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21 Feb 12
11:43
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Date Joined:
20 May 10
Pipey has 19 in his auld lads hurdle, price should start coming out soon, anybody have an Irish fancy for any of the handicaps?
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Salut Flo the one I'm interested in too, hopefully for the Byrne race
Not sure he'd have won in December, he'd been quite keen, they'd gone very quick up front and he'd made a few errors. His first run in a long time so hopefully knocked the freshness out of him
Not sure he'd have won in December, he'd been quite keen, they'd gone very quick up front and he'd made a few errors. His first run in a long time so hopefully knocked the freshness out of him
Would probably start a single figure price if it goes the Byrne route
Sorry for the delay DV,
Many Irish horses 'hard done by' in handicaps says O'Brien Thursday March 05 2009
There are few more recognisable characters on the racecourse than Noel O'Brien.
Thanks to a distinctive red mop that belies his 49 years, the Turf Club's senior National Hunt handicapper is instantly discernible and even enjoys a bit of a cult following among regular race-goers; most punters are in awe of the fact that anyone can be paid to watch jump racing with the sole objective of rating horses.
Essentially, he is to the National Hunt fanatic what the professional beer-taster is to the alcoholic, and he doesn't deny that the job held similar appeal to him when he started out with the Turf Club in 1977.
"I spent two years in accounts and two years in declarations," he says, "and I used to often say to the lads, 'imagine doing that for your living -- evaluating horses, assessing them, giving them ratings, creating handicaps'. To me, it was the ideal job and, when a position in the department became available, I applied."
Idealised perceptions aside, the handicapper's role is, of course, of immense consequence to both horses' connections and punters alike. Since working his way through the Turf Club's handicapping ranks to assume his current position in 1995, the Kildare man is ultimately responsible for the formation of every handicap hurdle or chase run in Ireland.
Next week, he will be on duty at Cheltenham, where part of his brief will be the patriotic duty of continuing to canvass on behalf of the travelling Irish horses. Despite there being an Anglo-Irish classification agreement between the handicapping departments on either side of the Irish Sea for the past seven years, relations are strained.
Disparities
In short, horses rated 140 or above compete off the same mark in England or Ireland (with the exception of the Aintree Grand National), but massive disparities arise in relation to horses outside the classification, with Irish horses being asked to run off disproportionably high ratings. Francis Flood's P'Tit Fute, for example, has been allocated a mark 20lbs higher than his Irish rating in Wednesday's Coral Cup, and 17lbs higher in Thursday's Pertemps Final.
Handicapping, through its subjective nature, is an inexact science, and the cause of the aggrieved Irish is not helped by the solid performances of so many of our horses, with our representatives winning 9pc of the handicaps at Cheltenham in the past four years. The English handicapper, Phil Smith, points to our impressive recent record of six winners if the last 10 Aintree Grand Nationals as further evidence of the fairness of his system.
O'Brien, however, challenges Smith's seemingly arbitrary methods.
"People say our horses cannot be badly treated in England because our horses do well over there, but the last two-mile handicap hurdle winner we had in the UK was in October, and the last two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle winner we had was in July," he reaons.
" Since the October win, there have been 85 runners, so to say that we're well treated is not borne out by stats like that.
"We have to put this into context, too. Phil's term coincided with this infamous 'Celtic Tiger', when so many of the Irish horses were being kept in the country. We weren't just winning handicaps in England, we were winning Gold Cups, Champion Chases and Champion Hurdles as well.
"Most of our horses have been hard done by next week, and the main problem is that owners and trainers have no idea how they will be treated. After the classification, what I have suggested is a sliding scale, whereby horses from 130 to 139 would carry 1lb more in England, those rated 120 to 129 would carry 2lbs more, and so on.
Competitive
"Naturally, because our racing is so much more competitive, particularly at the bottom end, the further down you go the more you would expect to be penalised in England.
"We have suggested that they come up with their own scale based on what has happened in the UK -- nothing to do with us.
"They would study what they have done with the ratings and how horses have performed, and decide on a suitable, transparent scale.
"We're in discussions at the moment and I would consider Phil Smith a friend of mine but, professionally, he has a job to do and looking after the interests of Irish horses isn't high on the list."
Racegoers in Cheltenham next week will see for themselves if O'Brien's hypothesis about Irish horses being badly handicapped in England is correct. At least, punters now travel well warned.
(© Richard Forristal) Happy Tony
Many Irish horses 'hard done by' in handicaps says O'Brien Thursday March 05 2009
There are few more recognisable characters on the racecourse than Noel O'Brien.
Thanks to a distinctive red mop that belies his 49 years, the Turf Club's senior National Hunt handicapper is instantly discernible and even enjoys a bit of a cult following among regular race-goers; most punters are in awe of the fact that anyone can be paid to watch jump racing with the sole objective of rating horses.
Essentially, he is to the National Hunt fanatic what the professional beer-taster is to the alcoholic, and he doesn't deny that the job held similar appeal to him when he started out with the Turf Club in 1977.
"I spent two years in accounts and two years in declarations," he says, "and I used to often say to the lads, 'imagine doing that for your living -- evaluating horses, assessing them, giving them ratings, creating handicaps'. To me, it was the ideal job and, when a position in the department became available, I applied."
Idealised perceptions aside, the handicapper's role is, of course, of immense consequence to both horses' connections and punters alike. Since working his way through the Turf Club's handicapping ranks to assume his current position in 1995, the Kildare man is ultimately responsible for the formation of every handicap hurdle or chase run in Ireland.
