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pa lapsy
27 Apr 14 10:39
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Date Joined: 06 Apr 09
| Topic/replies: 12,639 | Blogger: pa lapsy's blog
Thought it an interesting card today at Limerick though the ground description of good from a punting point isn't what we want to see with so many of the "form" horses running there have done it on heavy.
Odds on Lord Adare 3.20 should really be 2 from 2, travels well and looks potentially very useful, a race to watch for me as has only raced on heavy.
Sarah Battle 3.50 is my ew bet today at double figures, very consistent think she will handle the ground and a bit unlucky not to catch Do be Doing last time,plenty in with a chance but can,t see her not running well.
Hard to go against Rafi de Triana 4.20 in the beginners on his last run at Mallow.
As much as i like Knock Beauty's 4.50 attitude she is going up the weights steeply and never raced on ground as good as this,Good ground horse Rockshandy is an interesting runner at double figures but probably leave this open race alone.
Gl anyone having a punt today.
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Report koikeeper April 27, 2014 11:07 AM BST
Hard to go against Rafi de Triana 4.20 in the beginners on his last run at Mallow.

Honestly dont know how this hasnt won yet, should have won last time & in a hurdle race at navan
the jock both times sitting instead of kicking on ..on a horse that looks like it wants more than 2m.
would like to see it stretch these... if it kicks on I cant see anything getting past it...GL
Report tony57 April 27, 2014 11:25 AM BST
you have to be worried though koi?a horse with a run of 2nds?..looks the winner I agree..but could find another to beat it..limerick looks a minefield to me..and I wont back any till last minute..agree with pa about LORD ADARE but will be too short for me.., my only bet will be drumacoo in the bumper @5/1..a small bet..the front 2 have been disappointing and I wouldn't back either..my pick run lto was ok but on heavy..so a worry on this ground hence a small bet..
Report Bigwillystyle April 27, 2014 11:28 AM BST
Rafi is the lay of the day.
Report DeargDubh April 27, 2014 12:17 PM BST
Koi

Liz Doyle is quoted on an ATR stable tour re. Rafi de Triana as saying 'He is not the strongest finisher in the world and is one of these horses that is inherently a weak finisher and it's not an ungenuine thing, he just doesn't finish his races well'.

Might explain the string of 2's....
Report newapproach April 27, 2014 12:20 PM BST
I don't think kicking on with him would be a good idea at all, remember his run @ Navan where he looked all over the winner but found nothing off the bridle. I'd say they'll want to hld on to him for as long as they can.
Report koikeeper April 27, 2014 12:25 PM BST
remember his run @ Navan where he looked all over the winner but found nothing off the bridle

it was staying on and closing the winner down all the way to the line, suggesting it wants a bit farther imo.....trainer knows best though.
Report newapproach April 27, 2014 12:43 PM BST
I think a good strong pace to carry him into the race is what this horse needs personally. I'd say he'd have no problem stepping up in trip. It'll be interesting to see what kind of mark he gets, you could see him go well in a good handicap chase if they go a good clip.
Report pa lapsy April 27, 2014 1:35 PM BST
Could be very right there Newsapproach,did think he finished his last couple of races off well myself and only for landing slightly awkward at the last couple in Cork he,d have won,good post by DeargDubh as i certainly didn,t think it.
Maybe it is fair to say he could be run out of it close home by someone,can't have Juan de Gracia on last run, Limpopo Tom had a layoff but will love the ground,decent enough over hurdles.Theatre Mills beating of Bishopslough on good reads well though he is another off for a while.Kilcarry Bridge has a chance if standing up.Rory Anna is interesting on her hurdles rating.
Hard not to see Rafi not going very close still imo, good to read the counter views that he could get done again and can see that now as well,think at 2,s i,d be with him though.
Report gutfeeling April 27, 2014 2:00 PM BST
Small plays on Merrion Row win,Fiery Oscar Win & Izola E/W for me.
Smoking Sun is worth a place bet at Longchamp,Take the top 2 out and he'd be a short priced fav imo.
Good luck today everyone.
Report pa lapsy April 27, 2014 4:51 PM BST
The anti Rafi's were right(again BWS),disappointing, ridden a long way out and Juan de Garcia finished ahead this time. Did think he saw out the race but seems just very average Maybe slower ground but wouldn't be in a hurry to back him again.
Report pa lapsy April 27, 2014 5:21 PM BST
Anyone would think its Galway the last couple of weeks the way the Weld horses are running(3 from 4 today).
Pat Smullen in a brief interview there did say he is very happy with the quality of the horse in the yard this season.
Treve narrowly beaten in Longchamp on her seasonal reappearance.
Report workrider April 27, 2014 5:32 PM BST
And you , modest fella that you are , never mention your massive winner...Cool
Report callitasucit April 27, 2014 5:39 PM BST
Backed The Herds Garden this morning at 10-3 and 3-1 in the Bumper.

How in the name of Jesus did he manage to get beat!!
Report pa lapsy April 27, 2014 5:41 PM BST
You said something last night in a post Workrider and it struck me, was wrong with Rafi but in fairness to the people that contributed today was warned, a good thread with sensible opinions.
Report koikeeper April 28, 2014 8:59 AM BST
Yes. Rafi looked like a plodder, maybe trying it over farther might just be the making of it, who knows.

Thought davy Russell was a bit lucky on Lord Adare, pushed up under pressure to join the leader, then he took a pull & lost all momentum, still got it up though..
Would have made sense to go past, as it stayed on strongly.
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