Forums

Irish Sports

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
bleekerstreet
19 May 12 19:15
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Mar 12
| Topic/replies: 9,152 | Blogger: bleekerstreet's blog
Possible 6 to 5-2 Naas, Man Of Erin 14 to 9-2  ,OK Annie Gowran 16lbs drop since winning in August 2011 (12 to 13-2) and the daddy of them all today at Wexford Time To Sell off 47 wins from here to New Ross (6 ep to evens).
Is the handicapper called on to justify his decisions in awarding these ratings ? Or does anyone care ?
Pause Switch to Standard View Irish flat handicaps
Show More
Loading...
Report wildmanfromborneo May 19, 2012 8:58 PM BST
Sharestan in the Lincoln a few in Dundalk [Reginald Roberts],Lansdowne in Cork Legendary Times in Gowran seems the trainers are handicapping them for themselves.
Report Bigwillystyle May 21, 2012 2:13 PM BST
Wildclown Landsdowne was not a well handicapped horse. I backed him a few times and he got his win in cork. Will struggle to win another. The stack horse was a howler on his part and he should have to answer questions on on that one alright.  It's a tough job. There are always going to be horses who are well handicapped. Just hot to find them
Report redbait May 21, 2012 2:34 PM BST
Easy with hindsight, isn't it? Presume the first two posters made fortunes backing these horses that were so clearly thrown in by the handicapper?
Report RoyalAcademy May 21, 2012 3:21 PM BST
I agree with redbait: just take a look at the economics of producing the Stack winner on Saturday.

From my perusal of the pedigree its a Wertheimer family - they who own the modest French conglomerate Chanel - and, at one stage, Time Of My Life's dam - a 2001 Rainbow Quest filly, changed hands for €450,000 and is possibly now owned by Coolmore supremo Eddie Irwin probably in partnership with the main man.

Time Of My Life, by Galileo, went through the ring as a yearling for €150,000 and is most likely a buyback for the connections. He still seems to be an entire (what odds a jumping career in time?) and is now standing a Galileo nomination + depreciation of the mare + rearing costs for two years + his sojourn at Thomastown Castle so probably a few hundred thousand bags of sand (as Steve Palmer might say).

In the real world its impossible to justify this investment to land a bottom-of-the-barrel handicap but it the rarefied atmosphere of Ballydoyle/Coolmore plots and added conspiracy theories it all comes down to pulling the wool over the handicapper's eyes.

How much does anyone think could be laid from seven's down to recoup some of this investment on Saturday?
Report soapp May 21, 2012 6:07 PM BST
It's easy to pick out the succesful ones.

No one mentions Charlie Swan's gamble on Lady Bennett that went astray at Navan yesterday. 14./1 into 5/1
Report by purpose May 21, 2012 6:52 PM BST
No surprise there.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 22, 2012 10:56 AM BST
I can`t speak for Bleekerstreet but the point is the handicapper is lazy and just handicaps by ratings,Royal Academy who is unpaid gives cogent reasons for not rating him 47 he gets it.The horse ran over the wrong distances in his maiden and did not try,the handicapper should have refused to give him a mark and if they complained should reply when you try i will rate him.
Does Redbait seriously believe Time Of My Life tried in his maidens.
Would Redbait have given him a rating of 47.
Report paddywhacker1970 May 22, 2012 11:04 AM BST
My two cents, but based on the form (or lack of it) he showed, he could only have given him a mark of 47. The horse probably was "trying", but just wasn't capable of showing anything over such short trips and probably hadn't had to gun put to his head at home, just like all of Sir Mark Prescott's horses. I agree though, the handicapper should have asked him to run at least once more before giving him a mark and to be fair, he does do it with quite a few horses in Ireland. This one slipped through his net rather carelessly, but as others have said, it wasn't rocket science to work out he was a potential improver over the longer trip and if the money came, it was one you'd want on your side.
Report paddywhacker1970 May 22, 2012 11:07 AM BST
"the point is the handicapper is lazy and just handicaps by ratings".

What do you expect him to rate horses on, what the lads say down the pub? I can see it now, Garry O'Gorman rushes into the Turf Club offices, "lads lads, quick, raise So You Think up to 160, the lads from Ballydoyle just said he beat Excelebration by 25 lengths in a gallop at home!"
Report wildmanfromborneo May 22, 2012 11:21 AM BST
I expect him to do what you just did look at the way he was ridden look at the breeding,look at him running over the wrong distance,Royal Academy and yourself have made a strong case for not rating him.
You keep quoting some statements of mine presumably in derision but each time they backfire as i stand over them indeed am proud of them.
Only a lazy handicapper handicaps by ratings.
Report paddywhacker1970 May 22, 2012 11:25 AM BST
Have a good day, Wildman!

