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08 Jan 14
12:26
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Date Joined:
27 Sep 11
Two relatively short priced favourites this week, one of which looks worth backing, the other I wouldn't touch at the price.
I backed Adam Scott last week, and considering he played average, and putted worse, it was quite a feat that he ended up in a share of 6th. I would be prepared to forgive him that laboured display, as he probably took his eye off the ball after an arduous home campaign late in the year. He should be cherry ripe again this week, and having shown his ability to perform around here with a 2nd in 2009, and the distinct lack of strength in depth in this contest, the 8s in Powers with 6 places looks a bet worth having.
Another who I backed last week was Harris English, and he again is getting a share of the stake money. After 9 holes last week, English was struggling to come to terms with the layout, and languished in 29th of the 30 man field. From there to the finish line, there wasn't many better than him. Having had two previous sighters here, we can expect a quicker start, and with winning form on similar tracks, I am not deserting him this week, and remain convinced he will have a big year.
Brian Gay also performed well in the 1st event of the new year, and should receive extra credit, as that layout would have been totally the opposite of what he needs. He was playing his second shots from a different stratosphere to the likes of Dusty Johnson and Jordan Spieth, yet produced a weekend performance that belied his short hitting. He should go very close on this track.
Carl Petersson is one of them players I don't like backing, as I think he is a bit of a choker, but he has won, and at 100-1 he is worth risking. He has some good form around here, albeit inconsistent, but if trends are anything to go by, this should be a good one, as so far he has always followed a bad performance with a decent one the following year. There are plenty of players at shorter prices that have far less chance than the Swede.
Charles Howell absolutely loves this place, but I have swore never to back the bottling bol*ix outright again. He will never win. But the evens on offer for top 20 is like taking candy off a baby, and should be backed accordingly. Evens on English to also nail a top 20 looks worth backing too.
3pts e.w Adam Scott 8-1(6 places)
1.1pt e.w Harris English 25-1
0.6pt e.w Brian Gay 40-1(6 places)
0.3pt e.w Carl Petersson 100-1
12pt C Howell Top 20
6pt H English Top 20
In the Volvo, I cant have Charl Schwartzel at such a short price. Yes it is a limited field, and he is the most likely winner, but only just in my book, and there looks far better bets to be had. He just doesn't win often enough to be backing at cramped odds. Like Webb, Dusty and Kuch last week, he seems to flatter to deceive too much.
Louis Oostuizen is just as good a talent as Charl, yet is 16-1. Yes Charl has been in better recent form. and Louis has to prove his back is back in working order. But he has had work done on it, and the 5 week break could be just what the doctor ordered. He is defending champion, and overall has just as good course form as the red hot fav.
Matteo Mannassero is in my opinion the bet of the week. He too hasn't been setting the world on fire, but this is the type of course he revels on. A par 72, measuring just one 6700 yards, his lack of length off the tee wont be an issue, but his laser like irons, and superb putting will certainly be assets. At 30-1 e.w(or a massive 36 on here), he rates a great bet.
In a similar vein to Manna, Miguel Angel Jimenez should also be in his element around here. Victorious on his last start on a similarly short, accuracy favouring layout, he looks well over priced here, presumably due to his lack of course from/knowledge. I am more than willing to take the risk that he can find his way around. He is certainly not afraid of winning, and would take him in a shootout against Charl any day.
1.4pt e.w Louis Oosthuizen 16-1
1pt e.w Mig Jimenez 22-1
1pt e.w Matteo Mannessero 30-1
Good Luck all.
I backed Adam Scott last week, and considering he played average, and putted worse, it was quite a feat that he ended up in a share of 6th. I would be prepared to forgive him that laboured display, as he probably took his eye off the ball after an arduous home campaign late in the year. He should be cherry ripe again this week, and having shown his ability to perform around here with a 2nd in 2009, and the distinct lack of strength in depth in this contest, the 8s in Powers with 6 places looks a bet worth having.
Another who I backed last week was Harris English, and he again is getting a share of the stake money. After 9 holes last week, English was struggling to come to terms with the layout, and languished in 29th of the 30 man field. From there to the finish line, there wasn't many better than him. Having had two previous sighters here, we can expect a quicker start, and with winning form on similar tracks, I am not deserting him this week, and remain convinced he will have a big year.
