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RoyalAcademy
30 Nov 11 22:32
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Date Joined: 05 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 1,355 | Blogger: RoyalAcademy's blog
I ran something similar on another forum but asked too much of myself by nominating so many horses and I simply had to give it up for lack of time. Viaduct Joey and Run With The Wind winning at Listowel in September were the highlights of that last effort.

I will nominate a more manageable list of horses here that I am following from last year's point-to-point season with a view to recommending them as decent investments when I think the time is right. I know there are experts here with a greater knowledge than myself in this sphere so if it doesn't cut the mustard it will soon fall off the front page.

I'll also challenge myself to keep an account of the P&L. Bets will be from 1-5 points in time.

Feel free to contribute.

Endofdiscusion (Paul Webber)

Thursday 1st December 2011: Leicster 3.10pm 2m4f110yds 4+ maiden hurdle 11-00 Dominic Elsworth


Out In The Sun, an American-bred mare by It’s Freezing, was a two-time flat winner (9f on soft ground) back in the mid-90’s for Tony Mullins and his long-time patron Annette Mee and they’ve had good fun with her dual-purpose progeny ever since. She has bred four winners the best of which were Aquila Oculus (flat winner & won three 2m hurdles), Summer Break (flat winner & won two 2m hurdles) and Piercing Sun (bumper/hurdle/flat/chase winner). Fake Tan (2000 Eagle Eyed mare) is a full sister to Aquila Oculus and Piercing Sun but she was a low-grade handicapper who was never placed in 8 runs on the flat and never tried over hurdles. She was covered by Iron Mask in 2005 and sold in foal the following February for €12,000. This colt never ran.

The horse I am interested in is her second foal, the grammatically-challenged Endofdiscusion, a 2007 gelding by Flemensfirth, who cost Sean Doyle €15,500 at the 2010 Derby Sale (cost €25,000 as a foal) and ran in 2 point-to-points last April before joining Paul Webber for £30,000 from the Doncaster May sale. The reason for this reasonable return on investment was his second run at Taylorstown (good-firm) where he unseated at the last when just overtaken by the eventual winner Call ‘Em Home (a little disappointing for Colin Bowe on his only subsequent start in a Kilbeggan bumper). Previous runnings of this maiden in 2009 and 2010 have seen two of the three winners win under rules with the third horse recently finishing second at Ascot.

Paul Webber said of him recently: “We bought him at Doncaster. He wasn’t on my list to look at because of his form but his vendor pulled him out and said I should look at him. He’s a shell of a horse but has ability, he would have won or been second in his point-to-point if he hadn’t unseated at the last. Very straightforward and is a staying horse in the making. Will run over hurdles at 2m4f when the ground eases a bit.”

Webber is having a reasonably good year and has trained three winners in November while Dominic Elsworth is also in form. Given the above comments it’s a little surprising to see him running on good-firm ground on Thursday. He was also recently described as a “real tough stayer in the making”.

He is taking on a hotpot of Henderson’s tomorrow and could easily place but I won’t be investing in many of these horses unless they have virtually every box ticked or they start at a price I regard as very decent value to overcome some known unknowns! I’m looking for a nice introductory run setting him up for a staying hurdle on soft ground in time.

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Replies: 301
By:
yourlack
When: 01 Dec 11 07:32
I know its a bit off topic but run with the wind will be very interesting the next time he runs, think he could be decent. Would love to see him entered for the mcr(pierse) hurdle would have a lovely weight for it. No better man than mj to lay one out.
By:
BJG
When: 01 Dec 11 18:22
gl
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 01 Dec 11 18:30
Endofdiscusion ran as well as you would want (Leicster Class 5 maiden hurdle) against a 2/11 shot on ground that was on the soft side of good and possibly “dead”. He jumped quite well on his jumping debut having been off the track for seven months. He showed enough to suggest he’s well capable of winning races. I doubt the form of this race will amount to much so his level of ability remains uncertain. I must look into Webber's training style to unearth a few clues as to how he operates.

He was run out of second place on the run-in by another ex-pointer, Ballintubber Cross, who had finished third on his only start at Dromohane in November 2010. He was beaten that day by Friendly Society (winner of a Limerick maiden hurdle) and Back In Focus (a very promising Grade 2 hurdle winner for Howard Johnson). Ballintubber Cross joined Venetia Williams for £38,000 from Doncaster and it was only last month that he made his debut. He was unsighted for his first two runs but with Williams’s horses in good form at the moment it wouldn’t have been a huge surprise to see him staying on well today promising something for future days.

I agree with you on Run With The Wind yourlack. He's run two crackers in maiden hurdles (form working out really well) and I had him down to run well in some of the big spring two-mile handicaps. He's bred to win a Guineas.
By:
neill d
When: 01 Dec 11 19:53
Endofdiscussion would have beaten Ballintubber Cross if ridden with the same restraint , he is the horse to take out of the race for me.
By:
ko2
When: 01 Dec 11 23:00
webber has poor strike rate/returns with hurdlers 1st time out. as a rule it isnt the time to be backing them
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 03 Dec 11 14:21
Glenwood Present-2007 g Presenting (Bob Buckler)

Saturday: 3.45pm 4-6yo 2m110yds bumper 11-02 Nathan Sweeney (5)


It may seem odd nominating a horse that finished 89L last of eight on his bumper debut (good) but I certainly haven’t given up on Glenwood Present after one run for which he started a strong 11/4 shot.

He made £50,000 at Doncaster in May having scored for Denis Murphy and **** Frisby in a Toomebridge 4yo maiden (good), a race that has seen three subsequent maiden winners including the unlucky faller, Dawn Commander, who recently won a Wexford maiden hurdle for Willie Codd.

He has a very nice pedigree as he’s the third foal (2006 full sister was second last week in a Thurles maiden hurdle for Dessie Hughes) out of a hurdles-placed Religiously mare (John Fowler) who is a half-sister to Dessie Hughes’ Magnanimity (Grade 2 hurdle and chase winner) and eight-time chase winner Forest Dante. Significantly, the second dam is a half-sister to Amberleigh House.

