Setanta cup match

I never said Real Madrid are value, however i believe they would be at EVS the price you said you think they should be. Anyway i'm nowhere near a good enough judge at football and could easily be wrong.

No you don't Real are value end of, read my champions league thread Wildman. United may win the match but they ain't value and the money has come for Real all day. the game is -1 line now on the AHC, it started off as a -0.75, i predict the big boys will come for real tomorrow morning as well.

I could easily be wrong also but even at evens your pick its still just a matter of opinion.

I also think Man United are value in the outright market but how can that be proven either way.

so what did the guy who lost the bet buy with his value premier , ...value is something to get when having a bet , that is simple , but no matter how many horses you back at 10/1 who finish uP at 2/1 and DON'T WIN ..thats value in NAME ONLY... AS ELVISSSS SAYS  ..IF I BACK A WINNER @ 4/1 AND IT WINS AT 5/1 HAVE I GOT VALUE ...YES I HAVE  ITS WON ...IF I BACK A HORSE @ 5/1 AND IT ENDS UP 4/1 ...HAVE I GOT VALUE ..NOT IF IT LOSES I HAVEN'T ..I HAVE THE THEORY OF VALUE NOTING ELSE ....

Rocketfingers you are giving your opinion which is usually wrong but you can't just declare "Real are value end of " just like I can't  say the same about United.

If you back a horse that had a better than 20% chance of winning @ 4/1 you have got value whether it wins or not

If you back a horse that had a better chance than 16.67% of winning @ 5/1 you have got value whether it wins or not

[of course to determine the above you have to be a good judge and be able to do a good tissue]


Nobody betting something at 2/5 that is a 50-50 shot is getting value if it wins. Basically what you're doing is saying that what you backed had a 71.43% chance of winning when in fact it only had a 50% chance of winning thus you took way under the odds which equals bad value.

Everybody betting something at 5/2 that is a 50-50 shot is getting value even if it loses. Basically the bookmakers are saying it has a 28.57% chance of winning yet you know it has a 50% chance of winning so you're getting value.

[the dice is the easy example for above]

no what i'm saying is this ....first you must back winners ....then and only then does value become value ......otherwise even bad value can be VALUE .....THE THEORY OF VALUE HAS SOMEHOW BECOME AN ISSUE ...BUT ITS ONLY THAT A THEORY ....THE POINT BEEN VALUE IS ONLY VALUE IN BETTING TERMS WHEN IT TURNS TO CASH......very few on here bet to value day after day , if we did we'd all be winners , thats why betfair says only  5% on here are winners ....so why ain't we all millionaires ....because 95% dont bet to value ..or so the theory goes...

wr,

When tipsters are picking a selection before an event they usually concentrate on what they consider to be a value price plus of course a realistic chance of winning. Their pick can be a winning value selection or a losing value selection - up to each person what they consider value to be though

From atr site - u can ask HT to clarify for u tomorrow

If you have a question you would like to ask Hugh about this column or any racing issue for the Form Factor programme on Wednesdays, just email formfactor@attheraces.com. Thanks to those who have already submitted questions. Please note that because of the high number of emails received Hugh is unable to provide personal replies.

        ------------------------------------------------------------------------


Re Madrid/Utd, Madrid are poor in their league this season but league form can often go out the window in cup games. If I had to have a bet I'd go for Madrid - Utd have been poor in Europe last few seasons - couldn't beat Basle or Benfica in group games last season and got the runaround and lost v Ath Bilbao twice in the Europa.

Will back Celtic tonight but not saying they're value and won't after the match if they win - was at the game when they beat Juve 4 - 3 8 or 9 yrs ago -

elvissss , i fully agree , everyone one has an opinion of whats value .but thats all it is ,  value is value  when it lands in your account as cash ....otherwise its only your opinion that its value ...you cant buy anything with an opinion , you can with cash ...

I notice Wildman has allowed one of his most vunerable followers, Wonky, to embarrass himself without riding to his protection, interesting. Wonky the man who does not understand value. 2/5 heads is good value on a 50/50 coin toss because it won, you can't make it up about this guy.

wr

I backed the winner of the betfair hurdle ante at 4s - returned at 5s.

It wasn't a value bet imo even tho it won.

PS : Well done if ur fishing.

Off to watch Celts.

