Irish flat handicaps

Wildclown Landsdowne was not a well handicapped horse. I backed him a few times and he got his win in cork. Will struggle to win another. The stack horse was a howler on his part and he should have to answer questions on on that one alright.  It's a tough job. There are always going to be horses who are well handicapped. Just hot to find them

I agree with redbait: just take a look at the economics of producing the Stack winner on Saturday.

From my perusal of the pedigree its a Wertheimer family - they who own the modest French conglomerate Chanel - and, at one stage, Time Of My Life's dam - a 2001 Rainbow Quest filly, changed hands for €450,000 and is possibly now owned by Coolmore supremo Eddie Irwin probably in partnership with the main man.

Time Of My Life, by Galileo, went through the ring as a yearling for €150,000 and is most likely a buyback for the connections. He still seems to be an entire (what odds a jumping career in time?) and is now standing a Galileo nomination + depreciation of the mare + rearing costs for two years + his sojourn at Thomastown Castle so probably a few hundred thousand bags of sand (as Steve Palmer might say).

In the real world its impossible to justify this investment to land a bottom-of-the-barrel handicap but it the rarefied atmosphere of Ballydoyle/Coolmore plots and added conspiracy theories it all comes down to pulling the wool over the handicapper's eyes.

How much does anyone think could be laid from seven's down to recoup some of this investment on Saturday?

No surprise there.

My two cents, but based on the form (or lack of it) he showed, he could only have given him a mark of 47. The horse probably was "trying", but just wasn't capable of showing anything over such short trips and probably hadn't had to gun put to his head at home, just like all of Sir Mark Prescott's horses. I agree though, the handicapper should have asked him to run at least once more before giving him a mark and to be fair, he does do it with quite a few horses in Ireland. This one slipped through his net rather carelessly, but as others have said, it wasn't rocket science to work out he was a potential improver over the longer trip and if the money came, it was one you'd want on your side.

I expect him to do what you just did look at the way he was ridden look at the breeding,look at him running over the wrong distance,Royal Academy and yourself have made a strong case for not rating him.
You keep quoting some statements of mine presumably in derision but each time they backfire as i stand over them indeed am proud of them.
Only a lazy handicapper handicaps by ratings.

Agree that it is an impossible task to handicap unexposed runners from certain quarters. The handicapper is only human and I would think that not only will the individual horses be considerably hiked in the ratings he will also handicap the said stables in future.
Incidentally that Time To Sell failed to make the Stack Racing Post stable tour probably would have gone off three 'on' at Wexford !

Alan Sweetman wrote about this issue in the RP today.

I like Alan Sweetman as a journalist and even though he agrees with me about Time Of My Life not trying his piece is poor.He argues for more powers for the handicapper and more discretion when they already have such powers,his Sideways Glance column betrays a complete lack of betting knowledge.
Time Of My Life was a classic case of not trying from the start and running with the sole purpose of hoodwinking the handicapper.His first run was up the Curragh over a mile in a maiden where he stayed on at the finish of a decent maiden,five days later incredibly brought back in trip to a seven furlong Dundalk maiden with the desired result and then two weeks later to make sure back to Dundalk for a five furlong maiden,is Redbait or Paddywhacker seriously maintaining that was a correct course of action for this horse.
His handicap mark now secured they decide on a mile and a half handicap in Wexford,not a word about the gamble yet but a false gamble is started on Golden Clubs he is backed into 6/4 in the morning for small money,classic diversionery tactics he later drifts to huge odds here,to harden the deception a few bets come from Coolmore for Noahs Webster this leads to the conspiritors getting a lot more on at the morning price and a lot more on at opening show.
They deserve credit for a well organised gamble with some nice false trails but for anyone to think that the genesis of this gamble was not in October but more recent is wrong.

Speaking of Golden Clubs this horse actually finished a length behind Time of My Life in that Curragh maiden and was also dropped dramtically in trip to 5f for his third outing at Dundalk where he finished last of 14, so after 3 deplorable runs similar to Time of My Life the handicapper thought it fit to allot Golden Clubs an initial rating of 59 yet TOML was given a whopping 12lb less, go figure?.

The handicapper should have refused to rate him until he tried.
No i didn`t back him because i don`t do the form of every horse and even if i did how would i have been sure that Wexford was going to be a going day.
Can you give me any reason for dropping back a stoutly bred horse who stayed on in his debut race first to seven furlongs and then to five furlongs.

Oh and Wildman do you remember not that long ago another of Stacks landed a huge morning gamble after been dropped a whopping 17lb in just 3 short runs?, 10lb was taken off the horses back in one fell swoop, the horse in question Kedleston who followed up with 14lb extra on its back on its next start.

No skullduggery as regards trip this time just unusual leniency from the handicapper.

If the handicapper misses a Galileo horse from a renowned gambling source then he's enjoying too much sherry if he gives him the minimum rating. Any trainer would tell you it would takes losing a leg, a pedigree containing the suffix "IV" and a dole cert to qualify for such a Mark after three runs.

How many owners or trainers could train a galileo like this? It's akin to covering national hunt mares with sadlers wells.

Point taken and i accept you have constraints on you that i don`t have.

The way I read the Sweetman article , he seemed to suggest that the handicapper should be allowed have regard to matters such as pedigree but some people seem not to have noticed that he was not the only well bred Galileo from a big stable running off the minimum mark in that race at Wexford.

