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pa lapsy
27 Sep 13 22:01
Date Joined: 06 Apr 09
| Topic/replies: 12,625 | Blogger: pa lapsy's blog
Looking at the 2.40 Curragh on Sunday,think whoever has compiled the forecast for this is way off,not that unusual but how would you price it up?
           Paper Forecast  Mine
Minorette      7/4         7/2             
Tarfasha       3/1         15/8
My Titania     10/3        4/5
Chroussa       6/1         10/1
Bar            12/1        12/1

I might be well out but where?be afraid i,m going a bit big on My Titania.
Pause Switch to Standard View Pricing up a race yourself.
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Report paulie wallnuts September 27, 2013 10:11 PM BST
5/4 titania
9/4 tarfasha
5/1 minorette
12/1 chroussa
20 bar
Report Bigwillystyle September 27, 2013 10:14 PM BST
I would say Paulie is a lot closer the mark the patrick
Report pa lapsy September 27, 2013 10:16 PM BST
Fair play Paulie,we both agree Minorette is a false fav, she could win but the other two look better than listed and Tarfasha seems to hold her through Ballybracka Queen.
Report silvergreaser September 28, 2013 9:07 AM BST
If you look at the form of the entire field there seems to be some sort of form that ties them all together through different horses.

I certainly wouldn't have a maiden winner at 4/5 Pa, visually impressive that she was if you were a bookie in the ring I don't think you would have too many takers.

I'll have a little bit of that 10/1 you have on Chroussa, nothing wrong with her narrow 2nd to arguably unlucky Moyglare 3rd Tapestry.
Report pa lapsy September 28, 2013 10:23 AM BST
Twas a stingy book from me to start with Silver,maybe biased towards my fancy(s) rather than being neutral.Paulies 5/4 is more likely nearer as while My Titania done it well no one has franked that race since.Probably right also with Minorette,if the bare 8 start think Chroussa has a good chance of being in front of her through Tapestry and the double figures would make ew appeal though i,d be surprised if she won.
Report roadrunner46 September 28, 2013 1:35 PM BST
tarfasha 15/8
my titania 2/1
minorette 7/2
chroussa 11/2
bar 10/1
Report silvergreaser September 28, 2013 4:32 PM BST
The first to price up PP.

Tarfasha 15/8
My Tatania 5/2
Minorette 3/1
Chroussa 8/1
Diamond Stilettos 14/1
Chicago Gold 20/1
Colour Blue 20/1
Intense Debate 25/1

If they all hold their ground the 8/1 Chroussa looks a good ew bet.
Report pa lapsy September 28, 2013 4:54 PM BST
Thanks Silver,My Titania now cut to 2/1.Still think that is too big for her.
Excellent pricing up Roadrunner.
Report paulie wallnuts September 28, 2013 5:08 PM BST
just shows what paddies odds compiler knows.......absolutely zero.......big firm with a chimpanzee doing the prices.......any person who thought my titania and minorette ........would be nearly the same price........should never again price a race.......chroussa has no chance will be 12/1......but in reality its a 1000/ for diamond stilletos 14/ this ape getting paid to price these will be 50/ titania is a nap to be favourite.......anybody who thinks otherwise......hasnt a notion.........
Report pa lapsy September 28, 2013 5:44 PM BST
Waking up a bit now Paulie,7/4 now.
Report dj876 September 29, 2013 1:43 PM BST
I agree with Pa here and really fancy My Titanaia,filly that beat her on debut (Vallado) has won a decent prize since and although there is only limited form evidence for her Leopardstoen maiden success,visually it appeared to be a strong maiden.
U'd expect STS progeny to be improving types(considering he didn't run himself until mid July and endured his only defeat),she should improve further for step up in trip and John Oxx never rushes his 2 year olds.
The listed race that Minorette was placed in was only a fare one with exposed types like Ballybacka Queen(form lines with Tarfasha)in the mix. Tarfasha is also likely to improve for step back up in trip to 1 mile because she certainly stayed on well at Galway but I am Hoping she will be off it before My Titania(she will need to be).
Report dj876 September 29, 2013 2:47 PM BST
Wd Pa,hope you were on at some of those decent prices.
Report Mordin. September 29, 2013 2:48 PM BST
Well done Pa excellent Thread
Report pa lapsy September 29, 2013 2:53 PM BST
My Tatania 11/10
Tarfasha    2/1
Minorette   6/1
Chroussa    9/1
bar  14/1

