Irish Sports
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14 Jun 13
08:59
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Date Joined:
30 Nov 10
This is probably a Madra ina chodladh that I should let lie but surely he is a lay for this race.
I am nearly cured of this laying although watching Reply and Tickled Pink getting beat last night was no help but Dawn Approach has to be a lay again.
It's obvious to me that Dawn Approach was trained for the Derby at the insistence of Sheikh Mohammed this didnt work out,a decision was made to give him a rest but somehow there has been a change of heart,this also means he hasn't been trained for Ascot and good an all as Jim Bolger is I don't think you can win a race of this calibre as an afterthought.
I thought Dawn Approach showed some temperament in the Dewhurst,he showed it again at Epsom I think he might show it at Ascot as well.
New Approach is the sire of the moment but he had some temperament issues and I think his stock are showing the same,they all seem a bit quirky to me.
I am nearly cured of this laying although watching Reply and Tickled Pink getting beat last night was no help but Dawn Approach has to be a lay again.
It's obvious to me that Dawn Approach was trained for the Derby at the insistence of Sheikh Mohammed this didnt work out,a decision was made to give him a rest but somehow there has been a change of heart,this also means he hasn't been trained for Ascot and good an all as Jim Bolger is I don't think you can win a race of this calibre as an afterthought.
I thought Dawn Approach showed some temperament in the Dewhurst,he showed it again at Epsom I think he might show it at Ascot as well.
New Approach is the sire of the moment but he had some temperament issues and I think his stock are showing the same,they all seem a bit quirky to me.
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Epsom was the time to lay him surely with doubts about the trip, had to prove he handled the track too.
Now he is back over a trip which looks his best, mainly against horses he destroyed at Newmarket and Magican who obviously wasn't thought well enough off at the time to even go for the 2000 Guineas. You may well get him beaten but you'll be laying somewhere in the 2.6 - 2.7odd region and there are surely better 8/13 - 4/7 shots |
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Is it hard in greyhound racing to run a dog in a race he hasn't been trained for,an afterthought in other words?
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I wouldn't be worried too much about it been an afterthought as far as Jim Bolger is concerned, his horses are trained hard and run often and yet seem to hold their form right through the season.
I'm a great believer in his training methods rather than the molly coddled cotton wool approach that Dermot Weld applies to his better horses. The ultra tough and consistent mare Alexander Goldrun ran 9 times in 2005 only disappointing once at Newmarket in October, but she finished off that year with a desperately unlucky run at Sha Tin in December. Leitir Mor is obviously going for the race to make sure there will be plenty of pace on early to try and insure there will be no re-ocurrence of the hard pulling Dawn Approach of the Epsom Derby. Magician was impressive at the Curragh but if they really thought he was a real superstar you would've thought he would've been targeted at the Newmarket guineas?. If the horse never ran at Epsom surely DA would now be odds on for this race at the moment 6/4 looks huge. |
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He ran Banimpire nearly every second week yet she kept her form.
I backed Alexander Goldrun in a Galway Nursery,her stall opened late and she managed to get beat. He is a phenomenal trainer but he normally has his races plotted out but in this case he has changed his mind. |
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It's the same sort of cliched guesswork that suggested he wouldn't train on from 2 to 3 because he appeared early as a 2 year old. And we know where that got you.
It might be an interesting talking point but it's not a basis for risking your hard earned money. |
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Doubt you ever risked anything in your life,biggest risk you ever took was asking Pater to increase your pocket money.
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Here we go, another slanging match begins!
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Tend to agree with Ozy in that its not a race to take the risk of whether he will flop on the basis of the non run in the derby, Also agree with Premier that he has beaten them all easily over his optimum and better opportunities at that price,surely the place lay(probably 1/3,2/5 ish) would be a better/cheaper alternative if your belief would be that strong,not for me as whether he is trained for the race isn,t a strong enough reason(the temperment part might be fair enough,but maybe it was the occasion) when so many other factors are positive in regard trip, ground, and opposition.
A leave alone for me too. |
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Jim did this a few years ago with Lush Lashes who dropped back from the Oaks to win the Coronation.
Think the last horse to run in the Derby and come out and win the St James Palace Stakes was Marju in 1991, but not many top class horses have tried. |
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I have seen the horse in the flesh three times and whilst he is a reasonable walker he has to me a horrible action,has anyone else noticed this.
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I watched this year's Derby with a sense of astonishment as to how badly behaved Dawn Approach was once he left the gate. He'd have won no race of any description that day.
I think they may have ruined the horse and it may have been a spectacular gamble that has failed completely. I suspected in the immediate aftermath he would never race again. This is yet another "annus horribilis" for Godolphin and the very beast who threatened to revive their fortunes may ultimately contribute to its demise. I am asounded they are running him so soon after Epsom and its in direct comparison to Ballydoyle deciding against running Magician in the Derby. Little wonder that Godolphin have such bad fortune with management decisions like this. |
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Fair move for him this morning from 2.70+ to last price 2.44.
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They must have read this bloody thread,he's against it pile on.
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In all fairness,Dawn Approach did not have a hard race at all at Epsom. What happened contributed to him running at a lower tempo then he had run at in the 2000gns. Also worth noting he was virtually pulled up in the home straight, so this was nothing more than a blowout for him, and should not contribute in any way to him getting turned over in Ascot's mile. If you are laying him,(again),you are just hoping that what you saw in his attitude at Epsom,(being headstrong was his big issue),comes to the fore again. Probably unlikely, with a proper gallop, so I would expect him to re-establish his reputation as the seasons top miler. Also Silvergee is spot on in his post, and remember JB has this blood analysis lab in Coolcullen, so if they run him he is spot on, and likely to run up to his best. Having skipped him in the Derby,if he turns up I'm back in again. Perhaps we should remember horses are born to run, something they enjoy doing, just like our Greyhounds, born to run, love the chase, (most of them), and when fit stay fit. Just as DA should.....................
