Think i know who they are already

Christmas is not a period I manage to have much time for racing (spending some time away from home) and I am struggling to catch up on the vast number of my “stable” that have run over the past ten days. 

As I invariably find at the holiday and festival time, if you have a steely mentality and a penchant for level-stakes betting on all qualifiers there is usually a profit to be had with certain horses inevitably requiring a leap of faith. Over the past three days of action thirty five qualifiers from my 2010/11 list of winners ran in Ireland and the U.K. with seven winners at prices of 9/2 (Godsmejudge-with two shorter-priced rivals in second and third), 4/1 (Clonbanan Lad-to beat my nap Kilcrea!), 9/4 (Mount Colah), 5/4 (Village Vic-bound for the very top), 20/1 (Friendly Society-this may have been one that got away as he was on my "dark horse" listing regrettably), 16/1 (My Murphy-requiring a bet to beat three more fancied opponents) and W.P.’s Make Your Mark at 4/5. Following the more fancied runners only (5/1 or less at S.P.) yielded 5 winners from 15 selections for a modest 1.8 points profit).

Update on some recent performances:

Captain Moonman (Tim Vaughan): eventually was allowed line up at Plumpton on 19th December on ground that was almost certainly unsuitable-described as “soft and tiring” by jockeys on the day. Remains of interest on better ground.

Celtic Twilight (Charlie Swan): has now run twice since I nominated him as a potential handicap hurdle blot. His first spin at Navan was deplorable and he never looked capable of raising a gallop being inevitably pulled up. It looked for all the world as if this was his first gallop in months. A second run at Limerick was a definite improvement even though he was eventually a virtually tailed-off 11th/18. He ran far more prominently to about four from home offering a little encouragement for the future. Breeding-wise his ideal trip will be greater than 2m4f and I note with some degree of interest that Swan’s father, Donald (Captain to you!), trained the dam to place six times over hurdles eventually winning a point-to-point in 1996.

Kilcrea (J Mangan): Jimmy Mangan tried his best to provide his daughter, Jane, with a Christmas winner in the shape of Kilcrea in the St. Stephen’s Day Limerick bumper. Well-backed to do so, they were unlucky to catch the Mikey O’Connor tartar in the shape of Clonbanan Lad (winner of a Boulta maiden in November) who looks a nice horse. One way or another Kilcrea will be winning before very long as he finished 15L clear of the third.

Post-script: I did note that Castle Wings looked a “moral” for Mangan following a smashing run at Gowran two weeks ago and he duly collected the maiden hurdle on the same day at odds of 15/8.

Our Island (Tim Vaughan): connections seemed to have been surprised that Our Island made the cut for the Welsh National and despite concerns that he’d had a tough race only ten days previously he was well backed into 10/1 (from a best price of 22/1) to give Welshman Vaughan an appropriate winner on the day. His finishing position of sixth was no disgrace and I remain keen on him for the longer term. He’d be a gorgeous horse to be fancying at the big spring meetings if only the ground came up deep.

Bobcatbilly (Ian Williams): (see 11-Dec) ran at Towcester on 26th December in his second novices’ hurdle finishing third behind a Henderson favourite. He was dropped back in trip to two miles with connections apparently suggesting that he will need three miles to show his best. It’s all a little puzzling for the moment given the mixed messages emanating from current and former connections (three-miler versus two-miler!).

I will review the qualifiers from the 2011 autumn season overnight and post a summary later on. Even though Clonbanan Lad was a recent winner between the flags he had found his way onto my lists previously by virtue of some decent placed performances last spring.

There are also a host of interesting runners tomorrow and I hope to nominate some worth noting before racing starts. It includes two mares, one of which looks to have a cracking chance tomorrow and the other looks to be a slow-burner from a trainer I like.