Two things stuck out,the strength of My Titania and the weakness of Minorette,dare i say were obvious to anyone studying the race,have to agree with Paulie a shocking compilation of the "true" odds by the bookies compilers, smacked of ineptitude and laziness.
Well done Paulie a very good fist of making a proper book fairly quickly after the opening post,I,ve a feeling tis no fluke either and hope you were on at least at 2/1 or 7/4.
Thanks to all who put contributed with their views,i enjoyed the thread.
Report tips September 29, 2013 3:05 PM BST
wd winners excellent thread
Report wildmanfromborneo October 2, 2013 2:43 PM BST
Very interesting thread and fair play to Pa Lapsy for pricing the race to perfection.

Its very hard to price races as you have loads of horses to price and it only takes one or two mistakes although this was a Group 3 race so should have been easier.
Report pa lapsy October 8, 2013 12:49 PM BST
Thanks for the positive comments.
The 5.05 Navan on Wednesday is a race where the paper odds compiler has totally got it wrong again(not unusual as said above).
The 7/1 on Stony Grey think will probably be nearer 7/2.
The 33/1 on Mona Brown think will be around 8-10/1.
Will the books get it wrong?
Report wildmanfromborneo October 9, 2013 10:37 PM BST
Full many a gem of purest ray serene
The dark unfathomed caves of ocean bear
Full many a flower is born to blush unseen
And waste its sweetness on the desert air.

Once again Pa Lapsy gets everything right and the usual crew don't even notice

I think a job awaits at Paddy Power.
Report pa lapsy October 10, 2013 8:31 AM BST
Thanks very much Wildman, think i,d get "kilt" considering the rightful bad feeling towards pp on here at the moment.
Stony Grey would almost certainly have been around 7/2 except for the wholesale gamble on Zip Line,still while easy to say now believe the 7/1 was a rick for two reasons not factored in, the fairly substantial ring gamble at Listowel and Mr Oliver had enough meas in the horse to give him an entry in Sunday,s Cesareawich,though accept to counter that he had slight trip/ground worries. Fine game horse who finds all the same for a 3yo and could be an exciting one over hurdles.
A couple of races at the Curragh Sunday might be worth having a go at pricing up on Friday,suppose see how the entries pan out and we will try and have a crack.
Report pa lapsy October 11, 2013 2:15 PM BST
Curragh 2.25 Sunday.1m(Good)

       Paper Price      Mine
Chicago Girl  6/5       13/8
Dazzling     11/4       15/8
Intense Light 6/1       12/1
Flying Jib    8/1        9/2
Leafy Suburb  8/1        8/1

On first looking at this thought the paper prices were generally in line mainly because of Chicago Girls running on 2nd to My Titania but looking at her past races think its very possible she could be a bit of a dodge,seemed to veer slightly at the death in the above race,her tail swishing at both Killarney and Tipperary was fairly extreme,no doubt she has the right man on but think she is a bit underpriced.
Dazzling was without doubt disappointing last time even with the interference,she was asked and didn,t look likely to find at that stage, held on that run by Chicago Girl on a line through both Ballybracka Queen and Minorette, however she is almost certainly better than that run.A O B thought she was green before her debut and was delighted with that win,thinks also she is a true 1m4f horse.for the sake of the race on Sunday think i would like to see her make the pace.
Flying Jib seemed to have improved at Dundalk by comprehensively turning the form around with Tap Dancing on their previous run, hard to know what to make of her but the manner of that win she couldn,t be dismissed. A big ask for the Bolger pair to win this on their debut.
In short maybe Dazzling,s run was too bad to be true and given Chicago Girls possible attitude problem i,d be leaning at Dazzling if the 11/4 was offered now.
All thoughts welcome in regards form and prices.
Report dj876 October 13, 2013 1:23 PM BST
Fairly bang on Pa,no strong opinion on the race.
Report pa lapsy October 13, 2013 1:28 PM BST
Bad race to have put up dj as only the 3 live chances,made a mess of the debutants,nothing new there(maybe needed roadrunner)
Ifs and buts now,Dazzling to disappoint again? Chicago Girl to show a quirk? Flying Jib to improve further? No bet for me,books got it fairly right putting it up yesterday.
Report dj876 October 13, 2013 1:35 PM BST
Not a race I will be getting involved,I don't think Dazzling disappointed lto-matched at 1.37 when interference took place.
Chicago Girl is the form pick but is still a maiden.
I generally discount Dundalk form(something that works reasonably well for me).
I think the race is priced correctly.
Report wildmanfromborneo October 14, 2013 10:55 AM BST
Pa Lapsy gets it right again.
On all five horses Pa Lapsy price was closer to the mark,he did also point out Chicago Girl was quirky Dazzling was disappointing and Flying Jib an improver.
Report wildmanfromborneo October 16, 2013 7:52 PM BST
This is the thread that Rocketfingers reckons was so wide of the mark it was embarrassing.

