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keen leader
10 Jan 13 18:13
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 634 | Blogger: keen leader's blog
into the betting jungle of 2013 we step. as always as punters our single biggest weapon is that we need only play where the odds are in our favour.
not for me, bullsh1t such as worrying about mcmanus plot horses etc. do your homework and you will get rewarded most of the time.

two bets must be done now, you will have to wait 6 weeks in one case, 5 months in the other, to get a return, the odds are now on our side.



(prices mentioned below are those offered as i type by the firm in tallaght whose share price was aided by An Post recently)

bet 1

NPower league 1: outright:  Bournemouth 11/2, 1/4 123...a decent wedge each way.

best team in division, top manager, have the big momentum.....tranmere and doncaster currently atop about to sink....dangers are sheffield united and brentford.
bournemouth have a tough game this saturday, they can win that and then have 3 easy games for the rest of the month...the rest at the top have a hard schedule this month.....the fa cup draw with wigan and the ensueing replay is an unwelcome distraction.....i am certain, by feb 1st, bournemouth will be within 4 points of the top and with the best squad in the division(and not depending on loanees like the other leaders), they can go on and win the division.


bet 2
all ireland intermediate club football championship:
all in on finuge at 2/1.

the north kerrymen won the munster title without their two inter county stars, eamonn fitzmaurice and paul galvin.

that pair will be back for a semi final they will win against monasterevin.....in the final they will play the winners of charlestown or cookstown.........at croke park i would make finuge 4/7 to win either match up.

2/1 is an outstanding price, as it covers problematic draws.

in my book, bournemouth are 5/2 shots and finuge 1/2 shots.

enjoy the ride!.
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Report frankalsoran60 April 8, 2013 6:44 PM BST
SEEMS we were forgetting about Bournemouth after the bad march run,but back to back wins sees them in with a real chance[around 7/2 now]
Report kavvie April 8, 2013 6:59 PM BST
5 straight losses followed by 6 wins!
Report frankalsoran60 April 8, 2013 7:06 PM BST
Time to dig the laddies docket out of my wallet[all is not lost after all]
Report kavvie April 8, 2013 7:09 PM BST
they will have to win all their matches tho.a few games on this week ,we could do with doncaster,swindon,sheff utd and brentford losing or at least only drawing..
Report frankalsoran60 April 8, 2013 7:18 PM BST
we will need a few favours Kavvie especially were Doncaster are concernedHappy. off out to watch man u v man city game.
Report kavvie April 8, 2013 7:24 PM BST
laying utd.id say a draw or city win
Report richters April 8, 2013 7:47 PM BST
BTTS kavvie....will oblige b4 hy imo
Report Colonel Sanders April 8, 2013 10:03 PM BST
Doncaster as home to lowly Carlisle tomorrow, surely a win will almost seal it

I'm on each way and have got rid of the win stake
Report Cupwinkcook April 8, 2013 10:54 PM BST
Crewe are the key, seem to be playing everyone in the top 6 bar Bournemouth

won a cup yesterday so they are useful but could be pickled in gargle and hungover for the rest of the season.

It'll be interesting no matter what.
Report db1974 April 8, 2013 11:13 PM BST
It's hard to see anyone other than Doncaster winning it now. 4 games left, the next 3 of which are against teams in mid-table with nothing left to play for realistically. Sheffield United are a danger with 5 of their 6 remaining fixtures a home. Brentford are the only other danger to the place part of the bet IMO (I'm optimistically writing off Yeovil & Swindon!).

It's going down to the last week anyway
Report limestone lad April 9, 2013 8:30 PM BST
Chink of light doncaster one down at home
Report Colonel Sanders April 9, 2013 9:38 PM BST
Carlisle 2-0 up, must be in the dying embers of that game

