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Cheltenham Previews (((( REPORTS ))))
Cheltenham Previews (((( REPORTS ))))
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Cheers for that Jumper.
Preview coming up now on RUK |
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Many thanks to everyone who took the time and effort to post these on here.
It is much appreciated. |
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Would like to echo what Monte and others have posted on here of course these are a good help when trying to sort out the conundrum that is Cheltenham
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I often do lucky 15's coming up to the festival mostly on the chamionship and novice races, maybe 1 on handicaps when the weights come out. This year I backed horses based on this thread and the 1 on cheltenham forum based on trainers comments regards targets and confidence.
The last post I read was child of mine's on the 29th before I put on the bet( I checked, That was the day the bet was made) Toner D'oudairies at 14 ... now 10 Crack away jack at 16 ... now 10 shadow catcher 16 ... now 12 master of arts 25 ... now 16 all E/W some people might think the preview nights are rubbish and thats fine, their own opinion. but personally I think you can use the information given to your advantage most of the time and hopefully a lot of people can profit from them |
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OK I won't make it to any Previews this year so I have summarised each race from the previews already posted up on here
Each day to be posted separately |
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TUESDAY
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE Paul Nicholls: We will possibly run Prospect Wells. He has had a breathing op since his last run and is a big price at 33/1 on his best form. Very classy at home, and goes there with a decent chance, allowing for poor effort last time. Prospect Wells runs. Ran well early in season just getting beat by Steps To Freedom. Hinterland could run. Philip Hobbs: Colour Squadron is fine after his fall but that was not the ideal prep. He has schooled well since so no reason why he shouldn’t perform on the day. He has not had the strongly run race he needs yet. Colour Sergeant was fine after his recent fall, and should go very well. Paul Jones (Cheltenham, Festival Guide): Simonsig is the most likely winner if he runs here but I fear they will run him in the wrong race. Looks like he is crying out for a fast-run 2m given his cruising speed. In his possible absence then Midnight Game appeals most as he is coming right at the right time, is the Mullins number one and expected to improve again for better ground than he has faced in Ireland. Paul Jones thinks Simonsig will run Neptune, but if running in the Supreme would win. Steps to Freedom has the best form, whilst Midnight Game is improving Andrew King (Racing Post): I think Darlan will run and has a major chance as long as his confidence has not been affected by his bad fall last time. I’ve also a sneaky feeling Cinders And Ashes will run very well. Paul Binfield (Paddy Power rep): Galileo’s Choice was the best of the Irish Charlie Longsdon: We will run Vulcanite and Hazy Tom. My horses are not right at the moment so you can see from both of their last runs. I was disappointed with Vulcanite at Newbury as he is 7lbs-14lbs better than that. He wants a strong pace and leading last time was hardly ideal. The owner wanted to take him to a valuable staying prize in Dubai instead but thankfully David Redvers has managed to change his mind which is good for me as he runs here. I hope you will see a far improved performance off a strong pace. I think we will reverse Kempton form with Tetlami. Hazy Tom wasn’t right at Ascot so forget that. Dickie Johnson thinks a fast-run 2m will really suit him when he is right so we have taken him out of the Neptune. Andrew Tinkler: Simonsig schooled very slicky this morning and has the pace to run in either the Supreme or Neptune. They go very, very quick in the Supreme so I would like to see him run here as it would really suit him. He is a real two-miler that would see it out very well. I schooled Darlan today and he went very well and showed no ill effects of his bad fall. Tetlami is by Daylami and has the traits of many offspring of his sire in that he only shows you half his hand as he does what you ask and no more. He has ten times more ability that he has shown. Kevan Minter (The Colonel): I always find this a hard race to predict. I know some shrewd judges are on Steps To Freedom at 14s but it worries me that he will not have run since November. Willie Mullins (phone): Very sweet on Midnight Game, but stressed good ground is essential,and we havent seen the best of him by a long way, the faster the ground the better. Sous Le Cieux wants a trip if the ground dries. Midnight Game goes for the Supreme Novices. Needs good ground. Expecting a big run. Ruby Walsh: likes Darlan, Noel Meade: Preferred Galileo’s Choice but did say that Dylan Ross would be going and will be better on good ground although he only gave it an each way chance. Nina Carberry: Also went with Steps to Freedom, she wouldn’t rule out Dylan Ross either. Patrick Mullins: didn’t think his father’s Midnight Game would be the obvious one here, and we should take a look at the bigger priced Allure of Illusion. John Francome: Tetlami Jessica Harrington: Confident of Steps of freedoms chances. Steps to Freedom goes straight to Cheltenham. Decided not to do a prep run at Dundalk. The faster the ground, the better. A great bet! Tom Segal: Midnight game Davy Russell: Trifolium "Best novice in Ireland ". Midnight Game’s form is not good enough. Trifolium has more solid form but better ground may not suit. Henry de Bromhead: Prospect Wells ew Mike Cattermole: Cinders and Ashes Jim McGrath: Gallileo's choice David Pipe: Catch Tammy a lot to do, Close House lightly raced probs run in this or Neptune. Neptune more likely. Tanya Stephenson: Irish dominated race. Darlan had a heavy fall. She likes Cinders & Ashes. Feels Darlan would have won the Betfair. Joe Tizzard: Loves Cinders & Ashes could be a Haydock bog horse but D McCain feels he's not. Could shake them up. Paddy Power: Loads of money for Darlan. Likes Cash & Go who should be running at Leopardstown for a bit of a school round. Scoped badly last time. Money for Darlan, but fancies Steps to Freedom. Ruby Walsh: He has no stand out horse in the first, each way at best. Darlan is his preferred ride. Sous Le Cieux needs a longer race. Barry Geraghty: 2m4f would be better for Simonsig. Darlan was impressive in last gallop. Donn McClean: Steps to Freedom. Tony Martin: not impressed with Steps to Freedom. Highlighted Midnight Game’s chances although his main fancy too was Darlan, Damien McElroy: not impressed with Steps To Freedom. Sweet on Cinders & Ashes and to a lesser extent, Charles Byrnes’ Trifolium. This is so open a race. Kevin O’Ryan: not impressed with Steps To Freedom. Keener on Galileo’s Choice and then Trifolium but said he’s had strong vibes from the Darlan camp and thinks this could now start as low as 3/1-4s favourite on the day. Ted Walsh Jr: gave a mention to Steps to Freedom and Montbazon Walterstown Panel (Damien McElroy, Kevin O’Ryan, Tony Martin, Ted Walsh jr) believed Jessica Harrington’s Steps to Freedom could be better at a flatter Aintree or even Punchestown. ARKLE TROPHY Paul Nicholls: Al Ferof got some good experience against established two-milers at Ascot. I’m hopeful we can outstay Sprinter Sacre who could be a speed horse on flat tracks who is very keen in his races. He got outstayed by Al Ferof in last year’s Supreme and it will be interesting to see if he gets up the hill this time. Paul Nicholls thought Sprinter Sacre was by no means certain to stay as he has done all his top class form on flat tracks. PN-Jokes he has a little plan of running Sanctuaire to go off at a million miles an hour and take on Cue card & SS. Jumping the last in Supreme SS going backwards. Need a horse that stays in Arkle. Has a suspicion Al Ferof wants further but keeps winning over 2 miles & will be a tough race. Thinks SS might not get up the hill and the fact he's been running on flat tracks gives him hope. David Pipe: Sprinter Sacre is a good thing. He can go long and short and will come up the hill okay and have too much pace for his rivals. Stats there to be broken and Sprinter Sacre will break them. Only beaten handicappers but I'm So Lucky was one of them who ran in the Champion Chase last year. Sprinter Sacre beat him very well & will get up the hill. Pretty confident Sprinter Sacre will win. Philip Hobbs: Menorah jumps well for the most part but the most part isn’t good enough and especially in a race like the Arkle. A strong pace will suit him better but I don’t think he can beat Sprinter Sacre but he has a good place chance. Philip Hobbs says Menorah jumps well at home, but does make the odd mistake, which he will need to avoid on the day. Doesn’t think anything can beat Sprinter Sacre Paul Jones: Stats point to Peddlers Cross but in my heart of hearts I think the only thing can stop Sprinter Sacre is him being too brave at a fence. The hill argument is a red herring as he has had a wind op since last year, he has physically improved since last year plus the Arkle