Andunowhat was a little uneasy in the market today with both the winner, Oscars Business, and Colin Bowe’s runner-up, Glibin, fancied and running according to their market positions. Walsh’s horse ran a respectable third and was noticeably closing on the runner-up approaching the line having been momentarily outpaced turning for home. Given her stout pedigree and her three winning siblings all enjoying their best hurdling form over trips in excess of two-and-a-half miles it probably makes sense to step her up next time when she is unlikely to meet an opponent of Oscars Business’s calibre.  She also now qualifies for a mark and the path her very shrewd handler takes with her will be interesting. Glibin had an official mark coming into today’s race of 99 which looks very competitive in light of her form in recent weeks. Both horses will surely win before too long. It also hasn’t escaped my notice that Jetson did his bit today to frank the form of Andunowhat’s first run at Cork in early November when she finished 12L third to Harrington’s winner.

My “sleeper” was Tom Cooper’s Our Girl Lucy and she showed far more over hurdles today at Limerick than in the past. Having won a mares’ maiden and winners’ event last spring her trainer said: “This is a good staying mare who is improving all the time. She made light of the (soft) conditions out there today and will win plenty of races on the track.”

She started favourite for the Cork mares’ point-to-point bumper in Cork in late April finishing third on likely unsuitable good ground and didn’t race again until October. Two spins in maiden hurdles (she had one previous hurdling start in 2010) saw her earn an undemanding mark of 91 and prior to today she had two undistinguished runs in handicap hurdle company when completely unfancied. She hasn’t run completely dismally in these races and has been prominent in them at some stage or other, something I look for when assessing latent ability. She travelled well today for Philip Enright-who rides Limerick very well-and threatened to win as they entered the straight. I suspect that the 2m2f was on the short side for her and upped in trip and with Cooper hitting a better vein of form (he’s winnerless since October with over two dozen consecutive losers) she should repay my faith, possibly in the not too distant future.

In brief today also:

Brindisi Breeze (Lucinda Russell), mentioned on 17-Dec, got off the mark first time over hurdles at Kelso and beating the unlucky former point winner, Netminder, who started at 33/1.
The maiden hurdle at Doncaster was informative with Cross Of Honour running a cracker and, for the second time, Dramatic Duke looked as if it’s all about acquiring a handicap mark for Jonjo. Shocking Times, from the same track’s novice hurdle also ran very well on his debut for Charlie Mann and is likely to feature in future bulletins. Finally, Red Devil Boys, allowed to start at a generous 4/1, ran very well in the Doncaster bumper and will surely win before long for John Ferguson.

I hope to post something on up to three runners that catch my eye tomorrow later, party season permitting.

Happy New Year Royal Academy and great posts as per usual.........

1st  Black Thunder (FR) 10-10 (Morning price: 1/1 10/11) SP 6/4fav Tote Win £2.30 Place £1.10 P F Nicholls D A Jacob
in touch, headway 3 out, challenged next, led narrowly last, ridden and hung left final 110 yards, held on near finish

2nd nk Captain Sunshine (GB) 10-10 (Mrs Julien Turner) (Morning price: 11/2 5/1 9/2) SP 6/1   Place £2.40  Miss E C Lavelle Jack Doyle
mid-division, headway and in touch on wide outside after 5th, challenged and every chance 2 out, soon ridden, kept on under pressure to chase winner final 50 yards, just held

3rd ¾L Talkonthestreet (IRE) 10-10 (Mrs Diana L Whateley) (Morning price: 8/1 9/1 13/2 6/1 5/1) SP 7/2   Place £1.50  P J Hobbs R Johnson
tracked leader, led narrowly before 2 out, headed narrowly last, ridden when not much room and switched right final 110 yards, no extra when lost 2nd towards finish

4th 16L Mister Dillon (GB) 10-11 (Elite Racing Club) (Morning price: 3/1 10/3 4/1 9/2 5/1) SP 7/2 N J Henderson Jeremiah McGrath(5)
tracked leaders, driven after 3 out, kept on same pace approaching next, ridden and no impression before last

5th 7L De Faoithesdream (IRE) 10-10 (Mr R Abbott & Mr M Stavrou)(Morning price: 25/1 28/1 33/1) SP 50/1   Evan Williams Paul Moloney
took keen, led, still raced keenly after 3 out until headed before next, weakened before last

Carrigmorna King opened up 5/2 went to 11/4 back to 5/2 into 9/4 and 2's at the off .....was 4/5 w/o fav.....and came into 4/6 w/o fav shocking price w/o............ and McCoy touched 5/4 and was into 11/10 to 6/5 on Zama Zama......Carrig ran a fine race and the winner cost a bomb and could be decent......

