the each way play

dv i read same thread and i thought 2s was a more than fair price.and id say whether he had it up here or not didnt interfere with the price.7/4 was first price i seen and people looke dat it and seen the conundrum and links..ted-nina-barry-aj- etc.and ted w doesnt train too many bumper winners so thats one reason price held?

Who knows kavvie, but early ricks were possible. I wouldn't be able to get the 365 price so probably did not matter in that case, but the record of the stable and some strong form and fancied sorts in the race should have merited bigger than 7/4.

Anyway I will stop discussing that as this is about his bets, his wins and the discussion around that, so my input is not needed and very likely, unwelcome.

Good luck with the rest of the project.

Hopefully no one gives them fockers the heads up tonite, for tomorrows tip (from the first two races in Sedgefield).

KL thread has been brilliant and a tremendous success but this is going to sound crazy to all you guys in that I do hope he stops after the 20days as if he continues with this type of success and the continued highlighting of bad EW racing it will make it more difficult to get on in these races

Clearly KL is a very astute punter but in airing his views on a continued basis he going create lots of KL’s who are not doing the legwork and in the long-term make it very difficult to get on these type of races

Spotting the bad EW race is easy enough but picking the right one is the hard bit

I bow my head to KL but hope he stops after the 20days and gets lots of thanks for those early Xmas present he has handed out

Fair enough DV.  Good spot on the tv channel.

well done K L keep up the good work

THIS thread is running out of Superlatives to describe K.L TIPS.   WELL DONE

KEEN LEADER’s “Judgement, Luck and Discipline.....



DAY 1. - 26 Oct 12 11:47 IFANDBUTWHYNOT 12.30 Newcastle, 3/1 BOG, 100 e/w.

DAY 2. - 27 Oct 12 11:45 100 e/w SPECIAL ACCOUNT 5/1 (pp or 6/1 Laddies if you can get) 1/5 1,2,3 in the betting w/o Wonderful Charm in Chepstow 3.40.

DAY 3. - 29 Oct 12 11 The Naas bumper, 100 e/w THUNDER AND ROSES 7/2 BOG.

DAY 4. - 30 Oct 12 13:25 No suitable bet today, you cannot force it, so money back.

DAY 5. - 31 Oct 12 11:06 100 e/w SIZZLER 9/4 BOG 1.55 Nottingham.


DAY 6. - 1 Nov 12 11:22 100 e/w DUNE SHINE 8/1 bog 1.40 Stratford.


DAY 7. - 2 Nov 12 13:33 100 e/w BUXOM 8/1 BOG Uttoxeter 1.20.

DAY 8. - 02 Nov 12 22:26 I dont have a bet for Saturday, so the account reads -1216 rolling on to Monday.

Just for the weekend - the market is wrong regarding the Leinster Hurling Club quarter final between Rathdowney and Clonkill.  currently 7/4 Rathdowney, 4/7 Clonkill.
Based on PPower prices, I have punted RATHDOWNEY, straight at 7/4, +2 at 11/10, to win 4-6pt at 8/1, to win 7-9pts at 14/1, with my biggest bet Rathdowney half time/full time at a whopping 11/2.....whopping because they are a great front running team.

DAY 9. - 05 Nov 12 10:48 No bet today.

DAY 10. - 06 Nov 12 11:19 100 e/w JUST A PAR 3/1 BOG  2.25 Punchestown.

DAY 11. - 07 Nov 12 11:23 100 e/w TWARY 5.55 Kempton 7/2 BOG.

DAY 12. - 08 Nov 12 11:07 100 e/w AS I AM 6/1 bog 120 Towcester.

DAY 13. - 09 Nov 12 10:34 100 e/w YOUNG HURRICANE 9/4 BOG 1.10 Fontwell.

DAY 14. - 10 Nov 12 12:25 No bet today +415 with 6 days left, next update Monday morning.

DAY 15. - 12 Nov 12 11:23 100 e/w NO DEAL 5/2 BOG  4.00 Carlisle.
DAY 16. –
DAY 17. –
DAY 18. –
Day 19. –
DAY 20. – “i.e. until SATURDAY 3 weeks”

brilliant stuff,nearly up there with bobbyocala napping sarsfields to win the cork SHC ,keep it up lads,great forum

yeah.... nearly

KEEN LEADER’s “Judgement, Luck and Discipline.....