NEVER ARGUE WITH A FOOL

It is best not to argue,
But if you do at all,
Never do so with a fool.
A fool can defeat all.

He does not care for the facts.
He does not know debate.
He’s a stranger to reason.
Logic he can negate.

In the end the fool will win,
His logic is so strong!
Decides what he does not like
And then it must be wrong!

It’s better to keep quiet
When challenged by a fool.
Else, to prove his own wisdom,
He will make you a tool.

It is hence my policy
To not respond to those
Who ask questions not to learn
But to be bellicose.
Report bleekerstreet May 22, 2012 11:37 AM BST
Agree that it is an impossible task to handicap unexposed runners from certain quarters. The handicapper is only human and I would think that not only will the individual horses be considerably hiked in the ratings he will also handicap the said stables in future.
Incidentally that Time To Sell failed to make the Stack Racing Post stable tour probably would have gone off three 'on' at Wexford !
Report wildmanfromborneo May 22, 2012 12:00 PM BST
I used to do my own handicaps,i would first do the literal ratings and then adjust them by trainer ease of victory or whether they were trying,ground for or against same for distance.
Paddywhacker disagree if you like but try to remain civil.
Report paddywhacker1970 May 23, 2012 4:32 PM BST
Alan Sweetman wrote about this issue in the RP today.
Report soapp May 23, 2012 6:09 PM BST
What was the gist of it. That he should have been refused a rating?
Report wildmanfromborneo May 23, 2012 10:05 PM BST
I like Alan Sweetman as a journalist and even though he agrees with me about Time Of My Life not trying his piece is poor.He argues for more powers for the handicapper and more discretion when they already have such powers,his Sideways Glance column betrays a complete lack of betting knowledge.
Time Of My Life was a classic case of not trying from the start and running with the sole purpose of hoodwinking the handicapper.His first run was up the Curragh over a mile in a maiden where he stayed on at the finish of a decent maiden,five days later incredibly brought back in trip to a seven furlong Dundalk maiden with the desired result and then two weeks later to make sure back to Dundalk for a five furlong maiden,is Redbait or Paddywhacker seriously maintaining that was a correct course of action for this horse.
His handicap mark now secured they decide on a mile and a half handicap in Wexford,not a word about the gamble yet but a false gamble is started on Golden Clubs he is backed into 6/4 in the morning for small money,classic diversionery tactics he later drifts to huge odds here,to harden the deception a few bets come from Coolmore for Noahs Webster this leads to the conspiritors getting a lot more on at the morning price and a lot more on at opening show.
They deserve credit for a well organised gamble with some nice false trails but for anyone to think that the genesis of this gamble was not in October but more recent is wrong.
Report paddywhacker1970 May 23, 2012 10:28 PM BST
Wildman,
#1- If you don't like Sweetman's ideas, what would your suggestions be?
#2- Did you back the winner, given you thought it was so obvious what was going on?
Report silvergreaser May 23, 2012 10:37 PM BST
Speaking of Golden Clubs this horse actually finished a length behind Time of My Life in that Curragh maiden and was also dropped dramtically in trip to 5f for his third outing at Dundalk where he finished last of 14, so after 3 deplorable runs similar to Time of My Life the handicapper thought it fit to allot Golden Clubs an initial rating of 59 yet TOML was given a whopping 12lb less, go figure?.
Report paddywhacker1970 May 23, 2012 10:39 PM BST
Come on SG, take off the conspiracy sunglasses, Golden Clubs was clearly handicapped based on his far superior run at Gowran Park.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 23, 2012 10:41 PM BST
The handicapper should have refused to rate him until he tried.
No i didn`t back him because i don`t do the form of every horse and even if i did how would i have been sure that Wexford was going to be a going day.
Can you give me any reason for dropping back a stoutly bred horse who stayed on in his debut race first to seven furlongs and then to five furlongs.
Report paddywhacker1970 May 23, 2012 10:45 PM BST
But isn't that what Sweetman was essentially saying, that they shouldn't have given him a mark?

