another 5 years to catch up with the winners ive put on this forum, must be close to 200 now in over a year.
had to put some more on todayLaugh im now retiring from this forumWink
Report Catch Me ifyoucan May 20, 2014 12:28 AM BST
BYE BYE RR, you will be sorely missed on here.
Report dj876 May 20, 2014 12:32 AM BST
You picked up on some comments there callitasucit in which I was not at all referring to you such as the last race,I was referring to Borneo increasing his stake to an all in on the last race even though he had recognised that it was a weak race. The motivation of the increased stake was due to the daily losses and not at all related to a level of confidence in the lay.

Obviously with trading out I would be referring to liquid markets.My point was the cost of not trading out at a short price (if it subsequently gets turned over) can still unfortunately have a disproportionate effect on future trades. My point although odds are subjective,if I felt an outcome should be roughly 1.2 I would probably still trade out at 1.25 (over generalised/simplified)because the margin is so minimal that even over a larger sample size of say 50 five tick sacrifices (represents turnover not profit).Your net edge on all those trade outs is surely going to be extremely minimal and would actually be a net cost if an extremely in running low defeat impacts your future trades( frame of mind for the rest of the day.
Report Ozymandius May 20, 2014 12:40 AM BST
To save me reading the full thread, can someone please tell me if Borneo has gone all-in bust again?
Report Rocketfingers May 20, 2014 12:50 AM BST
Betting like men? More like betting like an idiot.
Report Ozymandius May 20, 2014 12:53 AM BST
Balls out.  Balls gone.
Report carrot1960 May 20, 2014 12:53 AM BST
wildman , any bets for sligo on wednesday
Report Rocketfingers May 20, 2014 12:55 AM BST
Ozymandius
Date Joined: 01 Jul 11
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20 May 14 00:53
Joined:
01 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 9,607 | Blogger: Ozymandius's blog
Balls out.  Balls gone.

carrot1960
Date Joined: 05 Feb 08
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20 May 14 00:53
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wildman , any bets for sligo on wednesday

Not sure which of the above is funnier


LaughLaughLaugh
Report huddys May 20, 2014 6:52 AM BST
Sad to see the low life vermin taken pleasure with the three selections winning,
Report tobywong. May 20, 2014 8:10 AM BST
why wouldn't people take pleasure huddys , especially if they backed them?
Report pa lapsy May 20, 2014 8:22 AM BST
So you backed them so tobywong? No contribution whatsoever to the thread before the races were run,a pure lack of class from you to be informing everyone at this stage.
Report tobywong. May 20, 2014 8:38 AM BST
never said I did pa lapsy !
Report pa lapsy May 20, 2014 8:43 AM BST
Can only see one person that went against one selection myself and his reaction before/after had a fair bit of grace, Huddys is right,the rest of the thread is aftertiming and badness.
Report tobywong. May 20, 2014 8:45 AM BST
ill accept that apology then so Wink
Report pa lapsy May 20, 2014 9:05 AM BST
Whatever way you want Tobywong.
Dj876 you are obviously right but easy enough to go on "tilt" mode as well,seldom happens but did yesterday to me.
Fancied Cloudy Rock well beat, no probs though had a decent bet,watching the golf,,sky gave Derksen as having a birdie put when in fact it was for par,not a big bet but p1ssed me off,went to get out on it on Richard Green, he was sauntering along until a triple bogey on 15 and beat in a play off.Head was fried and had a bet to get out on Maninero,he didn't raise a gallop and in all likelyhood probably wouldn,t have done him at the odds on a "normal" day.
Report tobywong. May 20, 2014 9:09 AM BST
pa , you were the one that spoke of lack of class , it's a pity you didn't possess enough of it to apologise when you are wrong !
Report pa lapsy May 20, 2014 9:19 AM BST
I have nothing to apologise for, I agree with what Huddy's is saying,you are saying that people are taking pleasure especially if they backed them, only one beforehand fancied one selection, so really don,t get what you are trying to say. You well know what they are taking pleasure in and it is certainly not because they backed them.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 20, 2014 10:25 AM BST
It is a poor effort to put up three lays watch two of them dance in and the final one struggle for a bit but still win.

I got it all wrong but Callitasucit backed and then correctly hardened on Sadlers Risk,Gutfeeling tipped up Cliff House so the thread isint all bad.