Rapid Heartbeat-2006 m Old Vic (Colin Bowe)

Tramore (soft) 12.40pm 4yo+ 2m maiden hurdle 5, 10-13 A J McNamara

Rapid Heartbeat has a standout pedigree being closely related to Voler La Vedette (top class hurdling mare who has now two bumpers and eleven hurdle races) and a half-sister to Hennessy (by Presenting) who was an a very good stayer (won 3m6f Sandown Gold Cup chase) for Carl Llewellyn in 2009 (and is definitely not standing in the stallion paddocks in Ashford Stud!). The dam, by Roselier, ran a couple of times without success but she is a half-sister to a plethora of dual-purpose winners including Raise Your Heart and Bolino Star. An excellent pedigree and with VLV having already secured 7 wins by Christmas 2009 she certainly seems to have been picked up for a song at €27,000 at the 2010 Derby Sale. It’s often said that good foundation broodmare prospects are rare to find in the sales ring and this is probably a decent exception to the rule. Evidence of the truism “invest in a recession” perhaps.

Fast brothers and sisters do not an athlete make (ask Seb Coe’s librarian brother) but at least Rapid Heartbeat has won her only point-to-point when scoring at Borris House last April in impressive fashion and obliged as 6/4 favourite to boot. It may be significant that the ground was officially good-firm on a day that also saw Carrigmorna King score.

She was trained by Colin Bowe whose handling of fillies is exceptional (possibly a trend of the economic climate whereby selling on winning mares can prove difficult) and he is a prime example of trying to identify potential trendsetters before they come to the public’s attention and hence the betting market.

Rapid Heartbeat’s two efforts on the track have been forgettable although she did start a very short 7/2 (from 6’s) to win a 2m Wexford (good-firm) bumper on her racecourse bow. That plan was immediately abandoned but her only other start, a 2.5m Punchestown maiden hurdle two weeks ago on heavy ground, again saw her well beaten under one of my favourite jockeys Tom Doyle.

She wears a tongue-strap today and the question to be posed, assuming she has ability, is: given her outstanding breeding prospects do you attempt to win at all costs (any time, any place) or take the betting and handicapping angle into account? I’m possibly spouting a lot of useless verbiage about Sebastian Coe’s less speedy sibling but only time will tell.

I will be very disappointed if Marble House doesn’t win at Tramore today. He has the form in the book and there will be many butterflies around the Neville’s today as it’s 43 runners and 936 days since they trained a track winner. “Cold lists” don’t apply in cases like these in my view and their patience should pay off. It’s not exactly a perfect example of how to campaign, train and place a horse (like struggling on to be second to a Grade I horse) but, hopefully, winning a decent pot in months to come will make up for that.

Viaduct Joey (Tom Doyle) stills looks well-handicapped to me off a mark of 118 for a small stable in form and is a horse that seems to bounce on alternate runs. 8/1 looks fair and he should be thereabouts again.

Other horses appearing on my radar are Areuwitmenow (Warwick 1.10pm) and the pair of Avenging Ace and Slick Operator who both run in the 12.10pm at Uttoxeter.

Thanks NORN, everything I'm fancying lately is running well but just not managing to stick their head in front but as I don't play at short odds I can only imagine the pain it causes to punters.

Avenging Ace probably traded long odds-on to win the opener at Uttoxerer but was outstayed on very heavy ground after the last by the marginal favourite. Trevor Hemmings 32k investment in Slick Operator looks worthless now.

Jay, Definite Memories won a division of a mares' maiden in Boulta that has thrown up some very useful winners in recent years including Bluesea Cracker (Irish national) and Colin Bowe's duo Askanna and Our Victoria. Most mares' maidens are forgettable events.