Brian Gay also performed well in the 1st event of the new year, and should receive extra credit, as that layout would have been totally the opposite of what he needs. He was playing his second shots from a different stratosphere to the likes of Dusty Johnson and Jordan Spieth, yet produced a weekend performance that belied his short hitting. He should go very close on this track.
Carl Petersson is one of them players I don't like backing, as I think he is a bit of a choker, but he has won, and at 100-1 he is worth risking. He has some good form around here, albeit inconsistent, but if trends are anything to go by, this should be a good one, as so far he has always followed a bad performance with a decent one the following year. There are plenty of players at shorter prices that have far less chance than the Swede.
Charles Howell absolutely loves this place, but I have swore never to back the bottling bol*ix outright again. He will never win. But the evens on offer for top 20 is like taking candy off a baby, and should be backed accordingly. Evens on English to also nail a top 20 looks worth backing too.
3pts e.w Adam Scott 8-1(6 places)
1.1pt e.w Harris English 25-1
0.6pt e.w Brian Gay 40-1(6 places)
0.3pt e.w Carl Petersson 100-1
12pt C Howell Top 20
6pt H English Top 20
In the Volvo, I cant have Charl Schwartzel at such a short price. Yes it is a limited field, and he is the most likely winner, but only just in my book, and there looks far better bets to be had. He just doesn't win often enough to be backing at cramped odds. Like Webb, Dusty and Kuch last week, he seems to flatter to deceive too much.
Louis Oostuizen is just as good a talent as Charl, yet is 16-1. Yes Charl has been in better recent form. and Louis has to prove his back is back in working order. But he has had work done on it, and the 5 week break could be just what the doctor ordered. He is defending champion, and overall has just as good course form as the red hot fav.
Matteo Mannassero is in my opinion the bet of the week. He too hasn't been setting the world on fire, but this is the type of course he revels on. A par 72, measuring just one 6700 yards, his lack of length off the tee wont be an issue, but his laser like irons, and superb putting will certainly be assets. At 30-1 e.w(or a massive 36 on here), he rates a great bet.
In a similar vein to Manna, Miguel Angel Jimenez should also be in his element around here. Victorious on his last start on a similarly short, accuracy favouring layout, he looks well over priced here, presumably due to his lack of course from/knowledge. I am more than willing to take the risk that he can find his way around. He is certainly not afraid of winning, and would take him in a shootout against Charl any day.
1.4pt e.w Louis Oosthuizen 16-1
1pt e.w Mig Jimenez 22-1
1pt e.w Matteo Mannessero 30-1
Good Luck all.
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Volvo
Thomas Aiken 80/1 ew
Thomas Bjorn 14/1 ew
Branden Grace 25/1 ew
Driving nt all that important here as its a short enough course, will need to be good with ur irons and putt well, and the 3 above fall into most of those categories!
Sony
Matt Every 100/1 ew
Sabbatini 66/1 ew
Briny Baird 150/1 ew
Morgan Hoffman 250/1 ew
Every - seems the overpriced one in the market to me - 6th here 2 years ago and a decent 7th in the McGladrey on his 2nd last start in 2013
Sabbatini good 3rd wen last seen and has some decent form around here in years gone by including 2 seconds
Baird - the ultimate choker but was 2nd in the McGladrey and has been 5th and 7th here in the past
Hoffman - drastically underpriced for many events last year on the back of 3 top 10s but a very in and out player with numerous missed cuts, purely a back at the price as he can be good wen he gets a decent start
Dont like any of the favs at the prices tbh in the Sony
Thomas Aiken 80/1 ew
Thomas Bjorn 14/1 ew
Branden Grace 25/1 ew
Driving nt all that important here as its a short enough course, will need to be good with ur irons and putt well, and the 3 above fall into most of those categories!
Sony
Matt Every 100/1 ew
Sabbatini 66/1 ew
Briny Baird 150/1 ew
Morgan Hoffman 250/1 ew
Every - seems the overpriced one in the market to me - 6th here 2 years ago and a decent 7th in the McGladrey on his 2nd last start in 2013
Sabbatini good 3rd wen last seen and has some decent form around here in years gone by including 2 seconds
Baird - the ultimate choker but was 2nd in the McGladrey and has been 5th and 7th here in the past
Hoffman - drastically underpriced for many events last year on the back of 3 top 10s but a very in and out player with numerous missed cuts, purely a back at the price as he can be good wen he gets a decent start
Dont like any of the favs at the prices tbh in the Sony
I've followed you in with Manaserro this week callit, looks a big price on a course that should suit him
I've gone with four picks in America this week.
