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RoyalAcademy
30 Nov 11 22:32
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 1,353 | Blogger: RoyalAcademy's blog
I ran something similar on another forum but asked too much of myself by nominating so many horses and I simply had to give it up for lack of time. Viaduct Joey and Run With The Wind winning at Listowel in September were the highlights of that last effort.

I will nominate a more manageable list of horses here that I am following from last year's point-to-point season with a view to recommending them as decent investments when I think the time is right. I know there are experts here with a greater knowledge than myself in this sphere so if it doesn't cut the mustard it will soon fall off the front page.

I'll also challenge myself to keep an account of the P&L. Bets will be from 1-5 points in time.

Feel free to contribute.

Endofdiscusion (Paul Webber)

Thursday 1st December 2011: Leicster 3.10pm 2m4f110yds 4+ maiden hurdle 11-00 Dominic Elsworth


Out In The Sun, an American-bred mare by It’s Freezing, was a two-time flat winner (9f on soft ground) back in the mid-90’s for Tony Mullins and his long-time patron Annette Mee and they’ve had good fun with her dual-purpose progeny ever since. She has bred four winners the best of which were Aquila Oculus (flat winner & won three 2m hurdles), Summer Break (flat winner & won two 2m hurdles) and Piercing Sun (bumper/hurdle/flat/chase winner). Fake Tan (2000 Eagle Eyed mare) is a full sister to Aquila Oculus and Piercing Sun but she was a low-grade handicapper who was never placed in 8 runs on the flat and never tried over hurdles. She was covered by Iron Mask in 2005 and sold in foal the following February for €12,000. This colt never ran.

The horse I am interested in is her second foal, the grammatically-challenged Endofdiscusion, a 2007 gelding by Flemensfirth, who cost Sean Doyle €15,500 at the 2010 Derby Sale (cost €25,000 as a foal) and ran in 2 point-to-points last April before joining Paul Webber for £30,000 from the Doncaster May sale. The reason for this reasonable return on investment was his second run at Taylorstown (good-firm) where he unseated at the last when just overtaken by the eventual winner Call ‘Em Home (a little disappointing for Colin Bowe on his only subsequent start in a Kilbeggan bumper). Previous runnings of this maiden in 2009 and 2010 have seen two of the three winners win under rules with the third horse recently finishing second at Ascot.

Paul Webber said of him recently: “We bought him at Doncaster. He wasn’t on my list to look at because of his form but his vendor pulled him out and said I should look at him. He’s a shell of a horse but has ability, he would have won or been second in his point-to-point if he hadn’t unseated at the last. Very straightforward and is a staying horse in the making. Will run over hurdles at 2m4f when the ground eases a bit.”

Webber is having a reasonably good year and has trained three winners in November while Dominic Elsworth is also in form. Given the above comments it’s a little surprising to see him running on good-firm ground on Thursday. He was also recently described as a “real tough stayer in the making”.

He is taking on a hotpot of Henderson’s tomorrow and could easily place but I won’t be investing in many of these horses unless they have virtually every box ticked or they start at a price I regard as very decent value to overcome some known unknowns! I’m looking for a nice introductory run setting him up for a staying hurdle on soft ground in time.
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Report Allduckornodinner February 9, 2012 9:07 PM GMT
It was alluded to in that piece on Liz Lalor that she was more hopeful of getting on the scoreboard this weekend in Askeaton where two other mares with the Carrigeen prefix have excellent chances.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 10, 2012 2:17 PM GMT
DECALEC,

He's ON again over 3m tomarra Cool
Report RoyalAcademy February 10, 2012 7:11 PM GMT
Boss Croaker-2007 Craigsteel g (Robert Tyner)

A race that just since 2007 has produced Paul Kristian, Bensalem, Master Of The Hall, Marathon Leader, Crash, Carlicue, Ballyegan,  Please Talk and, last but not least, Marble House is worth taking special note of as all the foregoing track winners won various divisions of the 4yo maiden run at Dromahane run on New Year’s Eve.

This year it produced Ballybough Pat to win the first division and division two saw a very strong favourite in Pat Doyle’s Westaway who fell three from home but who has since won his maiden at Kilfeacle beating a horse (Cottiers Den)that has since won HIS maiden at Ballinaboola so the form looks very solid. Ballybough Pat changed hands recently at Brightwells for £38,000 and when I learn of his new trainer in England you’ll be the first to know!

The highest rated winner to come from the two divisions was Boss Croaker and he looks a very nice prospect for Robert Tyner and his owners who hail from Clonakilty. I cannot let the misnaming (by Corkmen!) of the horse go without comment as the real Boss Croker was a larger than life Corkman who made his name in Tammany Hall in New York and famously owned the 1907 Derby winner Orby.

A fifth foal (well bought as a 3yo for €6,000); only a half-sister has managed to appear in silks finishing third in a point. The dam (by Over The River-a noted stamina influence) was unraced but she is a half-sister to two useful Supreme Leader  winners in Oliver Sherwood’s bumper/2m3f-2m6f hurdle/chase winner Mount Sandel and Tom Mullin’s 2m hurdle/2m4f mares Listed chase winner Court Leader out of sister to high-class hurdler Mighty Mogul (87 Good Thyne g) who was a good two-miler for David Nicholson (won a Gerry Felden and Christmas hurdle) and two other jumps winners.

Naas (soft-heavy) 1.15pm 2m 4-5yo maiden hurdle 5, 11-12 Philip Enright

Tyner can train hurdlers to win at the first time of asking and Oscars Business and Whatwillwecallher are recent examples but the overall strike rate is just 6.5% or 5/77. The trainer jockey combination are 1 (One In A Milan) from 11 at Naas (two seconds) since 2006. The stats aren’t hugely encouraging but they do offer some prospects.

I expect that it will be about the market tomorrow in what overall doesn’t look a particularly strong maiden. The point-to-point people were impressed with his Dromahane win and he wouldn’t be the first maiden winner to surprise connections first-time-out on the track. If he had changed hands and was now plying his trade in England I think I'd be far more interested tomorrow.
Report RoyalAcademy February 11, 2012 12:14 PM GMT
17-Dec

Another favourite of mine, John Quinn's Moonlight Drive, ran way below expectations in the two and a half mile handicap hurdle, also at Haydock. I have no doubt he hated the ground. He was earmarked to go novice chasing earlier in the autumn and judging by the support for him today connections obviously feel he has a handicap mark (128-same as Our Island) that can be exploited on better ground.
21-Jan

Quinn also has charge of an ex-winning pointer in Moonlight Drive and this is another horse I have a lot of time for even though a recent run over hurdles needs a visit to the confessional.


Quinn on Moonlight Drive: This lad surprised me last season. I fell in love with him when I saw him at the Brightwells point-to-point to sale last year. However, I bought with a view to him being a long term project and he probably still is. Yet the speed he shows at home for a horse with his breeding is amazing. He won his novice hurdle at Wetherby from a well regarded horse in Trustan Times. We then ran him in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham and it was a case of asking too much from him too soon. He has strengthened nicely through the summer months and he will now go novice chasing. Big horse, big future.

Moonlight Drive (John Quinn) is declared for the 3m+ handicap hurdle at Musselburgh due off at 2.35pm. Admittedly, they have campaigned this horse a little strangely this season as after running well in his maiden beginners’ chase in November (the winner, Carpincho, has genuine Cheltenham ambitions) he was sent handicap hurdling in December and my guess is that he hated the heavy ground at Haydock and today’s good-soft should be far more to his liking. He’s been dropped 3lbs by the handicapper which can only help.

Quinn has a pretty decent 25% (7/28 & 6 placed) strike-rate at Musselburgh which suggests Moonlight Drive is no forlorn hope. He is fancied by connections and expected to bounce back. Although there are valid excuses for the horse the fact is he has pulled up on his last two hurdling starts and this isn’t guaranteed to make you rich taking odds of around 4/1. I would need something a little more wholesome and think there will be other days when confidence may have ebbed and the price is right.

Mister First has the kind of profile in the handicap chase today (2.55pm Naas soft-heavy) that I like. He has now run well in two consecutive handicap chases and was well-fancied on his last run at Down Royal just finding one too good on the day. He’s due his turn and should reward support on his next three runs. (I tend to follow a horse for three runs when they are coming into form and for three runs subsequently if they win in the meantime).

There's only small money around for Boss Croaker with any offers in double-digits disappearing but oftentimes it's impossible to judge if this has any significance. The on-course market should be more informative.
Report RoyalAcademy February 11, 2012 12:55 PM GMT
So many horses, so little time!