She's a half-sister to three French flat winners; the dam (Darshaan) raced in France and bred a few foals before being sold in Ireland. The interesting nugget from the page is Puntal, half-brother to the dam, won his biggest-ever race, the Sandown Gold Cup, on the only occasion McCoy didn't ride him-he was claimed to ride Pipe's other horse Stormez.

Definite Memories was trained by former jockey Pat Cloke these are some of my notes:

Former amateur ride Pat Cloke (based outside The Ballagh in Co. Wexford) was understandably predicting a bright future for his charge following her scintillating success: “I’ve had Feathard Lady (unbeaten seven-time winner including 2005 Christmas Hurdle), Gemini Lucy (six-time Graded chase winner for J Harrington) and Sunami Storm (dual hurdle and chase winner for W Mullins) in my yard at some stage and I think that this one will be every bit as good.

“We will give her a month off now and will probably go for a bumper in the spring.”

She recently made £61,000 at the Brightwells December sale and is now with Venetia Williams I believe.

Incidentally, when Bowe won a division of each race in 2009 with Askanna and Our Victoria he sent them into winners' events before winning bumpers with them. He also won a 2011 division with the Oscar mare, Mrs Trair, but rather than going traditional route she ran 4th in the Limerick mares' bumper earlier this week. I would have preferred her to win again before going to the racecourse but I do think she has a bright future also.

The Boulta going was officially soft-heavy.

Carrigeen Lechuga 2005 m Beneficial ( R H Lalor)

Cork (soft-heavy) 5yo+ 2m4f mares’ beginners’ chase 7, 11-07 J Lalor (7)

**** Lalor has been deriving endless pleasure for the past three decades from the family of the foundation mare Carrigeensharragh and every jumping aficionado will be very familiar with the “Carrigeen” name either under rules or between the flags.

Carrigeensharragh was a very decent staying chaser and she has bred Carrigeen Kerria (winner of a hurdle and three staying chases and dam of multiple winners Carrigeen Victor & Carrigeen Kalmia), Carrigeen Acer (dam of Chicago Grey) and Carrigeen Lily (winner of four chases and dam of Carrigeen Lechuga-today’s runner-she has also bred a Saddlers’ Hall point winning mare). One of the toughest and most resilient jumping pages in the book.

Carrigeen Lechuga made her debut in points last October and following a promising runner-up finish she subsequently landed five consecutive points on ground ranging from good to soft-heavy. Her trainer has suggested that “tacky” ground may be unsuitable and that the plan was always to go chasing in the autumn of 2011. She has shown good ability for a mare and the pinnacle of her season was beating the boys “easily” in a Horse-and-Jockey Open in March. The geldings conceded 5lbs to her on that occasion. She won the 2011 “Champion Mare” award (jointly with Make It Better) being unofficially rated 111, the highest ratings achieved by mares since the award was first given in 2008.

Her jockey on every occasion was trainer’s daughter, Liz, and what a season this mare gave her as it helped her become champion lady rider in 2010/11 having shared the top spot the two previous years. The point-to-point race reporters have been raving about her in recent months suggesting she might be the best ever mare to race between the flags and nominate her for (black type) success at the highest level on the track.

On the evidence to date she has some way to go to come close to those aspirations but, coming from these quarters, it’s early days yet.

By way of background the Champion Mare award was first introduced at the close of the 2007/08 season and the winners have been (with private ratings):

2008: Aboo Who 107 (Denise Foster): won a Thurles hunter chase in January 2008 and achived a highest official rating (OR) over fences of 102 (unplaced in two handicaps).

2009: Media Queen 104: won two summer handicap hurdles in 2009 off marks of 88 & 92 for Donie Hassett looking well-handicapped, to say the least.

2010: Burnt Oil Babe 102: has won three handicap chases for Willie Murphy off  85, 97 & 108 (again looking attractively-handicapped relative to point-to-point achievements).

2011: Carrigeen Lechuga and Make It Better (111 each): Make It Better, trained by Mikey O’Connor won her only hunter chase start last April and glories on a hurdling mark of just 89 earned in summer 2010. Can you spot the trend?

Carrigeen Lechuga has yet to be given an official mark but has run reasonably well in three non-handicap chases.

