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21 Dec 13 09:14
Date Joined: 11 Feb 10
| Topic/replies: 8,287 | Blogger: silvergreaser's blog
Noel Meade fav
Willie Mullins 2nd fav,

Wildman will be watching this one with beady eyes.
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Report pa lapsy December 21, 2013 10:52 AM GMT
For the sake of pig iron no harm in keeping an eye on it.
On the face of it Wounded Warriors 3rd to Shaneshill looks decent form and is reflected in the prices,not sure how good Killultagh Vics 3rd in a point is,ie 14L behind Aircraftman who incidently fell behind a well touted WPM runner in Alonso in a Wexford maiden. Of note also is that point was in April so possible fitness questions there.No bet at this stage for me.
BF prices, Wounded Warrior 2/2.02 Killultagh Vic 3.6/3.7
Report dj876 December 21, 2013 11:03 AM GMT
Now here's a matter that confuses me ,in the last 8 bumpers that Noel Meade has contested-Willie Mullins has had runners in 7 of them.
Report Ozymandius December 21, 2013 11:13 AM GMT
It's great to have you back, dj.  That's the kind of factual insight that cuts straight through all the bluff and bluster.
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2013 11:57 AM GMT
Just to update the early BF market;
Wounded Warrior 2/2.02
Killultagh Vic  3.25/3.3
On the face of it it looks like there is support for the 2nd fav in the weak early market,have my doubts is it genuine and will be interesting to see will it continue.
Report dj876 December 21, 2013 12:06 PM GMT
Do Meade and Mullins not avoid each other in Bumpers or has this theory been shelved??

There is market manipulation on every single race today-U'd expect the form horse to be odds on later on.
Liquidity is gone on here,often an attempt to hold off course prices.(still a lot of work getting on)
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2013 12:23 PM GMT
Theory as far as i remember concerned up to December or thereabouts,anyway things can change.Accept the market manipulation and liquidity points they are very valid.
As said in the opening post its pig iron and nothing might happen with the race,still it may and was the point i was making on the irish forum thread but was dismissed by yourself.
Report dj876 December 21, 2013 12:26 PM GMT
So do you now accept that  Meade and Mullins avoiding each other in bumpers was a load of bolloc#s??
Report Ozymandius December 21, 2013 12:31 PM GMT
anyway things can change

He just can't bring himself to disagree with his Commander in Chief.  The type of **** who votes FF just cause his great grandfather did.  A weak yes man.
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2013 12:32 PM GMT
No,i think they did particulary in Sept/oct/nov to a large extent.
Report dj876 December 21, 2013 12:34 PM GMT
Ah Pa you're leaving yourself down,Mullins had 2 bumper runners in a 6 week period then.
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2013 12:35 PM GMT
Another contribution from ya Ozy that falls into the point scoring category rather than the pimping of other peoples work category on yet another racing thread.
Report dj876 December 21, 2013 12:40 PM GMT
Or maybe it wasn't because of the lack of runners,but because they saw the great Wildman was on to them and now have reacted by suddenly taking each other on in every Bumper.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle December 21, 2013 12:48 PM GMT
With the greatest respect this isn't a Rich Ricci or Gigginstown Bumper horse.

Giggy have a good line as there horse was beat Mullins inmate in his point.

Meade will win this.
Report silvergreaser December 21, 2013 12:57 PM GMT
Dj don't underestimate the pally pally nature of Irish racing particularly the close relationship of the Mullins family and Meade.

The presence of the Mullins horse on Meades home turf is keeping his at a backable price?.
Report dj876 December 21, 2013 1:03 PM GMT
Have a look at his thread it states Meade and Mullins avoid each other in Bumpers.
How anyone can suggest that is factually correct is beyond me.
Last 8 Meade Bumper (including today) -Willie Mullins has had 7 runners.

I think it's fairy difficult to state that this theory(and I mean this THEORY ALONE)has any credibility?
Report silvergreaser December 21, 2013 1:09 PM GMT
In recent seasons it doesn't seem so prevalent, but going back a few years, Meade use to monopolise all the early bumper races, before Willies got into full stride and many of the graded races too.

But such is Willies almost total dominance these days Meade like many other trainers are struggling to compete against such firepower.
Report dj876 December 21, 2013 1:14 PM GMT
Okay different tangent,not much point in continuing there and I am sure Wildman will attempt to move the goalposts too.

If I suggested a theory on here and it proved to be incorrect-I'd hold my hands up and say sorry lads I was way off there.

