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wildmanfromborneo
13 Jan 14 00:33
Joined:
Date Joined: 30 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 21,252 | Blogger: wildmanfromborneo's blog
We started with a maiden hurdle,the usual start the three triers jump off the rest amble off.
No combined forces here betting wise,it looked a buckle between Aklan and Chancol,Chancol fell nearly bringing down Aklan,this 30,000 purchase looked uncomfortable to me but ran on,behind McLovin had started out the back on the outside but switched in,he was cantering throughout,his jockey started to deliberately impede him,he eventually let him go between the last two and he stayed on well,this was blatant to me and far worse than Man With Van.

The next race shouldn't have been run,three horses and a 1/16 shot is not a race,this is the second such event for Un De Sceaux followed on by two and three horse races for Briar Hill
There are far too many of these races,they must be culled.

Third race you got to hand it to Noel Meade,not training many winners but anytime he runs one of his good ones he gets a solo,naturally no Willie Mullins horse in opposition and punting forces combined.

Fourth race a handicap hurdle with a horse 30 pound well in,the handicapper thread listed about ten such ricks which won.we are used to that but what annoyed me was this horse obviously just had a look at Down Royal.
Avondhu Lady in Cork was another to recently exploit a ludicrously low hurdle rating.

Fifth race a three runnerNovice Chase,no runners because trainers don't want to win them,handicappers fault entirely.

The bumper again Mullins runs one that he first lies about in the Racing Post but spreads the word to other trainers won't get beat,Meade withdraws any that could be considered good runs a dud sired by another dud Scorpion,combined forces happily punt the bejaysus out of it.


My luck was in today as I backed Irish Thistle so probably shouldn't be complaining but its choreographed racing and its putting people off.
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Report slickster January 13, 2014 1:22 AM GMT
Very little wrong with your post wildone.........
Report silvergreaser January 13, 2014 9:19 AM GMT
Add in the chronic run of Pencilhimin yesterday to your tale of woe wildman, with 4 places up for grabs I thought only something the equivalent to an act of god could keep this guy out of the frame, running a lifeless race before eventually pulling up.
Report Bigwillystyle January 13, 2014 9:58 AM GMT
Silver that horse got a very hard race in Limerick.  Pulled all the way around there and finished legless.  Wouldnt have been rushing in to back him!
Report silvergreaser January 13, 2014 10:10 AM GMT
I agree bigwill he did pull hard early, and he was tired at the finish as you do on heavy ground at Limerick but hardly legless and the jockey hardly knocked spots off him to hold on for a comfortable 2nd ahead of the fav Sword Fish who had a really hard race.
Report roadrunner46 January 13, 2014 10:30 AM GMT
all those winning favs and 3 winners for wp mullins, and you only got lucky because mad brian fell at the last, and still complaining about irish horse racingLaugh did see find any good horses for the future, that you seen on the race trackLaugh
Report Ozymandius January 13, 2014 10:39 AM GMT
Was the bumper winner punted the bejaysus out of?  Did the price not stay more or less the same all day?  Never above evens, went off 4/5.

Keen Leader rates Sucker Punch, that'll do for me, so in non-vintage year for Meade, presuambly he does too, yet he was left in.  If so, was he only there for the sole purpose of keeping the prices sweet for the 'Combined Forces'?

Alternatively, the winner, an expensive recruit is an ok hoss and Sucker Punch ran a race similar to his previous effort.   No conspiracy.

Or perhaps, I don't understand?
Report roadrunner46 January 13, 2014 10:58 AM GMT
when get around to combining those easy favs that win in ireland with my notebooks, bookies wont know what hit them.
just gathering all the info need on irish horse racing, thanks for the inside info on betting arrangements Laugh
Report pa lapsy January 13, 2014 11:10 AM GMT
Surprised no one commented on Popcorn, he did have a long lay off to overcome to be fair, a major drift 3/1-6/1 and an untypical wide ride by Ruby, ensured yesterday was never going to be his day.
Report wildmanfromborneo January 13, 2014 11:44 AM GMT
The bumper was interesting in that no sooner had Keen Leader posted a negative about the favourite large sums appeared to lay,Keen Leader deserves his loyal following here but I didnt think the bigger players would follow so swiftly.