Prior to his debut run this was Buckler’s view of him:
This 4 year old chestnut was a winner of a 3m point to point in Ireland in his only run. He has the makings of a classy chaser with a Grand National winner in his bloodline. Despite winning in Ireland he has been slightly immature and will be given enough time to develop. I have found him to have a great engine when on the gallops and I am really looking forward to his development. He will be given a bumper run before the year end.

…and following the run:
After looking like a superstar whilst cantering down to the start of the 2m 1f Daily Mail Standard Open NH Flat Race at Folkestone Glenwood Present then got himself unsettled just before the start of the race, he then pulled strongly for the first mile which did him no favours for his first race and with him only really still being a big baby it was no surprise that he struggled when he came under pressure, Andrew made sure he was looked after to the line. Glenwood Present came back fine after the race and he will be wiser and stronger for the next time he runs.

Ground will be heavy today and I think he will run a much better race as long as he handles these previously unknown conditions. He’s an interesting horse to follow long term especially with Buckler renowned as a chasing trainer. Hat-trick bumper winner Mizzurka is only one of two bumper scorers for him in five years.
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 03 Dec 11 17:49
£50,000 investment looking in severe jeopardy with a performance like that (pulled up after travelling too keenly, if not very immaturely, in the early stages).

I'm not writing him off given Buckler's comments about him needing time but it will be a long term interest.

No money lost, no harm done.

*********************************************************************

Starkie-2007 g Putra Sandhurst (H De Bromhead)

Sunday: Fairyhouse (soft-heavy) 3.20pm 2m 4yo bumper 11-09 Mr D Roche (5)


There’s been plenty of controversy over the years with photo(less)-finishes at point-to-points but that situation has been remedied this year and, already for the 2011 season, the new equipment has been unable to divide dead-heaters in at least two races. Division 2 of the 4yo maiden run at Ballindenisk (good-yielding) last May probably witnessed the last occasion on which the judge declared technology-less joint winners in the shape of Wings Of Icarus (superbly-bred gelding and already a Plumpton bumper winner (RPR: 110) for David Pipe and Tabhachtach (second (RPR: 114) at Wexford on only subsequent hurdling start for Shay Slevin).

De Bromhead’s Starkie was holding a slight lead approaching the last fence in this race but ran out. He hasn’t run since and makes his debut in a bumper tomorrow.

Starkie looks well-bought at the Land Rover as a 3yo for €11,000  by De Bromhead, being the first foal of an unraced Gildoran mare who is a half-sister to bumper/six-time chase winner The Land Agent (91g Town And Country) and Kentford Grebe (99m Teenoso), a hurdle and three-time chase winner. Both were trained by Seamus Mullins.

Apart from The Land Agent (one of the smartest bumper horses of her era), other bumper winners appearing on this page are: Kentford Tina (half-sister to second dam), Lady Rebecca (triple bumper winner and high-class staying mare) and Lord Generous (second foal of Lady Rebecca) who was considered good enough to run (unsuccessfully) in the 2008 Cheltenham bumper.

On the downside, his sire (by Royal Academy!) is a completely unknown quantity and Starkie is from his first, and as yet winnerless, crop. I can find only one registered runner for him to date.

With De Bromhead on top of the world following Sizing Europe’s win in the Tingle Creek and a decent 5/22 in Fairyhouse bumpers it will be no surprise to see this fellow run very close. I will be interested in the first show tomorrow but a premium on price is required given the unknown sire (and it is extremely difficult for unfashionable national hunt sires to break through).
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 04 Dec 11 11:15
Talkonthestreet-2007 g Milan (Philip Hobbs)

Sunday: Warwick (good) 3.40pm 4/6yo 2m bumper 4, 11-02 R Johnson


Henry De Bromhead also features in relation to Talkonthestreet as he trained him to win his only point-to-point at Dromahane (good) last April in the style of a “well above-average” four-year-old.

Three maiden point winners came from the race with fourth, Monturgeon, finishing second for Alan King in a Taunton novices’ hurdle recently (RPR 110). The race also featured Tabhachtach (mentioned above in connection with Starkie) who also won a maiden and was second in a Wexford maiden hurdle (RPR 114).

"This horse has always worked well and he could now go for the four-year-old bumper at the Punchestown festival," remarked de Bromhead of Talkonthestreet, whom he acquired at last year's Derby sale. He obviously had a change of heart when the uber-wealthy Diana Whately came knocking at Knockeen and the horse is now with Philip Hobbs.

Bought as foal for €63,000 he made a recession-induced €46,000 when re-offered as a three-year-old at the Land Rover (to De Bromhead’s bid). At those prices, he had to have an attractive pedigree being the first foal of an unraced Shernazar mare who is full-sister to a bumper winner and a half-sister to two Mandalus geldings in Maximise (won quality  staying chases the Feltham and the Kim Muir) and Young Ottoman (a stayer of some quality for Vic Dartnall).

Talkonthestreet has had one run finishing a 3L second (of 17) in a 2m1f bumper at Aintree (good) towards the end of October. He was beaten by Sir Johnson (by Deploy), trained by Peter Bowen and this was no less that the gelding’s fourth straight bumper win (RPR: 126) and may have Cheltenham pretensions as he was conceding a stone to the runner-up and third. A rating of 126 would be the minimum standard required for Prestbury Park in March. Of the front six home only third-placed Special Catch (beaten < 8L) has run and was a disappointing beaten favourite in a Newcastle bumper.

Checking through morning prices I don’t believe odds of less than 2/1 available for Talkonthestreet offer much value (the Hobbs/Johnson factor) especially as Be All Man (by Dubawi) represents form behind John Ferguson’s Population who is rated a superior horse to Sir Johnson. Additionally, Hobbs has failed to train a bumper winner at Warwick in 16 attempts (8 in first four) since 2001. Given that English bumpers are very often slowly-run affairs I would have a flat-bred sire over a dour national hunt stallion usually, especially on decent ground.
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 04 Dec 11 11:35
Great read Royal Academy.....  will watch with interest........I remember some years ago going through the bumper field with a fair good Amateur jockey and to his great annoyance I fancied a flat bred runner in the race .....as a through and through NH man he felt it was Barsteward breeding where bumpers were concerned  Laugh
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 04 Dec 11 20:18
Two informative runs from both Starkie and Talkonthestreet.