Rocketfingers as you think value is something you decree tis you that doesn't get it,this is about opinions and as such unquantifiable.

not fishing , would you , like tolmi , preferred it to have lost.....because you didn't get the so called value ,  now there's a thought to frighten any punter ....enjoy the game.....

coco run along , enough rubbish from you now , go do your homework son , oh i forgot its midterm....

Quiet Wildman or should i say Wildplagarist?

I presume you mean quite and the other word is plagiarist.
Although you are well known for plagiarising stuff (you managed to plagiarise some of mine) it doesn't follow that others will do the same,however if you feel I have plagiarised something put up the piece you think I copied and let others decide.

Obviously you know well why i can't put this up, you know this and you know what i'm talking about as well. No no this is one i'll hide this one away for a rainy day but i can imagine there would be Irish racing journo not too happy if he saw that.

Your bluff got called again and true to form you ran away,
Previously you said the same about a post I made about Arkle saying you had read it in some weekend paper until it was pointed out to you that my post was over a year old.
You are not even good at these little white lies as my post on the Grand National was made shortly after the weights were out and my views are nearly the same as the ones I expressed just after last years National.

You obviously think highly of my contributions but tis a pity you fail to follow them and patently can't grasp the basic points.

How would someone who never bets have any idea what value is??

Just to clarify a few points on my posts on this thread.

Wildman

I was careful to mention in my post about betfair SP being used as an indicator over a period of time.Of course any individual betfair SP can be skewed by a market overeaction to a big backer/layer but I was referring to betfair SP in the general sense.It is proven over a period of time than a betfair SP of 2 wins roughly 50% of the time...a betfair SP of 11 wins 10% of the time.

Workrider

There are many types of punter and not everyone  has long term profit as a goal.My post of 16.12 was referring to my earlier post of 15.43 and is only valid where the punter has long term profit as a goal.Throughout this thread you have failed to grasp the concept of value.It can only be gauged in the long term with a sufficiently large body of evidence to back it up.My example of 8/1 loser that SP's at 4/1 versus a 4/1 winner that Sp's at 8/1 was used to highlight the following point..if you keep backed the former you will achieve long term profit whereas if you keep backing the latter you will be a long term loser.
I was given a piece of advice as a chasing punter in my youth...Always remember its a marathon not a sprint!Individual results do not matter as long as you get value over a period of time.It is the single most important thing for a long term profit seeker punter closely followed by discipline/ability to cope with adversity.

i take on board your points tolmi ,  i  fully agree that its essential to look for value in betting , the simple point that people seem to be missing , is, value is not value , no matter how its dressed it up , if in the end there is NO RETURN , it remains A THEORY ....if i have a bet and it wins i have got VALUE AND A RETURN ON MY MONEY..if i backed a horse at 10/1 and its returned @ 5/1 and it loses , i have got VALUE IN THEORY ....

.....how can anybody taking 2-5 on the toss of a coin be getting value even if it wins..that is the most idiotic thing i have ever read on here..surely workrider is fishing and caught an awful lot of people in his net as nobody could be that silly.....

thE point is simply this shaneboy ...value is a theory in betting ....its simply a thought , YOU THINK YOU ARE GETTING VALUE ....but if there is no return , HOW CAN IT BE VALUE ....

.....workrider in the 16:53 post by somebody they explained about a toss of a coin and gave odds..then in your 17:01 post you said the person that took 2-5 on the toss of a coin got value because they won and the person who took 5-2 did not get value because they lost..that is absolutely ridicolous.....i thought you knew what you where talking about but if you do not understand that it really is amazing.....and stop shouting constantly..you cannot win by just shouting over everybody.....

Finally the meeting of the forum's great minds ^

I think its you that is missing the point Workrider.Value has to be assessed pre race when you are striking the bet.You are using the benefit of hindsight to assess it.

wr knows it all

you have hit the head on the nail tolmi , value has to be assessed BEFORE STRIKING THE BET ...at THAT POINT , it APPEARS TO BE VALUE....but its only relative if it WINS....

Oh sweet mother of mercy Einstein is back

indeed rock!words of wisdom from the wr again,a pro punter!

I won't try to make my point any more other than to say that virtually all LONG TERM winning punters can appreciate the difference between value bets and winning bets.Try to get your head around betfair SP being a long term indicator of value and it will be of benefit to your punting.

i understand the point of value in betting , the point i'll continue to make is simply this , if the horse dont win its NO VALUE ....only theory ....

