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lustrumm
26 Jan 14 14:41
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Date Joined: 22 Jan 10
| Topic/replies: 2,601 | Blogger: lustrumm's blog
After that run. That was as good a prep race for March as you will see.

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Replies: 124
By:
Ozymandius
When: 26 Jan 14 14:45
Hardly a prep race...it was an Irish Champion Hurdle.....go and win it. Finished what, a length up on CCB.
By:
Kelly
When: 26 Jan 14 14:46
Think they might be 1 and 2 in March . But maybe in same order as today .
By:
richters
When: 26 Jan 14 14:50
kelly i see mickey linden won the over 50s irish championship 60m indoor sprint yday
By:
lustrumm
When: 26 Jan 14 15:04
Our Connor was not oven ready today as the betting indicated. 3rd run, the better ground, the hill and the Spring will see him past the Hurricane
By:
dj876
When: 26 Jan 14 15:10
I wouldn't completely disagree with that Lustrumm but he will be 2 lbs worse off and Danny Mullins is a negative in a race that will take a bit of riding.Champion hurdle will be a fantastic spectacle this year but not a punting race for me.
By:
kavvie
When: 26 Jan 14 15:10
im on him at 10s and 8s ew..im not totally convinced..it on my birthday so im hope for the best..
By:
richters
When: 26 Jan 14 15:16
it wasnt a particuarly good punting race for someone on here last year either when the they put the festival GOOD THING  THE FLY up as their lay of the year and if that wasnt bad enough told workrider long run wouldnt place in the gold cup......oohhh deer......
By:
dj876
When: 26 Jan 14 15:22
I know you're not capable of reading Ricters but bring up the thread and have a look at the amount of times I stipulated that I would only lay him if the ground was NOT SOFT.(This just goes over your head,not surprising)

I have absolutely no interest in anything you say but did notice that you seem to hang on my every word.You put up 2 horses this weekend Defy Logic and Reizovic but I wasn't sad enough to mention them until provoked.

As for measuring yourself as doing ok because you travel around the country in a Transit,well we are obviously very different in terms of our ambitions in life.
By:
richters
When: 26 Jan 14 15:29
stick to the night shift in topaz guess.....i didnt put up reizovic i merely mentioned its entry into such a race after a lay off and the money that had come for it.......KEEEP GUESSSSSSSSSSSING..........
By:
callitasucit
When: 26 Jan 14 15:43
Richters, I do not know, or have never met the chap, but I would consider myself a good judge of person, and to me, dj would seem one of the more informed and knowledgable punters on here.

He makes a reasoned argument for his selections(before a race). Like the rest of us, he  can get it wrong, but goes about it the right way. And as a professional gambler said to me a long time ago,....Good luck and bad luck generally even themselves out, If you do things right, you will make money.

I doubt your mockings will force dj to change his approach.
By:
richters
When: 26 Jan 14 15:52
callita if you have been reading the postings you will have noticed that dj the guess has been mocking myself,workrider and tony 57 on a regular basis not only on a sporting level but on a personal level and for that matter he has been having a go at wmfb aswell so dont be coming out with that nonsense to me....the man has his head firmly wedged up the inside of his own jaxy with his own self importance and that is clear for all to see....look we all pick winners and losers but to tell people a 4/6 shot is a 1/4 shot good thing tells you all you need to know....
By:
callitasucit
When: 26 Jan 14 15:59
But he believed At Fishers Cross to be closer to a 1-4 shot than a 4-6 shot. I too thought he was overpriced, and backed accordingly. He lost. 4-6 shots lose. So do 1-4 shots. This game is about forming an opinion, and betting on it where opportunity allows.
I don't doubt dj has indulged in name calling on here, it is commonplace, mostly in jest I would guess(I too have lost discipline when conversing with RR,.... though not in jest!!), but as regards him being a guesser or not know what he is talking about, I would certainly disagree with you on that.
But that is just my opinion, I have no gripe with you, and you are entitled to your own.
Best of Luck.
By:
richters
When: 26 Jan 14 16:08
and to you callita and have no gripe with you or no wish to,the only one who will be happy at this post will be the sneering walter mitty ozymandius....but just look back at djs sneering at tonys post when he made a slip of the tongue regarding rubys weight or the remarks he made about workriders paddock judgement,dont worry about dj leaving the forum because like ozy he has on numerous occasions left after throwing toys outa the pram but soon came running back when they realised this place is their lives.....sad really isnt it...grown men yip....but thats what your dealing with.....good luck mate.....
By:
richters
When: 26 Jan 14 16:35
isnt it wonderful the way they log off the minute they are accused of having no lives outside of here........
By:
workrider
When: 26 Jan 14 16:38
Laugh
By:
neill d
When: 26 Jan 14 17:21
I'm on My Tent or Yours e/w at 8's and 10's and I wouldn't swap him.
By:
workrider
When: 26 Jan 14 17:33
i'D SAY AFTER TODAY AP WILL RIDE HIM NEILL....
By:
neill d
When: 26 Jan 14 17:41
I think reading between the lines that was always going to be the case workrider. I think they have been trying to play down MTOY after what happened with Binocular in 09'. Plus the still haven't taught him to settle properly, when that happens that's when it will be lights out for the rest to me.