The Fairyhouse bumper saw money of some sort for six of the field including Starkie backed into 11/2 from 8's on course. Quietly ridden out the back he cruised up the inside turning for home in really eyecatching style and looked a serious proposition to win. He found little enough when asked to go on a furlong and a half down and was eventually beaten just over 14L into fifth. It was probably a decent bumper and one has to be happy with this first run under rules for De Bromhead's charge. A few question marks remain about his precise ability, ground preference, trip and sire but it wasn't a bad start to his career.

Talkonthestreet's bumper also looked a pretty competitive affair (they looked to go a good clip) and he failed by just a head to peg back Be All Man and has now run very well in two bumpers. Today was probably an improvement on his first start and he battled hard to overhaul the winner all the way up the straight. A winner in waiting.
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 06 Dec 11 22:57
Captain Moonman-2005 g Milan (Tim Vaughan)

Wed: Hexham (heavy) 12.50pm 3m 4yo+ maiden hurdle 11-00 Tom Scudamore


A glimpse at Captain Moonman’s form in three runs in 5yo maidens at the back-end of last year is enough to stir the interest of any point-to-point fan. All three runs were at Dromahane, on ground ranging from good to soft and in three progressive runs he finished 5th (won by Fernhurst Lad, winner of a Clonmel maiden hurdle), 3rd (won by Our Island and already a dual hurdling winner for none other than Tim Vaughan) and 1st (where he beat a horse, that needs no introduction, Mount Benbulben, by seven lengths: “stayed on well and won easily”).

{If this were Wikipedia I’d now invite editors to review the following pedigree and part-biography:}
Denis Fehan, who hails from the home of the great M.V.O’Brien, Churchtown, was the breeder of the very classy Nick Dundee (a seven-time winner out of Silent Run) who fell when sent off warm favourite for the 1999 Sun Alliance in the colours of Mrs. John Magnier.

One of Fehan's less salubrious mares was the 1988 Torus mare, Bridgeofallen, who was trained by Eugene O’Sullivan to win a mares’ maiden and be placed in a few chases. She has been reasonably proficient at stud with her best produce being Donie Dooley, a Be My Native winner of two hurdles and Lady Veronica (by Supreme Leader), winner of a Listowel bumper. She also bred two point winners (before Captain Moonman) and, if memory serves, many of this mares’ produce were initially associated with the redoubtable Donie O’Keeffe, the Buttevant publican who will always associated with the champion pony “The Minstrel” and his trainer son, Pat, who famously arrived with his entourage for his wedding on horseback!

Incidentally, when the “Captain” won his maiden his (then) trainer, Liam Fennessy, said: “This is a good type of a staying horse and fair play to Eugene O’Sullivan who bought him on my instructions at the 2009 Derby Sale,”. When you read my history of the dam (above) it is no surprise that O’Sullivan might have been interested in him in the first place.

Tim Vaughan is sending him on a reasonably long journey north to Hexham tomorrow where he has a decent record of 4 winners from 17 hurdling runners and Tom Scudamore rides. Vaughan is having a terrific season (20% strike-rate) and with 73 winners already on the board is well on track to beat last year’s highest-ever total of 91.

A recent stable-tour reported:
“He bolted up in a 17-runner maiden point in Ireland, beating Mount Benbulben, who has come out and won two bumpers and was sold for £250,000. He will probably start in a bumper around Christmas before we go novice hurdling. He’s another chasing type who will get 3m in time.”
I’m pleased to see him avoid bumpers as I don’t think he’s bred for that job. Tomorrow’s opposition looks weak enough and I will play if I get 5/2 or better (2 points win).
By:
Shotgun Willy
When: 06 Dec 11 23:05
DF didnt breed Nick Dundee though he had some of that family allright
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 08 Dec 11 21:42
In the absence of Captain Moonman, Soudain was the obvious winner of Wednesday's race for Gollings/Mercer but at evens wouldn't have been much interest to me. He had cost £54,000 after a Horse And Jockey win and the race cut up very badly. The win however does point to the hot streak that Steve Gollings is in at present (another winner today). Keith Mercer seems to be on a roll as well.

All That Remains-2005 g King’s Theatre (Steve Gollings)

Friday: Doncaster 1.00pm 4+ 2m3f novice hurdle 6, 10-12 Keith Mercer


National hunt pedigrees can be very often “hit and miss” (winners occasionally being attributable to the “power of prayer”) but that is definitely not the case for All That Remains. The dam, Morning Breeze (by Bigstone) was out of a half-sister to Irish Derby winner, Malacate, and having won over a mile at Listowel at three (listed placed at two) for Pat Flynn she was also a pretty decent hurdler for Tim Doyle winning three 2m hurdles and was Grade 2-placed. She is also a half-sister to four winning siblings of 18 races.

The mare retired in 2001 and her first three foals have all won in the jumping sphere. Hintsnallegations (2003 City Honours g) won two hurdles (20f & 21f) for David Michael Murphy, Queen Of Cool (2004 King’s Theatre m) has won three hurdles over middle-distances for Tim Doyle and, so far, All That Remains (a full brother to Queen Of Cool) has collected a maiden point (for Pat Doyle) and two bumpers for Steve Gollings. I note that Hintsnallegations managed to win over hurdles on his jumping debut having been second in two bumpers (from five starts).

All That Remains raced in points in the colours of her enthusiastic breeder Patrick O’Connor and the impressive Castletown-Geoghegan winner was subsequently sold to Steve Gollings’ principal supporter, Phil Martin, for £64,000 (also owns Soudain).

A spring campaign has already yielded two wins from three bumper starts and he tries his luck over hurdles tomorrow for the first time. Following wins at Fakenham (3rd, 4th & 5th have all won since) and Market Rasen (poor race), he ran well enough, carrying a 10lb penalty, in a Doncaster winners’ event (four of the horses around him have been running well) eventually finishing 10L fifth.