If we all had the choice of sisters-in-law I expect that there would be a lot of fractured marriages out there so a less risky wish might be for the dream brother-in-law-with apologies to readers of the fairer sex here. The Enniscorthy trainer, Shay Slevin, boasts the Master Of Ballydoyle as his brother-in-law and is training one of progeny from Aidan’s breeding company’s (Whisperview Trading) in the shape of the Hawk Wing 6yo Dylan Villen. When Dylan Villen won in Bennetsbridge last February it was the first point winner for his sire Hawk Wing. Public records don’t record if any filthy lucre changed hands when the horse moved home from Tipperary/Kilkenny to Wexford.

Coming initially from such august quarters one can expect that Dylan Villen to have a good pedigree and he doesn’t disappoint! He is a half-brother to four winners including three over jumps and the French family, tracing back to Allez France, is packed with speed with the dam being listed placed in France.

His grief-stricken point win (yielding-soft) stands up to reasonable scrutiny with the second and fourth managing to win maidens and the latter, Listen Boy, has shown decent placed form over hurdles for Nigel Twiston-Davies.

Dylan Villen had a spin in a bumper in late November finishing 5th of 11-beaten 15L-at 20/1. It now looks a good bumper with Eddie O’Grady’s Leopardstown bumper winner, The Way We Were, finishing second and Liz Doyle’s bumper/hurdle winner, Mini Vic, in sixth. Dylan Villen's run caught the eye of the Racing Post race-reader.

Naas (soft-heavy) 2.25pm 5+ 2m3f maiden hurdle 6, 11-12 P Enright

I think the back story to this horse is intriguing and it will be interesting to see how Slevin handles the horse. I am particularly interested in him today because Slevin is having a very good run with his pointing runners having trained two winners in recent weeks so his horses are in rude health. It’s a couple of years since Slevin trained a track winner but I suspect that Dylan Villen could improve that statistic before too long.

On an appropriate weekend I say: Vive La France!
Report kavvie February 11, 2012 1:27 PM GMT
the boss was out for i sighter id say!!
Report RoyalAcademy February 11, 2012 5:55 PM GMT
John Quinn had a bad day losing his hurdler in the juvenile event and seeing the well-fancied Moonlight Drive just fail to score in a bobbing finish to the handicap hurdle. As the trainer had said that the horse shows lots of speed at home it was surprising he was outsprinted on the home turn and when he eventually picked up looked certain to score jumping the last. Perhaps the almost two month break and tacky ground told against him. His best run and only win came at Wetherby and perhaps a more galloping track might suit on slightly better ground. He’s relatively unexposed and there’s surely a nice handicap in him.

Boss Croaker ran as if he hadn’t been out of his box for a month and was being coaxed along after a hurdle or two. I’d like to think his innate ability managed to see him finish the race. He was completely unfancied. I note that his sire, Craigsteel (first crop are 8yo’s) produces most of his winners from two to two-and-a-half miles on going descriptions that include “good”.

I was regretting not having a few speculative euro at 90 on Dylan Villen about half-a-mile from home in the other maiden hurdle but whereas he jumped upsides at the second last the distress signals were evident by then. It was a run that promised more and he remains very much of interest. His sire, Hawk Wing, has been banished to Korea of all places but he has produced jumps winners including Lethal Weapon.

Mister First won with his head in his chest and proved once again the value of experience in the hurly burly of handicaps. He’ll get a hefty penalty but looks as if he’ll win again.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl February 14, 2012 10:47 PM GMT
Are ye's all gone to the sun........or what..... 15.50 at Southwell Wednesday 15/02/20012, of some interest, with Baby Shine, Endofdiscussion, and Talkonthestreet all in opposition......this meet is expected to go ahead and we should be able to get the winner here if ther is anyone about ?
Report norn iron February 15, 2012 10:44 AM GMT
EW TALKINTHESTREET  FOR ME  REV4CAST BABY SHINE
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 15, 2012 3:15 PM GMT
It's A Gimme tooooooo
Report MCKENNA February 15, 2012 4:20 PM GMT
Oh dear,what was Elsworth trying to do there? Tried to go up the inside not once but twice-was he not aware of the rails ahead of him?
Report punchestown February 15, 2012 4:23 PM GMT
Very unlucky backers there,was ahead a half stride after the line.
Report yourlack February 15, 2012 6:41 PM GMT
Crycost me a packet the clown.
Report norn iron February 15, 2012 9:42 PM GMT
RA WHATS YOUR VIEWS ON THE BUMBER @NEWBURY FRI? THINK THIS VILAGE VIC COULD BE VERY GOOD BUT LOOKS BEST BUMPER OVER THERE SO FAR WITH LOADS GOOD PROSPECTS?
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 16, 2012 11:46 AM GMT
That 4th horse Thomas Crapper was no 50/1 shot (finished as good as Baby S.)
Report RoyalAcademy February 16, 2012 1:13 PM GMT
Leighinmohr-2007 g Catcher In The Rye (Ian Ferguson)

Musselburgh 4.45pm 2m 4-6yo bumper 5, 11-12 Derek O’Connor


Leighinmohr won the 4yo maiden at Bennettsbridge last February, a race that regularly produces track winners with Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, Tranquil Sea, being the jewel in the crown. Other recent, decent track performers were Ferris Bueller (very heavy sigh from author having missed 100/1+ when he won his maiden hurdle), Crannaghmore Mist and Banna Beach (for my man Seamus Neville).

This is how the point experts read the race: A very useful looking winner here who could progress into a top prospect. The form will be questioned by a mare with no allowance finishing so close in third but Western Kate (poor hurdler so far) must be respected on this evidence. The race was difficult to gauge accurately owing to the slow early pace and sprint late but runner up Rally The Troops (second on only start in Wincanton bumper for P Hobbs) is clearly very talented. Formidableoponent (bumper/hurdle winner for Noel Meade)and Balinroab(point winner and second in Southwell hurdle yesterday) looked set to get involved when brought down and Big Georgie (second in point on only subsequent run) encouraged also.{My comments are added between brackets so the race has a very strong feel to it).

Leighinmohr is half-brother to two Key Of Luck winners in Sally’s Dream-winner of bumper and 2m1f hurdle for M Hourigan-and Foxy Fred who won a bumper for Francis Flood out of a mare who was placed in three bumpers and who in turn is a half-sister to five winners. The grandam is the prolific dual-purpose mare Winning Nora. This is a pedigree that has been very good to owner/trainer Dennis Reddan and Leighinmohr comes from a long line of winners.

Trading currently at 5/2 (from 11/4) it is not hard to decipher the intentions of connections today with Derek O’Connor travelling over for the mount. Ordinarily I would be quite confident about his chances but there is no doubt that the favourite has run in a couple of decent bumpers and has that essential experience to help his cause. It would take one or the other to offer greater value before I would risk an involvement. Dutching both at combined odds of 2/5 isn't attractive either.
Report RoyalAcademy February 16, 2012 1:30 PM GMT
I smiled ruefully last night reading Ben Hutton in the Racing Post when his "punting high" was "I got in a bit of a huff with the game a week ago so haven't had a bet since."

Oftentimes it's said that a punter's winning streaks come in short, sharp bursts and I really should have been on watch following Carrigeen Lechuga's cracking win last week. Over the weekend I had studied various angles only to lose out to the weather so it was only half-heartedly I checked Sunday's runners when Hereford and Exeter were lost. My tracker returned six runners and included Glen Countess (winning at an amazing 7/2 at Southwell), Salsify 11/1 (won some lovely contests last season) and Martin's winner at 50/1. I'm not after-timing highlighting Benefficient but time and again the strategy of following these winning maidens throws up winners when the market least expects it. In order to get the price a lot of forgiving has to happen but it happens more regularly than one might expect. I regularly mention these monster prices and thanks to Betfair they are all too true.