Matt Kuchar 14/1
Jason Duffner 20/1
Tim Clark 22/1
Jerry Kelly 125/1
Good luck everyone!
I've gone with four picks in America this week.
Matt Kuchar 14/1
Jason Duffner 20/1
Tim Clark 22/1
Jerry Kelly 125/1
Good luck everyone!
Happy new year lads, hope xmas was good to you with plenty of winners. Will have a look at the sony tonight and see what tickles me then.
Tough to find a winner these early events but plumped for Chris Kirk at 34's Win & Place. Got his maiden win last year and a T5 here last year shows he can play the course with its fiddly greens. He will do for me. GL all.
You too Deplasterer,are you going to give Pod a chance this week?im with you call with Scott think hes a great e/w bet this week with power cant see him outside the top 6,in the Volvo my main bet this week is Grace betting w/o Charls 15/1 e/w with Boyles think this is an outstanding e/w bet,won this event in 2012 and had a poor 1st round last year followed by three very good rounds after that,showed a bit of form in the last few events in South Africa,finished 6th in his last outing,went for a double aswell with Scott and Charls in the outright market 8/1 and 3/1,Charls is a guy who owes me a few quid but im going to give him one more chance,best of luck this week lads,
Welcome back DP. Hope you been banging in a few winners while you were away.
Jamie Donaldson, ticks a lot of the right boxes in the Volvo, 12/1 seems a fair price............
Ya, I was going to back him myself,....just don't like the fu**er!!
F*** it, cant be letting personal dislikes get in the way,.........added Jamie Donaldson.
1.75pts e.w 12-1.
1.75pts e.w 12-1.
Didn't look at Euro event Huddys, so no bet but will be checking Pods progress no doubt
. Chucky 111 has some record in Hawaii but in horse terms he's a dog!
. Chucky 111 has some record in Hawaii but in horse terms he's a dog!
Slimmer version of Darren in better shape after first round in Durban . Our 4 doing passably well so far . Thats 11% of the 36 strong field , and no Rory or Graeme or Shane . Decent statistic .
On the note of personal dislikes, I have backed Rory Sabbatini at 60/1 each way for the Sony and backed him on here.
I don't like him but he is very well suited to this course.
Here is part of my preview on him.
Rory Sabbatini
Rory Sabbatini is a 6 time PGA Tour winner although he has not added to his haul since he won the Honda Classic in March 2011. His game was in the doldrums for quite a while after this and he missed 16 cuts in a dismal 2012 season (although he did finish 2nd from out of the blue in the Memorial Tournament). 2013 did not start off much better but he eventually managed a Top 10 finish in the RBC Heritage when he was 9th to Graeme McDowell and he added further Top 10s in the Greenbrier Classic, Fedex St Jude Classic, Reno Tahoe Open and the Wyndham. All of these were on Par 70 courses with the exception of the Reno Tahoe Open with its unique Stableford scoring system. Sabbatini has continued his improvement this season and he was 6th in the Franklin Templeton Shootout and 3rd in the OHL Classic at Mayakoba.
What is already apparent from this brief history is that the best Sabbatini performances have come on some of the key courses mentioned above as guides to Waialae and Sabbatini’s suitability to this venue becomes very clear with further investigation. His last 3 PGA Tour wins have come on Par 70 courses with victories in the Crowne Plaza in 2007 and the Byron Nelson in 2009.
Sabbatini was runner up in this event in 2006 & 2008 and was also 12th and 13th in 2009 & 2011. He has been 5th and 3rd in two of the last 3 renewals of the Mayakoba, 7th in the St Jude Classic in 2013, 9th in the Greenbrier in 2013 and he has four consecutive Top 20 finishes in the RBC Heritage with an 8th place in 2009 and 9th in 2013.
Sabbatini’s stats will never look very impressive as he can throw in some very poor performances, even when he is at his best, but he ranked 23rd in GIR last season and 32nd in Par 4 Performance. He was also 48th in Round 1 Scoring Average and on a course where a fast start looks very important, these are all factors very much in his favour.
