irish racing...the new numbers game

you hit the nail on the head there k.l.,i really think the irish scene is closed shop now..mullins and gigginstown, with ricci and jp,..I thought a while ago that some smaller trainers may get some decent horses with syndicates coming together but the game is joke atm...

jp's horses are not the reason for all the odds on shots............no idea why you connect his high entries with the new terrible situation for irish jumps...........its will mullins mainly...........giggs maybe a small bit.

with all the horses gigginstown have.....they haven't got one that has an earthly for any decent race at Cheltenham....that isn't trained by mullins.....I suppose when you put a good share of your eggs in big noels basket.....well then.....what do they expect.....combine him with Pauline Nolan.....and the little mouse....Charlie swan.... and they are getting their just rewards......people buying for them are clueless.....quite obvious.....but its a poorly run organisation.....O Leary is too busy to have a clue and the brother Neddie.....well if he's the brains behind the operation......

an update, after 4 of the 5 days containing those massive 5 day decs, the scores on the doors.
McManus 7
giggs   4.....no DN Russell winner in the silks.


reflections...not after timing, won every day, biggest bet on no more heroes, and I had a hefty wager each way on sire de grugy, who at 4/1 was the each way bet to nothing of the season...sprinter sacre had lost his shine for me at punchestown and missing engagements such as the tingle creek sent of distress signals. leaves the queen mum wide open.

gold cup.....if the ground is reasonable, with a clear passage heard to make a case against bobs worth, the way he finished his race highlighted that he still has the hunger to win......I would love to see first lieutenant run in the gold cup because he will place in the race and is more reliable than sir des champs...the latter appears as tough all his eggs will be put in the basket of hope that he gets it right on just the one day.

champion hurdle: the picture has become clearer in my mind. we are down to 3 for the money: hurricane, my tent and the new one......I was not surprised at the Kempton result as I felt in a tactical match McCoy would outwit the TD kid and so it proved....the fact that their will be more dangers than just one in the champion hurdle will actually help STD......my one concern about The New One, and also the reason why I am deleting Our Conor is I believe both have speed and stamina....requirements for the more sweeping Triumph hurdle track at Cheltenham...the Champion Hurdle is staged on the tighter inside track, and therefore the emphasis majoring on speed counts against both....I think Our Conor is simply not fast enough(unless heavy ground prevails) to count on this precise course and the sharp track(as compared to the outside one) may also do for The New One.

My Tent Or Yours, will barring injury be the mount of McCoy...he could by nature be the new Harchibald...and the more contenders for the pot, the better for him...on good ground I cannot be him out of the frame and he may win as Hurricane may be vulnerable on good ground.

2 last notes....champagne fever is never at his best at Christmas, different horse in 3 months, that mistake will crown him, a bit like the one tidal bay made at Doncaster before he ran away with the arkle...best to gain an education in trial rather than have easy races......and faugheen....very good horse....do not entertain backing ante post for Cheltenham unless it is as non runner no bet, because he is so fragile, and fragile horse and the word ante post are not bed companions.

keen leader     29 Dec 13 22:05 

reflections...not after timing, won every day

Filth

I found Leopardstown extremely tough going this year, fair dues to anyone that was profitable all 4 days (even including other meets).

I think MTOY should be clear favourite for the champion.The stronger pace in the champion will suit him better than anything with his high cruising speed and I don't think he's as much as a bridle ponce as people make out,imo he would still have been in front if Kempton was a furlong further.It's nonsense to say that TNO would have won if he hadn't made the mistake because the truth is that the pinnacle of that test was to be able to jump proficiently when the pace quickened (mistake was forced rather than just coincidentally happened at the last) His prime target last year was probably the Betfair hurdle but this year it's all about the champion.Henderson and AP's policy of teaching him to settle and race properly could well pay dividends and he has the most potential for improvement.

Hurricane Fly imo is extremely ground dependent and yet punters point to wins on good ground (including his champion hurdle win against Peddlers Cross).This is a grave misunderstanding as although he can get away with good ground,there is no doubt that he appreciates soft ground. Cheltenham's policy of over watering on the first day is to his advantage,he also has a superior hurdling technique to all of the challengers but he doesn't have the sheer speed imo if the GROUND IS GOOD.He got away with it last year through a combination of over-watering and the over forceful tactics on ROR,the fly was badly outpaced last year on even the soft ground at one stage.

Sprinter Sacre (2.38)-Surely very unlikely to run at the festival now,Henderson has become very risk averse with his stars and won't take any chances.Sire de Grugy imo is better with some cut in the ground which is not guaranteed,Cue Card would certainly be interesting if they dropped back in trip and let him bowl along in front.

Is Champagne Fever a definite runner in the Arkle?There must be a fair chance that he will be stepped up to the Jewson,Felix Yonger should definitely be running in the Arkle.I wouldn't like to see CF taking Defy logic on for the early pace in the Arkle-a fascinating race from a pace angle.AS already stated though CF is a different preposition at the festival.

I found it tough going over the 4 days and feel I was lucky to keep losses at what I did considering how wrong I got some of the races. The following I think I have found out.