King just when you think he has it you see "the point i'll continue to make" , poor auld Tolmi trying to explain it to him, can you imagine the torture he put his teachers through at school?

I'll ask you a simple question so Workrider are you a long term winning or losing punter?

have a heart rock...the poor old divil is losing his marbles!....he is lost without his leader to do his thinking for him

i understand exactly what is MENT BY VALUE ....the point about value is , its about winning for it to MEAN ANYTHING ....OTHERWISE ITS JUST THEORY .....of course we all look to get value , we ALL want 10/1 about a 5/1 shot ....but if those 10/1 SHOTS INTO 5/1 KEEP LOSING , it just means we got the mythical value .....which in the end brings NOTHING OF VALUE .....punters THINK they are getting VALUE ....AND IN THEORY THEY ARE ..but if the horse don't win , its only THEORY YOU HAVE GOT ....IF I BACK A HORSE THAT WINS @ 5/1 AND I'VE BACKED IT AT 10/1 ..OF COURSE THAT'S VALUE ....IF I KEEP ON BACKING SO CALLED VALUE ... THEORETICALLY I'M SUPPOSED TO WIN....now for the question , how many on here continuously back 10/1 shots that win @5/1...very few i say ...unless of course you're rocketfingers ..that guy NEVER BACKS A LOSER....

workrider

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different forum since i done this....i shud done it months ago

I BACKED ROLLY BABY THERE @ 4/1 FOR £50 PRE RACE  ....IT WENT 7 S IN RUNNING ..DID I GET VALUE  ON MY BET ....?...OR DID THOSE WHO BACKED IT AT 4S DOWN TO 000.1 GET THE VALUE....?..

This is great, can i throw in another example for you to use, Workrider, heads is an 10/1 shot, but tails keeps winning on th flip, now you could use that example too show how you're right and everybody else is wrong

Well Rocket certainly didn't,As you have to bet to understand the concept of value.

richters • February 13, 2013 2:44 PM GMT
workrider

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different forum since i done this....i shud done it months ago

I honestly don't think we'll ever see such stupidity on a thread on the whole of this forum again but this above post by richters has brought to a new low. richters if you had me blocked i would not be able to the bit in bold

workrider , i have been accused of aftertiming on here for stating my position during the event a few times,  but ffs you take the fkn buscuit!!!!

COCO WOULD YOU CARE TO ANSWER MY QUESTION BELOW , AS YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF A EXPERT ON VALUE....I AWAIT WITH BAITED BREATH YOUR ANSWER....

you're are very welcome to your opinion toby....no problem mate....

Still shouting wr? More like screaming at this stage

Why are u asking did u get value on that particular bet? If u don't know yourself then no one here can help u - it's up to every individual to determine what they see as value is it not?

Simpler to call it a winning bet after the event

WD on ur winnings btw

I asked a very simple question which despite a lenghty reply you did not answer.I'm sure you know the answer to it yourself and I would suspect you are not a long term winning punter.Examples like backing Rolly Baby might keep you happy until your next bet but at the end of the day your betting strategy is doomed to failure.I have made a genuine and lenghty attempt in this thread to help your long term profitability as I suspect you are a genuine enthusiast and unlike many other threads I don't involve myself in any musd slinging or name calling.Instead I will merely wish you the best with your future punting.

exactly elvissss , its a wining bet , therefore a value bet , ...but were was the value , i know were the value IS ...pre race I THOUGHT i knew ...post race..I GOT THE VALUE....

Just answer Tolmi's question Wonky, he's asked you how many times now? Rolly Baby SP 5/2 you allegedly had a bet at 4/1, what do you think, what a fool? All that is, hey everybody i'm not a complete moron i'm quite shrewd, sorry we don't believe you Wonks.

WR
That's like saying you went shopping at the sales when the sales were well over and thinking you got value when you paid full whack for the goods. You got the goods yes but you got no value.

sorry tolmi , i ment to answer your question earlier , i got caught up in the moment , in answer to your question i'd have to say long term i'm a losing punter ...in recent years this has improved tremendously i'm glad to say ....i'm still behind overall though ....in 1999 , i had a horrendous year , in fact i'd say the worst year ever punting , since that time i have refined my betting , i fall down sometimes and lose the run of myself like most punters ....

no elvissss , i got the goods AND GOT TO BRING THEM HOME.....so did the guy who backed rolly at 6/4 not get value ..?

whos this WE coco ....you and your other imaginary friends ....