It is important to bear in mind performance of past theories when considering the credibility of future theories.
Report silvergreaser December 21, 2013 1:22 PM GMT
Is there collusion dj?, personally I do not know, but I'd say there is an element of is yours any good Willie or is yours any good Noel.
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2013 1:23 PM GMT
Sure it was said it was at least pre Christmas,your point they have been taking each other on lately is of course a fair point.
Just an update;
Wounded Warior 2/2.02
Killultagh Vic 2.88/3
Notable that the 3rd fav is weak(Boonadooma)
Report neill d December 21, 2013 3:03 PM GMT
Anyone think Ruby got a bit out of his ground there on Easy Vic? horse isn't the most reliable but he could have been closer I think.
Report neill d December 21, 2013 3:07 PM GMT
Jaysus, that is what ya get for questioning Ruby, was on Cedre Bleu there and there is no doubt in my mind that Walsh would have gotten it home, a strength thing.
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2013 3:09 PM GMT
Think that fella travels well Neill and seems to find little,a disappointing horse,seemed to have a good chance today,one personally i,d be forgetting about.
No major market moves for the main two yet,Boondrooma being so weak is the reason for slight shortenings.
Wounded warrior 1.92/1.93
Killultagh  2.98/3.05
Report neill d December 21, 2013 3:16 PM GMT
Was just watching but just had a look back at a few of his races on the player Pa and you'd be right, probably should have checked that before commenting.

Jacob probably didn't do a whole pile wrong either but you just sense he is costing Nicholls in comparison to what he had before.
Report neill d December 21, 2013 3:20 PM GMT
Have backed Wounded warrior as I want to be on the side of any horse that has had anything to do with Shaneshill.
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2013 3:20 PM GMT
Money now coming for Wounded Warrior 1.75,no major drift on Killtulagh at 3.2.
Report silvergreaser December 21, 2013 3:22 PM GMT
Jacob gave it a perfect ride the horse didn't want to know neil.
Report neill d December 21, 2013 3:24 PM GMT
I was hoping Walsh might have changed his mind Silver!!
Report tony57 December 21, 2013 3:24 PM GMT
pa what was the best price you could get for meads please?
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2013 3:26 PM GMT
11/10 and a little more to small,plenty of evens around for most of the day Tony.
Report tony57 December 21, 2013 3:28 PM GMT
thanks interesting to see the form with the mullins inmate..seems everyone thinks that's his festival horse?
Report Distant View December 21, 2013 3:31 PM GMT
Mullins has some lovely horses to unveil yet.

Shaneshill looks a very poor price at 8/1 although not quite in the Craanford Mill bracket.
Report tony57 December 21, 2013 3:32 PM GMT
form is solid enough eh pa?
Report tony57 December 21, 2013 3:33 PM GMT
   I agree..but I thought they raved about royal caviar?
Report Distant View December 21, 2013 3:35 PM GMT
Not sure who they are to be honest, as I have not heard too much talk outside of the norm about either horse.

They are nearly all talked up and certainly when they wear pink silks.

