When the Classics on the flat are done and dussted for 2012 just after teatime tonight,thoughts will turn to Listowel and for what many will consider the proper start of genuine National Hunt racing. A new season with so many questions to answer (1)Is HURRICANE FLY a light of former days? How open is the Champion hurdle (2)Can SPRINTER SACRE prove himself a superstar and dominate the two mile scene and add to his five chase victories as a novice ? (3) Can SIR DES CHAMPS and FLEMENSTAR give Ireland Gold Cup success? (4) Are Ireland's two bumper sensations DON COSSACK and CHAMPAGNE FEVER set to dominate the novice hurdling ranks ? (5)Should SIMONSIG stay hurdling or go dominate the novice chasing ranks,clearly the horse to follow next season,a machine ! Hopefully Listowel will set the tone for a cracking National hunt season and during the course of this week we'll make a profitable start with a few selective punts ! It all start's Sunday and it looks a reasonable card with a few possible plays.
2-20 Kerry Ingredients & Flavours 3-Y-O Hurdle of €15,000.00 3-y-o This is a complete match with two stables who often target this meeting likely to dominate. In fact Meade and Harrington have each won this twice in the last 5 years.On a formline through ZAIN there should be precious little between TOP MAN MICHAEL and HURRICANE RIDGE. TOP MAN MICHAEL hacked up in a Galway flat handicap and two days later ,he was none the worse for wear in running out a snug length and three quarter winner under Davy Condon on his hurdling debut at Roscommon HURRICANE RIDGE beat ZAIN on his hurdling debut at Killarney,a venue he's won at twice. He rather lost his way after wining as a two year old but like many horses he's been rejuvenated by hurdling and despite a few errors won well in the end on his hurdles debut. HURRICANE RIDGE had a higher rating on the flat but it can be argued TOP MAN MICHAEL was always going to make a hurdler and has progressed rapidly this summer with wins at Wexford,Navan and Galway. TOP MAN MICHAEL goes on all ground but seems to prefer plenty of cut and his action suggests that soft ground is his preference. He also stays really well and I think Carberry might be best going for home first here and trying to draw the sting out of HURRICANE RIDGES finish. I just feel Meades horse travels well through his races,he can win from the front or be held up but I'd be kicking early to bring his stamina into use. I'm not sure if it's greenness or a dodgy trait but HURRICANE RIDGES head carriage slightly akward. Of the rest if money came for STOCKTONS WING you'd have to sit up and take note but you might see this horse go the handicap route. HABESH got no run of the race in Galway,he did a lot of the donkey work chasing Brady's tearaway leader. But had nothing left to fend off the two elliot runners,he also got a hefty bump but it's hard to see him reversing Killarney form with HURRICANE RIDGE. VERDICT: I just favour TOP MAN MICHAEL in what to me is a dead match over HURRICANE RIDGE,but I'd like Paul Carberry to kick early and not to ride a one dimensional Carrberry style ride. I feel TOP MAN MICHAEL can outstay his rival and any further rain would be a big plus. SELECTION (1)TOP MAN MICHAEL (2) HURRICANE RIDGE (3)HABESH 2-50 Kerrymaid Hurdle of €16,500.00 4-y-o plus The day's good thing runs here no point in delving into it too much. The fact that SILVER SHUFFLE is the second ratest horse here tells you all you want to know, Jimmy Coogan's horse has been a huge dissapointment and is a professional loser. RATTAN is a certainty here but will be priced accordingly,he is a model of consistency and ran really well in a hot Killarney handicap,he wasnt't disgraced in the Galway hurdle and simply romped home in Tramore. TRIBES AND BANNERS wants further and needs to come off a fast end to end gallop. The jolly has 11bs plus in hand and the only fly in the ointment might be the long absent Earlson Gray who was last seen second to GAGWELL FLYER in a Grade Two hurdle at Punchestown in January 2011. He is still a maiden over hurdles but he won a chase in France and he can't run in maidens as a result. He'll stick to conditions and novice hurdles but the fact he left Willie Mullins yard suggests some problems in the interim. He might still be the danger. But to me RATTAN is a good thing to give Ruby a welcome return to the saddle ! VERDICT:RATTAN is a good thing unless major word comes for EARLSON GRAY SELECTION:(1)RATTAN (NAP) (2)EARLSON GRAY (3)TRIBES AND BANNERS