Typical I laid off Cry
Report Colonel Sanders April 9, 2013 9:39 PM BST
Swindon and Sheff Utd both look like they've lost also
Report db1974 April 9, 2013 9:42 PM BST
Some cracking results tonight!
Report kavvie April 9, 2013 9:53 PM BST
lets hope the cherries keep their side of the bargain.its falling into place for them.(and us!!)
Report Cupwinkcook April 9, 2013 10:14 PM BST
couldn't have written the results out better

even goal difference
Report frankalsoran60 April 9, 2013 10:45 PM BST
Wink best price now 13/8 with stan james
Report padlock April 10, 2013 9:58 AM BST
nice result,come on bournemouth
Report kavvie April 13, 2013 6:01 PM BST
down to the wire...
Report db1974 April 13, 2013 11:09 PM BST
Yeah feckin Doncaster and Brentford both came from behind to win today. They actually play each other on the last day of the season in Brentford so if Bournemouth can win their last 2 a draw in that match could be enough for the league.

Swindon's defeat means they can't catch Bournemouth now

Sheffield Utd play at home to Brentford on Tuesday night where a draw would be a good result while Yeovil are away to Oldham on Tuesday as well, with Oldham having a good win today hopefully they can do us a favour there
Report Cupwinkcook April 14, 2013 12:23 AM BST
Bournemouth should win their next game, last one will be tougher.

Goal difference edged better today, but still not conclusive.

Crewe look jaded now and will probably be beaten in their remaining matches by hungrier teams.

It's all about the 6 pointers, draws are what we want.
Report kavvie April 14, 2013 10:30 AM BST
bournmouths last game is against tranmere who currently have a slim chance of making the play offs.lets hope by the time of the game they have nothing to play for.the fact that 2 of the games remaining are sheff utd v brent and brent v donny is a big advantage to our chances of collecting..
Report frankalsoran60 April 14, 2013 12:14 PM BST
THEY played like ragball rovers for most of March ..but thankfully more like Melchester Rovers since then..interesting games ahead.
Report frankalsoran60 April 16, 2013 6:38 PM BST
a DRAW in the sheff utd v brent would be nice tonight.Tongue Out
Report ballaman68 April 16, 2013 9:47 PM BST
Wish granted :-)
Report Ozymandius April 16, 2013 9:49 PM BST
sweet...has been a fun journey this one.
Report kavvie April 16, 2013 9:53 PM BST
been great crack...and a good chance of it finishing succesfully..if brent and donc draw and cherries win both games they win it..i backed them here for small money after they lost the 5 in a row at 48..got out for a free bet on the win part..so heres hoping
Report frankalsoran60 April 16, 2013 10:18 PM BST
i backed them at 6/1 with laddies ,they went as low as 2.3here and then out as high as 40/1 plus..roller coaster come to mind..even K.L most be scratching his Testimonials on this one.Grin
Report Colonel Sanders April 16, 2013 10:23 PM BST
I laid the win part back at 4.9 Cry
Report dj876 April 18, 2013 8:56 AM BST
This thread is a perfect illustration for one of the major reasons of the housing bubble in Ireland.
Report kavvie April 18, 2013 10:24 AM BST
explain your wisdom dj..
Report frankalsoran60 April 18, 2013 10:26 AM BST
please DONT.
Report kavvie April 18, 2013 10:39 AM BST
guy puts up a 6/1 ew shot.explains the reasoning.ie no loan players,big squad,good strikers, good manager, easy run in.2 games left and price has gone to 11/10 to win out.and it reminds one of our wise posters of the housing bubble?!!?..maybe it reminds you also of the cliffs of moher?or the galway races?or red wine?!!?..maybe maybe...
Report frankalsoran60 April 18, 2013 10:41 AM BST
Happy
Report Rocketfingers April 18, 2013 10:42 AM BST
Laugh
Report dj876 April 18, 2013 10:51 AM BST
Or maybe that It's a clear example of the "Lemming effect".People are who incapable of original thought and hence just follow.

I have the utmost respect for KL,and have no doubt that he is a very successful racing punter due to his shrewdness and the amount of time/effort that he puts into it(aided by the fact that he works in the industry).However it's next to impossible to be a professional racing punter combined with a professional football punter due to time constraints.