DAY 1. - 26 Oct 12 11:47 IFANDBUTWHYNOT 12.30 Newcastle, 3/1 BOG, 100 e/w. (won at 9/4)
DAY 2. - 27 Oct 12 11:45 100 e/w SPECIAL ACCOUNT 5/1 (pp or 6/1 Laddies if you can get) 1/5 1,2,3 in the betting w/o Wonderful Charm in Chepstow 3.40. (7th but Wonderful Charm won)
DAY 3. - 29 Oct 12 11 The Naas bumper, 100 e/w THUNDER AND ROSES 7/2 BOG. (Won at SP 10/11f)
DAY 4. - 30 Oct 12 13:25 No suitable bet today, you cannot force it, so money back.
DAY 5. - 31 Oct 12 11:06 100 e/w SIZZLER 9/4 BOG 1.55 Nottingham. (10th)
DAY 6. - 1 Nov 12 11:22 100 e/w DUNE SHINE 8/1 bog 1.40 Stratford. (Won at 5/2f)
DAY 7. - 2 Nov 12 13:33 100 e/w BUXOM 8/1 BOG Uttoxeter 1.20. (3rd at 13/2)
DAY 8. - 02 Nov 12 22:26 I dont have a bet for Saturday, so the account reads -1216 rolling on to Monday.
Just for the weekend - the market is wrong regarding the Leinster Hurling Club quarter final between Rathdowney and Clonkill.  currently 7/4 Rathdowney, 4/7 Clonkill.
Based on PPower prices, I have punted RATHDOWNEY, straight at 7/4, +2 at 11/10, to win 4-6pt at 8/1, to win 7-9pts at 14/1, with my biggest bet Rathdowney half time/full time at a whopping 11/2.....whopping because they are a great front running team.
DAY 9. - 05 Nov 12 10:48 No bet today.
DAY 10. - 06 Nov 12 11:19 100 e/w JUST A PAR 3/1 BOG  2.25 Punchestown. (Won at 9/4)
DAY 11. - 07 Nov 12 11:23 100 e/w TWARY 5.55 Kempton 7/2 BOG. (6th)
DAY 12. - 08 Nov 12 11:07 100 e/w AS I AM 6/1 bog 120 Towcester. (3rd at 5/1)
DAY 13. - 09 Nov 12 10:34 100 e/w YOUNG HURRICANE 9/4 BOG 1.10 Fontwell. (Won at 15/8f)
DAY 14. - 10 Nov 12 12:25 No bet today +415 with 6 days left, next update Monday morning.
DAY 15. - 12 Nov 12 11:23 100 e/w NO DEAL 5/2 BOG  4.00 Carlisle. (Won at 7/2)
DAY 16. –
DAY 17. –
DAY 18. –
Day 19. –
DAY 20. – “i.e. until SATURDAY 3 weeks”

+ 1035 

100 e/w defaoithesdream 7/4 BOG 12.50 sedgefield

What is BOG ?

Best Odds Guaranteed.

Guaranteed Price, Gotchee.

Super pickin KL.

Guaranteed Best price, sorry.

Thanks.

Well done, KL. As I suggested in my post on the first page of this thread, would someone care to work out how much profit the thread would be in if KL had used 200 win only rather than 100 e/w? As anticipated, profit will be far greater using win only.

Roughly 3700 to 200 win only stakin

Cheers, BJG. Hopefully this small example will help some realise that each-way betting is generally poor value compared to win only.

Well since I have been updating the thread regularly with records using €100 win-only, to change to €200 win-only isn't difficult

€100 win only: +1645
€100 place part: +419

Ifandbutwhynot: won @ 3/1 +300
Special Account (w/o fav): lost +200
Thunder And Roses: won @ 5/2 +450 (settled at 5/2 per KL)
Sizzler: lost +350
Dune Shine: won @ 7.2/1 (advised @ 8/1 - rule 4 of 90p) +1070
Buxom: lost +970
Just A Par: won @ 3/1 +1270
Twary: lost +1170
As I Am: lost +1070
Young Hurricane: won @ 9/4 +1295
No Deal: won @ 7/2 +1645

Catch Me ifyoucan 12 Nov 12 17:20
Hopefully no one gives them fockers the heads up tonite, for tomorrows tip (from the first two races in Sedgefield).