The best horse that Carrigeen Lechuga met in her 7 point runs was Jacksons Lady (now rated 120 over hurdles for Philip Dempsey) who beat her 1.5L into second on her debut in October 2010. Anything she subsequently beat in any of her 5 wins would struggle to achieve a mark over 100 with the exception of Make It Better (joint champion) whom she beat 16L on one occasion and Castrlerock Rose who was second in a Limerick maiden hurdle recently.

She has had three spins over fences so far and her debuting last-fence fall behind Paddy Power winner, Cross Appeal, doesn’t look too bad now considering she seemed to be closing (from well off the pace) behind the front two at the time. This was at Punchestown over 2m4f. Two further runs over three miles have been less encouraging albeit her 36L Thurles 3rd was behind yesterday’s Tramore winner Apt Approach.

This would have been Liz Lalor’s anticipatory ride all season and she must be very disappointed that, because of injury, she has missed both today’s ride and her last appearance at Navan. Her younger brother, John, has stepped into the breach and has yet to ride a winner on the track (from 10 rides) although he rode his first ever winner at Lisronagh a couple of weeks ago.

She steps back into mares’ only company today and it’s a big day for the Lalor’s, especially the young, “chalk” jockey. She needs to step up on recent runs and faces mares with better form than her in the book. I’m sure she’s being closely watched every time she runs and is clearly fancied today from early betting moves.

You will know I would far prefer her to be completely unexposed before she qualifies for handicaps but her few runs to date are already indicating a mark of 110-115 which means she will need to start improving (not at all out of the question) to land  some decent pots. Those prepared to back her today at odds under 4/1 are very brave when you line up her pilot against today’s professional rivals.

Good luck to all concerned today although I will harbour my own thoughts on what I would consider “progress”.

any thoughts on Dunraven Prince runs tomorrow for A King, last race in southwell.....excellent thread RoyalAcademy

hats off great write up royalacademy,really enjoyed it

Alan King on ATR said he very happy with Dunraven Prince and he thinks he could be dacent..... said he hadn't heard anything about JonJoe's but his own is a nice horse.....2/1 could be an ok price certainly wouldn't be laying it after Kingy..... but sher we know trainers....

Haven't seen a replay but not surprised that Dunraven Prince was well held. I don't have the stats but I imagine Alderbrooks record in bumpers is pretty poor. The horse will probably be able ton win over extended trips in time when it finds it's level.

Theres a very interesting race in Ludlow tomoro which features a horse mentioned in the opening post of the thread belonging to Paul Webber. It also features a potentially very useful looking horse called Persian Snow who I would expect to win. I'm sure RA will have his own views on the race.

If ya want to finish up in john o gods with the rest of them......then keep following the tools on this thread.......all overhyped trash.....one or two good ones out of about 1000 horses given a mention.....keep up the good work lads.....its what the forum is all about......

Alderbrook last 356 runs produced 26 winners

I think the earlier poster misses the purpose of RoyalAcademys efforts, it would seem to me it is not to direct you to back of lay any given horse, but to give you valuble information with which to draw a conclusion of your own.
Excellent stuff and I hope he keeps it going.

Sedgefield 12.40 4+ 2m4f novices’ hurdle 7,11-06 Brian Hughes

Steve Gollings runs All That Remains (see 8-Dec) over hurdles for second time at Sedgefield today (soft going and very windy) and he is obviously fancied from early betting moves (3’s into 9/4).

The horses that ran 3rd and 4th from his debut run at Doncaster have not boosted the form in the interim, running to a level in the low 100’s, and improvement is needed for him to challenge the favourite who has to defy a 7lb penalty for winning at Plumpton.

If he can translate his standard of form from bumpers to hurdles he’d easily have the winning of this but his first start over hurdles was less than stellar and I don’t like the fact that the placed horses have not progressed.

They are racing for a pot of just £2,600 and the economics of running close to your optimum level in novices’ hurdles is something that is difficult to reconcile unless connections have a decent plan mapped out for the horse-something I doubt.

The closer I look at these conditions’ hurdles in England the more confused I become, particularly where you are scratching at short odds in low-class grades.

