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In fairness RA, there have been plenty of expensive horses that have landed gambles at a low level. Wachman alone has had Queenscliff, Aghadoe, Lethal Weapon and Arkadina in the last few years.
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Agreed redbait......but in terms of connections you might agree that all the following connections all have something in common-Nagle's Barronstown Stud (Queenscliff), Epona Bloodstock/Brosnan (Aghadoe), Lethal Weapon (JP) and Arkadina (Coolmore)-they are all part of the same punting stable. They are able to put aside expensively-bought stock to land a touch-something that your average trainer cannot do.
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Perhaps it puts the training ability of Wachman into context, as while he is now renowned for pulling off such shrewd touches, perhaps the value should be lessened as he is doing it with such well bred horses?
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Dermot Weld is the subject of hero worshipping on an annual basis for handicapping well bred horses to win off very low ratings over in the west at the end of July. He is certainly another that should fall under the increased scrutiny that Kevin Blake refers to.
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It seems Redbait and Paddywhacker have changed tack,the sneering and jeering has been replaced by the grim realisation that the original poster and myself were right although they will never admit it.
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Clarach won his handicap with ridiculous ease yesterday,this was different in that he tried in his three maiden runs despite the rider receiving a ban,the handicapper just let him in too low how he rated him only 64 is a mystery.
To me the handicapper is lazy and a poor race reader and doesn`t go racing enough. |
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You must have had your max bet on, Wildman, given that you thought he had made such a massive error?
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I walked into that.
I never bet in Tramore as i think it is dangerous.It is a real horses for courses track and watching them all roll in made me regret that decision. |
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The "good-to-firm, soft in places" ground description was enough to put me off getting involved, which I also ended up regreting.
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Charles O`Brien repeats the Possible gamble with the J.P. owned Stocktons Wing in Listowel.The same pattern run in three maidens dropping in trip each time the variation here is don`t try in your first and second handicap, handicapper doesn`t look at the race just presses his trusty button and drops him 7 pound,the same button is used to punish the horses that try in these listed races and in some maidens,poor Knockcroghery the latest victim upped 11 pound for trying.
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Wildman, looking forward to you putting up the next 'rick' before it runs next time !
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I am surprised at Stellar as he is normally sound.
I am not a professional so i don`t do the form of every horse every day but even if i did how would i know it was a going day,Possible tried in his first handicap but Stocktons Wing didn`t got dropped seven pounds for his first two efforts in handicaps. All i have done is point ye to trends,the same as the thread on Ballydoyle gambles ye have to do some work yourselves. I can`t right out the dockets for ye. |
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Man Of Erin defied his 13 pound rise in the weights at Fairyhouse yesterday,he got the original mark by not trying in three maidens run over distances too far for him,contrast this with the fate of Green Chorus she tries in a Tramore maiden and gets a rise of you guessed it 13 pound without winning.
Thats whats so unfair the people who play the game are penalised,then they wonder why there are few runners in conditions races and few triers in maidens. The handicapper is not looking at the races,he is lazy and just doing literal ratings sure even Rocketfingers could do that. |
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The tried and trusted system worked again tonight with Equity Swap,no try in a few sprint maidens get a ludicrously low mark and then have a go in your first handicap.He missed the break that day in Dundalk and appeared unlucky got raised 3 pound but went in when he appeared an uneasy favourite at Navan.He now gets raised a stone but this did not stop a massive gamble on him at Leopardstown backed from 5/2 to odds on and collected with ease,the trainers are doing the handicapping themselves.You would think the handicapper would know the drill by now especially with the Stack stable.
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For years i did my own handicaps on Irish racing and used to wait patiently for one i had clear but one of my gambling rules was never take a short price in handicaps,that rule seems stupid now.Would it be possible for some of our statiticians to look at the amount of horses successfully carrying penalties the amount of favourites winning these handicaps and compare them with other years,my personal theory is the recession, trainers and owners are struggling and are reverting to gambling to help their finances.