3-20 Charleville Cheese Maiden Hurdle of €11,500.00 5-y-o plus Despite a big field and the presence of a Willie Mullins runner this is a dead match and an ideal race to punt two against the large field !!! I love second season novices,horses who ran well gaining invaluable experience in maiden hurdles last season and two fit the bill here in that context in the shape of MINELLA FOR VALUE and SKY PILOT. I think it's a dead match and this duo can outclass the field ! MINELLA FOR VALUE went back into the point-to-point sphere before returning to the racecourse proper in April , landing a Cork Easter point to point bumper in a facile all the way manner. The Old Vic gelding had shown plenty of promise over hurdles last season in two runs at Punchestown, chasing home the exciting Noel Meade horse Sword Of Destiny and then finishing a fine third to Cairdin and Sin Palo. John Nallen's gelding looked awesome in Liscarroll jumping for fun and I'd imagine Davy will try to make all here on Sunday. He had Sky Pilot behind on the second of those two starts at Punchestown but Joanna Morgans horse is fit and well after a productive summer which saw him go up a stone after a Dundalk and Limerick success and a great Curragh second to CAPTAIN CEE BEE. He stays mad and this 3 miles will suit him hugely,he wants an end to end gallop but the only doubt is that good or fast ground suit him best ! He can handle this ground though and has only 2 1/2Lenghts to find with MINELLA FOR VALUE . Of the rest Connaught Manor won a weak Roscommon bumper and was bitterly dissapointing behind a dodgepot winner of a Bellewstown Maiden Hurdle !King Malik and Roadtoabbeyfeale are moderate summer horses who should win at their level but would be huge shock if they can match strides with the proper National hunt pair. VERDICT:I'm punting MINELLA FOR VALUE to win andalso backing SKY PILOT to win something. I wouldn't mind backing the pair at 5/4 combined. I just prefer MINELLA FOR VALUE although his front runing will help SKY PILOT who loves a strong end to end gallop. A match in my viw . It's all about opinions !!!! SELECTION:(1)MINELLA FOR VALUE(N.B) (2)SKY PILOT (3)ROADTOABBEYFEALE 3-50 Low Low European Breeders Fund Mares Handicap Hurdle (Rated 81-116) of €12,500.00 4-y-o plus Not for me looks a trappy minefield. If you can fancy the winner you'll be rewarded at attractive odds. It looks a 6/1 Field race! For the needy and greedy perhaps a stab each way at the lightly weighted The Colleen Ban who rewarded support at big prices landing a morning gamble when producing a game front-running performance in the mares maiden hurdle at Roscommon on the 3rd September.She should relish going left handed now as she must have conceded at least 10-15 lengths constantly jumping left on that right handed circiut. Shes gone up 8lbs for that win ,the nine-year-old, had shown only moderate form previously and came into the race holding a lowly rating of 88. She beat a fair tool in OSCARS JOY. The question is was it a fluke or is there much more to come from a very shrewd outfit ! A yard who can ready them for a punt. If you must maybe a little each way on THE COLLEEN BAWN 4-20 Cheestrings Beginners Steeplechase of €14,000.00 4-y-o plus CAIRDIN cost me a bundle in Galway I was on at all rates from 2/1 and has been a costly horse to this observer,he also cost me at this venue last year in a maiden hurdle,he got outpaced and flew home. A huge plus is Andrew McNamara takes over from Danny Mullins who in my view isn't up to riding at this level. CAIRDIN is a Mans ride you need to kick and shove from a long way out as he's bone idle but has an engine when he gets in full flow ! CAVITE BETA ran a cracker in Killarney behind the talented BALLYADAM BROOK. He holds MACKEYS FORGE on that run ! He looked an awesome prospect early on first with Charlie Brookes and than with Nicky Henderson,he sluiced up in a Towcester bumper one day when I was told he could not get beaten!!!. He is a bold front runner and will be therabouts ! The dark horse here is the talented Farrells Fancy if the market speaks in his favour !!! Burn And Turn is also a possible in a tricky but sure to be informative race. I'll look on at this race. VERDICT:Market will be informative I'd be surprised if the winner doesnt come from CAIRDIN,CAVITE BETA,BURN AND TURN and FARELLS FANCY. But no bet for me 4-50 Dawn Milk Handicap Steeplechase of €34,000.00 4-y-o plus KALELLSHAN jumps like a buck but is up 18lbs for Killarney. His trainer is some man to improve them and keep them on the boil (INIS MEAIN) . The ground is a concern as he seems best on good or ar worst good to soft ! If they opt to run he'll be hard to beat. I'm gona look on neither lay or play him. the opposition all have huge big question marks at least he's on the upward curve. VERDICT:No Bet 5-20 Kerry Group Flat Race of €9,500.00 5/7-y-o I'm not a huge bumper fan and if I'm behind at this stage I'll already have thrown in the towel. If in front I'll be minding it !!!!! Best OF LUCK !!!! I'll update for each day !