is a shorter race than the Supreme and they jump five more obstacles so it’s not quite as all-out a gallop as the Supreme is which means that would be against Al Ferof. Paul Jones says Sprinter Sacre is the one to beat, reminded us the best “hurdler” often wins the Arkle, and that would be Peddlers Cross Andrew King: Sprinter Sacre is my lay of the meeting. He can not win! He is not guaranteed to come up the hill and folded tamely last year in the Supreme. He is up against strong stayers here and four Cheltenham Festival winners and he has yet to win at the course. At around Evens he is too short. Andrew King wanted to oppose Sprinter Sacre big time, doesn’t think Cheltenham will suit, similar to the Supreme last year Charlie Longsdon: Barry Geraghty rode Moscow Flyer and he seems to think that Sprinter Sacre is in a different league to him so I can’t go against him. Flat tracks may suit him better and he has not done it yet at Cheltenham like four of his rivals but, even so. Peddlers Cross to chase him home. Andrew Tinkler: Sptrinter Sacre needs very little introduction now. I made the running on French Opera at Newbury at what I thought was championship pace and he just breezed by me at half-way like I wasn’t even there. He has to work on his own at home as nothing can live with him and we don’t want to break the hearts of horses like Oscar Whisky by working with him. The intention was sit him in behind at Newbury so he can learn but that only lasted about five fences as he just took off past them without even trying. He was a shell of a horse last year which is why he didn’t get up the hill but came back to us looking unrecognisable after the summer and has grown up now. Kevan Minter: The stats are against Sprinter Sacre as favourites have a poor Arkle record but I still see it as a match between him and Peddlers Cross. Paul Binfield said it was quite possible Sprinter Sacre could go off at odds on Noel Meade even went as far as believing Sprinter Sacre could be the best he’s ever seen. Patrick Mullins was adamant that Sprinter Sacre was his lay of the meeting and believed he would be caught by one of the other previous course winners. John Francome: Sprinter Sacre Jessica Harrington: Sprinter Sacre"Machine". Barry Geraghty told her he is better than Moscow Flyer. Tom Segal: Sprinter Sacre/Menorah ew Davy Russell: Sprinter Sacre"Unbeatable " Bog warrior wont travel unless soft ground. DR – Sprinter Sacre is hard to beat, but is keen on Peddlers Cross. Bog Warrior does not run. Henry de Bromhead: Al Ferof Mike Cattermole: Sprinter Sacre Jim McGrath: Sprinter Sacre Alice Plunkett: Sprinter Sacre blown everyone away. Saw him at Nicky Henderson's described him as an absolute beast of a horse. Joe Tizzard: Can't not be impressed by Sprinter Sacre. Cue Card done nothing wrong glad Bob's Worth beat him at Newbury as he feels CC a 2 miler Colin thought he was a stayer. Had a knock could be a blessing in disguise not running in Game Spirit against SS. Made Oiseau De Nuit look very average in a racecourse gallop. Goes into the race confident. Will bounce him out in front but needs to get it right as doesn't want to play into Al Ferof's hands. Tanya Stephenson: Says Sprinter Sacre has stats against him. Peddlers Cross a drifter thinks he goes Jewson. Puts up Menorah thinks he will jump better going faster. Paddy Power: Special money back if SS wins. Latest figure at 3 million payout if he wins. Thinks they have made a mistake. Plenty of money for Al Ferof. Ruby Walsh: Al Ferof needs to improve to beat Sprinter Sacre, but has an each way chance. Peddlers Cross is not a good enough jumper and spends too much time in the air. Barry Geraghty: Sprinter Sacre to win. No worries about the hill. Paddy Power: Sprinter Sacre. Colm Murphy: Sprinter Sacre. Donn McClean: Sprinter Sacre. Ted Walsh jr: in a similar vein to Patrick Mullins last week, ‘Sprinter Sacre is the lay of the meeting’, and he’s confident Al Ferof can win again at the festival. Kevin O’Ryan: has heard the stable are getting increasingly concerned that Peddlers Cross has not shown much at home recently with maybe the alternative plan being a better option for him. He thinks Sprinter Sacre is beatable with Al Ferof the most likely. Gordon Elliot saying that the 'vibes weren't good for Peddlers Cross in the Arkle' (Presume that came from Jason Maguire) JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE Paul Nicholls: Noland will be my only runner I suspect. David Pipe: The Grand National is the main aim for The Package but he runs here first and was second two years ago off 141 and is now rated 139. He’s in great form but needs everything to go right. Massinis Maguire is also in the Grand National but he is sore after Ascot as he puts so much into his races. We’ll see if he goes here. Junior could go here as his Grand National prep or the Gold Cup or maybe the Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Davy Russell: Magnaminity ??, Going Wrong novice h/cap CHAMPION HURDLE Paul Nicholls: I was beginning to sweat regards Zarkandar before Newbury as the horses next to him were coughing. Since he won as he has snuffling and is on antibiotics but has cantered well since. The quicker they go the better for him. We’ve got improve enormously to beat Hurricane Fly but he is the one unexposed horse. Rock On Ruby will improve enormously for the return to Cheltenham and Noel Fehily rides. I don’t think Binocular enhanced his claims beating Celestial Halo last time. I would rather run Celestial Halo in the World Hurdle but the owner thinks he can finish second in the Champion Hurdle so he runs here. Paul Nicholls thought Zarkander had a chance and would be better than he was at NewburyAlso said Zarkandar was on anti-biotics and would finish the course next couple days, but seemed OK. Also thought Rock on Ruby was way overpriced on form with Binocular. Brampour will run and may have EW squeak, Celestial Halo will take his chance. PN- Few horses coughing. Wasn't confident Zark was at his best before Betfair. Called Darlan a bridle horse had a bit of a pop at him saying Zarkandar would have won anyway. Says he must be some horse to win with a cough and is ok now. Rock On Ruby has a great chance on form with Binocular. Celestial Halo runs but not much of a chance. Brampour runs. Paul Jones: I will keep it short and sweet as I can’t see past Hurricane Fly. Oscars Well is my idea of the horse most likely to finish second. Andrew King: The way Binocular beat Celestial Halo was impressive. If that Binocular turns up I think he will give Hurricane Fly a race. He’s an each-way good thing. Andrew King thought Binocular was the EW bet, impressed with last win Charlie Longsdon: Hurricane Fly is outstanding and I expect him to win. I hear Zarkandar didn’t come out of his Newbury win brilliantly. Andrew Tinkler: Binocular looked great at Wincanton and I will be really surprised if he is not in the first three. I preferred him to Grandouet as our main hope even before Grandouet had his setback. Kevan Minter: I could win on Hurricane Fly. The Evens keeps getting wiped out every time someone offers it on the exchanges. Paul Binfield thought Zarkandar had a decent chance of beating Hurricane Fly Ruby Walsh: reckons Zarkandar isn't quick enough to win a CH. Hurricane Fly will win. Zarkander has not enough pace. John Francome: Binocular Jessica Harrington: Hurricane Fly/ Oscars Well ew. JH – Oscars Well loves good ground and a fast run 2m will suit, will possibly be in the first 3. But Hurricane fly will be hard to beat. Tom Segal: Doesn't like odds on shots but thinks H Fly wins. Mentions Celestial Halo before picking Overturn E/W. Henry de Bromhead: Hurricane Fly Mike Cattermole: Hurricane Fly/ Overturn ew Noel O’Brien: Hurricane Fly Jim McGrath: Hurricane Fly Alice Plunkett: Binocular 20kg lighter best he's been. If he's gna win another Champ hurdle it's now. Joe Tizzard: Likes Hurricane Fly doesn't think English bunch are up to much. Didn't think the Betfair was a great race. The Fly all day. David Pipe: Hurricane Fly should win runs on any ground. Also likes Overturn e/w off a nice break. Without H Fly it's an open Champ Hurdle. Paddy Power: Hurricane Fly will win and Binocular has a good each way chance. Colm Murphy: Hurricane Fly will win and Binocular has a good each way chance. Donn McClean: Hurricane Fly will win. CROSS COUNTRY CHASE Nick Williams: Maljimar will run again and has won two cross country races in France. He has twice been beaten at the Festival at 1-10 in running so hopefully it will be third time lucky. Philip Hobbs: Balthazar King will run. He hurt himself in the fracas here at the December Meeting but is okay now. Paul Jones asked Philip Hobbs about Balthazar King, and I thought he got quite a positive response to his chances 14-1 EW not the worse bet in this race Noel O’Brien: Scotsirish cross country Davy Russell: Scotsirish wont stay 3m7f in a horse box! Henry De Bromhead reported Sizing Australia is going well and the faster the ground the better for that one Ted Walsh jr very animated with Uncle Junior who he won’t see beaten. He thinks he’ll comfortably dispose of Scotsirish in the Cross Country. Tony Martin: Would love to see his Saddler’s Storm get into the Cross Country. He seemed very sweet on the horse. Willie Mullins - Scots Irish never won over 3m 7f, but has a good chance. OLBG MARES HURDLE Nick Williams: There is no strength in depth in the mares race whereas there will be 24 runners in the Coral Cup so we will run Swincombe Flame here. I want to take the easier option and I think she will be in the first three. Willie Mullins: Quevega schooled over hurdles at the curragh at the weekend,worked great but got a slight bang,nothing worrying though. Quevega gave herself a little bang during schooling. All ok. Loves the fast ground. CENTENARY NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE Mike Cattermole: Bless the wings- Novice h/cap or Byrne group |