1. The Gigginstown operation need a change of No.1 rider. Davy Russell is average at best.
2. Danny Mullins is so bad it may even be a relief to him to be replaced.
3. Re both of the above it suprises me that men who are successful in business and could not tolerate such incompetence at work do so at play.
4. The Lexus was the race of the year and a joy to watch. Bobs Worth will take a lot of beating in March if turning up in that shape with the distance and the track in his favour. Still hope for Gigginstown though-both their horses ran well esp. First Lieutenant and maybe SDC needed the run.
5. All the Champion Hurdle contenders that ran will retain hope for March. No bubble has been totally burst yet.
6. Mikey Fogarty is going to be a top tier jockey.

your reading of the TNO/MTOY race result is laughable at best NO MORE HEROES what great name for a horse
good to hear you had a very successful meeting.

Jaysus KL, we were all in the sh1t on here and could have done with a dig out over the past 4 days.

Was in a lovely position early Stephen's Day from a couple of weeks good results and promtly pissed it up the wall. High point of the week was My Tent or Yours, low point was definitely Moyle Park as well as not having the bottle to have a meaningful bet on Renard at Cepstow who hosed in at 7/1. I'd say I got back about half of what I did on Moyle Park which is a stupid way of going about things. My chin had been cracked by then.

Funny how we are all sick of the Mullins steamroller, but it all comes undone at the time of year most are coiled like springs to lump on. Maybe he has had a bug?, or maybe other trainers should be braver at other stages in the year?

One final thing, I think the Felix Younger race at Limerick bore a lot of resemblance to zuska and Glens melody last year in how considerate they were. The lad did a nice job for simenon in the far east, but I would be a bit circumspect backing a Mullins market negative in the lower tier Christmas Graded races again. I think Felix Younger has a cracking chance in the arkle as I can't see anything in it that would get him at it till very late.

Defy Logic looks a lightly made horse to me and I think he completely got away with it at leopardstown and was lucky not to tip over. He is very talented and thus never one to right off but I could see him coming to grief at Cheltenham as he was lucky not to last week.

Neill     I see your theory re B Bob is starting to take shape , due     to run tomorrow over hurdles

Hopefully taking shape indeed workrider although Lord Wndemere hasn't done much for the form of the staying novices, I'm going as much on what he must have been doing at home.

keen leader     29 Dec 13 22:05 

reflections...not after timing, won every day

Ozymandius 30 Dec 13 11:25 Joined: 01 Jul 11 |
Topic/replies: 6,894 | Blogger: Ozymandius's blog
Jaysus KL, we were all in the sh1t on here and could have done with a dig out over the past 4 days.

2 staggering statements,is this the end......has ozy reached the end....

Keen Leader,

Is this Up For Review this year ?

Id say Bamburys are well pleased with the turn out for their grade 2 hrdle tomorrow.The champion trainer was on squealing looking to double prizemoney at the major jumps meetings and he had nothing to show up for a 27k first prize tomorrow.Should be running for rosettes the ****s.

Catch Me ifyoucan  • December 26, 2014 12:53 PM GMT 
Keen Leader,
Is this Up For Review this year ?

4.50 in Naas tomorrow

*Sunday

By Purpose is spot on, if prize-money went up, all that would happen is that the bloodstock industry(point guys/stores) would charge more for the horses. Also, Mullins said racing at the bottom end is dying, how does upping the money at Cheltenham aid the small dual-purpose trainer at Dundalk tonight.

Comparing with the French system is not like with like, it's a tote set-up. They (horsemen) mightn't like the bookie "take-out merchants" as they call them here, but the likes of Ruby are more than happy to take the coin from P owers which is actually a tacit acceptance of the status quo.

Luca Cumani said it, and I don't even like the guy, but no owner should go into Racing expecting to make money, it is a pastime, a leisure pursuit and that costs money.

By Purpose is right,dreadful turnout but the prize money should be reduced because of the lack of runners.

Thought Willie Mullins let himself down with his comments on prize money,he never suggested where this huge increase was going to come from.

Even I find myself in agreement with Purpose , the thing is Trainers dont even have the ground as a excuse ..Shamefull the amount of runners for such huge money  ..I hope they remember this the next time they go cap in hand with the begging bowl....

Agree with you Neill that no owner should expect to make money out racing but that doesnt mean they should be getting fooked over either.

Too many soft Grade Ones, and too many nothing Grade Twos. Limit the amount of them, make them worth the label, and then by all means have the pot worthwhile.

The lower grade stuff is a much bigger problem, yet doesn't seem to get as much attention. The rich get richer....

Yeah I'm probably going a bit far there BP. As Callit has just said there, graded horses in Ireland are exceptionally well catered for. They'd like a little more money for their trouble but by and large Ireland is a good deal for a man with a good horse.

My thing would be, if a horse could win maybe two races a year, that they would cover all of their expenses. Money here is good relative to the UK, but we are still a bit away from that.

Nothing to stop a graded horse going for the Nakayama Grand Jump or France if they want to go pot chasing, either. Flat racing in Europe is about prestige, Cheltenham is the same way I guess.

Up For Review any word KL