I expect this horse to run very well. Although bumper form is no guide I think its quite significant that horses beaten by All That Remains in bumpers that have subsequently done well over hurdles include: Alan King’s Dineur (RPR: 119), Henderson’s Kings Lodge (128) and Jimmy Quinn’s Distime (127). A performance in that range should be enough tomorrow (and we know he can jump from his point victory)

2 points win.
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 11 Dec 11 10:59
just never got a chance to post this on Friday night and it became less of an issue when the Lingfield meeting was lost yesterday but he's a horse I would like to see run over Christmas. I see that Monksland won and came in for huge support and the punters were happy to drive him odds-on. Noel Meade's comment beforehand of "We like him" wasn't giving much away yesterday in the Irish Field and falls well short of the four-letter verb needed if you were sending twelve red roses to your mistress.

Bobcatbilly-2006 g Overbury (Ian Williams)

Saturday: Lingfield (soft) 11.50am 2m3f110yds 4+ novice hurdle 5,10-12 C Huxley (3)


It’s been some time since I reviewed my notes on this Killeagh maiden winner in January and there have definitely been some very eye-catching developments since.

He is the first foal of a modest 2m5f handicap hurdle winner (1996 Executive Perk mare) for John O’Shea in 2003 out of an unraced Le Bavard half-sister to Indian Scout (1995 Phardante g) who has a very decent soft-ground middle-distance performer for Ben De Haan (four wins included a Grade 2 hurdle) and four other winners. My first surprise was in noticing that the dam’s second foal, by Beneficial, had been unlucky not to win his only point start but was a very heavily-backed successful bumper winner for Noel Meade on 5th November last. This horse is Monksland and he very could easily win his maiden hurdle at Navan at 12.15pm today.

Furthermore, the form of his maiden win has been significantly boosted by Analyse That (2l second) finishing second in a recent Wexford maiden hurdle but, more significantly, the third horse, Rev It Up, is looking a very decent prospect for Tim Vaughan following two hurdling wins.

When Bobcatbilly won his maiden his handler Roy Tector said: “This fellow was unlucky on his first run. Tom O’Brien (U.K.-based jockey) gave him a school for me two days ago and I think he should make a grand two-mile chaser.”

He’s had one run for Williams behind the very promising Simonsig at Ascot in November (finishing 20L 4th for a RPR of 98). The winner has since underlined his class but nothing else has run from the race. This was a nice run after a break of 10 months and he would probably have preferred softer conditions than “good”.
One of the most exciting things for me in racing is a good two-mile chaser and I will keep a very close eye on this fellow’s career.

*********************************************************************

As you know some national hunt horses can have pretty optimistic origins and I posted this earlier in the week on the bloodstock forum under the title "the triumph of hope........"

Following a nice run at Ballinaboola (4th) a couple of weeks ago Breens Boy landed a division of the 5yo maiden at Lisronagh over the weekend under Declan Hagan, brother of handler John. The horse was pulled up in his first start last March. I would be interested to know how they came to acquire him.

Some judges now think this son of Perre might be good enough for the track.

The Racing Post's rather brief pedigree note "Ninth foal; dam unraced" prompted me to do a little research.

Breens Boy's dam is a 1989 Good Thyne mare who was unraced and her only reported sibling is a 1991 half-sister by Buckley (Phantoms Girl) who was useless under rules and her sole claim to fame was a 30L second in a 1996  mares' maiden at Wexford for local Killinick trainer J J O'Connor.

The third dam (a 1982 Tanfirion mare) failed to win in a few spins on the track and the closest her line comes to a winner is a 1985 River Knight gelding who was second in two chases in 1991 for W H Tinning. Probably the highlight of this horse's career is that he was once trained by Monica Dickinson and ridden (once) by the "Brad".

You have to trace back to the fourth dam to find some winning performances.

Breens Boy's dam, Ringbeam has produced a dozen foals since 1997 (only three fillies) and ten consecutive sons or daughters have been by Pierre. (her first and most-recent foals were by Top Of The World and Primary respectively). Only one (a 2000 brother) has managed to race and he was hopeless between the flags and under rules.

It is some achievement to persevere with this family and it now looks as if there's a glimmer of hope that a mare who looked as if she should have been in the knacker's yard years ago may actually produce something useful.

Postscript: The trainer since commented that the horse "must have heavy ground" and they will target a maiden hurdle around Christmas.
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 11 Dec 11 11:06
I should have added this earlier:

I was a little disappointed with All That Remains run earlier although he wasn't beaten too far (14L) in 6th behind McCain's winning favourite Ebanour. He was noticeably weak in the market all morning (although time and again these pointers defy their odds) and some money came for him on-course when he tightened in to 13/2 (from 8’s). I thought his jumping was far from fluent and he seemed to have to make an extra effort when jumping virtually every flight.

As I am no bookies’ philanthropist there were perhaps a few factors that I overlooked in coming to the conclusion that this horse was a betting proposition: I am (unforgiveably) unaware of what record Gollings has in relation to hurdling debutants but I am now! Also, I note that since 2005 he has trained 23 hurdling runners at Doncaster and only one scored a the paltry price of 1/4 . Food for thought but if he brushes up on his jumping there’ll be good days ahead.
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 12 Dec 11 21:32
Captain Moonman-2005 g Milan (Tim Vaughan)
Originally……but pulled out (see my posting on 6th December):
Wed: Hexham (heavy) 12.50pm 3m 4yo+ maiden hurdle 11-00 Tom Scudamore

Tomorrow:
Tues: Folkestone (soft) 1.40pm 2m6f110yds 4yo+ maiden hurdle 11-00 R Johnson

Richard Johnson rides a hurdle winner for Tim Vaughan from every four rides and is a theoretical 3/1 chance on every mount. Allowing for the fact that Captain Moonman has some attractive collateral form on the pointing scene with horses since doing well under rules (Mount Benbulben, to name but one) he was also easily the best of these opponents when winning his Dromahane maiden (rated 89 to tomorrow’s likely favourite, Monturgeon, on 80 for example) and regardless of his performance tomorrow if he is allowed to start at attractive odds (make your own mind up) he should be worth an interest. I think the extra couple of furlongs should also suit compared to his aborted engagement last week.

*********************************************************************

As often happens in maiden and novices’ hurdles many ex-pointers lock horns regularly and another horse I like in this race tomorrow with an eye on the future is the ex-PJ Colville 6yo, Baladash, now trained by George Baker, name-dropper extraordinaire!