There is plenty to learn from this not just to back my lays but as DJ876 says treat each race on its own and don't allow previous successes or failures influence your betting.

I actually lost small money on Sadlers Risk,he was 5/4 when I nominated him as a lay ,his drift was stark and worrying out to 3.9 at one stage but when he won I looked on it as a bullet dodged and certainly overdid the laying on Forever Gold.

Betfair are layer friendly because they know they run out of them,they will always have the lads laying dead ones and they hate them but the genuine layers all seemed to get cleaned.
Part of the reason for this is no cash changing hands,it never seems like real money,you just have a figure in the top right hand side that goes up and down.
Report roadrunner46 May 20, 2014 10:39 AM BST
old pa has no class, goes around acting like his a saint most of the time, biggest hippcrate on here. WMFB always likes to mention my name in threads, have no reason to help him out, did find his reasons laughable and dont think anyone could of changed his views on those races, he had already made it all up in his own head.
Report tony57 May 20, 2014 10:51 AM BST
just shows the sick ness that's inside some, who don't even bet?..Wildman..we all have bad days..you will come out of it..makes me laugh that some who have not got a euro between them come on and take pleasure at a man backing his judgement and coming unstuck.....childish to the extreme....
        rr ive never really paid any attention to what you have posted..i mean no disrespect on that ..its just that I don't follow not books..but that works for you..then fair play...but you really need to tone down the boasting...I find people who need to tell everyone how good they are..usually are very insecure?..tbh I don't know wether what you say is true or not...but just my opinion..nothing personal..
Report roadrunner46 May 20, 2014 10:58 AM BST
where are you tony when other people are laying into others for no reason whatsoever, just stick your nose in when its suits you,
theres a lot of sickness on here and has been on here long time, some of the people you stick up for are the ones that come out
with all the crap. dont read your wht you write, has been said many times you pick short prices all the time and you dont win
backing those prices over the long term, or has most of the people got it wrong and you actually tip more winners than losers.
Report tony57 May 20, 2014 11:07 AM BST
that's fine if that's your opinion rr..as I said I don't hold no problem with you..ive never posted at anytime with you..but ive noticed you do like to boast..a lot..maybe you have every right too..i admit I don't read your stuff?..but I only defend what I think is defensable...but its all about opinions..
Report roadrunner46 May 20, 2014 11:10 AM BST
dont boast, when im constantly attacked, will produce all the correct information to counteract all the crap that has been said about my thread, will take that as compliment hat you think its boasting.
Report RoyalAcademy May 20, 2014 11:11 AM BST
Wildman, your general laying experience here over the years has tended to be one disaster after another?

Finding weak favourites may be a good option but in my book offers better each-way or dutching opportunities.
Report Rocketfingers May 20, 2014 11:11 AM BST
Hilairious thread, there are posts on here that remind me about the final scenes from Trading places where the Duke brothers run around in a frantic manner shouting at people about the outrage of having lost all their money. Laying one horse in a field is madness in races where the overround is sometimes under 100% book then having to pay commission on your winnings means the vast vast majority will not make it pay. I think BF should be used to bet horses rather than lay them for the orsdinary Joe. This thread is right up there with Richters tipping up NY because he met a man in a toilet in Roscommon.

Finally Pa having a go at dj for slating the 'All in' attitude as not being wise is probably the stupidest post ever seen on here.
Report tony57 May 20, 2014 11:14 AM BST
yes..fair play..maybe im wrong..as you say if its because you are defending yourself all the time..
Report callitasucit May 20, 2014 11:40 AM BST
Apologies dj, had only skipped through the thread. Can totally see your point about the trading out, and if I did it for a living maybe I would be more cautious and use that approach. I still bet to win(betting for fun is pretty pointless), but not to the extent where a loss will have a detrimental effect on what I do going forward. So all in all I prefer to let it ride 95% of the time.