Next week, he will be on duty at Cheltenham, where part of his brief will be the patriotic duty of continuing to canvass on behalf of the travelling Irish horses. Despite there being an Anglo-Irish classification agreement between the handicapping departments on either side of the Irish Sea for the past seven years, relations are strained.
Disparities
In short, horses rated 140 or above compete off the same mark in England or Ireland (with the exception of the Aintree Grand National), but massive disparities arise in relation to horses outside the classification, with Irish horses being asked to run off disproportionably high ratings. Francis Flood's P'Tit Fute, for example, has been allocated a mark 20lbs higher than his Irish rating in Wednesday's Coral Cup, and 17lbs higher in Thursday's Pertemps Final.
Handicapping, through its subjective nature, is an inexact science, and the cause of the aggrieved Irish is not helped by the solid performances of so many of our horses, with our representatives winning 9pc of the handicaps at Cheltenham in the past four years. The English handicapper, Phil Smith, points to our impressive recent record of six winners if the last 10 Aintree Grand Nationals as further evidence of the fairness of his system.
O'Brien, however, challenges Smith's seemingly arbitrary methods.
"People say our horses cannot be badly treated in England because our horses do well over there, but the last two-mile handicap hurdle winner we had in the UK was in October, and the last two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle winner we had was in July," he reaons.
" Since the October win, there have been 85 runners, so to say that we're well treated is not borne out by stats like that.
"We have to put this into context, too. Phil's term coincided with this infamous 'Celtic Tiger', when so many of the Irish horses were being kept in the country. We weren't just winning handicaps in England, we were winning Gold Cups, Champion Chases and Champion Hurdles as well.
"Most of our horses have been hard done by next week, and the main problem is that owners and trainers have no idea how they will be treated. After the classification, what I have suggested is a sliding scale, whereby horses from 130 to 139 would carry 1lb more in England, those rated 120 to 129 would carry 2lbs more, and so on.
Competitive
"Naturally, because our racing is so much more competitive, particularly at the bottom end, the further down you go the more you would expect to be penalised in England.
"We have suggested that they come up with their own scale based on what has happened in the UK -- nothing to do with us.
"They would study what they have done with the ratings and how horses have performed, and decide on a suitable, transparent scale.
"We're in discussions at the moment and I would consider Phil Smith a friend of mine but, professionally, he has a job to do and looking after the interests of Irish horses isn't high on the list."
Racegoers in Cheltenham next week will see for themselves if O'Brien's hypothesis about Irish horses being badly handicapped in England is correct. At least, punters now travel well warned.
(© Richard Forristal) Happy Tony
10s now.....
God I'm glad I took the 20/1 when I saw Betfair had suspended!
God I'm glad I took the 20/1 when I saw Betfair had suspended!
OUT NOW...........which one do you want 1st ?
Catch Me ifyoucan 22 Feb 12 07:58
Tks PA,
Thread on "Antepost" fyi
THANKS AGAIN pa
Tks PA,
Thread on "Antepost" fyi
THANKS AGAIN pa
The handicaps might close but that doesn't stop connections from taking up multiple entries, handicaps and non handicaps.
Taking an antepost stand is fraught with danger unless you're the beneficiary of inside information.
Trainers will keep the public hanging on their coat tails right to the last minute before eventually declaring X horse for X race.
Personally I think all Cheltenham final declarations should close at least 3 weeks before the festival begins, that would be doing it right, but pleasing the punter at large is not exactly top of the agenda.
Taking an antepost stand is fraught with danger unless you're the beneficiary of inside information.
Trainers will keep the public hanging on their coat tails right to the last minute before eventually declaring X horse for X race.
Personally I think all Cheltenham final declarations should close at least 3 weeks before the festival begins, that would be doing it right, but pleasing the punter at large is not exactly top of the agenda.
And THANK YOU Catch me,
,a nice little addendum on the RA Thread, as a few had him in the comp when he won at Pun.Won with a bit in hand today,jumping could have been a bit better.Welcome change of luck for me.
On the main subject thought Hunt ball jumped and travelled well and won easily,entered in a few at Cheltenham think he would have a fair ew chance if going on the first day
,a nice little addendum on the RA Thread, as a few had him in the comp when he won at Pun.Won with a bit in hand today,jumping could have been a bit better.Welcome change of luck for me.On the main subject thought Hunt ball jumped and travelled well and won easily,entered in a few at Cheltenham think he would have a fair ew chance if going on the first day
HUNT BALL
Tue, 13th Mar Cheltenham 5.15 Pulteney Land Investments Novices` Handicap Chase (Grade 2)
Thu, 15th Mar Cheltenham 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
Presume BJG keeps the ride (IF HE WANTS IT - we will be watchin' out for that
) after his win today.
Tue, 13th Mar Cheltenham 5.15 Pulteney Land Investments Novices` Handicap Chase (Grade 2)
Thu, 15th Mar Cheltenham 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
Presume BJG keeps the ride (IF HE WANTS IT - we will be watchin' out for that
) after his win today.
"Personally I think all Cheltenham final declarations should close at least 3 weeks before the festival begins, that would be doing it right, but pleasing the punter at large is not exactly top of the agenda"
Thats possibly the most mental statement I've ever seen and one so fraught with problems that it doesn't even warrant consideration.
Thats possibly the most mental statement I've ever seen and one so fraught with problems that it doesn't even warrant consideration.