I am wary about what I say here as I don't want to put Keen Leader off posting but its testament to his success that some of the bigger players are taking notice and skewing the market,Milsean would have been a 1/2 shot without his comments from the night before.

Its the first one I can recall him getting wrong so the new layers were unlucky.

Roadrunner I posted here about Man With Van having a look behind Sizing Tennessee at Navan before Christmas,he went on to land a monster punt at Down Royal on St Stephens Day.
The same team have McLovin,he wasn't just having a look yesterday he was as blatant as I have seen,I don't rate Aklan but McLovin is a lay down in HIV maiden.
Report roadrunner46 January 13, 2014 12:37 PM GMT
never follow other peoples opinions about horses, only one person know of who finds good notebooks, with speed figures.
wouldnt listen to anyone about horses, not my style. everyone has an opinion, seems to me you understand the betting
practices of gambles ect, never concern myself with such things or what trainers have to say, always the horses previous
runs and potential for future improvement, foundation for all selections, prices will be the next stage in my development
this year, understanding of those prices will improve my staking through the year, set my target on buying a new BMW 1 series.
god knows had 100's of winners last year.
Report workrider January 13, 2014 12:52 PM GMT
I liked what i saw of Aklan in the paddock yesterday Wildmanfromborneo , Noels runner looked more of a chaser to me...I think the plan with Chancol yesterday , was to run the finish out of Aklan or make it a strong test of stamina to see if Akran really stayed , they shot themselves in the foot imo , and went off too fast for their own good , Chancol was a little out of his comfort zone to quickly hence the fall ..As i said i was impressed with Willies lad here , I will be following this lad till hes beat ..I was very taken with the winner , plus a lot of these runners looked really well , Agree re Mcloving , he even tried to go up the seconds inner after the last , a real eye catcher ...As an aside Willies was late into the ring , again not a word was said , yet a small lad gets done sat for a similar offence... ....
Report Distant View January 13, 2014 12:52 PM GMT
I am wary about what I say here as I don't want to put Keen Leader off posting but its testament to his success that some of the bigger players are taking notice and skewing the market,Milsean would have been a 1/2 shot without his comments from the night before.

You seriously cannot believe that?

Yes he has a following but that is complete nonsense.

There was less than €2,500 matched on this event the night before at 11:00pm or so. There was practically no activity
Report Arklearkle January 13, 2014 12:56 PM GMT
God Wildman you really are "a quare one". Six favourites win. In the other race the favourite falls at the last when home and hosed and the one you have backed wins and you are still complaining. Do you want the bookie to just send the money around to you after every race day. I hate to imagine what you'd have written had seven outsiders won. I have heard it all now but as they say it takes all sorts.
Report Arklearkle January 13, 2014 12:57 PM GMT
God Wildman you really are "a quare one". Six favourites win. In the other race the favourite falls at the last when home and hosed and the one you have backed wins and you are still complaining. Do you want the bookie to just send the money around to you after every race day. I hate to imagine what you'd have written had seven outsiders won. I have heard it all now but as they say it takes all sorts.
Report Arklearkle January 13, 2014 1:07 PM GMT
I agree with Distant's comments re KL/Milsean. Despite KLs reputation there is no way any big hitter would in any way be influenced by what anyone on an anonymous forum might say.
Report Arklearkle January 13, 2014 1:07 PM GMT
I agree with Distant's comments re KL/Milsean. Despite KLs reputation there is no way any big hitter would in any way be influenced by what anyone on an anonymous forum might say.
Report Arklearkle January 13, 2014 1:08 PM GMT
Apologies lads I seem to be saying everything twice
Report tony57 January 13, 2014 1:25 PM GMT
just noticed lads anyone wanting to go to naas or fairyhouse this weekend theres free entry  with a voucher ..with the rp..on twitter..
Report wildmanfromborneo January 13, 2014 1:30 PM GMT
Must all comments be based on profits,I had a right day yesterday but that doesn't stop me worrying about Irish racing and commenting.