Stocktons Wing who is referred to earlier followed up his Listowel win by carrying a 7 pound penalty in Navan he only won a nose but it was his price that amazed me,7/4 in what looked a competitive handicap. The unfairness of the system is again illustrated by the treatment of My Girl Anna,she plays the game and tries goes for a listed race and despite losing is upped 11 pound,she just gets five furlongs so is not versatile and will not win of her new mark contrast that with Bubbly Bellini now a winner of 8 races he rises 16 pound for two wins and make no mistake he will go in again. The Irish flat handicapper is lazy and handicaps by computer not by viewing. |
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The Irish Handicapper had Elwazeer running to an ability of 10lb (yes 10lb) after 3 runs gives him a mark of 47 for his first Handicap - between runs 4 and 5 the horse improved 63lbs - Scrap handicaps for horses rated 0-60 and have Conditions races 0-50 0-55 0-60
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It seems the handicapper does listen after all! See page three of the Irish Field. The handicapper has reiterated that he can and will now use pedigree, running style, rider, amount of pressure applied and range of distances raced over to consider whether or not to issue a mark after a horse has run three times.
The trainer's reaction is priceless: "The Irish Field understands that senior figures within the Irish Racehorse Trainers Association strongly disagree with the new guidelines, and want the Turf Club to find new handicappers if the current ones cannot give a horse a mark after seeing it run three times." Game on! |
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The trainer's reaction is priceless: "The Irish Field understands that senior figures within the Irish Racehorse Trainers Association strongly disagree with the new guidelines, and want the Turf Club to find new handicappers if the current ones cannot give a horse a mark after seeing it run three times." Game on!
Guess who'll win this one redbait?, it won't be the handicapper thats for certain, he'll be told very politely and reminded as to where his bread is buttered. |
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If they back down on this Silver's point about the regulation of Irish Racing will be proved. This is fundamental.
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I must be missing something,the handicapper has discretion and can refuse to give a mark,there is no need for new rules.I think they are lazy and too close to the trainers and whilst i realise this causes great mirth in the Paddywhacker Redbait houses they are handicapping by ratings which is the lazy idiot way to do it,anyone with a computer could do that.
Handicaps have become a great betting medium this year with horses racking up wins,Bubbly Bellini,Bendzoldan [sorry Redbait]and others,they are all getting in on it now,they have discovered how easy it is to dupe the handicapper,Richard Brabazon at Limerick the usual with his Placere,no try in three maidens a look in a first handicap 6/1 into 9/4 and canters in,even last night Eddie Harty did it with Princeton Plains [Swinias old favourite] although not as blatent 5/1 into 3/1,Tommy Carmody has managed to get Ursa Major so well handicapped that a ten pound penalty couldn`t stop him. |
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"Senior figures within the IRTA strongly disagree with the new guidelines,and want the Turf Club to find new handicappers if the current ones cannot give a mark after seeing it run three times"
A quick switch to Leo Powell's column ,which runs alongside and finishes with the classic " Meanwhile we wait for movement on the legislation for betting and the introduction of a sustainable funding model for Ireland.Our need is becoming crucial daily" Can senior figures within IRTA, who I am sure would be delighted when proposed funding becomes available not have a long hard look at the damage their attitude is doing to the game. NB What a debate this would be for RTE racing Ted,Robert and a rep' from the IRTA might even have a punter on too ! |
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WMFB give me your read on Hurricane Sky in the 8.30 in Gowran.It would be a help if you could do it before the race if possible.
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what was the top price on hurricane sky earlier
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By Purpose my read after the race is someone nicked the price and were thought a lesson.
Call Me Bubbles is the latest to land monster gamble in a flat handicap and make no mistake everything went against him during the race,he will run up a sequence.This was a bit different in that they ran the legs off him at the end of last year and for that the handicapper dropped him,he got two different marks and Mullins but lads off the scent by withdrawing it because of bad ground,he seems to have overcome that aversion. |
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That ground was no worse than the soft/yielding by the last.
Certainly not testing ground. |
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call me bubbles by his style of running might struggle to overcome trouble in running in the future?
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Was it style of running, misfortune or a very average ride?
I suspect he will get a minimum of 12lb for last night, provided the result is not taken at face value. |
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id prefer a less complicated style of running.it seems to need cover and a late burst..maybe im wrong but thats how it looked last nite?itl hardly get 12lbs?