Punting Baby Shine yesterday didn't improve my humour but she may well give me a good day out at a top-class meeting before too long.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 16, 2012 1:55 PM GMT
for my man Seamus Neville

Ask him about the mare Catchmefyoucan some day Devil
Report yourlack February 16, 2012 5:02 PM GMT
Another winner well done, great stuff.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 16, 2012 5:05 PM GMT
1st  Leighinmohr (IRE) (1) 7/2 Tote £5.00 £1.70 2nd nk Nemi (CZE) (4) 8/1   £2.20
3rd 2 ¾L Makari (GB) (2) 5/4fav   £1.10
4th 11L Indian Voyage (IRE) (9) 25/1
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 16, 2012 5:06 PM GMT
1st  Leighinmohr (IRE) (1) 7/2 Tote £5.00 £1.70

2nd nk Nemi (CZE) (4) 8/1   £2.20
3rd 2 ¾L Makari (GB) (2) 5/4fav   £1.10
4th 11L Indian Voyage (IRE) (9) 25/1
Report MCKENNA February 16, 2012 10:27 PM GMT
Well done again RA-left this one go unbacked,should have taken note that DOC & Ferguson were 1-1 at the track with previous runners. Keep up the good work.
Report MCKENNA February 16, 2012 10:28 PM GMT
Except that I have just noticed that DOC didn't ride it todayLaugh
Report RoyalAcademy February 17, 2012 11:58 AM GMT
norn, there'll be easier opportunities to find a winner than trying to unlock the Newbury bumper today that includes four wide-margin winners last time out and it is literally impossible to say at this stage how good they might be.

Even the two newcomers have nice pedigrees and the Nick Williams runner is related to loads of bumper winners. I'd usually rely on the ratings to give me  a guide (Hold Court 7lbs clear) but I don't intend to get involved. Maybe if something drifted here to a silly (greedy)price purely due to strong support for others might I play.
Report kavvie February 17, 2012 12:10 PM GMT
doc broke his leg in the hunters chase..
Report RoyalAcademy February 17, 2012 1:02 PM GMT
Caminero-2007 g Cloudings (Jamie Snowden)

Sandown 3.50pm 4yo+ 2m100yds novices’ hurdle 5, 11-2 Tom O’Brien


Anyone reading today’s racecard at Sandown will probably be more interested in the pedigree of Caminero’s owner, Sir John Chippendale Lindley Keswick ("Chips" to you and me), than that of Graham McKeever’s 4yo Maralin (soft-heavy) winner. Chips has business connections to the Hong Kong conglomerate, Jardine Matheson, a business that probably got a kick start in life from trading opium back in the day (wildmanfromborneo mightn’t approve of the wikipedia self-service research). For someone of obvious wealth he has only dabbled in racehorses but in Caminero he might have a beast worth following.

The particular maiden that he won has a record of throwing up track winners but they tend to be of the  north-of-England-gaff-track variety (Our Hero, Kilvergan Boy and Hermoso)so recent history suggests this horse will have modest ability. After he won McKeever said: “He is a tough, gutsy sort who showed a bit of inexperience in his jumping in the latter stages of the race, he was a little slow to pick up but when he did he stayed on well. He will definitely improve for this run”. Another correspondent suggested he intimated there was “massive improvement” to come. There has been  no performances of note so far from those in behind.

He is closely related to a 3m hurdle/ 2m2f chase winner and a point winner (from 7 foals) and his dam (won  a point) is a half-sister to Michael McDonagh’s Galway Hurdle winner I’m Confident.

There’s a very obvious favourite in today’s race in Ile De Re but the rest of the opposition are a motley bunch. It would be no surprise if Caminero managed to place and if the favourite disappointed for any reason it’s hard to find too many that might trouble him. Snowden (a former Henderson assistant with an improving strike-rate is training since 2008), incidentally, has a very poor track record (0/4). As I re-read this piece it’s hard to get too enthused.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 17, 2012 1:06 PM GMT
RoyalAcademy 17 Jan 12 22:41
....Finally I only mention the beaten favourite Makethe Mostofnow because he must be owned by Catch Me ifyoucan!


Presume that was a reference to the NAPS table - "mid-division on inside, headway 3rd, went 2nd briefly 3 out, weakened before next, tailed off" - (time to look again RA Cool )

Anyways, runs again 2pm Sunday in his fav Ffos Las (CD) in a little 2m.4f. Hdl against - Romanesco (ex Potts/Henry De Brom.), Benheir (also CD winner) and Loose Chips (2nd under DOC in Inch ptp).
Report norn iron February 17, 2012 5:35 PM GMT
RA CHEERS . HAD DECENT BET ON VILLAGE VIC HIT 1.35 IR BUT GREED BEAT ME Cry BOBCATBILLY WENT VERY LOW IR
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 17, 2012 6:19 PM GMT
RoyalAcademy 10 Feb 12 19:11
Boss Croaker-2007 Craigsteel g (Robert Tyner)

A race that just since 2007 has produced Paul Kristian, Bensalem, Master Of The Hall, Marathon Leader, Crash, Carlicue, Ballyegan,  Please Talk and, last but not least, Marble House is worth taking special note of as all the foregoing track winners won various divisions of the 4yo maiden run at Dromahane run on New Year’s Eve.


RA,
Just see Carlicue (Nicholls) ran 3rd today in his first H/cap Chase (3m in 3.05 at Fakenham).
Report RoyalAcademy February 17, 2012 6:31 PM GMT
You were unlucky norn. I thought McCoy was brilliant on the winner altho' I'd be a bit annoyed with Johnson if I was on Village Vic. I kept a close eye on the market for any value and it was remarkable that all six to the front of the market all stayed in single figure odds with support for everything at some stage. The Nick Williams newcomer I mentioned, Horatio Hirnblower, ran a cracker (attracting a little support at big odds) to be a close third and he goes into my tracker.

Caminero ran an honest race to be third at 12/1. He was staying on steadily from the last and you'd have to be interested in him next time when I can write the by-line:

Caminero cashes in his chips!
Report Princesse D'Anjou February 17, 2012 8:24 PM GMT
Impressed by Caminero when I was at Maralin in November - good to see him run well today and sure there's plenty more to come from him.

Snowdon seems to be getting a better quality of horse these days too - trainer on the up.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl February 17, 2012 10:17 PM GMT
I would have to agree with his highness RA, re- Dickie Johnson, could have made a move a little earlier, but I feel dickie is gone at the game...... I guess McCoy has broken his spirit/heart/desire you name it and AP has done it to him..... took a bad fall as well off Color Squad and is surely not the jockey he was...... by gorrah that AP McCoy is some warrior, you just have to like him. he is just unbreakable.....unbelievable..... Piggott, McCoy, Cauthen, Stan Mellor, Mick Kinane I have seen some wonderful riders, and a great era to live thru....
Report RoyalAcademy February 18, 2012 11:18 AM GMT
No shortage of possibilities today but Kilcrea and Harpsy Chord are two of the more obvious:

14-Dec
Kilcrea-2007 g Definite Article (Jimmy Mangan)

Thursday: Gowran Park (soft) 1.05pm 4yo 2m maiden hurdle 11-7 Paddy Mangan (3)

Kilcrea grabbed the headlines when he won a youngsters maiden under Jamie Codd at Ballindenisk (good-yielding) last May for Mangan. A couple of maiden winners have graduated from the race but it looks as it it’s up to Kilcrea to advance the form under rules. He is owned by the same connections of Kilcrea Castle who was a nice horse for Pat Doyle. Mangan admitted to being surprised by the win as he believed he would need more time but predicted a “bright future” for him.

Predominantly, the family is a French flat line and Kilcrea’s dam was originally owned by Chryss O’Reilly and raced in France with no success. She was a half-sister to a 10f winner. Kilcrea is her fourth foal and is a full brother to a dual point winner in England. John Carr raced another half-brother but he wasn’t any good.

This is quite an average race tomorrow and it would be no surprise to see Kilcrea running well. The likely favourite, Tabhachtach, could possibly pay the form of Talkonthestreet another compliment. Mangan trained three winners over the past two months so he is ticking over but I cannot trace him training a hurdles winner at Gowran in ten years, a remark that similarly applies to his jockey son. My idea of the ideal campaign for this horse is a nice “sighter” tomorrow to be followed by a Limerick maiden hurdle on their usual atrocious ground conditions over Christmas.

15-Dec

Kilcrea ran exactly as I hoped and it was very eye-catching to me. Moderately fancied in a weak event (he was probably told to "win if you can but don't hit the horse") it suits me fine that the Racing Post are talking down the race in general. I think his turn is also very close.

28-Dec

Kilcrea (J Mangan): Jimmy Mangan tried his best to provide his daughter, Jane, with a Christmas winner in the shape of Kilcrea in the St. Stephen’s Day Limerick bumper. Well-backed to do so, they were unlucky to catch the Mikey O’Connor tartar in the shape of Clonbanan Lad (winner of a Boulta maiden in November) who looks a nice horse. One way or another Kilcrea will be winning before very long as he finished 15L clear of the third.