I was watching the market when KL made the negative remarks on Milsean within a few minutes over three thousand pounds appeared trying to lay Milsean at 2.1,I don't know if it was matched or not but these figures are unusual the night before.

Betfairs problem will always be a lack of layers,the in the know individual layers always does his laying furtively and will always be around but the general layer gets cleaned out and doesn't last long.

Workrider Aklan surely failed the vet to cost only 30,000 presumably for his wind,I haven't seen him but going on that run I don't think you will see much more of him.
Report tony57 January 13, 2014 1:42 PM GMT
im not sure your right there Wildman?..mullins has the best contacts around..there are still some good buys for ok money out there?..but as ive said..im not sure...but the way he run to me he looked to be finding more after the last and on that ground?
Report wildmanfromborneo January 13, 2014 1:51 PM GMT
Aklan is a well bred 110 rated flat horse that stays were he sound you would expect him to go for between a hundred and two hundred grand.
He gets sold for only thirty grand suggests to me there was something wrong.

The second favourite fell McLovin patently didn't try,lots of others having a look yet Aklan looked in trouble to me just before the home turn and I think he won't win again.
Report tony57 January 13, 2014 1:54 PM GMT
as I said wildman..im not sure..you may be right..
Report punchestown January 13, 2014 1:57 PM GMT
McLovin ride suspect alright,might not have won but would have been nice to see a shake of the reins at least in the straight before the run in,notice the winner only ever run on easy ground so "Festival ground" might not suit.
Report dj876 January 13, 2014 3:33 PM GMT
Wildman after getting carried away here in his attempt to lump praise on a worthy poster.

He doesn't honestly believe that the professionals that he perceives to be part of the combined forces would be influenced by an anonymous poster to an extent that an SP would vary from 1/2 to 4/5.

It is stretching it a bit to suggest that they would value the opinion of a poster on an anonymous forum (particularly when they don't get on)over their first hand information.

For a man that prides himself on his accurate reading of multi-faceted markets,it's remarkable that he doesn't see what most likely happened.
Report workrider January 13, 2014 5:06 PM GMT
I never read  about him failing the vet tbh Wildmanfromborneo , but yesterday he looked well , jumped well , apart from the last first time round , if he only cost 30,000 those lads have got themselves a bargain imo ..What was really nice yesterday , was ,  instead of all the big owners on the podium , it was ,  for want of a better word , mostly the little man ..A few syndicates included ...
Report paulie wallnuts January 13, 2014 5:32 PM GMT
just a few points here to a few people....
Wonks.....chancol was in the driving seat in the first when he fell....I backed him and wouldn't have minded increasing my bet 5 fold.....the winner had made a mistake and struggled to win afterwards.....chancol was odds on when he fell....and justifiably so.....in my humble opinion chancol would have bolted up.....
Wildman.....I know for certain that some of the "combined forces" don't rate so called pointing judges at all.....they reckon they wouldn't know if they had enough eaten.....and for you to think that they would be influenced by anybody here is fanciful to say the least....
And lastly to mclovin.....that thing..... although admittedly was a bad case yesterday.....is not worth a squirt of a nanny goats pisss.....that was an unimaginably bad race....he tried against ringaree rosie on his previous run....and was beat in about 6 points.....hes very very ordinary and will find winning any race difficult.......
Report wildmanfromborneo January 13, 2014 5:41 PM GMT
Dj876 you say he is an anonymous poster and then you say they know him,but thats neither here nor there.