I actually agree with you, the drop to 5f was the actions of a trainer that knew he was heading for a nice handicap mark and wanted to make sure of it. The handicapper shouldn't have given him a mark and it is a big case of egg on his face.
Report silvergreaser May 23, 2012 10:46 PM BST
Oh and Wildman do you remember not that long ago another of Stacks landed a huge morning gamble after been dropped a whopping 17lb in just 3 short runs?, 10lb was taken off the horses back in one fell swoop, the horse in question Kedleston who followed up with 14lb extra on its back on its next start.

No skullduggery as regards trip this time just unusual leniency from the handicapper.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 23, 2012 10:55 PM BST
Sweetman was calling for more powers for the handicapper when he has them already but it was his Sideways Glance column that disappointed me.
I should have spotted this because of my interest in the Ballydoyle punting and John Magnier,i think this coup was Magnier inspired with green and gold advice.
Report RoyalAcademy May 23, 2012 11:10 PM BST
If the handicapper misses a Galileo horse from a renowned gambling source then he's enjoying too much sherry if he gives him the minimum rating. Any trainer would tell you it would takes losing a leg, a pedigree containing the suffix "IV" and a dole cert to qualify for such a Mark after three runs.

How many owners or trainers could train a galileo like this? It's akin to covering national hunt mares with sadlers wells.
Report alans May 23, 2012 11:20 PM BST
Dear Mr Wildman.
I have never posted on this forum before, though I have occasionally referenced it in my column! Thank you for your kind remarks. I am sorry that you were disappointed by Sideways.
I don't blame you, but perhaps you have read it a bit too literally.

You're a great man for the cryptic clues, as I know from your imaginative quizzes!

So here's a few clues as to what I really think, or know, or perhaps think I know.
The word "apparently" in relation to the "gamble".
The phrase "for some bizarre reason" may also hint at something.
I finished by posing the question: "Who said this game was easy?".  If something is not easy, it might be described as "complex"

Hope this may help to interpret the context of my remarks.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 23, 2012 11:24 PM BST
Point taken and i accept you have constraints on you that i don`t have.
Report alans May 23, 2012 11:44 PM BST
Thank you. I'm not going to make a habit of posting here, but I just thought that this was an instance that deserved a bit of explanation. I choose my words carefully, all the more so when dealing with the so-called "integrity" issues. Sometimes that means my remarks are oblique; nevertheless I try to ensure they are phrased in such a way that readers will form a clear idea of where I stand. When that fails, the fault is mine. Good night!
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR May 23, 2012 11:59 PM BST
The way I read the Sweetman article , he seemed to suggest that the handicapper should be allowed have regard to matters such as pedigree but some people seem not to have noticed that he was not the only well bred Galileo from a big stable running off the minimum mark in that race at Wexford.
Report RoyalAcademy May 24, 2012 12:00 AM BST
It's a a courageous response and fair dues!

I will continue to buy the racing post for Alan Sweetman and Justin o'Hanlon. Johnny ward is a sharp tool and we are lucky to have some great journalists in a world of murdoch, o'brien et al where bookmakers rule.
Report RoyalAcademy May 24, 2012 12:00 AM BST
It's a a courageous response and fair dues!

I will continue to buy the racing post for Alan Sweetman and Justin o'Hanlon. Johnny ward is a sharp tool and we are lucky to have some great journalists in a world of murdoch, o'brien et al where bookmakers rule.
Report Bigwillystyle May 24, 2012 12:20 AM BST
Time of my life was actually given a Mark of 44 but was raised three pounds by the handicapper to allow him enter the race.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 25, 2012 9:40 PM BST
Didn`t go to Tipperary but see the gamble was landed in the handicap.A three year old filly this time but the same modus operandi,three educationals in maidens,handicapper falls for it,land gamble in first handicap.
Report paddywhacker1970 May 28, 2012 9:28 PM BST
A bit late to the party, but the subject was addressed in todays Irish Field blog too. http://www.theirishfield.ie/site/article.php?id=1973&cid=5
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR May 28, 2012 10:59 PM BST
A very discerning blog by a writer who knows his stuff
Report wildmanfromborneo May 28, 2012 11:32 PM BST
Can anyone give me the gist of the article.
Report silvergreaser May 28, 2012 11:41 PM BST
Blake’s Blog: Handicapping Headaches

Is there a problem with the handicapping system in Ireland? It is a subject that always seems to be simmering just below the surface in Irish racing, but when a spectacular gamble is landed by an unexposed horse such as Time Of My Life at Wexford, the subject is thrust into the limelight.