Colville described him as a future Welsh National horse when he won his maiden and he possesses a reasonable pedigree being a brother to two winners and his grandam won over two-and-a-half miles. As Colville gave €55,000 for him as a 4yo he must have been an exceptional looker/walker. In a sign of the times Baker picked him up for £30,000 as a maiden winner.

Following George Baker’s blog is an entrée to British society gatherings but amidst the social gossip are nuggets about Baldadash describing him as “promising”, “continuing his progress and giving us much hope” and “laying down a marker” (from his first bumper run).

*********************************************************************
       
The 2011 autumn season has already finished and all connections get a rest until after Christmas. My 2011 tracker is already full of promising youngsters but, compared to last season, they are slow to make their mark under rules and I think Dawn Commander has been the only young (four or five) maiden winner to score so far this autumn.

In throwing a hostage to fortune pedigree is what it’s all about in my research and the following “tags” point to a horse of some future quality and they all rank high on my radar:

Timmy Hyde
King’s Theatre
Mark Molloy
Instant Queen
Dromahane
Doncaster
£100,000

Winner: Moyaliff!
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 13 Dec 11 08:20
Royal Academy .........I would say that the reason for the Captain being a non runner at Hexham was nothing other than the big big doubt about the meeting going ahead.........also think you said it was a longish journey for the Captain hence didn't travel which in the circumstances was wise... interesting today.........
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 13 Dec 11 12:56
N/R agaiiiiiiiiin ???????????????
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 13 Dec 11 22:39
Hopefully Tim Vaughan is being ultra-careful with Captain Moonman and he certainly avoided very heavy ground today that saw an impressive winner who relished the conditions and stayed on for fun. The deteriorating ground was given as the official reason for his absence.

Baldadash was well beaten in 5th but attracted some on-course support. He will need better ground (60% of the runners pulled up)and I suspect George will be musing the future over a glass of port in Whitsbury Manor this evening. He does like to map out a long range plan for his horses.

Carrigmorna King-2006 g King’s Theatre (Philip Hobbs)

Wednesday: Newbury (soft) 2.00pm 4/6yo 2m3f novices’ hurdle 10-12 R Johnson


Colm Murphy’s father, Pat, always keeps a few pointers in his yard in the hope that if they prove good enough between the flags they will join his son’s academy in Gorey. Carrigmorna King proved good enough but the lure of the cheque-book proved too strong for his owner Tom Friel and the horse subsequently sold at Brightwells in May for £50,000 (he cost the Murphy’s €12,000 as a 3yo) and is now trained in Somerset by Philip Hobbs.

Carrigmora King won his maiden at Borris, Co. Carlow (good-firm) last April and the race has proven to be unexceptional save for the horse who started favourite on the day but fell four out. Book‘Em Danno was ridden by Derek O’Connor and trained by “Shark” Hanlon and has since won a bumper and two novice hurdles for Peter Bowen.

Carrigmorna King is the second foal out of an unraced Bob Back mare. Her first foal, a 2005 filly by Karinga Bay, was third last month in a mares’ maiden, her first start. The second dam won on the flat and over hurdles in France before having the final few runs of her career (unsuccessfully) for Eric McNamara. She has yet to breed a winner but her best known progeny was probably Mouse Morris’s Baily Bridge (2004 Spectrum g) who won a point-to-point. This family has strayed into the jumping scene in recent years as it’s a very strong flat pedigree back to the fourth dam Klarifi who bred some decent stakes performers.

In an October interview Philip Hobbs remarked: “A very nice prospect who won his only point-to-point last April, and we bought him the following month. He has a fair amount of pace but, as he’s five, we’ll probably send him over hurdles rather than starting off in a bumper. Ready to run and will do so when the rain arrives, and we’ll probably defer a return to fences until next season.”

Carrigmorna King made his debut at Newbury (good-soft) on 26th November in a Class C 2m1f novice hurdle and performed very well to finish 13L third behind Prospect Wells who has form to the highest novice standard this season. Carrigmorna was beaten a total of 13L, just 9L behind Paul Nicholl’s hurdling debutant All The Aces who was an extremely classy middle-distance flat performer (won Group 3 St Simon Stakes). (The form of Prospect Wells will be tested thirty five minutes earlier today by "good thing" Ericht who ran third behind Steps To Freedom and Prospect Wells in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in early November). The form of CK's race hasn’t been severely tested but was given a minor boost by Able Deputy (who finished 5th and 37L behind CK) when he ran third in Cheltenham event last weekend.

Philip Hobbs has the best novice seen this season in Fingal Bay who gave a year, seven pounds and five-length beating to tomorrow’s likely favourite, Polisky,recently. Polisky is trained by Paul Nicholls and looks useful but remains a maiden after four runs albeit he has been running in graded company. Nicky Nenderson’s Broadbackbob looks the other obvious danger but he’s conceding 7lbs to the two maidens.

This is a lovely contest to look forward to watching. Carrigmorna King needs to find 10lbs or so to go close and there are grounds for optimism that he may do this given his last run was his hurdling debut and tomorrow is a couple of furlongs longer.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 14 Dec 11 14:26
Talkonthestreet's bumper also looked a pretty competitive affair (they looked to go a good clip) and he failed by just a head to peg back Be All Man and has now run very well in two bumpers. Today was probably an improvement on his first start and he battled hard to overhaul the winner all the way up the straight. A winner in waiting.

The second that day at Dromahane (good) last April, just ran into 2nd. Let's not mention no names please Whoops
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 14 Dec 11 14:33
Presume you saw Highflyer pay 115k for Kaki De La Pree last Friday night (Savello was tops though at 215k)
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 14 Dec 11 21:54
We can take it that his jockey managed to weigh in today Catch Me Wink

I've been following the younger maidens very closely for the current 2011 autumn season. For my sins I have over seventy already recorded on my tracker: they won't all become of close interest but I will certainly keep a close eye on most of them for at least 12 months (Kaki De La Pree is 39 of 73 in chronological order on my list). As I have said here before probably my favourite pointer (who in fact failed to win his maiden) was Charles Byrne's Mask Of Darkness. You may say it's an impossible task second-guessing CB but I had the strong hint that the horse had oodles of ability from his maiden run and it was always likely to be a case of when, not if with him.