An outing in the Hyundai is usually very beneficial ahead of the Sony Open and although Sabbatini did not play in the main event last week, he replaced Dustin Johnson in the Pro-Am. This will have helped blow away the cobwebs and he has obviously been settled in Hawaii now for over a week, which will be very beneficial.
With so much relevant form on his CV and with clear signs that his game is very much coming back, Sabbatini makes plenty of appeal each way at 60/1 with Stan James.
I don't like him but he is very well suited to this course.
Here is part of my preview on him.
Rory Sabbatini
Rory Sabbatini is a 6 time PGA Tour winner although he has not added to his haul since he won the Honda Classic in March 2011. His game was in the doldrums for quite a while after this and he missed 16 cuts in a dismal 2012 season (although he did finish 2nd from out of the blue in the Memorial Tournament). 2013 did not start off much better but he eventually managed a Top 10 finish in the RBC Heritage when he was 9th to Graeme McDowell and he added further Top 10s in the Greenbrier Classic, Fedex St Jude Classic, Reno Tahoe Open and the Wyndham. All of these were on Par 70 courses with the exception of the Reno Tahoe Open with its unique Stableford scoring system. Sabbatini has continued his improvement this season and he was 6th in the Franklin Templeton Shootout and 3rd in the OHL Classic at Mayakoba.
What is already apparent from this brief history is that the best Sabbatini performances have come on some of the key courses mentioned above as guides to Waialae and Sabbatini’s suitability to this venue becomes very clear with further investigation. His last 3 PGA Tour wins have come on Par 70 courses with victories in the Crowne Plaza in 2007 and the Byron Nelson in 2009.
Sabbatini was runner up in this event in 2006 & 2008 and was also 12th and 13th in 2009 & 2011. He has been 5th and 3rd in two of the last 3 renewals of the Mayakoba, 7th in the St Jude Classic in 2013, 9th in the Greenbrier in 2013 and he has four consecutive Top 20 finishes in the RBC Heritage with an 8th place in 2009 and 9th in 2013.
Sabbatini’s stats will never look very impressive as he can throw in some very poor performances, even when he is at his best, but he ranked 23rd in GIR last season and 32nd in Par 4 Performance. He was also 48th in Round 1 Scoring Average and on a course where a fast start looks very important, these are all factors very much in his favour.
An outing in the Hyundai is usually very beneficial ahead of the Sony Open and although Sabbatini did not play in the main event last week, he replaced Dustin Johnson in the Pro-Am. This will have helped blow away the cobwebs and he has obviously been settled in Hawaii now for over a week, which will be very beneficial.
With so much relevant form on his CV and with clear signs that his game is very much coming back, Sabbatini makes plenty of appeal each way at 60/1 with Stan James.
Did Kirk and Stroud as well so with Deplasterer on one of his bets.
Carl Petersson looks a cracking bet at 6-4 in 3 ball against Goosen and Allenby. Making cuts in full field events are bonuses to these two at the moment, and the Goose in particular is in sharp decline. Allenby has missed his last 3 cuts here, and is in general in very poor from. Peterrson has been slightly erratic in this tournament, with close up finishes surrounded by poor performances. But the first round is the time to catch the Swede most weeks, and anything half respectable today should account for his two opponents quite easily.
Your in a great position callitasucit,good soilid round by Scott last night,hopefully he keeps it going,just to let you know lads the golf starting abit early in the sony open tonight because of the weather,
Yeah, English rallied very well last night after a couple early bogeys. Seems to really get the bit between his teeth when in contention. Hopefully Oost and Manna can keep it going this morning. Great round from Grace yesterday, back in it.
Ye need Grace to have another low round today,i was going to back manna yesterday but didnt
Good Luck this evening DP. Hopefully Kirk or English can close it out.
Some poor displays by players that traditionally perform well here, with Sabbatini very bad and Howell not getting involved at all.
At least we the forum has a few live runners and Jerry Kelly also giving newapproach a chance of a very nice payout.
At least we the forum has a few live runners and Jerry Kelly also giving newapproach a chance of a very nice payout.
Still fancy Howell to nail the top 20 though DV. No pressure on him today, would expect about 4 under. That would definitely seal it. Plenty in front will have jitters about pay packets, and fold.
Good Luck with Kirk.
Good Luck with Kirk.
Any chance we could cancel out the first round scores in the Volvo?