Clonbanon Lad was gone on to win a winners’ event at Naas and looks a good prospect and the fourth home, Lamb Or Cod has collected a Thurles maiden hurdle. All in all Kilcrea looks to have a favourite’s chance of scoring today. If I back him individually I might save my stake on the Gigginstown runner.


[i]11-Jan

Harpsy Cord: runs over fences for first time today (1.30 2m5f100yds beginners’ chase) for Jim Dreaper and Alan Potts. His pedigree suggests he is a chaser as his dam is a half-sister to Visible Difference who won the Drinmore (2m4f) in 1993 for Paddy Heffernan and the granddam is a half-sister to Nicky Henderson’s 1993 Arkle winner Travado.

When he won his maiden hurdle at Limerick Dreaper said:

He´s a grand horse for next year. Sam Curling produced him and he was a ready made horse when he came to us. I imagine one more run over hurdles will be enough and he´ll go chasing in October. He´s a lovely mover on an all-weather gallop so I would say he´ll handle any ground.

And later

Harpsy Cord ran reasonably well today (27L third) against Rathlin (came in for sustained support from those with, perhaps, excess faith in Lord Jim with a debutant) and can be expected to improve significantly for the run. Although I must admit my enthusiasm for him was a little dented after he turned for home as I hoped he had the class to stay on a little more strongly than he did. (Ideally, he'd be beaten 5L in third and Securicor could be booked in advance.)

31-Jan

Opposing Willie Mullin’s odds-on shots is hardly a recommended strategy and it’s rather a pity that Harpsy Cord meets something of Soll’s apparent class tomorrow-Down Royal (heavy) 1.35pm 2m4f beginners chase. I liked the fencing debut of Harpsy Cord and it seemed to be a question of needing the run after an eight-month break as he travelled well throughout the Fairyhouse beginners’ chase over 2m6f (soft-heavy) and just seemed to tire over the second last. He was beaten by the resurgent Rathlin who is a sharp enough tool now that he’s had half his throat removed. Jim Dreaper has a very useful record with both chasing debutants (25%) and those having their second run (20%) and Harpsy Cord would be following in a decent tradition set by Jim, Telenor, Notre Pere and Royal De La Thinte (I really hope this horse gets over whatever ails him) if he could win tomorrow.

This is what I posted prior to his jumping bow and it certainly makes the horse capable of a big run on pedigree:

“Harpsy Cord: runs over fences for first time today (1.30 2m5f100yds beginners’ chase) for Jim Dreaper and Alan Potts. His pedigree suggests he is a chaser as his dam is a half-sister to Visible Difference who won the Drinmore (2m4f) in 1993 for Paddy Heffernan and the granddam is a half-sister to Nicky Henderson’s 1993 Arkle winner Travado.

When he won his maiden hurdle at Limerick Dreaper said:

He´s a grand horse for next year. Sam Curling produced him and he was a ready made horse when he came to us. I imagine one more run over hurdles will be enough and he´ll go chasing in October. He´s a lovely mover on an all-weather gallop so I would say he´ll handle any ground.”

I expect him to beat Aitmatov who was second to Harpsy Cord’s Fairyhouse third the last day and I am certainly tempted to have a rare enough flutter on this lad tomorrow. It should be possible to cover your stake as he should be at least placed. He’s up there with a relatively small band of horses that have made a favourable impression on me out of the dozens of point winners from the 2010/11 season and he’ll surely pay his way this year and into the future.

1-Feb

I think I made a fairly accurate call on Harpsy Cord earlier (
Report RoyalAcademy February 18, 2012 11:20 AM GMT
Shocked

1-Feb

I think I made a fairly accurate call on Harpsy Cord earlier (
Report RoyalAcademy February 18, 2012 11:21 AM GMT
Don't know why this hasn't posted in full:

I think I made a fairly accurate call on Harpsy Cord earlier (
Report RoyalAcademy February 18, 2012 11:23 AM GMT
Last attempt:

I think I made a fairly accurate call on Harpsy Cord earlier (5L 2nd to odds-on Soll) and his turn won't be long in coming. I think he's got quite an engine and perhaps staying three miles+ will be his forte.[/i]

Update:
Both Rathlin and Mister first give a more solid look to the January run both having scored since whilst Soll has the four-miler at Cheltenham as his target. Harpsy Cord looks solid today (slight worry about the drop back in trip) and there’s no better jockey than Andrew Lynch. He's in the RSA and the Jewson at present.

Maybe an each-way double would be a relatively conservative wager at 2/1 each-of-two.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl February 18, 2012 11:44 AM GMT
I know Iknow posters on here will have their own views on my view, and my view is, I dont overly like backing the girls in bumpers, with the obvious two Nina+Katie being the exceptions and while Jane has had a few winners but I just think I will skip the bumper and go with the other one and AE Lynch as he is in a great run of form/winners/confidence....... best of luck to Kilcrea backers and the legal eaglesWink
Report RoyalAcademy February 18, 2012 1:11 PM GMT
River Maigue-2007 Zagreb g (N Henderson)

Ascot (good-soft) 4.45pm 4-6yo 2m bumper 5, 11-02 B Geraghty


This was one of the more interesting 4yo maiden winners from last October when he won at Glenbane for Michael Hourigan on yielding, “rain-soaked” ground. I was about to say he didn’t beat a lot (prompted by the RP comment of “point win could have worked out better”) but I note that Hourigan also trained the fourth home, The Crafty Butcher, and he has been running really well in bumpers at Naas and Leopardstown. Furthermore, this maiden was won by Royal Reveille (prolific winner for Ted Walsh) in 2009 and last year saw one of my favourite’s, Moonlight Drive, win for Michael Greaney and now, of course, with John Quinn.

Hourigan was doing good trade when he bought this fellow for just €6,500 at the Tatts August sale in 2010 and one may assume that he recouped many multiples of that figure when selling on privately to Seven Barrows. He is a seventh foal with only one winning half-brother (2m6f winner for J Harrington) but the fireworks happen on the second dam’s line as she is a half-sister to both Spirit Leader (note the Harrington connection again) and one of Aidan O’Brien’s jumping stars from the nineties, That’s My Man.

Hourigan was feeling in good form after the win: “This is a serious horse.  He is from the family of That’s My Man and Spirit Leader and I’m really very excited about this horse and I own him myself.”

Henderson’s record with bumper runners is superb and his combination with Geraghty in bumpers at this track is 50% so it would be easy to get very brave about River maigue today.

The major reservation jumping out at me is that his sire, Zagreb, is only 2/54 with all UK bumper runners albeit his only two winners in this sphere, Made In Time and Quite The Man, both won at the first time of asking at Ffos Las and Kelso. His bumper record in Ireland is worse at one win from thirty nine runs.

This final statistic sets quite the puzzle but definitely tempers enthusiasm about River Maigue.

I should give an honourable mention to Handy Andy who I have a lot of time for, as does his trainer Colin Tizzard. He needs to bounce back and I think he will, the question is when (2.00pm Wincanton). Our Island is also well up there but looks outclassed in the Grade 2 novice-2012 Welsh National winner.

Enjoy the day's entertainment.
Report norn iron February 18, 2012 5:09 PM GMT
RA EXCELLENT AGAIN  WAS IN BED WITH FLU BUT MISSED SOLE WITNESS SECOND TO HARPSY CORD AND CAN WIN NTO POSS UP HERE
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl February 18, 2012 10:04 PM GMT
A great days Sport actually Friday was fab also,had a good cut at 7/4 Harpsy Cord, and thanks to AE Lynch collected,in my opinion Harpsy Cord is not one to get too excited about but may improve (needs to), backed Lovcen and he was impressive...... River Maigue ran a lovely race and Tizzard could win the Cheltenham bumper again as his winner was so very impressive......well done to his Royal Highness with Kilcrea, won well and Ms. Mangan was very polished winning without the persuader.. was a great SP at 7/4 as laddies were 11/8 all day with Spoils at 13/8 same as PP's... a great day but tomorrows another day.......
Report Fayzer February 19, 2012 7:31 AM GMT
Yeah bumper winner in ascot was visually very impressive, looked to go a half decent clip with ruby trying to win it from the front, but RGM just put the race to bed in a few strides like a real good one.
Report boltonsevs February 19, 2012 10:00 AM GMT
Fantastis pieces of writing Royal the things you unearth are exceptional surely over the year you would be in profit please keep up the sterling hard work
Report RoyalAcademy February 19, 2012 10:55 AM GMT
River Maigue was as well as you might want as a layer and, in the end, it was hardly a surprise that he was beaten by a King's Theatre and an Old Viv-that's why you pay your money for those pedigrees at public auction. Given his 2m6f winning sibling Herculies and the exploits of Spirit Leader and That's My Man the sooner he goes hurdling the better and could be good thing on his debut.