KL,
I had it down to your tip (or Blackwater King), and/or Tick Tocker in the next for my own double (as I thought a Dromahane pt winner can't be too bad an animal). I'm sure there wasn't much in it, in your "judgement".

Did you see any of those pt-to-pt's 'live'.



ps
IF 'Tick T' wins then De Blacksmith (at 66/1 - 2.00 Ling) might just place while Bobby dazzler, over on Antepost, thinks his "is pretty decent".

An eerie quiet has descended ....the unthinkable has happened ...no one knows what to say.
Let me break the dam ....that's racing  , you can't win 'em all , temporary break in service.
I have to say though -while doffing my cap to the astute and redoubtable KL -the laces of whose punting boots I am singularly unfitted to tie- e/w betting on prices as low as 7/4 seems a little dubious.
Godd luck for the rest of the project.

Can't win them all.

As much as I am loathe to back the rancid Maloney/Williams combo I had to follow

Nothing dubious to backing e/w at 7/4.

agree dan ....

The EW for me is much better than win only because you got to factor in something that hasn't happen to this project....The bad run..... that all punters no matter how good they are suffer at some stage. I
I accept the profit is minimal on the place part but as the old saying goes if you cant win ....try not to lose

Part of the game,onwards and upwards.

greatstuffkeenleader

its all part of the game , anyone who thinks winner after winner is the norm should not be betting imo....again this horse was punted , was given every chance , simply not good enough on the day , as punchestown says , on wards and upwards ...keep em coming keen leader.....

indeed wr.

remarkable run all the same.

I don;t think the knowledge of the op is in doubt anyway. a very formidable punter and this is evidenced by many of his previous threads. Quite funny when they tear in to him when the occasional loss happens. I'm glad they can't see my punting history

I havent backed a single selecion on this thread btw, i only back selections based on my own thoughts.......thats the problem perhaps

good to hear from you ilvab ...at least you stand and fall on your own sword ..my daughter was down our old neighborhood recently ....

im in the folks now at the moment :) running for the 7.17 train now.

be on later.

ok ..off out myself till around ten or later ..talk soon.....

no bet today.

+1235 3 days left.

DAY 15. - 12 Nov 12 11:23 100 e/w NO DEAL 5/2 BOG  4.00 Carlisle. (Won at 7/2)
DAY 16. – 13 Nov 12 11:19 100 e/w DEFAOITHESDREAM 7/4 BOG 12.50 Sedgefield (4th)
DAY 17. – 14 Nov 12 10:58 No bet today.
DAY 18. – "Descipline" tells me no bet again today unless your a giant of a man in bumpers.
Day 19. –
DAY 20. – “i.e. until SATURDAY 3 weeks”

Perhaps you might give us your thoughts on 'Buckers Bridge' (RSA/ARKLE if atall) ?

100 e/w noble friend 3/1 BOG 4.10 taunton.

100 e/w la belle doyenne 14/1 bog 1.00 lingfield.

Going for the big one today - good luck

Ditto

that'll do nicely, thanks

hit 4 ir, just for a second I thought mmmmmmmmmmmm 36.0

3s ir.i thought at top of the straight we wud be cracking open champagne

Well done again

i would love to know the bookie that will take the bad each way bets coz you will get ran

Why the negativity canthavehim.

I don't think it's negativity Eddie.
The scenario on the thread is transparent and familiar to any shrewd punter from years back .
Most of my early profits from punting ( I'm talking 1970s and 1980s ) were of the type where you picked out races where there at most two or three horses with a predictable chance. The ideal type was where there was a longish odds-on fav and a second fav around 4/1 to 6/1 range.
Experience showed that the second favs were usually placed , occasionally won and only rarely unplaced.It was a good route to stady returns.
It didn't take the bookies long to work things out. I had 9 accounts closed.
I tried to conceal my ploy by spreading bets around or by coupling my bet with a known non-runner. Eventually it became too much of a hassle so I withdrew from all but recreational punting-until the exchanges appeared.
Also -around the 1990s -the structure of races was comprehensively changed -and many opportunities disappeared .
Modern fare is full of claimers , auction maidens , conditions races and mostly small fields. Many racing days there might not be more than two or three races with 8 runners anyway.
Plus , the fact that the OP has enjoyed a profitable run doesn't deprive us of our critical faculties.