It's a a courageous response and fair dues!

I will continue to buy the racing post for Alan Sweetman and Justin o'Hanlon. Johnny ward is a sharp tool and we are lucky to have some great journalists in a world of murdoch, o'brien et al where bookmakers rule.

Didn`t go to Tipperary but see the gamble was landed in the handicap.A three year old filly this time but the same modus operandi,three educationals in maidens,handicapper falls for it,land gamble in first handicap.

A very discerning blog by a writer who knows his stuff

Blake’s Blog: Handicapping Headaches

Is there a problem with the handicapping system in Ireland? It is a subject that always seems to be simmering just below the surface in Irish racing, but when a spectacular gamble is landed by an unexposed horse such as Time Of My Life at Wexford, the subject is thrust into the limelight.

The handicapping system has evolved into its current form over hundreds of years and, most of the time, it works very well. However, no matter how good and/or careful the handicapper is, horses will inevitably get in off marks that underestimate their ability, sometimes markedly so. Whether it is via natural improvement for time, distance or ground, or more human-influenced means, it will happen. It is the nature of the game and it is what makes handicaps what they are.

Of course, no one likes to see a system blip that results in a horse bolting up on its handicap debut after being punted off the boards, but such flamboyantly successful gambles are rare occurrences.

Whilst the perception may be that there is nothing difficult about giving a stoutly-bred colt three quick spins over sprint distances as a juvenile and making hay in handicaps over middle distances as a three-year-old, if it were that simple, every trainer in the country would be landing punts left, right and centre.

The reality is, while plenty will try it on, very few come off and even fewer in the style executed by Time Of My Life. Indeed, it is worth remembering that in last year’s renewal of that same three-year-old handicap at Wexford, Tommy Stack had another horse with a very similar profile called Whatever It Takes who was very heavily backed on his handicap debut, but could only finish third.

As if often the case in the aftermath of a gambled-on winning handicap debutant, there are calls for the handicapper to be more aggressive in exercising his right to deny a horse a mark after three runs if he feels those runs do not reflect the ability of the horse. In the case of Time Of My Life, there is little doubt that this right should have been exercised, given that the drop to five furlongs for the horse's third run was completely in contrast to what the horse's pedigree suggested would suit.

The fact that Time Of My Life opened up at no bigger than 5/1 on the morning of the race at Wexford shows that plenty had identified him as a significant potential improver on his handicap debut and if the betting market is spotting this potential, the handicapper should too.

However, while the handicapper didn’t make use of his right to withhold a mark in this case, it has to be said that he does exercise it quite regularly, usually in the case of horses have “caught the eye” in one of their first three runs. That said, this corner feels that caution needs to be exercised with calls for increased aggressiveness in this regard.

The majority of my working day is spent poring over race replays and studying form. While I take note of dozens of “eye catchers” every week for information's sake, experience has taught me that the vast majority of these tend to be flattered and by and large are not capable of improving significantly on what they have previously shown when ridden more positively at a later date.

If the handicapper was to refuse to give a mark to every horse that wasn’t knocked about yet made some late headway in a maiden, the fear would be that a lot of innocent parties with moderate horses would have the expense and inconvenience of additional runs in maidens imposed on them by such actions.

In many cases, all this would achieve would be the prolonging of the inevitable march towards the early retirement of the horse due to lack of competitiveness, usually involving lower profile trainers and owners that could do without such increased expenditure.

For this corner at least, while there will always be exceptions, the current system generally works well, and indeed, more seems to go on in terms of subtle policing than many realise. While it is unlikely to be officially acknowledged, I see evidence every single week of the handicapper's subtle efforts to keep the playing field as level as he can, given that all the players on the field are not playing the game as straight as others.

Plenty of horses who represent trainers known for gambles on unexposed horses seem to be given what look to be, in my opinion, higher initial marks than may have normally been expected based on what they have shown. Likewise, if a well-backed unexposed horse wins or even just goes close in a handicap, they seem to be punished heavily by their revised rating. While this may or may not be coincidental, for me, this is the best way for a handicapper to operate: come down hard on the minority who look to exploit the system, whilst rewarding honest campaigning with lower initial marks and more generous dropping of marks in the event of underperformance in handicaps.

It should be reiterated that those who “play the game” are in the minority. Whilst Irish racing may not enjoy the rosiest of reputations in terms of integrity on the international scene, largely due to sins committed in years long gone by, I strongly believe that Irish racing is now very solid in this regard.

Excellent prize money, a relatively small fixture list and very strong foreign markets for maiden winners are conducive to honest campaigning and generally, a horse who is considered good enough to go well in a maiden will be campaigned to win a maiden rather than go down the handicap route.

So, rather than fundamentally changing the handicapping system, which would more than likely be to the detriment of many innocent parties, perhaps the best action going forward would be increased scrutiny of those who regularly seek to exploit the handicap system. It far from broken, but improvements to the system should always be pursued.

Is there any chance of the handicapper coming out and addressing all these questions from the public and the press? The last time I remember him making any sort of comment on his own work was a few years back when he messed up the rating of a French horse in the Lincoln and they had to stick an additional 10 pounds on the horses back after declaration time to account for the error.