Duly landed the short-priced double with Kilcrea getting the job done and, although on face value Harpsy Cord wasn't as impressive as he threatened to be stretching clear of the field well before the turn in, I did mention I thought 2m2f might be a bit short and I think this was the case. His stamina kicked in after the last and he eventually won cosily enough. Surprises do happen in the Cotswolds.

The handicapper, Our Island, ran as well as you would want in the Reynoldstown and the rains are needed for him. Why on earth you would risk his handicap mark against better class horses on less than ideal ground I find hard to fathom. Handy Andy slowed a glimmer of improvement from recent disasters and I will keep the faith for a while yet. With his trainer, Tizzard, in good form (Royal Guardsman) I will be interested in the post-race comments when updated.

Even with yesterday's successes I missed a few a few nominations thanks to all my assistants being on extended sick-leave! I introduced Brindisi Breeze to this blog some weeks ago and ignored a very strong message on him from an English friend during the week. I was aware of the Lovcen gamble as I wrote yesterday morning and I broke a cardinal rule in not supporting Shake The Bucket at Dundalk on Friday night as he had won his last race when I was on for buttons (Madden is doing a superb job with this horse completely off the radar).

All other qualifiers: Waterunder 6/5, Reuben Cotter, Milan Nua (interesting for future), Mountainous, Saint Roque and Western Man (3rd at 100/1).
Report RoyalAcademy February 19, 2012 1:36 PM GMT
The East Antrim Hunt two-day fixture held at Loughanmore (run on Wilson Dennison’s land) every year seems to be a great racing and social occasion and I hope to make the pilgrimage there this year for the first time: it’s scheduled for 9th and 10th April.

The 2011 5yo maiden (good) produced Ado McGuinness’s Admiral Barton, a Flemensfirth gelding who cost his then owner, Tony Gannon, €27,000 as at foal at Goffs in 2006. He won by half-a-length under JD Moore from Butney Boy who was fancied to win a Down Royal maiden hurdle on St. Stephen’s Day (finished second).

Admiral Barton is a fifth foal out of a flat-bred Dancing Dissident mare (placed in a Goodwood maiden at two) who is a half-sister to three winners including Timber King who was a very good 2m hurdler for Christy Roche. Admiral Barton is himself a half-brother to False Economy who has won five for Michael Hourigan including two 2m hurdles and a two-and-a-half mile chase (also two 1m6f flat races). It’s interesting to record that the dam was bred to flat stallions for her first three foals but once False Economy (by Orpen)arrived (foal # 3) the emphasis has changed. Her first national hunt foal, Kumasi Clan (Moscow Society) is showing only modest promise for Emma Lavelle.

In researching the Loughanmore 5yo maiden I honestly expected to find little to report upon (potentially improving ground and the beginning of the end of the season) but in the event the three divisions in 2009 all produced track winners (Eurohunter, Comehomequietly and Sum Laff) and from two divisions in 2010 no less a superstar than Flemenstar was victorious. Even 2008 produced two winners from two divisions including 2011 Foxhunters star Zemsky and Adrianeo. I’d say you are paying attention now!

Incidentally, four of the above winners, including Flemenstar, all tried their hands at winning a bumper but none succeeded.

Admiral Barton was sent to the venerable Doncaster May Sale and made a decent £50,000 to the bid of former iron-man Chris “Rambo” Grant but, curiously, turns up today running for Paul Flynn (is Moon Dice running in one of the Cheltenham handicaps?)

Navan (yielding-soft) 5.00pm 2m 407yo bumper 6, 12-00 Nina Carberry

Ironically, there are two other Flemensfirth contenders heading the market today and while somewhat tenuous stats suggest the Loughanmore maiden winner won’t be a bumper winner its not a trend that is unimpeachable. The Racing Post states that Flynn won a bumper here with a debutant here in the past but I cannot find evidence of this. In fact you have to go back to Naas in October 2008 to find Flynn’s only ever bumper winning debutant (Danderry at 33/1) from 29 attempts (only two others placed).  The trainer is in a bit of a cold spell with his last winner coming in early December-13 consecutive losers since so you would need this horse to drift to generous (double figure odds?) before any claim to obtaining that elusive “value” could be claimed in my view.

Many Magnier bumper contenders have gotten turned over at short odds in the past (look no further that Bishops Walk at Navan in December)and I imagine that JP Magnier is very ring-rusty so taking a short price about him would be extremely risky. De Bromhead's horse meanwhile has very good form from what looks a strong Punchestown bumper.

Statistics and trends suggest Flynn's horse will find it hard (but not impossible) to win today but you must get a decent price to play. On the other hand I think the horse will be of major interest once he goes hurdling.
Report norn iron February 19, 2012 2:07 PM GMT
MAKETHEMOST OF NOW JUST WON  @FFOSLAS
Report RoyalAcademy February 19, 2012 2:16 PM GMT
Sarraco-2006 Old Vic g (Richard Lee)

Ffos Las (soft) 5.15pm 4-6yo bumper 6, 11-04 Charlie Poste (wears a tongue-strap)


A €25,000 first foal, his year younger brother, Royal Vic, cost €30,000 as a 3yo and is showing promise for Charles Byrnes (placed in bumpers and a likely hurdle winner before too long). Their dam (by the very classy Hector Protector) was a 12f winner and is related to four other staying-type flat winners. King Eider is a half-brother who won three on the flat for John Dunlop before embarking on a jumping career (two hurdle wins and a chase-all over 16f-17f) that ultimately came up short. There should be some speed in Sarraco if he’s any good although his point handler, Pat Doyle, described him as “a good staying type.”

Even though he won at Dromahane (yielding) in November the future exploits of the beaten horses has been disappointing. The 2010 running produced the winners Friendly Society and the oft-mentioned Our Island so perhaps this is a race where the future is all about staying chasers.

Sarraco made £33,000 at Brightwells in December and is now with Richard Lee who is mainly associated with chasers.

My preconceived notion that Lee isn’t a bumper trainer may be true in theory but he has produced 4 winning bumper debutants (20’s, 33’s, 14’s & 8/1) from just 16 starters in recent years including a winner whose dam is a half-sister to Best Mate. This record alone means that Sarraco is worth more than a second glance today. At least if you’re taking a fancy price you have God on your side and there’s no shortage of speed in the pedigree.
Report norn iron February 19, 2012 2:22 PM GMT
RA WHAT YOU MAKE OF OUR ISLAND ? I THINK THERES GOOD HANDICAP ON HEAVY GROUND POSS EVEN UTOX NATIONAL HORSE?ALSO THIS TRAINOR G MCPHERSON INTERESTS ME GETTING LOTS HORSES PLACED AN WINNING AT BIG PRICES (SOCIETY SHARES FINSHED SECOND UNLUCKY 130 FOS LAS )&TRADIONAL BOB SMALL EYECATCHER 2PM )
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 19, 2012 3:01 PM GMT
RA,
WHAT YOU MAKE OF OUR ISLAND ?

I THINK THERES GOOD HANDICAP ON HEAVY GROUND POSS EVEN UTOX NATIONAL HORSE?

ALSO THIS TRAINeR G MCPHERSON INTERESTS ME GETTING LOTS HORSES PLACED AN WINNING AT BIG PRICES

(SOCIETY SHARES FINSHED SECOND UNLUCKY 130 FOS LAS & TRADIONAL BOB SMALL EYECATCHER 2PM)


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Catch Me ifyoucan 17 Feb 12 13:06
RoyalAcademy 17 Jan 12 22:41
....Finally I only mention the beaten favourite Makethe Mostofnow because he must be owned by Catch Me ifyoucan!........Anyways, runs again 2pm Sunday in his fav Ffos Las (CD) in a little 2m.4f. Hdl against - Romanesco (ex Potts/Henry De Brom.), Benheir (also CD winner) and Loose Chips (2nd under DOC in Inch ptp).