I haven't formed this opinion from a sample size of one thread(wouldn't be very conclusive)but hey don't ever question the herd mentality.
Report kavvie April 18, 2013 10:56 AM BST
are you quesioning the logic of the reason he put it up?..the herd mentality is all following one with no apparent logical reason to do it.in this case theres was /is a reason.if i came on here and tipped say galway to win the all ireland football with no reasoning and lots followed me thats the lemming thing your on about.not so in this case
Report dj876 April 18, 2013 11:02 AM BST
Just my opinion Kavvie and I wish ye the best of luck with the bet btw but how many of ye could name a Bournemouth player??

How can ye merit the logic of the reasoning if ye are not experts in League 1 soccer or Gaa Club Championships.

Ye are not forming an opinion ye are following blindly,the same way in Ireland when people were buying houses with 2% rental yields.
Report Ozymandius April 18, 2013 11:03 AM BST
that's nonsense, with respect.

Following Keen leaders tips on occasion does not imply that you are incapable of independent thought.

The irony is that refusing to follow them on the basis that you are an independent thinker singles you out as an inflexible non-independent thinker.  Surely independent thinkers, welcome advice, and then make their own decisions?

His track record is far beyond any other poster on here. Personally, I don't act on any other posters tips with any sort of consistency, if at all.   Reasoned arguments are given by KL for selections and you can choose to follow or not.  He may not be a professional football punter but you have to respect his judgement.
Report dj876 April 18, 2013 11:06 AM BST
"Surely independent thinkers, welcome advice, and then make their own decisions?"

To make one's own opinion after taking into account the welcome advice,would you not have to have a strong knowledge of the betting medium??

Ozy have you an in depth knowledge of Division 1 soccer??
Report Ozymandius April 18, 2013 11:11 AM BST
As you can see from my first post on this thread dj, very close to the top, I consulted a close friend who is a lifelong Bournemouth supporter and knows the league back to front.  He concurred with the assesment given by KL and I placed the bet.

And at this point in time, I am very glad that I did.
Report dj876 April 18, 2013 11:22 AM BST
Personally I would have to understand the market,I can understand considering other people's point of view and even them assisting me in my conclusion.

So your argument is that you didn't bet blind because you got two people's opinion??but admit that you have little or no knowledge of English Division 1 soccer??
Report wildmanfromborneo April 18, 2013 11:32 AM BST
Keen Leader does seem to be in a league of his own,I didn't back Bournemouth but funnily enough found myself looking up their result on a Sunday,its given me an interest in that league and here's hoping they go on and win it.

I would say the people of Bournemouth would be amazed at the amount of Irishmen cheering them on.
Report richters April 18, 2013 11:36 AM BST
dj i have no doubt in my mind that the gaa fanatic ozy knows at least a dozen players on the finuge team.............
Report kavvie April 18, 2013 11:39 AM BST
im one of these people who want to know why i should back such and such.if aidan o brien walked up to me and said he had a horse running in a maiden at dundalk who he thought was a g1 horse id still check breeding .any form etc.im an independent thinker who takes everything into account.sometimes im wrong.sometimes im right.like most people on here id imagine.
Report Rocketfingers April 18, 2013 11:41 AM BST
Hey richters got any more market movers oops sorry i mean information on horses expected to win, hopefully they won't double in price today and finish down the field LaughLaughLaugh
Report richters April 18, 2013 11:42 AM BST
dj told us all that hurricane fly was the lay of the century,granduoet was a good thing and long run wouldnt place in the gold cup....i hope noone followed him in blindly like sheep.....they would be on their uppers after cheltenham imvho........
Report dj876 April 18, 2013 11:43 AM BST
No stipulation about the ground not being soft either RichWink
Report richters April 18, 2013 11:44 AM BST
scumfingers go to the cliftonville thread and see how a real football bet is done........
Report richters April 18, 2013 11:45 AM BST
pity their wasnt a roof over cheltenham racecourse eh dj.......
Report dj876 April 18, 2013 11:46 AM BST
As I said Kavvie best of Luck with the bet,the lunatics have now taken over so GL.
Report kavvie April 18, 2013 11:46 AM BST
agree dj.time to go!!
Report richters April 18, 2013 11:48 AM BST
dj with comments like the one above comparing the thread to irelands housing boom......IT IS CLEAR WHO THE LUNATIC IS.........seriously go and get your head seen to.......
Report wildmanfromborneo April 18, 2013 11:49 AM BST
Dj876 put up a lot of winners as well and a blind follower of his selections would be in profit.