All three races are priced correctly

My Titania is priced correctly at 4/5 because he said it would win,the 5/2 quoted was just wrong but the 2/1 was widely available and snaffled by some here.

The next race he correctly says Stony Grey is wrongly priced at 7/1 should be 7/2 he opens up around 7/1 and is backed in to 11/2 Joe then goes and does something Rocketfingers selection never do,he wins.

The last race he again gets it right,disagrees with the 8/1 Flying Jib and puts it in at 9/2 that also wins.

Pricing a race is tough and too hard for me but you got to admire the contributions here.
Report Rocketfingers October 16, 2013 10:02 PM BST
Pa Lapsy reckoned a fav was 4/5 when it went off at 5/4 or 6/5 and he wants it pointed out to him what was wrong with the way he priced the race? You could not make it up.
Report pa lapsy October 16, 2013 10:12 PM BST
The sp of My Titania was 11/10, I don,t care whether it was 4/5 or 5/4, all that mattered were the bookmakers were offering 2/1 which was the main point of the thread.
Report Rocketfingers October 16, 2013 10:14 PM BST
"Pricing up a race yourself" maybe i'm wrong here but is that not the thread title Pa? Confused
Report wildmanfromborneo October 17, 2013 10:37 AM BST
DJ876 Mordin and Tips have all correctly praised this great thread.

The pricing of Pa Lapsy on this thread has been stunningly accurate.

The winner finding has also been impressive.