The handicapping system has evolved into its current form over hundreds of years and, most of the time, it works very well. However, no matter how good and/or careful the handicapper is, horses will inevitably get in off marks that underestimate their ability, sometimes markedly so. Whether it is via natural improvement for time, distance or ground, or more human-influenced means, it will happen. It is the nature of the game and it is what makes handicaps what they are.

Of course, no one likes to see a system blip that results in a horse bolting up on its handicap debut after being punted off the boards, but such flamboyantly successful gambles are rare occurrences.

Whilst the perception may be that there is nothing difficult about giving a stoutly-bred colt three quick spins over sprint distances as a juvenile and making hay in handicaps over middle distances as a three-year-old, if it were that simple, every trainer in the country would be landing punts left, right and centre.

The reality is, while plenty will try it on, very few come off and even fewer in the style executed by Time Of My Life. Indeed, it is worth remembering that in last year’s renewal of that same three-year-old handicap at Wexford, Tommy Stack had another horse with a very similar profile called Whatever It Takes who was very heavily backed on his handicap debut, but could only finish third.

As if often the case in the aftermath of a gambled-on winning handicap debutant, there are calls for the handicapper to be more aggressive in exercising his right to deny a horse a mark after three runs if he feels those runs do not reflect the ability of the horse. In the case of Time Of My Life, there is little doubt that this right should have been exercised, given that the drop to five furlongs for the horse's third run was completely in contrast to what the horse's pedigree suggested would suit.

The fact that Time Of My Life opened up at no bigger than 5/1 on the morning of the race at Wexford shows that plenty had identified him as a significant potential improver on his handicap debut and if the betting market is spotting this potential, the handicapper should too.

However, while the handicapper didn’t make use of his right to withhold a mark in this case, it has to be said that he does exercise it quite regularly, usually in the case of horses have “caught the eye” in one of their first three runs. That said, this corner feels that caution needs to be exercised with calls for increased aggressiveness in this regard.

The majority of my working day is spent poring over race replays and studying form. While I take note of dozens of “eye catchers” every week for information's sake, experience has taught me that the vast majority of these tend to be flattered and by and large are not capable of improving significantly on what they have previously shown when ridden more positively at a later date.

If the handicapper was to refuse to give a mark to every horse that wasn’t knocked about yet made some late headway in a maiden, the fear would be that a lot of innocent parties with moderate horses would have the expense and inconvenience of additional runs in maidens imposed on them by such actions.

In many cases, all this would achieve would be the prolonging of the inevitable march towards the early retirement of the horse due to lack of competitiveness, usually involving lower profile trainers and owners that could do without such increased expenditure.

For this corner at least, while there will always be exceptions, the current system generally works well, and indeed, more seems to go on in terms of subtle policing than many realise. While it is unlikely to be officially acknowledged, I see evidence every single week of the handicapper's subtle efforts to keep the playing field as level as he can, given that all the players on the field are not playing the game as straight as others.

Plenty of horses who represent trainers known for gambles on unexposed horses seem to be given what look to be, in my opinion, higher initial marks than may have normally been expected based on what they have shown. Likewise, if a well-backed unexposed horse wins or even just goes close in a handicap, they seem to be punished heavily by their revised rating. While this may or may not be coincidental, for me, this is the best way for a handicapper to operate: come down hard on the minority who look to exploit the system, whilst rewarding honest campaigning with lower initial marks and more generous dropping of marks in the event of underperformance in handicaps.

It should be reiterated that those who “play the game” are in the minority. Whilst Irish racing may not enjoy the rosiest of reputations in terms of integrity on the international scene, largely due to sins committed in years long gone by, I strongly believe that Irish racing is now very solid in this regard.

Excellent prize money, a relatively small fixture list and very strong foreign markets for maiden winners are conducive to honest campaigning and generally, a horse who is considered good enough to go well in a maiden will be campaigned to win a maiden rather than go down the handicap route.

So, rather than fundamentally changing the handicapping system, which would more than likely be to the detriment of many innocent parties, perhaps the best action going forward would be increased scrutiny of those who regularly seek to exploit the handicap system. It far from broken, but improvements to the system should always be pursued.
Report neill d May 29, 2012 12:37 AM BST
Very good article
Report redbait May 30, 2012 9:39 AM BST
Is there any chance of the handicapper coming out and addressing all these questions from the public and the press? The last time I remember him making any sort of comment on his own work was a few years back when he messed up the rating of a French horse in the Lincoln and they had to stick an additional 10 pounds on the horses back after declaration time to account for the error.
Report RoyalAcademy May 30, 2012 11:31 AM BST
imo the fundamental difference between Time Of My Life and virtually all other gambles is the fact that TOMY cost so much and someone wealthy enough was able to decide that landing a Wexford egg & spoon race was where its at. This is the ultimate indulgence.

