Irish Sports
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After the success of similar threads posted on the Irish forum this time last year in terms of winning selections, I felt the need to get the ball rolling in a similar fashion for this year. In terms of outright bets I am struggling to find a Baltimore. Despite criticism of Phil Agius tips in the racing post last year, I must commend his Ante Post selections for the superbowl as I think he has got all bases covered by pin-pointing San Fran (9/1), Cincinnati (e/w 50/1) and Indi (e/w 50/1) and by covering on Seattle in today's piece in the paper.
For me Seattle are worthy favorites. They have a mean defense and will have a huge advantage by playing at home. I think the NFC is where I see the overall champions coming from. In terms of the competition I see San Francisco as the biggest stumbling block. However, both are priced accordingly at 5/2 and 8/1 generally. San Francisco in particular will have to do it the hard way, firstly in Green Bay then a potential trip to Seattle or Carolina which is not going to be easy. I think they can definitely win in Green Bay and Carolina but Seattle is a different matter, so think there is more value in backing them in their individual games rather than taking the 8/1 on offer. The fact that Arizona failed to make the play offs shows the strength in depth of the NFC this year especially compared to the AFC. I for one would fancy Arizona's chances of winning the AFC if they were in that conference. Of the remainder, Carolina are an up and coming team built around an excellent defense. Personally I think they still lack play-off experience and not sure their offensive side of the ball is good enough this year. New Orleans have the experience and quality to go all the way but their away form is shocking and therefore not a play. Green Bay without Clay Matthews are just not good enough on the D side of the ball to get out of the conference.
Of the AFC teams, I am genuinely struggling to nail my flag to any mast. Denver are the worthy favorites considering their record and swash buckling play plus home advantage. For me though at around 11/4 are too short. I have a nagging feeling that their poor defense will catch them out and because of this make no appeal. New England have over achieved with roster they have and again their defense does not strike me as good enough to win a superbowl. I do like Cincinnati, they have an impressive roster both sides of the ball and are stacked with talent. They are not so effective away from home and Dalton I do not like, throws far too many interceptions. Indianapolis have shown already this season that they are more than capable of competing with the top ranked teams accounting for Denver, San Fran and Seattle already this year. Reggie Wayne is a massive loss for them however which does temper enthusiasm. I don't see any of the wild card teams having much impact. Kansas had a soft schedule and struggled against any of the teams with decent records. San Diego are blessed to even be in the play offs and can thank the officials in their game against the Kansas reserve team for been there. Shame too as Pittsburgh would have been an outside fancy for me.
In summary for me, I fancy the superbowl champions to be Seattle or San Francisco.
Now to the wild card games this weekend. Initially I seen alot of points in each of the games but inclement weather has the potential to scupper this. My biggest fancy of the weekend is San Francisco giving 2.5 points in Green Bay. A strong D and a solid running game will be enough to overcome the cold and bitter weather imo. The Packers needed a 4th down touchdown with time running out to put away a poor Chicago side. On the other hand San Fran beat the conference form side in Arizona away from home.
As for the other games I will add further thoughts closer to kick off time later.
For me Seattle are worthy favorites. They have a mean defense and will have a huge advantage by playing at home. I think the NFC is where I see the overall champions coming from. In terms of the competition I see San Francisco as the biggest stumbling block. However, both are priced accordingly at 5/2 and 8/1 generally. San Francisco in particular will have to do it the hard way, firstly in Green Bay then a potential trip to Seattle or Carolina which is not going to be easy. I think they can definitely win in Green Bay and Carolina but Seattle is a different matter, so think there is more value in backing them in their individual games rather than taking the 8/1 on offer. The fact that Arizona failed to make the play offs shows the strength in depth of the NFC this year especially compared to the AFC. I for one would fancy Arizona's chances of winning the AFC if they were in that conference. Of the remainder, Carolina are an up and coming team built around an excellent defense. Personally I think they still lack play-off experience and not sure their offensive side of the ball is good enough this year. New Orleans have the experience and quality to go all the way but their away form is shocking and therefore not a play. Green Bay without Clay Matthews are just not good enough on the D side of the ball to get out of the conference.
Of the AFC teams, I am genuinely struggling to nail my flag to any mast. Denver are the worthy favorites considering their record and swash buckling play plus home advantage. For me though at around 11/4 are too short. I have a nagging feeling that their poor defense will catch them out and because of this make no appeal. New England have over achieved with roster they have and again their defense does not strike me as good enough to win a superbowl. I do like Cincinnati, they have an impressive roster both sides of the ball and are stacked with talent. They are not so effective away from home and Dalton I do not like, throws far too many interceptions. Indianapolis have shown already this season that they are more than capable of competing with the top ranked teams accounting for Denver, San Fran and Seattle already this year. Reggie Wayne is a massive loss for them however which does temper enthusiasm. I don't see any of the wild card teams having much impact. Kansas had a soft schedule and struggled against any of the teams with decent records. San Diego are blessed to even be in the play offs and can thank the officials in their game against the Kansas reserve team for been there. Shame too as Pittsburgh would have been an outside fancy for me.