One poster with a short attention span thinks its a poor thread and is saying he got everything wrong,tis he that's wrong.
Report pa lapsy October 17, 2013 12:14 PM BST
Maybe the Dazzling race wasn,t great as she with a very late move went off 11/10 and the debutants were way out. The form reading was okay.
The thread was put up in good grace and meant to try and correlate form and prices between the forum, Paulie and DJ did so very well,accept that can be fairly elementary for more serious punters but i sincerely believe in the exercise of trying to price before looking at the prices,particulary with the exchanges being so weak at the moment putting more onus on the the books to compile their own.
Mostly they are right and a big discrepancy can show you are reading the form wrongly.
Anyway Rocket accept i,m not the greatest scribe but to suggest i am lying on other threads of anything i wrote on here is wrong.
Report dj876 October 17, 2013 11:31 PM BST
I presume Rocketfingers is only on the Wind up here.When the Books were pricing My Titania at 2/1 -Pa correctly stated that she should be more around even money,to be debating whether it finishes at 4/5 or 11/10 is extremely pedantic in particular when you're talking about a couple of days before a race.As we all know Markets aren't 100% efficient and there is always a subjective nature to them.The fact that My Titania won the race further vindicates Pa's book if anything.
Report Mordin. October 17, 2013 11:48 PM BST
Excellent Pa, any race this weekend you can price up?
Report wildmanfromborneo October 17, 2013 11:51 PM BST
The sad thing is he is not on the wind up,the fact is he posted twenty odd replies about this on another thread all berating Pa Lapsy and has great difficulty following gambling threads.
Report dj876 October 17, 2013 11:52 PM BST
Champions day thread for Newmarket would be interesting.There is a lack of threads on this forum(understandably maybe)on here on the big weekend UK races.
Report pa lapsy October 17, 2013 11:55 PM BST
Thanks DJ, Mordin we,ll have a look, the Woodland at Naas looks competitive and there is a listed race there as well, if you have a fancy/half fancy something yourself after the decs are out tomorrow don,t be shy in putting it up even the name and we can try and work out a price for it/race.
Report pa lapsy October 18, 2013 12:08 AM BST
Ascot on Saturday DJ another meeting with a fair few Irish entries,be another good meeting.
Report dj876 October 18, 2013 12:10 AM BST
Ascot apologies .......Bed time,Grammar shocking in second sentence too.
Report pa lapsy October 22, 2013 11:48 AM BST
Naas was hard over the weekend,Stony Grey ran a terrific race in the Woodland,has entries this weekend and next and given his style is starting to look an ew bet to nothing despite the competitiveness of these big handicaps.
At Navan tomorrow,
Zip Wire 5.35 i think will be nearer 7/2 than the 7/1 paper price.
Snakes and Ladders 4.15 think will be 7/4 rather than the 11/4.
Zip Wire was eye catching against Stony Grey last time,was the subject of a fair gamble but race wide and got going a bit late, J M won,t have him so far behind tomorrow.Ran okay on debut to say the soft/heavy should be alright. Going will suit Placere and her last last run with Ancient Sands behind reads well,dangerous.Rawnaq and Quick Jack also have a chance,Whatuthink coming back from an absense could set a strong pace.
Snakes and Ladders did nothing fast at Listowel last time ridden a long way out,still stayed on well and that run should be enough in this field.
In the 2.35 see Bubbly Bellini is declared,did him over the weekend and ran a stinker.a race i,ll leave go as hate doing a horse that has a disappointing run even though there may well have been a valid excuse,Jumbo Steps think could run well in that also,probably will just concentrate on the top two and see how the books price them up.
Report Distant View October 22, 2013 11:52 AM BST
Which paper price do you refer to Pa?

Is this Irish Racing content? Is it the stiff generated by the PA?

The tissues that have appeared there for years and what appears in the daily papers are farcical and an embarrassment to whoever it is that stands over them.
Report pa lapsy October 22, 2013 12:04 PM BST
Good morning Distant View,being honest i,m not sure where they come from,they were taken off the ATR site by me as that is the first to have shown them. You are correct,they are shocking tissues at times.
Not hard to get the "mistakes" but what i was trying to do is get the price i think they should be.
Report Distant View October 22, 2013 12:16 PM BST
Morning pa.

I am making no reference to you in my previous comment and your pricing has seemed to be almost spot on when I have looked.

It is the fact that a firm stands over these (I am guessing it is the PA) and someone is paid to input them and they are happy with what is produced. I remember looking at tissues on the Sporting Life site as well and they were dreadful. They may be pulled from the same source but to be honest I left them alone as the chances of a bookmaker replicating their mistake is very slim and that was the only use that I used to have for them.
Report pa lapsy October 22, 2013 12:40 PM BST
Granted the books seldom make howlers and very quick to cut when wrong, still imo particulary lately given the weakness of the overnight exchanges the onus is being put back on their compilers, might be way off the mark(that happens) think they are a bit more vulnerable.
Thread was trying to be simple based on Paper price-Your price-Book price and whether there are mistakes in your pricing or the books, as said before realise this is bread and butter to serious punters but really think it is a good exercise for any punter to try and master in whatever they bet on.
Report Distant View October 22, 2013 12:44 PM BST
It's a great exercise and it is far from an easy task. If you can master it, the value will be clear for you and it is just a matter of getting on at that stage.

Will watch Navan prices with interest. Just trying to get these two events sorted in the Far East at the moment.
Report pa lapsy October 22, 2013 1:02 PM BST
For whatever reason the ATR prices have moved Snakes and Ladders to 3/1 and Zip Wire to 10/1.
GL with the golf, will check out the swot.
Report dj876 October 24, 2013 12:02 AM BST
PA/..."At Navan tomorrow,
Zip Wire 5.35 i think will be nearer 7/2 than the 7/1 paper price.
Snakes and Ladders 4.15 think will be 7/4 rather than the 11/4."