ANOTHER WINNER FOR THE THREAD (at a juicy 7/1 toooooooo)!!!!!!!!
Report RoyalAcademy February 21, 2012 11:56 AM GMT
From 31-Dec-11

Jay, Definite Memories won a division of a mares' maiden in Boulta (soft-heavy)that has thrown up some very useful winners in recent years including Bluesea Cracker (Irish national) and Colin Bowe's duo Askanna and Our Victoria. Most mares' maidens are forgettable events.

She's a half-sister to three French flat winners; the dam (Darshaan) raced in France and bred a few foals before being sold in Ireland. The interesting horse from the page is Puntal, half-brother to the dam, won his biggest-ever race, the Sandown Gold Cup, on the only occasion McCoy didn't ride him-he was claimed to ride Pipe's other horse Stormez.

Definite Memories was trained by former jockey Pat Cloke and these are some of my notes:

Former amateur ride Pat Cloke (based outside The Ballagh in Co. Wexford) was understandably predicting a bright future for his charge following her scintillating success: “I’ve had Feathard Lady (unbeaten seven-time winner including 2005 Christmas Hurdle), Gemini Lucy (six-time Graded chase winner for J Harrington) and Sunami Storm (dual hurdle and chase winner for W Mullins) in my yard at some stage and I think that this one will be every bit as good.

“We will give her a month off now and will probably go for a bumper in the spring.”

She recently made £61,000 at the Brightwells December sale and is now with Venetia Williams.

Wincanton (soft) 3.15pm 4yo+ 2m6f mares’ novices’ hurdle 5, 11-00 A Coleman (abandoned on 2nd February)

Williams is able to get one ready to win over hurdles first-time-out with a 13% strike-rate (overall hurdling strike-rate is 15%) and it may be of note that she has only run two hurdling debutant mares in the past 10 years at Wincanton and one of them won.

The Tizzard mare is the likely favourite and he was predicting finding a "little" mares' race for her earlier in the season so she's not carrying the potential reputation of Definite Memories (although we all know about bubble reputations from this quarter). I don't think she is suffering from any pre-race hype at the moment so maybe she will be a price to justify a place saver.

I find myself quiet enthused by this mare tomorrow and she will be worth a second look in the market. If she is the 2011 version of the "best autumn pointing mare" (held by Baby Shine from 2010) she won't be half bad.


Today: 21-Feb-12

Definite Memories-2006 m Definite Article (Venetia Williams)

Taunton (good-soft) 4yo+ 2m1f novices’ hurdle 10-09 Sam Thomas


Definite Memories has four principal rivals today in a very competitive event:

Dualla Lord (P Nicholls) is running over a very short trip today and has been unusually campaigned since October. He’s pretty decent (should make a lovely chaser) but could be found out over the trip.

Giardano Bruno was Hobbs’ best bumper horse three years ago but was off the track for 3 years. A recent hurdling third was just adequate (R107) Second and fourth failed to advertise the form

If youletmefinish was a very promising third behind Grumeti and Ted Spread on his debut but definitely let the form down when failing (second) at Taunton (6/5F) last month. It’s probable he needs further than 2m1f (wears a tonguestrap).

Urbain De Sivola sets the standard. Should have won his penultimate start (sprawled at last on landing) and Alan King’s well-named Cheltenham contender, Secret Edge, was second. Was very impressive on last start at Newbury (R127) beating Ranjaan and Ardlui who have both franked the form. He’s as low as 16/1 for the Triumph.

In the hypothetical absence of Urbain De Sivola one could fancy Definite Memories today at a fancy price. The favourite has had two quirky runs from three starts but has a touch of class. She might well pay a dividend for a place (lots of my nominations seem to run placed behind obvious “good things”) but, ideally, she runs well, fades late like she needs the run and is a moral in a mares’ hurdle next time out.
Report Princesse D'Anjou February 21, 2012 1:14 PM GMT
^^ Agre with you on her - definitely worth an E/W punt.
Report Princesse D'Anjou February 21, 2012 2:08 PM GMT
Love it when you back one E/W that's not put in the race and finishes 4th - the market knew.
Report RoyalAcademy February 21, 2012 2:43 PM GMT
No doubt about it PD. Coleman never busy on Definite Memories and he probably didn't even bring his persuader out with him.

Morning Betfair market can be hard to decipher: plenty of money for her in the morning and shortened to 14 fom 25 here although that was probably money from value-seekers rather than any connections. On course, she drifted like a barge with books and machine. She'll be in many notebooks for finishing so well (2m4f+ from now on) but why finish fourth in such an eye-catching fashion if you're not off? At least we now know she'll win plenty.

Admiral Barton ran well against two superior rivals in the bumper on Saturday. An apoplectic JP Magnier punter told me the best horse was second but taking a short price with true "gentlemen" corinthians is never wise.  Hurdling will be the Admiral's game.

Richard Lee's Sarraco wasn't going to win on Sunday without some market support but he ran with the choke out and trailed in seventh. Happy to see him supported as now we know that Lee is pleased with his new arrival.

Norn, I mentioned Our Island before: he needs an extreme trip and winter ground and then he could win any handicap chase or possibly surprise a few higher-rated horses in a conditions event. It might be a long wait but opportunities eventually come around.
Report Princesse D'Anjou February 21, 2012 3:43 PM GMT
Always the problem with them - don't want to make it too blatant, I'd imagine she looked unfit or green in the paddock/to post as she jumped the path close home but still ran on well.  Probably with hindsight spoke volumes that she was in the 2m 6f race and this 2m 1f affair ie. they weren't bothered which they ran in as long as she was beaten.
Report keen leader February 21, 2012 5:06 PM GMT
you have our island to a tee RA, only worry is that he has had a very rough races and still relatively young i hope it does not sour him, running him as a 6 year old in the WN was a stupid idea, he is not a forward french bred.

you wrong about sarraco, i took half of the place market out of him on sunday. he did "win" a race that throws up track winners, though you had better put things into context...that day he was 100% ready from a farm that leaves little to work on, he was going to be a badly beaten docket had not fromthetop fallen two out. left in front, he fell in from 2 useless nags.  i see sarraco as a 85-95 selling grade type not worth 2 bob...never ever will he get close to winning a bumper.

definite memories having examined her in the flesh, is a lovely big mare, still work in progress and needs more time...not a chance she could win today on a sharp circuit over the minimum trip. leave her alone until next season, dont think miss w will over cook an expensive purchase(for a mare). if staying healthy i would think she could develop into a black type mare over fences, just need to be patient with her, and follow when the stable put the real money down, and she is a 7/2 to 9/4 job. this yard rarely do surprise unsupported 20/1 winners.
Report norn iron February 21, 2012 10:03 PM GMT
RA  BOTH DISTIME/ALLTHEKINGSHORSES RUN @DONC 405  . I LIKE ALLTHEKINGSHORSES  14/1
Report norn iron February 22, 2012 11:01 AM GMT
ALSO SEE HUNTERS LODGE IN SAME RACE COULD BE DECENT HANDICAP 405 DONC
Report RoyalAcademy February 22, 2012 11:10 AM GMT
Hard pressed for time at the moment. I don't like mentioning horses that I haven't studied in detail but as norn raised them:.

There are actually five horses I monitor running in the 4.05pm: Soudain, Distime, Allthekingshorse, Dawn Commander and Hunters Lodge. The best I can hope for is that a review of proceedings will enlighten me later.

I mentioned Victor Leodorum as a possible Wareed horse that might be a winner for Charlie Mann (3pm Donc).

No less that three protaganists in the 5.20pm at Ludlow: Handsome Harry, Low Gales and Dan Andy.

Ballyalton to follow up in winners' bumper (5.10pm Donc) and its a pity that both Angles Hill and In The Binyanis clash at Punchestown in the bumper.

keen, its good to get your view as I don't get racing often enough and, as i've said before, conformation is not my thang. Two comments on your observations: undoubtedly there was some market support for Sarraco and time will tell if they were deluded or not (I believe that Lee bought a chaser primarily and I only recommended an interest in the bumper if he was a huge price-not at anything like SP) and as regards Pat Doyle and leaving "little to work on" this wouldn't square with Doyle being the Gigginstown nursery of choice? This is the easy question to ask but perhaps you feel his winners don't live up to their reputations when they get to the track? His winning record for the past 5 seasons has been 13, 12, 15, 6 & 8 (to date).
Report Princesse D'Anjou February 22, 2012 11:11 AM GMT
Dawn Commander a NR but has looked like he'd need the step up in trip he would have got today.

Great write up as always RA.
Report Allduckornodinner February 22, 2012 12:06 PM GMT
There would be a difference in approach taken by Pat Doyle between the Giggy horses and the rest of whay he would have. The former group of horses are given plenty of time and aren't drilled to win fto though many are capable of doing it without being fully ready.