I mentioned with my reference to Moyaliff (above) that I love when I find the hook to pin my interest on whether it is a handler I respect, a winner coming from a stand-out pedigree, an interesting after-race comment, a trainer who knows the family well or some other arcane logic that only makes sense to my curious and suspicious mind.

With that in mind, it strikes me that Carrigmorna King ran very respectably today again on ground that was possibly too deep. There are few secrets with these horses from the big yards and I am not so sure I will be nominating too many more from these quarters in future as they are overbet when fancied and offer little value. Occasionally, catching them first-time-out is the trick when they may be priced for uncertainty. The smaller yards are more interesting to me because they have to extract maximum results from more meagre resources.

Nonetheless he looks a horse that will win races and he remains of interest.
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 14 Dec 11 22:39
Is Moyaliff a 4yr old ? owned by Timmy Hyde? by Kings Theatre outta Instant Queen ; has won at Dromahane and is to go for a 100k bumper in Doncaster/ or am I reading your end of post all wrong ?
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 14 Dec 11 22:54
TH: wealthy owner/breeder/trainer who "dabbles" in good store horses
KT: proper sire (of Moyaliff)
MM: shrewd handler doing well in 2011 and trained Instant Queen
IQ: landed me a right touch at Limerick some moons ago
Drom: where the winners come from
Donc: good sale
100k: suggests Moyaliff impressed some new judges

I hope I don’t have an aversion to picking winners but my original thoughts were to write up Pride Of The Artic to win the 3m maiden hurdle at Gowran tomorrow for Peter Fahey. First-time blinkers seemed to work the oracle on him last time and he would surely have won but for clouting the last and losing huge momentum, eventually filling third spot behind John Kiely’s extremely temperamental Mississippi River for whom the adjective “truculent” must have been created.

Pride Of The Artic is a Fahey home-bred, a bumper winner, has decent hurdling form and is the highest rated horse in the field. Punters will probably select Willie Mullins runner ahead of him in the market but I also am keen to see how Milano Magic and Castle Wings (fell in contention last time) perform (American Touch is no slouch either and hails from the sort of yard I love to follow).

Interesting to see what price Pride Of The Artic will start but if he’s 5/2 or better it would look generous.

Anyhow, instead I’ve chosen this more uncertain project………………….

Kilcrea-2007 g Definite Article (Jimmy Mangan)

Thursday: Gowran Park (soft) 1.05pm 4yo 2m maiden hurdle 11-7 Paddy Mangan (3)


Kilcrea grabbed the headlines when he won a youngsters maiden under Jamie Codd at Ballindenisk (good-yielding) last May for Mangan. A couple of maiden winners have graduated from the race but it looks as it it’s up to Kilcrea to advance the form under rules. He is owned by the same connections of Kilcrea Castle who was a nice horse for Pat Doyle. Mangan admitted to being surprised by the win as he believed he would need more time but predicted a “bright future” for him.

Predominantly, the family is a French flat line and Kilcrea’s dam was originally owned by Chryss O’Reilly and raced in France with no success. She was a half-sister to a 10f winner. Kilcrea is her fourth foal and is a full brother to a dual point winner in England. John Carr raced another half-brother but he wasn’t any good.

This is quite an average race tomorrow and it would be no surprise to see Kilcrea running well. The likely favourite, Tabhachtach, could possibly pay the form of Talkonthestreet another compliment. Mangan trained three winners over the past two months so he is ticking over but I cannot trace him training a hurdles winner at Gowran in ten years, a remark that similarly applies to his jockey son. My idea of the ideal campaign for this horse is a nice “sighter” tomorrow to be followed by a Limerick maiden hurdle on their usual atrocious ground conditions over Christmas.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 15 Dec 11 12:43
RA,
Also have a peek at my thread "The BEST HORSE race (you saw run) this weekend was" over on the Chelt.2012 forum Crazy
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 15 Dec 11 17:41
Re- Kilcrea first part done now for Limerick.........though the testing ground today could leave him needing a bit more time before he races.........
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 15 Dec 11 23:05
Pride Of The Artic squeezed home today at a very well-backed 6/4 and anyone getting the early's 5/2 did well. Given what I said about Jimmy Mangan's failure to train a hurdle winner at Gowran in ten years it was significant that second-placed Castle Wings was one of the market springers and just failed. He is a moral for a similar race soon.

Kilcrea ran exactly as I hoped and it was very eye-catching to me. Moderately fancied in a weak event (he was probably told to "win if you can but don't hit the horse") it suits me fine that the Racing Post are talking down the race in general. I think his turn is also very close.

Now for something for tomorrow:

Vinnie (V.T.) Keane was a Tipperary jockey who rode with some distinction for Brian Ellison for about five years until he retired, relatively young, in 2005. He is best known for his heart-breaking association with Ellison’s best-ever chaser, Latalomne, who was up there with the best in the two-mile chasing division.

Incredibly, Latalomne fell at the second-last fence when in the lead in the Queen Mother Champion Chase in both 2002 (won by Flagship Uberalles) and 2003 (won by Moscow Flyer) and had definite prospects of winning on both occasions. Keane lost the ride on Latalomne after the second incident but the horse never won for Ellison again. An experience that must still give the man nightmares.

He turned his hand to handling point-to-pointers on his return to County Waterford and he first came to my attention as the man that produced Noel Meade’s very classy Realt Dubh to win in 2008, followed by his full-brother, Realt Mor, in 2009 and his best young horse in 2010 was Ferris Bueller. I am hopeful that his incipient track star from 2011 will be Walkabout Creek even if he doesn't scale the heights. In short, Keane is a very good trainer and obviously has an eye for a good horse.

Walkabout Creek-2007 g Alderbrook (Steve Gollings)

Friday: Uttoxeter (soft) 3.30pm 4-6yo 2m bumper 11-04 B Hughes


He won a two and a half mile maiden at Liscarroll (good) in March on his only start and changed hands for £30,000 at Brightwells in April joining Steve Gollings in the ownership of Phil Martin who are associated with horses previously mentioned here in All That Remains and Soudain. The only development of note from the maiden (slowly-run) was the second horse winning his next start and joining Charlie Mann for £35,000.