I think if I said white was white duck you'd disagree with me.
Can you please elaborate as to the problems you suggest, fraught even?.
Nobody can now gate crash the Grand National field, and thats something like 8 weeks.
Can you please elaborate as to the problems you suggest, fraught even?.
Nobody can now gate crash the Grand National field, and thats something like 8 weeks.
You're gone silent duck after your unprovoked attack, I'm still waiting.
How about bookmakers been able to make at least a half decent book weeks before instead of some horses been priced up in 5 different races?, gives the punter at least a bit of security, how can that be a bad thing?.
How about bookmakers been able to make at least a half decent book weeks before instead of some horses been priced up in 5 different races?, gives the punter at least a bit of security, how can that be a bad thing?.
Final declarations at 3 weeks....
How do you account for a horse who might want soft ground over 2 and a half miles and 3 miles on good ground?What race do you declare him for?
Or the horse who may win an Imperial Cup and had been totally out of form at your declaration stage?
How much do you fine trainers for the injured horse who is a non runner?
Pretty intelligent suggestion I'd say
How do you account for a horse who might want soft ground over 2 and a half miles and 3 miles on good ground?What race do you declare him for?
Or the horse who may win an Imperial Cup and had been totally out of form at your declaration stage?
How much do you fine trainers for the injured horse who is a non runner?
Pretty intelligent suggestion I'd say
Nothing above makes any sense to me as regards refuting my argument, do the trainers who declare for any race know what type of ground they're going to get?.
You still have the natural unhinderd choice of declaring the horse a non runner, nobody puts a gun to your head!.
As for trip?, I think the trainer knows damn well what their horses prefered trip is.
Because they leave the final declaration right to the last minute it allows trainers to play cat and mouse with other while the punter is the slurped milk and the nibbled cheese.
You still have the natural unhinderd choice of declaring the horse a non runner, nobody puts a gun to your head!.
As for trip?, I think the trainer knows damn well what their horses prefered trip is.
Because they leave the final declaration right to the last minute it allows trainers to play cat and mouse with other while the punter is the slurped milk and the nibbled cheese.
Think your reasoning is getting even more bizarre.
What is to stop a trainer declaring a horse for 4 races over the festival?
How many reserves will be allowed at your final declaration stage?
Most importantly how is anyone going to cope with the multiple non runner scenario when it comes to the Rule 4?
What is to stop a trainer declaring a horse for 4 races over the festival?
How many reserves will be allowed at your final declaration stage?
Most importantly how is anyone going to cope with the multiple non runner scenario when it comes to the Rule 4?
Tolmi you're grasping at straws, we're talking about the Cheltenham festival here and everybody wants to be seen with a tri colour, scarf and leprecaun hat in tow.
If they thought for a minute they'd miss that possible photo opportunity than you'd bet your bottom Euro that the horse would be declared in an instance.
If they thought for a minute they'd miss that possible photo opportunity than you'd bet your bottom Euro that the horse would be declared in an instance.
Instaed of an absolutely nonsensical response you might address the points raised in my last post?
Why, because you were wrong?, thats my argument, if they had to pay for that final declaration?
Silver not everyone hangs around their computer 24/7. As for disagreeing with you am I not entitled to my opinion? Isn't that a line your fond of yourself?
Your Grand National point is totally irrelevant as that is one race and not a case of where horses may be suitable for possibly four or five races at the same meeting. It's also only the entry stage not declarations which you are talking about. Grasping at straws some might say.
Anyway it doesn't take much thinking to realise that 3 week declarations don't make sense. One simple example is Grand Crus. Why should connections have to make up their mind now fully three weeks before the Gold Cup. Thats an enormous time-span with horses. Anything could happen LR or KS and this would definitely lean on their decision. Another is in the case of big owners such as Gigginstown House who have contenders based with various trainers. An issue with one horse could affect the running plans with another horse in another stable. In addition the weights aren't even out for the handicaps yet. This is obviously going to influence running plans.
Now if you suggested that trainers should make preferential choices in the week before the Festival about their plans to inform punters then that would be one thing, However I don't need my hand held when taking the chance of Antepost punting and I don't think any other reasonable person is expecting declarations handed to them three weeks before the meeting.
Your Grand National point is totally irrelevant as that is one race and not a case of where horses may be suitable for possibly four or five races at the same meeting. It's also only the entry stage not declarations which you are talking about. Grasping at straws some might say.
Anyway it doesn't take much thinking to realise that 3 week declarations don't make sense. One simple example is Grand Crus. Why should connections have to make up their mind now fully three weeks before the Gold Cup. Thats an enormous time-span with horses. Anything could happen LR or KS and this would definitely lean on their decision. Another is in the case of big owners such as Gigginstown House who have contenders based with various trainers. An issue with one horse could affect the running plans with another horse in another stable. In addition the weights aren't even out for the handicaps yet. This is obviously going to influence running plans.
Now if you suggested that trainers should make preferential choices in the week before the Festival about their plans to inform punters then that would be one thing, However I don't need my hand held when taking the chance of Antepost punting and I don't think any other reasonable person is expecting declarations handed to them three weeks before the meeting.
Because I was wrong?You totally ignore the questions I raised and then say I was wrong??You are clearly delusional.
Of course you're entitled to your opinion duck, did you not attack me without as much as a cogent argument to the contrary?.
That besides, isn't what you are arguing for all anti punter?.
Trainers know damn well what race they're going for and will only make a last minute switch if another trainer does likewise.