Sicilian Secret was one that I think was 5/1 for Cheltenham and was 16/1 on the day? Having said that Fever was 24s on the machine at the off in the bumper.
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2013 3:36 PM GMT
Well done Neill,concerned the two and while Wounded Warrior was very well backed,he was entitled to be as said above decent recent form against a possible very good horse who ought to come on for the run.Winner went off approx 1.71
Report neill d December 21, 2013 3:38 PM GMT
I thought he was beaten in the un the way the Mullins horse went Pa.
Report neill d December 21, 2013 3:41 PM GMT
Happened to see Modem last time and he was very babyish, I think he will take the last at Lingfield so had a go.
Report tony57 December 21, 2013 3:42 PM GMT
welldone neill..great shout..
Report neill d December 21, 2013 3:46 PM GMT
Funny one Tony as twas me slipping into old ways!! I had a really close look at Salsalito Sunrise but I passed it up and it was an angry kind of bet really. He travelled twice as well as he did the last day there did Modem.
Report tony57 December 21, 2013 3:48 PM GMT
its a winner mate..and tbf I didn't fancy it..i thought it would struggle against these?..welldone again mate..
Report paulie wallnuts December 21, 2013 3:49 PM GMT
the combined forces take home the loot again.....5/4 to 4/6......well done to all concerned.....second didn't was obvious really.....Wildman strikes again......HO HO HO.....
Report one last chance December 21, 2013 3:52 PM GMT
Ahh sure willie and noël must not have spoken today to get the 4/7 shot beat
Report neill d December 21, 2013 3:54 PM GMT
Ta Tony, Atzeni made a big difference I think, don't think Dwyer's head has been in the game for a while. Just saw the ad there for the King George, looking forward to the 4 days after Christmas a lot more than the day itself as usual.
Report pa lapsy December 21, 2013 3:59 PM GMT
Out of all the bits of your sentence above Paulie,take out the "second didn,t try" and you could well be very right with the rest of it.
Up to yourselves to decide but in no way you could disprove of what he has been saying.
Report kingrat December 21, 2013 4:06 PM GMT
what gives?  BORING! BORING! BORING! the same old sh1te from these old farts. ShockedShockedLaughLaugh
Report tony57 December 21, 2013 4:08 PM GMT
I,ll be glad to see the back of this month neillLaughlooking forward to January the horse I have a leg in will run..and I just hope my luck changes..
Report neill d December 21, 2013 4:11 PM GMT
Good man, enjoy it, it can be an achievement just to get them to the track. Nicholls ex-man landed a big one there I saw, badly needed I'd say as I thought he had started very quietly for all I don't see the midweek stuff.
Report tony57 December 21, 2013 4:13 PM GMT
hes started off like a train neill..first 6wks he couldn't do there flying..hes a lucky man ..his father has a few the place he has is top drawer to train from..
Report neill d December 21, 2013 4:27 PM GMT
All of it gone over my head so Tony, well adding that to what happened today he is in a great spot so. He has the right background also in that he will get lots of publicity the way he is connected up and you can imagine the likes Bryce and Plunkett down there pretty regularly.

Twould make ya sick the start some fella getLaugh
Report tony57 December 21, 2013 4:30 PM GMT
Report neill d December 21, 2013 4:36 PM GMT
His secretary is probably a cracker too, it really is never ending!!

There's a fella who has worked in my local for years that got himself a job (a nice number) in the ESB at 18 or 19, he quit after a few months and every so often when it is busy you can hear him murmur "Where did I go wrong?"
Report tony57 December 21, 2013 4:39 PM GMT
no his wife is a lovely looking girl neill ive seen them a few times at the track..he is shall we say..punching above his weight? looks like him longstone, and a few others will start to move up the ladder in the training ranks..
Report neill d December 21, 2013 4:47 PM GMT
Yeah, there are gaps in the upper mid tier behind Henderson and Nicholls for sure, competition for the likes of Pipe and Hobbs. What kind of a time has Tim Vaughan had of late? There was a lot of talk about 18-24 months ago of him drawing back from summer jumping and was buying a more winterish type of horse.
Report tony57 December 21, 2013 5:05 PM GMT
neill hes doing well can tell he has slowed that I mean hes bought more expensive horses and is giving them not running as many..but what he is running are doing ok..he had a bad year last season..not sure if he had a virus..?but until he and the others start attracting more big name owners who normally stay with the big 4 hendo nicholls king hobbs..then they will still be in the middle rung..but that's fine for own trainer has just started up..he was a assistant to a top yard for 10 years..he has only 14 in atm..but he says he has a 5yr plan..thats they way these fellas work.
Report wildmanfromborneo December 21, 2013 8:58 PM GMT
They raced against each other today but have no doubt they combined punting forces again,there was fortunes for Wounded Warrior.

I outlined lots of races where solos were given,including ten races in a row where incredibly all ten were won by the favourite,the same threads yielded winner after winner but I always stated this was getting bypasse by time.

With Willie Mullins running horses in nearly every bumper Noel Meade can't avoid them but he has been able to avoid the good ones with his good ones resulting in substantial punts.

Posters are highlighting Noel Meades lack of success in bumpers recently but it is noticeable that all of his winners have been punted for pounds shillings and pence.
Report The Gotchee December 21, 2013 9:18 PM GMT
You are right again wildman, well done.
Report one last chance December 21, 2013 9:27 PM GMT
Ahh come on lads anyone with a bit of sense could have got the winner of today's bumper the form was there for all to see
Report wildmanfromborneo December 21, 2013 10:14 PM GMT
Agreed but let's see how well the Mullins horse does later.

The winners form is rock solid so would Killultagh Vic run two lengths behind not make him decent.