You make it sound very straightforwrd, Vubiant.  It is far from that in my experience!  The strategy you described as 'familiar to shrewd punters' is very simple and basic...was it really considered cutting edge in the 70's?

Obviously KL picks races conducive to EW betting but that is the easy part.  I can only assume that he has an impressive range of contacts, is clued in with the scene, a shrewd race reader with plenty of time to devote to studying races and does his homework.  I could be wrong but I would imagine the contact base is the most important factor, especially with Irish racing.

Only two of his selections have run in Ireland so the contacts bit is nonsense,just accept he is a shrewd punter and good judge of the market.

You don't think he is well connected   Seriously?  And I don't see that it makes him any less of a shrewd punter!

He is based in Laoise understands the market and is a good judge,dont think he needs these contacts.
Were he to have these contacts he wouldnt have them for long after this great thread.

They won't close your betfair account.

The opening tip of this fantastic thread runs tomorrow, in a decent Hcap hurdle at Chelts-Ifandbutwhynot,the runner up(Eduard), to him that day, was impressive in a weak race today,might be overpriced @ 10.0.
Competitive race tho and Pipe looks to have lined up the fav for it,in a race and meeting that the Pipe's tend to target.

I see Rathdowney play again in the next round on Sunday. Away to Offaly's Kilcormac.

Best priced 3/1, PP running scared at 9/4

Anyone got the return on the place stake at betfair best price or SP? In an otherwise illuminating and interesting thread the bookmaker place bet is the somewhat controversial aspect.

Of course he has contacts wildman as the Ted Walsh horse from last Sunday indicates. He can be heard commentating on probably half of the ptp videos that anyone watches so it is safe to assume that he well immersed in this scene and has plenty of contacts.

I assume that he also sees all these horses pre-race and afterwards and can assess their level of fitness, performance, ability of the handler etc so should and does possess a very strong knowledge of the horses that emerge from the ptp field.

That only takes you so far and race reading and form study is crucial as well and it is difficult to find fault with this skill, based on this and other threads.

+1615

100 e/w mister hotelier 4/1 bog 3.50 punchestown.....and unlike most of you i saw(and backed) the jolly when he won his point, beating donkeys. this should be a 4/7 6/4 race at worst, not a baffling 2/9, 4/1....willie has been working all these bymper types in schooling races of late at thurles, and for the record,the one that stood out was the ex slattery pointer faugheen. no bet r/e v k/k.

just 6 runners, and a match so, 1.31 v 5.5 on here now market light doh..............

whats r/e v k/k?

rathdowney

VDbet obviously reading this. They're shortest the 2nd jolly

Wheels coming off

cant win em all... nearly has on this thread tbf

Note that Faugheen is down to run next Thursday.....ssssssushhhh.

"Hopefully no one gives them fockers the heads up" the nite before !

end of circus then at +1615 on 3k staking, a little over 50% return.
this is not a quick rich method, a slow drip drip if you do the work.

one final point, you will win if you go against the lazy myopic consensus. for example, the 2 pipe greys dynaste and our father delivered in style over the weekend. the easily impressed will lord them as festival bankers etc. i dont, i rate both horses as the sort to produce their best each season when fresh from a significant break. they will regress if kept busy. unless they are put away and dont reappear until the festival, then i would rate their prospects of repeating these november performances come march as remote.

Well done keen leader and thanks - excellent stuff

WD KL.

Go raibh maith agat k.l.

Great thread KL, well done.

As dj876 noted last night, the 1st tip did the biz again in the last at Cheltenham, strange the way things work out.  Might be an idea to keep an eye of some of the winners from this thread up to Xmas.