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WEDNESDAY
NATIONAL HUNT NOVICE CHASE Paul Nicholls - Harry The Viking will definitely stay and has not run as he want him fresh. He has been coughing but we are confident he will get over it. Nick Williams - Alfie Spinner will run after his good third in the Reynoldstown and we have booked Sam Waley-Cohen. He will definitely get the trip. Charlie Longsdon - The plan is to run Universal Soldier. He has only had one run for us and, to be fair, although he won easily it was a mickey mouse race as Chartreux didn’t get very far. He pulled a muscle on his last start for his previous trainer and is best fresh. He is as slow as a hearse and needs all of 4m so this race should suit him and there is a good chance that Jamie Codd will ride and he has won this race twice before. I would like it to be on the easy side of good ground for him. Strongbows Legend is entered but this might come a year too soon for him, we’ll consider it as he won’t get another chance. Andrew Tinkler - We don’t really have anything for this. Loose Performer maybe but he is not a horse to back at the Festival. Teaforthree I like but just concentrate on the best amateur riders. Kevan Minter - A hard race to play in. Teaforthree and Fists Of Fury have been the horses for money recently. Jim McGrath - Quantitative easing Kevin O’Ryan - Allee Garde for the 4 miler. Willie Mullins - Alle Garde will float on the ground, would prefer a bit more experience. NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NEPTUNE HURDLE Paul Nicholls - I was discussing running plans for Prospect Wells with Graham Wylie and he told me Boston Bob is likely to run here. Doesn't have any runners, not spoken to Ruby but feels Boston Bob will take all the beating & best form in the race. Philip Hobbs - He has pulled a hamstring and needs a few days easy. He is not out of the race but more than a week off and it’s a problem. It’s 50-50. Paul Jones - I have a lot of respect for the Fingal Bay-Simonsig Sandown form but I rate Boston Bob even a notch up from that giving 10lbs in heavy ground to class horses last time and I hope they run here and think they might as Mullins and Wylie both like the race and it is more prestigious than the Albert Bartlett. I strongly fancy Boston Bob to win whichever race he runs in. Paul Jones thought Boston Bob had the soundest chance, indeed had the best novice hurdle form at the meeting. Also didn’t think Simonsig would win this if running Charlie Longsdon - We’ve got Cross Of Honour for this. He’s rated 126. If he was 130 he would have gone for the Coral Cup which would have been ideal but I doubt he would get in off 126. We need to a 140+ horse for this. Dawn Commander will run either here or the Albert Bartlett. Andrew Tinkler - This is Simonsig’s other option but I would personally like to see him in the Supreme as think he is a real two-miler. Kevan Minter - Even if Fingal Bay does run I would be worried about the form of the Hobbs yard. Boston Bob will start favourite if he runs here or the Albert Bartlett. Andrew King thought it was between Fingal bay and Boston Bob Henry de Bromhead - Monksland Tanya Stephenson - Battonier/Boston bob if he runs. She loves Battonier. Reeled in Broadbackbob looked strong coming up the hill. Davy Russell - Boston Bob wont run and if he does wont win this. Make your mark not good enough. Mount Benbulben will win if he runs in this Noel O’Brien - Boston bob Alice Plunkett - Simonsig likely fav. Trainer feels he's a proper champion of the future. He stays but has exceptional speed. Joe Tizzard - Possibly runs Ohio Gold but ground gone against him but not without an e/w chance. David Pipe - Has a couple of entries Boston Bob the horse for him. Paddy Power - Boston Bob best novice in Ireland. Top class form feels he will run in Neptune now Fingal Bay come out. Thinks he's very very good. Boston Bob and Monksland each way. Donn McClean - Monksland. Ruby Walsh - Boston Bob prefers better ground. Unsure about Sous Le Cieux. Whatever Willies Mullins runs has a chance. Jessica Harrington – Simonsig Both Ted Walsh jr and Tony Martin were suitably reverential about Boston Bob Damien McElroy - edged more towards Monksland and all agreed they would be surprised if this doesn’t go the Irish trainers’ way. Tony Martin thought Sous Le Sioux would beat his Benefficient if they met again, implying that he won’t get that soft lead here. Kevin O’Ryan believes Boston Bob will go to the Albert Bartlett. Nobody impressed with Simonsig whose sketchy jumping will see him struggle. RSA CHASE Paul Nicholls - We’ve purposely not run Join Together saving him for this. He jumps well and stays very well. Stamina is his forte so he would prefer the New Course (RSA run on Old Course). Paul Nicholls said Join Together has won twice at the course, and would stay on as well as anything in the race. Join together not far off Grand Crus on ratings. In good order. Proper chaser thought he was slow but kept on improving. Ruby not said who he's riding yet. S Conti goes to Aintree. Didn't feel he stayed at Kempton or Ascot. David Pipe - If I could have £1 for every time I have been asked where Grands Crus will run. It’s a nice dilemma to have. It’s frightening looking at the media every day seeing who is missing the Festival so let’s see. We will decide five days before. David Pipe said Grand Crus was in great form at home, probably wouldn’t decide on the race, until the 5 day decs. After hearing news about Kauto Star, Grand Crus will be left in both 5 day entries. Grand Crus done nothing wrong. Gave him an entry in Betfair not worried about taking on older horses. Long way to go & plenty to happen. Not totally sure he will get the 3 m 2. Said everything up in the air has the ability to travel & jump in a Gold Cup. If Kauto's out he's 2nd fav. He seemed very undecided at times but just get the feeling he was edging towards Gold Cup. Paul Jones - Grands Crus wouldn’t be a stats horse as Feltham winners have a shocking record but we know he bounds up the hill. I strongly fancy Bobs Worth each-way. He was giving Invictus weight at Ascot when not beaten far having only had one gallop since a wind op and is much better racing left-handed being unbeaten at Cheltenham in three starts. He also only had five lengths to find with Grands Crus in the Feltham and has had a wind op since and will be happier away from Kempton. Paul Jones respected Invictus and Bobs Worth who is 3/3 at Cheltenham. Indeed thought Bobs Worth EW at 5-1 was one of the best bets at the meeting Andrew King - Grands Crus has to be one of the better bets of the meeting of those at short prices. Andrew king thought Bobs Worth would go well, but Grand Crus would win if running Charlie Longsdon - I really can’t see past Grands Crus, he has too much class for these. Andrew Tinkler - I’ve not had much to do with Bobs Worth until five days before Ascot when I was asked to school him beforehand. He has no wow factor about him and I would be a bit surprised if he can beat Grands Crus. It can often take a run to get over a wind operation as they think it might hurt them the next time they race. I think that might have happened at Ascot as he looked quite laboured but then when he realised it wasn’t going to hurt he ran on. Kevan Minter - Grands Crus is one of my bankers of the meeting. He has high-class hurdles form and travels really easily. Invictus would be my idea of the main danger. Ruby Walsh – Grand Crus doesnt really see out his races,Ruby also doesnt like peddlers cross,says he doesnt have a good enough cut at his fences. Grand Crus is beatable. Sir De Champs has a chance with a run. Barry Geraghty was quite sweet on Bobs Worth in the RSA. Grand Crus is beatable. Bobs Worth is his choice. Davy Russell - First Lieutenant/Sir de Champs. First Lieutenant does not have a chance and his form is not good enough and would prefer 2m 5f. He fancies Call the Police with a run. Jim McGrath - Grand Crus/First Lieutenant Tanya Stephenson - Grand cru's will go for gold- First Lieutenant/Bobsworth. Always felt Bob's Worth crying out for Cheltenham. Joe Tizzard - Cannington Brook got an entry but might go handicap. Paddy Power - A lot of people waiting for NRNB. Bob's Worth 3/3 at Chelt. 