I have never claimed to be an expert on anything,I view this forum as a place to discuss.
I am spancilled by my lack of computer skills,I believe you can see what was matched on races,I would be very interested in the facts and figures of that bumper,strange figures came up to lay I don't know if they were matched or not but someone was keen to lay,there was sustained opposition to this horse throughout Sunday.

Whilst I accept that these gentlemen are good at what they do and make plenty,I don't agree they can't be swayed by the comments of a point to point expert,they also do some silly things rarely admittedly.

Milsean was as impressive a bumper winner as you will see,he did it on a proper track,Bonzo Bings Leopardstown run is solid form yet is murdered by 8 lengths.
There may have been bad word from Mullins but apart from the usual nonsense he writes " hope he will be there at the business end of the race " I heard none then or since.

Maybe someone with a knowledge of Betfair markets could help us by giving some analysis of that market from Saturday night on.
Report Ozymandius January 13, 2014 5:47 PM GMT
I have never claimed to be an expert on anything,  Not that that ever stops you as presenting rumour, conjecture and uninformed guesswork as FACT.
Report wildmanfromborneo January 13, 2014 5:49 PM GMT
Funnily I think Aklan is a dud and I too had no doubt the winner fell.
I didnt know McLovins point to point form but felt he just didnt stay in that Ayr race,you have made me pause for thought which is a good thing.
Three horse tried in that race,Aklan Chancol and Killiney Court.
Report paulie wallnuts January 13, 2014 5:56 PM GMT
Im not saying Aklan is a dud....if he is any good at all....it will be when the ground is good.....id say the jury is very much out....he laboured on the ground from early on yesterday.....
Mclovin may be a 2m horse but hes still ordinary....
Report dj876 January 13, 2014 6:00 PM GMT
http://www.timeform.com/free/

Just type in the above address and press enter will give you access to limited free information.
To copy and paste the link,put your cursor before link,hold in left hand button on mouse and drag across-this should highlight the link,release and then press right hand button and click copy with left button,go to google and press right hand button,then click paste for link.
Not being smart but if you can navigate this site,Google should be no problem for you.

The bet referred to on Saturday night was not matched,it was a shower and actually contradicts your view of what happened.
Nothing unusual about the volume traded on the bumper and not surprisingly Milsean always traded less than BSP in running.

Chancol was not matched at odds on at any stage yesterday,lowest it touched was evens.

I think you should admit that your suggestion that the SP on Mlisean would have been 1/2 rather than 4/5 because of what KL posted on here was ridiculous?
Report wildmanfromborneo January 13, 2014 6:06 PM GMT
Ozymandius its me expressing an opinion,I think Aklan is no use that's not a fact its my opinion.
Report tony57 January 13, 2014 6:08 PM GMT
sorry to go off topic lads..but apparently that storm that killed a few of the mullins stores horses the other night night has hit one of supremes better mares..ballerina won't race again..hurt in some way..
Report Ozymandius January 13, 2014 6:14 PM GMT
Bornneo, can you not get one of the grandkids to give you a 20 minute tutorial on the internet?