                     ISP   BSP 
Snakes and Ladders   2.75  3.14
Zip Wire             3.75  4.38

Not,too shabby WD
Report wildmanfromborneo October 24, 2013 12:17 AM BST
Pa Lapsy has got it right every time.

I wouldn't even attempt to price those races because I wouldn't know where to start.

Its hard to credit that Pa Lapsy got some grief from Rocketfingers for this thread

As an aside I thought Snakes And Ladders got a very poor ride,went up the bad ground on the rail when he could so easily have stuck to the outside.
Report pa lapsy October 24, 2013 7:46 AM BST
Got the prices, that was it. Took 11/2 ew with PP small for Zip Wire also went in later ew agsin at 9/2, Got 3/1 on Snakes and Ladders,win only. A disappointing day overall for me.
PP were first to price the race(5.25),Boils followed a few minutes later,(replicated on the other race priced up overnight) The other 3 handicaps were put up at 9.30ish,the exchange had barely a £100 matched at this time.
Thought S+L was a long way back and while Fran could or maybe should have stayed on the outer, he did make up a considerable bit of ground by cutting the corner turning in,hard to know what if but not sure he would have beaten the winner no matter what he did.
Thanks lads anyway,ye get the point of the thread, recovery mission maybe/hopefully on Saturday at Leopardstown.
Report workrider October 24, 2013 10:15 AM BST
great stuff Pa , top pricing there , as has been said already , a hard thing to do . I'm sure Rocket will be along shortly to add his congratulations ....Even he will acknowledge your feat as beyond the call of duty ....
Report pa lapsy November 2, 2013 7:12 PM GMT
Suppose its a race to keep away from still really like this horse as an individual whether he is good enough for this remains to be seen.
4.10 Leopardstown
A few cross channel raiders with the Ellison pair and Nicholls Be Perfect. Be Perfect won a 2m2f C4 at York so no trouble with the trip,not sure is that form good enough ,the booking of Conor Hayes is a bit puzzling however but presumed he agreed to the ride right after the York race.Ellisons runners can,t be dismissed either,Saptapadi is running off 90 having raced off 109,Totalize was way behind Saptapadi on penultimate run,same connections going for an ambitious double having bagged the Irish Ceasarawitch. Hard to weigh up the 3 of them as they lack consistency.
Of the Irish Face Value set a fierce pace at Navan and was collared late on by Quick Jack with Rawnaq behind, ought to be confirmed by the weights.Sho Girl could have been put away for this,has a chance on that Listowel run. Call me Bubbles,Majenta,
Truthwillsetufree and Bayan all look much of a muchness by particulary the Irish Ces,have my doubts whether that was a great race.Ancient Sands is in great form coming there cruising in his last few races,surely the penalties will catch him this time.
As said through the thread really like Stony Grey,s attitude,he battles,now 11lb better with Ancient Sands for a head. Wears 1st time cheekpieces,no problem with ground and the 2f extra should suit along with the way i think the race will be run( ie Face Value probably will set a strong pace again and Stony Grey will be prominent.
The English horses are an unknown but find it hard to see Stony not being placed amongst the Irish. Quick Jack is dangerous on a line through Zip Wire and worse 50/1 shots than Face value in the hope he slips his field but the selection is Stony Grey EW at 12/1 with PP.
Report Ozymandius November 2, 2013 7:16 PM GMT
Any chance of formatting that Pa? I want to glance at it and understand what you are saying within say, 2 seconds..and I can't...
Report freddiek November 2, 2013 7:29 PM GMT
any chance u could get a life, Oz?
Report kingrat November 3, 2013 1:55 PM GMT
cheers old pa .i am making my moveWink
Report pa lapsy November 3, 2013 2:00 PM GMT
You made your move last night and it wasn,t much good to you. Your arrival on here is the end of the thread anyway.
Report kingrat November 3, 2013 7:14 PM GMT
ul old pa.was told it was abit on its toes,maybe something will come to light after the vet has a look.
Report roadrunner46 April 13, 2019 10:56 PM BST
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