By comparison, Whatever It Takes, owned by JP, cost just five grand.
Report redbait May 30, 2012 2:28 PM BST
In fairness RA, there have been plenty of expensive horses that have landed gambles at a low level. Wachman alone has had Queenscliff, Aghadoe, Lethal Weapon and Arkadina in the last few years.
Report RoyalAcademy May 30, 2012 2:50 PM BST
Agreed redbait......but in terms of connections you might agree that all the following connections all have something in common-Nagle's Barronstown Stud (Queenscliff), Epona Bloodstock/Brosnan (Aghadoe), Lethal Weapon (JP) and Arkadina (Coolmore)-they are all part of the same punting stable. They are able to put aside expensively-bought stock to land a touch-something that your average trainer cannot do.
Report redbait May 30, 2012 9:22 PM BST
Perhaps it puts the training ability of Wachman into context, as while he is now renowned for pulling off such shrewd touches, perhaps the value should be lessened as he is doing it with such well bred horses?
Report Bassanio May 31, 2012 12:20 AM BST
Dermot Weld is the subject of hero worshipping on an annual basis for handicapping well bred horses to win off very low ratings over in the west at the end of July. He is certainly another that should fall under the increased scrutiny that Kevin Blake refers to.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 31, 2012 9:28 AM BST
It seems Redbait and Paddywhacker have changed tack,the sneering and jeering has been replaced by the grim realisation that the original poster and myself were right although they will never admit it.
Report wildmanfromborneo June 3, 2012 1:08 PM BST
Clarach won his handicap with ridiculous ease yesterday,this was different in that he tried in his three maiden runs despite the rider receiving a ban,the handicapper just let him in too low how he rated him only 64 is a mystery.
To me the handicapper is lazy and a poor race reader and doesn`t go racing enough.
Report paddywhacker1970 June 3, 2012 2:04 PM BST
You must have had your max bet on, Wildman, given that you thought he had made such a massive error?
Report wildmanfromborneo June 3, 2012 2:09 PM BST
I walked into that.
I never bet in Tramore as i think it is dangerous.It is a real horses for courses track and watching them all roll in made me regret that decision.
Report paddywhacker1970 June 3, 2012 2:14 PM BST
The "good-to-firm, soft in places" ground description was enough to put me off getting involved, which I also ended up regreting.
Report wildmanfromborneo June 3, 2012 8:12 PM BST
Charles O`Brien repeats the Possible gamble with the J.P. owned Stocktons Wing in Listowel.The same pattern run in three maidens dropping in trip each time the variation here is don`t try in your first and second handicap, handicapper doesn`t look at the race just presses his trusty button and drops him 7 pound,the same button is used to punish the horses that try in these listed races and in some maidens,poor Knockcroghery the latest victim upped 11 pound for trying.
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR June 3, 2012 10:49 PM BST
Wildman, looking forward to you putting up the next 'rick' before it runs next time !
Report wildmanfromborneo June 4, 2012 10:14 PM BST
I am surprised at Stellar as he is normally sound.
I am not a professional so i don`t do the form of every horse every day but even if i did how would i know it was a going day,Possible tried in his first handicap but Stocktons Wing didn`t got dropped seven pounds for his first two efforts in handicaps.
All i have done is point ye to trends,the same as the thread on Ballydoyle gambles ye have to do some work yourselves.
I can`t right out the dockets for ye.
Report wildmanfromborneo June 7, 2012 1:33 PM BST
Man Of Erin defied his 13 pound rise in the weights at Fairyhouse yesterday,he got the original mark by not trying in three maidens run over distances too far for him,contrast this with the fate of Green Chorus she tries in a Tramore maiden and gets a rise of you guessed it 13 pound without winning.
Thats whats so unfair the people who play the game are penalised,then they wonder why there are few runners in conditions races and few triers in maidens.
The handicapper is not looking at the races,he is lazy and just doing literal ratings sure even Rocketfingers could do that.
Report wildmanfromborneo June 14, 2012 10:29 PM BST
The tried and trusted system worked again tonight with Equity Swap,no try in a few sprint maidens get a ludicrously low mark and then have a go in your first handicap.He missed the break that day in Dundalk and appeared unlucky got raised 3 pound but went in when he appeared an uneasy favourite at Navan.He now gets raised a stone but this did not stop a massive gamble on him at Leopardstown backed from 5/2 to odds on and collected with ease,the trainers are doing the handicapping themselves.You would think the handicapper would know the drill by now especially with the Stack stable.
Report wildmanfromborneo June 23, 2012 12:56 PM BST
For years i did my own handicaps on Irish racing and used to wait patiently for one i had clear but one of my gambling rules was never take a short price in handicaps,that rule seems stupid now.Would it be possible for some of our statiticians to look at the amount of horses successfully carrying penalties the amount of favourites winning these handicaps and compare them with other years,my personal theory is the recession, trainers and owners are struggling and are reverting to gambling to help their finances.
Stocktons Wing who is referred to earlier followed up his Listowel win by carrying a 7 pound penalty in Navan he only won a nose but it was his price that amazed me,7/4 in what looked a competitive handicap.
The unfairness of the system is again illustrated by the treatment of My Girl Anna,she plays the game and tries goes for a listed race and despite losing is upped 11 pound,she just gets five furlongs so is not versatile and will not win of her new mark contrast that with Bubbly Bellini now a winner of 8 races he rises 16 pound for two wins and make no mistake he will go in again.
The Irish flat handicapper is lazy and handicaps by computer not by viewing.
Report az-amour June 23, 2012 6:34 PM BST
The Irish Handicapper had Elwazeer running to an ability of 10lb (yes 10lb) after 3 runs gives him a mark of 47 for his first Handicap - between runs 4 and 5 the horse improved 63lbs - Scrap handicaps for horses rated 0-60 and have Conditions races 0-50 0-55 0-60
Report redbait June 30, 2012 10:33 AM BST
It seems the handicapper does listen after all! See page three of the Irish Field. The handicapper has reiterated that he can and will now use pedigree, running style, rider, amount of pressure applied and range of distances raced over to consider whether or not to issue a mark after a horse has run three times.