He would also have a number of other horses whose sole aim is to be sold on (in this case he was owned by a leading bloodstock agent who sells on numerous winning pointers every season). Therefore these horses would often be much more forward for their debut. Sarraco is a classic example of a horse happening upon thhe right race and taking advantage. I don't put too much mass in times but it was about 15 or 20 seconds slower than the first division of the race. He was also left in front by a faller who was going better at the time and subsequently has proven himself to be pretty average. Derek O' Connor is also a past master at getting middling horses home in front when there is no real discernable difference in ability between a few horses fighting out a race.
Report norn iron February 22, 2012 4:18 PM GMT
ALLTHEKINGSHORSES 210 IR  STAYED ON LONGER THAN THE MOTHERINLAW
Report MCKENNA February 22, 2012 4:18 PM GMT
NORN picked the right one, well done! Say he was some price before the last?
Report MCKENNA February 22, 2012 4:20 PM GMT
Thanks NORN, can you make it a bit quicker the next timeLaugh
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl February 23, 2012 11:40 AM GMT
Well done winners ...Low Gales also won 33/1, and I think that Sam Thomas schooled this for the Channl 4 cameras (Morning Line) ......... Carrigeen today in Thurles but shouldn't beat Definite Class imho, this time around
Report MCKENNA February 23, 2012 11:44 AM GMT
Think Carrigeen will improve over the extra 2f today, although the bad mistake Definite Class made LTO at the 2nd last could have lost him the race. At the prices today, I will stick with Carrigeen again.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl February 24, 2012 10:00 PM GMT
Has he really passed away >

Well done MCKENNA, much too good for that lot ..........
Report Princesse D'Anjou February 24, 2012 11:34 PM GMT
It's the horse Royal Academy not the poster who's passed away as I understand it Jay.
Report MCKENNA February 24, 2012 11:40 PM GMT
Jaysus, I hope so anyway!!  We would be lost without him on here.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl February 25, 2012 10:39 AM GMT
OK ha must be in mourning so lads, a kinda sabbatical, interested to know what de Bromheads bumper horse might achieve ?
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 25, 2012 3:28 PM GMT
RoyalAcademy 22 Feb 12 15:31

From the original letter by Mark Twain:

James Ross Clemens, a cousin of mine was seriously ill two or three weeks ago in London, but is well now.

The report of my illness grew out of his illness. This report of my death was an exaggeration.

MT May 1897
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 25, 2012 5:09 PM GMT
Catch Me ifyoucan 05 Feb 12 19:06
Just noted these comments after racing....
Following Portrait King’s win, Phelan said “he was unlucky the last day and deserved that. He has been placed in hurdles and bumpers but that is his first win, apart from a point to point. He’d prefer further and will get four miles.

“He’ll head across the water for a staying chase, probably the Eider Chase at Newcastle at the end of the month. He loved the testing conditions and it’s a tougher track than Fairyhouse which suited him.”
Report pa lapsy February 29, 2012 12:48 PM GMT
Definite Memories run in 2.20 Bangor today,interesting to see how she goes after her last run.
Report pa lapsy February 29, 2012 2:28 PM GMT
Led/disputed early,took it up 3 out,went clear after jumping last,backed exchanges all rates 11/4-11/8.
Completely different ride than lto,hope you kept the faith RA.
Report RoyalAcademy February 29, 2012 3:57 PM GMT
Sorry i haven't managed to update recently. Changed circumstances!

I will try to post shortly even if a lot less frequently.

I was going to say I'm just back from The Hunter Valley wake but you might not believe that!

what said that Definite Memories is next season's winner?
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl March 6, 2012 10:34 AM GMT
Yes Definite Memories won well and was a fair ould punt as well.......Today we have this enigma Talkonthestreet  at Exeter and its over a distance just short of 3ml.Surely this will be right up his street as a point2point winner, doesn't look a very strong race on paper though Paul Nicholls has a runner in it and is regarded as the main threat coming as he does from the champion trainers stable.Now he is not going to be much above 2.06 on here now but without the PN runner he would be very short.Nicholls runner also from the p2p fields (second at Dromahane) Likeable Rogue is a major threat and with the Hobbs runer finding it hard to get his ceann in front maybe the PN horse will come out on top.........Also at Kilworth p2p last Sunday Pat Hughes ventured south and duly collected with Teelan Star a 6yr old by Beneficial and its reported to have been a very impressive winner and is likely according to Hughes to be aimed at the P2P Bumper at Fairyhouse at the Easter Festival , one to note
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 6, 2012 10:52 AM GMT
RoyalAcademy 23 Jan 12 21

The other race .......Graeme McPherson’s Presented (who worked the oracle with handicapper Tickatack)...........If the trainers have any sense neither will feature at the business end and they should all acquire marks that should make them competitive in handicaps. A race to watch.




Yesterday......
1st  Medic Man....strongly pressed close home, just held on
2nd shd Presented (Morning price: 10/1 11/2) SP 4/1 Graeme P Mcpherson T Molloy(3)

held up in mid-division, headway 6th, went 3td at 8th, went 2nd well before next, led after 2 out, headed before last, rallied close home, just failed
Report MCKENNA March 6, 2012 4:46 PM GMT
Johnson made hard work of that one, 2nd ran a bit green which cost him a length.
Report MCKENNA March 7, 2012 8:12 PM GMT
Missed Leighinmohr in the 1st at DP today-another one for this thread, gotta be one of the best on the forum.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 8:18 PM GMT
Leighinmohr is half-brother to two Key Of Luck winners in Sally’s Dream-winner of bumper and 2m1f hurdle for M Hourigan-and Foxy Fred who won a bumper for Francis Flood out of a mare who was placed in three bumpers and who in turn is a half-sister to five winners. The grandam is the prolific dual-purpose mare Winning Nora. This is a pedigree that has been very good to owner/trainer Dennis Reddan and Leighinmohr comes from a long line of winners.


"Sorry i haven't managed to update recently. Changed circumstances!" ?????
Report RoyalAcademy March 14, 2012 12:47 PM GMT
My interest yesterday was confined to Harpsy Cord at Cheltenham hoping he'd find the first time handicap run and the venue too much. I thought he ran well enough and now for him to get a lower Irish mark.

I finished the day a little behind (e/w bet) after backing True Blue to land the handicap hurdle at Sedgefield. He was unlucky to lose against a Sue Smith touch. He'll surely win soon now.

Today could see the breakthrough for John Ferguson with both Cotton Mill and New Year's Eve having decent chances in the Neptune & bumper. I can't make a selection from five winning Irish pointers in both races but I am interested in Baldadash and Glenwood Present for the not too distant future. I also think Village Vic could run very close in the bumper.

Could Our Island run well in the four-miler without his ground? I'll decide at 1.29pm if the layers get greedy.
Report RoyalAcademy March 14, 2012 12:55 PM GMT
For anyone thinking there's easier puzzles than the Cheltenham's Rubik Cube one could do worse than pay close attention to Billy Twyford in the Huntingdon bumper. Events at Prestbury Park earlier will determine his price ("Nicky has a machine in the half-five" or "he's having a crap day") but at around 3/1 at present on his preferred ground he looks ok to me in what looks a weak race.
Report RoyalAcademy March 15, 2012 1:30 PM GMT
I think Adams Island could go well in the Kim Muir today. Formerly with Rebecca Curtis he was moved back to Paul Nolan last summer and following two disappointing runs over fences (unseated at first in the Kerry national)he eventually found some form back over hurdles when third in the Pertemps at Leopardstown over Christmas. This gave connections sufficient confidence to send him off joint-favourite for the Thyestes in which he finished a creditable fourth. The form of the Thyestes hasn't been tested very well but, amongst the also-rans, the back-to-form Paddy Pub, The Bishop Looney and Shakervilz are doing their bit for the form.