This is a must read thread,very informative.
RoyalAcademy you can`t write the docket out for them,just provide them with the facts,figures and your own considered opinion,they must make the final decision themselves.
Allduckornodinner contributions are excellent and ye make a fine double act.

In the words of the Racing Post reporter No Loose Change ran well in third today but this was scant consolation if you punted him on-course at 6/4 and 5/4.

He was beaten by a horse that had recently returned from a tendon-injury lay-off of two years and a former inmate from Joe Murphy’s Fethard yard that won a Thurles maiden hurdle this time last year.

The winner obviously has a touch of class having run 5th in the 2008 Triumph and 4th in the 2009 Coral off 138 (128 today) but it looks like some achievement for David Pipe to have him back in this form. The ex-Murphy horse, The Pier, raced off 122 which seems to be 4lbs higher than his last Irish mark-something not uncommon with the English handicapper.

A little 3/1, mostly 5/2, was available in the morning and No Loose Change traded at 1.44 in running looking to be going best turning into the straight. As we see time and again, punters have blind faith in the top trainers and starting prices are just silly. If this horse hailed from unfashionable quarters you might think he would be worth following on his next few runs but with P Nicholls as the trainer I’m just not so sure although he’ll surely win now before too long.

Ordinarily I steer well clear of the top stables but this year all the promising pointers seem to be concentrated in a few hands.

Three other horses interested me on Saturday and they ran with contrasting fortunes.

John Halley is in the very happy (if not indeed serendipitous) situation to be able to combine his racing hobby with that of chief vet in Ballydoyle. He’s been training pointers successfully for years (Pandorama being one of his more notable achievements) but in more recent times has acquired a restricted licence and trains a few every year for the track. I must admit it looked a strange decision to run Bulletproof against the Mullins hotpot in the bumper at Thurles given that the horse still needs a third run over hurdles to be handicapped. It will happen in time no doubt. He has shown glimpses of form in the past and may well win a hurdle race possibly on better ground.

Bulletproof is by the ex-Godolphin horse, Wareed, who will be up against it to make his mark (his first crop are now five-year-olds) and I will give you a brief summary of my research on this sire shortly. Incidentally, I am also interested to see how Paddy Kinsella’s ex-Frenchy Derby winner, Darsi, will perform with his first four-year-olds in 2012. It must be increasingly difficult in a compressed market for smaller operations to compete against the dominant players although it was probably always thus.

Following the running of the 2010 5&6yo maiden at Kilsheelan in 2010 I ran a line through the winner on the basis of very unpromising runs on the track prior to his points win. How wrong can you be! Seamus Roche’s, Jim Will Fix It, quickly established himself as a horse of great ability and was soon a double bumper and hurdle winner and can’t be far off breaking his duck over fences following two nice, recent runs. It was coincidental that the 2011 winner, John Nallen’s Minella Special, also had poor track form prior to winning at the Tipperary venue a few weeks back and his handicap mark was just 88 (although he had managed a Downpatrick third in a 2m7f handicap hurdle on good-firm ground in August). He has since changed hands privately and is with Paul Henderson in the U.K. a trainer with whom I am unfamiliar but who’s been training for four seasons or so. Henderson ran Minella Special in a Wincanton handicap hurdle on Saturday and my reluctance to nominate him in advance was on account of the extra 12lbs the English handicapper awarded him. If this practice is common for low-grade Irish-qualified handicappers I am unsure but perhaps the point win was (unfairly) also accounted for. In any event, the horse was quietly fancied and from morning prices of 12’s he started at 8/1 and ran a very nice race over two miles (soft) to be second to the warm favourite (and 16L clear of the third). What a certainty he’d have been off 88! In both instances mentioned it seems that the English handicapper’s decision to award extra poundage was accurate if arbitrary.

To finish on a more positive note I mention on 29-Dec that Glibin “will surely win before too long” and she collected the mares’ maiden hurdle for Colin Bowe at Thurles at a pretty realistic 7/2. I have no doubt if she were trained by Willie Mullins that she’d have gone off far, far shorter.