What side are you and Tolmi on?, or is it anything I say that makes sense doesn't make sense just for the sake of it?
That besides, isn't what you are arguing for all anti punter?.
Trainers know damn well what race they're going for and will only make a last minute switch if another trainer does likewise.
What side are you and Tolmi on?, or is it anything I say that makes sense doesn't make sense just for the sake of it?
No silver it's because what you say doesn't make sense to me and I'd wager it doesn't make much sense to most average punters.
I also didn't attack you. I strongly stated that a suggestion forwarded as reasonable by yourself was nonsensical and unworkable. Don't be so sensitive.
Of course i'm not anti-punter as I am one but I certainly don't expect nor even want the declarations for cheltenham now. I can generally work them out for the most part by now anyway but theres no reason to cast anything in stone until the alloted dates.
Given the plethora of races now it's quite likely that while trainers have reasonable thoughts on their runners the people that will be saddling double figure numbers won't have all their targets nailed down. Variables such as weight, ground and jockey availability will all play their part when final decs are being made.
I doubt i'll be making another reply because it's impossible to talk reason with you and we'd end up going round in circles.
I also didn't attack you. I strongly stated that a suggestion forwarded as reasonable by yourself was nonsensical and unworkable. Don't be so sensitive.
Of course i'm not anti-punter as I am one but I certainly don't expect nor even want the declarations for cheltenham now. I can generally work them out for the most part by now anyway but theres no reason to cast anything in stone until the alloted dates.
Given the plethora of races now it's quite likely that while trainers have reasonable thoughts on their runners the people that will be saddling double figure numbers won't have all their targets nailed down. Variables such as weight, ground and jockey availability will all play their part when final decs are being made.
I doubt i'll be making another reply because it's impossible to talk reason with you and we'd end up going round in circles.
If you tried to answer the points I raised you would see clearly what side I am on.
If you tried to answer the points I raised you would see clearly what side I am on.
I thought I was talking reason, I'm putting a huge argument forward that would benefit the betting pubic no end.
Your argument is trainer driven, why should they have the last say and the mouth that feeds is left in limbo wondering?.
By closing off the final declarations forces a trainers hand, why should they be allowed to play cat and mouse with the public at probably the greatest betting event in horse racing?.
They've the whole damn year to make up their minds but as things stand they're still allowed to treat the punter with the utmost disrespect right up to nearly the very beginning of the festival itself, I don't know about you but there is something incredibly wrong?, considering that 60 thousand punters on average will populate Prestbury Park every day and lord knows how many millions wagered outside?.
Why should it be all about owners and trainers because without those 60 thousand people they are but nothing!?
Your argument is trainer driven, why should they have the last say and the mouth that feeds is left in limbo wondering?.
By closing off the final declarations forces a trainers hand, why should they be allowed to play cat and mouse with the public at probably the greatest betting event in horse racing?.
They've the whole damn year to make up their minds but as things stand they're still allowed to treat the punter with the utmost disrespect right up to nearly the very beginning of the festival itself, I don't know about you but there is something incredibly wrong?, considering that 60 thousand punters on average will populate Prestbury Park every day and lord knows how many millions wagered outside?.
Why should it be all about owners and trainers because without those 60 thousand people they are but nothing!?
For a man to say that it would benefit the betting public and not be able to answer simple questions about reserves and Rule 4s beggars belief.
Seeing as you ignored those questions how about answering this one...A big trainer at your so called final declaration stage declares a horse rated 170.His primary fancy is rated 147 and is one of only 6 in the handicap proper.His 170 horse becomes "lame" before the race.Do the weights rise or not and at what stage do they rise if you think they should.
As far as I can see you have put up no argument at all so far.
Seeing as you ignored those questions how about answering this one...A big trainer at your so called final declaration stage declares a horse rated 170.His primary fancy is rated 147 and is one of only 6 in the handicap proper.His 170 horse becomes "lame" before the race.Do the weights rise or not and at what stage do they rise if you think they should.
As far as I can see you have put up no argument at all so far.
Considering that £2000 has been bet on the first days handicap with the worlds biggest betting exchange and in all honesty probably next to nothing with the books at this stage surely a moot point.
NRNB not far away with some books, might be 5 day decs with the bigger boys,not sure,but surely the onus would be on the punter to get a run.(most punters have moved on from the dinosaur age)
NRNB not far away with some books, might be 5 day decs with the bigger boys,not sure,but surely the onus would be on the punter to get a run.(most punters have moved on from the dinosaur age)
Fine one last post.
Of the sixty thousand people there and the rest at home 7/10 will not know a horses hole from it's head. Most of them will have never heard of the horses that are running in front of then before the day. The overnight declarations will suit them just fine. As for the rest of the punters that are actual racing fans they will have been studying the pertinent horses and races throughout the season and will have ample time to formulate opinions in the run up to the meeting. I know pretty much the race where every horse that I might fancy is running in already just from deploying a little bit of nous and logic.
The way your talking it's like punters are being deprived of information by connections when in reality it's not hard to surmise racing plans from their entries and form in addition to other stable entries. If it's bothering you that much then make a point and ignore the Festival. Theres no-one forcing you to bet on it. I guarantee if you asked the 60 thousand that will be there if they wanted the declarations three weeks beforehand then you would get apathetic answers for the most part as they don't care as long as theres horses in front of them on the day.