4/4 Left handed. First Lieutenant ran well behind Last Installment. Bobs Worth. Jessica Harrington - Grand Crus, but admits he is vulnerable. Colm Murphy - Whatever Davy Russell rides. Donn McCVlean - First Lieutenant. But was disappointed to hear what DR had to say. Both Kevin O’Ryan and Tony Martin solidly against Grand Crus. Tony Martin preferring Sir Des Champs Both Kevin O’Ryan and Damien McElroy opted for First Lieutenant, confident of Mouse Morris’s abilities with his small string to get one ready for the meeting. QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE Philip Hobbs - The problem with Wishfull Thinking has been his breathing. He has 2 wind ops already and it is still not sorted. He has one decent runs this season and three moderate runs. His best trip is somewhere between 2m-3m. I don’t know! It’s hard to tell when he can’t get the air. Paul Jones - Sizing Europe for me is not just the best two-miler chaser in training but the best chaser in training full stop and is a bet at odds-against. Andrew King - Wishfull Thinking has lost the plot. Finians Rainbow is very beatable. Sizing Europe should win but it’s not a race I want to get involved in. Andrew King thought Wishfull Thinking at his best would be interesting Charlie Longsdon - Sizing Europe should retain his crown. There is not much more to say really, he bolts up over 2m and doesn’t stay 3m. If healthy, he’ll win. Andrew Tinkler - Finian’s Rainbow schooled well this morning. I can’t see him beating Sizing Europe though. Whoever wins this year won’t win it again next year though as Sprinter Sacre will. Paul Binfield thought Big Zeb was the better bet at the prices Tom Segal rates Sizing Europe as a 1/3 shot. Thinks Sizing Europe will win. Bookies may go out to get him on the day. Master Minded only recent QM Champ to retain crown. Henry de Bromhead reported all is well with horse Joe Tizzard - Sizing Europe fan. Not the strongest Champ chase. Thought he was a spring horse but done well this season. David Pipe - Im So Lucky & Imsingingtheblues may run for some gd prizemoney. The fav looks a gd thing. Paul Nicholls - Thinks fav will be hard to beat. Will probs run Kauto Stone doesn't think he stayed at Ascot. Paddy Power - Feels Big Zeb & Sizing Europe beat each other value with Big Zeb. Colm Murphy - Big Zeb will find it difficult to beat Sizing Europe, but has a chance. Barry Geraghty - Finnians Rainbow is 90% of the horse he should be, he was a better horse last year. He may come good in this race. Big Zeb will be close to Sizing Europe. Donn McClean - Either of the top two. Ruby Walsh - Sizing Europe. Davy Russell - Better ground will suit Big Zeb. Jessica Harrington - Sizing Europe, but Big Zeb will get close. CORAL CUP David Pipe - Our Father could run in this or Pertemps. Got to improve but has a big reputation. Big horse will carry weight. Thinks he will stay 3 mile or has the speep for 2 and a half. Philip Hobbs - Dare Me and Featherbed Lane are intended runners. Dare Me may be eight but he is still improving. Dunraven Storm was a possible but returned lame from Ascot so may not go anywhere at Cheltenham. Jim McGrath - Cape Dutch Davy Russell - Toner Doudaries Paul Nicholls - Nothing in Coral Cup unless King Of The Night runs. Joe Tizzard - Third Intention runs in Coral Cup but not happy with rise in weights. Didn't think it was a gd National Spirit hurdle. Kevin O’Ryan - talked up Gordon Elliott’s Toner D'Oudairies in the Coral Cup but he has been backed into favouritism. Gordon Elliott - His best chances of a winner are ... Toner D'Ouderies(really likes him in the Coral Cup). FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDCIAP HURDLE Paul Nicholls - Hinterland will probably run. Ruby told me he overdid the waiting tactics last time saying it wasn’t his best ride. He is still on the same mark. He’ll have a big weight but is built to carry it. He is not as well handicapped as when Sanctuaire won it but good enough to win off his mark. Ulck Du Lin def runs didn't want to ruin his mark. David Pipe - Mentions Kazlian for the Fred Winter needs to brush up jumping. 130 is ok in his opinion but won 2 poor races. Hopeful. Kevin O’Ryan - Vendor of Alan King’s for the Fred Winter but that’s no news anymore. Willie Mullins - Ut De Sivola Not much experience. (also entered in Triumph) WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER Philip Hobbs - Village Vic will probably run but he wouldn’t be as good as Cheltenian who won it last year. He is going the right way. Nick Williams - Horatio Hornblower will be entered and if he is full of himself and looks well in his coast I would go for it. If he can improve a 3-4 lengths then we are in the mix but he would need good-to-soft or slower to run. Nick Williams said Horatio Hornblower was nice horse and would run, if the going had “soft” in it Andrew King likes New Years Eve and Population Paul Jones said that the top BHA rated horse on the flat do run well in this race, and Moscow Mannon would be the horse backed on the day Ruby liked the bumper at newbury few weeks ago that Shutthefrontdoor won,said it rode like a very good race Tom Segal - Village vic Davy Russell - Will be an english trained winner, likes Royal Guardsman. Do not back New Years Eve as the sire is rubbish. An English horse should win it such as Royal Guardsman. The best Irish horses are not running in the race. Jim McGrath - New years eve Jessica Harrington - Jetski if all goes well when it runs this weekend. Maybe Moscow Mannon. Paddy Power - Moscow Mannon Ruby Walsh - Maybe Village Vic. Colm Murphy - The New One, trained by Nigel Twisten Davis. Donn McClean - No opinion. In fact no one had a strong opinion. Ted Walsh jr isn’t keen on Moscow Mannon, sweated up last week at a (after race spin?). Won’t handle the pressure of the festival. In an open event, Clonbanan Lad for him at the prices. Kevin O’Ryan – the Mullins bumper horses this year are just not to the same level of the others in the field. Again, the feeling that the English based trainers could have this between them. Pretty much, a steer clear of this one. Willie Mullins - Best chance is probably Champagne Fever. |
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THURSDAY
JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE Paul Nicholls - The plan is to run Cristal Bonus in the Pendil and then this race if good or softer. He is classy being rated 152 over hurdles. PN- S Conti had a few coughs goes to aintree see RSA. Crystal Bonus very fragile/hard to train but very good on his day. Wouldn't want it too quick jumps & travels well. Nick Williams - For Non Stop needs everything to go right in his races. Quite a few of these are much of a muchness so he has a chance. Paul Jones - If you split stakes on Sir Des Champs and Cristal Bonus I don’t think you will lose on the race. Said he thought he had never seen Ruby Walsh look happier than the last time he got off Cristal Bonus who jumps for fun, also likes Sir Des Champs, winner would come form one of these two Andrew Tinkler - I schooled Solix this week. He jumped the first three beautiful but was bit flat at the fourth, or French as we like to call it at the yard. He has a good chance and he is better than his form says he is. Andrew king thought For Non Stop could go off favourite and was the most likely winner Tom Segal - Peddlers Cross turns up will be fav. Joe Tizzard - Michael Flips could run well at a big price Alice Plunkett - For Non Stop has some very good form. David Pipe - For Non Stop has a good chance. Crystal Bonus looked impressive but questions what he beat after Minella Class pulled up. Notus De La Tour & Zaynar entered. NDT also in H'caps. Zaynar just arrived only knows what he's done on track & only entry. Thinks if Peddlers Cross goes here it's the right race for him. PERTEMPS FINAL Paul Nicholls - I will run Sonofvic who qualified courtesy of bad weather at Carlisle. Paul Nicholls was keen on Sonofvic, 20-1 seems a decent price. PN- Son Of Vic. Aimed at this race since jumping moderately. Got a chance. David Pipe - Buena Vista will be going for a third win. I was worried after his Kempton run but he showed a lot more spark last time and that run coincided with better ground. He has won this race off 133 and 138 and is 140 this year so it is not impossible and we will probably put a 10lbs claimer on. Whoever rides he will give them a fantastic spin. David Pipe expected Buena Vista to run well again, he had been concerned from two races ago, when he seemed to lose form, but last run was pretty good. Buena Vista still has a chance on official rating DP- Buena Vista better on good ground not impossible but getting older. Probs last festival. Didn't think he would win last year. Going well at home. Our Father would be his best chance if he runs. Philip Hobbs - Voladaor is a proper stayer with a squeak but nothing stronger than that. Willie Mullins - likes sweet my lord in the pertemps Tanya Stephenson – Sonovic Jessica Harrington - Jetson has an each way chance in the Pertemps. RYANAIR CHASE David Pipe - Great Endeavour is the Plate but I imagine the owner will want to run here. Everything went wrong with him in the 3m Festival handicap last year and needs to improve to win. 2n5f at Cheltenham is ideal for him. David pipe thought Great Endeavour had a really good chance which would improve on better going. DP- Great Endeavor got to improve. Best fresh in cracking form drier the form the better but has 10 lbs to find. Would go h'cap if up to him but owner wants to run in Ryanair. Nick Williams - Gauvain is a 2m4f horse but he will go to the race where he has the best chance of picking up some prize money so the race with the smallest field (other option is Champion Chase). Paul Jones - Having not been a great fan if they run Somersby here I am very much warming to his each-way chance as he has the class, is most consistent and cheekpieces could be the making of him. Paul Jones thought Somersby