After the race connections were very happy: "This is a very easy-going horse that won a schooling hurdle in Thurles recently and he will probably now go to the Brightwells sale at Cheltenham next month."


There’s plenty of speed on the dam-side of this family as the mother raced for Chryss O’Reilly (albeit with no success) but she is out of 1m4f winning half-sister to high-class 1m4f performer and sire Le Glorieux. Walkabout Creek is the mare’s 6th foal and is a half-brother to a flat winner from 9-12f.

Walkabout Creek ran at this track three weeks ago in a similar 2m bumper (good-soft) and finished 14L 6th/12 coming under pressure a fair way out but not getting too detached. There was interest in him in the market and you would certainly expect him to improve for the run. The Gollings stable is in rude health with three winners in the past week and I would expect support for this gelding tomorrow.

Even allowing for his eight month absence it was probably disappointing that he couldn’t go the pace in a class 6 bumper last time. More than half the runners are making their racecourse debuts tomorrow and, even though I expect he will be fancied, I will be more interested in this horse when he goes hurdling given what connections revealed about him after his maiden success.

No less than nine of my "trackers" turn up in three maiden hurdles tomorrow but it's just an impossible task to review them. I will watch the races with interest with an eye on the future.

I will post a brief note on one trained by one of my favourite tier two trainers tomorrow.
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 16 Dec 11 11:53
Andy Turnell, forever synonymous in my mind with his father's hurdler, Birds Nest, is well able to train winners and my best memory was backing Micheal Flips (the Lismore maiden winner) to win the Lanzarote hurdle in 2010.

He runs The Druids Nephew in the 2m6f maiden hurdle at Ascot today and early indications are that he will benefit from the run. Turnell didn't exactly give much away in his blog: "This is his first run for us."

He has a pedigree that I like-full of stayers and good hurdle winners and the sire King's Theatre is a big help. Cost £40,000 after two good runs in May for Colin Bowe and he finished in front of Wexford hurdle winner, Dawn Commander, on the first occasion.

Turnell has no winner on the board in 8 attempts over hurdles at Ascot but the horses do run well there with 5 finishing in the first three.

The race also features the most likely winner in Hadrian's Approach who is with Nicky Henderson following a vert impressive win at Dromahane in April but he will be short.

My preference is for the Turnell horse over the longer term as it should be far more fun!
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 16 Dec 11 13:40
Court Victory was robbed by the stewards in that race there at Uttoxeter........unlucky to have it taken away ...nice horse from the P2P fields.............
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 16 Dec 11 18:51
FYI

Barry Geraghty's SCHOOL REPORT.....
"The horse who stood out for me in work last Saturday morning was MASTER OF THE GAME who really pleased me. He won his last run in an Irish point in October and may well have won the previous one but for falling two out".
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 17 Dec 11 19:15
The Druid’s Nephew ran a nice race on his introduction behind two pretty decent hurdlers. There was also some market support for him at big prices. The Racing Post race-reader was of the opinion that hurdling will be a dalliance before he goes chasing but I’m not so sure as his pedigree suggests hurdling will be his forte.

Walkabout Creek also ran well. Probably improving from his first bumper start and on very demanding ground he was ultimately beaten by a useful newcomer and a horse with better bumper form. I wonder when will he go jumping now as I think I would be interested first-time out.

I couldn't quite decide to post a nomination or two last night and, in the event, nothing won although there were a few decent runs from horses that are generally more exposed than my usual nominees here (I have to keep some secrets!).

Tim Vaughan's novice chaser,Our Island, finally got his ground at Haydock today and almost won (2nd) when the eventually winner tried to pull himself up. My guess is that the ground can't be deep enough or the trip long enough for him and I think he could eventually have a mark of 145/150 when he wins some decent long-distance chases. He's in the Welsh National which is surely too near and 2012 is a more likely target. In the meantime, back him with confidence if he gets his optimum conditions.

Another favourite of mine, John Quinn's Moonlight Drive, ran way below expectations in the two and a half mile handicap hurdle, also at Haydock. I have no doubt he hated the ground. He was earmarked to go novice chasing earlier in the autumn and judging by the support for him today connections obviously feel he has a handicap mark (128-same as Our Island) that can be exploited on better ground.

I could write an essay on the history of Marble House's family-both equine and human-and I had this horse well-marked to win a decent handicap chase at big odds when he got his handicap mark. I was almost suicidal watching him give a Mullin's hotpot a run for his money at Clonmel last week at odds of 100/1 and he merely confirmed my high opinion of him running second to another Mullins' favourite at Fairyhouse earlier. (I half-hoped he might flop to get back on my "handicap blot" list with punters deciding Clonmel was a fluke). He clearly has ability and is now very close to winning for Seamus Neville who waits patiently for a nice horse to come along every few years. Limerick beckons I think provided if doesn't come too quick for him.

Finally, Dunroe Boy has bits and pieces of form to win a long-distance, low-grade handicap hurdle but didn't raise much of a gallop in the handicap chase at Fairyhouse earlier wearing a tongue-tie and blinkers. I'm probably wasting my time with him but if he does revert to hurdles he's capable of running well so I'll persevere a bit longer for now.
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 17 Dec 11 21:16
The graduates from the class of Autumn 2011 have been slow to get going under Rules this year and this is my first nomination from this quarter and it hails from the doyen of Holy Cross:

Brindisi Breeze-2006 g King’s Theatre (Lucinda Russell)

Sunday: Carlisle 3.30pm 4-6yo 2m1f bumper 11-00 Campbell Gillies


Brindisi Breeze won a division of the Loughrea (soft) 5yo maiden in October in a very fast time and was immediately nominated for a bumper by his trainer Pat Doyle (who launches most of the Gigginstown pointers). Doyle trained the horse for his neighbour, well-known former showjumper, Tommy Wade, who forged a very successful career with the diminutive Dundrum who was a Puissance horse of some renown. Wade himself would have been a Charles Byrnes-type chameleon when he trained a number of years ago.