In a moderate year CAMELOT was hyped out of all proportion and nearly got away unbeaten. But best horse won the Leger. The drum bells rang for me after he fell in against the non stayer BORN TO SEA in the worst Irish derby ever staged ! CAMELOT is an average derby winner in a very poor year for 3 year Olds !!! Roll on the national hunt season..Leave DAWN APPROACH win first
In a moderate year CAMELOT was hyped out of all proportion and nearly got away unbeaten. But best horse won the Leger. The drum bells rang for me after he fell in against the non stayer BORN TO SEA in the worst Irish derby ever staged !CAMELOT is an
Barzalona almost fell off after the line doing the idiot again waving his whip,he got unbalanced and it's hardly a Health and Safety man's dream to see this guy celebrate !!!!! Slap a big fine on him ! Sets a bad example to young riders !!!
Barzalona almost fell off after the line doing the idiot again waving his whip,he got unbalanced and it's hardly a Health and Safety man's dream to see this guy celebrate !!!!!Slap a big fine on him ! Sets a bad example to young riders !!!
Last word on the flat til the Dewhurst Meeting and champions Day...It looks as if DAWN APPROACH will end the season unbeaten and win a dewhurst but then Godolphin will end up doing no good with it next year,a serious horse to have won the first race of the season and over a trip way too short for it ! A super horse and a bleak day for Balydoyle no harm to keep the top tier on their toes.they overhype horses purely for Stud purposes...
Last word on the flat til the Dewhurst Meeting and champions Day...It looks as if DAWN APPROACH will end the season unbeaten and win a dewhurst but then Godolphin will end up doing no good with it next year,a serious horse to have won the first race
(1)HURRICANE FLY will p**s all over his opposition this season. I'm 99% sure he just had an off day in the CH last season and he's a mile clear of everything else over hurdles, especially now that Spirit Son is out of the picture. Every time I make a few quid this season, I'm just gonna top up on him for Cheltenham. (2)Think SPRINTER SACRE is by far the horse to beat. Big Zeb & Sizing Europe will struggle this season and the only horse to perhaps threaten SS is Finian's Rainbow but I've an incling that they may step him up in trip this season. (3) I think Ireland have a superb Gold Cup team this year, headed by SIR DES CHAMPS and FLEMENSTAR. We can't forget First Lieutenant, Last Instalment & Weapons Amnesty either. (4) Both DON COSSACK and CHAMPAGNE FEVER look special but isn't the plan to go novice chasing with Champagne Fever? I think Willie could have a really good team to go to battle with in the novice department this season, most notably Boston Bob in the staying novice chases. (5) Surely SIMONSIG should go over fences as, as you have said, he should dominate the novice chasing ranks. The Arkle looks at his mercy.
As for Listowel tomorrow, I'm sweet on Hurricane Ridge in the opening juvenile hurdle. I think he's the bet of the day.
To answer your first points, here goes.(1)HURRICANE FLY will p**s all over his opposition this season. I'm 99% sure he just had an off day in the CH last season and he's a mile clear of everything else over hurdles, especially now that Spirit Son is
Fair comments all round !!!! Its a great time of year looking forward...I got destroyed on HURRICANE FLY in Cheltenham last year..Some of willies horses were wrong going into the festival.. HURRICANE FLYS very impressive win in dire ground at Leopardstown might have left it's mark who knows ?? he never travelled in cheltenham or in Punchestown and usually his chief asset is abillity to travel smoothly and jump fluently !!! Hopefully he has a more orthodox prep this term !!! can't wait for SIMONSIG love the horse !!!
That first race tommorow looks a dead match I slightly favour meades but you have to respect HURRICANE RIDGE was a beter horse on the flat and i recall he was a huge talking horse before his debut 2 year old win in Killarney was even touted as A Group horse..amazing how hurdling can sweeten some horses.should be a good race to watch as I said in my preview i think TOP MAN MICHAEL needs to use his undoubted stamina over HURRICANE RIDGE'S more obvious turn of foot !!! Be a good betting race.