Couple of things on the final results (I make it +1644 but what's a few EURO between friends):

€100 win portion: +€1,245
€100 place portion: +€399

Horses advised at 4/1 or under

€100 win portion: +€925
€100 place portion: -€215 (yes a loss of €215)

Now these figures are skewed slightly as no horse priced at 4/1 or less was placed without winning. However even if 3 of those 5 losers had been placed (lets take 2 that were advised at 100/30) the place portion of the bets would have yielded a profit of just €119 and this is with 7 placed horses from 10 bets.

I am still firmly of the belief that if you are backing hoses at 4/1 or less on a regular basis then you need to be backing winners to be making money, relying on placed efforts will kill you in the long run

Taking the entire 2 weeks as a whole, a whole €280 of the place profit of €399 was earned by the 3rd-placed finish of La Belle Doyenne who finished 3rd at 14/1 on the 2nd last day. This race was a classic each-way race with an odds-on favourite and 8 runners.

The main point to take from the above paragraph though is that the other 20 days showed a profit of just €119 (or barely over 1 point) from 15 bets while the win portion of those 15 bets showed a profit of €1,145 from just €1,500 staked.

The title of the thread is "the each way play" but the irony of the results is that horses priced at 4/1 and under (the majority of the selections) are not each-way prospects, except in exceptional circumstances which, IMO, can be limited to 2 situations:

1. 2nd-4th favourite where the favourite is odds-on and there are 8-9 runners in the race
2. You are having a good bet on something (well above your normal stake) and don't want to end up with nothing

Other than that I am yet to be convinced that each-way betting is a viable proposition on a regular basis.

Although I appear to be in a small minority here

At the beginning of the thread KL points out that the eachway betting is for a positive mindset that even though you are making a lose you are still collecting something back. The thread has been very successful but Im sure there would be weeks when the winners would finish second or third and then your data would read very different db.
2 weeks is only a micro second in betting terms imo.

Well done to KL €1600 over 20 days is extremely good punting and if it could be replicated throughout the year would produce 20k on the year, which would pay for the nice things in life
   
DB the thread was fairly clear from the start it was EW although the forum does allow for you to do the WIN PLOY over the next 20 days so I would applaud KL for putting his head on the block

Not many people get a ROI of just under 50% in this game albeit over a short period I would suggest KL would show a decent profit in the long run which as I said pays for the nice things in life

Well Done KL

Well done KL, very enjoyable, thanks for all the information.

I didn't think it could be done to be honest!

When can we look forward to another similar thread?

Well done KL a sensational effort.

I cant understand what db1974 is trying to prove, maybe he could give us a similar thread using his own betting strategy because he obviously has a better one.

If you can't understand it maybe you need to read it again

Giant Strides 18 Nov 12 08:32....Give me somebody tipping good priced winners of big races, over e/w 7/4 shots in egg and spoon events, anyday!


CLASSIC THREAD ! wd K.L.

.....'Under the eye of the stewards' on here for 2 weeks (excluding Sundays of course) and wins over 1600 bucks, that deserves applause !

CMiyc!
Caught red handed. Guilty your honour.

just takin' the p.....

bestthread2012

Catch Me ifyoucan 13 Nov 12 13:11.......
ps
IF 'Tick T' wins then De Blacksmith (at 66/1 - 2.00 Ling) might just place while Bobby dazzler, over on Antepost, thinks his "is pretty decent"..........Won since AND again today

KL,

Maiden on Wed may be of interest given that you "saw (and backed) the jolly when he won his point, beating donkeys"

Btw still waiting on Mrs Ricci other one to win (Ballysteen winner) - then off to Chelt ? - 25's with PP atm.

FYI
http://www.freeforum101.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=80694&sid=cf9cb0aafedafbcc297cb6b17b3b0d7e&mforum=lsl

keen leader 17 Nov 12 11:17
+1615

100 e/w mister hotelier 4/1 bog 3.50 punchestown.....and unlike most of you i saw(and backed) the jolly when he won his point, beating donkeys..........the one that stood out was the ex slattery pointer faugheen.


NICE ONE, today, thanks again !






Mister Hotelier got off the mark with a cosy success in the opening maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse.
The 5/1 shot (from 6/1) had been runner-up in three bumpers but made no mistake this time as he opened his account.