In summary for me, I fancy the superbowl champions to be Seattle or San Francisco.
Now to the wild card games this weekend. Initially I seen alot of points in each of the games but inclement weather has the potential to scupper this. My biggest fancy of the weekend is San Francisco giving 2.5 points in Green Bay. A strong D and a solid running game will be enough to overcome the cold and bitter weather imo. The Packers needed a 4th down touchdown with time running out to put away a poor Chicago side. On the other hand San Fran beat the conference form side in Arizona away from home.
As for the other games I will add further thoughts closer to kick off time later.
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Packers my outside bet about 20/1, Rogers back and seemed as good as ever last weekend. They've a tough one against San Fran but if they come through that, they'll take a bit of stopping.
For tonight, Chiefs/Eagles looks a nailed on double. The Saints are bad enough out of the Superdome, the cold and snow will make it feel a lot worse. I acn see the Eagles covering the 3 points with some to spare. |
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The packers were my outside pick going into last weekend and fancied them to turn over Chicago comfortably. I just don't see how Green Bays D can stop San Fran effectively enough while I do think San Fran can quell Rogers and co. San Fran have a strong running game so I don't think the weather will effect them too much.
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That double must be nailed on to jelly
Kansas @ Indy, Indy win (10/11) Chiefs have lost 5 of 7 and got here by beating back up QBs, Indy have won 5 of 7 and beat the likes of Seahawks, 9ers and Peyton Manning along the way. Colts are at home and have Andrew Luck, Chiefs are away and have Alex Smith, no contest. Colts D has one job to do and that is to stop Jamaal Charles. Andrew Luck can take care of the rest New Orleans @ Philly Saints win (5/4) Both Offenses can be explosive so I think it will come down to Defense and it then becomes Saints no 4th ranked D v Eagles 29th ranked D. So much has been made of the Saints poor away record that I think it will only egg Drew Brees and co on and everyone's forgetting that Philly had a losing streak of 10 in a row at home up until very recently. Eagles gave up 350+ passing yards to Matt Cassell and then the same to Kyle (Who?) Orton. They gave up 38 points to a Vikings team WITHOUT Adrian Peterson. Like I said it's the 29th ranked Defense vs Brees, Graham, Coulston, Sproles etc. In short I believe Saints are the better team and an easy call to make at the odds |
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As for tonight's first game I am very surprised how the betting has gone. Kansas are now giving 2.5 points on the road to a team who beat them comfortably just a few weeks ago at home. Indianapolis have turned their mid season slump around with 3 wins on the spin and 4 out of their last 6, Kansas have won 1 of their last 3 and 2 of their last 6 against Oakland and one of this years whipping boys Washington. Kansas have had an easy schedule in the main and have struggled against the better sides. I am all over Indianapolis on this, both receiving 2.5 and on the money line. I see points here too and fancy over the current mark of 46.5.
Tonight's second game has the makings of a classic with 2 of the NFL's most creative game calling coaches going head to head. The Saints as already mentioned have been poor on the road. They did however come very close to defeating Carolina on the road a couple of weeks ago. I expect lots of points but the current line of 54.5 is about right considering the potential weather implications. I am going for New Orleans here on the money line despite their away form. I don't rate Philadelphia's secondary and envisage Brees having a lot of success. If Minnesota can have a lot of success then surely Brees will rip them to shreds. I think the Saints D can do enough to stop Philly plus Philly's division was weak compared to the Saints. |
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Thats why we have a market, just think the Colts are always overrated going into the playoffs and usually fail to deliver. I think i read some where during the week that there record is 5-10 in first round playoff games, in my head i thought it was worse. I'd have to think they were fav in most of them esp with Manning at the helm for a lot.
Don't think the Eagles will be caught out on there defence tonight, just banking (and it will happen) on the New Orleans offence freezing, Brees is something like 20-3 TD-Int home to 10-9 away. And their rushing offence even if they could pick their best isn't as good as the Vikings minus Petersson! |
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Not necessarily in this instance as all the money has been for the chiefs whose recent play off record is not too impressive either. The chiefs are now actually giving points rather than receiving away from home. No doubt New Orleans are not as effective away from home I agree but I think for tonight its a good match up for the Saints especially against the Philly secondary. I see the damage inflicted through the air but their rushing offence hardly shabby either. Darren Sproles would be a certain starter in most offences imo.
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That was a pretty impressive drive by Luck, I think 3pt min per drive might be needed from both teams here, the over 46.5 looks good already MrP.
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Good call winsam, apart from opening drive it been a horror show from Indi and excellence the Chiefs. The saving grace for me is the total points. Alex Smith has had a stormer ably assisted by the Indi D inability to close space or make tackles.