Richters has delivered a knockout blow to Ozymandius who trotted out this guff about an alleged friend being a Bournemouth supporter and not betting blind yet the bulk of his posts on here are about his Finuge bet and his scampering away with a minuscule profit.
Report reb April 18, 2013 11:51 AM BST
dj876 and kavvie are good judges.
Report Ozymandius April 18, 2013 2:02 PM BST
a knockout blow?  you pop out to catch some waves and return to find you have been 'knocked out'!

As regards betting blind, my sources, two good judges, concurred.  That was good enough for me to have an interest. 

Now admittedly dj, I would need to be personally informed on the market at hand to have a very significant bet, perhaps that is what you are referring to?

Off out for lunch, chaps.  I know Borneo likes to be informed of my movements!
Report Ozymandius April 18, 2013 2:04 PM BST
Funnily enough Borneo, my friend has a ticket for me for the Tranmere game.  I just can't face the Travel Lodge in Birkenhead and god knows how much lager.
Report kavvie April 18, 2013 2:13 PM BST
i was at a game in prenton park earlier in the season.v coventry.lovely little stadium.was drinking in the prenton arms before the game beside the stadium.the lager around liverpool is fair slop for sure..!
Report limestone lad April 20, 2013 5:07 PM BST
Well good results today think we are nearly there what a ride!!!!
Report kavvie April 20, 2013 7:15 PM BST
a win nex week or a loss and brentford win and they are champs.great crack all year..5 losses followed by 8 wins!!
Report Ozymandius April 21, 2013 1:49 AM BST
Championeee Championeee ole ole ole.

Viva Keen Leedeeer

Etc.
Report mp06 April 21, 2013 7:17 AM BST
Grin one more win please bournemouth Wink
Report kavvie April 21, 2013 11:57 AM BST
lets wait until the fat lady sings!
Report Cupwinkcook April 21, 2013 8:09 PM BST
place money money guaranteed

I bailed out at 5.2 so not the bonanza that others will get.

I see them beating Tranmere.
Doncaster v Brentford is a lottery especially as Brentford need to win to get automatic promotion. Doncaster on balance, would take a point.
Report frankalsoran60 April 21, 2013 8:13 PM BST
There was no posts on this thread for 5weeks because we thought the bet was down;.. just one fence to go now , out with the whip Cherries no slip up,s coming to the last.Crazy
Report DECALEC April 21, 2013 11:39 PM BST
guys i know theres only one game left and looks all over bar the shouting but why wait, i dont know what your stakes are that if its enough to lay off i had £50 @5/1 and sold £36 of it last night @ 1.18 when i seen the betting i couldnt refuse so if they fall(god forbid)at the last all will not be lost so next week its either 200/300 lets hope its the 3Wink
Report db1974 April 22, 2013 12:26 PM BST
I've backed Doncaster at 5/1 to return about half of what the Bournemouth bet will return, also put €2 on Brentford at 400/1 (just in case like!)

They have been matched at 150.0 on here so fair play to whoever got that
Report Ozymandius April 27, 2013 4:14 PM BST
I trust we are all watching the live scores!  Going down to the wire.  Have laid off at 1.2 but would still like to see them crowned Champs.
Report kavvie April 27, 2013 4:16 PM BST
nightmare scenario is donc getting a last min winner..
Report frankalsoran60 April 27, 2013 4:19 PM BST
70% of the play so far..lets be having a goal Cherries
Report kavvie April 27, 2013 4:32 PM BST
a goal wud soothe the nerves.
Report kavvie April 27, 2013 4:58 PM BST
ffs ...i fckuing knew it...ball..oc..ks
Report limestone lad April 27, 2013 4:59 PM BST
unbelievable
Report workrider April 27, 2013 4:59 PM BST
unreal...
Report frankalsoran60 April 27, 2013 4:59 PM BST
Cry
Report Ozymandius April 27, 2013 5:00 PM BST
What a finish...extraordinary scenes!
Report kavvie April 27, 2013 5:00 PM BST
my fcuking god...the most unlucky thing ever
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods April 27, 2013 5:03 PM BST
Spot on at 16:16 Kavvie