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magician very impressive in irish guineas, torando lost a shoe in english guineas, you can forgive the horse for that run.
dawn approach has only raced twice this season, but hasnt been specially prepared for this race, and that makes this race much tougher, horse will either be declared best miler or a new champion will crowned. should be an exciting race, one to look forward to. im not sure how good magician is, and torando did not perform to its right level in the guineas, at the moment would give dawn approach one last chance, whatever horse turns up in the best condition for that race will win, which horse that is, not completely sure.find much better opportunitys then that race next week, race to enjoy and not to lose any money on. gl all |
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"I'm a great believer in his training methods rather than the molly coddled cotton wool approach that Dermot Weld applies to his better horses."
spot on silvergeaser |
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hats off to feral tipp man-his threads are usually good for debate.
Ascot is best racing possibly in the world and SJPS will be fascinating. Form of Newmarket Guineas has been very average/bad since so taking a short price about DA would be nuts imo. Tommy Stack has a very interesting runner at Ayr this weekend in Nero Emperor. Horse looked absolute class when winning his maiden in 2011 and has had his problems since. Got some eye-catching entries over the course of last few weeks and Sprint Cup is where they have pitched their tent. |
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Fascinating race but imo impossible to form a confident opinion.
Before Dawn Approach entered the race,tactics and pace were going to be interesting and now even more so. My original plan was to trade Toronado in running,guaranteed to trade shorter with magician making it from the front. A race with so many questions now and impossible to form a confident opinion?? Will Magician still set a strong pace?? How strong/weak is the irish guineas form?? If the real Dawn Approach turns up tho,there will only be one winner. |
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I presume Leitir Mor will set the pace for Dawn Approach
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and magician....
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Seems to be just a very slight doubt with Magican according to Anaglogs Daughter on the main forum,looks likely he will run but i,d be slow to lay DA until he lines up.
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pa, I'd be even slower to lay Dawn Approach even if Magician turns up. Most likely a nice horse this Magician but probably won a poor classic. Hughsie said his fellow didn't want to get out of 3rd gear up the Curragh that day. Jim Bolger was on RTE radio today with Des Cahill, and thought Toronado only danger, the others he said are much the same. Can only see one winner, and its gotta be DA..............and Jim is pretty smug about DA....... again just like before Newmarket.
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don't think marju won the st james palace,can't be sure what race he won at ascot but I remember backing him will check if i can
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It won it in 91'
It won The Craven the same year.. |
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apologies it was indeed the st james palace stakes that marju won beating second set,a long time ago,those were the days
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Jay only put that post up as it was kind of breaking news that Magician could be out,fwiw had already backed DA.
Bookies still going 2/1 on Magician after cutting the shoite out of the rest of them and available at 7/2 on exch and was considerably higher. Nice toys. |
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Magician is the best miler in Ireland and England
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Looks like Coolmore were taken aback by Dawn Approaches participation so are getting their excuses in early thats if he even turns up at all?, or maybe they think the horse is so special they put out false rumours hoping for a big drift before piling the cash on the day of the race?, either ways if the Dawn Approach of the 2000 guineas turns up Magician won't see which way he went.
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Well said silver,.......again........
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@5/4 its a no bet for me after the derby..i think the horse is a monster but there are to many questions marks at that price for me to chance him..if he was 9/4 which I think he should be..then I,d play..
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The Irish Guineas was a better race than the English version. Magician a better horse than Dawn Approach. it's really not that complicated
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I need bigger to bet it and i'm considering a lay and i'm seriously thinking about making this my bismarck of the meeting for me, i'll decide later although we could see the horse pushed so far out it becomes value as a lot seem against it.
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I'm coming around to the idea that Mars might beat them all, they certainly consider him to be as good as Magician, what price they are telling the truth? I'll take the 12's. He certainly has the best jockey on him in Moore
I was very impressed by War Command on debut at Leopradstown, he is third string I imagine, but every quote they give us now before big races is the lads telling us they are bringing the horses 'that deserve to be there.' Hopefully they go quick enough that the drop back to 6f won't matter. Also please God Seamie 'I ride for AOB not the punter' doesn't baby him too much. Also had an interest on Pearl Secret who I think can win a Group 1 at some stage this year, hopefully it is now. Spencer chooses him readily over Spirit Quartz apparently. Although I do suspect they might be hyping him big to make up for his lack of pedigree with his second career in mind. Worked the house down last week according to the sporting life and went off short in the Nunthorpe last year anyway. In the finale, My Catch was very weak in the betting when pitched into a conditions race on debut, beaten a neck and splitting two winners, he did everything bar win that and looks to be well drawn. (They are saying high although the yank speedball is in 3, we will see.) Tomorrow might be the day those Pearl bloodstock fellas announce themselves in England maybe? |
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if D.A. HAD NOT RUN IN THE DERBY WHAT PRICE WOULD HE BE FOR THIS RACE? MAYBE 1/2 ..ITS UP TO YOU.
 TONY |
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most likely winner for me and I don't think Bolger would run him unless he thought he was right. The most worrying aspect for me would be racing around the bend at Ascot. The horse doesn't always travel great and that is a real problem around a turn. Even though he was electric at Newmarket.
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he still pulled very hard early on..but his class got him there in the end.
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hopefully we saved you a few shillings, Borneo.
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BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM torando run the horse very close. i gave dawn approach a second chance
 class act at 8f champion horse, profile tells you that, shame they ruined a perfect record in the derby. |
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I shouldn't be let out still going to the flics tonight,Bonnie and Clyde with Faye Dunaway is the appropriate film.
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