Of the sixty thousand people there and the rest at home 7/10 will not know a horses hole from it's head. Most of them will have never heard of the horses that are running in front of then before the day. The overnight declarations will suit them just fine. As for the rest of the punters that are actual racing fans they will have been studying the pertinent horses and races throughout the season and will have ample time to formulate opinions in the run up to the meeting. I know pretty much the race where every horse that I might fancy is running in already just from deploying a little bit of nous and logic.
The way your talking it's like punters are being deprived of information by connections when in reality it's not hard to surmise racing plans from their entries and form in addition to other stable entries. If it's bothering you that much then make a point and ignore the Festival. Theres no-one forcing you to bet on it. I guarantee if you asked the 60 thousand that will be there if they wanted the declarations three weeks beforehand then you would get apathetic answers for the most part as they don't care as long as theres horses in front of them on the day.
Duck apathy has nothing to do with it, yes I'm well aware that most will just back on the day, myself I'm not a regular antepost backer, but I do like to dabble on the Cheltenham festival.
Why shouldn't I?, but the situation has been the same as it ever was, trainers leaving you sweating because the insiders haven't got enough on, yeh the race they know damn well the horse was going for 6 months earlier, but put out little snippets to the most naive media that ever existed and they bite everytime?
Why shouldn't I?, but the situation has been the same as it ever was, trainers leaving you sweating because the insiders haven't got enough on, yeh the race they know damn well the horse was going for 6 months earlier, but put out little snippets to the most naive media that ever existed and they bite everytime?
I think part of Silvergreasers argument is that someone in the know is going to lay a non runner here.I know the RSA and Gold Cup are not handicaps but Grand Crus is prominent in the betting in both races,now when David Pipe finally makes up his mind someone close to the stable will do a bit of judicious laying.I accept that this is reality and the way it is but it is unfair.
Exactly wildman as things stand stand they can take the p!ss, force their hand and we'd have a much more lucid Cheltenham Festival.
Silver you must think the average person is very stupid.
I agree Wildman that there is potential for skullduggery of sorts where someone knows that a horse won't be running but they are rare enough occurances. The only two relevant horse this year are Grands Crus and Boston Bob and I genuinely believe that Willie isn't 100% certain where BB will run (though I'd suggest the 2m5f is much more likely as it's the higher prestige race). As for GC Pipe would rather go RSA (though if he were mine i'd be pushing for the Jewson) but the allure of a Gold Cup is hard to dismiss with still three weeks to go.
I agree Wildman that there is potential for skullduggery of sorts where someone knows that a horse won't be running but they are rare enough occurances. The only two relevant horse this year are Grands Crus and Boston Bob and I genuinely believe that Willie isn't 100% certain where BB will run (though I'd suggest the 2m5f is much more likely as it's the higher prestige race). As for GC Pipe would rather go RSA (though if he were mine i'd be pushing for the Jewson) but the allure of a Gold Cup is hard to dismiss with still three weeks to go.
The first Sligo trained horse since the early 80's will run at Cheltenham this year, when Dooney's Rock will represent Michael McElhone
I should have stuck with my 22.19 post as you clearly have no clue as to how your 3 week system would cope with some perfectly simple scenarios.
Jesus I'm starting to tear my hair out. how effing hard is it to force effing trainers to play their hand, instead of you hearing the Sunday before Cheltenham this horse might go for this or might go for that?
Simple bring forward the declarations, problem solved in an instant!
I effing give up!!!
Simple bring forward the declarations, problem solved in an instant!
I effing give up!!!
No one can see the future silvergreaser,a 2 1/2m horse might be 2m on heavy(Tolmi,s point),wildman agree with your point that people profit unethically with first hand info.
Tolmi, I think I adressed your question, it costs a hell of a lot more money to declare a horse than to enter, so I think I've answered your question ten fold by now and thats not been smart.
I'll try to simplify it for you so.
How does your system deal with
1.Reserves
2.Rule 4s
3.Weight rises
You might find that in none of your answers have you mentioned any of the above.If you fail to answer this time I can only assume it is because you do not have an answer.
How does your system deal with
1.Reserves
2.Rule 4s
3.Weight rises
You might find that in none of your answers have you mentioned any of the above.If you fail to answer this time I can only assume it is because you do not have an answer.
Its already there?
the exact same as how the grand national works.
The race is already closed, and if a non runner happens the same as it ever was?
the exact same as how the grand national works.
The race is already closed, and if a non runner happens the same as it ever was?
The Grand National closes 48 hours before the race.Your system of 3 weeks would result in 12/15 non runners per race so you will end up with half the proper field size.
A truly great solution!!
A truly great solution!!
No it wouldn't, you'd end up with an honest field, instead of some dishonest trainer telling me he might go for this or he might go for that and he knew all along exactly what race he was going for.
tolmi I'm not on here to make enemies or friends I give an opinion, please don't take my opinion personal.
tolmi I'm not on here to make enemies or friends I give an opinion, please don't take my opinion personal.
Of course you would end up with a ton of nonrunners silver which would render your earlier point about bookies being able to make a half decent book weeks beforehand invalid as they'd have to reprice the race almost from scratch each day should multiply declared horses have already ran. This would in fact result in punters probably not deciding to bet at all until the day of the race.
how would we have non runners 3 weeks before? if they're compelled to declare, they're either in or they're out?
I don't think you understand what you are suggesting.The large owners would simply instruct their trainer to multiple declare their horses and decide where they want to run closer the day.Your system would be rendered totally unworkable as big owner would be able to afford the loss of the entry fee.
