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A few random thoughts (forgive me if there's logic flaws) on why I generally fail as a punter even though I have unearthed many, many winners over the last few years when I decided I would treat my "hobby" more seriously i.e. give it more of my leisure time:
Five examples of horses I had selected for medium term support (and seriously fancied to win against most opposition)and somehow failed to cash in on over recent years were: CADUCEUS on his bumper debut, SOLE POWER in the Nunthorpe and FERRIS BUELLER on his maiden hurdle win (in recent seasons) and RUN WITH THE WIND and LA COLLINA this year-all at huge prices. All perfectly illustrate my successful contrarian selection approach to betting yet, even though I prove to myself year-in, year-out that I can do it I fail consistently to back them. The number of bets I would make would be small so I THINK I would be well in profit. (I had a horse on my radar since 2010 that ran as a rag last week at odds of 150/1+. He jumped the last upsides and was only run out of it by two horses close to the line paying a decent place here. I had "tipped" the horse to friend and he thanked me profusely for the tip-I hadn't a sous on it as usual!) Why? 1. Once one makes the selection you are "bound" to follow it and somehow I rail against the setting of "rules" (the gambler is far more flighty and doesn't like order) 2. I have instilled in myself the discipline NOT to bet but somehow havent yet managed to instil in myself the (rather boring?) strategy of following simple rules to have a bet. 3, As an aside, I would hate the notion of taking a tip or, say, paying for a tip because I know I can find winning outsiders that i don't have to share with the masses. 3. I have never really set aside a bank so when I bet I can think I may be squandering a benefit for a family member etc especially now that cash isnt as easy to come by as in the past 4. I hate losing and if you're not properly organised this can be a huge deterrent to betting 5. I often remark that if I were "managing" the funds of third parties I would most likely be a very successful trader 6. I have never had the stomach to record all my losses even if I havent gambled much in recent times I probably need something like a betting partner where I bring the winners and he/she brings the betting discipline. Everyone will have different stories........... |
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Kavvie i think you picked me up wrong. Price matters of course, what i was trying to put across that in terms of my priorities price is nowhere compared to discipline but when i say discipline i mean that I rarely back under 2/1 unless its for big money. Never back odds on only on track. Majority of bets are between 2/1 and 7/2 never go higher than that unless its a big e/w on the golf.
Price of course matters, but its only relevant in the long term if your disipline is basically not in doubt. The difference between getting 4.6 on here for Tiger Woods and 3/1 on Tiger Woods in Powers is nothing as I kept to my game plan and have no lost any winnings where if I had money in Betfair(winnings) I would do some bet i had not thought true and more than likely lose. |
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fair enough..you seem fairly tuned into the game..its just how you phrased it..yea most times its better at to take a slightly shorter price in pp or whoever as its guaranteed etc..
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Kavvie the main reason i bet with PP is there concessions, at times they are outrageous good.
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they are the best out there for sure..the ruby enhancement must be costing them a fortune...and they arnt afraid to take abet anymore..i seem a guy having 5k the other day on a yoke at 6/4...no bother..and it won!
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One festive tip.
Just because there is plenty of racing makes it more likely they will be very false results. Concentrate on Leapardstown and maybe a Graded Races at Limerick. If English Racing is your thing then Kempton. |