The 74 from Grace would not have filled you with confidence alright but things going ok now!
Luiten has been very frustrating to watch on the greens this week but has managed to keep him in it.
Cannot understand where that opening Bjorn effort came from.
Luiten has been very frustrating to watch on the greens this week but has managed to keep him in it.
Cannot understand where that opening Bjorn effort came from.
He really should be -11 now.
That keeps everyone in it and it will be a very interesting last 2 hours.
That keeps everyone in it and it will be a very interesting last 2 hours.
74 from Grace, 72 from aiken, 79 from Bjorn all ind 1st round! and all gonna finish top 10 = sickener
from Bjorn all ind 1st round! and all gonna finish top 10 = sickener
F*ck that 16th hole. Triple bogey yesterday, and tops it up with a bogey today.
If English beats Kirk after Louis beats Joost I will hunt you down Callit!
Only joking - Very well done provided Fleetwood does not pull off a miracle.
Only joking - Very well done provided Fleetwood does not pull off a miracle.
Well done call,Grace had a great chance to pull clear but just couldnt on the par 3
Nice one Callit & nice to see Pod start the year off well. PGA should be exciting tonight, plenty here with good chances still but I have fingers and toes crossed for Kirk.
bst of luck dep.i want english and howell top 10 and 20..shud be a good evening entertainment
Ta Kavvie, if he can somehow manage to trade odds on at some point in the proceedings I will be inclined to bail out at that stage, but it will be a wait and see approach.
Harrington now talking about it being likely that he will get the yips.
Why does it not just get on with his game.
Why does it not just get on with his game.
Cheers men, didn't see any of it. Looking forward to tonight, hopefully English can get off to better start than in previous two rounds. And Howell to canter through the field without fear of winning!!
Have to say, I have got great luck the last few months, little things going right at the right time, but poor Huddys cant buy a break. You just cant legislate for the run of the ball. Hope your luck turns Huddys.
Have to say, I have got great luck the last few months, little things going right at the right time, but poor Huddys cant buy a break. You just cant legislate for the run of the ball. Hope your luck turns Huddys.
Good luck tonite everyone, should be an exciting climax hopefully.
I'll be cheering on duffner and kelly to bring home the bacon!
I'll be cheering on duffner and kelly to bring home the bacon!
Bit disappointing English didnt close it out(or Kirk when English couldn't), but a good profitable week all the same. Howell getting the top 20 was nice. Glad I was on the sauce last night, coz if I was on the laptop, I would have been laying Walker, and topping up on English!!
You,re in great form Callit,hope it continues,very impressive.Hard lines to the Grace backers here,any half decent 1st round and a chance or two missed on the final round,it was a bit cruel for ye. Plenty of places between the two tournaments amongst the contributers here and another fairly stunning weekly golf thread.
well done lads - the only thread worth loggin in for these days. Keep it up - will try to contribute more this year.
great stuff again Calli ... you d put Jeremy Chapman on the RP to Shame 
.....Seriously profitable if someone has been following you ...... Backed English myself yesterday at 4 s ... Was looking good with 4 to play ....... I have to admit i was in awe at the iron play of Jimmy Walker looked so in control .... really think he could have a big year .... Himself , English and Stroud who might have gone close if the puts fell ones to watch ...
PS Calli on a side note are you a low handicap golfer ????
.....Seriously profitable if someone has been following you ...... Backed English myself yesterday at 4 s ... Was looking good with 4 to play ....... I have to admit i was in awe at the iron play of Jimmy Walker looked so in control .... really think he could have a big year .... Himself , English and Stroud who might have gone close if the puts fell ones to watch ...PS Calli on a side note are you a low handicap golfer ????
Yes bang on pa lapsy another good week with the selections,unlucky lads last night in America,Roll on this week,thank god the golf in the states is on at a half decent time not like last week,
The only handicap I have relating to golf Dingle, is that im fuc*in handicapped playing it!! Went playing golf twice. Once when I was about 12, just when we where about to strike the first ball, a lad on adjoining green had a heart attack. Then I attempted to tee off, with a right handed club, only to discover that I was a golf leftie. I left it at that for the next 20 years!! Then a couple of years ago, tried again, but it was an early start, and the previous night had been a serious session, so in the interest of health and safety, I didn't persevere for long!!
But I do like to bet on it!
But I do like to bet on it!
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