I think Killultagh Vic isint within an asses roar of Mullins top ones,he won't be as bad as Sizing Brisbane another of Mullins bad ones pitted against a Meade gamble.
Report paulie wallnuts December 22, 2013 9:45 AM GMT
The combined forces strike yet again......filled up their sacks with they usually do......had pounds shillings and pence on the last winner.....the offices and the English backed the second fav......funny how they never seem to back winners......must be incredibly stupid people giving direction in Ladbrookes......
But it was Don Poli where they really got the Christmas ex's......again the offices came in for it ......7/4 in the morning to an sp 4/7........the combined really took it on.....laid it heavily......and backed the winner as well of on it sp in Malaysia.....
There is no beating these thinking of jacking it in.....we have no chance have we.....and I really cant thank Wildman enough for pointing out whats going on.......
A new development in modern day gambling is.....when horses are shortened in the morning.....I always thought that was punters betting.....but no apparently......its the offices betting with each other......

Report pa lapsy December 22, 2013 10:05 AM GMT
Good morning Paulie,you,re in fine fettle,notice you didn,t comment on the Fairyhouse betting thread anymore concerning Abbysical and the fact it was raining all day there,though i suppose it must feel like you are talking to the wall at times that these horses aren,t actually getting backed at all.
Report paulie wallnuts December 22, 2013 10:09 AM GMT
pa didn't rain in fairyhouse that day til 11.....I know that for certain......that's not pub talk that goes on here.....the ground changed between that time and the first race.....I commented as such.....but you obviously were too entranced with yer leader's nonsense to notice......
Report workrider December 22, 2013 10:12 AM GMT
Pa , I think Paulie is powdering his nose to often to notice ....His hatred of Wildmanfromborneo for highlighting this is literally driving him nuts...
Report pa lapsy December 22, 2013 10:14 AM GMT
Paulie you can deny it all you like, the patterns are there,hanging on to coat tails doesn,t look a bad way to go, share the wealth Paulie.
Report paulie wallnuts December 22, 2013 10:19 AM GMT
Im having difficulty reading the situation pre race pa.......I actually backed don poli yesterday.....when I saw it going from 7/4 to 4/7.....I was sure it had to be the combined forces.....but it was those darn betting shops wrong could ya be.....
Report paulie wallnuts December 22, 2013 10:20 AM GMT
pity the Wildman wasn't in a position to tell us what was happening......BEFORE the race.....because he's an expert AFTER it.....
Report pa lapsy December 22, 2013 10:29 AM GMT
Dunno Paulie,not a good situation to be in with a backed C Byrnes horse in the race, not the usual modus operandi at all, normally its take your pick in a 2 horse race like the bumper,tried in my own small way to tell ya what was happening in the bumper Paulie and i hope it was of some assistance.
Report workrider December 22, 2013 10:31 AM GMT
Surely a man of your caliber can work these things out for yourself , or has Ozy got to you as well , you'll be asking Wildmanfromborneo to write out your betting slips next ....Laugh
Report pa lapsy December 22, 2013 10:37 AM GMT
Paulie,think there should be a thread like this anytime there is a possibility of a major market move just to see what exactly is happening, might make it a new years resolution, you might have fierce ammo altogether to throw at the Wildman after the results of a few of them.....maybe.
Report Ozymandius December 22, 2013 11:08 AM GMT
Dumb and Dumber have never knowingly questioned a word Borne has ever said, he has this magnetic hold over them.
Report Ozymandius December 22, 2013 11:08 AM GMT
Report pa lapsy December 22, 2013 11:14 AM GMT
Better again,delighted with your reply Ozy.
Report Ozymandius December 22, 2013 11:22 AM GMT
I think its a generational thing. Back then you just automatically believed the guy with the loudest voice.  Independent thought is a relatively new fangled concept.
Report pa lapsy December 22, 2013 11:28 AM GMT
Of course, you are right Ozy.
Agree with the Wildman,Killultagh probably is way down the pecking order,still an all probably isn,t a bad animal,with the two going clear and only really Boonadrooma to give any line of form,the jury would have to be out till another run but certainly worth keeping an eye on.
Report paddywhacker1970 December 22, 2013 12:10 PM GMT
Hindsight is the most powerful weapon of them all!
Report wildmanfromborneo December 23, 2013 12:17 PM GMT
I showed ye a trend that's all and gave ye chapter and verse.

Paulie Wallnuts you are being deliberately obtuse,nowhere did I say thy get it right every time,Ipsos Du Berlais and Marsonnien the most spectacular,one that hurt you.

They done their dough on Don Poli but its not a good example as most of the ones I outlined were when there was not much of a discrepancy in price as evinced by the Marsonnien Ipsos Du Berlais race where they originally bet 6/4 each of two.
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