Adams Island has run twice before at Cheltenham: he unseated early here last year when fancied in a handicap chase and was then a nice second to this week's cross-country winner Balthazar King over today's trip last April (good). He has a sometime reputation for sloppy jumping but if he can establish a nice rhythm Nolan thinks he will run well. he runs in blinkers and a tongue-tie for the first time. Odds of 25/1 and 5/1 the place look ok to me here.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl March 15, 2012 11:54 PM GMT
Billy Twyford ran well but only 3rd.......Definite Memories won again today but only just at long odds on.. in order that I dont forget I want to put up a winning pointer from the Robert Tyner yard that was very impressive at Lemonfield, she's a 5yr old mare by Beneficial out of 2001 Paddy Power winner I Can Imagine. Derek O Connor was very impressed with her and Tyner thinks she could be better than her mother.... one to note for a Mares p2p bumper or some such race.Her name Byerley Babe
Report Allduckornodinner March 16, 2012 12:08 AM GMT
She's a right little one that Byerley Babe. She looks a good thing for a mares bumper wherever she turns up.
Report Allduckornodinner March 16, 2012 12:48 AM GMT
Phar From A Friend met his maker last week
Report Allduckornodinner March 16, 2012 1:09 AM GMT
No he hadn't run since that day against Simonsig.

He had makings of decent enough type alright and the trainer sure could have done with one. Hasn't had much luck in recent years.
Report pa lapsy March 16, 2012 8:43 AM GMT
See you mentioned Dawn commander as a horse you were monitoring,RA (22nd Feb),subsequently ran a fine race in defeat where he couldn,t quite get up in a class 3(29th feb).Runs today in the Albert Barlett(was also entered in the Pertempts and Fred Winter.Probably way too hot for him today but worth keeping an eye on with a view to backing him if he contests a class 3 in the short term.
I,d imagine we,ll see Baby shine contest the mares final next week,(2.40 Newbury,March 24th.)Know Henderson/Sherwood have farmed this race in recent times but pending who she is up against must have a chance of getting compensation for her last run,hopefully we,ll have your thoughts. gl.
Report RoyalAcademy March 16, 2012 10:34 AM GMT
Thomond O'Mara had raved about Billy Twyford after his point win and oftentimes you have to try to separate the sales spin from the reality. He's probably ok and of more interest when going jumping. I was a bit annoyed for nominating him without doing all the usual research: the winner was the first foal out of the classy Mariah Rollins and should have been noted as a significant runner especially as he was by Old Vic.

I was a little unlucky with my e/w double on the two Ferguson fancies and I'm having a small interest today in Asaid in the Triumph for Ferguson and Geraghty. 50/1+ looks ok! As you can tell I don't tend to get stuck into betting at Cheltenham as I find it too difficult to solve mostly.

Adams Island's (Big Buck's has the apostrophe, Adams Island hasn't-go figure!!)jumping left him down (again!) yesterday and despite any number of errors he travelled very well for most of the race. There was strong support for him beforehand. This suggests he has a touch of class and if they can improve his jumping he could land a big pot like the Whitbread or whatever its called now.
Report RoyalAcademy March 16, 2012 11:33 AM GMT
pa l: in a piece of classic aftertiming I should have listed all the qualifiers in Wednesday's novice and bumper because the ten runners included Simonsig and Champagne Fever (both point winners). Handsome LSP on the day which is nothing unusual at the bigger meets for these point qualifiers Sad

Similarly in the novice today it includes Dawn Commander(133), Brindisi Breeze(148), Hard To Swallow(130), Mount Benbulben(140), Rocky Creek(140), Lovcen(142) and The Druid's Nephew(131). Hard To Swallow is a particular favourite of mine (for the future I imagine) but if the favourite(OR151) is to be beaten it may well be from the above contenders. On official ratings some also seem outclassed.

Finally, purely for sentimental purposes I will be having a few quid on Surenaga in the Foxhunter. A more, sane level-headed punter would fancy Salsify (a multiple winner from the pointing scene) but Surehaga was one of the first winning maidens (for Pat Doyle) I noted way back in 2007 when I started my pointing research. He took his time to win on the track-almost two years-but his second victory was in the Military Cup at Sandown so he has some useful, if scarce, form.

Best of luck to all today.
Report MCKENNA March 16, 2012 4:15 PM GMT
Well done Coleman, patient ride paid off.  Another big one for this thread.
Report boltonsevs March 17, 2012 10:35 AM GMT
Fine ride indeed
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl March 18, 2012 12:37 PM GMT
Yes it was legend Laugh I hope you followed your opinion today Moyaliff was down to run in navan but NR now... if he's got a problem he might be getting an expensive purchase.......
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl March 18, 2012 12:39 PM GMT
OH forgot Kilcrea runs in the bumper in Limerick and takes on a Mullins hotpot but is not without a big chance of turning him over.... Jane Mangan claims 7lbs and could well make all the difference......
Report MCKENNA March 18, 2012 3:01 PM GMT
Don't forget Carrigeen Lechuga in the 3.55, looks value against the Byrnes fav even with the great Barry on board her today. 

Can't leave Liz go unbacked today after 2 nice wins at Thurles.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 23, 2012 2:43 PM GMT
BANGOR double tomara imho

2.50 Call Back with 4.25 Moonlight Drive
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 12, 2012 11:59 PM BST
Moyaliff tomorrow with the great Ruby on bord, doesn't ride too many for CF Swan ! lets make this a winner tomorrow Killarney 2.55pm,
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 28, 2013 12:02 PM GMT
RoyalAcademy 30 Dec 11 16:59.......Carrigmorna King was also heavily supported and was unlucky to run into a Nicholls horse competing over hurdles for the first time which I usually find is the stamp of a decent horse. (He had been bought by Nicholls for Johnson/Stewart partnership after winning a bumper impressively for Pam Sly.) This may turn out to be the stronger division of the novices' hurdle but, again, he's looking so thoroughly exposed that the prospect of some value any time soon is fast diminishing even if he did run well on this better ground. He was beaten by a Beneficial so I'm not sure that the tight Taunton track was such a factor especially as it's home territory for Hobbs.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2013 4:42 PM GMT
Catch Me ifyoucan 22 Jan 12 16:58
[i]Massini Lotto
is half owned by Mr PM Tayor and in the care of JJ Quinn (see my thread pmt's 'RECESSION PROOF' on the Chelt.2012 forum).


Lucky Owner pmt - "that's the 7th big handicap hurdle John has won for me over the last 5 years. crow wood ; john smiths at Musselbrugh, and elite at Wincanton, kings quay john smiths at aintree, summer hurdle at Market rasen,Elite hurdle at wincanton. leslingtaylor swinton at Haydock now recession proof" (Totesport at Newbury).[/i]

Catch Me: Massini Lotto holds high rank on my list of unraced 4yo maiden winners from spring 2011. Although the dam has yet to throw anything of note she is an unraced half-sister to four hurdle winners. Massini Lotto beat Hold Court (Philip Fenton for John Power and now with Evan Williams) by 2L at Athlacca in May and Hold Court has won two bumpers impressively since-only starts. Massini Lotto’s handler was (and may still be?) Kieran Purcell and he rates well up there in my book. He spoke of the horse as bumper material after his victory and it's worth noting his two runs in points have been on good ground; Dr Massini's seem to be adaptable ground-wise. If you are looking for further evidence to follow this horse it might come from the 2009 winner of this race being Al Ferof!

FINALLY COMES GOOD.....missed it ffs ! Whoops
Report pmt March 10, 2013 4:08 PM GMT
sorry you missed it.i hav e been off the forum for two years since my horse got injured but now they are both in training. recession proof and Massini lotto. RP needs soft and Massini needs fast so watch the weather. Recession proof had a tendon injury and we are hopeful he retains some ability.He is a bit high in the handicap over hurdles 146, as he was only beaten 8 lengths in the Supreme behind Al ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card. He was catching them up the hill but the Tuesday 2 mile track is too sharp for him and we should have run him over further.

they may drop him a few after such a long time off or they may put him up off the collaterall form of the others in the Supreme. He might have a run over hurdles this spring then a couple of runs on the flat as we need to be careful with his legs.

masin Lotto is a great jumper and we will take him summer jumping then give him the winter off. He might be allright for the NH chase if he stays that far.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 16, 2016 4:12 PM BST
RoyalAcademy  • December 30, 2011 4:59 PM GMT.....
Thanks for the contributions Jay, kl & Catchme and Happy New Year to all who visit and contribute to the Irish Forum.
...A horse that ran well here was De Faoithesdream for Evan Williams. I've had a technical hitch receiving details on the 2011 pointing qualifiers but hopefully that will be ironed out shortly. This fellow won on the very first day of the season at Rathcannon and is promising. I'm looking forward to reviewing their progress over Christmas over the next few days provided I can stay sober!


RA,
Won for the 7th time...has been worth following Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan October 24, 2017 2:34 PM BST
De Faoithesdream expect to see him run well in Cheltenham soon.
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