The trainer's reaction is priceless: "The Irish Field understands that senior figures within the Irish Racehorse Trainers Association strongly disagree with the new guidelines, and want the Turf Club to find new handicappers if the current ones cannot give a horse a mark after seeing it run three times." Game on!
Report silvergreaser June 30, 2012 10:47 AM BST
The trainer's reaction is priceless: "The Irish Field understands that senior figures within the Irish Racehorse Trainers Association strongly disagree with the new guidelines, and want the Turf Club to find new handicappers if the current ones cannot give a horse a mark after seeing it run three times." Game on!

Guess who'll win this one redbait?, it won't be the handicapper thats for certain, he'll be told very politely and reminded as to where his bread is buttered.
Report neill d June 30, 2012 11:31 AM BST
If they back down on this Silver's point about the regulation of Irish Racing will be proved. This is fundamental.
Report wildmanfromborneo June 30, 2012 12:15 PM BST
I must be missing something,the handicapper has discretion and can refuse to give a mark,there is no need for new rules.I think they are lazy and too close to the trainers and whilst i realise this causes great mirth in the Paddywhacker Redbait houses they are handicapping by ratings which is the lazy idiot way to do it,anyone with a computer could do that.
Handicaps have become a great betting medium this year with horses racking up wins,Bubbly Bellini,Bendzoldan [sorry Redbait]and others,they are all getting in on it now,they have discovered how easy it is to dupe the handicapper,Richard Brabazon at Limerick the usual with his Placere,no try in three maidens a look in a first handicap 6/1 into 9/4 and canters in,even last night Eddie Harty did it with Princeton Plains [Swinias old favourite] although not as blatent 5/1 into 3/1,Tommy Carmody has managed to get Ursa Major so well handicapped that a ten pound penalty couldn`t stop him.
Report bleekerstreet June 30, 2012 1:25 PM BST
"Senior figures within the IRTA strongly disagree with the new guidelines,and want the Turf Club to find new handicappers if the current ones cannot give a mark after seeing it run three times"
A quick switch to Leo Powell's column ,which runs alongside and finishes with the classic " Meanwhile we wait for movement on the legislation for betting and the introduction of a sustainable funding model for Ireland.Our need is becoming crucial daily"
Can senior figures within IRTA, who I am sure would be delighted when proposed funding becomes available not have a long hard look at the damage their attitude is doing to the game.
NB What a debate this would be for RTE racing Ted,Robert and a rep' from the IRTA might even have a punter on too !
Report by purpose July 3, 2012 5:17 PM BST
WMFB give me your read on Hurricane Sky in the 8.30 in Gowran.It would be a help if you could do it before the race if possible.
Report huddys July 3, 2012 8:13 PM BST
what was the top price on hurricane sky earlier
Report wildmanfromborneo July 9, 2012 10:18 PM BST
By Purpose my read after the race is someone nicked the price and were thought a lesson.
Call Me Bubbles is the latest to land monster gamble in a flat handicap and make no mistake everything went against him during the race,he will run up a sequence.This was a bit different in that they ran the legs off him at the end of last year and for that the handicapper dropped him,he got two different marks and Mullins but lads off the scent by withdrawing it because of bad ground,he seems to have overcome that aversion.
Report Bassanio July 9, 2012 10:35 PM BST
That ground was no worse than the soft/yielding by the last.