Colm Murphy's charge tracked the leaders before taking closer order after the third last.
Robbie Power sent his mount to the front, from Akatara, at the second last and he stuck on well in the closing stages.
5/4 favourite Sarabad challenged on the inner two out but was untidy there and despite trying hard to chase down the favourite from the last had to settle for second, beaten a length-and-three-quarters.

The winner had run once over hurdles previously in November 2011 before his run of placed efforts in bumpers.
He had disappointed, however, on his most recent start last November.
“He disappointed in his bumper the last day but he probably wasn't quite right afterwards,” said Murphy.
“He's going the right way and was entitled to do that on his bumper form. We'll see what mark he gets now.
“He's been schooling well and jumped well there today. Hopefully on nicer ground he might improve a bit as well.”

Tks to Alan Magee - Irish Racing.

Catch Me ifyoucan 06 Jan 13 19:06
FYI
http://www.freeforum101.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=80694&sid=cf9cb0aafedafbcc297cb6b17b3b0d7e&mforum=lsl

Mate of mine was down there today gave me a few horses they think a bit of the triumph hurdle horse they have is called DIAKALI Ricci owns it.

The new horses in they think a bit of the one he said they really like is called FAUGHEEN won his p2p in april I think bolted up working well

Rough justice is another point to pointer they like,harry kirk buys the french one has a real good one called TOUCH THE EDEN working very well and one he was told to back when it runs in the bumper is called CLONDAW COURT,

Theres a virus in the fillys yard at the moment by the way all on medication so word of warning if tarla runs on thurday over fences mightnt be right.briar hill will win first time up aswell he said
Hopefully the thread is profitable to follow I'd advise you to put these in a tracker should really be charging for this info

Catch Me ifyoucan 13 Nov 12 13:11
KL,
I had it down to your tip (or Blackwater King), and/or Tick Tocker (Donald McCain) in the next for my own double (as I thought a Dromahane pt winner can't be too bad an animal). I'm sure there wasn't much in it, in your "judgement".



KL,
International may apeal today at 4.50 (especially after being 7l in front of De Blacksmith - won twice since - in Dromahane). (Tick Toc's been a little disappointing so far !)

horrible horrible effort from muckhoy there....

Easied down when he knew...another day for sure, I blame the ground.

*eased

a pig.....NAP

Catch Me ifyoucan 12 Jan 13 16:44

Catch Me ifyoucan 06 Jan 13 19:06
FYI
http://www.freeforum101.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=80694&sid=cf9cb0aafedafbcc297cb6b17b3b0d7e&mforum=lsl

Mate of mine was down there today gave me a few horses they think a bit of the triumph hurdle horse they have is called DIAKALI Ricci owns it.

The new horses in they think a bit of the one he said they really like is called FAUGHEEN won his p2p in april I think bolted up working well

Rough justice is another point to pointer they like,harry kirk buys the french one has a real good one called TOUCH THE EDEN working very well and one he was told to back when it runs in the bumper is called CLONDAW COURT,

keen leader 17 Nov 12 11:17
+1615

100 e/w mister hotelier 4/1 bog 3.50 punchestown.....and unlike most of you i saw(and backed) the jolly when he won his point, beating donkeys..........the one that stood out was the ex slattery pointer faugheen.

That bit of fishin' paid off me tinks

For all you gentlemen with short memories.

This thread was a master class,it also included a huge price mistake on a GAA match.

Masterclass my bolllixx..... A heap of snide ews that nobody can get on.... A baboon could come up with them bets.... Try to get on them is another matter... I think the lad got carried away with himself .... He was being painted by some as sort of punting genius ....leave me alone please....

Loads of them got on,you hardly think they were praising him for nothing.

They all got on Rathdowney as well at 7/4.

Now the basketball thread you were on back slapping away was one no one got on.

Only thing I know about basketball is the New Zealand team call themselves The Tall Blacks,great name.

Says the man who bets on French Basketball were the amount matched in a game this week was , wait for it £22 ....
Get into bed ya gobshyte , and at least let those who are brave enough to put their bets up  have some room...

one of the greatest threads ever..sadly scumm like paulie dickhead have driven all the decent people  off the forum.

Agree,it was some thread.