Wouldn't mind your opinion on this? Straight after Cheltenham this year, I was looking at what the possibility might be of hoovering up some fancy prices for Jezki in the Stayers Hurdle 2015, he could easily go that route and I'd say he'd have a class edge if he gets the 3 mile. It looks the most logical route to me. That is what I'll be monitoring the week after Cheltenham anyway.
By:
callitasucit
When: 26 Jan 14 17:44
He certainly doesn't look to have the scope for fences Neill, so im sure it will be a route they will explore. He may fall in the 'just short of top class' category over 2m, and maybe not appreciate much further??
By:
neill d
When: 26 Jan 14 17:48
good point re his lack of scope Call, something which I neglected to mention. Would surely be a nice one for a trade I think given his rep. He is a Flat bred but the fact he was a Bumper horse is mostly what I'm clinging onto. He looked okay in the Hattons Grace to me and might have appreciated the easier tempo.

I wouldn't worry much about anything around this year but Annie Power could be a serious Fly in the ointment
By:
neill d
When: 26 Jan 14 17:50
plus this seasons novices, but those that stay hurdling are usually of the not quite there variety....
By:
richters
When: 26 Jan 14 17:54
dont think MTOY will have the toe for HF,considering he couldnt beat champagne fever last year,id be more fearful of our connor if i was in the mullins camp,considering what ted walsh says today that the fly has always run 5 or 6 ibs worse than his previous irish outings,on todays evidence and an expected improvement on the run it will be an intriguing affair with OC and HF imo......but early days yet.....
By:
callitasucit
When: 26 Jan 14 17:56
Yeah, Annie Power could be a fly, but going on comments from Ricci, I be pretty sure she will be going chasing next year. Only way I could see her staying hurdling is if she hacked up in CH. Either way, I cant see her in next years WH.
It could turn out to be a very decent trade, as he could mop up a couple of soft 2m4f/3m races over here, without his stamina being seriously tested, at which point, he could be very near the front of the market.
By:
Santry
When: 26 Jan 14 17:58
Whether Our Conor can reverse placing with Hurricane Fly is one question. The question I would ask myself is even if he does will it win the CH?. Does the proximity of 13 y o Captain Cee Bee to these horses in their last 2 runs put a big question mark over the formline overall. There is no collatoral form between the top hurdlers on either side of the pond this season to go on making the CH picture murky to me.
By:
workrider
When: 26 Jan 14 18:08
Cant see Annie EVER going over fences Callit , they would be mad to even think of it , she has nothing more to prove imo ...Neill your take BB was spot on , i think they thought the same way as yourself till kyesterday that is , cant see him making it now , re J , I can see where you're coming from with that , very much in the melting pot , and JP will have all the angles worked out before committing to anything , its worth a few quid imo...Good luck if you go with it...
By:
callitasucit
When: 26 Jan 14 18:14
Ricci stated that the only thing that stopped him going over fences this year, was to potentially have a crack at the CH. I personally think Ruby and Willie will hoodwink him into going the WH route, but what that does imply is that chasing is certainly on the owners radar.
By:
workrider
When: 26 Jan 14 18:28
Callit , i missed that interview , i think they are insane they go the chasing route with her ...Surely they will breed from her , putting her over fences is dangerous and asking for trouble...
By:
neill d
When: 26 Jan 14 18:30
I'd be of the opinion that the reason Champagne Fever beat MTOY last season was that the latter never settled and had little left at the end of the race.