Certainly not testing ground.
Report kavvie July 10, 2012 11:04 AM BST
call me bubbles by his style of running might struggle to overcome trouble in running in the future?
Report Bassanio July 10, 2012 11:39 AM BST
Was it style of running, misfortune or a very average ride?

I suspect he will get a minimum of 12lb for last night, provided the result is not taken at face value.
Report kavvie July 10, 2012 11:59 AM BST
id prefer a less complicated style of running.it seems to need cover and a late burst..maybe im wrong but thats how it looked last nite?itl hardly get 12lbs?
Report Bassanio July 10, 2012 1:11 PM BST
It certainly won with that in hand anyway. I would be surprised if the handicapper is lenient given that he dropped him so much in the first place.
Report wildmanfromborneo July 10, 2012 1:22 PM BST
Bassanio is right but then he watched the race,my main point on this thread is the handicapper doesn't watch the races,he handicaps solely on ratings.He finds a consistent horse who runs to a steady rating puts the result into his computer and comes up with a rating on each horse that is not based on sight,ease of victory in running difficulties are not factored in,however the fact he dropped him might well make him put him back to his original mark.
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR July 10, 2012 1:56 PM BST
You are an aftertiming genius Wildman ! Twenty minutes after the revised ratings are published online , you offer the suggestion that Call Me Bubbles might be put back to his original mark and voila he has . Raised 11 lbs with 8lbs for the unlucky runnerup with only 4 lengths back to the placed horses does not however fit in with your theory about the handicapper not watching races does it ? I see you were asked to offer an opinion on a handicap special last week before the race and declined the opportunity . It really is not difficult to concoct a conspiracy theory after a handicap as to why any horse has won but you have converted this into an art form . Some people might think you are smart but you look like a fraud to me !
Report wildmanfromborneo July 10, 2012 3:57 PM BST
STELLAR it is fairly obvious to me you are either the handicapper or someone in authority in Irish racing,hence the anger,your use of vitriol is not normally your style.
The bit about me being an aftertiming genius is not true because i didn`t see the revised ratings,not that it matters.
How can it be fraudulent to offer an opinion,i am not being paid,disagree if you like but calling names doesn`t help your argument.
No one can deny a feature of this flat season has been the amount of gambles landed in handicaps,the handicapper is a paid employee who races for free yet doesn`t bother his barney to attend lots of meetings.
My point about penalising horses that are trying has not been addressed,the Prescott system of running horses rapidly in maidens over the wrong trip was used by Time Of My Life,Man Of Erin and Possible yet the handicapper seems blissfully unaware.
Finally your assertion that i should put up these horses before hand presumes i know when these beasts are trying and also presumes i have done the form of all horses,i am not a professional.Hurricane Sky the horse by purpose asked about is a good example,i think their price was taken word had leaked out and they taught someone a harsh lesson.
Report redbait July 10, 2012 4:16 PM BST
Horse racing is the easiest game of them all, with the benefit of hindsight.
Report wildmanfromborneo July 10, 2012 4:33 PM BST
Redbait do you think the flat handicapper is doing a good job?
Do you think he should go racing more often?
Do you think he should spot the horses running in quick succession in maidens over the wrong trip?
Have you ever seen a flat season with so many gambles being landed in handicaps?
Getting horses ready for a gamble in a handicap is a skill, one that Kevin Bell was famous for, but this year nearly all the stables have got in on the act with the exception of Aidan O`Brien who despite being the best trainer in the world seems incapable of setting one up for a handicap gamble.
Report redbait July 10, 2012 5:05 PM BST
wildman,
What I'm saying is that if we found ourselves in a situation where every handicapping error was evident BEFORE the race, then we would have a major problem. As it is, you have pointed out over a dozen supposed errors AFTER the event, and not a single one before it. Just because a horse improves, it doesn't mean the handicapper made a mistake. Horses naturally improve all the time, but conspiracy theorists like to try and make out that it was all a glorious plan from the outset, which is rarely the case.
