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pa lapsy
27 Sep 13 22:01
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Date Joined: 06 Apr 09
| Topic/replies: 12,634 | Blogger: pa lapsy's blog
Looking at the 2.40 Curragh on Sunday,think whoever has compiled the forecast for this is way off,not that unusual but how would you price it up?
           Paper Forecast  Mine
Minorette      7/4         7/2             
Tarfasha       3/1         15/8
My Titania     10/3        4/5
Chroussa       6/1         10/1
Bar            12/1        12/1

I might be well out but where?be afraid i,m going a bit big on My Titania.

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Replies: 55
By:
paulie wallnuts
When: 27 Sep 13 22:11
5/4 titania
9/4 tarfasha
5/1 minorette
12/1 chroussa
20 bar
By:
Bigwillystyle
When: 27 Sep 13 22:14
I would say Paulie is a lot closer the mark the patrick
By:
pa lapsy
When: 27 Sep 13 22:16
Fair play Paulie,we both agree Minorette is a false fav, she could win but the other two look better than listed and Tarfasha seems to hold her through Ballybracka Queen.
By:
silvergreaser
When: 28 Sep 13 09:07
If you look at the form of the entire field there seems to be some sort of form that ties them all together through different horses.

I certainly wouldn't have a maiden winner at 4/5 Pa, visually impressive that she was if you were a bookie in the ring I don't think you would have too many takers.

I'll have a little bit of that 10/1 you have on Chroussa, nothing wrong with her narrow 2nd to arguably unlucky Moyglare 3rd Tapestry.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 28 Sep 13 10:23
Twas a stingy book from me to start with Silver,maybe biased towards my fancy(s) rather than being neutral.Paulies 5/4 is more likely nearer as while My Titania done it well no one has franked that race since.Probably right also with Minorette,if the bare 8 start think Chroussa has a good chance of being in front of her through Tapestry and the double figures would make ew appeal though i,d be surprised if she won.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 28 Sep 13 13:35
tarfasha 15/8
my titania 2/1
minorette 7/2
chroussa 11/2
bar 10/1
By:
silvergreaser
When: 28 Sep 13 16:32
The first to price up PP.

Tarfasha 15/8
My Tatania 5/2
Minorette 3/1
Chroussa 8/1
Diamond Stilettos 14/1
Chicago Gold 20/1
Colour Blue 20/1
Intense Debate 25/1

If they all hold their ground the 8/1 Chroussa looks a good ew bet.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 28 Sep 13 16:54
Thanks Silver,My Titania now cut to 2/1.Still think that is too big for her.
Excellent pricing up Roadrunner.
By:
paulie wallnuts
When: 28 Sep 13 17:08
just shows what paddies odds compiler knows.......absolutely zero.......big firm with a chimpanzee doing the prices.......any person who thought my titania and minorette ........would be nearly the same price........should never again price a race.......chroussa has no chance either.......it will be 12/1......but in reality its a 1000/1.......as for diamond stilletos 14/1........is this ape getting paid to price these races.......it will be 50/1.......my titania is a nap to be favourite.......anybody who thinks otherwise......hasnt a notion.........
By:
pa lapsy
When: 28 Sep 13 17:44
Waking up a bit now Paulie,7/4 now.
By:
dj876
When: 29 Sep 13 13:43
I agree with Pa here and really fancy My Titanaia,filly that beat her on debut (Vallado) has won a decent prize since and although there is only limited form evidence for her Leopardstoen maiden success,visually it appeared to be a strong maiden.
U'd expect STS progeny to be improving types(considering he didn't run himself until mid July and endured his only defeat),she should improve further for step up in trip and John Oxx never rushes his 2 year olds.
The listed race that Minorette was placed in was only a fare one with exposed types like Ballybacka Queen(form lines with Tarfasha)in the mix. Tarfasha is also likely to improve for step back up in trip to 1 mile because she certainly stayed on well at Galway but I am Hoping she will be off it before My Titania(she will need to be).
By:
dj876
When: 29 Sep 13 14:47
Wd Pa,hope you were on at some of those decent prices.
By:
Mordin.
When: 29 Sep 13 14:48
Well done Pa excellent Thread
By:
pa lapsy
When: 29 Sep 13 14:53
My Tatania 11/10
Tarfasha    2/1
Minorette   6/1
Chroussa    9/1
bar  14/1

Two things stuck out,the strength of My Titania and the weakness of Minorette,dare i say were obvious to anyone studying the race,have to agree with Paulie a shocking compilation of the "true" odds by the bookies compilers, smacked of ineptitude and laziness.
Well done Paulie a very good fist of making a proper book fairly quickly after the opening post,I,ve a feeling tis no fluke either and hope you were on at least at 2/1 or 7/4.
Thanks to all who put contributed with their views,i enjoyed the thread.
By:
tips
When: 29 Sep 13 15:05
wd winners excellent thread
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 02 Oct 13 14:43
Very interesting thread and fair play to Pa Lapsy for pricing the race to perfection.