No as I stated clearly there would be non runners as there would be multiple declarations three weeks beforehand and horses would only be taking up one engagement. You agreed yourself earlier that trainers would "have the natural unhinderd choice of declaring the horse a non runner". Can you imagine the likes of the boys race with over a hundred entries and having to declare today. The race would be chaos. The more I consider your suggestion the more it sounds totally and utterly ridiculous, no offence.
Bullsh!t duck, if they knew they had a certain time to declare all your and tolmi arguments are null and void.
Why oh why do you keep coming back?
Why oh why do you keep coming back?
So you are going back on what you said previously and are now saying that trainers would only declare horses for one race?
Basically I'm effing sick of these **** dictating my money,
Why should I except inept regulation when the the likes of Ruby Walsh gets rich off me and a million other fools?
Why should I except inept regulation when the the likes of Ruby Walsh gets rich off me and a million other fools?
I'll repeat the question in case you missed it the first time around: So you are going back on what you said previously and are now saying that trainers would only declare horses for one race?
While i'm at it could you answer Tolmi's questions about how the shore of nonrunners that would (in my view inevitably) occur from three weeks decs would affect:
1) Reserves (i.e. How many would you have, surely you'd need a dozen per race just to be safe)
2) Rule 4's
3) Weight rises (Do they rise or stay still?)
If you'd give a response before The Green Mile is over i'd be much obliged. Shouldn't take you long since you've given so much time coming up with this as a reasonable solution to the perils of antepost punting.
While i'm at it could you answer Tolmi's questions about how the shore of nonrunners that would (in my view inevitably) occur from three weeks decs would affect:
1) Reserves (i.e. How many would you have, surely you'd need a dozen per race just to be safe)
2) Rule 4's
3) Weight rises (Do they rise or stay still?)
If you'd give a response before The Green Mile is over i'd be much obliged. Shouldn't take you long since you've given so much time coming up with this as a reasonable solution to the perils of antepost punting.
How can you have non runners when your already declared?
You pay heavy money to be declared does that not answer that question?, not exactly going to be a rush of non runners when you paid the final declaration price now is there?, common sense!
Weight rises like the grand national if one comes out the weights, not exactly rocket science?
Rule 4 only works on real life bets not antepost?
You pay heavy money to be declared does that not answer that question?, not exactly going to be a rush of non runners when you paid the final declaration price now is there?, common sense!
Weight rises like the grand national if one comes out the weights, not exactly rocket science?
Rule 4 only works on real life bets not antepost?
Does it not occur to you that a horse may get hurt or the ground may be inappropriate and the decision is made to withdraw following it's declaration three weeks beforehand. You'd surely have to have reserves to ensure full fields.
The declaration fee isn't going to affect most affable owners. Your talking a couple of grand at most for the likes of the Gold Cup and much less for the handicaps. Theres 193 entries in the boys race. At least half of them will hold at least one other entry. If only a quarter of the entries in the race are doubly declared to give more options (not an unlikely scenario) then you have serious issues.
When I refer to weights I am also referring to penalties. Do they apply after the decs? Are they fixed or subject to handicapper discretion if they do apply?
Do they not become subject to Rule 4 after the declaration stage?
The declaration fee isn't going to affect most affable owners. Your talking a couple of grand at most for the likes of the Gold Cup and much less for the handicaps. Theres 193 entries in the boys race. At least half of them will hold at least one other entry. If only a quarter of the entries in the race are doubly declared to give more options (not an unlikely scenario) then you have serious issues.
When I refer to weights I am also referring to penalties. Do they apply after the decs? Are they fixed or subject to handicapper discretion if they do apply?
Do they not become subject to Rule 4 after the declaration stage?
We can argue till the cows come home, but I'm arguing a point that is hard to disprove, make a 3 week final declaration for the festival, rids us of the trainer subterfuge, how hard is that?, doesn't it make perfect sense? but Patrick is a target!.
A pojnt thats hard to disprove yet you've struggled to answer various questions put to you in a reasonable manner. Yeah right. It may make perfect sense to you but to does of us that live in the real world it is an idea only the civil service could come up with. And no you are not a target. You are much too insignificant to be bothered about. I just find it hard to credit an idea such as this. It really does defy all sorts of sound rationale. Good Night.
Duck I made my points,in a reasonable manner??/
I never and will never be an ****, I threw my argument to the wind, fight it or wilt under commen sense?
How hard is that, sometimes you have to admit defeat?
I never and will never be an ****, I threw my argument to the wind, fight it or wilt under commen sense?
How hard is that, sometimes you have to admit defeat?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Jt1hDXVfNk&feature=related
You talk about common sense while it is abundantly clear that it is you yhat is lacling in it.
I. "you pay heavy money to be declared"...This will only suit the owner with deep pockets as the small man will be afraid to declare a horse in case he gets injured and he loses his money
2.The whole issue about the Rule 4 though is what undermines your point totally.You want final declarations at a 3 weeks stage to introduce clarity for betting purposes.Yet in your reply to Allduck you say there will be no Rule 4 as the are ante post bets.Even in a perfect world some well fancied horses will get injured or just be off colour.In your scheme anyone who backs these will lose their money.So in reality for betting purposes there will be no change.
The worrying thing for your sake about this thread is that despite the number of valid points being put to you about how unworkable your theory is you still cannot grasp that it is absolute lunacy.On two occasions you seem to claim "victory" yet all you have done is dig a further hole for yourself.I should have stuck to my original statement about wasting my time.