Even the District Nurse, next time she calls, would walk you through the basics.
Report one last chance January 13, 2014 6:31 PM GMT
Haven't read tru all the thread but ur wrong again on the bumper
Report workrider January 13, 2014 6:44 PM GMT
Tony , what happened at closutton...?
Report dinglemick January 13, 2014 6:51 PM GMT
read yesterday workrider that 3 of his young horses were killed at home .... Seems there was a lightening storm on saturday afternoon and some of the young horses got frightened in the storm and got loose ..one bolted into a tree and was killed two others had to be put down after getting injured while loose
Report DeargDubh January 13, 2014 6:56 PM GMT
Link Gents. http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/champion-trainer-mullins-loses-...
Report workrider January 13, 2014 7:25 PM GMT
Thanks lads will have a look soon..
Report pa lapsy January 13, 2014 9:14 PM GMT
Can,t comment on the previous night,s exchange activity,from what i seen of it on the day Milsean was between 1.95 and 2.10 most of the day,money came late and last price i seen very shortly after the off was 1.78,not quite as dramatic as the previous Navan bumper thread but imo fairly significant.
Sorry for connections of horses lost in that accident.
Report redbait January 13, 2014 9:28 PM GMT
Racing is the easiest game in the world when hindsight is applied so liberally!
Report kingkauto January 13, 2014 9:29 PM GMT
What about the drift on Sucker Punch? The morning markets had him 3/1 or 10/3 in a place. During the day this hardened into 11/4 or 5/2 in most places before drifting to 7/2 before the off. Milsean on the other while not heavily punted looked solid in the market
Report Ozymandius January 13, 2014 9:47 PM GMT
I would have thought the fact so many favourites had won during the day would help contract the price of the strong fav in the final race as shops lay off their liabilities.
Report Ozymandius January 13, 2014 9:48 PM GMT
as in contingent liabilities on accumulator bets.
Report dj876 January 13, 2014 9:57 PM GMT
Jesus it's hard to credit the basic lack of understanding of markets on here and  calling even money to 1.88 (BSP) or 1.80 (ISP) a significant gamble is laughable.
Report The Gotchee January 13, 2014 10:11 PM GMT
You are very easily upset.Shocked
Report pa lapsy January 13, 2014 10:18 PM GMT
It is still a 20% swing, 2.10-1.88 or evens to 4/5,never for once said it was a wholesale gamble and for you using my words and laughing(significant) isn,t right either, maybe the word i should have used is well backed, no need to swear about it.
Report dj876 January 13, 2014 10:36 PM GMT
My point is perfectly illustrated.
Evens to 4/5 is a 5.56% swing not a 20% swing,hope this helps.
Report The Gotchee January 13, 2014 10:40 PM GMT
You are going from decimals to fractions?
Report dj876 January 13, 2014 10:44 PM GMT
I am using probability,how else would you calculate a swing in odds??
Report pa lapsy January 13, 2014 10:44 PM GMT
Don,t know where you got that, the way i,m looking at it is if i had a ton at evens i,d get a ton back,if i had a ton at 4/5 i,d get 80 back.
Report dj876 January 13, 2014 10:56 PM GMT
That is the percentage change in the profit and not the percentage change in odds.HTH
Report pa lapsy January 13, 2014 11:02 PM GMT
So what you are saying is if the odds change from evens to 4/5,it is a 5.56% swing? I live and learn.
Report kavvie January 13, 2014 11:04 PM GMT
dj are you on something?as pa says its a ton or 80..a 20% swing..20 yoyos less..this is embarrassing !!
Report dj876 January 13, 2014 11:08 PM GMT
Even money represents a probability of 50% and 4/5 represents a 55.56% so equates to a change of 5.56%

Similarly 100/1 represents a probability of 1% and 33/1 represents a probability of 2.94%

A change of 1.94%,think about it logically,it couldn't be 67% change in odds.
Report dj876 January 13, 2014 11:09 PM GMT
Kavvie a change in odds is very different to a change in profit.
Report Bigwillystyle January 13, 2014 11:12 PM GMT
Wildman Killiney Court was not a trier. That run was for the benefit of the handicapper after a few eye catching runs. Short of work and blast off in front. Blow up three out. Job done
Report Distant View January 13, 2014 11:19 PM GMT
100% agree with that Bigwillystyle. I thought he was lucky to get away with the ride the last day at Leopardstown and this smacked of a cover up job. He will not get a mark although he may not try first time with him then either. Even Brave Inca was not supposed to win off 95 first time up, but Cash could not do his job right and the horse was simply too well handicapped for lack of conditioning or application of brakes to work.
Report wildmanfromborneo January 14, 2014 11:01 AM GMT
My recollection of Brave Inca is entirely different Distant View,three runs down the field in maiden hurdles yielding a ludicrous low mark,then two wins in bumpers followed by a massive gamble in a Fairyhouse handicap hurdle,followed up by a repeat performance in a Navan handicap hurdle.