Its very hard to price races as you have loads of horses to price and it only takes one or two mistakes although this was a Group 3 race so should have been easier.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 08 Oct 13 12:49
Thanks for the positive comments.
The 5.05 Navan on Wednesday is a race where the paper odds compiler has totally got it wrong again(not unusual as said above).
The 7/1 on Stony Grey think will probably be nearer 7/2.
The 33/1 on Mona Brown think will be around 8-10/1.
Will the books get it wrong?
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 09 Oct 13 22:37
Full many a gem of purest ray serene
The dark unfathomed caves of ocean bear
Full many a flower is born to blush unseen
And waste its sweetness on the desert air.

Once again Pa Lapsy gets everything right and the usual crew don't even notice

I think a job awaits at Paddy Power.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 10 Oct 13 08:31
Thanks very much Wildman, think i,d get "kilt" considering the rightful bad feeling towards pp on here at the moment.
Stony Grey would almost certainly have been around 7/2 except for the wholesale gamble on Zip Line,still while easy to say now believe the 7/1 was a rick for two reasons not factored in, the fairly substantial ring gamble at Listowel and Mr Oliver had enough meas in the horse to give him an entry in Sunday,s Cesareawich,though accept to counter that he had slight trip/ground worries. Fine game horse who finds all the same for a 3yo and could be an exciting one over hurdles.
A couple of races at the Curragh Sunday might be worth having a go at pricing up on Friday,suppose see how the entries pan out and we will try and have a crack.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 11 Oct 13 14:15
Curragh 2.25 Sunday.1m(Good)

       Paper Price      Mine
Chicago Girl  6/5       13/8
Dazzling     11/4       15/8
Intense Light 6/1       12/1
Flying Jib    8/1        9/2
Leafy Suburb  8/1        8/1

On first looking at this thought the paper prices were generally in line mainly because of Chicago Girls running on 2nd to My Titania but looking at her past races think its very possible she could be a bit of a dodge,seemed to veer slightly at the death in the above race,her tail swishing at both Killarney and Tipperary was fairly extreme,no doubt she has the right man on but think she is a bit underpriced.
Dazzling was without doubt disappointing last time even with the interference,she was asked and didn,t look likely to find at that stage, held on that run by Chicago Girl on a line through both Ballybracka Queen and Minorette, however she is almost certainly better than that run.A O B thought she was green before her debut and was delighted with that win,thinks also she is a true 1m4f horse.for the sake of the race on Sunday think i would like to see her make the pace.
Flying Jib seemed to have improved at Dundalk by comprehensively turning the form around with Tap Dancing on their previous run, hard to know what to make of her but the manner of that win she couldn,t be dismissed. A big ask for the Bolger pair to win this on their debut.
In short maybe Dazzling,s run was too bad to be true and given Chicago Girls possible attitude problem i,d be leaning at Dazzling if the 11/4 was offered now.
All thoughts welcome in regards form and prices.
By:
dj876
When: 13 Oct 13 13:23
Fairly bang on Pa,no strong opinion on the race.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 13 Oct 13 13:28
Bad race to have put up dj as only the 3 live chances,made a mess of the debutants,nothing new there(maybe needed roadrunner)
Ifs and buts now,Dazzling to disappoint again? Chicago Girl to show a quirk? Flying Jib to improve further? No bet for me,books got it fairly right putting it up yesterday.
By:
dj876
When: 13 Oct 13 13:35
Not a race I will be getting involved,I don't think Dazzling disappointed lto-matched at 1.37 when interference took place.
Chicago Girl is the form pick but is still a maiden.
I generally discount Dundalk form(something that works reasonably well for me).
I think the race is priced correctly.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 14 Oct 13 10:55
Pa Lapsy gets it right again.
On all five horses Pa Lapsy price was closer to the mark,he did also point out Chicago Girl was quirky Dazzling was disappointing and Flying Jib an improver.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 16 Oct 13 19:52
This is the thread that Rocketfingers reckons was so wide of the mark it was embarrassing.

All three races are priced correctly

My Titania is priced correctly at 4/5 because he said it would win,the 5/2 quoted was just wrong but the 2/1 was widely available and snaffled by some here.

The next race he correctly says Stony Grey is wrongly priced at 7/1 should be 7/2 he opens up around 7/1 and is backed in to 11/2 Joe then goes and does something Rocketfingers selection never do,he wins.