I. "you pay heavy money to be declared"...This will only suit the owner with deep pockets as the small man will be afraid to declare a horse in case he gets injured and he loses his money
2.The whole issue about the Rule 4 though is what undermines your point totally.You want final declarations at a 3 weeks stage to introduce clarity for betting purposes.Yet in your reply to Allduck you say there will be no Rule 4 as the are ante post bets.Even in a perfect world some well fancied horses will get injured or just be off colour.In your scheme anyone who backs these will lose their money.So in reality for betting purposes there will be no change.
The worrying thing for your sake about this thread is that despite the number of valid points being put to you about how unworkable your theory is you still cannot grasp that it is absolute lunacy.On two occasions you seem to claim "victory" yet all you have done is dig a further hole for yourself.I should have stuck to my original statement about wasting my time.
Looking back now Tolmi it's obvious enough that he was fishing. Has to be the only explanation. Theres no-one that could just patently ignore the obvious issues and claim it would give clarity when in fact the opposite would inevitably occur. We were bigger fools for getting involved.
Jaysus lads he caught the pair of ye there.....hook line and sinker.
I know gant I know. Assumed he was putting it out there just to get a response when he first posted. If it was anyone else i'd have hardly even posted as it's so illogical that it can only be fishing. The fact that this fella has previous just got me wondering for a bit. Looking at it now though theres no way in the wide world that even he could believe it. Well played silver.
I was not fishing at all, I was damn serious and I'll stick to my guns, I never say anything I don't believe in, agree with me or disagree, I'll at least offer you the courtesy of an opinion without recourse to juvenile insults whether I with you or not!.
You never once put up a plausible alternative duck, its quite obvious you have insider connections, thats the only thing that can explain why you could find something wrong with early closing of Cheltenham races, its all trainer friendly, the way I look at it, you're either going to Cheltenham or you're not, as I said, millions is/are bet on this meeting up and down Britain and Ireland why shouldn't the punter at least be afforded the comfort of clarity instead of been left in the dark until the trainer eventually makes up his mind at the very last minute.
Hypothetical situation: Quevega gets injured on the w/end before the mares race and is out of the festival, what would Colm Murphy do with Voler La Vedette?, would he still stick to the original plan of the World hurdle or make a dramatic late switch to the mares race?, almost certainly, why wouldn't you take up the option of a penalty kick?, so anyone who say backed her without Big Bucks or ew for the World hurdle can kiss their ass goodbye.
You never once put up a plausible alternative duck, its quite obvious you have insider connections, thats the only thing that can explain why you could find something wrong with early closing of Cheltenham races, its all trainer friendly, the way I look at it, you're either going to Cheltenham or you're not, as I said, millions is/are bet on this meeting up and down Britain and Ireland why shouldn't the punter at least be afforded the comfort of clarity instead of been left in the dark until the trainer eventually makes up his mind at the very last minute.
Hypothetical situation: Quevega gets injured on the w/end before the mares race and is out of the festival, what would Colm Murphy do with Voler La Vedette?, would he still stick to the original plan of the World hurdle or make a dramatic late switch to the mares race?, almost certainly, why wouldn't you take up the option of a penalty kick?, so anyone who say backed her without Big Bucks or ew for the World hurdle can kiss their ass goodbye.
I actually thought he must be fishing as well but when I went back over his posts on other threads I realised he was serious.In my naivety I thought that he would be able to listen to some reasonable logic but such a fool was I.
Tolmi you put up rule 4 naively, rule 4 is non existent in antepost betting, you take your chances, you might get a pearler of a price and be able to lay off for a profit or you might unfortunately back a non runner, tough sh!t!.
So at least tell me where I'm wrong?, well at least give me a convincing argument as to why the Cheltenham races should remain open right up to the Sunday before the festival apart from trainers playing cat and mouse?.
So at least tell me where I'm wrong?, well at least give me a convincing argument as to why the Cheltenham races should remain open right up to the Sunday before the festival apart from trainers playing cat and mouse?.
Silver your suggestion removes antepost betting rules three weeks before the race. Do you not realise that? Therefore Rule 4 most definitely applies. Or are you saying that antepost rules would continue even after declarations.
Look at your VLV/Quevega theory as an example. If Colm Murphy had to declare today then he would obviously declare VDV twice for the Mares and the World Hurdle. She would be about 4's for the former and 16's for the latter. Quevega is around 4/5 for the mares. If she didn't run and VDV took up her Mares engagement then because the declarations were already made then there would be 55c deduction in all bets struck on VDV following the decs three weeks previously.
You really don't seem to understand that Antepost betting would become redundant and due to Rule 4's punters would be much better off waiting for new markets to form on the day. You cannot, and I repeat cannot, apply antepost rules following the declaration stage.
I hope that makes things clearer for you.
Look at your VLV/Quevega theory as an example. If Colm Murphy had to declare today then he would obviously declare VDV twice for the Mares and the World Hurdle. She would be about 4's for the former and 16's for the latter. Quevega is around 4/5 for the mares. If she didn't run and VDV took up her Mares engagement then because the declarations were already made then there would be 55c deduction in all bets struck on VDV following the decs three weeks previously.
You really don't seem to understand that Antepost betting would become redundant and due to Rule 4's punters would be much better off waiting for new markets to form on the day. You cannot, and I repeat cannot, apply antepost rules following the declaration stage.
I hope that makes things clearer for you.