Wonky you really are dumb, do you not understand what we are saying to you. The guy that bet in-running is betting under different circumstances than what was avilable pre-race and ones that are forever changing, part of the event had occurred by the time an in-running punter strikes, so a shorter price may still be value as the next 2 in the market may have fallen and he's still traveling well etc etc, i did not see the race. I hope this helps you, although i get the feeling you're beyond help saddo.

value is value in running or pre race you clown .....how many 000.1 shots get beat ..even there you can get VALUE ....

GET A ROOM boys !

YOu asked was it value or not? No again you're wrong but you fail to understand. Again have a think about the flip of a coin, do you still stand by after all we have told you, remember wonky this is now the 4th page, that the side that you call at 2/5 is value just because it wins?

a flip of a coin is theory nothing more ..you seem to fail to grasp that ..i'll give you a little example , lets say we have 500e each and decide to toss for a 100 a go ...you follow so far coco....i call heads and it comes up 5 times , i take your money ...the theory says tails should have come up twice , it didn't ...result i got the money ..you got the value ..........

workrider
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as easy as that workrider mate.....

richters ,i enjoy fooling with the clown , how else would i get a laugh every day....

Wonky just you love making a fool of yourself that's not a taking a long term view though, that's a short term view and a small value of having just 5 bets, it's way to samll a sample. This is going to sound rude but seriously are you that thick? Btw only a lunatic would be betting 20% of his bank per bet but that's another issue and one i cerainly won't be covering that with you my friend and i doubt too many will either.

ffs man get a life ....i SAID A LITTLE EXAMPLE ...READ THE POST....lets try again shall we ...you ONLY HAVE 500E no more no less ...so you've lost it , weres your value ....not everyone has an everlasting bank , like yourself.........you're so fooking stupid you even go on about 20% of your bank ....it was only an IMAGINARY ONE FFS...

.....workrider i like you but you are seriously making a show of yourself here.....if you take 2-5 on a toss of a coin you are a moron..win or lose you are a moron.....

shane boy the true odds are 4/5  each....premier was only giving an example not a fact hope that helps....

shane boy the true odds are 4/5  each....premier was only giving an example not a fact hope that helps....

Workrider now appears to be pretending to be joking all along Wonks do yourself a favour and stop posting on this thread.

i 'm not joking you clown ..trying to show fools like you that ,  value is only theory , not fact....stick to your imaginary bets ...i'm sure you gt LOTS OF VALUE ON THEM....

....you don't get it at all..heads is evens and tails is evens in a toss of a coin..not 4-5.....


....well done with your horse.....

NOT IF YOUR TOSSING THE COIN IT AIN'T SHANEBOY ........ASK ANY BOOKIE TO GIVE YOU EVENS ..THEY'D LAUGH YOU OUT OF THEIR OFFICE....

The true odds are EVS workrider.

Heads and Tails both have the same chance of coming up giving them a 50% chance which equals EVS

Therefore anything above EVS is value and anything below EVS is not value

If a bookmaker did offer 4/5 heads and 4/5 tails betting to 111% you don't bet as both prices are bad value

premier ,    so what price to you think ted would offer , of course he take his cut.....well wouldn't he....

to much tossing on here

Of course he is going to be shorter, he has to make money.


However to find the true price you price it up to 100%. Both scenarios have the same chance of coming up so it's 50-50, both have 50% chance. 50% equals EVS

i rang you a minute ago....i fully understand the procedure....

sorry my phone must be in the other room, i'll ring ya back now in a minute

@Workrider, I rarely post on here but I have being lurking for a long long time and I enjoy your posts but you are utterly and profoundly wrong on this issue, your take on this issue is a version of the gamblers fallacy, the prime moving principle of the success of the recreational betting industry. Probability is one of the least intuitive of mathematical sciences, I have often felt that I had a appreciation of its fundamentals, only for one false step in its logic to leave me back in a morass of ignorance. I recommend you read the Drunkards Walk by Leonard Mlodinow, and if you understand the problem of the goats and the Ferrari then you have made a start.