Will be interested to see if ground dries out a bit or will it be dead type of ground ???
Fair comments all round !!!! Its a great time of year looking forward...I got destroyed on HURRICANE FLY in Cheltenham last year..Some of willies horses were wrong going into the festival.. HURRICANE FLYS very impressive win in dire ground at Leopard
Its absolutely chucking in down in Listowel at the moment and has been doing so all morning as if it wasn't soft enough.Got to tread carefully today and look for those soft ground horses !!
Its absolutely chucking in down in Listowel at the moment and has been doing so all morning as if it wasn't soft enough.Got to tread carefully today and look for those soft ground horses !!
Simonsig not going over fences......going to go for the champion hurdle.....was talking to winky last night......he told me that nicky told him so over dinner friday night.....winky and nicky go back years....so it isnt the kind of talk that goes on here normally......its not bullsshhiit.....
Simonsig not going over fences......going to go for the champion hurdle.....was talking to winky last night......he told me that nicky told him so over dinner friday night.....winky and nicky go back years....so it isnt the kind of talk that goes on
GOOD INFORMATIVE THREAD AS USUAL SB . HORSE IM KEEN ON IN FIRST SOUTH SOUTH WEST IF NOT TODAY HE WILL DEFF WIN HURDLE
SOUTH SOUTH WEST EW
EARLSON GRAY
AKATARA EW SAVER ROADTOABYFEALE
CAIRDIN NAP SAVER KILDARE BLOWIN CAN WIN BEGINNERS CHASE SOON
MOSSEY JOE NB
KING OF FIRTH
GOOD LUCK PUNTERS
GOOD INFORMATIVE THREAD AS USUAL SB . HORSE IM KEEN ON IN FIRST SOUTH SOUTH WEST IF NOT TODAY HE WILL DEFF WIN HURDLESOUTH SOUTH WEST EW EARLSON GRAYAKATARA EW SAVER ROADTOABYFEALECAIRDIN NAP SAVER KILDARE BLOWIN CAN WIN BEGINNERS CHASE SOON MOSSEY
Obviously testing ground will make Stamina reserves a must so always a danger of a few results.. Despite ground not being ideal RATTAN remains a horse with a lot in hand and this looks a soft touch unless the Dessie Hughes horse is fancied. But the value was snapped up by the cleaners as any 4/7 was taken before the shops opened !!!!! MINELLA FOR VALUE looks value to me at 3/1 I can see Davy Russell going out in front on this and trying to jump and gallop them into the ground..For those of you who watch the Pt to Pt videos watch his Liscaroll victory jumped like a Stag !! SKY PILOT looks the serious threat but ground not ideal (he will handle it but not as well as he does good ground,but looks a surefire maiden hurdle winner over a Trip.. the rain might actually loosen out the Ground !!!
Obviously testing ground will make Stamina reserves a must so always a danger of a few results.. Despite ground not being ideal RATTAN remains a horse with a lot in hand and this looks a soft touch unless the Dessie Hughes horse is fancied. But the v
Nice write up Stamford,we need more of this kind of thing ,last chance saloon for Cairdin over fences for me and I think if he doesn't jump for Andy Mac today I'd see them reverting to the smaller obstacles?
Nice write up Stamford,we need more of this kind of thing ,last chance saloon for Cairdin over fences for me and I think if he doesn't jump for Andy Mac today I'd see them reverting to the smaller obstacles?
With supposedly neither Simonsig or Oscar Whisky going over fences. it certainly changes the shape of Arkle the market.
I assume Rebel Fitz will be given a chance to make up into a grade 1 hurlder, but the novice chase division could be more appealing for them now.
Interesting Bobby.With supposedly neither Simonsig or Oscar Whisky going over fences. it certainly changes the shape of Arkle the market.I assume Rebel Fitz will be given a chance to make up into a grade 1 hurlder, but the novice chase division could
booby serious question for you ,you dont have to answer i'll understand it you dont ..here goes , this winky fellow you're talking about ..is he in his 70s and does he have red hair ...?..
booby serious question for you ,you dont have to answer i'll understand it you dont ..here goes , this winky fellow you're talking about ..is he in his 70s and does he have red hair ...?..