Naively
It might have escaped your notice that a Rule 4 applies after final declarations which in your case is 3 weeks before the event.Except that you have decided that in your world bets after final declarations are ante post.You could nt make it up.
I wont waste any more time with you.
It might have escaped your notice that a Rule 4 applies after final declarations which in your case is 3 weeks before the event.Except that you have decided that in your world bets after final declarations are ante post.You could nt make it up.
I wont waste any more time with you.
Duck, whats the problem?, the antepost book is closed and you now have a fairly genuine book and at least some clarity, rule 4 applies, I think every punter is aware of the pitfalls that rule 4 represents, but try saying that to some betting shop staff who get used and abused for doing their job because the rules state your bet gets a R4 deducton.
Lets just say Hurricane Fly injures himself going to post and is withdrawn?, does it make any difference if its 3 weeks or 2 minutes?.
Some owners can afford to pay multiple final declaration fees but other smaller owners can't, thats the law of the land.
Lets just say Hurricane Fly injures himself going to post and is withdrawn?, does it make any difference if its 3 weeks or 2 minutes?.
Some owners can afford to pay multiple final declaration fees but other smaller owners can't, thats the law of the land.
So now your saying Rule 4 does apply but it's impact would be negligible? That's fairly changing you tune.
If the decs had to be made this weekend there would be at the very least forty or fifty horses with multiple declarations for a variety of races especially the handicaps. This would result in significant non runners causing significant Rule 4's and markets being reformed as horses take up alternatives and new horses join the fields from the reserves. You couldn't have a bet until the day with your system. Punters would be much better off waiting for the day itself when runners are fully finalised and proper markets are formed.
I'll tell you what we are wasting our time arguing with you because you have a fundemental lack of understanding of what you are talking about. Good luck.
If the decs had to be made this weekend there would be at the very least forty or fifty horses with multiple declarations for a variety of races especially the handicaps. This would result in significant non runners causing significant Rule 4's and markets being reformed as horses take up alternatives and new horses join the fields from the reserves. You couldn't have a bet until the day with your system. Punters would be much better off waiting for the day itself when runners are fully finalised and proper markets are formed.
I'll tell you what we are wasting our time arguing with you because you have a fundemental lack of understanding of what you are talking about. Good luck.
Duck it seems you've a fundamental misunderstanding of what I'm talking about.
Declare!!!!!!!!!!!!
And everybody knows what handicap X is going for, bet with at least a modicum of comfort.
Jesus!!!!!
Declare!!!!!!!!!!!!
And everybody knows what handicap X is going for, bet with at least a modicum of comfort.
Jesus!!!!!
Bet 364 nrnb handicaps n all at Cheltenham Silvergreaser,,didn,t really take long since the entries came out the other day,did it?
BJG
21 Feb 12 13:52
Joined:
20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 23,506 | Blogger: BJG's blog
Salut Flo the current one thats a massive price at 20s, had a nibble for the Byrne Group Plate but i see Pipey said it would be entered for everything! Was hackin lto till makin a horrid mistake and stoppin to a walk wen havin most of the field under pressure at Chelt! Will be off the same mark and must be of massive interest wherever he turns up(hopefully the plate!)and wont be 20s on the day
I love it wen a plan comes together
gtfi
21 Feb 12 13:52
Joined:
20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 23,506 | Blogger: BJG's blog
Salut Flo the current one thats a massive price at 20s, had a nibble for the Byrne Group Plate but i see Pipey said it would be entered for everything! Was hackin lto till makin a horrid mistake and stoppin to a walk wen havin most of the field under pressure at Chelt! Will be off the same mark and must be of massive interest wherever he turns up(hopefully the plate!)and wont be 20s on the day
I love it wen a plan comes together
gtfi
^^^ is there cream in your pants???? hate admitting it but good ride from Tom Scu! horse was well fit
Well done to both BJG (Salut Flo) and Pa Lapsy (Hunt Ball), who seemed to be the only 2 forumites on this thread interested in actually picking out a plot horse. Hope ye cleaned up lads
BJG and Pa Lapsy both tip up big price winners well in advance,nothing new there.
OH no BJG called David Pipe Pipey Wildman, you must be raging
Your baby talk is constant and is why you are known as the Thrush,BJG is a consistent poster of winners and his posts are generally thought provoking and well worth reading.
You hardly address a friend in a formal way?I don't maybe you don't have any friends.
That last post makes less sense than your usual inane offerings.
rocketfingers,im delighted that wildbore is stalking u on every thread u make.........he might now stop stalking me on the horse forum,rather creepy the way he keeps doing it
Never give up, i don't mind him stalking me if it gives you a break, i have seen this myself it's very sad. He gets very angry and frustrated when he sees others winning. I don't mind when he lets some steam off at me, i regularly help the less fortunate when i'm not on the forum.
Thanks very much Mc Kenna,having a poor enough Cheltenham but would have been a blackout except for him.Very well done Bjg knew what you were saying after looking at the pp again,jumped well today and easy winner.
To even things up i like to battle in Germanic style on many fronts,Rocketfingers and Never Give Up defeat themselves but this Allduckornodinner is made of sterner stuff.
Too much time watching the history channel not enough time watching RUK or ATR me thinks for Wildclown.
Mar 15, 2012 -- 11:51PM, Rocketfingers wrote:
Never give up, i don't mind him stalking me if it gives you a break, i have seen this myself it's very sad. He gets very angry and frustrated when he sees others winning. I don't mind when he lets some steam off at me, i regularly help the less fortunate when i'm not on the forum.
thanks
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