I know I have the benefit of hindsight, but to me Pats were not obvious value at 4/6, all things being equal I would have laid Pats at 4/7, on the night and looked to back them at 10/11, it was Pats first competitive game of the year and fitness and the lessons of the year told as 3 of the 4 Irish league teams came away with good to fair results against LOI teams who are still feeling their way.

thanks for your interest in this rock piper , the law of large numbers is out of my league , i am purely a betting man who prefers pitting my wits against the old enemy on a one to one basis , this lln would take up to much time , and in the end if i'm truthful i wouldn't fully understand it...you seem to be under the impression that i said st pats were a value bet @ 4/7...it was another formite who expressed that opinion...thanks again ...

Wonky, your failure to grasp what the word "value" means in betting parlance leads me to believe you plainly should not be betting. You cannot grasp the basis concept of value and i doubt you would know what true value was in any betting situation. You can't learn how to spot value. It's instinct. As for your sidekick Stubbyfingers, well he doesn't bet making any view it has, irrelevant.

listen recession , sorry thicko , i understand value perfectly , how i go about using it is the secret ...what is irrelevant here is your opinion thicko....

You have the "opinion" of a child so jog on fool. You aren't intelligent enough to spot value in ANY situation.

ok thicko  , lets try something , do you  ever go to shelbourne park , i ask this merely to show you what value is....?

@Workrider, I know it wasn't you, in the case Rocketfingers understood value he just didnt know what it looked like, I am not knocking him at least he has an opinion and is brave enough to express it. Its very hard to put an objective value on subjective matter and your approach is prolly as good as any.

You are going to try and show me what value is??? You've one helluva neck but i'll play along with ya... Of course i go to Shelbourne Park. Proceed with your question.....

as you can see rock piper , slickster has a very high opinion of me....i enjoy your piece on the next pope , very interesting points....

ok we'll say theirs five books ....   p henn has the fav they bet 6/4 6/4 6/4 2/1 6/4.....weres the value....you KNOW what bookies are there , if as you say you go....so tell were the value is...

A ridiculous example. You expect me to place a bet not knowing who is running? Wise up Wonks. There is NO value at dog tracks. Betting to odds of 150% odd is NOT value. Not even if you are certain you're on the winneer. No bet.

i cant wait all night , you go to shelbourne dont you ....tell me the answer its obvious...

ffs , lets make it simple i'll give you the money to bet with ...its only a question , calm down...so use my money and have your value bet on that race....you been a punter and all , i never heard a punter turn down a free bet ....

If you're asking me what's the difference between 6-4 and 2-1 you're dealing with the wrong person. That's like asking me what is 2+2 ffs....Have you got something more difficult for me?

Holy god Thickster , let me give you a clue who is running, 6 doggies in 6 traps numbered 1 thru to 6 it's not that hard, so pick a dog thicko

thats not the question ..just tell me what the value is in your opinion....simple...remember though , you are in shelbourne , so go ahead , tell me the value bet mr sharp mind.....

You're so clueless in all walks of life stubby. Best to not get involved in something like this. You'll only tie yourself up in knots.

Value? In my opinion Wonky there is no value at dog tracks. I don't bet just for the sake of it. This is what we're trying to get through to you. If you're saying 4 bookies are 6-4 and 1 is 2-1, obviously all punters who want a bet will take the 2's. Regardless of any "inside info" he may have or not have. I will bet if i think the odds are wrong. Ie, in MY favour...

well mr sharpe mind....don't keep us up all night ..you been a regular punter should have got that simple question right off....

you nearly got it ....the bookie had the inside info.... hence the 2/1 ....so you see ...value is not always what it seems ...here ends the lesson....see you soon in shelbourne no doubt....night night..........

Wonky it's up to each individual how they spot and use value. I don't bet when the percentages are ludicrously too high. "Bookies" need to cotton on quick.

spotting value is one thing ..GETTING VALUE IS THE SECRET....dont forget that thicko....maybe the recession has them pricing up like that....what you think.....

Rock Piper,

I have never read that book but read a synopsis of it last night.Sounds fascinating.I particularly like the concept of the person who pats himself on the back when he backs a winner and blames everyone bar himself when he backs a loser.I always try to think that long term good and bad luck even out.