Irish Sports
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 49 comments are related to the topic:
Western Force vs Lions - big middle on hcps
Western Force vs Lions - big middle on hcps
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 49
|
By:
Okay Kingrat i am following you but can you please expand a little.
|
|
By:
i put up a post timed at 21.18 tonight. What part of it would you disagree with.
|
|
By:
 but yre laying there.when yre laying an 8% edge on even money shots, will get a better return than 8% edge on 2-1 shots. |
|
By:
how am i laying?
|
|
By:
we could be here all night but an interesting topic.it gets to the hearth of how to bet correctly.laters!good night to ya.
|
|
By:
In my post i could have worded things in a different way. Same difference. I am backing an even money shot to win and then backing it not to win at 11/8. I am not laying it at 8/11. I am BACKING it at 11/8 to win providing a certain outcome happens which in this case just happens to be to lose but in another example it could be to win.. I am a backer in both instances. Just because your doing a bet on something not to happen does not mean your a layer. Imagine its a two horse race. I am backing one horse at evens and the other at 11/8.
Often bookmakers have a two outcome market on something to happen or not to happen. If i back something not to happen i am still a backer. I am not a layer. |
|
By:
10/1 odds = 9.09% chance Edge = 4.33%
20/1 odds = 4.76% chance EVS odds = 50.00% chance Edge = 7.85% 8/11 odds = 57.85% chance |
|
By:
Having read the rest of the thread ,one of ye is using expected value and the other is using the difference in probability.
Using your example DB (.0909 * 20) - (.9091 * 1) = .9089(you're forgetting to include your stake in 9 winning bets) |
|
By:
Yes, it was clear the main difference between our betting strategies was that DB'S was based on expected value and mine was based on guaranteed profit. Over 100 bets DB'S expected value would average out. The problem he would have would be that he would have to have a staking plan whereas i would not.
Lets say we would started with a bankroll of £100. Once any of us goes into a negative balance we can not play any more. Over 100 days we can do 1 bet a day at our different odds already mentioned. We can chose our own stakes which may be different. DB cant really start off putting his whole bank on at expected value in his first bet as 90% of times he is broke. My betting strategy ( assuming a mythical 100% betting market ) is to use 100% of my bankroll for every bet and pick up the 8% guaranteed profit every time. My bankroll is also being increased by compound factors so i can stake more every bet at the same rate of return. My exact profit after 100 bets can be easily worked out. My question to DB is to see how much he can turn his £100 original stake into using any staking plan he choses. |
|
By:
Catch up this debate at another time because as mrs marx said to karl there is a time to stop talking about money and actually start making some of it.
|