Bookmakers that own horses nearly always turn out the hookiest of them all.

There was a non runner in Milseans race so the money put up at 2.10 the night before if matched would show up at a lower price.
That money was put up amateurly,this could have been a deliberate ploy but I haven't seen this before so doubt it,somebody was definitely influenced by the negative comments on here.

The good punters need layers,they need new layers as do Betfair.
Report Distant View January 14, 2014 11:09 AM GMT
He had a ridiculous mark when he went over hurdles alright, but I am not sure about this massive gamble.

Any fool could see that he was well handicapped over hurdles and he was a short price throughout the day. Not sure exactly what price he opened.

However he was vastly undercooked that day and was very unimpressive before looking much more of a high class prospect the next day against Georges Girl.
Report wildmanfromborneo January 14, 2014 11:19 AM GMT
I think he ended up around evens,I can't remember him being unimpressive he carried his penalty and landed another big punt at another short price in Navan,the big punters didnt think he was unimpressive at Fairyhouse.
Report DECALEC January 14, 2014 3:15 PM GMT
wildmanfromborneo
14 Jan 14 11:19
Joined:
30 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 12,674 | Blogger: wildmanfromborneo's blog
I think he ended up around evens,I can't remember him being unimpressive he carried his penalty and landed another big punt at another short price in Navan,the big punters didnt think he was unimpressive at Fairyhouse.I WAS IN FAIRYHOUSE THAT DAY AND MY WAS TALKING TO 1 OF THE OWNERS WHO PUT US OFF BACKING ITAngrySad
Report DECALEC January 14, 2014 3:15 PM GMT
MY MATE SORRY
Report Ballhopper January 17, 2014 11:44 AM GMT
Some reasonable observations, but well wide on the bumper. Sucker Punch a very expensive purchase, Nina got serious a long way out, kept at it but no response.
Report irishbookmaker January 17, 2014 9:17 PM GMT
Dj it was a 20% swing in that horses price and a 5% swing in the overall book so maybe both of ye were right/wrong...
Report dj876 January 17, 2014 9:36 PM GMT
Good Evening irishbookmaker,

So what percentage would you calculate as the change in odds for example from 2/1 to 1/3?
Report poorpup January 17, 2014 9:55 PM GMT

Jan 17, 2014 -- 3:36PM, dj876 wrote:


Good Evening irishbookmaker,So what percentage would you calculate as the change in odds for example from 2/1 to 1/3?


41.67

Report dj876 January 17, 2014 10:02 PM GMT
Yes I would agree with that poorpup,what swing would you calculate Evens to 4/5 as?
Report poorpup January 17, 2014 10:05 PM GMT

Jan 17, 2014 -- 4:02PM, dj876 wrote:


Yes I would agree with that poorpup,what swing would you calculate Evens to 4/5 as?


5.56

Report poorpup January 17, 2014 10:06 PM GMT
or 5.555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555
Report pa lapsy January 17, 2014 10:13 PM GMT
Alright accept ye are right there(was going to say something completely out of the ballpark in regards the 2/1-1/3 but never mind)
So is evs to 4/5 well backed or not Poorpup? Maybe middle of the road backed but not excessively might be the answer.
Very possible the same question could be asked at 4.02 tomorrow again.
Report dj876 January 17, 2014 10:17 PM GMT
Pa wasn't making the point to you at all,it was to irishbookmaker.