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not there yet, 1/6 now. CHIEFS lead 38 24. 7.32 left in the 3rd.
Need to score on the next, and can't see them getting first downs running the ball. |
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Incredible game on a knife edge again.
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Come on Smith, Some game,who ever wins but they'll be going out in the next round.
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Take a Kit Kat lads.
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44 45, wd Mr's. Cracking game.
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Absolutely unbelievable comeback.
 Stunning game. |
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I feel for you winsam, that was proof miracles do happen. I actually congratulated all the chiefs backers on the other forum when the chiefs lead went to 28 at the start of the 3rd quarter. The be fair the injuries probably done the chiefs but very surprised how their defense wilted in the 2nd half. As for next week the colts will have to go most likely to Denver and would not be a forlorn hope but more on that maybe next week.
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Weather looks fine in Philly so I am expecting more points here.
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The coach didn't help either, I think the best thing the eagles did was get rid of him.
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Maybe though he has done a great job despite the easy schedule. Losing Avery, Charles and then Davis who was having a massive impact took away 3 of his biggest offensive threats.
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Def injurys were prob the biggest, but wasteing 3 timeouts was crazy. A game like that shouldn't finish on the 2 min warning. There was no time managment at all
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So much for my points prediction
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A bit like Mayo last year WINSAMSOON
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More like them against Meath in 96
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How's Boyd doing?
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Yes they were wasted alright I agree but think the injuries were far more significant
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Boyd not doing great...every time i switch back from the cricket to the NFL they are on a break or in the studio...I'd prefer to watch chess
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I turned 5 min ago and Boyd was eating a hang sandwich
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oi oi boyd ist test wicket
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The main difference between the two team is Drew Brees but not in the way you would usually think. Looks on edge and seems lost and confused at times in the pocket. Saints a point down a point when they should be in front.
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A good nights work though a lucky one too. Miracle in Indi, Kansas chances not helped by their injuries. I thought the saints deserved the win even though it was gained largely on the ground and not through the air as envisaged. I thought their D really stepped up for the majority but were really struggling by the end which is something to keep in mind for next week in Seattle. Rolls on tomorrow and hopefully more profit.
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2/2
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Chargers @ Cincinatti
Cincy -6.5 (Powers) They can be hard to trust but there will never be a better opportunity for the Bengals than this. They are 8/0 at home this season and are a well balanced side who should be able to deal with the jammy chargers with the minimum of fuss. Dalton can be hit and miss but on his day he's lethal and he's up against a poor Chargers D today. The Bengals D are rock solid and despite Phillip Rivers having a stellar year they should be able to keep San Diego at bay for the most part today. 49ers @ Green Bay 49ers -2.5 With Rodgers at qb the Packers will always have a chance but aside from the qb position, the niners are bigger, stronger and better all over the field. They have a serious chance of going the distance this season and as such should be able to handle a Packers side who were poxed enough to beat a poor Bears outfit there last week. We had 2 cliffhangers yesterday but I think both Favs will cover today. |
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I agree again with Mr M. Gave my thoughts on San Fran already and nothing has changed. I think they are better side and will win. Green Bay are strong offensively with Rogers directing the ship ably assisted by Eddie Lacey and Jordy Nelson but have no doubt San Fran can keep these in check. Not convinced by Colin K but don't think tonight is the night my worries will be shown up.
I like Cincy giving up the points here too. San Diego really lucky to get this far as already pointed out. The officials were their extra man last week and played a huge role in them getting this far. I like Cincy on both sides of the ball and arguably they have the most natural talent of any team left in the play offs. Dalton is a worry but still has plenty of big plays in his repertoire. Cincy have also been impeccable at home and have a recent win over San Diego also. I initially thought both games were over the points bankers. I am however very wary of the weather. Weather forecasters were predicting a lot of snow and inclement in both areas. My advice is to wait and see what the weather is like. The points line in cincy is 46 points and 45 points in Green Bay. Best course of action might be to have single on first game and possibly play winnings on second game when exact conditions are known at game time. |
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*inclement weather
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Andy Dalton
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Horror show from the Bengals. AJ Green 3 catches in total says it all. Worries about Dalton were well founded but I think Marvin Lewis and the coaches got to take a lot of the flak too. The Bengals are without doubt the AFC's biggest under achievers especially when you consider what New England done this year with their personal. Roll on San Fran, the weekends bankers.
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San Francisco making seriously hard work of this, wouldn't mind but the Packers D is totally crocked
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They are blowing it Mr M, very hard viewing as really they have dominated for long periods but not made it count on the scoreboard.
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That's more like it mr p, keep the faith.
Clear holding no call that time Rodgers Made his amazing escape |
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Phew!!! Just about done it. I think it should have been easier but a win is a win. Roll on next week.
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