She looks an ideal Arkle candidate to me in that she is huge, gets further but has the pace, plus she has course form.

I could definitely see them going that route as the Arkle is a far more prestigious race than the World Hurdle to most racing people.
If she were to win an arkle, than they could be getting into the realms of Dawn Run and the Gold Cup.

I think she will go chasin g as the usual rules with regard to protecting an asset are outweighed by prestige and occasion when one has money like Ricci.
By:
neill d
When: 26 Jan 14 18:34
I'm not sure that Breeding comes into it as much in National Hunt Racing, especially to someone like Ricci who hasn't shown any inclination to enter that world. He'd rather buy the ready made and enjoy racehorses for being racehorses. Given her size, I'd say she could hard enough call on which stallion to choose. I think her pedigree is German (Shirocco), which means I guess they'd probably go with a NH son of Saddlers Wells, (not too big), but then they could fall between too stools. Bolger is heavily involved in breeding and I'd say there is a reason he got rid of her.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 26 Jan 14 18:50
Ricci is nobody's fool, he won't be hoodwinked by anyone.  But does he want to rattle the relationship by going against Willie's wishes, probably not?
By:
neill d
When: 26 Jan 14 19:03
No doubt he isn't Ozy and if she doesn't go exactly where he envisaged it will no doubt be due to what you have described there.

In fact, in the last week he has mentioned in interview that he is cognisant that Willie has 'a stable of horses to mind' and that he two considers that in what he requests from his trainer.

I would say he is a particularly perceptive individual as if you look at where he came from, particularly where he went to Uni and what he worked in originally... it is not the well-trodden path for someone who ends up in a position like his. He is probably a remarkably bright fella, or at the least brilliant in serving his own best interests.
By:
punchestown
When: 26 Jan 14 19:46
Think the fact That Ruby won't be getting off HF will play a big part in Ricci and Une De Sceaux's owners decision.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 26 Jan 14 20:02
sent you a PM on the subject Neill.
By:
neill d
When: 26 Jan 14 20:34
Thanks Ozy, very interesting stuff. I've just pm'ed you back there..
By:
slickster
When: 27 Jan 14 00:34
Firstly, at least spell the horse's name right. OUR CONOR. One "n". No point starting a thread and not getting the basics right is there? Secondly, the Champion Hurdle winner will not be trained in Ireland. Our Conor? You having a laugh?
By:
Kelly
When: 27 Jan 14 02:42
Richters , knew he was still active , may have just turned 50 . I was talking to him after the Down vs Meath charity event in Newry and I mentioned the sprinting , but gathered he had not done a lot in that regard in 2013. And Pete took him off in that match despite the fact that he was probably the fittest guy out there ( Gary Mason aside , heart attack , stents et al ) . Good for him anyway , Mickey is a gentleman .
By:
workrider
When: 27 Jan 14 13:27
Thickster , thats about as good as it gets for you , correcting someone's spellings ..Like the rest of your motley crew , a coward and always ready to knock , when called upon to show your hand , you RUN with the best of t, off with ya son...
By:
lustrumm
When: 27 Jan 14 14:21
I would call someone out on it myself so no offence taken.

I agree with DJ that Danny Mullins is no help but he didn't do a lot wrong yesterday. He will do for me in Cheltenham.
Yesterday was the day for the Hurricane and perhaps Punchestown again. Cheltenham I say they will look on as a bonus.

Our Conor has 1 objective all year namely the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle.

Have a look back at the race again. He had Hurricane Fly stone cold at the last.
By:
paulie wallnuts
When: 27 Jan 14 14:59
Danny Mullins wouldn't win the county hurdle on Our Conor off 10st......he is one of the biggest liabilities riding.....and is almost unbackable in any race.....let alone a race as competitive as this years champion hurdle.....where every good and brilliant jockey that's riding is on a fancied runner......
Walsh...Geraghty...McCoy.....Townend....Twiston Davies....and then ya hav Danny......with no big race experience as well......
You only have to look at the winners yesterday....and the trainers and their jockeys.....to see what a difference top riders/jockeys make.....and you need both on the big occasion as yesterday proves......theres no good bringing McCoy.....and then combining him with the likes of......hair gel Nolan.....and tight pants Jessica.....
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