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Pricing up a race yourself.

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Replies: 55
By:
pa lapsy
When: 22 Oct 13 12:04
Good morning Distant View,being honest i,m not sure where they come from,they were taken off the ATR site by me as that is the first to have shown them. You are correct,they are shocking tissues at times.
Not hard to get the "mistakes" but what i was trying to do is get the price i think they should be.
By:
Distant View
When: 22 Oct 13 12:16
Morning pa.

I am making no reference to you in my previous comment and your pricing has seemed to be almost spot on when I have looked.

It is the fact that a firm stands over these (I am guessing it is the PA) and someone is paid to input them and they are happy with what is produced. I remember looking at tissues on the Sporting Life site as well and they were dreadful. They may be pulled from the same source but to be honest I left them alone as the chances of a bookmaker replicating their mistake is very slim and that was the only use that I used to have for them.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 22 Oct 13 12:40
Granted the books seldom make howlers and very quick to cut when wrong, still imo particulary lately given the weakness of the overnight exchanges the onus is being put back on their compilers, might be way off the mark(that happens) think they are a bit more vulnerable.
Thread was trying to be simple based on Paper price-Your price-Book price and whether there are mistakes in your pricing or the books, as said before realise this is bread and butter to serious punters but really think it is a good exercise for any punter to try and master in whatever they bet on.
By:
Distant View
When: 22 Oct 13 12:44
It's a great exercise and it is far from an easy task. If you can master it, the value will be clear for you and it is just a matter of getting on at that stage.

Will watch Navan prices with interest. Just trying to get these two events sorted in the Far East at the moment.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 22 Oct 13 13:02
For whatever reason the ATR prices have moved Snakes and Ladders to 3/1 and Zip Wire to 10/1.
GL with the golf, will check out the swot.
By:
dj876
When: 24 Oct 13 00:02
PA/..."At Navan tomorrow,
Zip Wire 5.35 i think will be nearer 7/2 than the 7/1 paper price.
Snakes and Ladders 4.15 think will be 7/4 rather than the 11/4."

                     ISP   BSP 
Snakes and Ladders   2.75  3.14
Zip Wire             3.75  4.38

Not,too shabby WD
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 24 Oct 13 00:17
Pa Lapsy has got it right every time.

I wouldn't even attempt to price those races because I wouldn't know where to start.

Its hard to credit that Pa Lapsy got some grief from Rocketfingers for this thread

As an aside I thought Snakes And Ladders got a very poor ride,went up the bad ground on the rail when he could so easily have stuck to the outside.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 24 Oct 13 07:46
Got the prices, that was it. Took 11/2 ew with PP small for Zip Wire also went in later ew agsin at 9/2, Got 3/1 on Snakes and Ladders,win only. A disappointing day overall for me.
PP were first to price the race(5.25),Boils followed a few minutes later,(replicated on the other race priced up overnight) The other 3 handicaps were put up at 9.30ish,the exchange had barely a £100 matched at this time.
Thought S+L was a long way back and while Fran could or maybe should have stayed on the outer, he did make up a considerable bit of ground by cutting the corner turning in,hard to know what if but not sure he would have beaten the winner no matter what he did.
Thanks lads anyway,ye get the point of the thread, recovery mission maybe/hopefully on Saturday at Leopardstown.
By:
workrider
When: 24 Oct 13 10:15
great stuff Pa , top pricing there , as has been said already , a hard thing to do . I'm sure Rocket will be along shortly to add his congratulations ....Even he will acknowledge your feat as beyond the call of duty ....
By:
pa lapsy
When: 02 Nov 13 20:12
Suppose its a race to keep away from still really like this horse as an individual whether he is good enough for this remains to be seen.
4.10 Leopardstown
A few cross channel raiders with the Ellison pair and Nicholls Be Perfect. Be Perfect won a 2m2f C4 at York so no trouble with the trip,not sure is that form good enough ,the booking of Conor Hayes is a bit puzzling however but presumed he agreed to the ride right after the York race.Ellisons runners can,t be dismissed either,Saptapadi is running off 90 having raced off 109,Totalize was way behind Saptapadi on penultimate run,same connections going for an ambitious double having bagged the Irish Ceasarawitch. Hard to weigh up the 3 of them as they lack consistency.
Of the Irish Face Value set a fierce pace at Navan and was collared late on by Quick Jack with Rawnaq behind, ought to be confirmed by the weights.Sho Girl could have been put away for this,has a chance on that Listowel run. Call me Bubbles,Majenta,
Truthwillsetufree and Bayan all look much of a muchness by particulary the Irish Ces,have my doubts whether that was a great race.Ancient Sands is in great form coming there cruising in his last few races,surely the penalties will catch him this time.
As said through the thread really like Stony Grey,s attitude,he battles,now 11lb better with Ancient Sands for a head. Wears 1st time cheekpieces,no problem with ground and the 2f extra should suit along with the way i think the race will be run( ie Face Value probably will set a strong pace again and Stony Grey will be prominent.
The English horses are an unknown but find it hard to see Stony not being placed amongst the Irish. Quick Jack is dangerous on a line through Zip Wire and worse 50/1 shots than Face value in the hope he slips his field but the selection is Stony Grey EW at 12/1 with PP.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 02 Nov 13 20:16
Any chance of formatting that Pa? I want to glance at it and understand what you are saying within say, 2 seconds..and I can't...
By:
freddiek
When: 02 Nov 13 20:29
any chance u could get a life, Oz?
By:
kingrat
When: 03 Nov 13 13:55
cheers old pa .i am making my moveWink
By:
pa lapsy
When: 03 Nov 13 14:00
You made your move last night and it wasn,t much good to you. Your arrival on here is the end of the thread anyway.
By:
kingrat
When: 03 Nov 13 19:14
ul old pa.was told it was abit on its toes,maybe something will come to light after the vet has a look.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 13 Apr 19 22:56
...
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