When I landed the transatlantic double with Coetzee and Walker earlier in the year, I traded a bit on Walker, as the potential win was much more than the normal payout, and it would have been foolish not to derive some benefit from the position.
Report kavvie May 20, 2014 11:45 AM BST
just seeing this thread since wildman put up the 3 lays.he gave sound logical reasons for laying them and that should be commended.i actually laid the last winner myself as it was a stupidly short price.it won as it happened but struggled to do so.your on hiding to nothing putting up opinions here because a few will slate you if you get it wrong.as a result all the forunm has decended into is a slagging place for a few immature low lifes.i never seen carrot60 on here before.and he comes up with a crass post asking wildman for tips for sligo?perhaps carrot you could offer a few yourself before being so smart ot a guy genuinely trying to promote debate and intrest.i can guarantee if the 3 he put up all got beat there wouldnt be half as many posts..
Report Ozymandius May 20, 2014 11:59 AM BST
You could put up logical reasons for taking a position in say a rugby/soccer market on here and still be savaged if you lose; don;t see why it should be any different with horse racing.

Scouse 'Show me the Money, Have it Large' Tony goes on about other lads not having a euro to rub together yet when challenged to a proper bet his immortal confession was 'I don't have that kid of dough'.

Refreshing to see Borneo for once acknowledge the intelligent points made by dj.
Report workrider May 20, 2014 12:06 PM BST
No so long ago Norman , you were asked to have a bet , like the sap you are you refused , knowing full well I'd have taken you for £50,000 ..So less of the kettle calling the pot black...
Report tony57 May 20, 2014 12:11 PM BST
oz,
   the £50.000 man..who offered me that bet..lol..as we all know is just mouth..i said what I said cos its the truth..i don't have 50k to bet with..the sad thing is oz can't see how stupid he looks as he says he would have that kind of bet...but as he has proved on this site for many months..he has no shame..and also lacks any moral fibre..he accuses me of living off criminal earnings..?lol..he bases this on me being able to support my family ..?..he knows nothing about me..or my financially history..but he does not let that worry him he makes such assumptions on his own low life...
    I will not bother to reply to such childish and sick innuendoes ..again..as blocking him is the best thing ive ever done on this site...
Report tony57 May 20, 2014 12:12 PM BST
don't bother wr..all see what he is...
Report Ozymandius May 20, 2014 12:23 PM BST
Wonks, your 50k bet involved me proving the unproveable.  It was a nonsense.  Even you can get your head around that one!  It was the equivalent of 'prove I haven't walked on the moon'!

Tony has never talked about me as much since he claims to have blocked me.  Oh the irony!  And he still manages to know exactly what I have said Wink

Dn't worry Tony.  Summer is commig...it's a great time the year for the profesional house breaker!
Report workrider May 20, 2014 12:39 PM BST
You were the one who made a statement you couldn't back up with hard cash , in fact I'll take that bet again Norman , you put the cash up and we'll have a little arrangement ..You can have access to anything that might PROVE your case , firstly I doubt you have the cash and secondly I doubt you have the nerve ..No Balls Norman ...Laugh
Report tony57 May 20, 2014 12:42 PM BST
Laughthere you go....
Report kavvie May 20, 2014 12:42 PM BST
im still waiting for my grand too oz..ill you see if rattty is sending it on?
Report slickster May 20, 2014 12:51 PM BST
Ireland's answer to Money Tree Grin
Report Ozymandius May 20, 2014 1:44 PM BST
Sorry to hear that Kavvie.  The Rat is his own man and I don't hold any sway over him.  If I thought I could help I would.

So, Wonks, you are proposing that I rely upon information abut your medical health provided by you to determine the outcome of a 50K bet?   We know you are not that bright, but come on, man.
Report tobywong. May 20, 2014 2:39 PM BST
The last one was unfortunate Wildman but I can't understand the all in lay on it , in that instance I would have been reducing my lay rather than increasing it , maybe as I certainly have learned the live to fight another day attitude from past experiences.

Interesting points on position from callit , I tend to trade from a winning position a lot as I tend to always want a buffer if things go pear shaped, it's the main reason I use this site , but I must begin to take account of the "what if" situations in the future.
Report Send.in.the.clowns May 20, 2014 4:23 PM BST
Fair play for taking an opinion pre race, a cracking treble mind :D
Report Rocketfingers December 24, 2014 11:02 AM GMT
Fgs Laugh My fav thread of 2014, take a bow Wildman.
Report roadrunner46 April 5, 2015 9:28 PM BST
the story goes they all won Laugh classic
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