was very good EW bet, but not sure he wouldn’t go for the Queen Mother Chase. Great Endeavour and Medermit needed to find around 7lbs Charlie Longsdon - I don’t think you can rule out Albertas Run again and Jonjo knows what it takes. I’d love to this horse win it for a third time. If it comes up soft though I would switch to Rubi Light. Andrew Tinkler - Riverside Theatre was very much tuned up for Ascot. He gets himself fit so there is not much to work on. He could be better on a flat track. I quite like the chances of Medermit to reverse form as Choc almost fell off during the race which we gave him stick for and he wasn’t beaten far and 2m5f suits him really well. If you offered me the ride between Riverside Theatre and Medermit, I would pick Medermit. Kevan Minter - The message was very strong for Riverside Theatre at Ascot and the money was right. For me he is an outstanding each-way bet. Paul Binfield said Noble Prince is the selection here, last race, ground was too soft. Massive chance this time Andrew King thought it was between Somersby and Great Endeavour John Francome - Albertas run Jessica Harrington - Rudi Light/Albertas run/Noble Prince Tom Segal - Medermit if runs/Noble Prince Davy Russell - Noble Prince. Rubi Light can have one good run on good ground and this is his chance. He has improved 10lbs since last year. His bet of the meeting is Noble Prince! Has had a wind op since last year. Hayley O’Connor - Noble Prince Mike Cattermole - Rudi Light/Noble Prince Jim McGrath - Noble Prince Paul Nicholls - Poquelin in good form the drier the ground the better. Big price and has an e/w chance. PP- Love for Great Endeavour to win. Noble Prince has a great chance. Had a small op. Step up in trip just like in the Jewson. Joe Tizzard - Riverside Theatre just coming right could be the horse he thought he would be last year. Seemed very keen on him. Ruby Walsh - Rubi Light is vulnerable on good ground. Would love Quel Esprit to run. His choice is Albertas Run. Barry Geraghty - It is a very open race and is keen on riverside Theatre. Colm Murphy - Noble Prince providing the ground is good as well as Somersby. Donn McClean - If ground is soft then Rubi Light, if ground is good, the Noble Prince. Paddy Power - Somersby. Ted Walsh jr keen on Somersby but Damien McElroy strongly against the horse who is the proverbial bridesmaid in these events, or words to that affect. Kevin O’Ryan, Somersby and Great Endeavour with Tony Martin favouring Riverside Theatre. WORLD HURDLE Paul Nicholls - Big Buck’s is not coughing. He wasn’t at his best in the Cleeve and came back a bit quiet but has bloomed since. He worked with Kauto this morning and I am very happy with him. Oscar Whisky could be the hardest opponent he has faced as more pacey and has looked very good over 2m4f and is an unknown over 3m. He could be very good. He’s been hurdling too long now to ever go for the Gold Cup. Paul Nicholls said Big Buck’s was Ok, no cough. Indeed he said the older horses all seem Ok, it’s just the younger ones who have shown some signs. Big Buck’s has come on from last run. He did think Oscar Whisky would be his toughest challenger yet. PN- Gave him another run to keep fitness up. In good form. Oscar Whisky very worthy & interesting opponent. Thinks OW will be fine over longer trip but says Big Buck's' strengths are his stamina. David Pipe - Big Buck’s is a cert but there is lots of good prize money for Dynaste to chase. Worrying to hear Big Buck’s not at his best last time given he gave us weight an easy beating. David Pipe said Big Buck’s was certainty and that Dynaste was playing for one of the places. DP- No way to get Big Buck's beat. Only way he gets beat if Ruby doesn't ride him. Dynaste can get in the first 3. Will be great if he can looking forward to RSA with him next year. Paul Jones - I’ll be betting without Big Buck’s and reckon if he runs Thousand Stars is the e/w value as he is more or the less than same horse as Oscar Whisky over 2m and 2m4f. Paul Jones wished they would run Thousand Stars in this race rather than Champion Hurdle Charlie Longsdon - Big Buck’s, what more can I add? Andrew Tinkler - Ruby says Big Buck’s is the biggest cert in racing. Oscar Whisky will be second or third. If there were a Ryanair Hurdle though he would win that. As for the Aintree Hurdle as some say he won’t stay as Thousand Stars nearly caught him that day, I thought Barry nicked the race at Aintree rather than committed too soon him. I thought it was a brilliant ride. Kevan Minter - Big Buck’s is an awesome machine but why take 4/9 now when he will trade at around Evens in-running at some point? Colm Murphy confirmed Voler la Vedette runs in the WH. Big Bucks to win. Would not explain why Voler la Vedette was in the stayers hurdle and not the Mares Hurdle. He reckons 3m might be best trip. Davy Russell - Big bucks/ Thousand stars w/o, says Carlito Brigante has no chance,he was quite funny actually lol. Better horses in this year’s race than last year. Carlito Brigante has no chance. Big Bucks to win. Noel Meade thought Big Bucks winning run could come to an end sometime and why not here. He’s preference was Oscar Whisky. Patrick Mullins believed Thousand Stars was as good as Oscar Whisky yet he is double the price. Andrew Lynch believes he can nick a place on Voler La Vedette. I think it was Paul Carberry on the night who quoted Ruby Walsh as stating Big Bucks just ambles along and doesn’t get himself in the race until the final turn. He couldn’t see anything other than a Big Bucks repeat win. John Francome - Big bucks/ Mourad w/o Jessica Harrington - Voler la vedette w/o. Big Bucks a certainty. Tom Segal - Big bucks/ Carlito Brigante w/o. BB a 1/7 shot Noel O’Brien - "Big bucks might be beaten" Mike Cattermole - Oscar Whiskey Jim McGrath - Big bucks Paddy Power - A lot of ppl looking for other options. Oscar Whisky unlucky not to be beaten this season. 3 miles could bring out more. Big Buck's will win. Oscar Whiskey has a chance. Ruby Walsh - Big Bucks will win. Thousand Stars has an each way chance. Barry Geraghty - Big Bucks will win. Donn McClean - Big Bucks. Tony Martin, similarly to Noel Meade last week, was of the opinion that the Big Bucks winning run must come to an end sometime. While the panel all were confident enough regarding Big Bucks, the one they wanted to see run was Mullin’s So Young. Both Tony Martin and Kevin O’Ryan recommended him either each way or “without the favourite” market. Willie Mullins - Mourad is a great each way bet in the Stayers Hurdle BYRNE GROUP HANDICAP CHASE Paul Nicholls said Crack Away Jack would run here, seemed quite keen on a decent run as well I thought David Pipe said Salut Flo was entered in just about every race; there was some money for this one yesterday in this race. DP- Keen on Salut Flo. Still young hopefully at right end of handicap in Byrne Group Plate. Entered in other races. |
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FRIDAY
TRIUMPH HURDLE Paul Nicholls - Ruby will school Dildar on Friday. He has worked and schooled well on Tuesday and there is plenty of improvement to come. He runs in the Adonis and Dodging Bullets runs in the Dovecote. Pearl Swan has the best form so far and I can get him better than last time. All are also in the Supreme so let’s see how Dildar gets on first. Paul Nicholls said Pearl Swan has the best form so far of his horses, but also said Dildar runs this Saturday, against Sadlers Risk. I (Catch Me If You Can) got the impression he has very high hopes for Dildar. Paul Nicholls did say he wouldn’t be surprised if Minsk never ran either this weekend or at Cheltenham! PN- Thought it was a harsh decision to take race away from Pearl Swan.Thinks he has best form & will improve. Dodging Bullets really interesting outsider lots of improvement. Dildar disappointing. Philip Hobbs - Sadlers Risk is a good horse but let’s get over Saturday first. He has a lot to prove has the potential to be very good. He is my best chance of the week. Philip Hobbs said Sadlers Risk runs this Saturday, very happy with him Nick Williams - Urbain De Sivola is a jumps bred so our chances are helped a lot if it comes up soft to make this a real stamina test. Nick Williams said Urbain De Sivola would run if ground was on the soft side Paul Jones - Grumeti is so professional that he looks an each-way steal to me at 10/1. Paul Jones thought Minsk could go off as low at 2-1, as his flat form is far in excess of anything else Andrew king liked Grumeti and Pearl Swan Paul Binfield likes Darroun Ruby and Willie both agree Ut De Sivola is way overpriced,They hadnt got him ready in his last race and wanted to get another run into him for experience,They were confident he's a lot better than he showed last time out. Ruby Walsh - None really stand out. Maybe Ut De Sivola Nina put up Darroun and Baby Mix but nobody felt there was a stand out juvenile left in the race. Paul Carberry gave a mention to Gordon Elliot’s Shadow Catcher as his value in an otherwise open contest. Tom Segal - Shadow Catcher. TS- 5/10 Adonis winners won Triumph. Likes Baby Mix. Balder Succes also a possible at a bigger price. Jim McGrath - Shadow Catcher David Pipe - Kazlian could still run. Paddy Power - At a preview with Phillip Hobbs who said Saddlers Risk his best chance at festival even if Fingal Bay running. Baby Mix beat him giving 3lb. Early bets taken on