By my favourite sire (recently deceased) he is the third foal of a French 2m2f/2m3f blacktype hurdles winner who has already bred Eyre Apparent (2005 Turgeon g) who won a 2m6f maiden hurdle for Dessie Hughes (also placed 5 times). The second dam won five races in France and Royal Auclair (Cathcart winner and second in the National) features under the third dam.

The horse was acquired privately by Lucinda Russell and has already had one spin on the track finishing second in a Musselburgh bumper (good) at a “my reputation precedes me” price of 11/10!

Russell also brought home Eyre Apparent with her from her Irish shopping spree.

Stable-note: Found for us by Tom Malone Brindisi Breeze is a most attractive type who posted a fast time (11 seconds faster than any other race that day) at the Loughrea point to point leading the analysis ''This will rank as one of the seasons best maiden winners without doubt as this was a huge performance. The time on the day given the going, was exceptional and furthermore the second and third are above average and proven in their own right. The winner has ample scope although not overbig and has a very big future at the highest level''  He arrived in October and was second in a photo in his first bumper. He may run again in a bumper before having a season novice hurdling.

Brindisi Breeze’s pedigree is chock-full of jumping winners and it’s probably pushing the boat out asking him to win a competitive winners’ bumper tomorrow. He was given an unofficial rating of just 92 for his Musselburgh exertions suggesting he has a lot to find tomorrow. The going is also likely to be very demanding which may tell against him in that he hasn’t raced on it before. QWuite amazingly, Russell has failed to train a bumper here over the past ten years and she has only a 6% strike-rate in this division.

There is money to be made when he goes jumping.

With former pointer Ashes House likely to start favourite it may well be another 2011 recruit, Swift Arrow (D McCain) who may give him most to do. Swift Arrow is a half-brother to two winning bumper horses and one that finished third. I would have been far more confident about his chances if McCain hadn't been quoted as saying: "I'll be happy if he's in the first three" not that I pay too much attention to trainers especially as he only has this horse a few weeks (bought for £20,000 at Brightwells).
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 17 Dec 11 22:23
I am sure RA that you are aware how difficult it is for winners to carry a penalty in bumpers in England .....its often done here with plenty success but for some reason its much harder in England........so even though Ashes was a clear and easy winner last time out over Manor Court (previously 7/22 to Shu Lewis) either of the two Brindisi Br. or McCains could win it ..........
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 18 Dec 11 21:13
Captain Moonman (Tim Vaughan)

Monday: Plumpton (forecast going: soft) 1.30pm 2m5f 4+ novice hurdle 10-12 R Johnson


Previously declared for 3m Hexham maiden hurdle (see 6/12) and 2m6f100yds Folkestone novice hurdle (see 12/12) and didn’t run on either occasion due to heavy conditions.

Richard Johnson and Tim Vaughan continue in tip-top form and Johnson drove north to Carlisle today to ride one horse (Ashes House) to victory in the bumper for Vaughan. Their record at Plumpton however is “patchy” and the combination has failed to land a hurdles victory there since April ’09 and nine consecutive losers include 8 horses that started at 3/1 or less including a 1/4 shot!

As there will be an obvious odds-on chance (highly-tried recent winner seeking to defy 7lb penalty) in the race it’s impossible to do anything other than watch the race particularly as Captain Moonman is likely to start second favourite. It also offers a chance to assess the horse without getting involved financially.


Now for something far more intriguing……………………

Celtic Twilight-2006 g Beneficial (Charlie Swan)

Monday Navan 2.25pm 2m6f 4+ 80-102 handicap hurdle (rated 85) 5, 10-09 David Casey


Celtic Twilight ran in three good quality maidens last winter before scoring at Kilfeacle on 16th January on soft-heavy ground. Master Of The Game was the moral victor of this race, falling 2 from home with the race at his mercy and, as pointed out by Catch Me ifyoucan is now with Nicky Henderson (at a cost of £78,000) having won his next start a few weeks ago.

Celtic Twilight was beaten by Iheardu (a winner of two chases for Neil Mulholland), Hard To Swallow (bumper winner and promising hurdler) and Micks (a favourite hurdler who eventually landed a nice touch a few weeks ago). His maiden win saw him beat a horse now rated 109 and the third home is rated 100+. This is all relevant to Celtic Twilight’s current lowly rating of just 85.

In the space of 26 days last March the horse had his obligatory three runs in maiden hurdles and one of these, over the course, was fairly eye-catching over a completely inadequate trip. His only subsequent start in handicap company was at Limerick in May on, probably, unsuitable good ground and he finished 11th at 14/1 having been prominent to the entrance to the straight on a mark 3lbs higher than tomorrow.

Many winners have come from the first two maidens he contested and the Limerick handicap boasts five subsequent winners including the 7th (won off 88), 10th (won off 95) and 13th (won off 85).

The ground should be perfect tomorrow and it will be surprising if he’s not fancied because Swan has done a superb handicapping job with him. This horse is a winner waiting to happen and Swan’s horses are flying at present.

Anticipating plenty of money for him a possible concern is his absence from the track for almost six months and there is no doubt that novices in handicaps can take a run or two to find their feet (witness Micks as a recent example) but with this horse it’s only a matter of time.
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 18 Dec 11 22:08
Referring to the Carlisle bumper today RA that Brindisi Breeze was a non runner and in relation to Swift Arrow imho McCains stable is out of form at the moment.........Ashse carried the penalty and must be a nice enough prospect......I agree with you in that Charlie Swans string are in good order and have been for some time....will be watching that 2morro...........
By:
boltonsevs
When: 19 Dec 11 08:00
Really enjoyable thread with concise analysis brilliant
By:
Patsy Indy Cline
When: 19 Dec 11 09:43
This thread is the reason why people who know come back to the Irish forum occasionally.
Well argued and educational analysis which is a pleasure to read.
The man knows his horses and can write.
A novel departure from the recent trends on a forum which used to stand out from the rest but, sadly, no longer does.
I look forward to the next installment.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 19 Dec 11 11:04
This thread is the reason why people who know STAY (and ignore the children) ! Devil
By:
kavvie
When: 19 Dec 11 12:15
yes true.no better place to debate and share info and views.just ignore the riff raff and dont engage with them
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