Kilultagh Vic will be well backed tomorrow because of the form in the book and not because of the combined forces!!
Report pa lapsy January 17, 2014 10:30 PM GMT
I know you weren,t but you cost me a sleepless few hours the last night trying to get my head around it, did get what you were saying in theory but very alien in the mindset for me to categorize it so.
Yep it is in the formbook,still the Silver Navan bumper thread was documented and honestly whether right or wrong there is credence to it in my mind.
Report dj876 January 17, 2014 10:39 PM GMT
Pa,there is an obvious connection between the stables but some have vivid imaginations and state theories as fact because it makes for a better reading.
It's not long ago that we were reading about Meade and Mullins avoiding each other in Bumpers,what is it now 13 of the last 15 bumpers where Noel Meade has had runners that he has faced a a Willie Mullins opponent.There has to be some balance presented and objective opinions or the Dick Francis novels would get completely out of hand.
Report pa lapsy January 17, 2014 10:56 PM GMT
Really don,t think it is for the reasons you stated on your first sentence,more likely a strong belief in what he is saying,the avoidance with each other was supposed to be up to Christmas. WM as you said previously shut his stables down in the Autumn so really isn,t fair to say either this year,though personally thought there was a bit of avoidance myself(sept,oct particulary)
Again as you say there is a connection i,m not sure enough about it to make a definitive statement.
Report Vubiant January 17, 2014 11:41 PM GMT
How is the percentage change in odds from 2/1 to 1/3 estimated to be 41.67% . Just curious to see the calculation.
I thought it was 166.67 %.
Report dj876 January 17, 2014 11:48 PM GMT
2/1 equates to a probability of 33.33%
1/3 equates to a probability of 75.00%
                                41.67%

How would you calculate it Vubiant?
Report Vubiant January 18, 2014 12:17 AM GMT
My approach was to say 2/1 equals 200 to 100 or 200 per cent.
1/3 equals 33 1/3 to 100 or 33 1/3 per cent.
The difference is therefore 200 minus 33 1/3 per cent i.e. 166 2/3 per cent.

I'm not claiming any special mathematical expertise !
Report neill d January 18, 2014 12:20 AM GMT
Know a fella who was flying it in a traders interview for a bookmaker and failed it on this stuff. Asked him to price a hypothetical race to 120% and he couldn't do it.

Priced it kind of Ad hoc off the top of his head as he knew what the shape of it should be, but they could see he was 'guessing', he was only out a little....silly to miss it over something like that.
Report dj876 January 18, 2014 12:32 AM GMT
I believe that you're calculating the change in potential returns and not the change in odds Vubiant.

In my opinion a change in odds can't be more than 100%.

Neil D,he should have just said 6 4/1 shots(It can't have been PP,margin is too low).
Report Vubiant January 18, 2014 12:35 AM GMT
Yes -I think the difference is that the 41.67 change refers to a market whereas I was calculating the change directly in isolation.
Since the discussion centred on a market I presume that 41.67 is the correct figure.
Report neill d January 18, 2014 12:58 AM GMT
I could be out on the percentage DJ as it was a few years ago now, but it was very interesting... I remember him saying something like the hypothetical race being a 21f chase in heavy ground around Ascot (basically the Ascot Chase) and  I recall he had to price it up with the likes of Masterminded, Sommersby, Forpadytheplasterer and a few more from that vintage in it. He couldn't complain too much about the subject matter of the interview anyway.
Report Tolmi January 18, 2014 6:21 PM GMT
I'd have to disagree in that I think you can get a change in odds which exceeds 100% but it depends on the way you express the odds.The common definition of odds is the probability of an event occurring against the probability of it not occurring.In racing the odds are normally expressed with the probabitity of an event not occurring expressed first in the ratio.
Taking odds of 2/1 as an example I would contend that an increase to 6/1 is an increase of 200% in the odds .It is not possible to decrease odds by more than a 100%.This is similar for example to buying a share for €10.A decrease in price to zero is a loss of 100% but an increase in price to €30 is a 200% increase.
Most posters here in my view are expressing odds as a % of a 100% book which is the inverse of the traditional method used in racing.for example when I have a bet I say I backed it at 2/1 not at .3333.I think any change in odds using the % of book method should be expressed using the original % as the denominator not the 100%.
Report dj876 January 18, 2014 6:48 PM GMT
Good evening Tolmi,

"It is not possible to decrease odds by more than  100%"

How would you quantify the percentage change when a price contracts from 2/1 to 1/3 as discussed above?