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR July 10, 2012 6:43 PM BST
Fair enough Wildman if you say you didnt see the revised rating, sorry for the 'vitriol' (as you put it) in that case which is unwarranted. The rest of my argument I am glad to see Redbait agrees with me .What we can agree is on is your theory about Hurricane Sky which looks definitely plausible in the light of the peculiar ride the horse got.
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR July 10, 2012 6:49 PM BST
Another thing , you are mistaken about the handicapper not going racing ,if you check the racecard and the listing of officials you will see that there is a handicapper present at every meeting.
Report wildmanfromborneo July 10, 2012 11:37 PM BST
Thanks for the politeness of your reply STELLAR,maybe its just me but i have never seen a season like it,i had a rule for years never take a short price in a handicap yet this year they seem to be winning on a regular basis.
I respect Redbaits opinion so am disappointed he didn`t answer the questions i posed,i also take his point that horses improve and come to hand but the three horses i mentioned were definitely plot horses.
Time Of My Life,Man Of Erin and Possible all run over wrong trip in maidens with the obvious intention of fooling the handicapper and you can add Stocktons Wing to the list.
Report Rocketfingers July 10, 2012 11:43 PM BST
Wildman you seriously can't blame someone for trying to get the best handicap mark possible for their horse, it actually makes sense and it's not cheating either it's playing the game just.
Report wildmanfromborneo July 10, 2012 11:46 PM BST
I am blaming the handicapper for being duped,horses are supposed to run on their merits all the time.
Report Rocketfingers July 10, 2012 11:51 PM BST
Yes of course they are Wink and you should say grace before meals before you eat your dinner !
Report wildmanfromborneo July 18, 2012 2:55 PM BST
Happy Anniversary and Beach Of Falesa running up sequences but this is different as they ran on their merits and are just improving fillies.
Report wildmanfromborneo August 3, 2012 2:25 PM BST
The handicapper should be embarrassed by the 5.30 race in Galway yesterday,two horses fight out the finish the rest nowhere.Call Me Bubbles upped 13 pound yet still thrown in,Inis Meain upped 23 pound and still well ahead of the handicapper how wrong was he with their original marks,also what chance had the other 12 runners.
Report kavvie August 3, 2012 2:48 PM BST
he can only go on what is put in front of him and what he sees.if he thought every horse was a plot he would have no chance..
Report wildmanfromborneo August 3, 2012 3:18 PM BST
He got a chance to reassess the two of them and completely underestimated them,anyone who watched Call Me Bubbles race in Roscommon knew everything went against him yet he still won and the horse he beat Beach Of Falesa went on to win twice.If it wasn't for the worry about the tongue strap he would have started odds on and if Inis Meain was a non runner he would have emulated him by starting 2/5 and hacking up.
Report kavvie August 3, 2012 3:24 PM BST
he won by a short head in rosc and got raised 13lbs..?them are the facts.he won yest by a hard fought 1 1/2 lengths..at what stage will he be fairly handicapped in your opinion.one hacked up a few weeks back  pulling a train.and got 13 lbs.it failed to win next time at 4/11.handicapers are funny..
Report wildmanfromborneo August 3, 2012 3:48 PM BST
I accept there are constraints on the handicapper but if it was me I would handicap out any horse I thought had codded me.They ran the legs off him in a short space of time to dupe the handicapper,I noted one of his runs behind Takar,they then ran him in a handicap where he finished fourth and the handicapper seems to have dropped him 9 pound for that,why?
They then arrive at Roscommon and despite everything going against them they still landed a nice gamble,they knew they had loads in hand,the handicapper had a chance to rectify his earlier error but choose not to.The second horse Inis Meain had similarly made a fool of the handicapper more through the genius of a neighbour of mine Denis Hogan than villainy but again he had a chance to rectify the situation but failed.
It's not easy but an old adage springs to mind if in doubt handicap them out.
Report kavvie August 3, 2012 9:26 PM BST
inis mean aid the form some compliment this eve...itl be intretin to see what call me bubbles gets!!
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com