Unlucky all
Report Mr Mischief April 27, 2013 5:03 PM BST
Talk about a tough beat
Report Roger De Bris April 27, 2013 5:07 PM BST
threw e100 ew on it at 5/1 and decided to let it ride today....CryLaugh
that's a feckin sickener...
Report Mr Mischief April 27, 2013 5:08 PM BST
Into injury time at 0-0 in the Division 3 winner take all promotion clash at Griffin Park between Brentford and Doncaster (Brenford need to win)
Brentford are awarded a penalty - Marcelo Trotter hits the crossbar
Doncaster go down the other end of the pitch and score
Leaders Bournemouth only draw - Doncaster are Division 3 champions
Report frankalsoran60 April 27, 2013 5:13 PM BST
BRENTFORD MISS A PENO [BALL HITS CROSSBAR] IN THE LAST MIN , DONCASTER BREAK UP FIELD AND SCORE ..REF BLOWS WHISTLE.Sad.. I HAVE TO SAY I GOT A GREAT RUN OUT OF THIS BET ..U/LUCKY K.L...Go raibh maith agat.M8
Report Roger De Bris April 27, 2013 5:14 PM BST
Thanks to Keen Leader, ripped off.
Report kavvie April 27, 2013 5:19 PM BST
i was just talking to a lad who was at it.it was the last passage of play.if he hit it over the bar it was over.fffffs
Report workrider April 27, 2013 5:52 PM BST
A cruel way to end a great journey ....
Report kavvie April 27, 2013 8:40 PM BST
its on you tube..painful viewing..i had a good ew bet on papparazi kid.it eased the pain a small bit
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods April 27, 2013 8:41 PM BST
Laugh So predictable Kavvie
Report kavvie April 27, 2013 8:52 PM BST
do u want proof?!?
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods April 27, 2013 9:04 PM BST
No Thanks. Aftertiming Filth
Report db1974 April 27, 2013 9:35 PM BST
Ok I've finally regained the ability to speak again

Jesus that was some kick in the knackers
Report richters April 27, 2013 9:42 PM BST
db was that the shock of the late bet busting goal or the audacity of kavvie claiming a 7/1 winner 3 hours after the race......lol
Report Dan Chipowski April 27, 2013 9:46 PM BST
LaughLaugh
Report youresomean April 27, 2013 10:52 PM BST
we've all been gutted when chinned on the line, but this raises it into a new dimension.

well done kl it was a great ride.  and most will have made a profit on the deal.
Report mp06 April 28, 2013 6:40 AM BST
Cry what a way for bet to go down Cry sickener
Report DECALEC April 28, 2013 8:25 AM BST
youresomean
27 Apr 13 22:52
Joined:
03 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 1,959 | Blogger: youresomean's blog
we've all been gutted when chinned on the line, but this raises it into a new dimension.

well done kl it was a great ride.  and most will have made a profit on the deal.ANYONE THAT DIDN'T IF THEY GOT ON AT 11/2 5/1 NEEDS THEYRE HEAD EXAMINEDCrazyWELL DONE KEEN LEADER FOR THIS OPPERTUNITYLove
Report mp06 April 28, 2013 8:29 AM BST
i need my head examined Mischief
Report db1974 May 2, 2013 12:44 PM BST
Here's the last minute of Brentford vs Doncaster, in case anyone hasn't seen it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF8dLCdgdRg
Report frankalsoran60 May 2, 2013 2:16 PM BST
Unreal DB, TX FOR THE MEMORY CryCry.....The Devil was at work in Brentford
Report workrider May 2, 2013 3:38 PM BST
I see a piece in the r/post yesterday about the guy who got the winner , THE DIKLER i think , wrote that he's banned from racecourses and seemed to hint he should be banned from playing football as well , for some shall we say indiscretions .....
Report reb May 2, 2013 3:49 PM BST
The ending shouldn't take away from the fact that this was a very good tip from keen leader.
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