I think applying probability to measure the significance of a gamble is logical.
Report Tolmi January 18, 2014 7:44 PM GMT
I had started a long and elaborate explanation which when I read back didn't make sense!!I have now confused myself..I'm just heading out to dinner but I will come back to you tomorrow when my thought process is clear.From a position where I thought I was long odds on to be making sense I am now odds against!!A big % change!!
Report dj876 January 18, 2014 7:46 PM GMT
Using your process would the answer be 83.33%??
Report Tolmi January 19, 2014 11:59 AM GMT
Yes that would b correct....(2/1-1\3)÷2.

I think the difference is caused by you using the 100% of the book as your starting point whereas I am using the % change in the odds as expressed normally.

As for a decrease of in excess of 100% not being possible using my definition this would be correct when you are expressing your figure as a % of a positive number when zero is the minimum return.

I do not use % change in odds for any purpose myself(maybe subconsciously) but surely in order for your method to be strictly accurate you would have to adjust for the overround in the book.For example a price change in a 110% book would be different in % terms to one in a 170% book?
Report dj876 January 19, 2014 1:00 PM GMT
No the overround isn't relevant in determining a percentage change in odds but is obviously extremely relevant for determining value.

      Race 1   Race 2     A is backed into even money,this is a 10% change in odds in both races but the O/R in race 1 changes to 110%
A       6/4      6/4      an the O/R in race 2 changes to 125%.
B       4/1      3/1
C       4/1      3/1
D       4/1      3/1
0/R =  100%     115%

        Race 1   Race 2
A       EVS      EVS
B       4/1      3/1
C       4/1      3/1
D       4/1      3/1
O/R =   110%     125%

Perhaps this link will help to clarify  http://gttips.co.uk/betting-guides/odds-comparison-table-percentage-implied-...
Report dj876 January 19, 2014 1:01 PM GMT
Explanation beneath the table
Report Tolmi January 19, 2014 1:31 PM GMT
In my view the % change in something has to be expressed in relation to the starting point ...as in 2/1 in my example.You are relating it to the change within a 100% book which in my opinion is a different expression.
As I stated earlier I think you have to use the start point as the divisor in you equation.
Report dj876 January 19, 2014 1:41 PM GMT
100% book is irrelevant.What does 2/1 mean?

2 Unfavourable outcomes against one favourable outcome which is a 1 in 3 chance.
Report Tolmi January 19, 2014 1:51 PM GMT
Of course its relevant.You are converting odds into probabilities which equal 100%.

In my book if something changed in price from 2/1 to 4/1 its odds have doubled which is a 100% increase in price.If a share price changes from €10 to €20 its price has doubled and is expressed in the markets as a 100% increase.If it drops in value to €5 it has halved in price or dropped 50% in price.

Any % change has to be expressed in relation to your start point not anything else.
Report dj876 January 19, 2014 1:54 PM GMT
I'll have to leave it there with you Tolmi.

"While the tv commentators may cry, ‘and the gamble in this race has been backed from 100/1 to 33/1′, we now know that it’s actually less than a 2% move (from 0.99% to 2.94%). A far more significant move would be if a horse was backed from 6/4 to 5/4, a move of nearly 4.5%"
Report Tolmi January 19, 2014 2:02 PM GMT
I'm not knocking your method but I don't think you are calling it correctly as a % change on odds that's all.What you are calculating is a % change but not the  change in odds.Think about it logically ...if you are calculating the % change in anything in any walk of life you have to use the starting position as the divider in you calculation.You are not using it.
Report The Gotchee January 19, 2014 2:35 PM GMT
You are wasting your time trying to argue with dj876. He is always right, even when he is wrong.
Report Tolmi January 19, 2014 2:39 PM GMT
Not really arguing..just putting up an alternative argument...need to keep the brain ticking over until my next joust with silver!!
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