Ranjan. Pearl Swan, Shadow Catcher and Balder Success. Joe Tizzard - Paddy Brennan told him about Baby Mix at the start of season. Felt they were training him too hard when he lost at Chelt. Jessica Harrington - Irish form does not stand up. Use a pin to pick the winner. Davy Russell - No bet. Bookies benefit. Barry Geraghty - Lyvius, if he runs well on Friday in Newbury. Colm Murphy - Saddlers Risk Donn McClean - Shadow Catcher Kevin O’Ryan and Damien McElroy both expressed enthusiasm for Gordon Elliot’s Shadow Catcher and the money is now coming for him. Damien also thought Darroun is good value. Snippet from Kevin – Robert Thornton thinks Balder Success is the better of the two Alan King horses but is committed to Grumeti, as it’s his sponsor’s horse. Ted Walsh Jr and Tony Martin also believed Shadow Catcher was the best value but the former did pass on Ruby’s confidence with Pearl Swan. For such an open looking race this panel didn’t shy from nailing their colours to Shadow Catcher. Gordon Elliott - His best chances of a winner are ... Shadow Catcher (Will be on the bridle at the last hurdle in the Triumph but doesn't know what will happen after that) VINCENT O’BRIEN COUNTY HURDLE Philip Hobbs said Snap Tie is in good form, he reported this last year but the horse never got in, hasn’t run for two years, so you’d want a very big price, not sure 33-1 is big enough to tempt me Jim McGrath - Prospect wells Jessica Harrington - Citizenship County or Martin Pipe if it doesnt get in county Tom Segal - Citizenship County Mike Cattermole -Snap tie-county hdle Paul Nicholls - Ted Spread running won at Taunton recently. Needs some to come out. Brampour won't run. Damien McElroy - Toner D’Oudairies too as well as Moon Dice for the County Hurdle. Paul Flynn said Moon Dice has a great each way chance in the County Hurdle. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICE HURDLE Paul Nicholls very keen on Rocky Creek. As mentioned earlier he believes Boston Bob will go to the Neptune. Rocky Creek wouldn't want ground too quick. Be a nice chaser next year & won't run if too quick. Will run well. Andrew King thought Rocky Creek would go off 7-2 if Boston Bob was NR, so 10-1 at the moment was excellent Paul Jones was not taken by Brindisi Breeze last run, not up to the standard to win this race Patrick Mullins said he believed this would be the target for Boston Bob and he was very keen on its chances. I got the impression this was his favourite horse in the yard such was his enthusiasm. Paul Carberry flagged up both Mount Benbullben for Gordon Elliott and Meade’s Ipsos Du Berlais. John Francome - Rocky Creek/Brindisi Breeze Jim McGrath - Rocky creek Davy Russell - Brindisi breeze Jessica Harrington - Sea of thunder Noel O’Brien – Ballyrock Tom Segal - Mount benbulben. Fox Appeal 33/1 Emma Lavelles horse. Paddy Power - Mount Benbulben cost a quarter of a mill. 2nd to Boston Bob. Great chance. Gordon Elliott - His best chances of a winner are Mount Benbulben ... GOLD CUP Paul Nicholls - It just astounds me how Kauto Star looks. He did a strong 5f with Big Buck’s and for the first time in a long time he took a long time to pull up. His enthusiasm is unbelievable. He is in as good form now as before Haydock and Kempton. Ruby schools him on Friday. Not having Denman harrying him this year will be in his advantage and I also think there is more pressure on Sam (Waley-Cohen) this year. I don’t think Long Run has trained on. Paul Nicholls said Kauto Star was in top form at home, as good as he has seen him Wasn’t sure Long Run had trained on, and that meant there was not a lot between them. PN- Kauto better than last year. Chelt will help Long Run but Kauto won 2 Gold Cups. Feels Long Run not improving had a lot of hard races in France as a young horse. Says if Burton Port was trained by anyone else he would have gone past Long Run in the Denman Chase. Long Run one to beat if he jumps well. Won't run Kauto unless he's 100% for the race. To me it seemed it was less likely Kauto would run. Said What A Friend will run well. Philip Hobbs - Captain Chris has always jumped to the right but not like that before. Let’s see how we go in the next two weeks, he’s in the Ryanair as well but may not go to Cheltenham. If there was an obvious race on a right handed course he would go there but there isn’t now until Pucnhestown. He’s not looking great in his coat right now. Philip Hobbs was asked about Captain Chris, he said he has always jumped right, so that was not an issue as such, however he was not at his best IF HE RAN it would be Ryanair or Gold Cup, however then said he wouldn’t really want more than 3 miles, so I (Catch Me If You Can) give him next to no chance of running in the Gold Cup, and I got the impression he was by no means certain to run at the Festival Nick Williams - Diamond Harry has had a wind op. That’s the first time I’ve done it mid season and wouldn’t do it again, I’d wait until the summer. Paul Jones - Weird Al e/w for me. Doesn’t have a lot to find with Kauto and Long Run on Haydock form which came too soon after winning the Charlie Hall and has a very good Cheltenham record. Paul Jones thought the front two were vulnerable, and that Weird Al was the best bet at 20-1 Andrew King - I have a feeling that the big two could get beat but prefer Kauto to Long Run. What A Friend is a massive e/w price at 40/1. Andrew king thought What a Friend EW, although Paul Nicholls dismissed this saying 3rd was his best chance if everyone turned up Nina Carberry – Synchronised Patrick Mullins - Kauto with a view that Quel Esprit is his value. Noel Meade thought the same with Quel Esprit (ie – value). Andrew Lynch - Long Run. Paul Carberry - Kauto Star. Robbie Hennessy - Synchronised. John Francome – Long Run Jim McGrath – Long Run Noel O’Brien – Long Run Mike Cattermole – Long Run Davy Russell – Midnight Chase. Long Run to win. But Midnight Chase has a great each way chance. Tom Segal – Midnight Chase. Midnight Chase E/W. Also feels Burton Port could have won lto. Hayley O’Connor - Burton Port Paddy Power - Long Run much better last time. Jumping better. In The Kauto camp and hopes he can get there. Burton Port will improve. Puts up Midnight Chase D Costello gets a huge tune out of horse. Long Run is vulnerable but should win. Joe Tizzard - Kauto been phenomenal. Weighing room got a bit emotional when Kauto won at Haydock. David Pipe - Not sure Long Runs been the horse he was last year. Tom Scu rode The Giant Bolster in Denman Chase & feels Grand Crus would have gone very very close. Seemed quite confident Grand Crus would have won that race. Put up Quel Espirit E/W and also joked Grand Crus E/W. Thought Midnight Chase would come 5th. Alice Plunkett - Midnight Chase E/W Ruby Walsh - Kauto Star has a chance but could struggle to beat Long Run over 3m 2f. He would not give up his ride on Kauto Star. Barry Geraghty - Long Run will improve for his last run. Burton Port has an each way chance. Jessica Harrington - There are questions overs Long Run’s jumping, but he should win. Burton Port can come third. Donn McClean - Weird Al is the value of the race. Tony Martin wouldn’t pitch Grand Crus in this early in his career. Quel Esprit not good enough, Kauto getting too old for this. Weird Al and Midnight Chase best of the rest. MARTIN PIPE HANDICAP HURDLE As usual; David Pipe gets questioned on this race, however he said it is very difficult to even get a horse in this race, he tried with Grand Crus a couple years ago, but couldn’t as he had an OR of only 124. May run I'msingingtheblues off 145 which will be ideal over 2 and a half around Chelt A few mentioned and maybe the most likely is Salut Flo if this Jessica Harrington - Citizenship County or Martin Pipe if it doesnt get in county Paul Nicholls - Ted Spread, Empire Levant Edgardo Sol possibles. Joe Tizzard - Feels David Pipe has a better one lower in the weights than Imsingingtheblues. GRAND ANNUAL Joe Tizzard - Falcon Island & Oiseau De Nuit 2 runners. S Clements to ride ODN to get weight down again. Paul Nicholls - Toubab not fully tuned up last time and will run well on better ground. Ted Walsh jr pillow talk alert. The horse that Nina won on last weekend at Naas. Paul Cashman’s Idarah. Connections are confident. I see it’s in the Grand Annual on the Friday. |
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CHARITY BETS / NAPS