The last race he again gets it right,disagrees with the 8/1 Flying Jib and puts it in at 9/2 that also wins.

Pricing a race is tough and too hard for me but you got to admire the contributions here.
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 16 Oct 13 22:02
Pa Lapsy reckoned a fav was 4/5 when it went off at 5/4 or 6/5 and he wants it pointed out to him what was wrong with the way he priced the race? You could not make it up.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 16 Oct 13 22:12
The sp of My Titania was 11/10, I don,t care whether it was 4/5 or 5/4, all that mattered were the bookmakers were offering 2/1 which was the main point of the thread.
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 16 Oct 13 22:14
"Pricing up a race yourself" maybe i'm wrong here but is that not the thread title Pa? Confused
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 17 Oct 13 10:37
DJ876 Mordin and Tips have all correctly praised this great thread.

The pricing of Pa Lapsy on this thread has been stunningly accurate.

The winner finding has also been impressive.

One poster with a short attention span thinks its a poor thread and is saying he got everything wrong,tis he that's wrong.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 17 Oct 13 12:14
Maybe the Dazzling race wasn,t great as she with a very late move went off 11/10 and the debutants were way out. The form reading was okay.
The thread was put up in good grace and meant to try and correlate form and prices between the forum, Paulie and DJ did so very well,accept that can be fairly elementary for more serious punters but i sincerely believe in the exercise of trying to price before looking at the prices,particulary with the exchanges being so weak at the moment putting more onus on the the books to compile their own.
Mostly they are right and a big discrepancy can show you are reading the form wrongly.
Anyway Rocket accept i,m not the greatest scribe but to suggest i am lying on other threads of anything i wrote on here is wrong.
By:
dj876
When: 17 Oct 13 23:31
I presume Rocketfingers is only on the Wind up here.When the Books were pricing My Titania at 2/1 -Pa correctly stated that she should be more around even money,to be debating whether it finishes at 4/5 or 11/10 is extremely pedantic in particular when you're talking about a couple of days before a race.As we all know Markets aren't 100% efficient and there is always a subjective nature to them.The fact that My Titania won the race further vindicates Pa's book if anything.
By:
Mordin.
When: 17 Oct 13 23:48
Excellent Pa, any race this weekend you can price up?
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 17 Oct 13 23:51
The sad thing is he is not on the wind up,the fact is he posted twenty odd replies about this on another thread all berating Pa Lapsy and has great difficulty following gambling threads.
By:
dj876
When: 17 Oct 13 23:52
Champions day thread for Newmarket would be interesting.There is a lack of threads on this forum(understandably maybe)on here on the big weekend UK races.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 17 Oct 13 23:55
Thanks DJ, Mordin we,ll have a look, the Woodland at Naas looks competitive and there is a listed race there as well, if you have a fancy/half fancy something yourself after the decs are out tomorrow don,t be shy in putting it up even the name and we can try and work out a price for it/race.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 18 Oct 13 00:08
Ascot on Saturday DJ another meeting with a fair few Irish entries,be another good meeting.
By:
dj876
When: 18 Oct 13 00:10
Ascot apologies .......Bed time,Grammar shocking in second sentence too.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 22 Oct 13 11:48
Naas was hard over the weekend,Stony Grey ran a terrific race in the Woodland,has entries this weekend and next and given his style is starting to look an ew bet to nothing despite the competitiveness of these big handicaps.
At Navan tomorrow,
Zip Wire 5.35 i think will be nearer 7/2 than the 7/1 paper price.
Snakes and Ladders 4.15 think will be 7/4 rather than the 11/4.
Zip Wire was eye catching against Stony Grey last time,was the subject of a fair gamble but race wide and got going a bit late, J M won,t have him so far behind tomorrow.Ran okay on debut to say the soft/heavy should be alright. Going will suit Placere and her last last run with Ancient Sands behind reads well,dangerous.Rawnaq and Quick Jack also have a chance,Whatuthink coming back from an absense could set a strong pace.
Snakes and Ladders did nothing fast at Listowel last time ridden a long way out,still stayed on well and that run should be enough in this field.
In the 2.35 see Bubbly Bellini is declared,did him over the weekend and ran a stinker.a race i,ll leave go as hate doing a horse that has a disappointing run even though there may well have been a valid excuse,Jumbo Steps think could run well in that also,probably will just concentrate on the top two and see how the books price them up.
By:
Distant View
When: 22 Oct 13 11:52
Which paper price do you refer to Pa?

Is this Irish Racing content? Is it the stiff generated by the PA?

The tissues that have appeared there for years and what appears in the daily papers are farcical and an embarrassment to whoever it is that stands over them.
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