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It certainly won with that in hand anyway. I would be surprised if the handicapper is lenient given that he dropped him so much in the first place.
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Bassanio is right but then he watched the race,my main point on this thread is the handicapper doesn't watch the races,he handicaps solely on ratings.He finds a consistent horse who runs to a steady rating puts the result into his computer and comes up with a rating on each horse that is not based on sight,ease of victory in running difficulties are not factored in,however the fact he dropped him might well make him put him back to his original mark.
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You are an aftertiming genius Wildman ! Twenty minutes after the revised ratings are published online , you offer the suggestion that Call Me Bubbles might be put back to his original mark and voila he has . Raised 11 lbs with 8lbs for the unlucky runnerup with only 4 lengths back to the placed horses does not however fit in with your theory about the handicapper not watching races does it ? I see you were asked to offer an opinion on a handicap special last week before the race and declined the opportunity . It really is not difficult to concoct a conspiracy theory after a handicap as to why any horse has won but you have converted this into an art form . Some people might think you are smart but you look like a fraud to me !
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STELLAR it is fairly obvious to me you are either the handicapper or someone in authority in Irish racing,hence the anger,your use of vitriol is not normally your style.
The bit about me being an aftertiming genius is not true because i didn`t see the revised ratings,not that it matters. How can it be fraudulent to offer an opinion,i am not being paid,disagree if you like but calling names doesn`t help your argument. No one can deny a feature of this flat season has been the amount of gambles landed in handicaps,the handicapper is a paid employee who races for free yet doesn`t bother his barney to attend lots of meetings. My point about penalising horses that are trying has not been addressed,the Prescott system of running horses rapidly in maidens over the wrong trip was used by Time Of My Life,Man Of Erin and Possible yet the handicapper seems blissfully unaware. Finally your assertion that i should put up these horses before hand presumes i know when these beasts are trying and also presumes i have done the form of all horses,i am not a professional.Hurricane Sky the horse by purpose asked about is a good example,i think their price was taken word had leaked out and they taught someone a harsh lesson. |
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Horse racing is the easiest game of them all, with the benefit of hindsight.
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Redbait do you think the flat handicapper is doing a good job?
Do you think he should go racing more often? Do you think he should spot the horses running in quick succession in maidens over the wrong trip? Have you ever seen a flat season with so many gambles being landed in handicaps? Getting horses ready for a gamble in a handicap is a skill, one that Kevin Bell was famous for, but this year nearly all the stables have got in on the act with the exception of Aidan O`Brien who despite being the best trainer in the world seems incapable of setting one up for a handicap gamble. |
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wildman,
What I'm saying is that if we found ourselves in a situation where every handicapping error was evident BEFORE the race, then we would have a major problem. As it is, you have pointed out over a dozen supposed errors AFTER the event, and not a single one before it. Just because a horse improves, it doesn't mean the handicapper made a mistake. Horses naturally improve all the time, but conspiracy theorists like to try and make out that it was all a glorious plan from the outset, which is rarely the case. |
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Fair enough Wildman if you say you didnt see the revised rating, sorry for the 'vitriol' (as you put it) in that case which is unwarranted. The rest of my argument I am glad to see Redbait agrees with me .What we can agree is on is your theory about Hurricane Sky which looks definitely plausible in the light of the peculiar ride the horse got.
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Another thing , you are mistaken about the handicapper not going racing ,if you check the racecard and the listing of officials you will see that there is a handicapper present at every meeting.
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Thanks for the politeness of your reply STELLAR,maybe its just me but i have never seen a season like it,i had a rule for years never take a short price in a handicap yet this year they seem to be winning on a regular basis.
I respect Redbaits opinion so am disappointed he didn`t answer the questions i posed,i also take his point that horses improve and come to hand but the three horses i mentioned were definitely plot horses. Time Of My Life,Man Of Erin and Possible all run over wrong trip in maidens with the obvious intention of fooling the handicapper and you can add Stocktons Wing to the list. |
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Wildman you seriously can't blame someone for trying to get the best handicap mark possible for their horse, it actually makes sense and it's not cheating either it's playing the game just.
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I am blaming the handicapper for being duped,horses are supposed to run on their merits all the time.
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