Andrew King - Rocky Creek (Albert Bartlett) Paul Jones - On The Fringe (Foxhunters) Zoey Bird - Scotsirish (Cross Country) Nick Williams - Swincombe Flame EW (David Nicholson Mares) Paul Nicholls - Chapoturgeon (Foxhunters) & Son Of Vic E/W David Pipe - Alfie Spinner (National Hunt Chase) Gave Salut Flo and Our Father as his best chances in handicaps. Race plans not finalised yet. Grand Crus/Alfie Spinner Paul Binfield - Salsify (Foxhunters) Philip Hobbs - Sadlers Risk (Triumph) Willie Mullins - Sweet My Lord (Pertemps) and Boston Bob wherever he runs. Paddy Power - Salsify (Foxhunters) Tom Segal - Fox Appeal (Albert Bartlett) Joe Tizzard - Royal Guardsmen E/W (Bumper) Ted Walsh jr - Uncle Junior (Cross Country) Damien McElroy – Monksland (Neptune) Kevin O’Ryan - Shadow Catcher (Triumph) Tony Martin - Saddlers Storm (Cross Country) but if he doesn’t get in, then Boston Bob in whatever he appears in. Ruby Walsh - Boston Bob, & Ted Spread (County Hurdle) Davy Russell - Noble prince (Ryanair) Colm Murphy - Scotsirish (Cross Country) and Somersby (Ryanair?) Jessie Harrington - Steps to Freedom (Supreme) Barry Geraghty - Bobs Worth (RSA) Gordon Elliott - Master Of Arts (County Hurdle) - connection obviously still there with Pipey. Best bets Tuesday David Pipe - comes out to put up The Package as best bet of Tuesday. In good form likes his mark all signs are good at home. Tom Segal - Maljimar – Cross Country Alice Plunkett - Sizing Australia – Cross Country Joe Tizzard - Cinders & Ashes - Supreme Paul Nicholls – Zarkandar – Champion Hurdle Paddy Power Unaccompanied if she runs in the Mares race. Best bets Wednesday Paddy Power - Sword Of Honour in the Champ Bumper (now a NR) Paul Nicholls - Harry the Viking in the NH Chase Joe Tizzard - Royal Guardsman e/w in Champ Bumper Tom Segal - Battonier - Neptune David Pipe - Alfie Spinner in the NH Chase Best Bets Thursday Paddy Power - Sunnyhillboy - Kim Muir Paul Nicholls - Big Buck's too short. Son Of Vic - Pertemps Joe Tizzard - Grand Vision - Pertemps Alice Plunkett - Big Buck's if you like free money Tom Segal - Faasel - Kim Muir Best Bets Friday Joe Tizzard - Toubab - Grand Annual Paul Nicholls - Chapoturgeon - Foxhunters Paddy Power – Salsify - Foxhunters David Pipe - Monkerty Tunkerty - Foxhunters |
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Great stuff db and thanks for the effort - what do you do in your spare time!
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I'll second that arklearkle.
db you need to get out more.  |
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The word excellent come to mind ,ty DB
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lots of confusion among the experts!!
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Andrew tinklers comments re Sprinter Sacre are interesting, great effort DB tanx
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More proof that these nights can provide good info. At the Ballymore preview night SEVEN days ago, Gordon Elliot said the 'vibes aren't good about Peddlers'. Tonight, McCain rules Peddlers OUT of the Arkle
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db1974 you are a star. Thanks very much for that race by race summary
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Post of the year db, great stuff.
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No worries lads
I feel like I've earned a degree in "cut & paste" in Word |
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wow was thinking of doing a lazy mans version of this before i saw post - agreed clunkis
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Thats very helpful db, thanks. Will make for interesting reading after the event!
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kavvie 05 Mar 12 20:00
lots of confusion among the experts!! Depends who you regard as "experts".......... |
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"Post of the year db1974, great stuff". (© Catch Me ifyoucan)
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ANYWON at the Europa Hotel OR Co.KILDARE, Kavanaghs Pub wons last nite ?
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irishracing.com asked a selection of Irish racing personalities for their best bets at this Year's Cheltenham Festival
Gordon Elliott - SHADOW CATCHER (Triumph Hurdle) “He travelled very well at Leopardstown, and a fast pace will suit him in the Triumph where we’ll be able to drop him in.” Noel Meade - SPRINTER SACRE (Arkle) “He’s one of the best horses I’ve seen for a long, long time. He’s so much better since he’s gone over fences, and I think if you can back him at odds against it’s a great price.” Robert Power - JETSON (Pertemps Final) “I think he won despite the soft ground in the qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas. He’s in very good form and has a good each-way chance.” Tom Malone (bloodstock agent) – PEDDLERS CROSS (Jewson Novices’Chase) I think he’s a stonewall certainty. They are not side-stepping Sprinter Sacre, they’re just doing what is right for the horse and that’s putting him into a race that he’ll win. I can’t see him beaten. Paul Townend - BOSTON BOB (Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle) “He seems to be doing everything right, won well the last day at Leopardstown and I think he could be a Cheltenham type.” Davy Russell - MIDNIGHT GAME (Supreme Novice Hurdle) “I'd say Midnight Game is maybe my best chance judged on the way the Mullins camp are talking about him.” Paul Carberry - SHADOW CATCHER (Triumph Hurdle) “He's a lovely horse with loads of ability and I think the race should suit him.” Andrew Lynch - SALSIFY (Foxhunters) “He was impressive here last time and the better ground will suit him.” Barry Geraghty - SPRINTER SACRE (Arkle Chase) “He's the obvious one. What he has done so far is unbelievable. He broke the track record at Newbury and gave me some feel that day – the way he travelled and jumped. If things go well on the day and we get a clear round he'll be hard to beat. .” Frank Berry - SNAP TIE (County Hurdle) “He was my nap for the meeting last year but was taken out on the morning of the County Hurdle. He has come down the weights a bit since.” Jessica Harrington - STEPS TO FREEDOM (Supreme Novice Hurdle) “He's a nice horse to go there with and I think it's a big plus that he has won around there already.” Tom Taaffe - ARGOCAT (Fred Winter Hurdle) “I like the horse and think he's progressive. He represents a bit of each-way value in the race.” Joe Burke (Stan James) - SIZING AUSTRALIA (Glenfarclas Cross Country) “He’s only up 5lb for winning the race last year, and the prospect of fast ground on the cross-country course will suit him.” Bryan Cooper - LUCKY WILLIAM (Grand Annual) “He’s only got 10st2lb, and I think he’s got a right chance off that mark. He’ll be suited by good ground.” Darragh Fitzpatrick (Ladbrokes) - OSCAR WHISKY (World Hurdle) “I think he’s great value each-way, and he could just do Big Buck’s for toe on the run-in.” Tony Kenny (William Hill) - SIZING EUROPE (Champion Chase) “I think it is a weaker race than last year, and he has such a good record at the track.” Denis Kirwan (TV3) - TETLAMI (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) “I was filming at Nicky Henderson’s yard and he’s very sweet on him.” Ryan McElligott (Irish Field) - FIRST LIEUTENANT (RSA Chase) “He’s a course winner who will love the stiff three miles and the drying ground. His trainer has few peers when it comes to preparing one for this meeting.” Damien McElroy (Journalist) - FIRST LIEUTENANT (RSA Chase) “He’s got a lot in his favour having won there before and will like the trip and good ground. I also think he’s better going left-handed.” Gary O’Brien (At The Races) - SHADOW CATCHER (Triumph Hurdle) “I thought he hit the front too soon at Leopardstown last time, and he looks a bit of value.” Noel O’Brien (NH Handicapper) - BOSTON BOB (Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle) “He gave 10lb and a beating to Lyreen Legend, who has won a Grade 2 since, at Leopardstown. That performance gives him a rating of over 150 which is high for a staying novice at this time of year.” Brian O’Connor (Irish Times) - SHADOW CATCHER (Triumph Hurdle) “He didn’t get the run of the race the last day at Leopardstown, and will appreciate the stronger gallop in the Triumph.” Barry Orr (Betfair) - MOUNT BENBULBEN (Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle) “He was found to be not right when beaten by Boston Bob at Navan, and will love the trip.” Dessie Scahill (Commentator) - DARLAN (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) “He appeared to be going well when falling in the big handicap at Newbury, and was previously very impressive in novice hurdles.” Leon Blanche (****) - BOSTON BOB (Albert Bartlett/Neptune Hurdle) “I'm a big fan of Boston Bob. He's in a couple of races but I've a feeling he'll go for the Albert Bartlett. I think he'll win whatever race he goes in.” Brian Graham (Bookmaker) - AL FEROF (Arkle Chase) “I thought his run in the Victor Chandler was superb for a novice and if you go back to the Supreme last year he was in front of both Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card. Cue Card is going to make it a real test and Al Ferof will get every yard whereas I have a slight doubt about Sprinter Sacre's stamina, especially if by any miracle it turns up soft..” Bernard Barry (leading point-to-point and Shelbourne Park bookmaker) – MOUNT BENBULBEN (Albert Bartlett Novices’Hurdle) Liked him since seeing him win his ‘point’in Tinahely and he looks a bit of value at around 6/1 for the Albert Bartlett. Johnny Birrane (prominent on-course market analyst) – PIQUE SOUS (Weatherbys Champion Bumper) He was impressive at Leopardstown. There were plenty fancied against him including the Weld horse (Dancers Dilemma, finished 2nd) and Fenton’s (Five Point Plan) who finished fourth, but he just ran away from them. He’ll do for me in the bumper. David Redvers (bloodstock agent) – GRANDS CRUS (Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup) would be my fancy if he goes for the Gold Cup and I fancy Vulcanite each-way for the Supreme Novice. Obviously I think Hurricane Fly will win the Champion and Sprinter Sacre will win the Arkle but what do I know as I’m a flat boy these days. Mike Barrett (point-to-point enthusiast/punter) – SALSIFY (Christie’s Foxhunters Chase). He’s won the last three big hunter chases in Ireland, he likes good ground and his performance at Leopardstown the last day makes him the main Irish contender. I know Chapoturgeon and Cloudy Lane are fancied for the home team but with Boxer Georg and Merchant Royal as solid back-up, I think this will be a race for the Irish. Peter Kavanagh (former jockey and a key cog in the Noel Meade team) – SIZING EUROPE (Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase) and SPRINTER SACRE (Racing Post Arkle Chase) Should both win, but they are short prices. . At bigger odds MONKSLAND (Neptune Investment Management Novices’Hurdle) has a big each-way shout. He would want a drop of rain. He is a good horse. Neil O’Donnell (journalist and agent for DBS) – MONKSLAND (Neptune Investment Management Novices’Hurdle) He looked good in his point-to-point before running out and he couldn’t have been any more impressive when winning an admittedly ordinary bumper at Down Royal. He’s gone the right way since and Noel Meade thinks he’s very very smart. His sire, Beneficial is getting plenty of winners.NOT BEFORE EIGHT (Christie’s Foxhunters Chase) has an each-way shout Franco Hughes (bookmaker) – MOSCOW MANNON (Weatherbys Champion Bumper) Up North here we’re all hoping the local horse does the business. It’s creating great banter at the ‘points’up here every Saturday. He is a good horse and I think he can do it for Brian Hamilton and young Lavery. Paul Cashman– FIRST LIEUTENTANT (RSA Chase) He is a good horse and I think he’ll take a lot of beating. Matt O’Connor (amateur rider) – ROYAL GUARDSMAN (Weatherbys Champion Bumper) He was very impressive at Ascot the last day and he has plenty of experience now. I know the Tizzards think a lot of him and they obviously know what’s required to win this race after Cue Card. He should be a value price too. Jim Murphy (Redpender Stud) – QUANTITATIVEEASING (JLT Speciality Handicap Chase) He’s been put by for this and it’ll be on to the Grand National for him after this. I have a two-year-old half-brother to him here by Robin Des Champs so I’d like to see him go well. I bought First Lieutenant as a foal and sold him as a three-year-old so I’ll be watching him closely but a lot will depend on whether Grands Crus goes in the RSA or the Gold Cup. Mikey O’Connor (amateur rider and trainer) – BURTON PORT (Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup) Just looking in from the outside you’d have to love his run the last day. He is a good each-way bet for the Gold Cup. He lost ground going to the last on Long Run last time out but he pressed him all the way to the line after that and you’d have to think that there’ll be more to come. Mark Molloy (trainer and seller) My hope would be an Irish one, two in the Christie’s Foxhunter Chase with SALSIFY and ON THE FRINGE. I don’t know which of the two to pick. Salsify put up a very taking performance the last day whilst Enda’s horse should come on from it and he gallops, jumps and stays. They are two young progressive horses and you’d like to think they’d have too much for the home team. P J Colville (trainer and seller) – PEDDLERS CROSS (Jewson Novices’Chase) Two and half around there won’t be any bother as he’s obviously won a point-to-point and he stays. Over two he was second to Hurricane Fly last year so at 3/1 he looks the bet to me. |
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Dessie Scahill (Commentator) - DARLAN (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle)
“He appeared to be going well when falling in the big handicap at Newbury, and was previously very impressive in novice hurdles.” Anybody know any win stats for fallers going straight to Cheltenham? |
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according to Nick Mordin in the Irish Field, he commented in reference Colour Squadron
"From 1996 there have been 53 horses that ran in hurdle races at the Cheltenham Festival which fell last time out. None of them scored." |
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And Dasium he then went on to tip Colour Squadron
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And Dasium he then went on to tip Colour Squadron
I certainly didn't get that impression from the piece... MONTBAZON WANTS LONGER The re-match between old rivals MONTBAZON (36) and Colour Squadron at Newbury proved unsatisfactory because Colour Squadron slithered to the ground on landing two out when looking set to score. As soon as Colour Squadron exited Montbazon pricked his ears and appeared to idle. Stoked up by his rider he got going again halfway up the run in and powered away for a seven length success. My impression was that it was stamina as much as regaining focus that enabled Montbazon to kick clear. Seeing that he's built and bred for chasing and two and a half miles plus I now have doubts about him being fully effective over two miles in the Supreme Novices. He'd looked pacey enough against inferior rivals at Plumpton, but here my strong suspicion was that Colour Squadron would have left him floundering with superior speed. I think COLOUR SQUADRON (38) would have equalled the rating I've given him before and won this by three or four lengths had he stood up. He's clearly very effective over two miles but this fall is surely going to dent his confidence and make it hard for him to bounce right back at Cheltenham. From 1996 there have been 53 horses that ran in hurdle races at the Cheltenham Festival which fell last time out. None of them scored. |
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Mordins comment seems to relate to hurdlers but I would hazard a guess it is similar for falling chasers too. Has to be regarded a major negative imo.
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How many of those 53 horses actually placed or ran cracking races to be just out of the frame?, and how many of these fallers were rank outsiders anyway?.
Cheltenham is the most competitive NH racing found anywhere on the planet, so Mordins stat might not stand up to closer scrutiny. |
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I've uploaded some of the videos from Monday nights preview in Salthill Hotel fi any of ye are interested.
http://johnmulhollandbookmaker.blogspot.com/ and yes before I get dogs abuse from Galwayman and all his alter egos, yes I work For John Mul. Just incase anyone is interested Hector, Paul Kealy, Barley Curley, Davy Russell, Derek O Connor, Patrick Mullins, Jonathan Mullins & George McDnoagh all interviewed Heres Hector if anybody is too lazy to go into blog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnE1Np2Wbqk&context=C30a8ee5ADOEgsToPDskLH7-Mogl6oqSo3wGWyJSwF |
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Have not got any statistics to hand but some lto falling chasers do win. Moscow Flyer Arkle and St Pirran Grand Annual were recent examples. Voy por Est pu Ch Chase and Albertas Run pu Ryanair.
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Of the last 387 winners at Cheltenham only 13 have won when not completing LTO.
Since 1996 53 have ran over hurdles after a fall lto and none have won |
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menorah also the highest rated hurdler in the field which is a big arkle pointer. i want to back menorah but he cant jump god bless him, so far anyway. if he put in a flawless round he'd win imo.
BIG IF |
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good stuff, shaggy. I am interested in Trilfoium for the supreme, interesting that davy puts up midnight game as his best bet. I also get the feeling that the mullins yard rate Sir Des champs a lot higher that Russell, and Paul townsend would LOVE to ride it in the RSA. Gordan Elliot want as far to say, sir des champs will win what ever it runs at in cheltenham and will win gold cup next year. From the belfast preview the other night
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barney trying to pronounce tetlami
reminds me of my old man trying to pronounce foreign footballers nameshaha!! tetlami does appear to be a big enough price in what looks a very open race! |
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in terms of jumping, there were concerns last year before the arkle in Captain chris and finians rainbow jumping. they came first and second. the way the prices are going i am pushing towards hobbs having menorah right for the day and at 8/1 it would fall in line with the stats for the arkle. i just feel in the novices, too much made of prior to cheltenham form when racing against horses at least a stone not as good as them, these are just the getting ready for the big day, and seeing how a horse reacts to a few mistakes in part of the process. how will SS react when he does not get a fence perfect, we will see.
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im half leaning toward menorah myself. dont have too strong opinion on the arkle tbh only im v strogly against the fav, i dont think he'll win.
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By and large, Menorak actually jumps really well, might do a Quel Esprit on it, I'm not too put off by his jumping, ore the fact that Sprinter Sacre is a machine and Cue Card is pretty good too, Menorah gets 2 miles really well though so these two could set it up for him. I'd be dissapointed if al Ferof is good enough
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